World Cup: Irelandwatch Episode 2

It sort of crept up on us. One minute it was the middle of the summer and the next Ireland were playing an international rugby match.  Declan Kidney named his team at luncheon yesterday, and true to form, trying to infer a whole lot from it is like trying to pick up mercury with a fork.   It’s hard to reason that the selection advances or hinders anyone’s possibilites of touring.
First of all, there is good news that Rob Kearney, Jerry Flannery and Tomas O’Leary are back in action and fit for selection.  Expect to see Kearney and O’Leary feature heavily over the next four weeks – both are seen by management as key First XV players, and both need the gametime badly.  Given Flannery’s history of aborted comebacks, management might be more careful with regards to him, but we expect he will be dying to get out and play.

Now for the spots still up for grabs:

  • This was possibly Conor Murray’s best chance of seeing action, and his touring chances could be receding.  There have been indications he is not considered as close to the squad as we had hoped, and this is another.
  • In the backline it’s a big opportunity for McFadden to show what he can do.  He’s pretty adept at 13 as well as 12 – we all know how well he played last year, he just needs to take up where he left off.
  • Don’t worry too much about Niall Ronan’s surprise appearance.  The Lunsterman had a pretty ineffectual season last year, and won’t be anywhere near the final squad.  He’s just keeping the shirt warm – Jennings is available for selection next week and Wally and SOB will be in the mix too, so Ronan will be thanked for his time and bundled back home.
  • Confession time – we know next to nothing about Mike McCarthy, though we understand he had a good seaon last year for Connacht.  He’s probably behind Locky and Donncha Ryan in the shake-up for the 4/6 spot (although Brendan Fanning suspects otherwise), but we look forward to seeing him
  • Ligind watch: the entire Munster 2008 front row is on the bench – we could see a very poignant triple substitution around the 60 minute mark
Finally, it’s great to see Leo Cullen captain the side, the 100th man to lead out his country.  The Wicklow lock has been harshly treated in the past, and while he may not be the most eye-catching player, he is a fine captain, firm but polite in dealing with referees, and he knows when to talk and when to walk away.

And, regarding the game itself, it could be a scrappy affair (read: GRIM). Scotland look to have a slightly stronger pack out and should just about shade it.

World Cup Preview: Argentina

Group B Opposition: England, Scotland, Georgia, Romania

Pedigree: The newest rugby superpower, and at this level, it has been at Ireland’s expense. Lyon in 1999 and Adelaide in 2003 were close, but we got panned in 2007. In that respect, we weren’t alone – France were beaten twice, and the extent of the Pumas’ quality in France was illustrated by the air of disappointment that surrounded them only finishing 3rd.

Players to watch: If a Martian landed on Earth and demanded to know what a prop forward was, WoC would put forward the redoubtable Rodrigo Roncero – always fun to watch and a master of the dark arts. Juan Manuel Leguizamon and Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe provide the class in the backrow, and Santiago Fernandez has been a revelation at Montpellier this year – we hope to see him re-produce his regular season form.  Meanwhile, Leinster fans may even get to see what Mariano Galarza actually does on a rugby pitch.

Good Tournament: Argentina are top seeds in this group, and will plan to beat England, then continue their hex on the French in the quarter-final and reach successive semi-finals.

Bad Tournament: Losing to the Scots, something of a bogey team for Argentina, and going home early.

Prospects: Argentina go into a tournament with respect, for the first time. Four years on from 2007, its hard to credit that virtually nobody had them coming through the group. In the event, they were one of the best teams in the competition, regretably freezing against the Boks.

To an extent, the objective is now different. In 2007, the team played with a controlled nationalistic fervour to show the world they meant business, and demanded to be seen as equals. This time around, the generals of 2007 (with the exception of Pichot and Hernandez) may still be there, but with a new generation being gradually infused, retrenchment is the order of the day. The lack of regular engagements precludes a definite judgement on where they stand, but they seem to be a level below four years ago.

