Keep your eye on: the Premiership play-offs

Here at Whiff of Cordite, we are self-proclaimed (and proud) rugby nerds. And in addition to Red Dwarf and Cheesy Wotsits, nerds love numbers. So let us look at the Premiership play-offs by numbers:

Leicester vs Northampton

The last 3 regular season games between the sides at Welford Road have had remarkably similar scorelines:
2010-11 Leicester 27-16 Northampton
2009-10 Leicester 29-15 Northampton
2008-09 Leicester 29-19 Northampton

The Tigers home record this season is daunting, with 9 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. The visitors have a respectable away record, winning 6 and losing 5 of their 11 games on the road.

Leicester have made the play-offs every year for the last 5 years … and won every time, with 4 of those victories coming at home. The Saints have been here once before, losing last year to Saracens (at home).

Saracens vs Gloucester

Saracens have won the last 2 regular season games at home against Gloucester (including a win just 3 weeks ago), but Gloucester have recent experience of a victorious trip to Watford:
2010-11 Saracens 35-12 Gloucester
2009-10 Saracens 19-16 Gloucester
2008-09 Saracens 21-25 Gloucester

Saracens have the best home record in the league this year, winning 10 matches and losing just 1. Gloucester, on the other hand, have the poorest away record of any of the semi-finalists, winning just 3 games on the road this season.

Both sides have won 1 and lost 1 of their 2 play-off semi-final appearances in last 5 seasons. Gloucester’s victory came against Saracens at Kingsholm in 2007 on a scoreline of …. 50-9!

by whiffofcordite on May 10, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Gloucester, Leicester, Northampton, Premiership, Saracens

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 10, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/05/10/keep-your-eye-on-the-premiership-play-offs/

Top of the Flops

All the silverware is still up for grabs, but for a bunch of teams, the season is already at an end. No shame in the performances of the likes of Treviso, who achieved their aim of respect at home in the Magners, or Exeter, who stayed well clear of relegation in the Premiership, but a bunch of teams will be taking home a sorry looking report card to their parents…

Glasgow Warriors
11th in Magners, 3rd in group in HEC
Having been fired to third in last season’s ML by Dan Parks’ boot and the exuberant Killer B’s, this was a depressing reversion to type. Thom Evans was badly missed, Kelly Brown left for Saracens, and injuries hampered the campaign. Little wonder Max Evans is off to Castres. The misery was compounded by Andy Robinson withdrawing several key players, including Richie Gray, from the last few rounds of the ML.

Ospreys
4th in Magners, 3rd in group in HEC
Whiff of Cordite has a confession to make. Following last season’s finale when Ospreys won in Thomond Park and clinched the title in the RDS, we erroneously thought Ospreys had located their cojones and would pose a significant threat in Europe this year. How wrong could we be? Weak-willed and negative in Europe, they blew their chance against a desperately out of sorts London Irish. In the ML, they were no better, but somehow fell over the line into fourth in spite of looking like they don’t really care. Never mind, Munster will beat them. Decline could be permanent, with Mike Philipps, Lee Byrne, James Hook and Jerry Collins off to pastures new. How long until Bowe bolts for the exit?

Stade Francais
11th in Top Catorze, Amlin finalists
Ok, they can still win the Amlin, but 11th in the Top 14 is a shameful performance for such an illustrious club. No longer the moneybags they used to be, but with the like of Parisse, Basteraud and Beauxis on the books, nobody should be looking for excuses. Primed for a clearout this summer, with a new side built in the manager’s image hopefully emerging. But, one has to wonder, has the power balance in the French capital shifted to Racing Metro?

Toulon
8th in Top 14, QF in HEC
A decent showing in their first season in Europe, but given their vast resources and extraordinary playing roster, they should be challenging for the Bouclier. The suspicion remains that their team of expensive mercenaries lack heart, and it was a pleasure to see unheralded Montpellier pip them to the playoff spot this weekend. Oh, and their brand of 10-man rugby is borderline unwatchable.

