Jobs for the Goys

Leinster have named Leo Cullen as their new head coach today, in a move that will surprise exactly nobody, having been leaked and rumoured since Matt O’Connor bit the dust at the end of last season. What is surprising is the following nugget reported by Murray Kinsella this morning:

It’s understood that Leinster had moved to make Cullen permanent head coach, before IRFU performance director David Nucifora expressed his concerns.

What? Leinster are appointing an insider over the objections of the Union’s Performance Director? Now, we don’t know what those objections might be (coaching qualifications and experience, or something more benign) but that’s strange. Remember that part of Nucifora’s role is to “ensure that both playing and coaching talent is developed to provide a prosperous long-term future for the provincial and national teams”. It also raises another question – this has been rumoured for months, so Nucifora has had plenty of time to object.

As it stands, Cullen has a worryingly low amount of experience to take over as head coach of one of Europe’s top teams (at least in ambition) – he retired after winning the 2013-14 Pro12 and has one (disappointing) season as forwards coach behind him. By contrast, when Axel got the Munster job, he had retired six years previously (putting significant distance between himself and the then playing corps) and had the following experience:

  • 2 years as Munster A coach
  • 3 years as Munster forwards coach
  • 2 games as Irish Wolfhounds coach
  • 1 Six Nations as Ireland forwards coach

Even then, plenty of fans, Munster and otherwise, expressed the view that Axel was a bit raw for the job – and his all-Munster (© every piece Gerry wrote last season) coaching ticket certainly didn’t add any experience. At least Cullen hasn’t that problem, with Kurt McQuilkin and Richie Murphy in his backroom staff, alongside Girv the Swerve and John Fogs.

Leinster have had a decade of coaching stability due to an in-depth and considered appointment process – Cheika and Schmidt were huge successes and while O’Connor was something of a disaster, the process by which he was selected and appointed wasn’t to blame – it just didn’t work out.

Now, Cullen is a Leinster legend and a great guy, but if the likes of Nucifora are advocating appointing someone else, presumably a Penney-esque figure for him to serve under for a few years, it is not exactly the sort of all-encompassing endorsement that the Leinster branch would be looking for.  Presumably, Nucifora has been appeased, at least in so far as he can be.  Indications from earlier this summer are that Leinster did indeed cast the net wider in order to attract experienced coaches, but found the response to be less than overwhelming.  It’s a case of going with what appears to be the best available solution.

It calls into question just how attractive the provincial jobs are seen by for’d’ners.  To our own ferverishly passionate eyes, all we can see are the world class players, rousing rivalries with neighbouring provionces, stadia full of well-heeled fans and traditions of sporting excellence, but against that must be considered the high expectations, limited access to the best players and perhaps an increasing sense that the primary function is to serve the national team.  To an extent there appears to have been a sea change; Munster and Leinster now both boast indiginous head coaches, while Neil Doak oversaw Ulster’s bid for glory this season.  But is it that the Antipodean coaches of whom we appear to have been so fond are now out of vogue, or simply aren’t that interested any more?

When Jonny Wilkinson retired from playing, at the same time Cullen did, he moved into a coaching role with Toulon (he is a “specialist skills mentor” – whatever that is). It was acknowledged that, like Cullen, he has always been a leader and has performed a pseudo-coaching role most of his career. But no-one in their right minds considered appointing him as head coach after one season – because that would be fraught with risk in a sport where sustained success is not guaranteed. Leinster have been left with  little choice but to do just that.

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Rugby’s Great Institution

Between now and the World Cup, Ireland have .. let me count .. one, two, three, four, five games to go. Four of which are in the weeks before the squad needs to be named, with the other one being tonights knockaround against Rugby’s Great Institution in the library.

This time last year (roughly), Team Ireland were jetting off to Argentina for a few weeks of steak, malbec, Quilmes and some soft power photo ops at the Hurlingham Club and Newman College, with perhaps a few easy rugby games thrown in. But enough about Gerry – the squad weren’t expecting to be worked too hard either, and were taken aback at the intensity of Schmidt’s expectations when they got there. The main lesson learned is that Joe Schmidt will absolutely take every opportunity to run the arse off his players.

