Oooooooooooooooooohhh Barnesy’s Excited, and so are we!

It’s the first weekend of the Heineken Cup, folks, and that can only mean one thing: Barnesy’s back.  Unless you watch the English Premiership every week (confession time: we find it too dull) it’s only on Heineken Cup weekends that we get a full dose of Stuart ‘Oooooooooooooooohhh!’ Barnes.  Whether extolling Bath’s super-slick running game or conspiring to add to Munster’s disciplinary woes (right, Gerry?), or talking up his latest overhyped bright young thing, we love a bit of Barnesy.  But nothing beats that ‘Oooooooooooooooohhhh!!’ as a shuddering no-arms smash from some Island loose cannon upends a 75kg scrum half.

Here’s some of what we’re looking forward to this weekend:

It’s Barnesy time!
by whiffofcordite on November 10, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, No-Arm Smashes, Oooooooooooohhh, Shuddering Hits, Stuart Barnes

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 10, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/11/10/oooooooooooooooooohhh-barnesys-excited-and-so-are-we/

HEC Preview: Pool 5 & Pool 6

Pool 5: Biarritz, Saracens, Ospreys, Treviso

Pedigree: Solid. Biarritz have two final appearances on their CV, losing both narrowly. The most recent was in 2010, where they shunted the Liginds into the dust before losing to Toulouse in the final. Sarries were Glen Jackson-inspired semi-finalists in 2008, when they almost upset the Munster bandwagon. Ospreys have a smattering of knockout experience and Treviso have little to shout about – although they get closer to scalping a big name every year.

Preview: The experience of Biarritz throws up a frequently-cited curiosity of the HEC draw. Because, inevitably, some French side with little European pedigree qualifies every year (e.g. Agen, Bourgoin, Montauban, Racing Metro, Montpellier) and must be kept apart from other French sides, top seeded French teams tend to draw a bunny e.g. Italian teams. Which means they are much more likely to qualify for the knockout stages and hence keep their top rating, then draw a bunny, etc, etc. Biarritz are a functional side built around a garganutan pack, Dmitri Yachvili’s on-field generalship and Damien Traille’s boot – but they are pretty average, and “boast” Iain Balshaw in their backline. Still, it’s a formula that works well in European rugby, and they have punched above their weight.

They know how to take 10 points from Italian sides (notwithstanding last year’s shock defeat to Aironi), get losing bonus points away and then blow teams apart at home (or in San Sebastian) – they will be very hard to stop in this pool, in spite of their precarious position in the Top 14

Sarries, on paper, carry a real threat. They are English champions (albeit with a smattering of South African influence) and aren’t easily beaten. Their problem might be in picking up enough bonus points to qualify, as they aren’t full of tries. They will win their home games against the two outsiders, but could struggle to seal the deal away, especially in Biarritz, and double especially because they plan to bring the Basques to Cape Town in January for their “home” game – with the kind of climate that the Biarritz lads will prefer to the muck, bosh and boot of North Lahndahn.

The Hairsprays have started the RaboMagners in chipper fashion, careering along happily, and with the tightest defence in the league. The jettisoning of the like of Jerry Collins and Mike Philips and banning of fake tan seems to have helped with team spirit, and the club are in a better place. At home, they are strong and are difficult to beat – they will be looking to be in the mix for the knockouts, but won’t qualify this year.

Treviso are interesting – they are far away from the worst side in Europe now, and will be aiming for a home win to put in their locker – any of these three constitute a scalp and any win would be a big step forward for the Italians.

Verdict: Biarritz to cruise the pool, and maybe even get a home quarter-final. Sarries should win enough games to contend for a quarter-final as best runners-up, but could regret the holiday in the Cape. We think if Quins fail to beat Toulouse at home in Pool 6, Sarries are through.

Pool 6: Toulouse, Harlequins, Gloucester, Connacht

Pedigree: The most decorated group in the compeition, and all due to Toulouse – 4 wins and 2 runners-up appearances trumps everyone else. Gloucester reached the knock-out stages in 2008, and Quins in 2010, but both lost to Irish opposition, in Quins case in spite of a little help from Count Drac. Connacht are making their HEC debut.

Preview: Toulouse never stop – last year they did well in the Top 14, and gave Leinster their toughest game of the HEC in the semi-final. And it was still not good enough. They have recruited well over the summer and look primed for another huge season. Luke McAlister has hit the ground running, and a pool short on sharks will be welcome – they had a huge RWC contingent who they will want firing on all cylinders in May, the integration process of Dusautoir et al may determine the level of silverware spending the summer under Guy Noves’ beady gaze.

Quins have started the English season like a train – 10 from 10 in all competitions, and playing a pretty attractive brand of rugby as well. They have undoubtedly been helped by having virtually a full team throughout the RWC, including Nick Evans and potential FEC Chris Robshaw. We don’t doubt the momentum won’t last, but if they get an away win at Gloucester in week 2, they are contenders for the knockout stages.

Gloucester themselves have started well in England, but are another team which had a low RWC quotient, and a trip to Toulouse will not be pleasant to start things off. The game with Quins will determine their tournament, and if they lose, they may not have the stomach for the one game Connacht will fancy themselves for in week 3 – they are firm outsiders now, but don’t rule them out if they win well in week 2.

