The moment we’ve all been waiting for has arrived; the Lions squad is out!

Ultimately it was a slightly underwhelming announcement with few of the fireworks some expected Gatland to provide.  The late bolts from flair players went largely unrewarded, and Simon Zebo, Christian Wade, Ian Madigan and James Hook will all have to look to national summer tours for rugby, injury call-ups notwithstanding.

We got much right in our predictions, and some things wrong.  Kearney snuck in the door as one of three specialist full-backs.  At centre they’ve chosen a strangely unbalanced crew, all 13s and only one 12.  Is Brian O’Driscoll being considered for the role of inside centre, or at least providing cover there?  How this pans out will be interesting.  As such, it’s even more surprising that no utility back has been selected.

The third tighthead – a position where we really struggled to identify a worthy player – went to Matt Stevens rather than Euan Murray.  Stevens looks somewhat past his best, but with Dan Cole and Adam Jones already universally agreed upon, the role of third man is of limited importance.

At fly-half, where Jonny Wilinson’s credentials were apparently re-considered at the last.  Farrell has survived the late challenge and travels as one of only two 10s.  He can consider himself a very lucky boy.  It leaves Jonny Sexton with a virtual walk-in to the test team.

Robshaw Misses Out

Picture the scene.  The English side you’ve captained have won four from four in the Six Nations, having beaten the All Blacks in November.  Your leadership of the team has been roundly praised.  Win your final game – a tricky one against a resurgent Wales in Cardiff – and you are a grand-slam winning captain in a Lions year.  In short, you are in the box seat; immortality beckons.

But the game in Wales is a disaster.  The Welsh – with a backrow containing two breakaways – play at a tempo that you cannot live with and the result is a hammering, 30-3.  It even swings the championship their way on points difference.  But at least the Heineken Cup to come, there is a chance of a reprieve, and your club has a manageable quarter-final, at home to a Munster side having a ho-hum season.  But unthinkably, you lose, somehow allowing the Munster players to dominate collisions and the breakdown.  Your own performance is totally dominated by some unknown fellow, Tommy Donnelly, or something.  How has this happened?  Suddenly, from Lions captain, you’re facing an anxious wait, and the best you can hope for is (Lions bingo moment) a stint as mideek captain, manning it up with the dirt trackers…

So it came to be that Chris Robshaw missed out on Lions selection.  And it’s hard to argue with Gatland’s selection.  In the event he’s chosen flankers with highly specialised talents, rather than hard working types who don’t excel in any particular area.  On the openside, he has breakdown specialist Warburton and exceptional link-man Justin Tipuric.  Both are specialist 7s.  On the blind side he’s given himself healthy variety with an outstanding ball-carrier in Sean O’Brien, a super-fit all-action tackling machine in Dan Lydiate and a superb linout operator with the added bonus of terrific pace in Tom Croft.

Croft has nothing like the work rate of Robshaw, but he is a technician in the set piece and his outside break and fend can occasionally result in 50m gains (you could even say that Croft’s pace will be needed on the hard grounds – scatch off another Lions bingo square).  It’s the specialist versus the generalist, and the specialist has won out.  England might be content to put out backrows made up of three identikit six-and-a-halves, but that sort of rugby is anathema to Gatty, and he’s been vocal on the topic for over a year now.

Reprieve for the Irish

On saturday we thought the papers selecting nine Irish Lions were being generous to themselves in the extreme.  We had it at seven.  In the end, we upped it to eight, making room for Conor Murray late in the day.  In the event they’ve got nine, one less than England but six more than Scotland.  It doesn’t square with the Six Nations table.  Gatland has essentially given these high quality players a reprieve: ‘Look, chaps’, he appears to be saying ‘the Six Nations was rubbish but you and I both know that Deccie was a busted flush and the team was a mess.  I know you’re better than that and we’re going to put all that behind us and teach these Aussies a lesson about rugby’.

With Wales having come up just short against Australia in every recent encounter he knows he needs to add some of the Irish (specifically Leinster) guile and craft to the square-and-straight approach favoured by Wales, in order to make the difference.  It looks like he’ll be going with the Welsh 12 and outside backs, plus Sexton and O’Driscoll – but don’t bet against Bowe squeezing in by Test time.  They’ll bring some subtlety to proceedings, creating space, running angles, bringing the big Welsh runners into play in a more subtle fashion, rather than just trying to bash holes and getting nowhere.