Wasps
9th in Premiership, QF in Amlin
Two words: Andy Powell.

by whiffofcordite on May 8, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Glasgow Warriors, Magners League, Ospreys, Premiership, Stade Francais, Top 14, Toulon, Wasps

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 8, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/05/08/top-of-the-flops/

Northamptonwatch

Anyone keeping an eye on Leinster’s HEC Final opponents Northampton will have seen a bizarre game in which they at one stage trailed 3-24 against now relegated Leeds, before turning the tie around to win 31-24. What such a strange game says about the side’s qualities is anyone’s guess. But one thing’s for sure: if they give a better side than Leeds a three try start, they will surely struggle.
It leaves Northampton with an imposing game away to Leicester – opponenets who Leinster described as test-level in terms of physicality – next saturday. We’ll follow their approach to this match with interest. Leinster will also benefit from an additional day in terms of turnaround time, as they play on Friday at home to Ulster.
Incidentally, what type of player does a swallow dive in scoring a try when you know it’s relegating your opposition? Charming as always.
by whiffofcordite on May 7, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Northampton

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 7, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/05/07/northamptonwatch/

Oooooh – the Tuilagi’s

On the day Will Greenwood named a brace of Tuilagi’s on his Premiership team of the year, we would like to share this.

As you will suspect, at Whiff of Cordite we don’t buy into the entirely predictable hype surrounding the latest Premiership Pacific bosher (remember Lesley “Next Big Thing” Vainikolo being railroaded into the England team by Stephen Jones), but Manu looks a hugely talented player and an amazing prospect. If Johnno decides to ditch Shontayne Hapless and re-build his midfield for the RWC, Manu could made a big impression in the Land of the Long White Cloud.

by whiffofcordite on May 7, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in England, Premiership, RWC11, Tuilagi

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 7, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/05/07/oooooh-the-tuilagis/

HEC-xy Boy

A momentous weekend ahead in European rugby – the last weekend of the regular season in France, England and the Magners. Since most play-off places are pretty much nailed down, lets talk instead about who will get into next season’s European Cup instead.

Qualifying automatically are 6 teams from England and France, 3 from Ireland and Wales and 2 from Scotland and Italy. The winners of this years HEC and AC will qualify, or earn their country an extra spot if they are already qualified through their league. However, if Saints and Quins do the business, England only gets 1 extra place, so this 24th place passes on to the highest ranked side who didn’t previously qualify.

So, who is in so far?

England: Leicester, Saracens, Gloucester, Northampton and Swashbuckling Bath
France: Toulouse, Racing Metro, and almost certainly Clermont and Castres
Ireland: Munster, Leinster, Ulster
Wales: Cardiff, Ospreys, Scarlets
Plus the usual Scottish and Italian patsies.

The final English place is between Irish and Quins. Irish are away to Leicester and Quins at home to Sarries. If Quins get 4 more match points than Irish, they get the last place. Both Leicester and Sarries have qualified with home semi-finals, so its hard to know what teams they will put out. Irish firmly in the box seat here, but we have a little fancy for Quins.

The French situation is more complex. Toulon (70 points), Biarritz (68), Montpellier (67) and Bayonne (67) are all in the mix. The big game is Montpellier-Toulon. The other 2 play already-relegated La Rochelle and Bourgoin, so you would have to expect 5 points each, meaning Toulon need to win and Montpellier need a bonus point win. Toulon have a bit of momentum at present, so we are going for Biarritz and Toulon to make it.

However, the really interesting question is if one of the other 2 make it – Toulon this year came in as bottom seeds, but not only did they qualify, the competition within the pool ensured no other team came through with them. If Bayonne or (especially) Montpellier make it, they are a very tough draw, and don’t forget Bayonne are taking out the chequebook this summer.

