Joe Knows

Ireland 29 South Africa 15.  It was a win of such accurate execution, discipline and adherence to a superb gameplan that it’s almost impossible to say anything interesting or worthwhile about it.

Seventeen injured players became eighteen on the morning of the game as Chris Henry fell foul of a virus. Never mind, Ireland won anyway, by 29-15 and Rhys Ruddock played so well it was almost a relief to have something we could level at Schmidt: ‘Why the hell was this guy not in the team in the first place?’

We said that pre-emptively criticising Joe Schmidt’s selections was a bad idea, but for some reason we went ahead and did it anyway. And once again we find ourselves in the hole. His seemingly experimental midfield worked a treat with Henshaw in particular exceptionally robust at 12, and with a touch of class to boot. His kick behind the defence to set up the platform for Ruddock’s try was sublime.  Payne also contributed in defence and his best moment in attack was a great support line off the peerless Rob Kearney.  Richadt Strauss’ selection on the bench raised a few eyebrows, but he had a superb impact when he replaced Sean Cronin.  Joe knows.

The story of the game everyone knows; Ireland’s lineout and scrum creaked badly but they made up for it by pulverising the breakdown and being more accurate and better disciplined than their opponents. They had less territory and less possession than South Africa, but made better decisions and executed better when it mattered. The half-backs dominated their opponents.  They worked the scoreboard with impressive regularity, while South Africa missed their opportunities to do so, and in the last 20 minutes of the first half they had plenty.

Ireland’s record against The Other Two southern hemisphere nations isn’t bad – on their own turf anyway, but few wins have been as convincing or with such sound foundations. Ireland have had scalps before, but usually as a backlash against previous rubbish performances and wounded pride. Not so here.

A special mention for the half-backs. Before last year’s Six Nations we remarked that Sexton and Murray had world-class ability, but now was the time to unleash their ‘test match animal’ and become not fleetingly great players, but those who consistently dominate test matches. The call has been met, and arguably both are now operating at the peak of their powers. Sexton has tended to prefer playing with a ‘servant’, a scrum half who sees his job as being to give him the ball. Eoin Reddan has understood this role and executed it superbly at Leinster, but Conor Murray is no junior partner. It’s taken them a while to gel, but now they have done so the results are, and will continue to be, astonishing. It’s a half-back pairing for the ages.

The glass suddenly looks not so much half-full as brimming over. Injuries? Who cares? Australia? Let’s take them. We’ve a shot at a three-win series. The possibilities are huge. There’s no need to urge the team to ‘front up’ or ‘grasp the nettle’ because we know that under this coach, cold hard detail, accuracy and execution of an appropriate gameplan will be used to deconstruct the opposition. It looks increasingly like the best coach in the world is coaching the Ireland team. Momentum is being built and a world cup is less than twelve months away. These are heady times.

by whiffofcordite on November 10, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Ireland, Joe Schmidt

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 10, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/11/10/joe-knows/

What Fresh Madness Is This?

Joe Schmidt has named his team to face South Africa.

There has been some talk of Australia being the main focus this month and the team bears this out to some extent. With most of the positions picking themselves with injury to key players removing any would-be hard calls, the only position where there is a real decision to make is the midfield. And it’s there that Schmidt has taken a somewhat experimental route, with the rumoured Henshaw-Payne axis coming to pass.  No, folks, it wasn’t a ruse to wind up the Indo, hilarious as that would have been.

It sure is an odd one, because Gordon D’arcy is fit and ready to go and the obvious selection was the experienced Wexford man alongside one or other of Payne and Henshaw. Another more plausible possibility would be to bring in Olding or Madigan at 12, if D’arcy is indeed less than 100% fit, since both have been playing there, and playing well too, this season. There’s probably a specific gameplan wedded to the selection, and we’ll just have to wait and see what that is. Word on the ground is they trained well together while Dorce was recovering.  Henshaw’s a big strong lad, but probably not used to defending the traffic-heavy 12 channel. And Payne still looks a better full-back than a centre, though his footballing class is not in doubt. Our major concern is that both of them are playing in positions which are not their best.  On their first test starts.  Against South Africa.

The selection of Felix Jones on the bench is odd, even allowing for specialist 15 cover for Bob’s recently-crocked status. Simon Zebo has started a test there, and Payne and Henshaw have spent plenty of time there as well. Wing cover (Craig Gilroy) or even an extra playmaker (Stuart Olding) might have given the bench more game-breaking pizzazz, on the off-chance we are still in it after 60 minutes.

Criticising Schmidt’s selections before matches has tended to be a losing trade, and we have come out the wrong side of it ourselves too many times, and really should know better. To give two examples, against Clermont Auvergne we questioned the wisdom of picking Jennings and Boss, and in last year’s Six Nations we disagreed with the decision to retain the same first team for the Italy game, when the opportunity to freshen things up and rest some bodies for the French match looked appealing. On both occasions, Schmidt’s selections were vindicated. We also harrumphed a bit over Simon Zebo’s omission from the Six Nations, but nobody could argue with the outcome, and Simon Zebo’s attitude since has shown all the hallmarks of someone who is hungry to learn and improve.  So let’s hope that after the game we’re declaring this new midfield as a masterstroke.

