How many is too many?

Ireland are in the unique position of welcoming back a number of world class players in one go after periods on the sideline of various length. It’s an unusual selection headache for the coaches as they ponder bringing some or all of their best players back into the team. The names themseleves – Jonny Sexton, Cian Healy, Jamie Heaslip and Sean O’Brien – would enhance any line up in world rugby (except Bath of course), but with the rustiness and shortage of match-fitness that comes with a lengthy injury layoff, the question is: how many such players can be absorbed in the team at any point?

Word on the ground is Ireland are set to start three of this fab four, with the fourth, Cian Healy, starting on the bench. It looks about right. Jamie Heaslip is back from a relatively short period off the pitch; indeed he has played through his injury in recent weeks and by all accounts could have done so against Italy if he really had to. Heaslip is the glue that binds together any Irish backrow these days; such is his versatility he performs the role that is lacking among the two flankers picked either side of them. Playing alongside O’Brien and O’Mahony, he will probably be asked for a day in the trenches, shoring up the breakdown and clearing rucks.

Jonny Sexton is in a strange situation, where has has been forced to sit out through a build-up of concussion incidents. He hasn’t been ‘injured’ as such, so his fitness probably isn’t in question but he will likely be lacking a bit of his match sharpness, but his presence alone on the pitch is a huge fillip. He’s a must-pick and management will look to keep him on for as long as possible. Madigan looks set to deputise, showing that while Schmidt preferred Keatley’s ‘steady-eddie’ approach from the start, he sees Madigan as his best impact replacement, whose less structured style can be of best use late in matches.

Healy and O’Brien are different cases, having been missing for much longer. The O’Brien situation is complicated somewhat by Heaslip’s injury; having one backrow operating at less than 100% is one thing, but selecting two is surely one too many? It is likely it wouldn’t happen if Schmidt did not feel he could rely on Heaslip to come through 80 minutes. Another possibility is that he can get away with it because his second row replacement, Henderson covers the backrow as well as second row. If he absolutely has to finish with a backrow of Hendo, O’Mahony and Murphy, then it’s not the end of the world.

Murphy you say? Well, yes – O’Donnell is a better like-for-like starter on the openside, but Murphy covers more positions from the bench. Tough gig, but then, this is, as ever, an uber-competitive line. Speaking of the bench, we still can’t say we are fully comfortable with Felix Jones being there – Jones is a specialist full-back, while the alternatives (Earls or Fitzgerald) cover virtually the entire 3/4 line plus full-back. Against Italy, Jared Payne getting injured necessitated moving Tommy Bowe to centre and playing Jones out of position. He’s clearly a player Schmidt fancies, and it’s tough to argue with the results, but it has the whiff of Deccie selecting Paddy Wallace to cover the entire backline.

No other changes are likely – and we still think selecting Mike Ross is short-sighted. Did he justify his selection against Italy? Absolutely. Do we think picking Marty Mooradze is a better bet? Completely, in both the short term (as Leinster have proved) and the long term (looking forward to RWC15 and beyond). France, in their only change, have promoted the huge Racing Metro loosehead Eddy Ben Arous – it’s injury enforced, but Ben Arous for 50 minutes plus Debaty for another 10 or so is going to ensure Ross will need to have an equally effective day at the office.

The real good news for Ireland is that Afrique du Sud’s Rory Kockott and Scott Spedding keep their places – we’d feel a lot less confident if it was Morgan Parra and Brice Dulin in the team, and the arm-flapping Bad Ben Youngs impersonations of Kockott and howitzer boot of Spedding should be easier to deal with for Ireland. The only team to really knock Joe Schmidt’s Ireland out of their comfort zone in 2014 were the ultra-ambitious Wobblies when they kept the game fast and loose  – the intelligent Parra and unstructured Dulin would be much more worrying.

Based on the teamsheets, you’d fancy Ireland, but <insert cliche about France here>.

by whiffofcordite on February 11, 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in Ireland, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 11, 2015

https://whiffofcordite.com/2015/02/11/how-many-is-too-many/

Kasparov, Deep Blue, 1996

Two Six Nations ago, in their second Six Nations under Jacques Brunel, Italy beat Ireland and France, admittedly both at home. The draw for RWC15 had already been made, and these three, with all due respect to Canada Eh and Romania, would be in a round-robin playoff for qualification. If results were repeated, Italy would have topped the pool, and Ireland would have been one bonus point behind France in the scrap for second. Brunel had worked on expanding Italy’s game after succeeding <insert name of Southern Hemisphere rent-a-coach here>, and it was paying dividends – Italy looked like they might be a genuine threat for the rest of the cycle.

Wind the clock forward two years, and Brunel’s experiment has ended – in November, Italy responded to a terrible run of results by picking a Kiwi journeyman at outhalf and sticking it up the jumper. This was never a gameplan that was likely to unstick Ireland under Joe ‘Deep Blue’ Schmidt – and so it proved. Ireland dusted down the well-worn script for beating the Italians when they were under <Southern Hemisphere rent-a-coach> – disrupt the lineout, slowly overpower them up front, and make hay when they began to tire in the last quarter. The Italians even threw in the traditional yellow card. Eddie and Deccie negotiated such obstacles with ease, and so did Joe Schmidt’s Ireland.

The game was a snoozefest, and Ireland’s seemingly fervent desire not to show any of their hand led to the likes of Jared Payne and Henshaw being used to bosh it up the middle. Like the November formula, keeping it narrow was the watchword. O’Connell admitted Ireland allowed themselves to ease into the game slowly.  One would expect we will need to show a bit more against France, who will lap that kind of stuff up. In the pack, Jamie Heaslip is virtually certain to return, we will need to await a prognosis on the unfortunate Sean O’Brien, and DJ Church is less likely to make it. O’Brien’s injury puts the selectors in a bit of a pickle, because the game being against Italy was the perfect opportunity to give him a bit of a hit out before the France match.  But without that hit-out, do they now throw him in from the start against the French?  Or will he even be avilable?  If O’Brien doesn’t make it, its a choice between Tommy O’Donnell, who did very well deputising at the last moment, Jordi Murphy, first reserve 12 months ago, or something creative (and unlikely) like shoe-horning Iain Henderson into blindside while moving Peter O’Mahony across. Henderson’s ballast and skill off the bench gave Ireland real momentum in Rome, and one wonders if it’s merely a matter of time before he makes the starting team.

