Yesterday, the IRFU released the new set of rules governing the provincial teams’ recruitment of Non-Irish Eligible (NIE) players, which will come into play in the 2013/14 season.  The changes are as follows:

– One non-Irish eligible (NIE) player only in each of the 15 field positions across the provinces of Leinster, Munster and Ulster e.g. one foreign player allowed across all three teams per position.
– For the 2013/14 season and onwards, for any given position involving a contracted NIE player, a province will not be permitted to renew that NIE player contract or bring in a new NIE player into that same position in its squad.
– All future provincial injury replacement players must be eligible for selection for Ireland.
– All future provincial non-Irish eligible player contracts will be position specific.
– Connacht are external to this process as it has recently commenced a new programme of structural and performance development agreed with the IRFU

The rules are aimed at striking a balance between provincial success and benefiting the national team, which is very much at the top of the Irish rugby pyramid.  The IRFU want two players competing in every position for the national team, with the thinking being that with a maximum of one NIE full-back (say Jared Payne playing for Ulster), there will be an Irish one at both Munster and Leinster.  NIE signings will now be position specific – so, for example, BJ Botha will essentially be branded with a giant ‘3’ on his back.

Let’s face it, this is all about the front row.  The IRFU is trying to remove the current situation where young Irish props are confined to the British & Irish Cup while Wian du Preez and Nathan White are togging out in the Heineken Cup.  A quick glance through the list of 16 NIE players currently plying their trade in Ireland shows where the overlap is:

1 Wian du Preez (M), Heinke can der Merwe (L)
3 John Afoa (U), Nathan White (L) and BJ Botha (M)
4 Steven Sykes (L)
5 Johann Muller (U)
8 Padrie Wannenberg (U)
9 Ruan Pienaar (U)
10 Matt Berquist (L)
11 Simon Danielli (U)
12 Lifiemi Mafi (M)
13 Will Chambers (M)
14 Dougie Howlett (M)
15 Isa Nacewa (L), Jared Payne (U)

Given that Simon Danielli won’t be missed too greatly and Dougie will hardly be around in 2014, while Isa Nacewa can easily be classified as a 14, the only significant overlap is in the front row.  With just one loosehead slot, and one tighthead going between the two provinces, there is going to be one serious bunfight to get those prized slots.  Each of Munster and Ulster currently have imported world class technicians in those positions, but succession plans will need to kick off in earnest right away.  One of the two is going to end up severely weakened – but which?  And who decides?  And how?  Would Munster be four from four in the HEC without BJ Botha?  Its not likely.  Meanwhile, anyone holding shares in Irish tighthead Mike Ross plc just saw their investment double in value, although even he could be pushing over the hill by 2014.

However, the crucial detail, to us anyway, is that once an NIE player’s contract is up, he must be on his merry way – and you cannot replace him with another NIE player in the same position.  Essenatially, the IRFU is saying ‘You can sign an NIE, but only for a couple of years while he keeps the shirt warm for an Irish player.’  So, if Ruan Pienaar’s contract were to expire, he would be thanked for his time and sent packing, and Paul Marshall would presumably be handed the starting jersey (or Ulster could recruit another Irish player).

Speaking of Pienaar, when Ulster signed him, they were at pains to point out that he was being signed as a scrum-half. At the time it looked like a case of not hurting iHumph’s feelings, but perhaps Ulster saw this in the pipeline.  A bit too conspiratorial?  Maybe.

We think the one-contract-and-out element is too harsh on the provinces, and could make life needlessly difficult for them.  To cite another example, Munster have not produced any centres of note in recent times.  Now, once Mafi’s contract expires, they will be forced to play an Irishman there, though none may meet the standard.  Perhaps the end result will be greater movement between the provinces, with someone like Nevin Spence guaranteed game time in that position for Munster.  Similarly, Leinster might see this as the catalyst to go in pursuit of Ian Nagle, who is buried not beneath NIEs, but a pile of Irish locks at Munster, while the Leinster second row well is pretty dry.

This rule will also make it more difficult for the provinces to recruit high quality NIEs.  Players will know they are precluded from staying for longer than their first contract allows.  Howlett, Contepomi and Nacewa all went on not only to become legends in their provinces, but brought up their families here.  Would you bring your family somewhere you know will be no more than a two-three year stop-off?  Unlikely.

The IRFU are broadly correct to tighten the rules on NIEs at this point.  The argument that the likes of Jim Williams and John Langford taught the Munster players so much is true, but it’s no longer relevant.  Professionalism is now entrenched in Irish rugby, and the last players with connections to the amateur era are now retired.  We don’t need a bunch of Aussies explaining that going out on the sauce when you’re injured isn’t a great idea any more, valuable though it was in the past.  The Irish senior players are now in a position to pass on this advice.  But as the IRFU say, it’s all about balance, and they would want to be mindful they don’t overly restrict the provinces.

There is a danger that this is stemming from the provinces having achieved so much in the last few years, and the IRFU seeking to transfer this success to the national team by committee.  We would be quick to point out that Leinster’s success is down to the outstanding coaching and squad management of Joe Schmidt, and that the same is available to the national team with more progressive coaching, gameplan and selection, rather than an overhaul of structures.