The set-piece still bristles with menace and intent, and the two back-rows mentioned above are among the best around, but the backline isn’t quite together yet. In the halves, Dr Phil is a flaky 10 and Vergallo has yet to fulfil his promise. Ouside those two, its more perspiration than inspiration. As usual, European rugby sustains the Argentinian team and Bustos Moyano and Agulla have impressed since coming North, however, the aptly-named Marcelo Bosch is more typical of the approach. Also, its going to be interesting to see who kicks goals – while Contepomi wouldn’t be regarded as the best under pressure, Bustos Moyano scored 283 points for Montpellier, and nailed many a pressure kick.

The attritionary nature of this pool will suit Argentina’s pack, but having England first may be a disadvantage – last time out they improved as the tournament went on, and the leathering of France in the 3rd place playoff was the most complete display of any team. It’s likely to come down to a Scotland-Argentina showdown for second place here, and Scotland have the misfortune of being first up for the huge Georgians … just before they play the Pumas.

Verdict: Vigourous debate is ongoing at Cordite Towers. Firstly, we both agree that England should take them. Regarding second place, Palla Ovale points to Scotland’s impressive record against the Pumas (better than Ireland, France and England), whereas Egg Chaser sees a much stronger XV taking on a Scotland team harrowed by the Georgians (much like Ireland in 2007) and putting them out of their misery. Egg’s (slightly) greater conviction just carries the day, but NZ will whack and bag them in the quarters.

World Cup Preview: England

Group B Opposition: Argentina, Scotland, Georgia and Romania

Pedigree: Plenty of it.  Indeed, England are the great World Cup overachievers.  Nobody is better than they at gritting their teeth and finding a way to the final, no matter how awfully they are playing.  The memory is hazy, but I believe they won the cup in 2003.

Player to watch: Much depends on whippersnapper scrum half Ben Youngs.  He was dynamite in the autumn against Australia, when he set the tempo and unleashed the English backs at speed.  But two shockers in the Palindrome in the spring have raised questions about his ability to play on the back foot.  He is coming in to the World Cup on the back of injury and a delayed preseason.  Can he get his spark back? If Johnno gives Manu Tuilagi a run-out in August and he seizes his chance, England’s atttacking play could be transformed. The young lad isn’t quite yet the successor to Bod, but he is dynamic and exciting – just ask Barnesy.

Good Tournament: England expects and all that.  They will be looking to make the final, though a semi-final would be a pass mark for a young side.

Bad Tournament: If they bow out in the quarters or before, it will be considered a disappointing showing.

Prospects: This is a more talented, and better coached, squad than the one which somehow turned themselves around and made the 2007 final.  Looking through the side, there are plenty of reasons for the rose-clad chariot swingers to be cheerful.  Any England tight five will always be dogged and resilient, and the return of Matt Stevens augments an already strong front row.  Much (too much?) is expected of Courtney Lawes, and the backrow will be nicely balanced, with Lewis Moody and Nick Easter accompanied by one of the Toms Croft and Wood.

At half-back they’ve the youthful vigour of Youngs and Flood and outside them they’ve running threats in Chris Ashton (a contender for the top tryscorer of the tournament) and high-class full-back Ben Foden.

It’s a young side, and they have the look of a team enjoying themselves.  They’re playing a more attractive brand of rugby than has been seen from an English side in who knows how long, and they are the Six Nations champions.  But, as always with England, this leads to over-confidence.  In the spring, following wins against Wales and Italy, we had an explosion of media hyperbole.  England were primed to win the World Cup! They had destroyed the twin powers of Wales and Italy!  Swing Low! Expectations were checked after the defeat in Dublin, but we all know that once England get off to a winning start against Argentina, the media hubbub will begin again.
Besides the hype, there is also the material weakness in midfield.  Shontayne Hape has yet to show he is an international 12, and Mike Tindall will always be Mike Tindall, even if he spends his pre-season becoming Mr Ugly Royal Bird. What a pity Matthew Tait and Olly Barkley have been so poorly treated.  But if Johnson takes a risk, and gives Manu Tuilagi a chance to wreak havoc, things could get interesting.
Verdict: Should have enough to top the group, and they usually have France’s number, so a semi-final is very achievable.  Probably a top midfield away from being a finalist.