Which means you would be right to expect Ireland to approach this game as if they were playing BNZ in Dunedin – good performances will gain real credit with Schmidt and bad ones for fringe players might knock them out of RWC contention. The Munster players are unavailable and Connacht players have been rested – which isn’t really helpful to the likes of Matt Healy or Denis Buckley as they try to make an impression on the last few spaces in the RWC15 squad – so it’s an all Ulster/Leinster selection:

15. Rob Kearney
14. Dave Kearney
13. Colm O’Shea
12. Luke Marshall
11. Craig Gilroy
10. Ian Madigan
9. Eoin Reddan

1. Jack McGrath
2. Richardt Strauss
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. Devin Toner
5. Dan Tuohy
6. Robbie Diack
7. Chris Henry
8. Jamie Heaslip (captain)

Replacements:

16. Rob Herring
17. Michael Bent
18. Mike Ross
19. Ben Marshall
20. Jordi Murphy
21. Luke McGrath
22. Paddy Jackson
23. Cian Kelleher

Here’s our thoughts, with a working assumption of a 31 man squad breakdown of 6 props, 3 hookers, 4 second rows, 5 backrows, 3 scrummies, 2 outhalves, 3/4 centres, 4/5 back three:

  • Outhalf: Madigan gets the start ahead of Jacko, which is fully unwarranted on any measure of recent form. Under Matt O’Connor, Mads had a miserable time (maybe he didn’t understand the structures of Leinster rugby?) and has stalled in his development; whereas Jackson has been the form ten in Ireland since the Six Nations finished. The selection of Madigan here suggests the backup outhalf slot is still his to lose for the RWC
  • Centre: while it’s nice to see Collie O’Shea get a start, the really interesting pick is Bamm-Bamm. With Robbie Henshaw now ensconced at inside centre, it would be sensible to identify a like-for-like replacement in the case of injury – Schmidt being a systems man and all. One might have thought Stuart McCloskey was the likelier contender here, but he’s off to Georgia and Schmidt goes back to Marshall, who started in Schmidt’s first game against Southern Hemisphere opposition (the Wobs). Schmidt will bring 3 or 4 centres, and Marshall could be in the mix, which would be extraordinary, but with Olding injured and Madigan-to-12 looking half-baked at best, there are not many inside centres on the scene.
  • Wing: Craig Gilroy gets a well-deserved recall to green following an electric period of form for Ulster, joining a queue that includes Tommy Bowe, Zeebs, Luke Roysh, Keith Earls and his teammate Little Bob (it’s probably too late for Trimby) – and Felix Jones as a Schmidt favourite. A good display here, particularly if he outshines Dave, will probably cement a place in the wider RWC training squad, and then he has a good a chance as anyone
  • Tighthead Prop: MIKE ROSS IN NOT STARTING FOR IRELAND SHOCK! Which is a first since June 2012 (even if this is a non-capped game). If we bring three tightheads, Furlong is essentially duking it out with Nathan White, Stephen Archer (stop laughing at the back) and Rodney Ah Here for the final place.  Even if the RWC comes too soon for Furlong, this is money in the bank for further down the line
  • Loosehead Prop: similarly, the final loosehead prop will likely be one of James Cronin, Dave Kilcoyne (stop laughing at the back) and Michael Bent (we said stop!). Bent is on the bench here, and a decent cameo might force Schmidt to not completely eliminate him from contention
  • Second Row: Yer Man From Limerick, Big Dev and NWJMB are nailed on, leaving one slot for a Celebrity Deathmatch between Mike McCarthy, Dan Tuohy and Donnacha Ryan. Tuohy gets a start here, and this is a really good opportunity to make a statement and pencil himself into Schmidt’s plans. Tuohy and Ryan are a cut above McCarthy in terms of quality, and while both have been beset by injuries, if one or other can force their way into the panel it is good news.
  • Backrow: this is the most competitive line. We have NWJMB in the second row as Schmidt had him there during the Six Nations. Jamie Heaslip, Sean O’Brien and Peter O’Mahony are nailed on to be picked, leaving two seats between Chris Henry, Jordi Murphy, Tommy O’Donnell, Robbie Diack and Rhys Ruddock. Henry has long been a Schmidt favourite, and given he has proved his fitness, he would appear to be in the box seat for squad selection. Diack starts ahead of Murphy, with Ruddock missing out altogether – although he’ll play in Georgia. Which is .. um, not a good sign we suppose.

Maybe we are over-analysing, but, with Schmidt, that seems unlikely. Everything is now directed towards RWC15 – and this game will be worth watching.

Matty Gets The Chop

Matt O’Connor has been sacked by Leinster Rugby. It brings an end to an undistinguished chapter in Leinster’s history.  Now that he’s been shown the door, perfect hindsight allows us to see the recent public slapdowns from Joe Schmidt and Shane Jennings as the death throes of a dying regime.  The news will be well recieved by a fnabase which had grown frustrated by the team’s performances and results over the last number of months.

It’s alsp a little surprising, and the details of the exact status of the third year on his contract seemed to be shrouded in mystery, but the Leinster branch has bit the bullet. It’s the right decision; Matt O’Connor had his good days, none better than their victory over Glasgow which secured silverware in his first season, but while he was given a bit of a free pass in his first year for some of the error-strewn rugby he deployed, the second season was one of marked decline. Any glass-half-full analysis of his first season quickly evaporated as Leinster’s attack and set pieces became sloppier than ever. In short, the rugby Leinster have played has been dull, unambitious and inaccurate. The players spoke highly of O’Connor, but their actions on the pitch have spoken louder.  A third year of such torpor was unimaginable, and there was no signifier that things were about to improve.