Winning this match looks beyond Ireland, and to be fair, that applies no matter how the midfield is set up. The injury list is simply more than our squad can take. As well as 17 unavailable players, it’s hard to see just how sharp Rob Kearney, Mike Ross and Chris Henry can be. Ross, in particular, can hardly be expected to last the full match, which means Rodney Ah Here will have to play at some stage, possibly for as many as 20 minutes. It doesn’t bear thinking about.

by whiffofcordite on November 6, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Ireland, Joe Schmidt, RWC15, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 6, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/11/06/what-fresh-madness-is-this/

Daddy, or Chips? Or Both?

With our swollen injury list and a lack of convincing cause celebre in the provinces (who are largely playing like drains), there is a dearth of the traditional interprovincial bickering selection dilemmas. Ross vs Moore – Moore injured. Toner vs Henderson – Henderson injured. O’Brien vs Henry vs O’Mahony (a potentially delicious dilemma) – O’Brien injured. Sexton vs O’Connor – O’Connor injured. Zeebs vs Dave Kearney – Dave Kearney injured, Zeebs qualifies for next round of the bicker-off vs Craig Gilroy.

Which leaves us with but one biggun – centre. It looked like a straight shootout to wear the ICONIC NUMBER 13 JERSEY ™, but rumours are circulating that with Darcy sort-of carrying a knock, and Ireland already looking at fielding several players who are only recently recovered or less than 100% fit (Henry, Kearney and Ross spring to mid) that D’arcy won’t be risked and the possibility of both Henshaw and Payne playing together has been raised.

If so, it’s an unusual call.  Debuting one player in the midfield would be one thing; two at the same time, and possibly putting both into positions with which they are unfamiliar (if it is to be 12 Henshaw, 13 Payne) would be asking a lot of both.  Surely better to have Darcy’s experience alongside whichever is to be the chosen one?  If Payne were to play inside centre presumably it would to be to benefit from his distribution, with Henshaw outside him.  But that would be equally odd because Ireland have two options who are both playing well in that very role this season; Stuart Olding and Ian Madigan.  Why shoehorn Payne into the role when specialists are available?

Henshaw is a big chap whose best attributes are his athleticism. The bludgeon, they say. But it’s not that simple – it rarely is. Henshaw is skillful enough in space to have spent time at full-back and plenty of big centres have been more piano players than shifters – Yannick Jauzion or Shontayne Hape for example. Sorry, not the last one – but someone like Manu Tuilagi is less of a bosh merchant than Barnesy will have you believe.  We’ve no idea how Henshaw’s skills would transfer to 12, but he’s a strong tackler and a hard runner, so he has at least some of the attributes.

The outside centre is the key defensive link in the backline, and the reality is that both are relative newcomers to Ireland’s defensive system.  Schmidt will have some knowledge of how Payne fits in from Agent Kiss’ undercover role at Ravers and from recent training camps – the fact Payne is still in contention likely speaks to some degree of confidence from the brains trust (© Gerry) that he can do the job to some degree.

That said, it’s pretty obvious Payne has not fitted in easily at 13 for Ulster – if he had, there is probably a good chance he would be inked in already for Ireland. Peter O’Reilly made the point this weekend that playing outside Stuart McCloskey is hardly conducive to making much of an impact – we aren’t quite buying that one, but we do recognise that, without Ruan Pienaar, an already half-injured Wee PJ is standing miles behind Paul Marshall (to catch errant passes?) and the space outside is getting compressed. Payne outside Murray/Sexton is a much tastier proposition – and if Payne gets the space he routinely exploits from 15 for Ulster at 13, that’s excellent news. But will he?  Playing the Boks can be a suffocating experience.

One thing’s for sure, Payne’s birthplace won’t come into it.  Schmidt got visibly annoyed in the spring about having to field questions about picking naturalized foreigners like Robbie Diack and Rodney Ah Here  – he rightfully says that naturalization rules are what they are, and he will pick the best players available for Ireland. If it comes down to a cigarette paper between Payne and Henshaw, accent will not come into it. While a bias of commentators and fans towards the “real” Irishman are understandable, and as a nation we are still a bit queasy about the naturalisation laws, it won’t be a factor for the Milky Bar Kid.

We have been wavering all week – on Saturday, we were slightly in the Henshaw camp, but O’Reilly wrote a good piece extolling what Payne could bring to Ireland – it’s easy to forget in the blizzard of negative coverage of his Ulster 13 experience, possibly coloured by his sending off against Saracens, that he is a fantastic footballer, good enough to play underage for BNZ and shine as an attacking threat in Ulster teams containing Tommy Bowe, Paddy Wallace and Ruan Pienaar.

The first game is against the mighty Springboks, who have selected a centre partnership of Jean de Villiers (not his twin, who showed up at Munster) and Jan Serfontein – two excellent footballers and two big men. Are we going to bludgeon through them? Unlikely – we are waifs in comparison. Are we going to play around them? Possibly – but more likely with Payne. Can they bludgeon through us? Definitely – Henshaw minimises this risk. Can they play around us? Definitely – Serfontein is an excellent footballer with an eye for a gap who has long been tipped for Bok caps – that’s a risk no matter who plays.  Whatever way we set up the midfield, it’s a bloody hard game.  Are we about to get a curveball and find Henshaw and Payne thrown in together?  From this vantage point, it would make it all the harder.

by whiffofcordite on November 5, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 5, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/11/05/daddy-or-chips-or-both/

Cold November Rain

Wow. Isn’t this exciting – we haven’t engaged in a proper spat of inter-provincial bickering since … February? By the time March came along, Ireland were gathering pace en route to a Championship and it seemed churlish, then it was all a bit half-hearted when Argentina came along. But now it’s here – yay!  November internationals!

