What Fresh Madness Is This?

Joe Schmidt has named his team to face South Africa.

There has been some talk of Australia being the main focus this month and the team bears this out to some extent. With most of the positions picking themselves with injury to key players removing any would-be hard calls, the only position where there is a real decision to make is the midfield. And it’s there that Schmidt has taken a somewhat experimental route, with the rumoured Henshaw-Payne axis coming to pass.  No, folks, it wasn’t a ruse to wind up the Indo, hilarious as that would have been.

It sure is an odd one, because Gordon D’arcy is fit and ready to go and the obvious selection was the experienced Wexford man alongside one or other of Payne and Henshaw. Another more plausible possibility would be to bring in Olding or Madigan at 12, if D’arcy is indeed less than 100% fit, since both have been playing there, and playing well too, this season. There’s probably a specific gameplan wedded to the selection, and we’ll just have to wait and see what that is. Word on the ground is they trained well together while Dorce was recovering.  Henshaw’s a big strong lad, but probably not used to defending the traffic-heavy 12 channel. And Payne still looks a better full-back than a centre, though his footballing class is not in doubt. Our major concern is that both of them are playing in positions which are not their best.  On their first test starts.  Against South Africa.

The selection of Felix Jones on the bench is odd, even allowing for specialist 15 cover for Bob’s recently-crocked status. Simon Zebo has started a test there, and Payne and Henshaw have spent plenty of time there as well. Wing cover (Craig Gilroy) or even an extra playmaker (Stuart Olding) might have given the bench more game-breaking pizzazz, on the off-chance we are still in it after 60 minutes.

Criticising Schmidt’s selections before matches has tended to be a losing trade, and we have come out the wrong side of it ourselves too many times, and really should know better. To give two examples, against Clermont Auvergne we questioned the wisdom of picking Jennings and Boss, and in last year’s Six Nations we disagreed with the decision to retain the same first team for the Italy game, when the opportunity to freshen things up and rest some bodies for the French match looked appealing. On both occasions, Schmidt’s selections were vindicated. We also harrumphed a bit over Simon Zebo’s omission from the Six Nations, but nobody could argue with the outcome, and Simon Zebo’s attitude since has shown all the hallmarks of someone who is hungry to learn and improve.  So let’s hope that after the game we’re declaring this new midfield as a masterstroke.

Winning this match looks beyond Ireland, and to be fair, that applies no matter how the midfield is set up. The injury list is simply more than our squad can take. As well as 17 unavailable players, it’s hard to see just how sharp Rob Kearney, Mike Ross and Chris Henry can be. Ross, in particular, can hardly be expected to last the full match, which means Rodney Ah Here will have to play at some stage, possibly for as many as 20 minutes. It doesn’t bear thinking about.

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68 Comments

  1. curates_egg

     /  November 6, 2014

    Indeed. It is also disingenuous of Schmidt to say: “At the start of last week it was what was available to us.” – it is simply not true given Madigan was in the squad. Throwing the dice with the midfield and then including a specialist fullback on the bench is folly in the extreme.

    Let’s hope we’re all proven wrong.

    • You could infer that Schmidt doesnt have any confidence in Keatley as backup 10 based on that quote. He couldnt afford to take the risk of Madigan not being the backup 10…

      • I’m not sure about this. Madigan could be picked at 12 and still be the backup for Sexton at 10. I think it’s more that Schmidt doesn’t really see Madigan as being a 12.

        • curates_egg

           /  November 6, 2014

          He should tell MOC, who is on the record as saying he doesn’t seem him as a 10.

          • Hairy Naomh Mhuire

             /  November 6, 2014

            It seems like a pretty awful situation for Madigan. Club coach doesn’t see him as a 10. National coach doesn’t see him as a 12. They need to sort their shit out between them.

          • Leinsterlion

             /  November 6, 2014

            @HNM, sacking MOC would solve that.

        • Hmm, given Sexton’s injury concerns is it not more important to have a fresh no. 10 on the bench in case he gets crocked or fatigue sets in earlier than normal, than take the risk with your next best 10 starting at 12 and getting the sh1t pummelled out of him in the 12 channel for 2/3rds of the game?

          • curates_egg

             /  November 6, 2014

            I get that. But why not put D’Arcy on the bench as a get-out-of-jail if he is fit? There is plenty of cover at fullback without Jones.