It’s worth remembering that when O’Connor was hired, the keyword was ‘continuity’; Leinster’s previous coach had been a roaring success and O’Connor was seen as somebody who would be able to keep the train on the rails. He was seen as a coach with a similar profile, having been a No.2 at a big club, and his Wikipedia page described him as ‘steeped in the ethos of the ACT Brumbies’, which appeared to give off all the right vibes for a team which had come to be regarderd as the most accurate passing team in Europe. It’s been alarming just how little continuity he has provided, how different his ethos has been to Schmidt’s, and indeed how it appears to owe nothing whatsever to the ACT Brumbies.

The excusemakers in the meeja have repeatedly lined up the Sexton-O’Driscoll-Nacewa absenteeism argument, which has been a factor for sure, but doesn’t excuse the shoddy passing, directionless game-planning and ho-hum breakdown work that have littered every single game this season. There has been no occasion this year on which Leinster have cut loose and looked a great team, or even a potentially great one. Even in the days of Bad Leinster, they were able to conjure up occasional brilliant performances. The narrow loss in Toulon was held up in some quarters as ‘epic’, but the truth is it was a torpid match between two nervous teams content to hang in for as long as possible and wait for mistakes.

It seems from the outside that O’Connor simply didn’t ‘get’ Leinster. While the phrase ‘buying into the ethos’ of a province is almost always applied to Munster, it would appear that Matt O’Connor didn’t buy into the Leinster ethos, where the players and fans are used to playing the game with a certain style. That’s not out of a sense of entitlement, and nor does it make Leinster fans ‘spoiled’, just as much as Munster fans expecting their team to play with a certain level of ‘passion’ doesn’t make them entitled. It’s just in keeping with the identity of a province which has a long tradition of dashing three-quarters, and has operated on the principle of giving them the ball at least a few times a match. Every club or province has a sense of identity, something that makes them who they are, and if it’s going to be compromised it had damn well better be worth it.  O’Connor never really presented any evidence that his vision for Leinster Rugby was an improvement on the old one.

Judging by the players’ comments, O’Connor is an ‘enabler’, a Declan Kidney-style coach, who allows the players leeway to make their own decisions on the pitch. The players appear to like him, and he seems to be a decent fellow. But perhaps Leinster’s success has allowed people to forget that this is a group that has done best when dealing with hard and exacting taskmasters. It seems that despite the large medal hauls, they still benefit from the big stick treatment.

Now, for the tricky bit. Amid the hallooing that an unpopular coach has been shown the door, there remains the important job of identifying and securing his successor. Previous appointments have been put in place long before the season was over, with both Cheika and Schmidt giving notice of their plans to leave well in advance, affording the men upstairs ample time to identify the next recruit. That won’t be the case this time around, and the race is now on. The risk is that they fall into the same trap as Ulster, patching together solutions on a season-to-season basis. The only certainty is that it is only a matter of time before the likes of Graham Henry, Nick Mallett and – of course – Jake White are linked to the role.

The State of Denmark

Leo Cullen and Shane Jennings were considered something of a bellwether for the health of Leinster rugby in general in the noughties. When they jumped ship in 2005, it was considered a damning indictment of where Leinster were, and where they were (not) going. After two seasons abroad, their return was an endorsement of Cheika – the Wild Geese had bought into his vision for the province and were in a position to bring knowledge of one of the best professional setups in Europe and stand apart as exemplars of standards within the squad.

It was a model for successfully on-boarding a host of young Irish players of Lions standard that would backbone the team for a decade and more (Healy, O’Brien, Heaslip, Sexton, Fitzgerald, Kearney) handily augmented by selected foreigners like Rocky Elsom, Nathan Hines, Pippo Contepomi, Isa Nacewa and Brad Thorn. And of course, his BOD-ness.

Last year, Leo Cullen retired and joined the coaching staff as forwards coach and Shane Jennings is now repeating the trick – although he is getting out of rugger altogether and joining the big bad world of business instead. Cullen’s transition into the tracksuit has been difficult – Leinster’s on-field play has been as un-structured and aimless as it has been since before he left for the Tigers and the pack has been dragged along by Jamie Heaslip for much of the season – but the large stock of goodwill built up over the years has insulated him from much of the criticism being directed at the rest of the ticket. While it can be hard to parse exactly who deserves criticism for what, he should be reasonably culpable.  The stock-in-trade of most team’s forward play – mauling, rucking, set-piece, has been as poor as any of the other elements of Leinster’s play.  Against that, it’s his first season going it full-time and he needs some time to learn his trade.