But seriously, Schmidt’s first season was incredible – nearly beating BNZ, then winning the Championship. Like Deccie, who had an incredibly effective beginning to his tenure, the challenge will be backing that up with a second season – one that will effectively ends in a World Cup. Also like Deccie, the Milky Bar Kid got part of his success from a bounce from a previous season that didn’t reflect the real quality in the team – merely a previous coaching regime that had run its course. Eddie’s control freakery gave way to Deccie’s delegation to the players; which was in turn replaced by Schmidt’s technical coaching brilliance. Can the initial bounce be backed up?

One can reasonable expect some reversion to the mean this season, and retaining the Six Nations will be something they haven’t done since 1949 (although they shared in 1983 when going for a repeat, they would have finished second under today’s rules). While we should be realistic about what expectations for this season are – two wins in November, four in the Six Nations are the par score for this group – they have set their own standards. Also, its worth being aware that the players were grumbling about the tough schedule Schmidt put them through in Argentina – its unlikely that will drop off, and some degree of fatigue is a risk. Plus you-know-who has left a gaping hole in the team.

Two wins in the coming weeks means beating Australia or the Boks – all indications are the Wobbly game wil be the one targeted (like BNZ last year) and, given the injuries we have, and the scratchy form of the provinces, its a tough ask. Still – it makes sense to go for Oz – beating the Boks is tough enough, but without your primary ball carriers it’s virtually impossible – and we have lost DJ Church, Sean O’Brien, Iain Henderson and Andrew Trimble. That said, it’s not all bad – O’Brien missed the entire Six Nations, Henderson was a sub in that tournament and Church and Trimby would be adequately replaced by Tommy Bowe and Jack McGrath. Puts pressure on depth though, doesn’t it.

The first choice pack pretty much picks itself given the missing list – McGrath, Besty, Ross, Toner, O’Connell, POM, Henry, Heaslip. Only one man different from the 6N pack, but Besty is struggling for form, Ross needs matchtime to get up to speed, and Chris Henry hasn’t quite been at his best of late. Sean Cronin will provide decent bacup, another strong carrier and potential for weapons-grade impact late in matches, and will start one game minimum, but the rest of the forward squad ranges from the potential of Rhys Ruddock to the dicky lungs of Rodney Ah Here.

We’d ideally like to see a couple of names pitched in to see if they sink or swim – the likes of James Cronin, Dave Foley and Dom Ryan might have something to offer to the squad in a RWC year – they might sink without trace,  but at least we’d know – and we know what Dave Kilcyone, Mike McCarthy and Robbie Diack can do – and it’s not of the highest level. Ryan will most likely have to wait for the Georgia game but Cronin and Foley could make the bench against South Africa.  Two of Ah Here, Stephen Archer and Tadgh Furlong are likely to get the dubious honour of scrummaging against the monstrous Georgians – gulp.

In the backline, Conor Murray and J-Sex are miles ahead of their backups. The vigils for Sexton’s hamstring can begin now. Ian Keatley got rewarded for some decent early season form over a semi-fit Wee PJ but we suspect Ian Mad-Dog is Schmidt’s number 2, though he has only started at 10 once this season.  One suspects they’ll do whatever possible to get Sexton on the pitch. In RWC terms, Eoin Reddan and Kieran Marmion are pretty much on the plane – but we’d like to see Marmion get a start and see how he does – against Georgia he might be behind a pack being marched backwards early on.

And now, ah yes – time for the centres. We know this – Dorce will start against the Boks and Stuart Olding will see gametime at some point. Who will play outside? The concensus seems to have settled on Robbie “bosh” Henshaw (largely because BOD says it is so), but O’Reilly thinks Schmidt will value Jared Payne’s distribution and running angles more that the directness of the Connacht man. It certainly makes sense not to give Jean de Villers and Jan Serfontein what they eat for breakfast, but Payne has been pretty rubbish at 13 for Ulster. One suspects Schmidt won’t let the two guys shoot out on the field – there simply isn’t enough time for that – he’ll make his selection and stand by it. If it’s to be Payne or if it is to be Henshaw, let’s all make an effort, similar to the 2012 Six Nations when Keet Earls played the entire tournament there, to not jump down his throat each time he Isn’t BOD.

Provided they are fully fit, Bob and Tommy Bowe will be inked into the team – Trimble is a big loss but Bowe is a pretty decent replacement to have. The other wing spot, in shades of a more innocent era (2012), appears to be between Craig Gilroy and Simon Zeebs. Schmidt doesn’t appear to be a massive fan of Zebo, while Gilroy looks to have returned to some impressive form this year after his career stalled last season.  Nonetheless, while Zebo hasn’t been quite as stellar with ball-in-hand, he appears to be putting a lot of effort into working really, really hard and brings a decent kicking game; he might just shade it.  Zebo and Bowe for Trimble and Dave Kearney; it might be injury-enforced but Ireland don’t appear to be losing too much in the trade.

We already know Joe Schmidt is an excellent coach and Ireland have excellent players – if the success or failure of this series comes down to the Wobbly game, he’ll be up against another excellent coach and a team of excellent players. In a RWC year, its a good judge of where we are at, and how the team is shaping up – for you can be sure we won’t have a full deck in 11 months time.

by whiffofcordite on November 3, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Ireland, Joe Schmidt, RWC15, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 3, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/11/03/cold-november-rain/

Who is going to carry the ball?