And finally, the “bonus” places for trophy winners:
If Leinster and Harlequins win, Connacht and Quins/Irish qualify.
If Leinster and Stade win, Connacht and Stade qualify.
If Saints and Stade win, Quins/Irish and Stade qualify.
If Saints and Quins win, Quins/Irish and Perpignan qualify, as Perpignan are the highest ranked team not already qualified.

Note: up to 22 of this seasons 24 participants can get back in – is the HEC becoming a self-perpetuating European rugby elite?

by whiffofcordite on May 6, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Harlequins, HEC, Leinster, Northampton, Stade Francais

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 6, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/05/06/hec-xy-boy/

Magners League Finale Preview

The Magners League rumbles to its conclusion this weekend, with two playoff spots up for grabs and Leinster needing a win to secure home advantage in their semi-final.

The format has added to the tournament, and should provide a bit of drama at some stage this weekend. It’s any two from Ulster, Cardiff and Ospreys for the final two spots. Any victory will be enough for Ulster, who travel to Dragons. We predict they’ll probably eke out yet another tight win – it’s becoming a trademark.

Even a much-changed Leinster line-up should have enough to beat Glasgow, whose best players have been preposterously withdrawn from the final rounds by Andy Robinson. We’ll be closely watching Kevin McLaughlin’s progress in the second row, and it’ll be worth seeing how Glasgow 13 Mark Bennett gets on. He’s an 18 year old prospect who’s allegedly been offered a deal by Clermont. Scottish rugby could do with some cheering up, so let’s see if they’ve finally unearthed a centre of true quality. No pressure then, laddie.

That would leave Ospreys and Cardiff fighting over the last spot. Both appear to be doing their best to avoid the daunting trip to Limerick, stepping over each other to throw away games. Ospreys will surely get the win they need in Aironi, meaning Cardiff will have to beat the Scarlets, or they are sunk. We suspect the Scarlets (who we’ve quite enjoyed watching this year) may just take this one.

Connacht won’t enjoy running into a wounded Munster team. In all likelihood it’s a last ever start at Thomond Park for liginds John Hayes and Alan Quinlan (and possibly Marcus Horan), so expect the team to do everything they can to make it a memorable one. We’ll be keeping tabs on Mike Sherry, the latest product of the Munster hooker factory, who has put in some nice cameos this year. Damian Varley is a fine player, but appears to have got the yips on his throwing, so if Sherry impresses here, he could start some big games to come.

All of which would leave us looking at Munster v Ospreys and Leinster v Ulster in the semi-finals.

by whiffofcordite on May 6, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 6, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/05/06/magners-league-finale-preview/

Franno back in the good books

Sellotanta Sports’ The Breakdown is firmly establishing itself as the best rugby analysis on TV, a welcome shelter from the Cork Constitution Media Consortium on RTE and the smug, Premiership-worshipping Rugby Club (‘Ooooohh, Matt Banahan must be given a chance at 12 for England’) on Sky .

Matty ‘The Accent’ Williams and Neil ‘Franno’ Francis make a good double team, with Matty’s wired intensity nicely counterbalanced by Franno’s laconic style, and their analysis is considered and bluster-free. Franno and Whiff of Cordite haven’t always been the best of friends – he was about three years behind us in realising Tommy Bowe wasn’t completely useless – but his knack with the English language is hard to deny. Last night, his observation that Blind Dave Pearson ‘couldn’t find a sequin in Elton John’s house’, had us wanting to simply stand up and applaud.

However, the less said about the final section where Matty got strapped up to some wires to help him kick last minute penalties like Ruan Pienaar – or something – the better.

by whiffofcordite on May 6, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Dave Pearson, Irish Media, Matt Williams, Neil Francis, Rugby Club, Setanta, The Breakdown

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 6, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/05/06/franno-back-in-the-good-books/

Snail Mail

In this age of Twitter and instant communication, its always somehow nice to receive an old-fashioned newspaper cutting from far-flung lands. Or London.