As an insider, we are unlikely to learn Cullen’s true thoughts on where Leinster are right now – but that isn’t of course the case with Jennings, who can fire bazookas all he wants now he is getting out. And he took the opportunity to do just that, in conversation with O’Reilly on Sunday. Not many were spared:

  • He doesn’t see “selflessness” from Leinster’s international cohort where they work as hard as the non-international folks when they return from duty
  • On the flip side of that, he hasn’t seen the non-internationals take ownership of the team during November and February/March
  • He sees “guys” (players, coaches, both?) who have come into a HEC-winning environment without understanding what it took to get there

It was pretty damning stuff, which we would love to link but for the Times paywall, and it certainly should be very concerning from a Leinster perspective. The squad are certainly suffering from losing the on-field leadership of Cullen and BOD this season, and now they have someone considered something of a squad muse filleting the players’ attitude on the way out. It’s clear that whatever is going on at Leinster is not working on the pitch, and one has to suspect it isn’t working off the pitch either – while it’s fair to ask whether there is any residual bitterness over no longer being as close to the first XV in the past, the vast majority of Leinster fans would take Jennings’ thoughts at face value.  He has always appeared a thoughtful, considered type, and not one to throw his toys out of the pram.

The supreme irony of this is that Jennings’ official send-off to the fans came at half time in front of a half-full RDS in a damp squib of a game in which Leinster failed to score at home to Treviso for over an hour. He deserved better, and his parting words should be heeded by all.

Hashtag Isa Isa Isa

Today Leinster announced that bona fide Ledge-bag (D4 for Ligind) Isa Nacewa has re-signed with the province. The reaction from fans has been largely positive – and why not indeed, Nacewa being firmly established in the pantheon of all-time Leinster greats with the likes of Cameron Jowitt and Simon Keogh. No, that’s not right. But you get the idea – his contributions and leadership in his first spell were critical, particularly for the Joe Schmidt iteration of Leinster. He made key contributions to all three stars on the blue jersey, and his try against Leicester Tigers in 2011 will live long in the memory.

But why is he coming back? And why are Leinster signing him?

Nacewa has spent the last couple of years as “mental skills coach” for the Auckland Blues, whatever that is – while he has still been in a professional rugby environment, this isn’t the same thing as playing; there’s no tangible connection between the role and retaining match fitness or match sharpness.

A further curiosity is that the Leinster statement around his arrival is vague in terms of how long he is contracted for.  One imagines it will be a full season, maybe he’ll end up staying for longer, or perhaps he’s just arriving to perform the role Cillian Willis stepped into during the last World Cup; filling in for three months while Kearney, Fitzgerald, Madigan et al are off with Ireland.  Either way, nobody is especially keen to  make it clear.

If he is coming initially as RWC cover at outhalf / back three, it’s an ask to get him to match pitch in such a short time, even if the matches are against Treviso and the Dragons (who did the double over Leinster this year admittedly). If it’s for longer, it will be a huge ask for him to be even close to as good as he was. Matt O’Connor has lauded Nacewa’s hunger and sense of unfinished business, but that’s another stretch – if he was that hungry, why did he retire in the first place, and what unfinished business he could possibly have at a place where he won every team and individual gong going is something we can’t work out.

As for Leinster themselves, they have missed on-field leaders this year – the sky high standards that Leo Cullen and BOD held the team to have disintegrated, and disjointed messy performances have become the norm. This hasn’t been helped by the decline of the likes of Dorce, but it seems like only Jamie Heaslip is dragging Leinster to respectability (at best). It surely can’t hinder to have a guy with Nacewa’s experience and nous on the field. And if he is replacing Kirchner in the squad, it’s probably an upgrade; at least he’ll be willing to try a leg.

Still, with half of Australia and BNZ brandishing their passports and fluttering their eyelids at potential European suitors, the thought that a precious NIQ slot is going to be used up on what is essentially a luxury signing with pretty limited upside doesn’t smack of much ambition. It would be too Machiavellian to consider it a sop to a fan base unhappy with rank rugby and season ticket prices, but there aren’t many obvious on-pitch reasons to point to.

The best case scenario is probably a Nacewa that operates at 80% of previous peak, dragging those around him to those levels, and writing another chapter in the story. But the worst is that he fills the void left by Mils Muliaina and gets packed off without much fuss in 12 months time.

Mario Puzo, the creator of such philosophers as Michael Corleone, wrote “What is past is past. never go back. Not for excuses. Not for justification, not for happiness.”. Let’s hope those words don’t ring in Leinster and Nacewa’s ears in 2016.