With the two rounds of European Rugby out of the way, focus turns to the November internationals. As usual, a daunting program looms, with South Africa, Australia and Georgia coming to town. Two wins will be the pass mark.

Ireland have injuries aplenty, the two most damaging of which are Cian Healy and Sean O’Brien, unquestionably two of Ireland’s small set of world class players, and crucially, two of their best ball carriers. Ireland have decent replacements for each. Jack McGrath is a stalwart on the loosehead side of the scrum and both Chris Henry was a constant in Ireland’s Six Nations winning campaign, when Ireland were also without O’Brien. Both bring much to the game, but neither can quite replicate the sort of explosive ball carrying and ability to win the contact battle that Healy and O’Brien provide. Leinster’s struggles are probably a reasonable barometer for how hard it is to get momentum without your best carriers available.

The loss of two such warriors is compounded by the loss of Iain Henderson for Ulster, who is the closest thing to O’Brien and Healy in his ability to break tackles, and also Andrew Trimble, who, although a wing, is a strong carrier who has been used to punch holes in the middle of the pitch. Bosh!

The problem is magnified by the fact that Ulster and Munster’s two primary ball-carrying forwards are non-Ireland eligible. Nick Williams is Ulster’s go-to-man for the hard yards (which is quite another issue), while Munster have identified CJ Stander as their best carrier, and his form has been frankly awesome in recent weeks. Do Ireland have enough carriers to make the necessary metres to take the game to Australia, and more problematically, South Africa? Will the lack of Healy and O’Brien force Schmidt into certain selections in his pack? Or in the centres?

We’ve used the ESPN stats from the last two weeks to try and let the stats do the work.

Here’s the file: forwards_metres.  It’s the usual ESPN table format.  The focus here is on columns E to H and T to W, but that’s not to say the players didn’t do other stuff as well!  The guys in red are NIE.

Three things immediately stand out.

  1. Jamie Heaslip is the man. Over the two ERCC games, Heaslip has managed over 40 carries for an aggregate gain over 100m, the full length of a rugby pitch. Heaslip is in outstanding form and will be Ireland’s number eight for all three games. He’s not the most conventional number eight, or the most powerful, but his supreme footwork enables him to avoid the bigger hits and eke out metres where others would be running into a brick wall.  The issue that might arise is against South Africa whose sheer brawn is so suffocating he might not be able to find the space to get a run at soft shoulders.
  2. CJ Stander is the man. As if you need telling. Stander carried for an immense 110m against Sale, and again impressed with 42m with ball in hand against Sale, more than double anyone else in the pack. But he can’t play for Ireland.  Yet.
  3. Ulster have lacked a ball carrier. No Henderson, and Williams struggling; Ulster’s problem is that they have found themselves snaffled on the gainline. Roger Wilson showed up well off the bench against Leicester, but against Toulon no forward made more than 12m, which explains everything about why Ulster lost the game.

Ok, so that’s the obvious stuff, what about the auxiliary carriers, and what might it mean for Ireland

  1. If Heaslip is Leinster’s primary man, Sean Cronin is his lieutenant. Nobody can time a run onto the ball as well as this chap, which enables him to make clean breaks and beat defenders, and his technical deficiencies will continue to be accommodated by O’Connor as long as he can carry for an average of 30m a match. The question is: would Schmidt consider him ahead of Best in order to bolster his cabal of ball-carriers? Best’s lineout throwing has been poor for Ulster, and he has never been an effective carrier, but does bring power to the scrum and an exceptional ability around the ruck. Best would generally be seen as a nailed-on starter and a pack leader, and it would be a brave man to go into trench warfare against South Africa without him, but there may be a case for Cronin based on the current situation.
  2. Tommy O’Donnell is the new Chris Henry. We asked earlier in the season if O’Mahony, O’Donnell and Stander play together, who will hit the rucks? Answer: Tommy O’Donnell. Although a naturally strong carrier, O’Donnell has carried much less than his backrow partners in both games, and has appeared to do so closer to the ruck too. A recent journal.ie interview saw him chatting a lot about his role around the breakdown, slowing down ball, ‘living in the ruck’, and all that. It shows all the hallmarks of someone who has sacrificed his carrying game to do the dirty work; in effect, becoming more like Chris Henry. Which, ironically in this instance, will probably hurt his international ambitions.
  3. Peter O’Mahony offers good value with the ball. We know he likes to operate a bit further from the ruck where he can get his fend going, but O’Mahony’s carrying stats will encourage Schmidt. He made around 20m in each game, and like Sean Cronin was very much lieutenant to the primary ball-carrier. The only player who could realistically take the No.6 jersey from him is Rhys Ruddock, who has had a mixed bag, showing up well against Wasps, with a notable carrying performance, but anonymous in Castres. Throw in O’Mahony’s lineout game and abilty to win breakdown turnovers and he looks fairly nailed on for the jersey, but will probably be used to carry more than in the Six Nations.
  4. Jack McGrath for loosehead. He may not have Cian Healy’s quotient of fast-twitch muscle fibres, but McGrath is a useful carrier, as well as being generally decent in the set piece. He carried over 10m in each game. Both Munster looseheads have shown up better when introduced off the bench, and until one of them (probably Cronin) pulls away from the other, their jostling for position is probably letting McGrath pull the gap out when it comes to national selection.
  5. Paul O’Connell should leave the carrying to others – as has been suggested in certain quarters before,. While it seems churlish to be criticising the great O’Connell for anything, 5m gained over an aggregate 17 carries suggests that O’Connell should probably let O’Mahony, Stander or whichever loosehead is on the pitch have the ball instead. Toner hasn’t exactly been bursting through tackles either, so until Henderson presents himself again in the new year, Ireland can’t expect the second row unit to chip in with many metres. But it was ever thus – and quite often by our own design.