Right now, though, O’Donnell looks the natural choice.  Full credit to him, but the ease with which Ireland can replace a player of the calibre of Sean O’Brien without batting an eyelid shows (again) how systems and processes drive modern rugby, and in particular this Ireland set-up. It’s tough to imagine, say, Deccie’s Grand Slam Ireland being able to seemlessly replace, say, Wally and Fez with Shane Jennings and Denis Leamy without a noticable decline in production.  They were almost the opposite; dependant on signature players for big plays at key times in the heat of battle.

In the absence of Jonny Sexton, Conor Murray controlled the game nicely – what a player he is – but Keatley had a bit of a curate’s egg on his Six Nations debut. He took his goals well, and kicked better as time went on, but there were a couple of ugly errors in the first half, and Sexton’s general-ship was missed. We’ll need the cranky one back to be at our best. Ian Madigan came off the bench for a tasty cameo against tiring legs, and is probably inked into the number 22 shirt for the tournament – Keatley did fine, and he’ll start if Sexton goes down again, but Madigan’s unstructured threat is better off the bench.

To continue the RWC15 theme, the Italians look so far off being a threat to Ireland that it isn’t funny. The French, of course, are another kettle of fish. Right now, all the elements seem to be there, but it just doesn’t seem to be coming together for them – they didn’t show much against Scotland that would have us tossing and turning .. or maybe Scotland are better under Vern Cotter than they have been. Like Ireland, presumably PSA doesn’t want to show his full hand, given the team is, y’know (with some exceptions), Gallic and, y’know, mercurial and, y’know, French, the whole Scotland episode probably gives few pointers as to how next week will go.

The tournament has started with wins which would have been fully expected, without learning much, but the real direction of the tournament for Ireland and France will be decided on Saturday.

by whiffofcordite on February 9, 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in Deccie Kidney, Ireland, Joe Schmidt, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 9, 2015

https://whiffofcordite.com/2015/02/09/kasparov-deep-blue-1996/

The Game Is On

The Wolfhounds snooze fest ultimately might have some major import when it comes to looking back on Ireland retaining their Six Nations crown, but probably not – nothing we learned was earth shattering. Sean O’Brien is fit again, NWJMB is just amazing, Ian Mad-dog isn’t totally reliable in a mucky boot fest, Sam Burgess is on a hiding to nothing (Dear Slammin’ Sam, take up the sport, and be international standard in three months. Hugs, Bruce & Stu) and Luke Fitzgerald will find a way to keep our nerves jangling.

But now that is (thankfully) in the rear view mirror, the real action begins – it’s just five days until we walk out in Rome, and the Milky Bar Kid has some selection quandaries. The odd dilemma, a few posers and some awkward questions. Last year, he decided on the team (15 and 23) that was going to win the Six Nations and largely stuck with it right the way through. This time around, it’s slightly different due to RWC15 being the ultimate target, but we can’t foresee a series with Schmidt road-testing players and combinations – he’ll do that in camp and stick to a squad that he thinks can execute his gameplan. Who will be the players tasked with this? We’ll start with the forwards and look at the backs separately – the backs have more obvious question marks, but with injuries and returnees the forwards aren’t completely cut and dried either.

Loosehead Prop: Last year, DJ Church was the starter with Jack McGrath the backup. Church, however, is injured and isn’t expected back before the England match in round 3, leaving McGrath as the starter and incumbent for the first 2 rounds. We can expect Healy to march straight back into the XV when he is fit – Schmidt might be one for competition for places, but only within the parameters of gameplan execution, and Healy is one of the cornerstones of the team and will start is fit. James Cronin of Munster, a most interesting player and much better than Dave Kilcoyne, in our untrained eyes, will provide backup early on.

Hooker: Like last year, Besty is the incumbent with Sean Cronin breathing down his neck and providing oomph and carrying from the bench. While Cronin has many virtues, the fact that he can’t throw or hook is kind of major at this level – Besty himself can get the yips, but any lineout weakness is more than compensated for by feral breakdown work (especially important in the absence of Chris Henry). The rather dodgy argument was put forward by Shaggy that, since neither hooker will play the full 80, and Cronin’s throwing is less bad when starting, is that he should be the starter. Not buying it – Besty to start, and it will stay that way until Cronin’s technicals improve.

Tighthead Prop: Now, this is most interesting. We presumed last week that Mike Ross, as Leinster’s third choice prop, simply could not start against Italy. But why would Schmidt pick Ross against the Saxons if he isn’t going to be in the 23? And if he is in the 23, why have him on the bench? Marty Moore seems ready, but we’ve an awful bad feeling Rosser will get the shirt – and it’s a major worry. Even if Ross does get picked, we can’t see him finishing the tournament as starter – our first 3 games are against the strongest 3 scrums, and there is a risk he gets mangled in one of them, forcing the change upon us. Italy are strong enough up front to have troubled Argentina and the Boks in the Autumn, and France and England can be monstrous and destructive on their day. It seems a waste of a pick not to let Moore get that experience, but we think Ross we start the tournament wearing 3, but finish out of the 23. We excorciated Deccie for staying loyal to certain players for too long, and if Schmidt picks Ross, it smells of Deccie-esque uber-loyalty. If it comes to pass, we better hope he has a damn good reason for it – because we don’t expect it to finish well.