Ulster’s Resurgence

Leinster’s season is over after losing comprehensively to Ulster on Friday night in Ravers. It was an opportunity to back up their performance in Toulon – if indeed it you believed that performance to be as good as some claimed it was – and the opportunity was missed. Sure, Leinster were always going to struggle in the last 20 minutes after a tight turnaround and extra time last week, but they only played for 10, after which Ulster owned the ball and controlled the game with ease.

Worst of all for Leinster, it is another defeat in a sobering run where they have won two out of ten matches. They have lost the winning feeling. Last season and earlier in this, for all the dour, error-strewn rugby on display, they at least had the nous for how to win matches. They came out the right side of the scoreboard in any number of tight games; the trend has reversed, and they now find themselves under pressure to hold on to fifth place, and could yet find themselves in a playoff to ensure they are in the Champions Cup next year. With respect to Embra and the Scarlets, it would amount to an embarrassment, and surely the last nail in the coffin for the O’Connor regime.

As for the good ship Ulster, it sails on. They hardly fired a shot in Europe this year, but that would all be forgotten if they won the Pro12. At the risk of stating the bleedin’ obvious, it is remarkable what a difference having three of their best forwards back playing can make. Remarkable insight, I’m sure you’ll agree, but Dan Tuohy, Chris Henry and Iain Henderson are such a step up in quality from Lewis Stevenson, Clive Ross and Mike McComish that the side cannot help but be transformed.

Another key to their form is the resurgence of Paddy Jackson, who was outstanding on Friday night. With Ian Madigan’s confidence bound to be at a low, Jackson surely comes back into the reckoning for not just the World Cup squad, but the test 23 on this form. While Jimmy Gopperth made a couple of terrific breaks which look amazing, they are ultimately no substitute for an ability to consistently get the backline moving on to the ball in a threatening manner; something Gopps has struggled with all season, but which Jackson accomplishes with natural grace. Subtly timed passes at the right height and pace for the receivers may not look as flash as running 30m and breaking tackles, but over the course of 80 minutes they add up to a lot more. It’s notable just how much Ulster get Bowe and Gilroy into the game, and the result is that Gilroy – another who could come back into the international picture on form – is the league’s leading tryscorer. He’s got his mojo back.

Whether they have the depth, or the quality at No.8, to mount a serious challenge in Europe next year is open to question, but for now that doesn’t really matter. It’s all about winning the Pro12. For all the progress over the last few years, they’ve yet to win anything, frequently losing their composure once the competition switches to a knockout format. Last year they struggled to convert pressure into points when in the red zone. This year they have looked more efficient, with the backline a potent threat.

At this point, they look pretty unlikely to lose to anyone at Ravers, and with a guaranteerd home final, it would seem that winning the big (ish) one requires one big away win out of maximum two attempts; they must either win in Scotstoun to ensure they force Munster or the Hairsprays to travel north, or failing that, go to Thomond Park to beat Munster. Neither is in any way easy, but Ulster are one of the few teams for whom a trip to Thomond Park brings little fear, and they have had some notable results there in recent years. They are the team in the tournament with all the momentum, and the final being in Ravenhill should only add to their motivation. And they have Iain Henderson.  They can’t lose, right?

Leinster’s Rubbish Season – Still

Leinster bowed out of Europe with a narrow defeat to Toulon.  The game was far closer than expected, going to extra time and was ultimately settled by a cheaply surrendered intercept try.  For all the fears that Leinster would be beaten out the gate, they got stuck in, and buoyed by a strong set piece and better discipline than their hosts, stayed in the match right until the end.  Indeed, had Jimmy Gopperth nailed a pretty makeable drop goal near the end they might even have made it to the final, which would have been extraordinary.  It’s not his specialty: that was Jimmy’s third clutch-drop goal miss of the season, and he looked like he needed to be a couple of metres further back in the pocket.

The match ultimately followed a familiar pattern to recent semi-finals involving Irish provinces, this time with Leinster replacing Munster in the role of gallantly losing underdogs.  Twice in recent years, an unfancied Munster took their amply remunerated French opponents to the wire, and lapped up the plaudits in the process for their noble efforts.  But on both those occasions they lost.

Amid the halooing over bravery and fronting up and such, it shouldn’t be lost in the wash that this was one pig-ugly game of rugby.  Robert Kitson tweeted that it was the ‘worst Euro semi-final anyone can remember’ and he was not wrong.  Sky Sports did an admirable job claiming that it was compelling, even if it lacked, y’know, tries, line-breaks or any frisson of anything, and the Champions Cup twitter handle was doing it’s odious thing by retweeting tweets from delusional viewers claiming the match was fantastic.  Purr-lease spare us.  Most of it was awful, and really quite boring.  Sure, any close game will throw up a bit of drama at the end, but even that was hardly the stuff of legend, unless you’re really into missed drop goals or swing-and-hope penalties from 55 metres.  Over on Eurosport you could instead have watched the Amstel Gold Race, a Dutch classic bike race, where nobody took any risks, hoping to still be in it at the decisive final climb.  One was a bike race, the other a rugby match, but they weren’t all that different.