Based purely on individual merits, you’d write down the starting Irish pack as being McGrath, Best, Ross, O’Connell, Toner, O’Mahony, Henry and Heaslip. Schmidt will employ Heaslip as his primary ball-carrier, and ask O’Mahony and McGrath can help him out by chipping in with 20-ish metres each. Is that enough? If not, the case for Sean Cronin and Tommy O’Donnell becomes stronger, particularly for Cronin, though O’Donnell appears to have adapted his role somewhat.

And with a lack of heft in the pack, we need to ask if our preference for midgety centres can be continued – Dorce is decent at making metres after the tackle with his feet, but he isn’t exactly built like Mathieu Boshtereaud. Having someone bigger, like Robbie Henshaw, outside might take some workload off the forward carriers – Jared Payne certainly isn’t going to use opposition players as speed bumps. Any dreams of a second-five-eighth type inside-centre, such as Olding or Madigan, may have to be shelved for the moment.  All this, of course, is compounded by the loss of Trimble – with most of the putative replacements of the dancing-feet variety, we might need to press the square peg of Tommy Bowe into the round hole that is boshing up the middle.

One thing’s for sure: Jamie Heaslip’s going to have have a heavy workload over the next month.

by whiffofcordite on October 29, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Ireland, November Series

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 29, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/10/29/who-is-going-to-carry-the-ball/

Ulster Struggles

So there ya go – the dream is over. With Ulster’s development in recent years, Ireland have had three names supping at the top table of European rugby – we felt that the provinces were in a good position to replicate last season (and 2012)’s success and have three in the last eight. But, for the first time since 2010, Ulster won’t be there. We haven’t bothered crunching the stats – we’ll leave that to real numbers gurus like Andy McGeady – but we suspect there haven’t been many teams who have made the knockouts after losing their opening two games. After nicking a late bonus point in Welford Road, Ulster couldn’t even repeat that trick at home to Toulon and are now marooned with a single point. Bummer.

Now, losing to Toulon is far from disgraceful – they are European and French champions and produced the first powerhouse performance of the tournament on Saturday, whacking and bagging Ulster by half-time. Losing to this Leicester vintage isn’t so great though, and four wins with a couple of bonus points from here looks an extremely tall order, especially since one of those games is in Toulon.

In a sense, there have been some chickens coming home to roost for Ulster – organisational upheavel this summer, a lack of depth in the pack being exposed by injuries, and curious selection.

When Humph announced he was leaving for Glaws, Ulster rugger went into a state of shock, and it has taken four months for the endgame to play out. First of all, Cowboy was given the heave-ho with Les “Kissy” Kiss coming in on an interim job-share basis to bring his choke tackling expertise, hipster specs and sunny, thoughtful demeanour to Ravers – this was initally announced as a season-long measure. But then the announcement came that Kissy was going back to Carton House full-time and Ulster would shortly name a full-time coach. To no-ones surprise, a few weeks later, that was Neil Doak – with Kissy returning after RWC15 as Nucifor-stamped DoR. All of which ends well for Ulster, but it does mean that the Ulster players have had three head coaches for the 2014/15 season in 3 months – hardly the best preparation for European rugby.

And, although Doak has been around Ravers since, like, forever and has presumably – like the perennial bridesmaid – been preparing to be head coach for half that time, he only got the keys three weeks ago. Now, there can be no doubt he had input into team selection and tactics, so he wasn’t completely green, but having your second and third games as head coach against Leicester and Toulon is far from ideal. From Ulster’s perspective, the succession hasn’t been smooth – the best-managed corporates have a succession plan for everybody that they can put in place when required – Ulster might have got the outcome they wanted, but it took them a while to get there, and preparation undoubedly suffered. Perhaps there was a reason Doak couldn’t have taken over when Cowboy was slung out, with Kiss being lined up as 2015 DoR in time, but we can’t think of a persuasive one. Either way, Ulster have been in a state of organisational flux since June.