Connacht themselves represent 10 points in the bag for Toulouse and Quins, and at least 6 for Gloucester. They will target the Cherry and Whites and hope the Atlantic whips up a winter storm, but it probably won’t be enough – this is a step way beyond what Connacht have experienced, and while it’s great to see a new name in the tournamnt, it could get very grizzly in January.

Verdict: Toulouse will stroll this pool, without needing (or wanting) to get out of third gear. Quins have a chance of sneaking into the quarter-finals on their coat-tails if they beat Gloucester in week 2 – if they don’t they will need to beat Toulouse at home. Connacht to get zero wins, regretably.

by whiffofcordite on November 10, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Harlequins, HEC, Pool 5, Pool 6, The Wind and Rain-swept Sportsground, Toulouse

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 10, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/11/10/hec-preview-pool-5-pool-6/

HEC Preview: Pools 3 & 4

Pool 3: Leinster, Ooooooohhh Bath, Glasgow, Montpellier

Pedigree: Significant.  Leinster have won two out of the last three, and Bath won the Cup way back when in 1998.  Montpellier are taking their bow in the tournament, and Glasgow traditionally make up the numbers, but have provided the odd scalp.

Preview: When the pools were drawn, this looked an exceptionally kind draw for Leinster.  As European champions, they’ll be looking to put up a staunch defence of their Cup.  But history has shown the difficulty of retaining the trophy, and the departure of Nathan Hines and the deeply unfortunate injuries to Shaggy and Drico have made things a bit sticky.  Without those three, it’s hard to see Leinster being quite as powerful on all fronts as they were last season.  We expect them to be involved at the sharp end, but back-to-back Heinos may be a step beyond them.

Bath are a great old club in a magnificent town, but a pretty average team, despite the press banging on like a stuck record about the “running game” they last played in the 1990s.  The club is still in the process of rebuilding after the drug scandals in 2008, and the fact that Matt Banahan is their go-to guy says a lot.  Stephen Donald arrives fresh from a bizarre ascendance to hero status in Kiwiland and should give them a bit of solidity at 10, but they don’t appear to have the sort of gnarled pack that can deliver wins on the road.

Glasgow won’t threaten the knockout stages, and will be content to register a couple of home wins.  The news yesterday that Richie Gray is bound for Sale (!) in June is further indication of the sad state of Scottish rugby.

Montpellier are exactly the sort of French team that throws a Gallic shrug at the Heino and decides to concentrate on the South of France Drop Goal and Scrummaging Competition for the winter months.  They’ve won just twice in the Top 14 this season, but with their inspirational backrows Ouedraogo and Gorgodze back in harness, they will be far better than that suggests.  They open with Leinster at home.  Ideally, you would want to be going to the south of France in round five or six, when they’re out and no longer interested (see last year’s visit to Racing Metro), not in round one when the tournament still has novelty and they want to take a scalp for their fans.  It makes for an awkward opening tie for the holders.

Verdict: Leinster to win the pool, but not as comfortably as some suggest.  Bath second, but to miss out on Amlin qualification.

Pool 4: Leicester, Clermont Auvergne, Ulster, Aironi

Pedigree: Bags of it.  Leicester were champions in 2001 and 2002 and Ulster, as they love to remind everyone, won the Cup in 1999 – possibly before Munster did, but Egg Chaser is never the best on dates, so he can’t be sure.  Clermont have yet to make the impact their talent suggests they should.

Preview: Something of a pool of death, and one where the ‘As it Stands’ pool may be making a frequent appearance in the corner of the pool during Matchday 6.

Let’s get Aironi out of the way, shall we?  They haven’t improved their results from last year in the Rabo and will be on the end of six thrashings in this pool.  Done.

Each of the other three effectively starts with 10 points in the bag, and tries to climb their way to 20 or 21, which should get you through, as there’s a good chance of two teams qualifying from this one.  Don’t be surprised to see each of the Big Three win both home games against one another, in which case this will come down to who can secure those precious losing bonus points on the road.  Leinster and Munster can point to defeats in the Stade Marcel Michelin that felt like wins.  Can Ulster do the same?  It looks a year too early for them.  They have three outstanding forwards; Ferris, Best and Muller, and all must stay fit and at their peak.  Even with that trio they look one flanker short of really competing. If their pack managed to get quick, clean ball for their spritely backs, all bets are off, but they need 5 points from the first 2 weeks for starters.

Leicester are in the bottom half of the Premiership, and don’t look the force of yore.  They’ll always have a doughty spirit and a solid lineout, but with Ben Youngs set for an extended period on the sidelines, you feel they’ll plod rather than soar.  They’re usually good for a place in the knockout stages though, and Welford Road remains one of the toughest grounds in which to win.

Which brings us to the mighty Clermont.  This is their centenery year and they want silverware, after something of a victory lap last season.  Sivivatu has arrived to give them some real running threat, and they can mix and match David Skrela and Brock James at fly half.  Their pack is beastly.  They look the complete package, and can top this group.  Win at Ravenhill on Saturday and you can get your money out and bet on them to win the competition.