Once the misty-eyed reverence for defending and not being thrashed by a Toulon side who themselves were utterly devoid of any creativity passes, it will have to be accepted that this wasn’t really all that different to the garbage Leinster have played over the rest of the season.  Certainly, their forwards fronted up to deliver a decent platform.  Undoubtedly, their set piece was improved.  And they didn’t go walkabout for a full quarter of the game, which is a big improvement on the norm.  But the same commitment to woefully narrow attacking and aimless kicking of the ball was on full display.  At no point in the first 80 minutes did they look even remotely like scoring a try.  In the first half they made four gainlines and carried for a collective 34 metres. Manning up in the set piece and making tackles is about the minimum demand that should be placed on a team in a European semi-final.  They did just that, they put their bodies on the line, they were disciplined, the fans can be proud of their team; but they still played an awful lot of abject filth.  The midfield of Madigan and Te’o played as if they had met each other for the first time that morning.  To these eyes, Madigan’s pass for the intercept wasn’t especially floaty, but the runners in the 13 and 14 channel were running too laterally, away from the ball.

Things changed after that moment.  In the second period of extra time, now having to chase the game and with Eoin Reddan at scrum half, Leinster upped the tempo, made significant ground off a number of phases where quick ball was plentiful and ultimately manufactured a try.  A try!  It was their first in Europe since the first half against Wasps, all of 200+ rugby minutes ago.  However, it only served to highlight how limited the gameplan had been up to that point.  It is well and good playing a certain way when chasing the game, but what was required was the bravery to play that way  when the match was there for the winning.  Instead, Leinster’s only attacking plan appeared to be a low-flying cross-field kick that even if caught gained no more than a handful of metres.

So that’s it.  Leinster’s dignity is intact, but it doesn’t really change much.  The season has been a poor one.  This was not the Toulon piloted by Nicolas Sanchez, which filleted Ulster; this was a team with Michalak at 10 having one of his rubbish days, Matt Giteau unable to influence the match and an old pack looking leggy after a long winter.  Forget the reverence for their star names; they were there for the taking.  The Irish Times have continued, this morning, to treat Leinster fans like a sort of baying mob, saying their ‘largely ignorant’ criticism of Matt O’Connor should be put on pause for a while now.  Largely ignorant?  Did they read Demented Mole’s piece last week and conclude this?  And the assertion is wrong in any case.  Leinster fronted up here, but they need to be aiming for one rung higher than coming out the losing side of the worst semi-final anyone can remember.

Leinster’s Rubbish Season

In recent years it’s been customary to berate Munster for showing a somewhat half-hearted approach to the Pro12, almost turning up their nose at the second most important piece of silverware on offer. So it seems only fair that the heat should be turned up on Leinster for what has been a terrible Pro12 campaign. Leinster have been the most consistent side in the league over a number of seasons, finishing in the top 3 for the last decade and in recent years routinely getting to the final (and often losing it, but no matter). It was always a badge of honour among their fanbase that their team sees the pot as more than a ‘tin cup’ consolation prize.

Winning the league in 2007 on the back of a number of hard-fought away wins against the likes of Cardiff (a half-decent side back then) and Munster (also pretty decent back then) gave them the platform to contest the Heineken Cup the following year. The league matters to Leinster, so it matters when they perform dreadfully in it.  It also has significant repurcussions, and will see them in the pot of third seeds in next year’s European Cup draw, increasing the likelihood of a nasty pool featuring the likes of Toulon or Clermont and Saracens.

This year’s slump to fifth counts as their worst league performance in some time. Allowing the Dragons to do the double over you is a standard that no Leinster team should fall beneath, but they have limboed under the bar with ease.  Had they won those two games they’d be in the hunt for the semi-finals.

In many senses, this has been a season where the chickens have come home to roost. There was much trumped-up talk about ‘winning ugly’ early in the season, but we were quick to call the players and coaching staff out on that. ‘Winning ugly’ tends to be a euphemism for playing rubbish rugby and squeezing out wins against low-quality opponents. There’s nothing aspirational about winning ugly, but the Leinster coaching staff seemed a little too proud of it. But bad habits die hard, and sure enough as the ugly rugby has continued, the results have begun to slide.