Among the Irish selected, a number will be likely test starters.  Sexton, Healy and BOD are in pole position, and the likes of O’Connell, O’Brien, Healsip and Bowe would have a very strong chance of making the test team once they bring their best form.

Those looking to complete a full house on their Lions Outrage bingo cards should be directed to English websites, where no doubt their low representation on the touring party will not be going down well.  At the height of Robshaw-mania mid-Six Nations, the Torygraph projected a Lions team with no less than seven English forwards.  This will not be coming to pass.  Further outrage is likely to be garnered on the tour itself, where much of the English look like midweek material.  Tom Youngs, Matt Stevens or Owen Farrell for the test team?  No thanks.

One of the English forwards going is Nice Guy Dylan H*****y – it’s heavily ironic for Rory Best, for after the Ulster evisceration of the Saints in Franklins Gardens, containing a total Hartley-domination by the Armagh man, you would have got very long odds on Hartley going and Best not. Best has essentially played himself off the plane with some desperate lineout work in recent months.  Hartley’s Northampton haven’t exactly been the toast of Europe this season, and he lost his England jumper to Tom Youngs – it’s hard to convince oneself he’s a richly deserving tourist.

Sam The Eagle is Captain

Gatland has looked past the huge experience and inspirational leadership of the two Irish candidates, Paul O’Connell and Brian O’Driscoll, instead sticking by his Welsh captain Sam Warburton.  It looks a risky call.  There have been doubts over Warb’s form and fitness over the last twelve months (O’Driscoll and O’Connell are also regularly on the treatment table, it must be said) and it wasn’t long ago he was out of the Welsh starting team, dropped for the electric Tipuric.  It also appears he declined the opportunity to captain Wales in their final game, in a desire to focus on his own game.  Selfless act, taking one for the team, or a shirking of his duties?  In the event Wales played brilliantly and Warb was superb, so he probably deserves the benfit of any doubt.

It leaves the touring party looking very Welsh indeed.  Welsh coaches, Welsh captain, large Welsh contingent.  Given the large number of Welsh in the party, they might have responded better to a new, outsider’s voice.  Is there a risk of the tour group breaking into factions?  Gatland being Gatland, he doesn’t tend to pay lip service to politics (he once picked a team containing 13 Ospreys for Wales) and would be of the mind that his best man for the job is the best man for the job, and that’s that.

To be fair to Gatland, he has done his best to play down the significance of the role, even saying it will have no bearing on selection and he will happily pick a test team without his captain if that’s what’s required.  Nonetheless, those steeped in – Skyhype alert – the culture and history of the Lions will know the significance of captaining the touring party.  This is Sam’s moment, he must deliver on it in the matches themselves, which, although a sideshow to the main event of selection, can be worth a passing glance.

‘Immortality’ is just 24 hours away according to the Skyhype machine.  You don’t even have to play well to be immortal these days, just getting named on a touring panel and playing a few non-test games in Australia on Wednesday nights is apparently enough.  But then we all know the truth – the endless speculation and selection of the squad, and ultimately of the test team is what the Lions is all about, as opposed to the matches, which the Lions almost always lose anyway.  So, with that in mind, on with the show…

Scrum Half: Mike Phillips, Ben Youngs, Conor Murray

The only certainty here is that Mike Phillips is traveling.  In spite of mucking around in the lower end of the Top 14, he appears able to show his class when the occasion demands it.  His performance against England in the Six Nations was a reminder that no other European scrum-half can dominate matches like he does.  Outside of Phillips, things get tricky. It looks like two from four between Greig Laidlaw, Conor Murray and the two Englishmen, Danny Care and Ben Youngs.  It all rather depends on what Gatland is looking for to compliment Phillips, who will doubtless start the test matches.  A like-for-like replacement?  That’d be Murray.  A totally different player to provide a Plan B?  Try Ben Youngs, who’s all about tempo.  An impact substitute?  Danny Care, who excels against tiring defences, would fit the bill.  Or someone who can provide versatility and cover 10 in midweek games?  Greig Laidlaw is the man.  We got a touch overexcited a few weeks back and proclaimed Care our test staring outhalf, prompting him into a series of eye-wateringly bad performances.  He may now miss out to his compatriot Youngs.  Conor Murray’s recent form probably just squeezes him onto the plane.