Verdict: Clermont to win the group, with Leicester to squeeze through as runners-up.

by whiffofcordite on November 9, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 9, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/11/09/hec-preview-pools-3-4/

HEC Preview: Pool 1 & Pool 2

Pool 1: Munster, Northampton, Castres, Scarlets

Pedigree: Huge. Munster are Heineken Cup royalty, and the Saints are no slouches either – 3 victories between them and 3 other final appearances. The Scarlets have a few semi-finals to boast of, most recently in 2007 when Ireland’s favourite un-droppable Welshman, Simon Easterby, led them past Munster. Castres have no history of note, but look a team on the rise, domestically at least.

Preview: Two years ago, Munster and Northampton were paired together in a memorable series of pool games and quarter-final. The Saints felt that they had the Liginds’ number after the pool, but they were taught a lesson in European Cup rugby in the quarter-final. And it’s a lesson they paid heed to, making the final last year with a series of gritty wins. Rope-a-dope was unlikely to work against Leinster, so they came out throwing the ball around and very nearly pulled it off. Munster, meanwhile, failed to make the knockout stages for the first time in 10 years in atypically harum-scarum fashion.

It certainly gives the impression the graphs of these two crossed last year, and we would agree. The Saints should win in Franklins Gardens and will be targetting Thomond Park – Munster will do well to tie this head-to-head in match points. Castres are very tough at home, but lay down like lambs away – they won’t care about the HEC, but won’t want to give up a proud home record. Northampton’s pack looks not only higher in quality, but more gnarled than Munster’s, and are better equipped to win in France.  They have a bit more depth this year after some good recruiting (Vasily Artemiev has arrived with a bang) and their St. Boshingtons contingent will be hungry to restore battered reputations.

The Scarlets are the joker here – they will be looking to break games up and give their exciting young backs plenty of quick ball – they could win a couple of games, but won’t be in the shake-up.

It will ultimately come down to who is better at winning away from home, and that’s something Munster failed to do last year in a notably weaker pool than this one – only Toulon was an intimidating place to visit. Forget the Miracle Match – getting through this pool will be the greatest escape of the lot.

Verdict: Northampton to win the pool and advance.  Munster into the AmlinVase

Pool 2: Cardiff, London Irish, Edinburgh, Racing Metro

Pedigree: Not great, but not as bad as you might think – Cardiff were runners-up in the first tournament, and have a few semi-finals as well – most recently in 2009, when Leicester beat them on penalties. Irish, amazingly, were semi-finalists as recently as 2008, when Toulouse sent them packing. Edinburgh and Racing have no achievements to speak of at this level.

Preview: The Group of Dearth – whoever ups their game here will win it. Let’s start with the least likely – Edinburgh. The Scots have regressed badly since their top 4 Magners finish a few years ago, and pretty much the only good thing on the horizon is Tim Visser. They will fancy themselves at home to Irish, and Cardiff and (particularly) Racing if they take their eye off the ball. Away, they will be eviscerated.

Irish are almost as bad – they have replaced the bosh-tastic but reasonably decent Seilala Mapasua with the bosh-tastic and terrible Shontayne Hape. Don’t expect fireworks in Reading – just the way Biiiiiiiiiiiiig Bob likes it. Irish will beat Embra at home, and probably Racing Metro, but achieve nothing else.

So its between Cardiff and Racing Metro. The French side will win all their home games, but won’t be too bothered about wininng away – they should knock off Embra, but might get well beaten in Wales. Cardiff have underachived given the stellar names in their squad in recent years, and they have Sam Warburton, the new Tana Umaga Richie McCaw and a rejuvenated Jamie Roberts. The structure of the RaboCiderPro12 will allow them to target games, and this pool is there for the taking if they get it right.

Verdict: Cardiff will win it, and continue pushing forward the feel-good factor in Welsh rugby. Racing Metro to get the Amlin booby prize

by whiffofcordite on November 7, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Cardiff, HEC, Munster, Northampton, Oooooh Shontayne Hape, Racing Metro

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 7, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/11/07/hec-preview-pool-1-pool-2/

Team in Focus: Connacht

Last season: C. They struggled domestically and failed to build on their AmlinVase semi-final from the year before. Then all their decent players left. However, Leinster winning it all meant they got a backdoor ticket to the HEC.

So far this year: Grinding on in the RaboProLeague – 3 wins from 7. They won’t be too pleased given everyone else has been understrength, but at least new players (of which there are many) have had some integration time.

Prospects: As usual, as soon as any Connacht players impressed, they bailed out of there. Sean Cronin, Jamie Hagan and Fionn Carr headed (back) to Leinster, and Ian Keatley went to Munster. Another bunch of surplus to requirement players from the other 3 provinces stepped into their shoes, but another season of embedding guys who will leave at the first opportunity is Connachts’s lot.

The front row will suffer for the loss of 2/3 of its starting contingent. The fantastically-named Rodney Ah You comes in a tight-head, but its more likely to be Rodney Peep Collapsing Yes You against the big sides. Hooker Ethienne Reynecke came from Sarries to replace Cronin, but its fair to say he isn’t top class. Brett Wilkinson is another Saffa, and is a decent honest loose-head who won’t let you down. Stewart Maguire used to be the a big prospect in the Leinster academy – lets hope he fulfils some hype.

