At this two-thirds stage of the last-ever HEC (in this form anyway), the Irish provinces are all in a reasonable position, and Ulster are best placed of the lot. That’s not to say they’ll all be feeling happy about the opening four games, and Leinster in particular will be pretty pissed off they lost at home to the No-Pressure-On-Them edition of the Northampton Saints; and that insipid performance in front of both fans in Murrayfield will likely cost Munster a home quarter-final, but with three wins both are expected to qualify.

Leinster would have looked at their trips to the Hairsprays and Franklin’s Gardens as odds-against trips – and the results and performances were excellent. The flip side has been the rubbish home form, which is a particular worry ahead of the Ospreys game. The last-minute concession of their bonus point against the Saints might come back to haunt them, particularly if it ends up consigning them to a trip to Toulon or Clermont.

In Munster, they will be hyping up talking about JJ Hanrahan’s try for a while to come, but it got them out of jail after a pretty average performance and a systemic defensive meltdown at the worst possible moment. But a win is a win, and it feels even better when it’s in France. But because of the aforementioned defeat to Embra, they’ll need to win in Kingsholm to even have a chance of a home quarter. It’s been done four times in the Premiership this season, by such luminaries as Sale Sharks, Wasps and Exeter, and once by Embra, so Munster shouldn’t travel in fear, and really should be able to navigate that trip. A low seeding and a trip to France might beckon, but that’s the stuff tears are made of, so how bad.

Up north, Ulster will bask in the glow of their 100% record over Christmas. Problem is, with Leicester’s win in Montpellier, they’ll probably need a bonus point in Welford Road (while losing by less than six) to get through, something that proved beyond them two seasons ago. If they don’t win the pool, they should still qualify, but by our reckoning they’ll be playing for home advantage in the next round. Incentive to give it a lash for sure, and they are much better than they were two years ago.  However cloudy the future of the competition, Leicester will play every game they face at full throttle, and their last-minute victory was tribute to their never say die attitude. They are a worthy adversary, and have much to admire. Even though they haven’t won the pot in 11 years, they have been eliminated by the eventual winners five times, the runners-up once, and big-game bottlers Clermont twice – if Ulster can win this pool, they are contenders for the trophy.

As for the province we get most-accused of being biased against, Connacht can retire from the HEC happy that they have their memory to dine out on for years to come. They’ve had quite a few oh-so-nears away from home in their few seasons in the elite competition, and its well-deserved. Some of the minnows add nothing (looking at you Zebroni), but Connacht have been consistently competitive and the Sportsground has translated well to games with big teams, and Saracens.

Predictions for qualifier rankings:

1. Toulouse
2. Ulster
3. Toulon
4. Clermont
5. Munster
6. Leinster
7. Leicester
8. Globo Gym

Now that that’s all gone, we have to talk about Leinster. A most disappointing and worrying performance – the last-minute withdrawal of Sean O’Brien left them without any effective carriers and the Saints managed to tackle Leinster backwards almost every time. When the Saints ambushed Ulster in similar fashion last year, they produced the physical template that Globo Gym used to administer the knockout blow in the quarters. Leinster better hope that they have O’Brien and Cian Healy fit for any trip to France in the knockouts, or it’s curtains.

Still, they nearly won it right at the end. When Kahn Fotuali’i sacrificed a penalty advantage to drop a goal with over a minute left on the clock, we smelled a mistake. All the Saints needed to do was go through a few more phases, then take the full minute to kick a penalty and the game was won. The decision to nick the drop gave Leinster the final chance they needed and they were incredibly close to punishing Fotuali’i for it. Small things add up at the highest level, and the likes of Leicester, Leinster, Munster, Toulon, Toulouse would never allow their opponents another chance in such situations.