Second Row: Here is a unit where Ireland are down to the bare bones. Thankfully, the bones consist of the best three players they have – captain and manic lunatic Paul O’Connell, Leinster’s best player this season Devin Retallick and hairy llama Iain Henderson. After that, it’s, er Mike McCarthy and Lewis Stevenson. Toner, as has been his habit, has improved on last year’s excellence, and is now a key leader for Leinster – he will start alongside the captain. Speaking of, O’Connell’s form is worryingly poor  – at the centre of the meek capitulation against Saracens, he looked his age and more. Still, you can’t expect anything less than 100% crazy aggression, and, back in the green, you suspect we’ll see the POC of the Autumn series – he is in a mental vortex culminating in RWC15 at which point he will retire from green, and that focus will be pushing him on. Then, when he tires, we can unleash the llama from the bench – it’s a lip smacking prospect, and this might be Ireland’s strongest unit, given Murray and Sexton have their own worries. Just pray for no injuries.

Backrow: Last year, Ireland’s backrow was the fulcrum of their success – Peter O’Mahony and Chris Henry led the tournament in turnovers, and Jamie Heaslip was as excellent as ever. This time around, Henry is still recovering from an awful heart injury, but we do just about have Sean O’Brien back in the reckoning. Rhys Ruddock was the player of the Argentinian tour and kicked on again in November, so it’s not guaranteed that SOB will walk straight back into the team, but, as one of Ireland’s best players, surely the Tank will play if fit? We might not get 80 minutes out of him, for the first couple of games at least, but 50 will do. The bench selection is another interesting one, because Heaslip looks to still be slightly affected by his recent shoulder injury. If there is any doubt at all over Heaslip, then it could have a knock-on effect on whether O’Brien is thrown in so early.  Still, Jamie has had a couple of weeks since his last fixture so presumably the warewolf blood has kicked in and he’ll be fine.  The smart money would appear to be on a backrow of O’Mahony, O’Brien and Heaslip, with Ruddock on the bench.

It’s a strong and experienced pack, littered with Lions, and has more carrying threat than in November. On the flip side, our second row stocks are low, SOB is just back from injury, and, of course, the major worry is if Mike Ross starts. Jack McGrath’s recent humdrum form at Leinster could do with being Schmidt-ed as well, but hopefully his three week ‘rest’ will have allowed him to recharge his batteries.

by whiffofcordite on February 3, 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in Ireland, Joe Schmidt, RWC15, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 3, 2015

https://whiffofcordite.com/2015/02/03/the-game-is-on/

(Hashtag) Ireland’s Tighthead Crisis

Ok, well, it mightn’t be a crisis, we don’t know that for sure. In fact, we reckon it won’t, but one fact remains indisputable – the man who has started the last 25 Tests for Ireland at tighthead prop is now third choice at his province. That’s not good.

Did you know that since the dawn of professional rugby, only four tightheads have started a Six Nations match for Ireland?  It’s going to become five this season.  Shit just got real.

Let’s rewind a little to the Autumn Internationals of 2010 – that was the point when John Hayes finally ran out of steam after being flogged, almost literally, to death. The indefatigable Bull had been Ireland’s starter for an incredible 11 years, and the progression management consisted of the following:

  1. Identify Mushy Buckley as Hayes’ successor in 2007
  2. Wring hands as Mushy fails to make a dent on Hayes’ starting slot at Munster
  3. Watch Mushy make an impressive top class starting debut in BNZ in the Tour of the Long List of Blindsides in 2010, albeit in a game with few scrums
  4. Cover eyes with hands during 2010 Autumn Internationals
  5. Wring hands further as Mushy repeatedly gets injured and *still* can’t get Hayes out of the Munster team even as Hayes get frogmarched backwards in green

When Buckley lasted 40 minutes in the Wolfhounds game four years ago, the management’s patience snapped and that was that – the previously ignored Mike Ross, of whom it was clear Deccie wasn’t a fan, was in, and acted as a one-man bailout machine, immediately solidifying the Ireland scrum, even sporadically turning it into an attacking weapon! Phew, problem solved.

Of the 44 Tests since then, Ireland have let themselves get into that situation again – we are at exactly the same point in the RWC cycle, and the starters in the interim period have been:

  • Mike Ross (41 Tests)
  • Mushy Buckley (2 Tests) – vs Scotland in RWC11 warm-up, and Russki in RWC11
  • Deccie Fitzpatrick (1 Test) – vs BNZ in the 2012 Tour

Ross started both games in the 2013 summer tour when the opponents were the scrummaging powerhouses of, er, the USA and Canada. He started against Samoa in the November series. He also started both tours in Argentina, who *are* scrummaging heavyweights with the next choice being Rodney Ah Here, so that’s understandable, at least. He started against Georgia – Georgia! – to prepare him for the scrummaging powerhouse of the Wobblies. To be fair to the management, they were undone by injuries in November.  Moore had been out since early on in the season, and they gave every indication that Nathan White would be given a prominent role, only for him to succumb to injury too.  Now, there are always reasons to start Ross, sometimes very good ones, but the risk is that, like with Hayes, we end up that the player just goes over a cliff.

When the Ross-anchored Leinster scrum got shunted around by Quins in December, it looked like he was over the cliff-edge. Happily, Marty Moore has returned in the nick of time and transformed the Leinster scrum, with help from Tadgh Furlong who has cemented his status as first reserve. It’s tough to see how Ross can start for Ireland. He is still in the extended squad, but if he is behind two Irish eligible players at provincial level, it seems a long shot that he is the test starter.  Furlong has been deemed not quite ready for test level yet, and is not in the extended training squad.

So who will start for Ireland? The answer, surely, is Marty Mooradze – Moore is a very strong scrummager and a more dynamic version of Ross around the park. was Ross’s backup at last years Six Nations, playing 110 minutes in total, and looked decent off the bench. But still, it’s a step up, and his last act in an Ireland shirt was to be ploughed backwards by Debaty, Guirardo and Slimani in the final scrum, only to be let off the hook by Dreamboat Walsh and a bit of good luck as the ball popped out of the French scrum and they had to play it.

And who will make the bench?  Either Ross or Nathan White. Could it be that Ireland put out two tightheads with no test starts between them and one of whom has yet to even get a cap?  Indeed, it’s very probable.  If we were to graph Ross’ career graph it would look something like this: unwanted, unwanted, unwanted, Ireland’s most important player, unwanted.