Mike McCarthy held his own in the pre-RWC Ireland training camps and is typical of the current generational of Irish second rows (Paulie aside) – hard working but uninspiring. Connacht look to have recruited well in the back-row – TJ Anderson and particularly Eoghan Grace are young men who once had a promising career and have come West to do a Jirry and get regular gametime to step on. Grace was once in the position Peter O’Mahoney finds himself in – that is the young saviour of an ageing Munster back-row. It hasn’t happened so far, but at least now he has a shirt. Johnny O’Connor and John Muldoon are the grizzled veterans here – O’Connor once had words with Egg Chaser’s younger brother on Egg’s stag in his moonlighting bouncer role, and gained kudos for allowing trousers to remain on head.

Paul O’Donohoe never quite made the grade at Leinster – a couple of starts here and there tended to end when established names came back – he’s still young and possesses a snappy pass. He’ll think a few good few years in Connacht will set him up to return home to perhaps take Eoin Reddan’s place in the Leinster squad – he is not to be underestimated. Former Leicester Tiger Frank Murphy will backup O’Donohoe and is an able deputy. The (very) poor mans Morne Steyn, Niall O’Connor, has joined from Ulster. In Matt Williams final year in Ravenhill, O’Connor kept iHumph on the bench, and he offers a towering boot and defensive solidity. In many ways, its exactly what Connacht need – he will kick goals from anywhere inside the opposition half, and keeping the scoreboard ticking over will be a key component in the hanging-in-there gameplan Connacht generally adopt.

The diamond in the backline is young Tiarnan O’Halloran, the star turn in the Connacht academy’s respectable production line of the last year or 2. The lad is only 20, and can play at centre or full-back. If he continues his progression, there is a fair chance he could be the first Connacht player since Eric Elwood to consistently make national squads. He should get plenty of time this year, and expect him to catch the eye. Hopefully players like O’Halloran do not have to leave Galway to make career progress, but the reality is, without regular HEC football, you aren’t getting international recognition.

Relatively familiar names like Gavin Duffy and Mark McCrea are bog standard Rabo backline merchants. Fetu’u Vainikolo at one stage was a peer of Israel Dagg, but concerns about his positioning led to the Highlanders letting him slide, and he has wound up in Connacht – he could be a real danger and is a like-for-like replacement for Carr, albeit with greater Oooooooohhh factor. Kiwi Benson Stanley was at one stage interested in rocking up to Galway, but rumour has it he confused Connacht with Leinster and didn’t sign when he realised the the difference between the RDS and the Sportsground – and we aren’t talking about the availability of butternut squash focaccia and skinny caramel frappaccinos.

Connacht’s inaugural HEC adventure was kind in terms of the bank balance potential of the draw – European big guns Toulouse will bring their unique brand of brilliance to Galway, and will be joined by Conor O’Shea’s Harlequins and the eminently beatable Gloucester. Toulouse in November will be the biggest and most glamourous game in Connacht’s history, and the exposure alone will be worth its weight in gold. At home, Connacht’s small squad tends to mean that, instead of rotation, they target particular games to make best use of resources – this means they tend to mix heroic home victories with pastings on their travels. Its not always pretty, but you can only work with the tools you have

Verdict: Despite the chopping and changing, the summer has been a successful one for Connacht – season ticket sales has rocketed following Heineken Cup qualification, and the feel-good factor around the province is high. The increased exposure and revenue should help bring through more Tiarnan O’Halloran’s, which is realistically the best way forward for the poor relation of Irish rugby. The need for regular HEC rugby is likely to only be fulfilled through the back door, so young talent is the way forward.

On the pitch, we foresee some schizophrenia in the HEC. Connacht have generally been very competitive at home in the AmlinVase, and might target Gloucester, and should come very close to winning that one. Away, it could be painful. Five match points in the pool would represent a major triumph for Elwood.

In the RaboLeague, Connacht are struggling after 7 games in which every other side has been under-strength. Finishing above someone other than Aironi would ensure a good season at home. The chances of getting back to the HEC rest solely on the shoulder of the Leinster squad, but the increased exposure, revenue and investment from this season will mean it is a good season for Connacht no matter what happens on the field.

by whiffofcordite on November 4, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Connacht, Eric Elwood, HEC, Hell or Connacht, Ooooohh Vainikolo Og

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 4, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/11/04/team-in-focus-connacht/

Team in Focus: Munster

Last season: A curate’s egg.  For the first time, Munster failed to make it out of their HEC group, and were lamentable in their pivotal game in Toulon.  The sight of their scrum being shunted around the park and a collective loss of discipline appeared to mean the jig was up for McGahan.  But Munster salvaged a difficult year with a Magners League win, with particular satisfaction derived from beating their rivals to secure it.  The long and painful transition to a new era spearheaded by the likes of Conor Murray, Keith Earls and Felix Jones looks to have begun.

Season so far: business as usual, with five wins from seven in the Pro12. From a rudimentary scan of headlines in the Indo, Peter O’Mahoney appears to have cured the lepers and turned water into wine.

Prospects: This is a huge season for Munster, with one overriding objective: re-establishing themselves in Europe.  The Heineken Cup has always been the lifeblood of the province, and despite finishing with silverware last year, for most fans the season was a disappointment.  Failing to get to the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup just shouldn’t happen to Munster, and it never happened to the liginds.

It’s an objective that looks increasingly difficult.  Munster have been drawn with Northampton, beaten finalists last year, and travel to Castres (second in the Top 14) in Week Two.  A much-fancied Scarlets side makes up the group.