Outhalf: Jonny Sexton, Owen Farrell, James Hook

Jonny Sexton has been de facto test starting 10 for some time, and has hit form promptly on his return from injury.  Options to back him up have been troublingly lacking since Rhys Priestland went from crisis to injury – with the exception of the glorious, un-ageing Jonny Wilkinson. If Toulon had any notion of releasing their prize asset for a muckaround against New South Wales Country to give him a chance to prove his fitness to Graham Rowntree, he’d be on the plane. But they won’t, and he won’t be either.

Owen Farrell seems the likely beneficiary, despite his vast shortcomings as a fly-half.  On Sunday, one canny tweeter noted that he was the third best Lions-eligible fly-half on the pitch in Saracens’ gloomy defeat to Toulon.  He will be a fortunate tourist – it’s mad that an extra week watching videos of Gareth Edwards is considered better preparation than a Top 14 final, but hey, there you go.  With only two dedicated 10s traveling, a utility player will probably be included in the touring party.  The obvious name is James Hook, and Sky were only too happy to turn Friday night’s Amlin semi-final into the ‘Will James Hook Go On The Lions Show’.  Hook can play 10, 12, 13 and 15, has Lions experience, and speaks with a Welsh lilt – he fits the bill. He’s under pressure after an impressive late dash from Ian Madigan, but the Leinsterman may just miss out due to lack of experience, though he might be first reserve.

Centres: Jamie Roberts, Ooooooooooooooohh Brad Barritt, Brian O’Driscoll, Manu Tuilagi

Jamie Roberts, once fit, is a guaranteed starter, and there are a lack of test class options to back him up.  Brad Barritt is an iron-clad defender and little more, and will have ‘midweek’ written all over him.  Outside, it’s two from three between O’Driscoll, Tuilagi and the resurgent Jonathan Davies.  O’Driscoll’s leadership, class and partnership with Roberts are surely worth a last hurrah.  His form for Leinster is excellent.  Take your pick between Davies and Manu; we’d lean slightly towards the Ashton-lamper – and not just for that, his power and eye for a gap will discommode the Wallabies more than Davies defence and intelligent lines. Stephen Jones flew the highly interesting kite that BOD was being considering as the Test 12 – if that is the case, and with Hook in the squad, Davies might squeeze out Barritt.

Wings: Tommy Bowe, George North, Alex Cuthbert, Sean Maitland

An area of no little depth.  North will be a Lion, the rest are uncertain.  His compatriot Cuthbert mixed the downright awful with the outstanding in the Six Nations.  He can be a defensive liability or unplayable in attack, sometimes both in the same match.  Sean Maitland oozes Kiwi class and is at the core of Glasgow’s superb finish to the season.  Bowe has looked pin-sharp since returning and is proven class.  He probably just – just! – edges out Simon Zebo, who is a touch unlucky – he picked a bad time to look nervous on Saturday, but he’s probably only one injury from a call-up.  Tim Visser, an out of form Chris Ashton and a fastman like Cristian Wade are probably on the radar but just outside the squad.

Full Back: Stuart Hogg, Lee 0.5p

Rob Kearney excelled on tour in 2009, and was so good in 2012 that it seemed unthinkable he wouldn’t be on the tour.  His claims are looking shaky right now, and he is relying on Gatland bringing three specialist 15s.  Ahead of him Lee 0.5p was Six Nations player of the championship and Hogg is greased lightning and made for the hard Antipodean grounds.  Behind in the queue are a bunch of Englishmen; Goode, Brown and Ben Foden, another player who at his best would be a shoo-in, but is out of the picture.

For those not selected, it’s worth remembering that close to double figures of players were flown out as replacements in 2009, so all is not lost.  Modern rugby being as it is, a handful of players will suffer a heartbreaking injury between now and the opening test.  In 2009, Tom Croft was not even named in the original squad, with Alan Quinlan preferred, but we all know what happened to Quinny (remember it’s no fun being cited, folks), and in the end Crofty started all three tests and scored two tries in the first.  So the likes of Rory Best, Donnacha Ryan and Simon Zebo might get out there yet.

The Sky Sports montage of African lions cavorting around Uluru suddenly magically transports them to Sydney Opera House – they gradually fade away to leave an image of a slim-looking guy who bears a passing resemblence to a certain corpulent former England centre now on the Beeb dropping a goal. He in turn fades into a tearful Phil Vickery and a heartbroken Shawsie. Music turns into a deep minor key – flim moves on to a smiling Beast, tries by Tom Croft, BOD mouthing “bring it on”, injured players exiting stage left, Jacque Fourie showing a woozy Rog who is boss, and then finally a winning penalty from Morne.

