The early mornings aren’t easy – before you ask, no, we didn’t get up at 4.30 to watch Fiji v Namibia – but the first weekend was so good it was a pleasure to leave the scratcher.  Here’s a few things we learned over the first set of World Cup games:

1. Ireland are in trouble.  They destroyed the US scrum, took apart their lineout and mauled them at will, but could only muster three tries against one of the weakest sides in the tournament.  The lack of gameplan, skill, intelligence and support for the carrier was galling.  It’s sad to see so many good players playing so poorly. There is no basis on which to believe Ireland can trouble Australia.  Indeed, there is every chance Ireland will once again fail to get out of the group.

2. Hooray for the little teams!  Every one of the underdogs beat the spread.  Remarkably, the gap between the second and top tiers looks to have closed.  Romania were leading Scotland with 10 minutes to go, Japan got to within four points of France midway through the second half, and USA hung in for a late intercept to reduce Ireland’s winning margin to 12.  A genuine shock is on the cards.  Look no further than Wednesday morning, when a Scotland side with 11 changes and no Richie Gray takes on a feral Georgian pack including Mamuka Gorgodzilla, a world class scrum and a bunch of other grizzled Top 14 henchmen.

3. RTE’s choice of pundits is diabolical.  Watching the analysis of the highlights of Sunday’s action on RTE was a dispiriting experience.  Shane Horgan is no doubt a great player and a nice guy who looks good on TV, but what was he going to say, that his Leinster teammates and good friends had played like drains?  He’s too close to the players to offer anything.  Next to him we had our beloved Frankie Sheahan, a man for whom the word optimistic doesn’t do justice.  He assured viewers that the underdog spirit will inspire huge pishun in the Irish team, and that alone would beat Australia. It was left to Conor O’Shea to add some sensible commentary; he noted that all the evidence available points to an easy Australia victory.  We’re sticking to Matty and Franno.

4. Heroes in defeat were numerous.  The man of the match award could have gone to a losing player in any number of games.  Few Scots will forget Romania’s teak-tough hooker Marius Tincu for some time, while USA’s all-action flanker Todd Clever repelled Irish runners all day.  Tonga’s reserve prop Taumalolo carried the fight to New Zealand, and Japan’s scrum half Fumiaka Tanaka gave real impetus to their commendable running game.  Nobody deserved to lose less than Wales’ Sam Warburton, however.  The Welsh openside is almost impossible to dislodge from rucks – he dominated Heinrich Brussouw, the man who has been dominating Richie McCaw. He looks a star in the making, and an early runner for the Lions captaincy in 2013. 

5. New Zealand v Australia final looks inevitable.  It’s already impossible to see beyond a final involving these two wonderful teams.  None of their rivals even come close.  France look like they could wreak havoc, but can’t stay awake for the full 80 minutes.  England were ponderous and allowed themselves to be drawn into a pitch battle.  Ireland were hopeless and South Africa were deeply fortunate to beat Wales.  The passing, support running and execution of the Antipodeans is unmatched.

Group C Opposition: Australia, Italy, USA and Russia

Pedigree: Very disappointing.  Ireland have never been beyond the quarter finals, and have twice been dispatched in the group stages, on both occasions by Argentina.  The only time Ireland went close to a semi-final was when Gordon Hamilton scored that try…

Players to watch: it increasingly looks like all hopes will be pinned on Sean O’Brien.  The Tullow Tank was the outstanding player in Europe this year, and if he can use his explosive carrying ability to blow away Southern hemisphere defences, then we will have a world star on our hands.  He’ll probably have to do it from the openside flank though, where he never appears quite the same player.  In the back division, only Andrew Trimble managed to play his way into the squad.  He’s a strong, hard running wing with much improved feet and hands.

Good tournament: If Ireland can finally make it to a semi-final Deccie will be back in the nation’s good books.

Bad tournament: Ireland should get out of a fairly benign group even if they underperform – if they get to the last eight, but are hammered by both Australia and South Africa, it will go down as a failure.

Prospects: Let’s be honest, they’re not great.  Ireland is a nation of optimists, and the majority of the media spent the summer talking up Ireland’s chances of beating Australia, and setting up a potential path to the semi final and – who knows? – beyond that.  Much of it seemed to be based on Ireland’s performance against England in this year’s Six Nations, when everything appeared to click and Ireland tore England to shred, beasting them up front and playing at a pace that England’s ponderous midfield couldn’t handle. 

But even a cursory glance at the data reveals this game as a complete outlier – Ireland were poor in every single other game this season.  The Autumn series was a wasted opportunity (zero minutes for Mike Ross, one game against Samoa for Sean O’Brien).  In all four other Six Nations games they were ordinary, and in the most recent warm-up games simply abysmal.  Even the Cork Con Mafia are no longer so optimistic.

Kidney’s idiosyncratic selections have bemused us in the past, but the squad selection showed his willingness to make the hard calls.  It’s now a question of gameplan.  The backs, coached by the ageing Alan Gaffney, are playing a wide-wide game with little depth, plenty of lateral running and little penetration.  One-out forwards rumble into contact, and the ball goes back and forth across the pitch.  It’s awful to watch and easy to defend.  It’s Scotland.

Nobody should be fooled into false hope because Ireland have been holding back a few set-piece moves.  The number of times these can be used in a match is not enough to make a huge difference.  Besides, they’ll be Gaffney’s moves, and the current style is Gaffney’s style.  Leinster fans will recognise it from the low try-scoring 2008-2010 era, when he was the backs coach.  Given Ireland’s lack of pace, we would love to see a game based on offloading, support runners and quick recycling – in other words, the game Joe Schmidt brought to Leinster.

Verdict: Ireland generally produce their best when pinned into a corner.  Expect them to run Australia closer than you might expect, but come up short.  The opposite will occur in Dunedin, and the Italy game will be tight.  Ireland should have enough to scrape by, but South Africa in the quarter finals will be a step too far.  A familiar quarter-final exit.