What sort of Munster team will be put out to face these sides?  A pretty unfamilar one, all told.  Generation Ligind, essentially the pack and halves that delivered two Heineken Cups, has all but passed into the next world.  Quinny has gone, Hayes and Horan will be bit part players, Flannery’s future is less certain than ever and David Wallace’s injury robs them of their primary carrier.  Dennis Leamy, no longer anything like the powerful, aggressive player of four years ago, may not make the team and Peter Stringer is now third – maybe fourth – choice scrummie. Stalwarts like Donncha are starting to fade, and the production line is not quite what it should be – Munster under-20s are poor, and have been passed out by Connacht.

The front row will likely be du Preez, Varley and Botha.  The success of the scrum entirely depends on Botha staying fit and in form.  His last season at Ulster was marred by injury and mediocrity; Munster will hope they have the 2009 version.  A creaky Munster scrum is nothing new, of course, but they are used to putting out top class second and back rows.

Paulie can still mix it with the best, and is fit and flying – he was missed hugely in the early stages of the HEC last year. Micko has been performing very creditably (and at a level above Donncha) for two years now – his experience will be a useful asset, though he may take a back seat to allow the likes of Donnacha Ryan is and Ian Nagle more gametime. Nagle is a prospect, but still a little underpowered, but is – he’s unlikely to feature at HEC level this year, but we are hoping Ludd gives him some Rabo action.

Moving back, the glory days of the Quinny-Wally-Axel axis are a dim and distant memory – the 2012 unit is likely to be Ryan/Leamy-O’Mahony-Coughlan.  Ryan seemed to finally break into the first team last year and played fairly well on World Cup duty with Ireland, but the jury is still out – he has only one HEC start, and that was in defeat to London Irish.  Coughlan is an honest, hard-working journeyman, but struggles against the better sides.  Peter ‘the son Hugh Farrelly never had’ O’Mahony is the wildcard – Munster fans had better hope he’s half as good as Farrelly thinks he is – otherwise they’ll be taking on Saints with the ineffectual Niall Ronan at openside. Paddy “Slievenamon” Butler was a barnstorming underage number 8 a few years back, but he hasn’t made it past first base yet – we’re hopeful he can breakthrough for some Rabo games at least.

At half, Conor Murray will likely own the 9 shirt for big games, unless Tomás gets back to 2009 form – and we aren’t optimistic on that front. ROG still has the fire, no doubt there, but he’s 34 now. As one of rugby’s most forthright, intelligent (and divisive) men, he will be aware managing succession is crucial to sustained success, but don’t expect him to be helping Keatley into the 10 jumper just yet.  Munster’s hopes will rest on ROG’s ability to turn dirty, slow ball into scores. Again. It’s not code red yet, but this looks like a potential problem position for Munster in two years’ time unless Keatley can prove himself HEC standard.

Outside the halves, it’s a huge pity that Felix Jones is injured; he added much to Munster’s attack in the second half of last season.  At centre – a problem position last season – Tuitupou has been swapped for Will Chambers, signed from Queensland Reds.  It should be an improvement (lets face it, Chambers would have to be pretty bad to be worse than Tuitupooooooooooooooohh), but a lot rests on the young shoulders of Danny Barnes.  There’s Lifeimi Mafi too, who was superb in the ML final last year, but hopeless (and pretty dirty) for most of the campaign. Keith Earls has class with ball in hand, but moving him around is guaranteed to maximise defensive mistakes – Ludd and Axel (and Keith) need to decide what they want him to be – he looks a winger to us, but many in the Cork Con Mafia media are convinced otherwise.

All told, it’s not a side to strike fear into top-class opponents the way the 2004-2009 vintage did.  Northampton will fancy themselves in the opening week visit to Thomond Park.  Munster will be relying more than ever on the great warriors Paul O’Connell and Ronan O’Gara to navigate them through the tough games – it may be too much to ask.

Forecast: We think Munster will ultimately come second to Northampton.  The two will probably trade wins, and Thomond Park will remain a fortress, but Munster will probably need to get two wins on the road, and we just can’t see it.  In the Pro12, Munster’s ability to consistently churn out results against weaker sides will stand to them, and it’s impossible to see the semi-finals without them.  Another tilt at silverware is inevitable, but they may come up just short this time.

by whiffofcordite on November 3, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Conor Murray, Generation Ligind, HEC, Munster, Paul O'Connell, Peter O'Mahony, RaboDirect Pro12, Ronan O'Gara

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 3, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/11/03/team-in-focus-munster/

Team in focus: Ulster

Last season: A. Ulster had a fantastic season, their best since Humph retired – some shrewd Saffa recruitment and up-and-coming young talent led Ulster through their HEC pool, and, with a little more belief, the Saints were there for the taking. Third place in the ML secured a playoff, but an(other) inevitable defeat to Leinster ensued it ended potless in Ravenhill.

So far this year: If last year was A, this season has been C- so far. They didn’t have many players in NZ, but the ones they did have were crucial – the spine of the team (2, 5, 6, 9, 11, 12, 14 including captain, vice-captain and on-field lieutenants) were gone. The forwards have been too lightweight to get ball for the talented backs and old faultlines have re-appeared – e.g. iHumph’s salloon door tackling.

Prospects: The shocking HEC draw has concentrated minds in Ravenhill – there is no room for error, and they must hit the ground running and beat the in-form and intimidating Clermont Auvergne next week followed by a tilt at the Tigers the week after.