World Cup Preview: Canada, Japan, Tonga

Group A Opposition: New Zealand, France

Pedigree: Canada have the best pedigree here, with a quarter-final appearance in 1991 in their locker, and generally respectable showings. Japan have just 1 win in 6 tournaments (which, oddly, Egg Chaser was at), and Tonga, historically the weakest Pacific Island, had their best showing in 2007, winning two games and running eventual winners South Africa close.

Players to watch: Former Kiwi and Leaguer Cooper Vuna is coming off a decent year with the Melbourne Rebels, and could shine on the Tongan wing. And don’t forget Barnesy wet dream Oooooohh Soane Tonga’uiha.

Cherry Blossom scrumhalf Atsushi Hiwasa was named emerging Asian player of the year this year, and if the lightweight Japanese forwards manage to get him some decent ball, he could make an impression.

Canada boast Paulie-basher and Clermont battleaxe Jamie Cudmore and the splendidly-named (and splendid) back-rower Chauncey O’Toole – who may well be an Osprey next season.

Good Tournament: Tonga will fancy themselves to win twice and run a big gun close. Japan will want to beat Canada, and repeat their PNC treatment of Tonga. Canada just want a win, but might be quietly confident of a second.

Bad Tournament: Tonga losing to a fellow minnow, or the others going home empty handed.

Prospects: All 3 of the small fry in Group A seem to be on the up. Japan won their first Pacific Nations Cup this month, pipping Tonga to the title with a last minute bonus point try against 12-man Fiji. The traditional Japanese weakness is size, so it was a pleasant surprise to see them deal with the Pacific Islanders. Tonga themselves were relatively happy with a second place finish – it took a surprise 28-27 victory for Japan to ultimately deny them the title (which also would have been a first).

However, Tonga have the comfort of knowing they have some big guns to bring back in, unlike the Japanese, and 6 weeks in camp pre-tournament (2 more than in 07 where they almost stunned the Bok seconds) will likely leave them primed to go from the off. If it were France first up, you might have half an expectation of a contest, but Les Bleus play them last and will be in their stride by then, and tend to enjoy the open rugby Tonga serve up.

Meanwhile Canada had a comfortable win over Italy A in the Churchill Cup and gave a respectable account of themselves against a Saxons side in the final which contained more than a few senior caps. And in last year’s edition, they knocked over France A. They are well-organised and well-funded, and are not to be underestimated – they have made life very uncomfortable for most 6N sides at some point (you may recall a last minute Rog penalty to salvage a draw back in Gatty’s time).

Verdict: This is essentially a 3 country mini-league – NZ and France will beat them all. Japan will go home luckless and winless (again), with the consolation of Mils Muliaina giving their domestic league some kudos. Tonga will be the one to put the heart across a big gun if they are under-estimated, but we have a sneaking suspicion the Canucks are going to run them close – the big game for Tonga is against the All Blacks, and Canada will be sitting in the long grass a few days later. Canada to win twice.

Oooooooooooooooooooooooohhh!

Jonah Lomu, discuss.

Only one of the most memorable figures in rugby history. His trampling of the puny Underwoods and Mike Catt in 1995 will live long in the memory, as will Will Carling’s bitter description of a “freak”.

Lomu’s pace and power were frightening, but beneath the physical side lay a cunning rugby brain and highly polished skills. Lomu would not have made the impact he did was he only able to run in straight lines into defenders – even Rog can make himself enough of a speed bump to slow down large Pacific Islanders. No agricultural bosher could have earned 63 NZ caps in the 8 years from 1994, only a talented genius.

However, in an amazingly funny article brought to our attention by blog buddy Matt, ESPN have besmirched the memory of one of the greats by comparing him not only to Oooooooooooooohh Matt Banahan, but to Lesley Vainikolo!

Read through your fingers, its appalling: http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/story/144993.html

Whiff of Cordite’s core rugby philosophy is insulted by this nonsense – genuinely talented footballers like George North, Caucau and Alesana Tuilagi belong nowhere near this hall of shame..