The Mole’s outstanding analysis leaves little room for us to add anything of value, but of all the frustrations, the biggest for this fan is Leinster’s intra-match inconsistency. They do not seem capable of performing for 60, let alone 80 minutes, and they appear to sleepwalk through a 20 or 30, or 40 minutes spell in every match. It is also difficult to identify a single facet of play that this Leinster side excels at. It’s one thing setting your stall up to play a narrow gameplan, but it’s entirely another to execute even that so cackhandedly. As for Leinster’s set pieces, they’ve been fair-to-poor all year. The massive difference between December/January Mike Ross at Leinster and February/March Mike Ross for Ireland is so stark as to be embarrassing. It’s almost reaching Welsh levels where the likes of Warbs and, previously, Dr Roberts dial it in for Cardiff and turn into world-beaters in red.

[Aside: this “Welsh exceptionalism” was used to excuse Deccie’s Ireland team their poor performances and results, but was nonsense then and is nonsense now. Cardiff were a mess, Wales were not, Ireland were a mess then, and Leinster now are a mess as well]

Leinster’s sole saving grace is that they have somehow made it to the last four in Europe. They are blessed to have done so. Harlequins should have beaten them when they had their foot on Leinster’s throat in Dublin – that’s the same Harlequins who are in the bottom half of the Premiership, and were missing Nick Evans on the night. Leinster surrendered a 14-point advantage against Wasps, and most recently beat Bath only by a result of Bath’s own indiscipline. Had Quins or Bath greater inner belief, and more experience at the pointy end of European rugby, Leinster would be out. They have Ian Madigan’s boot and Jamie Heaslip’s sheer bloody-mindedness to thank for still being here.

So now, the season hinges entirely on a single game against Toulon, and it is one which we do not give them a hope in hell of winning. If the match was played out 10 times, Toulon would win all 10. It will leave their season looking a lot like Munster’s final year under the McGahan regime, where they fortuitously navigated their way through a benign Heineken Cup pool, but played badly for most of the season, and once they exited Europe in the knockout stages (in their case, the quarter final at home to Ulster) were left to reflect on a campaign where practically nothing has been achieved, and were finally whacked and bagged by the Ospreys in a harrowing 40-burger defeat.

That Munster team had the advantage of having a core of forwards and young backs to build a side around – the likes of Sherry, Kilcoyne, O’Mahony, O’Donnell, Murray, Earls and Zebo were going to be around for the long haul; and they had Paul O’Connell in the middle of it all. That turned out to be the nadir, and the appointment of Rob Penney and a coherent coaching ticket allowed them to get back somewhere close to respectability. Of course, Penney was shafted in a questionable strategic move and Teflon Axel has taken over – but they are nowhere near where they were three years ago.

With Leinster re-signing a 33 year old Isa Nacewa, who hasn’t played a game in anger in two years, as one of their precious NIQs, one has to wonder about strategic direction. He’s either the best they can get, or the height of their ambition for the backline. Neither sounds particularly inspiring. Leinster still have a talented, relatively young and deep squad of forwards, but the backline depth chart is shallow and low on quality. Jonny Sexton is coming back, but they have two old scrum-halves, a cobbled together centre partnership, and a depth chart in the back three that has necessitated reliance on AIL players like Fanj and Hipster’s Choice Mick McGrath for months at a time. The leadership of Brian O’Driscoll and Leo Cullen is sorely missed.

It feels like someone needs to get a grip and break the team out of a comfort zone. The players themselves seem to love Matt O’Connor, which is nice, and want to do something for him, but it’s pretty clear something isn’t working, and it’s worth remembering how little they loved Cheika, who could be cantankerous, but got results.  The hunt for Matt O’Connor’s successor starts on Monday morning.

David? Are You There?

Hot on the heels of the news Paddy Butler will be joining Kiwis Smuddy and Colin Slade at (nouveau riche) Pau next season came the news that Michael Allen would not only be leaving Ulster for Embra, but be leaving the Irish system altogether, with a view to qualifying for Scotland through residency.

Butler, a ball carrying number 8 who can deputize on the flanks, was finding his path at Munster blocked by CJ Stander (Irish in 6 months) and Robo-Copey – both of whom are going nowhere and, being only on the fringes of the Ireland setup, won’t be away for weeks at a time to give Butler gametime. Up north, Allen, a wing who has spent significant time at centre, was behind a long queue of internationals – Trimble, Bowe and Gilroy on the wing and Marshall, McCloskey, Cave, Olding and Payne in the centre. The logic of leaving their current provinces is hard to argue with in both cases.

However, it seems worth questioning why they are leaving the Irish setup altogether – Ulster might have plucked Paul Browne from the Bucuresti Welsh bench just last week, but they are extremely light in the back row. Until Hendo and Henry returned, they were regularly picking from Robbie Diack, Clive Ross, Naughty Nuck and Roger Wilson, and are in dire need of a decent number 8. Butler was marked as one to watch from underage but hasn’t quite made the breakthrough at his home province – wouldn’t have been worth at least exploring a move to Ulster?