The pressure seems to be telling a little and Ulster are struggling to get motoring. The hope was that the younger players would put some pressure on the established names, and that the RWC returnees would be coming back into a fight for the shirt. That hasn’t happened, and the string of losses is worrying.

On the personnel front, the question marks are mainly around whether the players who did well last year can step up. Paddy McAlister looks a real prospect at loose-head – he’s physical and aggressive and certainly looks more effective than Tom Court. If McLaughlin throws him in against the (very) big guns of Clermont and Leicester, it will be very interesting. Opposite him, John Afoa on the tight-head side can’t come in soon enough – Court’s scrummaging has always been passable at best, and it is frankly abominable on the tight side. Rory Best isn’t being shifted, but young Niall Annett has captained every age group he has played in, and will be given a taste of Rabo action this year – one to watch in 2015.

Further back, Ulster will want big seasons from Dan Tuohy and Chris Henry. Tuohy is a great ball carrier and when on form, seems to have all the tools to be an international player. The problem is that, particularly this season, his form has been up and down. The return of Muller alongside him (and Best) should help him concentrate on his own game.

The Ulster back-row is in a bit of flux. You want your back-row to be well-balanced and to have a tackler, a carrier and a line-out merchant. Fez is all 3 really, Pedrie Wannenburg is a carrier and Chris Henry is, well … nothing, really. For Henry to continue his progression, he needs to make a shirt and a role his own. He is probably best-suited to 6, but the imposing frame of Fez is blocking him in the big games (assuming he is fit). At 8, he is behind agricultural Bok bosher Wannenburg, who might be fairly one-dimensional, but he gets across the gainline and has a happy knack of picking up tries. Which leaves 7, where Willie Falloon is a much better, albeit inconsistent, fit. Henry is in danger of being left behind, but he has potential and is a good leader – it’s a huge season for him. The afore-mentioned Falloon is a classic openside and Ulster look much better balanced with him in the side. He is a younger man and has yet to produce consistently, but if he gets form and starts, he balances the team much better. Which leaves Henry on the bench…

Pienaar and iHumph offer Ulster a balanced and exciting halfback pairing. The idea of a play-making scummie is still a bit odd here, and it gives Ulster the ability to play it either way. Pienaar’s game management and kicking is top class, and it allows the luxury of Humphreys silky skills and woollen defence at 10. Paul Marshall on the bench offers snappy service and a fast break as the game opens up. Also, look out for a fascinating battle between Paddy Jackson and James McKinney for the Young Outhalf Prospect Cup. At centre, the current incumbents are Nevin Spence and Paddy Wallace, with Luke Marshall and Darren Cave backing up. The competition should bring the best out of them all, and probably usher in Paddy Wallace’s swansong. In Cordite Villlas, we hope to see Spence in a green shirt very soon.

Out wide, it seems strange that its less than 2 years since Timmy Naguca, Mark McCrea and Clinton Shifcofske were trundling around Mount Merrion wasting good ball. Trimble and Danielli are genuinely HEC class, and youngsters Craig Gilroy and Conor Gaston will hope for lots of gametime. Adam D’Arcy is a fantastic broken field runner, but it’s all a bit pointless given he can’t actually pass the ball. Ageing Saffa boot merchant Stefan Terblanche has been brought in to cover for the unfortunate Jared Payne, and will actually contribute – Ulster do not have a safe as houses full-back a la Bob Kearney in the squad.

Ulster got an absolute stinker of a HEC draw this year – just when they needed something benign (e.g. Biarritz) to establish themselves as a quarter-final side, out popped the worst conceivable pool – Leicester and Clermont. To be fair, neither of those two would have been happy to see Ulster – Leicester have had some very bad days in Ravenhill, and Clermont, despite being among the three best sides in Europe for the last 4 years, have seen their ambitions founder on Irish soil.

Nineteen points will generally get you close to a wild card for the knock-out stages, and it’s a simple formula – 4 wins and 3 bonus points. Ulster have to let tie-breaking criteria think of themselves, and hope perhaps that Clermont do a Perpignan and get a result in Welford Road. They will aim for a double over Aironi and two other home wins. As for bonus points, the most likely scenario for getting three is two try numbers from the Italians and one losing point in Leicester – nobody gets one in the Stade Marcel Michelin (except Munster and Leinster). It’s a tall order, but Ulster played the timing of their fixtures well last year, and its an easy argument to make that now is the time to be visiting Welford Road.

At home, it’s about getting into the top 4 – only Leinster stand out in the Rabo pack, and Ulster, Munster and the bigger Welsh sides are of a similar standard. Fourth place will do, but fifth wouldn’t be a disaster if some of the younger guns get useful and productive gametime.