Elements of English rugby have continually learned the wrong lesson from their experience of Lomu, and the preponderence of useless and brainless boshers in the Sky Sports love-club (Banahan, Vainikolo, Shontayne Hape, Andy Powell, Jordan Turner-Hall, Sam Tuitupou, the list goes on) bears testament to this. This obsession with power and size has obscured opportunities for proper players like Matthew Tait and Olly Barkley. Ban(ahan) this sick filth!

World Cup Preview: France

Group A Opposition: New Zealand, Tonga, Japan, Canada

Pedigree: Close, but no cigar. Beaten finalists twice, and usually find themselves at the sharp end of the tournament. Generally capable of one huge performance, but can’t back it up. Still, New Zealand know all about them.

Players to watch: Backrow looks a particular strength. Thierry Dusatoir holds things together when all around him are collapsing, while space will need to be found for Louis Picamoles, who thrived at Toulouse this year, and Fulgence Ouedraogo, who was inspirational for Montpellier. Could Harinordoquy be squeezed out? Further back, Lievremental might have left WoC hero Clement at home, but we are very excited about Maxime Mermoz – Perpignan were classy with him and ordinary without.

Good Tournament: France have the talent and the set piece platform to make a serious statement, and should be looking to make the final.

Bad Tournament: If they fail to make the semi-final, Lievremont will be in trouble.

Prospects: It all comes down to the whims of one man: Marc Lievremont. Who will he pick? Nobody knows. What style will his team play? We haven’t a clue. After four years of erratic selections and baffling press conferences, they haven’t really progressed. They still beat Ireland, struggle against England, ambush one SH giant and get tonked by another (or even the same one) every year.

The squad Lievremont has selected is typically enigmatic. Lionel Beauxis and Clement Poitrenaud will be spending September at home. After appearing to be tied to Chabal for four years, he has finally cut him loose. Bayonne’s Yoann Huget – a poor man’s Shane Horgan at best – has survived the cut thus far, but there is seemingly no place for the vastly superior Julien Malzieu. And we still haven’t worked out what Damien Traille is for.

Nonetheless, there is an impressive depth of talent at France’s disposal. The backrow we have already discussed; and France should have the best scrum in the tournament, regardless of which props they pick from Domingo, Mas, Barcella, Poux and Marconnet. In Maxime Medard and Vincent Clerc they have outside backs capable of changing matches. At half-back, Parra is a marvellous player, and Francois Trinh-Duc, while not to everyone’s taste, has had a great season with Montpellier. The question remains: will the manager gel the team?

Lievremont has already spoken about putting out a B-team in the game against New Zealand, under the (not entirely ridiculous) logic that they won’t beat them twice. Assuming they do away with Tonga and the minnows, this would leave them with a probable quarter-final against the old enemy, England. Les Rosbifs dumped France out in the semi-finals in 2003 and 2007, with France fancied on both occasions. It would be a rare tournament where France do not put in one memorable performance; in all likelihood this will have to be it if they are to make it to the semi-finals or beyond. Otherwise, the guillotine beckons for Lievremont.

Verdict: Despite huge talent and one eye already on Johnno’s men, they will find it hard to overcome England in a quarter final.

Rugby World Cup: Irelandwatch Episode 1

Over the next few weeks we’ll be keeping a close watch on goings on in the Ireland camp.  This week brought the news that Kidney and his management team (bar Gaffney, who is going home to Australia after the RWC) have been rewarded with a new two-year contract on the eve of the World Cup.  We can’t help but be reminded of the similar decision in 2007 when Eddie was given a four-year deal, only for a disastrous tournament and subsequent Six Nations to beset the team.  So, we are down from four years to two – is this a case of learning by degrees for the IRFU?

In a sense, they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.  Give the contract, and we are all wincing as we recall Eddie’s Four More Years.  Don’t give it, and the question of the coaching team’s futures will follow them around the tournament.  But casting a glance around the other World Cup hopefuls, it does look as though discretion is considered the better part of valour: of the teams with ambitions of lifting the Webb Ellis Cup (which we claim to have) none of South Africa, France, England or New Zealand have offered their coach a contract beyond the World Cup – only Australia have made the commitment.