          • Agreed and D’arcy can cover both centres too…

          • SportingBench

             /  November 6, 2014

            And presuably Sexton is coming off at some point in this game (assumption that we are seriously targeting Australia this Autumn) so Madigan will be required to play 10 in this game

        • Lop12

           /  November 6, 2014

          Problem with starting Madigan at 12 is that if he (a) gets injured (b) has a stinker of a start and needs to be replaced; then you have no backup to JS without carrying another 10 on the bench. Do you use that slot for IK? not sure thats great bench option.

          Suffers for his versatility here IMO.

          • curates_egg

             /  November 6, 2014

            If Darce is fit, he should be on the bench. There is no need for a specialist full back on the bench.

          • Amiga500

             /  November 7, 2014

            Well, in the current team, you’ve regular 3 full backs*, 1 who has played test matches at full back before** – and done all right – and 2 more on the bench***.

            *Kearney, Henshaw, Payne
            **Zebo
            ***Madigan, Jones

            I think we could have afforded to go without Felix Jones on the bench, but Joe knows more than me.

      • SportingBench

         /  November 6, 2014

        Keatley’s place kicking just isn’t up to the standard required at the moment to make him a realistic option to play for Ireland unless there is another nominated placekicker on the field. Can’t leave points begging. Once he works on it and can kick the points more regularly then he will be an option.

    • ArtVandelay

       /  November 6, 2014

      As fans we’re always going to be on the outside looking in, so to pronounce this as folly in the extreme, is pretty overblown. Schmidt knows the players available to him, knows the opposition, and knows the inherent risks in selecting a specialist 15 as a sub. But he also is one of the most cerebral coaches around and this selection is the best XV in his mind to get a result. It’s certainly not folly.

      • curates_egg

         /  November 6, 2014

        Well, from the outside looking in, it certainly is folly. He is taking a punt on not one but two of his two centres. In that scenario (from the outside looking in), you surely need a get-out-of-jail on the bench? We don’t have that. We have Felix Jones. Who can play fullback.

        If the experiment goes wrong (and I will try and keep an open mind) what do you do to change it? Switch the two rookies? Bring Madigan on? Move Bowe to 13? They are all fraught with risk. If D’Arcy is now fit, why is he not on the bench at least? With Henshaw, Madigan and Zebo, there is adequate cover for fullback already.

        It’s not that the Bok midfield is that terrifying but they will surely target that channel with strike runners.

        • ArtVandelay

           /  November 6, 2014

          But my point is that Joe is never going to be taking a punt. He is making a selection that he seems to be the best for the team, the game, and the future. Maybe Darse is carrying a knock. With Joe, there’s always a method to the madness so we need to have faith that there is a method to what we perceive as madness.

        • abitofshoepie

           /  November 6, 2014

          You are maybe missing the point. You can’t run through the boks, it will be intended to be a kick, chase and tackle game. A back up full back is exactly what you want.

      • Scrumdog

         /  November 6, 2014

        Didn’t Schmidt say that the match day squad is selected based on their form at camp leading up to the test match? It’s great to have a bigger midfield to send out as that’s the way the game is going but Henshaw and Payne have sold skills and good footwork. I don’t think there’s a starting back for Ireland who’s under six feet tall..in fact Cronin is the only player under six feet who’s a starter! This kind of selection at midfield is what sets J.S. apart and instills confidence in his players whose rugby attributes he details so well that when they tick the boxes he sets out for them he gives them the opportunity to shine and they are bursting with faith in their abilities. Schmidt is so avant-garde for an IRFU Coach and has broken the mold in Irish Rugby and its obvious he’s running the entire show! More power to him! Schmidt-Kiss is the best coaching duo we’ve ever had and we need to retain their services.

  2. Stephen

     /  November 6, 2014

    Jaysus bais, you posted that quick.

    • The boys are going up in the world: obviously they’re on the IRFU’s leak list!

      • Hairy Naomh Mhuire

         /  November 6, 2014

        Suspect it was typed & ready to go having read Thornley’s ‘ahem’ predictions this morning!

      • Gervais Thornley, called the Payne – Henshaw partnership on Off the Ball last night so they were only listening to their muse….