Secondly, the team was decimated by injury – or was it? The reality is that they are missing both starting locks  – Dan Tuohy, NWJMB – Ruan Pienaar and Andy Trimble. Pienaar and Trimble are virtually irreplacable but its the pack which has been hardest hit. Note: Alan O’Connor is also suspended, but if you are depending on an Academy player with two starts to rescue you against Toulon, you are in trouble. The reality of the situation is that Ulster’s depth in the pack was a concern 12 month ago and its got markedly worse since:

  • OUT: Tom Court (Prop, 32 caps for Ireland), John Afoa (Prop, 36 caps for BNZ, RWC11 winner), Johann Muller (Lock, 24 caps for SA, RWC07 winner), Fez (Flanker, 35 caps for Ireland, 2009 Lion) plus Niall Annett (Hooker), Adam Macklin (Prop), Paddy McAlister (Prop), Sean Doyle (Flanker)
  • IN: Wiehann Herbst (Prop), Ruadhri Murphy (Prop), Dave Ryan (Prop), Franco van der Merwe (Lock, 1 cap for SA), Charlie Butterworth (Flanker), Sean Reidy (Flanker)

Essentially, Ulster have lost their captain, 2 RWC winners, Ireland’s only player of the professional era aside from POC and BOD to be challenging for a World XV and 127 international caps and replaced them with a couple of wild card props and a once-capped Springbok journeyman. Poor planning, and ordinary recruitment. That’s going to hurt when you come up against a side who can lose Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe after five minutes and replace him with a MOTM contender from last year’s final. Ulster were so stretched, they had to rely on Clive Ross and Nick Williams as crack game-changers from the bench.

That’s a big enough handicap as is, but to find yourself struggling to identify your starting centres is pretty careless. Jared Payne has been the chosen one at outside centre for Ulster (and maybe for Ireland) but it’s fair to say he hasn’t got going there – when Ulster have brought Dazzler Cave into the team and moved Payne back to full-back, they’ve looked immeasurably more dangerous. Against the Tigers, Ulster went for brawn inside in the shape of Stuart McCloskey, but began to create opportunities only when he was replaced with the rapier that is Stu Olding. The against Toulon, it was Olding who started, but even before he got kicked in the head in a scene reminiscent of the Thing That Never Happened, he was being run ragged by Maxime Mermoz (aside: is this a first for anyone else to see Mermoz actually playing well? He has always seemed disappointing any time we have seen him) and Mathieu Boshtereaud.

Which isn’t to say Toulon steamrollered over Ulster – it was the technical brilliance of their pack and centres that won them this game – subtlety was the name of the game in the key moments. That awful feeling of being outclassed came a week after a litany of errors handed a free win to a Leicester Tigers team that subsequently gave the Scarlets (the Scarlets!) an easy win. Ulster have hid it pretty well in the Pro12 to date, but a pair of limp defeats in the rarefied air of the HEC/ERCC has shown them up for being a bit of a mess right now. If Doak didn’t know he had a big job on his hands, he does now.

by whiffofcordite on October 28, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ireland, Les Kiss, Nail Doak, Toulon, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 28, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/10/28/ulster-struggles/

Brucie Bonus

When you are scrapping for your life ™ in a Pool of Death ™ every point, nay try, can be crucial ©. Yes, amazingly, this particular piece of trite hyperbole is true and undeniable. Both Munster and Ulster are in prickly pools, and the bonus point distribution is very likely to be a key factor in who tops the pool, and whether the runners-up can join them in the next phase.

In both cases, the baseline scenario for the three contenders (Munster, Saracens and Clermont; Ulster, Toulon and Leicester) is:

  • Nine points from the group bunnies (Sale and the Scarlets)
  • Eight points from two home wins against the two good teams
  • Two points from two away defeats against same

coming to a total baseline of 19 points. Axel and Doak will be thinking that if they get 20, they should qualify, but if they end up with 18, they could finish third in the pool. And, of course, if you lose to the bunnies away or any of your home games, you are goosed.  Denying others points is just as important; if Munster can beat Saracens by more than seven points and deny them a bonus, it’s almost as good as an extra match point.

Munster, by the skin of their teeth, are still alive in the tournament – had they not managed their terrific comeback, they could forget about qualification. But manage they did, and the four points effectively means they are par for the course after one round. In their pool, Globo Gym picked up a home win, and, possibly crucially, scored four tries and got a fifth point. That, in effect, puts them a point ahead of the benchmark, edging them ahead of Clermont and Munster in the reckoning. Clermont will be content enough with their losing bp, particularly as they put it up to a team which had embarrassed them and fed them a forty-burger six months ago, and are also level par. The aggregate number of points dished out in the match was six, which is the result Munster would have least enjoyed.  Contrast with Leinster’s pool where Harlequins and Castres received only four points between them.  Slight advantage Saracens after round one.

The other slightly unfortunate news for Munster is that in beating Sale away from home in round one they may simply have softened them up for everyone else.  It’s a scenario Ulster ran into last year.  Beating Montpellier away looked like a pool-defining result, but it only resulted in Montpellier being less than fully commited and allowed Leicester to follow suit a few weeks later.

In Ulster’s pool, it looked like curtains for the Northerners at half-time in Welford Road – the Tigers had three tries on the board (almost a fourth) and a losing bp seemed a long way adrift. Finishing the game on a match score of 4-1 when 5-0 looked odds-on was quite the achievement – 5-0 would have put Leicester two points up on Ulster in the bonus-off, but now both are on par. Both teams will be feeling a bit bummed after the game – Ulster for losing and Leicester for eschewing a chance to get the boot firmly on a group rival’s throat.

In the same pool, Toulon beat the Scarlets but did not get four tries – this was a slight negative for the champions as they would have been expecting a full haul. They are still more than capable of going to the non-fortress that is Parc y Scarlets and running amok, but it ups the pressure a little. Toulon are just off schedule a little, but plenty of time to rectify that.