It’s likely that Moore will have a few wobbles against some experienced streetwise operator, probably a dirty Frenchman or filthy Italian, but he should be fine on the whole. And we will know who our starting RWC15 tighthead will be. And while Mike Ross was a stopgap solution that fell into Deccie’s lap, Moore should have a decade-long career and has been groomed for this very situation.  His time has arrived.  Still, it’s mildly concerning that the men most likely are barely capped, and we’ve got ourselves into a situation where an oft-flogged starter packs in eight months before the tournament … again.  Then again, Michael Bent is in the squad too, so there’s always that.

by whiffofcordite on January 28, 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in 6 Nations, Ireland, Marty Mooradze, Mike Ross

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 28, 2015

https://whiffofcordite.com/2015/01/28/hashtag-irelands-tighthead-crisis/

Tuesday Shorts

Ashley Johnson should have walked

Wasps v Leinster rather lived up to its billing; Egg thought Wasps would squeak it, Palla thought Leinster would edge out a win, so a draw seemed appropriate because y’know, on average we’re always right. The outcome would have surely been different, however, had Ashley Johnson been sent off in the first moments of the game. Make no mistake, he should have been. In last year’s quarter-final at Ravenhill, the very same referee gave himself no shortage of time to arrive at his decision to send off Jared Payne. The decision looked, on balance, just about correct, though to be fair to Payne he had been a little unlucky and appeared to slip. Johnson had no such excuse; this was reckless play of the highest order. Yet Garces appeared to make up his mind that it was a yellow card too quickly. Sure, he went to the TMO but he already had his hand on the yellow almost as soon as he blew the whistle. The outcome for the sinned against party shouldn’t be overly influential in these incidents, but the fact that Kearney had to leave the field injured, and now misses a decent chunk of the Six Nations, only served to highlight exactly why this sort of challenge has to be punished appropriately.  Johnson took time to apologise to Kearney on twitter, which was all very manly and sporting, but not very relevant in the grand scheme of things.

Round Six Jollies

The last round had a bit of everything, and was the best final round of pool matches in some time. Credit must go to several teams who had nothing meaningful to play for, but who upheld the tournament’s credibility, chief among them Ulster, who finally showed some of their quality, and Montpellier, who endured a tawdry campaign but refused to roll over against Toulouse. Things reached a fantastic crescendo on Sunday afternoon when, in the dying minutes of the Bath v Glasgow and Montpellier v Toulouse matches, any of three teams were within a score of going through or not. Not only that, but the fortunes of Leinster, Wasps and Saracens were hinging on events too. It was riveting. This viewer found himself channel-hopping from one to the other at every pause in play. It was certainly good enough to gloss over Craig Doyle calling Martin Bayfield ‘Bayfs’.

Pro12 Finale

The Pro12 has made a brave, almost certainly foolhardy gambit by announcing the final will take place in Ravenspan regardless of the finalists. The Top14 finale is in Paris, the Aviva final is in Twickers, so why can’t we join the party? Well, for a start getting to Belfast requires an overseas journey for fans of eight of the twelve teams in the competition. Presumably, the fact that the Champions’ Cup final is in early May is feeding into their thinking. It put enough distance between it and the Pro12 final to, hopefully, generate the kind of enthusiasm required to fill the ground. For all that, though, the organisers will be hoping at least one of De Oirish Provinces makes it. A Glasgow v Ospreys final could be a rather empty affair.

Half-back Concerns for Joe

Losing Jonny Sexton for the Italy game is one thing, but to be without Conor Murray would compound things further.  On top of that, throw in an injury to Eoin Reddan and we would be looking at a half-back partnership of Marmion and either Madigan ort Keatley.  The Irish camp are maintaining an omerta on the issue.  Maddog picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue and his placekicking, superb all season, went wonky at the worst possible moment in the heat of the Wasps match.  It’s all a bit concerning.  Marmion is a fine player, but a greenhorn at test level, while Madigan has played most of his rugby at 12 this season, albeit that he has done well.  Could we see the Wolfhounds game used to give them a chance to familiarise themselves with one another?  With O’Brien and Healy, and possibly Henderson also featuring, maybe Joe should use the match to give his full XV a dry run?

by whiffofcordite on January 27, 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 27, 2015

https://whiffofcordite.com/2015/01/27/tuesday-shorts/

Bully Boy Tactics

The launch of the new European Champions Cup brought with it a promise of more competitive groups. Fewer rubbish teams and more talent concentrated into five pools; it would be harder to qualify and more exciting. We were sceptical, but said we would return before the final round of matches and review. So here we are.

To be fair to the Champions Cup, it has more or less made good on its promise. Whether this is by accident or design is hard to parse, but for sure this is the most interesting round six for a good few years; there are plenty of games with a lot at stake and a less than certain outcome. The scrap for the last couple of runners-up places is going to be especially fraught, and could go down to the final minutes of the weekend, which looks set to provide drama by the bucketful.

Things get off to a pretty good start with Wasps vs. Leinster, which has the look of the game of the weekend. An up-and-coming team at home to an established one, with qualification at stake. James Haskell vs. Jamie Heaslip in a battle of the metro men. Forget awesome power and thudding collisions, feel the hipster sandwiches and post-match grooming discussions. It’s set to be a cracker.

Next, Northampton play Racing Metro, and while both should qualify, the winner tops the pool and wins a home quarter-final. Later that evening, Ulster play Leicester. The Nordies are out but they will put it up to Leicester, who need a five-pointer to have any chance at all of going through. The two have had some great ding-dongs in recent years, and this fixture offers a chance for Ulster to salvage something from what has been a miserable campaign.