  3. In it till the 50 min mark, then SA coast away due to infinitely more impactful bench. I will be there cheering them on, but I dont hold out much optimism. Serious leap of faith being taken by the centre partnership. If we lose badly I shudder to think what Hooky is going to come out with…

  4. Rava

     /  November 6, 2014

    “Ah Now” lads

  5. I think Jones is on the bench as he doesn’t want to move the centers having picked them there if Bob goes down. He obviously prefers Jones at FB with Zeebs on the wing rather than Gilroy on wing and Zeebs at FB, I would say Jones is by far the best defender so I’m happy enough. Hopefully the wings will last but yeah its Ah You playing a big chunk of the second half is the big worry but there’s nothing Joe could do about it really….I wouldn’t be any happier if it was Archer. Foley should be ahead of McCarthy.

  6. Rava

     /  November 6, 2014

    I think people should declare their Province of choice. Just for the sake of clarity like…………….. 😉

  7. I was talking up Henshaw-Payne as a possible combo near the start of the season, on here I think, though have to say I didn’t think I’d see it come to pass.

    As it happens, I don’t think it will look great this weekend, but that this won’t necessarily tell us much about its potential. If tight head holds up, I expect a slow, died-with-their-boots-on agonising loss, by two or three scores. Bashed up on contact, we’ll tackle well but too often, and start slipping off or, at very least, losing too many collisions by too much. If it doesn’t hold up it could be a horror show.

  8. “Ah you are awful” but Joe likes you. Injuries have dictated most of the selections. As far as Ross is concerned, what Gatland said about Jones also applies to Ross. Some tight head props are not as valuable as they were under the old scrum laws and so they need to do more around the park top compensate.
    I would not like to go into next years World Cup close matches with Ross as our starting choice. He will never do much extra around the park.
    Also, I am not sorry that D’arcy has not been selected. His offers very little going forward
    these days and we need to try out a replacement.

    • That’s one way of looking at it. Another is that the opportunity cost of not having Ross is so great that he is absolutely vital to the team. If it wasn’t Ross, it would be Rodney Ah Here starting. Be careful what you wish for!

  9. SportingBench

     /  November 6, 2014

    Got to think that Schmidt is willing to lose this game and use it as a development game to test out the centre options. Also that he wants to give both Henshaw and Payne as long in the centres as possible. It is a strange selection but perhaps he sees Henshaw as a future 12?
    In any case Schmidt does have enough credit in the bank to do what he likes for a while.

    Also, while I am of the opinion you should pick a team to win each game at this level I do understand that you can’t be dogmatic about that and sometimes the sweetness of the jam tomorrow will make up for any bitterness today. After all, if we are celebrating a fantastic WC win next year and all the talk is of how cleverly Schmidt used his resources, we will all understand that sometimes you have to rule out wrong options to get to the right ones. Hell, we might all be commenting on how brilliant Joe was in preserving with Payne at 13 when even his own mother must believe he’s a better 15.

    • Xyz

       /  November 6, 2014

      This was pretty much my thought as well – potentially this is full throttle on the experimenting with centres mode, and getting some of the more outre combinations out of the way first.

      • Stephen

         /  November 7, 2014

        What English centre was it who Lancaster played out of position throughout the Six Nations? Eastmond?

  10. @edserburke

     /  November 6, 2014

    The only plausible explaination for this is that the half backs are going to kick the leather off the ball and our new centres are going to spend the day chasing bombs designed to land on Le Roux, who probably has little experience of the conditions that they’re going to face on Saturday. If Ireland are to make this a close game at all, Willie will have to have a shocker

    • Lop12

       /  November 6, 2014

      Forecast is actually fine for saturday as per RTE news last night, no rain from tonight until Monday, if you can trust that.

    • In side Halcyons Box

       /  November 6, 2014

      Ah Edser………………..you’re an optimistic man. Could they not pick another fullback instead of Bowe???

  11. Ro

     /  November 6, 2014

    Thats a seriously quick set of backs with pacey runners all over the place. It looke like Saint Joe wants a quick running game, away from the clutches of the Boks forwards. Who could blame him. Ross has’nt played for weeks and wont last too long and I doubt Roddders will put much fear into the Boks front row. Same goes for Kilcoyne, good around the park but dont rate his scrummaging. Wonder how many times Poite will penalise him if / when he gets on. If we can get the ball out wide quickly it could be a great contest as the Boks have some serious outside backs as well. Lookin forward to this one and hope it goes well with no injuries, we have enough of them thanks.