What’s all this, then?  Actual rugby matches between provincial and club sides throughout Ireland, Scotland, Wales, England, Italy and France?  Sounds like an intriguing prospect.  This lark might even catch on.  Northampton vs. Leinster?  Perpignan vs. Munster?!  This sounds bloody fantastic.  We want MORE of this sort of thing.  Certainly not less of it anyway.  Or some diluted version involving the Portuguese team (‘Except you Julian Bardy, the only player anyone has heard of, you have to play for Clermont’) making up the numbers.

It’ll be a merciful relief to get back to the reliably invigorating business of the Heineken Cup.  The preliminary rounds seem so long ago at this stage, with the November series and the endless wranglings in the interim, it almost requires an effort to remember exactly how it’s all poised.  Did Munster really lose in Edinburgh?  Good Lord, they did!  And what a result from Ulster to sack Montpellier on their own turf.  Leinster find themselves two-from-two and Connacht have a win over Zebre and ran Saracens to the last play in their first game, prompting a hilarious tweet from Stephen Jones trying to convince everyone – including himself, presumably – that it was a comfortable win for Globo Gym against the ‘non-elite’ Connacht.  How quaint all that posturing seems now.

All of which brings us to the glorious double headers, often the highpoint of the calendar.  Is there any fresh way to say they often decide the outcome of the pool?  Probably not, but who cares – they do.  You can cough up a cheap loss in the first two rounds, but only if you atone for it here.  The good people at ERC, or Sky, or wherever these things are decided by tend to orchestrate the schedule so the two big boys in each pool cross paths in the back-to-backs, so winning both legs isn’t always a requirement, and simply coming out on top in match points is often enough.

That’s certainly the case with Leinster, who have had a curious season so far.  Having won in Ospreys, they made heavy weather of Castres at home but the pool qualifier will come from this match-up in any case.  A bonus point on the road will be enough to keep Leinster in the hunt, providing they can win at home.  Northampton can be odd, though.  Last year they surrendered meekly at home to Ulster, apparently sealing their fate, before improbably turning the tables in Ravenhill of all places.  Ben Foden’s injured though, and he provides their creative spark.  Over to you, Courtney Lawes, to inflict the damage.

Munster have a different set of parameters.  They arguably need to win both games, having lost to Edinburgh in a disastrous opening match.  They have the home leg first in what has come to be known as – thanks Gerry – the Sunday mass slot.  It’s often lamented, but we have few memories of them playing particularly badly in it and they should have the goods to beat Perpignan in Thomond Park with a bit to spare.  The acid test will be trying to go down to the Aime Geral and getting a win.  It’s a daunting stadium, but Perpignan themselves don’t intimidate too many teams these days; they currently lie 9th in the Top 14 and Munster are certainly capable of winning there.  Last time they went there nobody fancied them at all, but they were rampant.  Tomas O’Leary was on fire and Donnacha Ryan came off the bench to announce his talent on the big stage. Perpignan have a monstrous pack and a wonderfully creative outhalf, but, of all the French teams in the HEC, they are probably the one you would want.

Ulster have the easier part of their assignment.  They’re in a great position after beating Montpellier, and should be looking for nine points as a minimum return against a Treviso side that hasn’t really picked up where they left off last season. The natty Italians have a habit of making life awkward for Ulster, but got spanked in Ravers earlier this year – Ulster will be pretty confident of snagging 5 points on Saturday, and should have the momentum to grind out a win away. Those 9 points should more or less wrap up a home quarter-final … assuming no flakes like last season’s home loss to the Saints.

And don’t forget Connacht, who play Toulouse, who aren’t quite the – yaswnsville – ‘aristocrats of Europe’ these days, although they did win away to Saracens, which has seen them installed as favourites to win their group.  Connacht will struggle in the away tie, but will certainly be targeting a rousing performance at the Sportsground.  It’ll be Toulouse’s second visit to the dog track, but the hope that the less than salubrious surroundings will put the Toulousains off their stride proved hopelessly wide of the mark on their first, and Connact – enduring a pretty hopeless season and rock bottom of the Pro12 as it stands – will be in need of some sort of miracle to come out with a win.