Sunday afternoon brings us to Pool Four, where any one or two of Bath, Toulouse and Glasgow can go through. Bath vs. Glasgow sees two of the most enterprising teams in the tournament go up against one another. Slammin’ Sam can’t get into the Bath team, and anyone who saw Jonathan Joseph and Kyle Eastmond last week will know why. If Bath win, that takes them to 19 points, and probable qualification. Finally, Clermont take on Saracens. In spite of a decent campaign, Saracens are in a pickle and are odds against to qualify. They’ve already beaten Clermont, did the double over Sale, but may rue a lack of bonus points. They failed to get anything from Thomond Park and should have knocked Sale for four tries at least once, and butchered umpteen opportunities to get a fourth try against Munster last weekend. Even a losing bonus point in Clermont – a fine achievement if you can do it – might not be good enough. They’ll have the advantage of knowing exactly what they need to get and there’s every chance the outcome to be in the balance as the match clock ticks over into the red.

So, how has it all come to pass? None of the factors that were trumped up in the fractious birth of the new format have been relevant. Premiership sides’ supposed battle against the threat of relegation has been non-existent thanks to Bucaresti Welsh, while the usual suspects in the Pro 12 miraculously find themselves on course for qualification again next season without having to divest huge resources to the league campaign.

What has been notable is that the Pro12 teams have had a particularly rubbish campaign. The most likely scenario is that just one of their number, Leinster, will qualify, and that may not even come to pass. Ospreys and Glasgow have still to find a way of bringing their league form to bear against the more physical English and French sides, while the challenge of Ulster and Munster, serial qualifiers over the last few years, has been particularly hopeless this time around for various reasons.

Back in our original analysis, we implored the middle-ranking sides to step up to the mark and put it up to the established teams. The English sides have achieved this more than any other: all of Wasps, Harlequins and Bath have had a bearing on the tournament. Bath have been revelatory, and look set to qualify. Wasps also have a great chance, meaning two teams who lost their first two games might qualify – a first (and second) by our reckoning. Quins dropped the ball in round five, but remain in the hunt, just about. Even Sale, marooned on two points, have been somewhat unlucky in their three home games and could have won all of them. For all the talk of sugar-daddies and bully-boy tactics, many observers have noted that this year’s Aviva Premiership is faster paced and more watchable than previous vintages, with a greater emphasis on running and passing, and less on boshing and kicking. Less Oooooooooohhh! and more Aaaaaaaaaaaahhh! Bath, Northampton, Harlequins and Wasps are all playing with a degree of width and purpose in attack. Even Saracens have widened their game. It looks to be paying dividends on the European stage.

Worth noting as well that the qualification criteria have changed – points obviously first, then results & points difference in the pool, then it’s points difference for the runners up, and not tries – because, it’s y’know, what the fans want. It’s pretty correlated anyway – except for Ulster, who have the 6th best try count and the 16th best points difference. Pity they are gone. Anyroads – here’s the Cordite Predictions for the knockout seedings:

  1. Northampton (23)
  2. Toulon (22) – better points difference
  3. Clermont (22)
  4. Bath (20) – win pool due to better points difference with Toulouse, and better tournament points difference than Wasps
  5. Wasps (20)
  6. Toulouse (20)
  7. Racing Metro (19) – better points difference than Leinster
  8. Leinster (19)

Two all-French quarter finals, and all-English and a trip to Northampton. In truth, Leinster would take that ahead of trips to Toulon or Clermont, but we implore them to go to Wasps and win: for the fans, for Ireland, for the Pro12 and for the foreign markets which are more important than ever nowadays.

by whiffofcordite on January 22, 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 22, 2015

https://whiffofcordite.com/2015/01/22/bully-boy-tactics/

Ireland Squad Announcement Day

It’s Ireland squad announcement day tomorrow, a day which typically allows fans to grumble that their favourite fourth choice wing has been overlooked for someone they perceive to be not quite as good, for the role of holding tackle pads opposite Tommy Bowe in Carton House. As ever, it will be a case of trying to read between the lines to try to form an insight into Joe Schmidt’s thinking, but chances are he won’t give too much away. Expectations are that a single squad of 40 or more names will be named, with those being dispatched for Wolfhounds duty to be decided closer to the match

Nonetheless, a handful of themes to look out for are:

  1. Just back from injury

A number of prominent players are at the cusp of returning, or have just returned, from lengthy lay-offs. Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien, Keith Earls and Iain Henderson would enhance any team, so no doubt Joe Schmidt will want to give them every chance to prove their fitness. Rhys Ruddock is also in line for a return after a not-so-long period out injured, and Jared Payne is another who is recently back to fitness. There’s also Nathan White, who could be in the test squad. On l’autre hand, he’s unlikely to throw in so many players who are short of match time together into his test team. Chances are he’ll want to see these guys get as much action as they can over the next few weeks. Hopefully we’ll see Keith Earls start for Munster this weekend. The Wolfhounds match could prove a handy tool, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a very strong panel on paper, if somewhat rusty in practice, named for that game.

  1. Low representation for Ulster

Ulster’s nightmare season and heavy injury toll looks set to leave them with their lowest representation since, well, since Kidney was in charge. Chris Henry, Dan Tuohy, Andrew Trimble, Paddy Jackson and Stuart Olding are injured, while Robbie Diack has lost his form. Payne, Best and Bowe are all likely to be in the squad and Henderson should be there too provided he shows a bit of spark in the next two weeks, but who else? Darren Cave and Craig Gilroy, at a push. Dan Tuohy is particularly unlucky to be injured as he was one of their few forwards to impress in recent months, but alas, he’s out.

  1. Sea change at prop?

As Mike Ross’ season has gone a bit John Hayes c.2011, Joe Schmidt has some decisions to make at prop. Matt O’Connor described it as a sea change, as Mike Ross has been left out altogether, with Marty Moore starting and Tadgh Furlong his deputy. Moore has turned the fortunes of the Leinster scrum on their head since returning from injury and his newfound status as first choice prop at Leinster is almost certain to be emulated at test level. Could Mike Ross be jettisoned entirely, on the premise that once your time’s up, your time’s up? Or will Schmidt want to see him for himself before throwing him into the bin? Nathan White, Tadgh Furlong and Rodney Ah Here are all liable to be in the mix so the cupboard isn’t bare, although none are names that will give sleepless nights to Joe Marler or Tomas Domingo. The end of one of the most remarkable test careers in recent history may be about to end.