Next up it’s must-win home games against last years finalists – Munster open round two up against the likeable ruffians of Saracens and Ulster face the uphill struggle that is Toulon at home. Four points each, and they’ll both stay on course for the target of 19.  Deny the opposition a bonus point and it’s better still.  Easier said than done, though.

by whiffofcordite on October 23, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 23, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/10/23/brucie-bonus/

Naturalised Kiwis? I’ll Take Two

Joe Schmidt pulled a surprise yesterday by announcing his panel for the November internationals a week early. We don’t know what the logic behind the premature announcement is; perhaps he just likes to keep us on our toes, the scallywag.

As invariably happens with these things, the squad is pretty large so talking points are kept to a minimum. The real sniping only really gets going when the team is announced for the first test, so keep your powder dry folks! Nonetheless, with five new caps, 15 injuries and one or two notable omissions there was a bit of information to be gleaned.

Jared Payne has long been earmarked for a role as a naturalised Irishman and his moment has finally arrived. Will he be auditioned for 13, where he still doesn’t appear entirely comfortable, or seen as back-up for Rob Kearney? A test debut seems probable in any case.

Connacht’s Darragh Leader is the beneficiary of both Connacht’s good start to the season and a scattering of injuries in the back three. He’ll be competing with Bowe, Zebo and Gilroy for selection on the wing and at the very least will get valuable exposure.

Dominic Ryan is rewarded for a strong start to the campaign after his career looked to have stalled. He was among Leinster’s better players against Wasps and in the absence of Sean O’Brien and Jordi Murphy, he adds welcome depth.

Munster’s Dave Foley looks a good pick having looked solid throughout Munster’s up-and-down start to the season. It wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see him named on the bench, because Mike McCarthy has looked a bit leaden for Leinster.

Of the five newbies, the biggest impact could be made by another naturalised Kiwi, Nathan White, Connacht’s rock-solid tighthead. With Marty Moore injured, there’s every chance he will leapfrog Stephen Archer and maybe even Rodney Ah You, who somehow remains in the panel, to perform the sizeable role of seeing out the match after Mike Ross collapses from exhaustion.

Elsewhere, the main talking point was Paddy Jackson’s omission. Schmidt has left out the Ulsterman in favour of Ians Madigan and Keatley. It’s a form call and one imagines if it was tight in the first place, this weekend’s events may have been the decisive pendulum-swing. While Keatley was being lauded for his drop goal heroics, Jackson rather summed up Ulster’s night in Leicester with a lackadaisical conversion which was charged down. It’s a very definite boot up the arse for Jackson, who will be well aware that in a World Cup year, one of he, Keatley and Madigan will find themselves squeezed out of the touring party. Get your game face on fella, starting this weekend against Toulon.

One player a shade unlucky to miss out is Duncan Casey. His lineout stats are unmatched in Europe this year, and neither Cronin nor Best are exactly technicians, so he would have dovetailed nicely. Richardt Strauss hasn’t done anything of note this season, but clearly Schmidt is a fan. Also missing out is Darren Cave, whose ship appears to now have sailed. Squeezed onto the bench at Ulster having failed to take his chance with Ireland this summer, it looks like other options will be explored.

There was better news for Tommy O’Donnell who is recalled. The Tipp man hasn’t quite hit the barnstorming heights of his early 2013 form, but he is at least out of the doldrums of last season. Another player who has been on the same up-down-up trajectory is Craig Gilroy, who looks back to something like the razor-sharp runner who stunned Argentina in one of the most memorable test debuts in living memory. Both play in positions with notable absentees and have a chance to stake a claim.  Now gentlemen, no more injuries, please.  Pretty please.  With sugar on top.

by whiffofcordite on October 22, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Ian Keatley, Ireland, Joe Schmidt, Paddy Jackson

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 22, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/10/22/naturalised-kiwis-ill-take-two/

The Unstoppable Rise of Darragh Fanning

Darragh Fanning has started every game for Leinster this season, and on Saturday night his Leinster career hit new heights, as he scored two tries in his first European Cup match. He’s living the dream. Initially signed to plug a gap while players were injured and unavailable, with a glut of players still injured, he’s becoming a fixture in the team. Expect to see plenty more of him this season.

Fanning, or ‘Fanj’ as he’s known, is 28 years old and so qualifies as a late bloomer. A productive winger for St Mary’s at AIL level, he spent a season at Connacht before returning to the club game, then Leinster came calling. If you had told Leinster fans that he would be starting a European match a year ago, they probably would have laughed. But here he is, and with two tries to his name. It’s as many as Irish international wing Dave Kearney managed in the whole of last season.

There’s a tendency on the terraces and in internet fora to be a bit sniffy about players who arrive at the top level via this path – and before we’re accused of pointing fingers, we’re happy to admit some culpability ourselves. We talked recently about the hipster’s choice players; guys like Fanj are really the anti-hipster’s choice. They scream ‘journeyman’, and nobody ever gets excited about that.  How skilful can they be if they were languishing in the AIL for most of their mid-20s? The accepted way for players to get to the pro ranks in Ireland is via the academy structures. When a player arrives in the first team, freshly minted by the academy, hipster ‘do’ rendered just-so, there is an innate desire to proclaim him the next big thing. When someone is brought in to ‘do a job’ from the AIL it’s a case of ‘meh’.

Demented Mole has written about the topic, and noted that the sole route to professionalism via the academy has its flaws in that it favours those who are physically developed at a young age, and others who have potential but may not have the same physical development by the time they’re 18 can slip through the net. Brendan Macken has always had the look of someone who became a campus hero because he could steamroll other schoolkids, but never developed the skills to thrive against better, stronger players.