One comment from IRFU chief exec Philip Browne did cause us concern: he cited the ‘significant progress in the last two years in terms of results’.  Come again?  Ireland have won three from five in those two distinctly mediocre Six Nations chamionships and two from four in the November Internationals.  Pull the other one – our standards are much higher now – with four 6N wins and a big Southern Hemisphere scalp a minimum requirement.

What’s most worrying is the fear that the 2007 parallels could start to stack up over the coming weeks.  There’s more than a touch of Eddie about Deccie’s idiosyncratic team selections and excessive loyalty to certain players, as well as his lack of enthusiasm for using his bench.  Throw in a more than likely lopsided squad without a single openside and you might think Eddie was still there, pulling the strings behind the scenes.

But these fears need to be counter-balanced by the fact that Deccie’s management style couldn’t be more different to Eddie’s.  He’ll empower the players rather than dictate and, crucially, he looks set to get the physical side of preparation right.  Ireland were woefully underooked in 2007, but with five games in August, four against test level opponents, there is no chance of that this time around.  He’ll have them almost feral by the time we take the pitch against Australia in Auckland.  Let’s try to keep the faith for now.

World Cup Preview: New Zealand

Group A Opposition: France, Tonga, Japan, Canada

Pedigree: Won first time out at home in 87, but didn’t win in 95, 03 and 07 despite being the best team in the tournament. Not good enough. Repeated buckling under pressure has meant its squeaky-bum time already in NZ – the latest worry is that the Crusaders only got all the way to the final of the Super XV despite playing no home games, but didn’t win. Panic stations!

Players to watch: Were do we start? The best scrum in rugby, the most exciting young lock in the world (Sam Whitelock), a frenetic back row including a man who is allowed to enter rucks from anywhere (all joking aside, McCaw plays the referee better than any other captain around), the best outhalf in history, three outstanding centres, and strike backs so good Dougie Howlett wouldn’t get near the team. We’ll be leaning back and appreciating the brilliance of Dan Carter, the insouciant genius of SBW, and young Israel Dagg – a potential superstar.

Good Tournament: They must win every match, preferably with lots of tries. No pressure then.

Bad Tournament: With the way they have been playing, not winning the tournament would constitute an absolute disaster.

Prospects: Since 1995, they have specialized in peaking between tournaments. After 2007, they took a deep breath, sent apparent heir-apparent Robbie Deans to the then hapless Wallabies and persevered with Smiler Henry. Luckily, he has raised them to even greater heights, helped by a production line of simply fantastic players. Post-2009 rule changes have played right into their hands, and with a team full of brilliant support runners and intelligent footballers, they have only been beaten once since June 2009, and that was a perfect storm of Aussie brilliance and Stephen Donald (since banished for his crimes) ineptitude.

Writing pre-Tri-Nations, there is ample opportunity for us to look foolish, but we can’t see them losing another match this year. The pressure is becoming unbearable, but the last 4 years has been all about building a team so good that, even if they choke, they will win anyway. The focus, intensity and hunger of this team are top notch, and the age profile looks ideal.

We foresee 4 wins in the group stages by 40+ points (including over a French B team wearing an ill-conceived NZ-goading shirt), a quarter-final stroll over Argentina or Scotland, a swatting aside of the Boks or Ireland in the semis then finally getting a game in the final, but still overcoming the Wallabies by 15 points or so. The fact they are still close to even money is a reflection of the choke premium, but at home, they aren’t going to come close to losing a match. Richie doesn’t even need to commit breakdown murder for them to stroll home. But he will anyway.

Verdict: Champions at last.

The World Cup: It’s Coming

We’ve got World Cup fever here at Cordite Towers.  The big kick off is just 45 days away at the time of writing, and the build up starts here.  Once the tournament begins, Palla will be heading down under for three weeks with Ms Ovale and Little Ovale, and will be reporting regularly from various campsites throughout the country.  Egg Chaser will be keeping things together back in Ireland, and setting his alarm clock for 4am on a nightly basis (even for Georgia v Romania).