Especially when its as funny as this:

by whiffofcordite on May 5, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Denis Leamy, Harlequins, Munster, Nick Easter

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 5, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/05/05/snail-mail/

Fionn Carr returns to Leinster

Yesterday, Leinster confirmed the worst kept secret in Irish rugby – that Fionn Carr and Damian Browne are signing up for next year. It’s been a roundabout trip for Carr, who initially appeared to be heading to Leinster (who baulked at his gametime demands, or so rumour has it) before being linked to Wasps and eventually agreeing a deal with Ulster, before they changed their minds. So back he came to Leinster, but one presumes, with a lesser bargaining hand. Top clubs weren’t queueing up to sign the Connacht flyer – Eddie O’Kidney, it seems, isn’t the only one who doesn’t sufficiently trust his defence and positioning.

On Wednesday Night Rugby last night Matty Williams lamented the move for Carr, who he can’t see getting the gametime he needs at Leinster. And at first glance, Leinster do look stacked in the outside backs division. But here at Whiff of Cordite, we’re excited about the prospect of seeing Carr in a blue shirt. Look a little closer, and it’s apparent that the one thing lacking from the Leinster backline is out and out gas. A pure finisher and terrific broken field player like Carr should prove highly valuable. Plus, he’ll have a chance to get a headstart on the likes of Fitzy and Robnoxious (and possibly Fergus and Shaggy), who will be down under for the first six weeks of the season. Schmidt has shown that if you take your chances he will continue to pick you, so if he can impress early he will have every chance of making a name for himself.

by whiffofcordite on May 5, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Connacht, Fionn Carr, Leinster

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 5, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/05/05/fionn-carr-returns-to-leinster/

The Head-Scratchingly Complex English Championship

With our interest piqued by the madcap last 10 minutes in the Worcester-Bedford (I know, doesn’t sound *that* interesting, but watch from 1:25:00 onwards in the video below), we started wondering about the structure of the English Championship.

Now, as our English friends will know, the criteria for getting into the Premiership are much stricter than those applying to teams already in the top tier – for example, Sale’s ground would not be of high enough quality for them to get promoted if they happened to go down.

So, there are a limited number of Championship teams who can actually get promoted. We are open to correction, but this season we believed it was only Worcester and Bristol. Of these, only Worcester reached the play-offs, along with Bedford, London Welsh and Cornish Pirates. If Worcester happen to trip up, there will be no promotion this year.

Pretty much like the Magners League then, only with more column inches.

Now, how did the afore-mentioned 4 teams make the play-offs, we hear you ask …

Well, lets see:

  1. 12 teams play each other twice (22 games)
  2. The top EIGHT (!) are split into 2 groups – teams carry forward some bonus points from the first stage, up to a maximum of 3, but a win in this stage is worth 4 points, so the points earned from stage 1 are strictly notional
  3. Each team plays home and away against the other teams in the group (6 games)
  4. Semi-final stage: First in one group plays second in the other

With us so far?

Now, in Stage 1, Worcester (with players of the “calibre” of Neil Best and Andy Goode) won 21 out of 22 games. In stage 2, they won 6 out of 6. In Stage 1, Bedford won 17 out of 22 and in Stage 2, they won 3 out of 6.

And Bedford came a botched drop goal away from putting out Worcester.

Aside: Last season, Bristol won every game, but bowed out in the (2-legged) final to Exeter.

So, here is what we are thinking:

  • You could win 30 matches and lose 1 and not win the Championship – if the one loss is in the 2 legged final, and means you lose on aggregate
  • Why not play the first 22 games to scrape into 8th place, hire a few Rent-a-Saffer’s, get into the Play-offs, hire some Rent-a-Kiwi’s, and ensure promotion?

Would anyone like to fill us in on how and why the Championship is structured as it is?

by whiffofcordite on May 5, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Bedford Blues, Bristol, Championship, Cornish Pirates, England, London Welsh, Worcester

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 5, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/05/05/the-head-scratchingly-complex-english-championship/

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