Ultimately, it is the provinces, rather than the national team, that have driven so much of the growth in the game in the last decade.  The IRFU point out that the Irish national team is still the main revenue driver, and subsidises the provinces, but this reveals only half of the picture.  Would the desire to watch the national team be so strong without the provincial successes we’ve enjoyed?  Increasingly, the Heineken Cup is the more enjoyable, exciting and glamorous tournament than the Six Nations.  The fans feel a bond with their provincial side, which isn’t quite there at national level, where the players tend to be removed from their communities.  It’s a distinct possibility that the IRFU could be killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Ireland’s second row has been a low turnover position over the last decade.  Paul O’Connell and Mal O’Kelly were in situ between 2002 and 2006, bolstered by Donncha O’Callaghan, until the lovable scamp passed Big Mal out, and since then the Munster pair have been untouchable.  Mick O’Driscoll and Leo Cullen have stepped in during injury layoffs, and in the World Cup Donnacha Ryan warmed the bench, but when available The Two OC’s were pretty much, rightly or wrongly, cast in stone in the Irish XV.

Well, no more.  Donners has found himself dropped at Munster following a spell (a four-year long spell, his detractors might argue) of indifferent form.  And indeed, we reckon there’ll be a fairly new look to the panel of second rows in Deccie’s squad this spring.

In Dr Beeching’s cross-hairs:

Cut from the squad: Leo Cullen and Mick O’Driscoll

Still a fine player and captain with Leinster, Leo has achieved plenty in his club career, and can feel a little aggrieved he never got the rub of the green at international level.  Even when he finally got to a World Cup, he was ousted from the matchday squad and his only runout was with the midweek squad against Russia.  That said, at 34, Leo is unlikely to suddenly make an impact in test rugby.  A decidedly old school lock, he’s best served continuing to do his thing for Leinster.

Micko is a long-standing bete-noir for Leinster fans who could never quite see why this decidedly middling player persistently made Deccie’s squad, but is nonetheless a handy, durable fellow who leads the pack well (notably in “that” game where the Kiwis did “that” against their fellow countrymen) and presumably a reliable tackle bag holder.  He can reflect on a fine career, but it’s one that’s starting to fade.  Micko no longer makes the Munster matchday 23, so it’s hard to see how he can still be viewed as an international player.

Demoted from the First Team: Donncha O’Callaghan

A polarising player to say the least.  An invaluable grafter willing to do – yawn – the ‘unseen work’ or an underpowered penalty machine?  Either way, Donners has fallen behind his almost-namesake Ryan in the Munster team, and can expect the same to happen with Ireland.  Inevitably, he’ll still have a place in the panel, and could still make the matchday squad.

TGV service to RWC15 departing from Platform Deccie:

Into the starting team: Donnacha Ryan

With management already in the fanclub, Ryan is likely to find his recent long-overdue breakthrough for Munster mirrored at international level.  He’s a player that grows on you, and brings a real  aggression to his play.  Still a rough-edged jewel but getting better all the time.  Also prone to foolish penalties, but, hey, so is O’Callaghan.

On the bench: Dan Tuohy

Ah yes, Dan Tuohy.  The big Ulsterman is strange by Irish second row standards in that he can carry and even run with the ball.  A luxury, surely?!  He’s still a bit up and down in his level, but his performance in the Leicester defeat showcased a player of real quality.  As Ireland’s only really footballing lock he would be worth a place as a replacement capable of offering us something different – he looked very comfortable in the green shirt in his only showing to date.

On tackle bag duty: Devin Toner

The Tall Man played badly last year, but the Leinster coaching staff appear to be getting the message through and Toner has played – whisper it – pretty well this season so far and is using his physique to better effect.  His sheer height will always be a double edged sword, but there is an obvious value having him in the middle of the lineout.  He has only started one of the three HEC games so far, but has performed commendably in all three, and given Joe’s horses for courses selection policy, it would be no surprise to see him start all the remaining three group games.  More likely to feature in place of an injured O’Connell than alongside him.

Worth Keeping an Eye On: Ryan Caldwell

An athletic, talented player, but prone to hot-headed silliness, Ulster lost patience with Caldwell.  But he’s winning rave reviews in Bath and impressed in the encounter with Leinster.  Now in his prime, out of sight will hopefully not be out of mind.

The Fat (well, big) Controller:

Paul O’Connell

The great man will be going nowhere, and the good news for any inexperienced partner is they’ll be playing alongside Europe’s pre-eminent second row.  Playing better than ever it seems, some of his carries have even extended beyond the 70cm mark, while his work at restarts is astonishing.

Leaves on the track:

Biiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig Bob Casey

The best lineout operator in the Premiership (TM), except its not true any more and he is in and out of the London Samoa team these days. Bob offered impressive ballast in his peak, which he is way past, but the comically sized small table they make him sit at on TV means we simply have to mention him

Tom Hayes

Deccie, just because the Bull has gone doesn’t mean you need to pick his brother. Come on now. Deccie? Please tell us you aren’t on the phone to Ed O’Donoghue. Oh, Ian Nagle? That’s ok, but Ludd has said he isn’t picking him until 2016…