  1. The Leinster three-quarter line is back

Useless most of the season, Leinster’s back play has been much improved with the return of Dave Kearney, Fergus McFadden and Luke Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is guaranteed to be in the squad, and we’re dreaming of a Henshaw-Luke centre partnership for the Italy game. Kearney and Fitzgerald should make the enlarged panel too, with Bowe, Zebo and Earls likely to be the back-three men joining them.  The new-look backline at Leinster has seen Gordon D’arcy squeezed out, and it may be his Ireland career will go the same way as Mike Ross.  He’s likely to skate in to the enlarged panel but may find himself out of the matchday 23.

  1. Say hello to Jack Conan

… but just don’t stand in his way. New caps may be thin on the ground after a number of players broke their duck in Novemeber, but one player certain to make his acquaintance with Carton House’s Farrow & Ball muted tones is Jack Conan. With Ireland lacking carrying prowess and Rhys Ruddock and Robin Copeland missing in action in recent weeks, Conan has not so much climbed up the pecking order as run into it and smashed it out of the way.

  1. Fly-halves needed

With Jonny Sexton out of the Italy game and only able to participate in non-contact training and Paddy Jackson sidelined altogether, Ians Madigan and Keatley are walk-ins to the squad and matchday 23. It probably leaves room for an additional fly-half, with a view to playing the Wolfhounds game where Schmidt is unlikely to risk either of the above picking up an injury. It might just be a good opportunity to call JJ Hanrahan up to the squad to give the poor lamb a reminder that somebody out there loves him. In 2009, Declan Kidney made a similar move by picking an out-of-favour Jonny Sexton for the Wolfhounds ,and the selection paid great dividends, with Sexton acknowledging that he gained in confidence from it and it started to turn his season around. We all remember how it ended.

We’ll follow up with post-announcement reaction below the line.

by whiffofcordite on January 21, 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in Ireland, Joe Schmidt, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 21, 2015

https://whiffofcordite.com/2015/01/21/ireland-squad-announcement-day/

Just What Was That?

When we heard the news that Conor Murray was going to miss the trip to Globo Gym and their 4G pitch (bet you hadn’t heard Sarries had one, had you? The Irish media don’t dwell on it much), any lingering hopes we had that Munster could eke out a win pretty much disappeared.  On the eve of the game we tweeted that Egg Chaser was predicting a drubbing by Saracens but Palla was going for more of a bloodless coup.  It turned out to be both.

Munster were routed in every facet of play – the scrum, which had creaked under BJ Botha all season, was marched backwards. By Mako Vunipola! The breakdown was a breeze if you were a Saracen – every ruck resulted in nice easy ball, whereas when Munster had possession, poor Duncan Williams, hardly blessed with decisiveness at the best of times, had opposition forwards all over him. The lineout was a fiasco. Munster’s kicking game took no account of the Allianz Park surface. Their big players were not a factor. Munster simply could not get into the game.  Any time they had a platform they made a mistake.  Saracens are a good side, one of four sides (Toulon, Clermont and the Saints being the others) who will not be happy unless they win this competition, but the scale of Munster’s humiliation was frightening to behold. Just how did it come to this?

It was all neatly encapsulated by the two trademark BT Sport-mid-match interviews with coaching staff.  Mick O’Driscoll’s vox-pops sounded just as Saracens were in the process of gaining 30m and setting up the platform that would result in their first try.  It gave the impression of a man fiddling while Rome burns.  At around the 60 minute mark, Saracens’ Paul Gustard was asked to discuss the victory in waiting and tried to convince those watching at home that it wasn’t done yet, but you could tell from his demeanour that he knew the game was won.

It’s been a miserable first half-season for Axel Foley in the job he has worked so hard to get – the brave and the faithful can live with indifferent league form, especially when it comes sweetened with two thumping victories over the arrogant Ladyboys from Dublin, they can live with defeats to sides as good as Clermont and Saracens, but Munster fans are wondering how the team can go out so far off the mental pitch required for a game aptly described by Axel as one with “no tomorrows”. They had a tough pool, no question, but it wasn’t in the script needing a last minute drop goal to beat Sale, or losing their home unbeaten record to French teams, or to lay down so meekly against a team perfectly placed to make Munster bitter. Rob Penney’s teams might have benefitted from kinder draws, but any European exit was with their heads held high, making a higher-quality team sweat buckets before getting over the line.

Penney himself never got an easy ride from the press – the stuttering league performances were seen as evidence he didn’t fit, and the wide-wide games with Donncha O’Callaghan popping up on the wing before Munster had “earned that right” were scoffed at as an alien style imposed on an unwilling team. When Munster did resort to a fruitier forwards-based effort and won, the credit went to the players. When Penney’s contract wasn’t renewed and Axel Foley was given the job, many felt Penney would be glad to be out of there – getting not much credit for dragging a transitional team to successive HEC semi-finals. But no Penney team ever capitulated like Foley’s Munster did at the weekend, and it makes you wonder where the camp is right now – when Paul O’Connell is making elementary errors and Peter O’Mahony is anonymous for 60 minutes, it needs to to be asked why the players aren’t producing.

Is it the personnel? Well, it’s a very similar squad to the one that made last year’s semi-finals – POC might be a year older, but Murray is if anything even better, players like Dave Foley, Duncan Casey and CJ Stander are much improved, and Ian Keatley is having his best season as a professional. The centres are different, but hey, what’s new? It’s more or less the same panel.  Injuries?  Sure, Varley and Sherry are a miss at hooker,. but Casey has played well enough to be a minor cause celebre when he didn’t get picked for Ireland in November.  Keith Earls hasn’t been fit, but he missed a lot of rugby last year, and if anything the backrow options have been enhanced by the return to form of Tommy O’Donnell.