  12. Yossarian

     /  November 6, 2014

    Backline curve ball aside how are we going to fare at the breakdown against the Boks!?Best is a big loss in this regard(somewhat offset by McGrath being particularly good in this regard) Henry needs to recapture the form of last year,fast. We could find ourselves starved of possession at set piece and breakdown. I fear a slow grind akin to Toulon’s win over Ulster. Hoping the half backs dominate and we get to play with a high tempo. The lasting image of the nearly there game against NZ is Healy running over McCaw. Not sure we have anyone capable of running over any of the South Africans.

    • These are the issues which led us to writing the last paragraph. Ultimately the midfield curveball may not be very relevant. It’s hard to see how we can get on top in any of the three pillars of ball-winning; lineout, scum and breakdown. Which doesn’t leave much else.

      • There might be a lot of restarts to win 😀

      • D6W

         /  November 6, 2014

        Of the three, lineout looks like the only one where we can possibly outdo SA. But only if POC can outwit and outplay Matfield (big if), and Toner steps up and starts to use his height to disrupt and sometimes win opposition lineout, which he has never yet done.

  13. It says something about Ross’ importance that he’s now the only player to have started all of Schmidt’s Ireland games (he says after reading it in the Indo so not totally sure).

    As for the centres, Joe seems to have this way of bringing you around to his way of thinking. Madigan has been training at 10 for two weeks, Olding has been concussed for one and played FB last week (ignoring the fact he could probably seamlessly drop in at 12) and D’Arcy was semi-crocked and even if he was “fully fit” I’m not sure his side-steppingly-shuffling best would be enough to do anything for us in attack other than give the Boks time to flood the breakdown.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Joe has basically been watching the provinces and told Robbie Henshaw to do a McCloskey impression. It’s hardly subtle, but outside Sexton if we can hold onto the ball enough we *might* have a chance.

    As for Jones on the bench, I’d have preferred to just start him if there were doubts about Bob (which I still have, he’s only one match fitter than Ross) and have Zebo/Gilroy/Payne cover things.

  14. Its obvious lads , there is a great plan here , so think about it…….
    Breakdown may be a problem , and busting up through the middle might be a problem , so Joe thinks how do I avoid theses two as much as possible (and avoid alot of lineouts whilst kicking), and the answer is Garryowen Garryowen Garryowen , with the best outhalf in europe at the helm , and the best scrumhalf , then pick 5 fullbacks in your outside 5(and even more fullback cover on the bench) , and boom , youve got yourself a major strength in the game , especially considering Le Roux is about 5ft10 , its genuis , far less rucks and better way of gaining ground than boshing , Munster and Leinster also happen to be playing this way and being successful at it.

    • I like it Rol Dusty. Murray’s kicking game has been sensational for Munster this season – his ‘contestables’ have been lethally accurate and a frequent means of winning the ball high up the pitch for the men in red. Having three full backs in the team to contest – as well as Zebo and Bowe, good catchers both – sounds plauisble.

      • Just as long as neither Payne nor any of the others do a Sarries visit Ravers on it!!!!!

        • SportingBench

           /  November 6, 2014

          Also, will those big SAFer forwards like turnning around and running backwards for a contestable kick ever 30 seconds? Suddenly I have hope!

          Please don’t mention the Ravenhill game. It is up there with NZ last autumn in bringing a sad tear to my eye.

      • This is also my theory, and it has been since Schmidt selected, out of a contingent of 16 backs, 12 who have substantial professional experience at full-back. We have two extremely accurate kicking half-backs and a conveyor belt of backs with exceptional aerial ability (a phenomenon for which we probably owe the GAA a debt of gratitude). When was the last time Ireland played a winger who was actually flaky under the high ball, who could be targeted in the way that Cuthbert or Savea have been at different points in their career? Gilroy is probably the least effective of the back three players we’ve played over the last few years in the kick-chase, and he’s still very decent in the air, and is improving further due to exposure at 15.