Verdict: Despite all the optimism Egg Chaser can muster, it’s a huge ask to get out of this pool. We think they will come mighty close though. We forecast 18 points and a finish behind Clermont. ERC tie-breakers will decide if its them or Leicester who join Munster in pursuit of the AmlinVase. At ProDirect level, they won’t get a home semi-final, but will do enough to get an away one – the lack of Irish internationals will work in their favour in February and March. Unless of course Deccie goes for revolution not evolution… Nah, playoffs it is.

by whiffofcordite on November 2, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Brian McLaughlin, HEC, iHumph the salloon door, Oooooooooh Pedrie Wannenburg, Ruan Pienaar, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 2, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/11/02/team-in-focus-ulster/

Team in Focus: Leinster

Last week we caught up with the domestic season so far, but it’s hard to escape the sense that the phoney war is now over and the serious business starts this Friday. This weekend the provinces reintegrate their full quotient of frontliners, Leinster take on Munster and Ulster face Connacht, and the following week the Heineken Cup kicks off.  We’re going to have an in-depth look at each of the Irish provinces, and we’ll look at the Heineken Cup groups after that.  We’re kicking off with European Champions, Leinster.

Last season: A+ all round. Joe Schmidt overcame a terrible opening month to deliver a second Heineken Cup in three years.  Unlike the first Cup triumph, Leinster were imperious throughout the competition; Schmidt reinvigorated a tired looking backline by introducing an offloading game that made them more potent than ever in attack, while retaining the hard-nosed winning mentality forged under Michael Cheika.

So far this season: Ticking over.  Five wins in the Magners League, but unsurprisingly, have yet to scale the heights of last year.

Prospects: Leinster will be looking to go one better than last season, which can only be done by winning both the Heineken Cup and the Pro12.  On the face of it their prospects couldn’t be healthier.  Joe Schmidt is fully settled in the role, and now tipped as the next Ireland coach, and a raft of players who made an impression last year will be a year older and more experienced: the likes of Rhys Rudock, Dom Ryan, Fergus McFadden and Eoin O’Malley will be looking to push on and start the big games this year. 

Back row is an area of notable strength, where Sean O’Brien has graduated to the status of global star, and Jamie Healsip will look forward to playing his natural game after a subdued World Cup.  Jennings, McLaughlin, Ryan and Ruddock will be toughing it out to to start alongside them.  With Ross and Healy, the scrum looks rock solid and the addition of Cronin at hooker means Leinster have solid cover for the outstanding Richardt Strauss.  In the backline, Rob Kearney is back to full fitness having had a sound world Cup and the returning Fionn Carr brings out-and-out pace, a missing ingredient since Disco Den’s retirement.  A relatively benign draw (Bath, Glasgow, Montpellier) in the group stages of the HEC puts Leinster in the position of joint tournament favourites, with Toulouse, to win the Cup.

It looks like an impossibly rosy picture – but a couple of clouds are looming.  Second row is a worry.  It is impossible to overrate the contribution of Nathan Hines to last year’s HEC win – the big man’s handling skills were crucial to the offlading game Leinster play, but he has been forced out by the IRFU.  Early indications are that Devin Toner is being groomed to start in his place this year.  At 208cm, Toner is a completely different player to Hines.  He played badly last season (his restart work is frequently appaling), but has started well this, and has a newfound, and badly needed, aggression about his play.  The middle of the lineout should be safe enough with him on the pitch, but Leinster will miss the power, and that bit of mongrel that Hines brought to bare on the team.  Much will depend on whether Toner steps up to the plate.

And what of the centres?  Brian O’Driscoll played the World Cup on one shoulder, and assuredly won’t get through a season unless he is given the chance to properly recover.  How he is handled by the Leinster management remains to be seen, but it must be possible that Leinster will have to cope without him for the early rounds of the Heineken Cup.  Gordon D’arcy has struggled for consistency for some time, and in a world of 110kg centres, looks decidedly small these days.  Shane Horgan is a grievous loss, and leaves Leinster without a big man in the backline.  It means we’ll be seeing more of Fergus McFadden, who was knocking hard on the door last year – this has to be his breakthrough season.  If the BOD-Dorce-Shaggy axis is M.I.A. for vast swathes of the season, it’s hard to see Leinster retaining the Cup, but at the same time they need to start safeguarding for the future.

There’s also the possibility of ‘second season syndrome’ for Joe, and the historical difficulty of retaining the Heineken Cup (only Leicester, in 2001, have done it).  What looked like an easy HEC draw became tougher when Leinster were sent to Montpellier in the opening week.

Forecast: Leinster should qualify from their group, but it may end up tougher than is anticipated.  Lose to Montpellier in opening week, and they’ll have to go to the Rec and win – a result they should get, but not easily.  The knockouts are impossible to predict this far out, but Leinster will be in the shake-down.  In the Pro12, there should be plenty of bitterness stored up by losing out to Munster last year, and Leinster will be looking to pip their rivals this time.  They should manage that, and the likelihood is that Leinster will win silverware in one of the two competitions this year – but a double will remain beyond them.

by whiffofcordite on November 1, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Brian O'Driscoll, Gordon D'Arcy, HEC, Jamie Heaslip, Joe Schmidt, Leinster, RaboDirect Pro12, Sean O'Brien

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 1, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/11/01/team-in-focus-leinster/

Back to the Day Job…

What with the World Cup being so all-encompassing, it hasn’t been the easiest to find the time to follow the less glamorous domestic leagues.  But now that the New Zealand adventure is over for once and for all, it’s a case of ‘back to the day job’ for the northern hemisphere players.  In the meantime, the team domestiques have got the show on the road in the big boys’ absence.  Here’s a quick refresher on what’s been going on.

RaboDirect Pro 12

What’s happened so far? Well, it’s got a new name for a start, so those wishing to demean it will have to stop calling it the Cider Cup and find a new nickname.  Six rounds of games have been played.