Simon Lazenby can barely conceal his glee, it’s the Lions! Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiions! Tearful tributes to a professional anachronism abound, the merits of old school touring are tarted up with sepia paint, Ian McGeechan has been wheeled out, and – finally – it’s squad announcement time. Tingles!!

We’re going to second guess Gatty and co. We have steadfastedly avoided naming a squad until now and instead skirted the issue by talking about Israel Folau and bolters and such. But we can avoid no longer. Egg will see which fatties are going to need their official jackets taken out, while later Palla is going to investigate which flash backs will be anxiously checking Australian import regulations on ylang-ylang tree oil.

Loosehead Props: Cian Healy, Gethin Jenkins, Mako Vunipola. Jenkins may tell Toulon to stuff their playoff matches and head off on the tour if called upon.  He’s been out of favour, but is such a good player he’s worth bringing, and then who knows?  It looks like a shootout between him and the explosive Healy to start the tests, with Vunipola a potential impact sub.  If Jenkins isn’t released by Toulon, the capable Ryan Grant will go.

Hookers: Ross Ford, Richard Hibbard, Tom Youngs. Hibbard and Youngs are nailed on. The third slot is pretty open, with Rory Best slowly unbolting over the last four months.  On a tour without many standout Scottish options, Gatty might take this opportunity to get one in and avoid more tears from Geech – Ford to go ahead of Rory Best and Dylan H*****y.

Tighthead Props: Dan Cole, Adam Jones, Euan Murray. Not much debate here – the only question was would Mike Ross have a good enough season to displace the three ogres. In the event, he hasn’t, and has looked extremely fatigued to boot. In fact, let’s hope Schmidty leaves him here instead of bringing him to North America.  Euan Murray has done little of late, but might travel on reputation.

Second Row: Ian Evans, Richie Gray, Alun Wyn Jones, Paul O’Connell, Geoff Parling. The above is all contingent on Gray being fit enough – if he isn’t, Joe Launchbury is the obvious one-for-one replacement. Donnacha Ryan has been usurped by his provincial colleague Paulie; it’s unlikely both will be picked. Evans and O’Connell are favourites for the test jumpers at this juncture, but Alun Wyn Jones added serious value to Wales’ Six Nations campaign once he returned from injury. Big Jim Hamilton had a great Six Nations, but, despite much shorter arms, Parling holds him off due to greater mobility and athleticism.

Blindside Flankers: Dan Lydiate, Sean O’Brien, Tom Wood. Media darling Crofty is squeezed out again – in an attritional position, he’ll probably end up out there at any rate. Fez probably would have toured were he fit, and Dan Lydiate takes that role, having returned from injury with the Dragons, and looked in acceptable nick. He’s a prototype 6 and worth the risk.  Wood and O’Brien can cover 8 if necessary, and O’Brien allegedly 7 as well.

Openside Flankers: Justin Tipuric, Sam Warburton (c). Warburton will be Gatty’s go-to leader guy – he’s done the job before, and Gatland is fine with him not necessarily being first choice. And it’s no surprise he isn’t, for Justin Tipuric has been the stand-out openside this year. Honest Chris Robshaw misses out – he just hasn’t been good enough since his February displays, and the two selected are pure class, and highly specialised talents.

Number Eights: Toby Faletau, Jamie Heaslip. Faletau is nailed on, and favourite for the test jumper. We think Gatty will bring one other specialist 8, which makes it Heaslip vs Johnnie Beattie. Heaslip is simply in better form, and when he is allowed to play his natural role, has had a good season – his barnstorming performance on Saturday (15 carries for 124 metres and top of the tackle count) probably booked him his airline ticket.

That’s 21 forwards, and we think 16 backs will accompany them. It’s an unanswered question who will be in charge of fines on tour – tight five forwards usually revel in this role, is Ian Evans a contender?

Palla will be back later on to resolve the other big selection dilemmas facing Gatty:

• Will La Rochelle release Lesley Vainikolo from their Pro D2 playoff commitments?
• Can Donncha O’Callaghan oust George North for a wing slot?
• If Graeme Morrison isn’t available, who is favourite for to back up Jamie Roberts?