        It goes without saying that this focus on contestable kicking isn’t exclusive, of course, and I’m sure if Schmidt had more time to mould the team we’d see more intricate back play a la Leinster under him, but given the constraints that there are on him as a national coach (limited time, limited opportunities for experimentation), I would assume he’s identified this as a comparative advantage for Ireland relative to other rugby nations. We saw how effectively Schmidt set up Ireland to play a kicking-heavy game during the 6 Nations, specifically against Wales; I suspect we’ll see much more of it.

    • Le Roux 1.85m, Hendricks 1.88m, Habana 1.80m, de Villiers 1.90m, Serfontein 1.88m (average 1.86m)

      Kearney 1.85m, Bowe 1.91m, Zebo 1.88m, Henshaw 1.92m, Payne 1.88m (average 1.89m)

      There you have it

      • I’m getting images of lots of the ba bas tap penalties from the weekend. Reminds me of a time when a local team had won a cup and they then went visiting the local schools. In came the team and the teacher asks: do you know what these boys did? One of the kids answers: they kicked the wee white ball away up high in the sky and they won the big trophy. They were a bit insulted as they thought they were playing intricate stuff! Not as good as the mole’s anecdote about Andre Joubert I’ll admit.

        Schmidt is a pragmatist up to a point, but surely his signature tune is that he is into developing his teams. I’m not sure if there would be much sustainable development if it is going to be the garryowen equivalent of the 15 man lineout! Then again perhaps that’s a bit sniffy. Kicking contestables, chasing, regathering are all as good a skill as the flashier stuff and need to be honed themselves. I’m not reading Schmidt well at all this week, so am beat as to how they are going to fashion things into a coherent international side though.

      • Irish backs are a bit more athletic too , Zebo will kill habana in the air , likewise Kearney on Le Roux , dont know much about Kendricks.

    • Cian

       /  November 6, 2014

      I have nothing beyond blind hope to back this up, but would it be a reasonable guess that Cornell Hendricks, as a 7s man, might have some gaps to his positional and fielding game that the brains trust have spotted? Certainly you wouldn’t say Le Roux, Habana and Hendricks are the most aerially dominant back three. I’m all of a sudden extremely excited about this match!

    • Leinsterlion

       /  November 6, 2014

      “great plan”

      • Am a big fan of “Apocalypse Now” meself, LL, and even saw the redux version in the cinema, but methinks you might be overdoin it a bit on the “extreme prejudice” front, considering JS might not even be targetting this match and is willing to throw the dice for the longer term gain e.g. holding Darce back for our meeting with Cheika’s Oz etc. etc….

        • Leinsterlion

           /  November 6, 2014

          My issue isnt with the selection, rather its the gameplan the entails from that selection that @Rol Dusty Yatasil has correctly deduced imo. You pick the players and gameplan you want to play long term, you dont pick an entire back division with the sole purpose of playing kickball. I dont see the issue with targeting the AUS game, I do have an issue with playing lowest common denominator rugby against the Boks, that will do nothing for us long term, we win/keep it tight playing ugly rugby, what is the long term value in that?
          We will have learned our players have basic skill and fitness levels and are discliplined. If we do the opposite and try new things, try to play skillful stuff, it will stand to us, this wont. We know Murray can kick the leather off the ball, in fact he loves doing it, how about challenging him and saying, lets see what you can do playing high tempo stuff, lets see you control it with your hands as opposed to your feet.

          • Riocard Ó Tiarnaigh

             /  November 6, 2014

            If the 23 picked manage to win ugly against the Boks on Saturday, that would be a massive learning experience for all involved and I would be absolutely cockahoop! To expect Ireland with all the injuries in its first match post-BOD to win a running game against SA, who have been playing together and increasingly gelling thru the Summer Internationals and the Rugby C’ship is unrealistic and madcap to boot, IMO.

          • I’m pretty much with you LL on the development front, but would such a gameplan really be lowest common denominator? Kicking to try and regain is a different kettle of fish to kicking away or to opposition lineouts. They may use it as a strategy early on to keep the defensive line speed down and then go more through the hands when given more room as a result. That’s similar to the 6N plan against wales referenced by thoughtless above. Very hard to know and I’m definitely reserving judgement until I see just what is being cooked up here.

            I do worry slightly that a plan could be based on previous success with shaggy (who Schmidt teams used as a magnet for cross field kicks restarts and garryowens to very good effect), because he really was exceptional aerially. Only Kearney (arguably) would rival him of the players on Saturday and he tends to make chest catches rather than the hands over head variety.

