Two unfashionable outposts of European rugby lock horns for a place in the final that seemed unlikely at the start of the season. But they’re here now, so let’s get on with it.
History: The two sides crossed paths, and traded wins, in the 2009/10 season. A late try by – who else? – Tim Visser won the tie 17-13 for Embra at Murrayfield, while Cave and Isaac Boss crossed the whitewash in the return leg. Neither side advanced to the knockouts. In this season’s Pro12, Ulster have dished out two thrashings to Edinburgh, wrapping up four-try bonus points in both legs.
Form: Edinburgh are the two-headed hydra of European rugby this season. Abysmal in the Pro12, where they lie 11th and regularly roll over and allow their tummies to be tickled, they come to life in the Heineken Cup. Watchers of Connacht will recall Michael Bradley’s strategy of targeting particular games and dining out on fifty-burgers in others: well, he has taken that to the nth degree this season. WoC has always been dismissive of the argument that the English and French are stymied by being in more arduous leagues, partly because Munster and Leinster, the Pro12s traditional challengers in Europe, are competitive in the league and see it as a trophy worth winning. But Edinburgh’s attitude does bring into question whether a more merit based qualification system is in order. Their results since beating Toulouse are a 54-10 reverse at the RDS and a 38-13 beating by a pretty ordinary Cardiff Blues side, but little should be read into those scorelines; they weren’t trying a leg.
Ulster haven’t exactly killed themselves in the fortnight since beating Munster either. Their seconds got beaten by Connacht, with Ian Humpreys putting in a distracted, lazy performance, and lost at home to Leinster with something more like their first team, but minus heavy hitters Tuohy, Best and Ferris. But at least their losses were respectable. It’ll be a different team which takes the field on Saturday. Ulster’s strength in depth has come up just short in mounting a challenge in the Pro12, but they are a team transformed when Ferris and Best are in the side.
Gameplan: Edinburgh will want it loose, open and broken up. They look to keep the ball alive and offload wherever possible. Their two props offloaded more than any other forwards in the pool stages. They’ve good carriers in their pack, with No.8 Netani Talei ably abetted by Ross Ford (no longer flattering to deceive) and David Denton, fresh off an impactful Six Nations. Ross Rennie will look to rule the breakdown area. In the half-back division, Mike Blair is still something of a headscratcher, and it puzzles WoC to this day how he went from brilliant to awful seemingly overnight some time around 2009. The centres are average, but they’ve plenty of threat with Tim Visser out wide. Give him some grass to run into and his big long arms are capable of some of the best hand-offs in the game. Dude knows where the tryline is.
Ulster will want a more structured game, but they also play a brand of rugby that’s good to watch. As discussed in the week, they look to their classy 9-10-12 axis to spread the ball wide and quickly, and get their strike runners into space. A call has to be made at 10, where little iHumph is woefully out of form. Paddy Jackson is inexperienced, but showed flashes of his talent against Leinster. With Marshall probably missing, the option of moving Pienaar to 10 looks to be a non-starter. McLoughlin’s a conservative fellow, and it would be a remarkable call if he threw young Jackson in for his first Heineken start in the semi-final. Could it be a Johnny Sexton moment? Elsewhere, Andrew Trimble is good at coming off his wing and looking for work (by work, we mean opportunites to bosh). They’ve a tough, granite-hewn pack with Wannenbosh and Stephen Ferris expected to provide plenty of hard yards. Best and Tuohy will be required to chip in. Hard carries up the middle, spread it out wide. Simple, and if accurate, pretty effective.
Prediction: It’s hard to see past Ulster. It’s in Dublin, they’ve come here the hard way, and you can’t help but feel Embra got through a bit of a Group of Dearth. We’re not expecting it to be easy, though. For all the supposed experience of Ulster’s World Cup Winning South Africans, they didn’t show much composure down in Thomond Park – they really just gutsed it out. This time the onus will be on them to play a bit more rugby. They won’t have it all their own way, but they should be able to grind down an Edinburgh side that appears to lack the sort of grizzled leaders to win this game. Grizzled leaders like Rory Best and Johann Muller. Ulster by 7.
Whiff of Cordite 