Is it the gameplan? The narrow forwards-based plan is certainly more like (cover your ears) “traditional Munster values”, but then again, so is winning important games in Europe, as is producing the type of clinical control exhibited by Saracens on Saturday. Their most-talented youngster, JJ Hanrahan, has tired of not playing and has flounced off to Northampton – Foley pronounced himself “mystified” then picked Dinny Hurley and left Hanrahan kicking his heels for 76 minutes.

Is there something else? It feels like raking up old muck, but when emailgate happened, most of the punditerati were on the TV and the radio to say it was much ado over nothing and the squad would quickly move on. All except Bernard Jackman that is, who said it would destroy the dynamic in the dressing room and take a very long time and hard work to move past – it’s important and relevant because Jackman was the only pundit asked who actively coaches a proper side – Grenoble, currently sixth in the Top 14, and with a good case to be a better side than Ulster, Munster or Leinster. Maybe the squad just hasn’t move on yet.

Four years ago, the last time Munster failed to make the quarter-finals, the coach had the Week 6 balm of a home game against an average English side – last time Lahn Oirish, this time Sale Sharks – Munster will want to see an angry response to get some mojo back, for what it’s worth. Then the real business gets underway.  McGahan used the ensuing Pro12 campaign to rebuild and made some changes, notably bringing in Conor Murray and James Cawlin for Strings and Leamy, and Munster went on to win the Pro12. It’s imperative that Munster do something similar – though probably more along the lines of expanding the gameplan than bringing in new personnel – and grab this season by the scruff of the neck. No-one wants the defining memory to be the limp capitulation in Allianz Park.

by whiffofcordite on January 19, 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in Axel Foley, ERCC, Munster, Saracens

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 19, 2015

https://whiffofcordite.com/2015/01/19/just-what-was-that/

There Is No Such Place As …

Harlequins! Or: Ospreys! Or: Wasps! Or: Racing Metro! And, of course, Saracens – as we will doubtless hear tired repititions of for the rest of this week. But the existence, or otherwise, of a place called Saracens is completely irrelevant to the game this weekend. The club itself is as stable as it has been since Nigel Wray got involved – they are close to celebrating two years in Allianz Park, where they consistently attract 8,000-9,000 for Premiership games, and Mark McCall is approaching four year of quiet excellence as supremo.  And I hear the tannoy rings out clear as a bell.

McCall has finished 1st in the league three times out of four (once helped by half a season of Brendan Venter), won the grand final itself once, and was a TMO call away from doing so again last year. In the HEC, Saracens might have been memorably outclassed by nouveau riche arrivistes Toulon last year, but they thumped big game chokers Clermont Auvergne in the semi-final, feeding them an ugly forty-burger. The previous years saw losses to Toulon and Clermont in the semis and quarters respectively.

The squad itself is stable and well-balanced, and has quality throughout – the pack is as strong as you would expect from a Premiership side, and there are internationals in most backline positions. They are a proper club, like it or not, and the fact that Munster is a coherent geographic entity that you can be from will not be a decisive factor in the game.

But what factors will be decisive? Saracens have been defeated only three times in two year at Allianz Park – twice to the Northampton Saints, and once (when depleted by the Six Nations) by London Oirish. They defeated (and scored four tries against) Clermont Auvergne there in Round 1 of the ERCC while Munster laboured to a last minute victory over Sale Sharks. This won’t be a matter of turning up, singing louder, and letting the cowed Britons bend the knee – an actual gameplan will be required.

And they need to win – before the season, we expected this pool to come down to bonus points, but its not going to happen – Clermont’s win in “Tomond” means that someone will finish with 5 wins, someone with 4 and someone with 3. If Munster are to avoid being the ‘3’, this is the one they need to win.

First, discipline – don’t give Saracens easy points. Saracens are the top points scorers from the boot in the Not-So-Boshiership, scoring 195 points in 13 games – a neat average of 15 points a game. With a front row of, at best, Cronin (just back from injury), Casey and BJ Botha, there is a risk Poite will earn further ire by rewarding the dominant scrum (likely to be Saracens), as he tends to do. But that is out of Munster’s control (largely) and can only be managed, as opposed to turned on its head. But if Munster start giving away breakdown penalties in their own half, the jig is up – even an easy 6 points to the boots of Charlie Hodgson or Owen Farrell (both kicking 80% this season) is likely to be insurmountable, the margin of error being very slim.

Regular viewers of Saracens (we don’t see enough of them – we have yet to sup from the poisonous chalice of BT Sport, but that’s likely to change, given how great the Boshiership is to watch; yes, really) tell us that they are vulnerable to being attacked through the centres, utilizing quick hands and smart lines. Something that Dinny Hurley brings to the table, for example. Wait, what? Joking aside, a Munster selection with JJ Hanrahan at 12 is one that Saracens won’t like to see. With potential wingers of Keith Earls and Simon Zebo, the last thing Saracens will want is someone who can get them the ball. A selection of Hurley will signal an attacking gameplan whose scope barely extends beyond the fringes of the ruck. Saracens will treat this as meat and drink, and is almost certainly a losing hand.

The first game between these sides was as tight as the proverbial duck’s arse until Rhys Gill went and did something stupid. Munster profited from his absence to score the game’s only try and tag on an extra three points, which ended up being the difference between the sides. The game was essentially lost by something dumb from Saracens. Flip the venue to England, and look at the side’s intervening form, and Saracens are deservedly favourites – for Munster to win, they can’t rely on Lady Luck in the form of a bounce of the ball or a silly yellow card. Simply turning up and giving it all isn’t going to cut it – they’ll need a gameplan to take advantage of Saracens’ weaknesses.