Ditto Allen – Matt Healy aside, are any of the Connacht wings clearly better than the Ulsterman? Gametime would have been virtually assured – not at ERC level, but then that’s not guaranteed at Embra either.

Fans tend to overstate the extent to which player movement can be achieved.  There is an occasional tendency to view players like Panini stickers, which can be swapped around at will: ‘I’ll swap you two centres for a backrow, a lock and a sherbet dib-dab.’  But the idea of removing log-jams in various positrions with a bit of delicate prompting has been long-mooted as something David Nucifora is striving to achieve, but has been scarcely visible to date.

Given the general dearth of inter-provincial movement, one wonders what the plans are for this aspect of Nucifora’s role – he can’t force players into another province, but he can certainly tempt them with promises of gametime, and some cash. The alternatives for Butler and Allen are certainly exciting, but does it really benefit Irish rugby when there are NIQ restrictions on the one hand, and clear positional needs in other provinces on the other? It feels like a sub-optimal use of a scarce resource.

The Mole mentioned earlier this month how Munster brought in Pat Howard as a medical joker earlier this season – Howard did more or less what was expected of him, but left virtually zero legacy in Irish rugby. We don’t even know if the option of bringing in a centre from Ulster or Leinster on a short term loan was on the table, but that, at least, would have produced some long-term benefit to Irish rugby, even if small. Do we need to think a bit more expansively?

Squeaky Bum Time

Egg was minding his own business contemplating watching Jurassic Park III on <insert rubbish cable TV channel> on Saturday night when he noticed a tweet from a chap he’d never heard of. No, not the Examiner’s chief rugby correspondent, but “Paul Morgan”. Morgan had the following to say for himself: “The key thing since European qualification has changed… People are talking about and caring about the Pro12 more than ever”.

It was only after one of our eagle-eyed followers pointed it out that we noticed Morgan was Communications Director for Premiership Rugby aka the lackey of McCafferty, Craig and co. Sigh. Propaganda justifying a position held for monetary reasons then? Well, in Morgan’s case, yes, obviously. Unless this view, which is his own of course, happily happened to mirror 100% the views of his mates (and paymasters in this case). It’s nice when that happens, isn’t it? – kind of like when Charlie Mulqueen points out that it wasn’t Denis Hurley’s fault that Munster got knocked out of Europe, and his stint at 12 was an unreserved success story. Right.

Anyway, back to Morgan. Problem is, fulminate away, but when you have finished thumping your John Knox-signed bible/infusing your olive oil with white truffle/singing Amhran na bFiann extremely passionately/going to Saw Doctors concerts (delete as appropriate depending upon provincial affiliation), you’ll realize that he’s right. Maybe for the wrong reasons, but he’s right.

Take Friday night’s Cardiff-Connacht game for example – Cardiff’s last minute win was exciting sure, and would have been equally exciting in years gone by, but it meant a whole lot more this time. Cardiff kept their faint hopes of an ERCC slot alive, and kept Connacht close to the chasing pack at the same time – and the huge roar at the final whistle spoke volumes to the importance of the game for the league as a whole, as well as both teams. And the bizarre story Pat Lam had to tell about parking spaces and refereeing bias in the heat of passion would likely not have made it to print were it a meaningless mid-table clash. Less two bald men fighting over a comb, more two thinning on top men fighting over the right to be fed to Toulon in bite-size chunks.

At the top of the Pro12, there are five teams who are more or less qualified for the ERCC – Glasgae, Munster, Ulster, Ospreys and Leinster – and four of them will make the knockouts. Glasgow have the top spot more or less sewn up, but behind them it’s three into four.  The Irish provinces have just come off the back of a torrid weekend, with all four losing to their somewhat less illustrious, regionally composite Welsh counterparts.  A portent of doom for next weekend?  Hopefully not.

Leinster are in a bit of a jam, lying in fifth, but they are still in the reckoning.  They have still to play both Ulster and Glasgae, and are well in the reckoning.  They have made an unusual habit of throwing points away against the poorer teams in the league this year, and chances are they will have to go to Ravenhill and win.  They are also the only team in the competition that has European distractions ahead of them.

Ulster and Munster are locked on have the toughest fixtures, with only two home games and three against fellow top five teams. Their meeting on the penultimate weekend may swing it – not only do Ulster have a good record against Munster, but its in Ravers, so advantage Ulster for that one.

One of the hapless Italians will join the big five in Europe, plus one of Connacht, Scarlets, Embra (or maybe – at a stretch – Cardiff). Scarlets host Embra next, and also have games against both hapless Italians – albeit away. They are entitled to be considered favourites to nab the final spot. From an Irish perspective, Connacht will need to earn it the hard way if they are to qualify – with games against each of the current top 4 to come. Perhaps they should, y’know, reserve a parking spot for the ref at the dog track..