It’s very different in France, and to an extent in England, where there is a second-tier professional league which is an ideal breeding ground for youngsters, and the smaller clubs often act as feeders to the Top 14 sides. It means more players who may be unheralded in their youth at least find a home in the second division or at one of the smaller Top 14 sides, rather than slipping out of the professional game; and if they do manage to bloom later in their careers, they can find themselves elevated to the top level. Morgan Parra started life at Bourgoin; Vincent Clerc had four years at Grenoble. There are umpteen Irish plugging away in both ProD2 and the English Championship, while scrum half Jambo Hart has found himself elevated to the Top 14 and is dining out on great reviews with high-flying Grenoble.

Other players to make the upgrade from AIL to pro in recent(-ish) years are Craig Ronaldson at Connacht and the pick of the bunch, James Coughlan who proved a stalwart for Munster after his belated elevation, and currently finds himself earning a last-of-the-summer-wine payday with Pau in the ProD2.  Coughlan proved so effective that some excitable fans thought he should displace Jamie Heaslip from the Irish team. Whether Fanning can become such a cause celebre for Leinster remains to be seen, but for the moment his progress continues. The thought of him going up against Christian Wade was mildly terrifying, but there’s more to rugby than screeching pace. Wade scored a brilliant try, but Fanning scored two and Leinster won the match. He will never be able to do some of the things Wade does but there are plenty of things Wade isn’t great at that Fanning is pretty good at, like clearing rucks etc. *genuflects in front of framed Joe Schmidt picture*.  That’s rugby for you, it takes all sorts.

 

by whiffofcordite on October 21, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in AIL Journeymen, Darragh Fanning, Leinster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 21, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/10/21/the-unstoppable-rise-of-darragh-fanning/

Anglo-Irish Rivalry

Since 2007, when Leicester lost to Wasps in an all-English Heineken Cup final, the Irish have lorded it over the arrogant English © Gervais de Thornleille – four tournament victories to none, five finalists to three and ten semi-finalists to six … all from approximately half the tournament representation. The perceived advantage in qualification enjoyed by the three major Irish provinces was one of the drivers of the ERCC setup (even though it’s bollocks – under any qualification rules, the three would have cruised through in most seasons).

This weekend, all three provinces played English opponents – and they struggled mightily. The combined half-time score was 62-21 to the Premiership – an average of 21-7, although it should be noted that it was a very blustery weekend and in each case the English teams had the wind at their backs in the first half. In the second halves, all three Irish teams came out and fought for their lives in the tournament and began to show something like the quality we all think they have – Leinster and Munster eked out wins over Wasps and Sale, and Ulster got close enough to earn a bonus point and leave Leicester somewhat worried and mildly panicky. Combined, the score was 71-70 to les Anglais. Two of the three games were played in England, but still, this wasn’t by any means the cream of this year’s Boshiership season – the English teams stand 5th, 8th and 10th. Or in other words, the same berths occupied by Connacht, Embra and Cardiff in the Pro12 – none of whom are gracing this years HEC.

This was hardly an outstanding weekend from the provinces, and it really felt like muscle memory keeping them in it at times – BT Sport might be over-anxious to sell this as a brand-new tournament, but the provinces’ collective history and experience certainly told at times when there was a prospect of wipeout.

A quick word on each.  Munster were able to use the wind to good effect in the second half and Sale just couldn’t get out of their own half.  Any platform they did get, they found Peter O’Mahony and Dave Foley all over their lineout ball.  And in CJ Stander they have found a wrecking ball.  This was a performance for the ages, he just could not be contained.  At times he looked to be going into contact too upright, but is just so strong he could keep going.  Remarkable!  They still have a problem at centre though.  Hurley’s up-and-down season hit a trough here, and JJ Hanrahan’s nicely angled kick to the corner late in the match showed his contrasting style in a good light.  Also, Simon Zebo seems a little out of sorts?

Three yers ago, Ulster lost in Welford Road and showed no cutting edge whatsoever, and got beaten.  Those days are certainly gone, and Ulster now boast a backline capable of the sort of try that Tommy Bowe dotted down on Saturday night.  With such potency behind the pack, they’ll be annoyed they gave Leicester a three try start in the match.  Coupled with Jackson’s conversion blooper, it felt like an Ulster performance that only got to 90% intensity; never enough to win in a ground like Welford Road.  Still, they’re alive in the pool, but must beat Toulon this weekend.

As for Leinster, they were the only one of the three at home, but this was another bounty of handling errors and tear-your-hair-out stuff from them.  It’s becoming the default.  Injuries are a mitigating factor and once the team was announced sans Messrs. Kearney and Ross, this had the potential to be a banana skin.  Again, they dug themselves out of a corner, and used the wind to decent effect in the second half.  Amid the injury crisis, Dom Ryan and Darragh ‘Fanj’ Fanning have stepped up admirably this season, and continued that streak here.

There is no doubt the delight we take in beating English teams, and we find it hard to really rate them – perhaps they are better than we think… and perhaps we aren’t as good as we think we are.  Next week, things get dialled up a notch as Munster face Saracens.  The last installment of this rivalry was a damp squib, but a repeat is unlikely.  We’ll have a fair idea of where everyone stands afterwards.

by whiffofcordite on October 20, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 20, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/10/20/anglo-irish-rivalry/

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