Expect the game to be described as a ‘must-watch’ from all corners of the media, and while any do-or-die game involving Munster has a reasonable chance of a dramatic finale, chances are it will be spirit-sappingly dull.  Foley admitted his team needed to ‘not get bored’ executing their game-strangling kicking game in the last match, and expect more of the same here.  Conor Murray put air on the ball 17 times in that game, and we can expect something similar again – assuming he recovers from a neck injury.  The game might not be so much ‘must watch’, unless you’re really into that sort of thing, as ‘must follow’ on your Ultimate Rugby app, which could be the best vantage point, at least until the final 20 minutes which should provide a pulse-raising endgame.

by whiffofcordite on January 14, 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in ERCC, Munster, Saracens, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 14, 2015

https://whiffofcordite.com/2015/01/14/there-is-no-such-place-as/

Competition for Places

Without being especially impressive, competition for places has begun to heat up at Leinster.  Whatever their issues, they are unique among the provinces in their strength in depth.  Where Ulster and Munster’s team selections for the big games are relatively clear-cut (and not in an especially good way either, unless you’re a really big fan of the Ross ‘brothers’ Clive and Bronson), Leinster find themselves with some hard decisions to make ahead of the last two rounds of pool matches in Europe.

The team has yet to click into gear, though they do appear to have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, with a more structured attack and less willingness to resort to a lowest-common-denominator game of kicky-chase.  Their main problem against Cardiff was the number of times they dropped the ball in good positions.  Another issue was the breakdown, where the likes of Josh Navidi and Gethin Jenkins were able to dominate and slow ball down, or worse yet, win turnover penalties.  It’s been an issue all season, where Leinster have been working off slow ball far too often.

Castres are coming to town in Europe next weekend, and Matt O’Connor should have tries on his mind.  Win the game whatever, don’t disrespect the whatsitsface, physical team who will present a something: expect to hear it all this week in the meeja interviews, but pay no mind. This Castres team will have their minds on the post-match dinner from the moment they leave the dressing room.  Leinster must win with a try bonus point, and should be looking to cut loose.  Wasps had the 5th point wrapped up after little over half an hour and put seven tries on the scoreboard by the finish.  Leinster should be aiming to do likewise.

Jerseys up for grabs start in the front row, which has been largely mediocre in the tight all season.  Encouragingly though, against Cardiff the front row unit of Michael Bent, Richardt Strauss and Marty Moore put in the best scrummaging performance from a Leinster team this season.  With Mike Ross running out of steam, Moore’s return to fitness couldn’t be more timely.  We’d pick him from the start to stabilise the scrum, which was destroyed by Harlequins.  At hooker Strauss vs. Cronin has always been competitive, and it might just be worth retaining Strauss for his superior scrummaging and throwing.  Cronin to cut loose in the final half hour?

Second row is more like an anti-competition for places, as Mike McCarthy and Kane Douglas strive to underachieve one another.  Douglas appears to be going around the pitch looking to make eye-catching hits, but makes no impact for vast swathes of the game.  McCarthy had one of his better games against Cardiff and was fairly prominent.  We’d give him the start, alongside The Northern Hemisphere Brodie Retallick – thanks Barnesy.

The backrow has become a source of apparent riches at Leinster, even without Sean O’Brien.  But for all that they can’t win a breakdown.  Odd.  Jordi Murphy is back and more up to speed than he was against Harlequins, and the emergence of Jack Conan presents a serious ball-carrying option.  Shane Jennings is fit again and Rhys Ruddock is presumably in the mix for selection, as is Dom Ryan who is having a fine season.  The only man certain to play is Jamie Heaslip who is expected to return from injury.  That’s right, Jamie Heaslip picked ujp an injury.  But only for one game, obviously.  Which cards to play from the deck of five?  Here’s a strange thought: given the breakdown issues, why not relinquish Healsip from carrying duties and ask him for a shift in the trenches, a role he has performed to great effect with Ireland.  Draft in Conan to the blindside to make up the carrying deficit, and put Rhys Ruddock at openside, where he was superb for Ireland in November.  Could it work?

Eoin Reddan should start at 9.  Luke McGrath has a vocal fanclub, and he had a good game against Cardiff.  He’s explosive and exciting but his basics aren’t at the required standard yet, and Reddan continues to be one of the most underrated players on the island.  Don’t forget he was last seen saving the day against Harlequins.  McGrath to bench perhaps?  Isaac Boss’ days are surely numbered.

Fly-half.  That old chestnut.  Gopperth or Madigan?  Gopps’ place-kicking was awry against Cardiff but there was much to commend elsewhere in his game.  I expect we’ll see Gopperth picked with Madigan at 12.  Does that spell the beginning of the end for Gordon D’arcy?  It just might, especially with Noel Reid, Ben Te’o and Luke Fitzgerald also in the mix for centre jerseys.  Te’o showed he has the footwork to go with the crashing and – whisper it – looks like he might bring something to the backline.  Fitgerald is a must at 13 where he has been excellent on his return.  Again, what about this for a slightly wild-card, but potentially devastating midfield: Madigan-Te’o-Fitzgerald?  Ay karamba, what a lick-smackingly exciting prospect!  Just do it aready, Matty!

On the wings, Dave Kearney and Fergus McFadden are back and starting to look match-fit.  We’d pick both of them.  Kearney can beat defenders, and the Kildare Lewis Moody can win yards in contact.  It’s harsh on Darragh Fanning, but Kearney and McFadden are just a notch better in terms of class.  Zane Kirchner may miss the 23 altogether.  He has been a curious signing: a 30-cap Springbok with great pedigree but not really what was needed for the team.  He is most effective at full-back where Leinster already have Rob Kearney, and as a wing he is somewhat pedestrian.  He looks like an expensive luxury at this point.

Probable Selection: Bent, Strauss, Ross, Douglas, Toner, Ruddock, Murphy, Heaslip, Reddan, Gopperth, Kearney, Madigan, Fitzgerald, McFadden, Kearney

Our selection: Bent, Strauss, Moore, McCarthy, Toner, Conan, Ruddock, Heaslip, Reddan, Madigan, Kearney, Te’o, Fitzgerald, McFadden, Kearney

by whiffofcordite on January 12, 2015  •  Permalink
Posted in Leinster

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 12, 2015

https://whiffofcordite.com/2015/01/12/competition-for-places/

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