Over the next six weeks, we’ll be guiding you through the tournament on a group by group basis: we’ll have a look at each side’s prospects, we’ll highlight some players we think can have a big impact, and we’ll be monitoring the progress of the Tri Nations and Northern Hemisphere warm up games to see how the major contenders are shaping up.  Needless to say, we’ll be following the Ireland camp with an especially beady eye.  We’ll even offer some advice on managing the difficult kick-off times.  In fact we’ll be doing everything bar giving a history lesson on Maori culture.  Egg Chaser will be kicking things off with a look at the hosts, New Zealand in a matter of hours…

Did somebody order a Power of Four wristband?

On tuesday, Egg Chaser took a look at the forwards he expects to be jostling for position on the flight down under. It’s still a long way off, so we’re not all going to agree. One commenter even made a case for Mushy Buckley as a Lion, so at the risk of upsetting any Johne Murphy fans out there, here we go with the backs…

Scrum half

Pole Position: Ben Youngs is exactly the sort of scrum half you’d want to take on the Aussies.  Struggled a little in the latter portion of the season but has plenty of time to iron out the kinks in his game.

Look out for: Conor Murray. The Munster scrum half had a breakthrough lat year, and looks every inch the complete player. Should be Ireland’s first choice nine next season.

Needs to improve: The 2009 Lions Mike Philips and Tomas O’Leary will need to get their mojo back to be in the mix.

Too late for: Eoin Reddan will be pushing over the hill by 2013.

Fly half

Pole Position: Jonny Sexton looks by far the most complete and reliable of the options.  Needs to bring consistency to his game at test level, and the shirt is his.  Toby Flood would provide ample back-up.

Look out for: George Ford is already causing excited mutterings among England fans, who wouldn’t overhype a player lightly.  He is just 18, but served notice of his considerable talent in the recent U20 World Cup.

Needs to improve: James Hook has talent in abundance and wants to play more at fly-half but must learn to boss the game to be a Lions 10.

Too late for: The 2009 fly halves ROG and Stephen Jones will be past their best by the time 2013 rolls around.

Centres

Pole Position: Brian O’Driscoll will have to have the shirt torn from his back.  His body may give up before 2013, but for now he is still in poll position.  No inside centre currently stands out.

Look out for: Manu Tuilagi is the man who could take over from BOD.  He has some work to do on his defence, but looks explosive with the ball.  Fergus McFadden will be the established Ireland 12 by this stage and should be pushing for a spot.
It’s early days for two very young players who should make big strides between now and then: Scottish centre Mark Bennett has just signed for Clermont and is hoped to be the quality centre Scottish rugby has lacked for so long, while Luke Marshall will become a key player at Ulster next year.

Needs to improve: If Jamie Roberts can regain the form he showed in 2009, he is a nailed on tourist. But he has never looked the same player since.

Too late for: Possibly BOD and almost certainly Dorce.

Back Three

Pole position: Generally the most unpredictable, as form plays a huge part. On the left wing, Keith Earls and Max Evans look the most likely, while on the right it is hard to see Ashton and Bowe being displaced.  Ben Foden looks the real deal at 15, though Rob Kearney can challenge if he recovers from injury and adds greater variety to his counterattacking game.

Look out for: Lee 0.5p has been bedevilled by injuries, but if he can get back on track he can be world class.  Llanelli’s starlet George North also looks set to make a big impression, while Tim Visser becomes Scottish qualified next year, and if he can take his try-scoring exploits to test level will certainly be a Lion.

Needs to improve: Luke Fitzgerald endured a difficult season and needs to get back to his pre-injury form. If Oooooooooohhh Matt Banahan can add pace, a sidestep, softer hands, a brain and defensive positioning to his bulk, he could contend for a spot on the plane.

Too late for: Lee Byrne will be pushing 32, while it looks a tour too far for Shane Williams.

After the Six Nations next season, we’ll revisit and see how our Lions Ladder is looking.  No doubt we’ll try to rewrite history to make it look like we were right all along.