            It’s probably only one player different from the team most were expecting either. It’s maybe not that radical really, there wasn’t a whole heap of other things to do.

          • Leinsterlion

             /  November 6, 2014

            I’m wildly speculating as to how we will play at this point, the above can be taken as such. If its howling down I have no qualms about playing that type of game, if its not, I dont see the point for reasons outlined above.

            @Riocard Ó Tiarnaigh Fair enough viewpoint, but I’d regard this as a pre season friendly at this point, loads of injuries and building towards the WC and setting out your stall of how you want to play would be my priority. You can very easily get into Kidney mode of making every game important and playing risk averse stuff(smart rugby all the same), which we have largely been playing under Joe as it is, with only the increased numbers being selected a bonus.

            @paddyo no issues with selection barring reservations about the center partnership defensively(which you can do nothing about,as you say lack of options), and bench quibbles, but its good to see a genuinely left field selection, we may have to turn to the guts of this team in the WC, who knows?
            True enough clever kicking can be just that clever, but if you base your gameplan around it, you quickly run out of options, its good for keeping a game tight though.

          • I am thinking that while it is not for the purist this could be the gameplan long term:
            Kick and contest, choke tackle, kick and contest,choke tackle.

            If its good enough to get Argentina to finish 3rd in a world cup then it’ll be good enough for us,

            Bearing in mind that this tactic isnt a million miles away from the tactics used in every game in the six nations, with the maul as an addition (i still think it was strange that the driving maul from lineout was used constatly from the half way line to gain 20 metres but not really used from 5 metres out in the 6N)

            I’d prefer to win ugly than not at all, I dont think we will win on sat, but if this tactic goes well, against a team that love kicking and chasing themselves then it will give a good indication as to how far we can go by perfecting this tactic and getting out explosive running forwards back from injury,

            The futures bright, the future is effective.

          • montigol

             /  November 7, 2014

            Schmidt’s teams are regularly imbued with a high standard of handling and passing, so even if he’s adapting the team for a slightly more reductive game plan, he’ll want those abilities to still come to the fore when needed. Or at least, I would guess that’s the idea, if we accept the high-bomb premise.

    • Paddy o

       /  November 6, 2014

      Yeah the bench I don’t really understand. It must be that they are still worried about Kearney pulling up and don’t want to rejig everyone should that happen. I also think O’Donnell is unlucky, but I do understand that one-Ruddock and McCarthy are the more abrasive options should the pack need a leg up. O’Donnell and possibly foley will get chances in later games.

      The kicking thing, I do go on about this ad nauseum a bit, but it’s like they used to say earn the right to go wide. Now you’ve got to also earn the space to play, certainly at this level of hyper line speed defences. And you’ve got to be smart in how you do it. You are playing into their hands if you give them targets to smash. Even if you are running elaborate back moves, which we both want to see, you are still predictable if you overdo it and they know chances are it’s a run play.

      As an aside, at halftime in the ospreys connacht match ryan jones was on and he said something like “why are the all blacks the best team in the world? Because they kick the ball more than anyone else.” Now I think we’d both agree that the way he phrased his statement is ballox. It’s not what they do, it’s the way that they do it though. Every kick is purposeful, be it to get in behind the defensive line, keep them honest for a later run, or indeed just clear their lines in basic defence-mode. This I think is why Schmidt teams often train for what 35-40 mins? You don’t have to be intense for 80 mins but when you do then try to kill the circus and go for the jugular it’s gotta be super intense. I’d be surprised and disappointed if ireland used a gameplan which accepted inferiority. Thinking it over I don’t think Schmidt will take it that road. My main worry is getting enough ball to play a strategy. Lineout should be there or thereabouts but will be tough, restarts should be grand, Schmidt teams always have the breakdown box ticked so despite the quality of the opponents we mightn’t do too badly there either, the scrum is the worry with the big ? Hanging over Ross if he is truly ready. Don’t knock it on! Can we do more than them with probably less ball? It’s a big ask because defensively you are right, it’s a total unknown and minus himself, that was always gonna be the case.

  15. Ta me creideamh , cant wait to see endless bombardment , anyone here like online Managment games?heres the best http://www.blackoutrugby.com

  16. roldustyyatasil

     /  November 8, 2014

    Ta me fuckin delighted.

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