Looking good: Ospreys are the pick of the bunch, with a surprising six from six record.  Having jettisoned a number of underperforming, highly paid galacticos (sayanora, Jerry Collins!), the team is being rebuilt around home grown players.  Justin Tipuric and Dan Biggar have been to the fore.  Leinster and Munster are ticking over nicely with four wins apiece, although both have lost once at home.  Treviso are comfortably halfway up the log, with two wins on the road, including a notable victory at Ravenhill.

Looking grim: Ulster have lost three in a row, and can’t get their talented young backs enough ball.  Aironi find themselves in a familiar position, propping up the table.

Making a name for themselves: Peter O’Mahony has captained the Munster team while Paulie’s been down under, and has already been compared to, erm, Richie McCaw by a typically feverish Hugh Farrelly, though whether he was wearing his matching ‘I Heart Munster’ cufflinks, tie and socks at the time of going to press remains unclear.  Nonetheless, O’Mahony could be starting some big games this year, and is one to keep an eye on.  Ian Madigan’s running game and eye for the tryline have impressed at Leinster.

Coming up: the tournament’s tri-annual showpiece, where Leinster and Munster collide, is on October 4.

Aviva Premiership

What’s happened so far? Six rounds of games have been played, with an unknown, but high, number of defenders having been run into by ball-carrying Samoans – Oooooohhhh!

Looking good: Conor O’Shea’s Harlequins have won all six games and look to have taken the step up from last season that so many expected.  Relatively unaffected by the World Cup, they had the princely Nick Evans all to themselves, and have made hay while the grounds are still hard.

Looking grim: What on earth are Leicester doing second from bottom?  In truth they’re missing a lot of key players, and will improve once the likes of Castro, Cole, Flood, Murphy and the Samoan harbour-jumper
are back in the side.

Making a name for themselves: Any of the young whippersnappers in the Quins team. Their terrific captain Chris Robshaw continues to make a name for himself, and show the English selectors what they missed out on.

Coming up: Andy Powell and Tony Buckley will be debuting for Sale shortly.  They’re third currently, can it continue?

Top 14

What’s happened so far? They’ve been busy, playing eight rounds of games so far.

Looking good: Clermont Auvergne and Castres are top of the bus at the moment.  Clermont routed Perpignan 39-3 at the weekend, with Nathan Hines getting his first try for his new employers.   Toulouse and Toulon have also had positive starts to the season.

Looking grim: It wasn’t Perpignan’s first thrashing: they were whipped 38-0 by Toulon the previous weekend.  More concerning still is Biarritz’ position right at the bottom.  Dull at the best of times, they have been positively embarrassing without Yachvili, Traille and Harinordoquy to get them out of trouble.

Making a name for themselves: Luke McAllister has been winning rave reviews having settled quickly into life in Toulouse. Le Rouge et Noirs have recruited well, and will be challenging, as ever, for silverware on all fronts this year.

Coming up: Toulouse v Stade Francais, one of the most glamorous match-ups in Europe, is the pick of the bunch this weekend.

by whiffofcordite on October 27, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Clermont Auvergne, Harlequins, Leinster, Munster, Ospreys, Premiership, RaboDirect Pro12, Top 14, Toulouse

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 27, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/10/27/back-to-the-day-job/

What If … Wales had beaten South Africa?

So … that was the World Cup that was. New Zealand, the best team in the tournament, won it, but lost the final. A monumental choke didn’t cost them because of an absolutely shameful performance from Joubert. Example: on 76 minutes, the following happened:
  • Jerome Kaino leaps over a ruck and grabs the ball. Cue French demands for a penalty
  • Joubert: Leave it!
  • Kaino throws the ball back on the French side
  • Joubert: Ball is out!
  • NZ compete and ultimately force a knock on
Appalling. We have no desire to harp on about refereeing, but its really not acceptable. Anyway, we aren’t here to talk about Craig Joubert, we are here to talk about New Zealand.
So, they are a brilliant side, but they aren’t that good when forced to manage with Andy Ellis and Beaver at half-back – not that surprising – how would Ireland fare with Isaac Boss and Niall O’Connor pulling the reins?
Here at Whiff of Cordite, we think there was only one other side apart from France capable of beating the Blacks – the mighty Springboks. The rest of the Northern Hemisphere sides would have supinely surrendered, and we saw how easily the Wallabies were swatted aside in the semi-final.
With South Africa, you can be assured of 80 minutes of high intensity and physicality. You can also be certain that, like France, they genuinely believe they can beat New Zealand, and will plan accordingly.
“What If?” scenario 1 is an obvious one, that South Africa managed to turn territory into points against Australia, and go through to a semi-final, but we thinking the more interesting one is below, as later was better to play New Zealand.
This scenario goes back over 6 weeks, to September 11, when a late Francois Hougaard try helped the Boks squeeze out Wales 17-16. We’re not sure if we can get it down to one moment – P Divvy deciding to keep faith with the underperforming Bryan Habana maybe – but lets say Wales managed to close out the game – how would the tournament have panned out?
On the Kiwi side of the draw, we don’t see much impact – even if Wales managed to beat Australia (which they didn’t last Friday), they would not have beaten New Zealand. In the top half, South Africa would have been pitted against Ireland. There is a reasonable chance Ireland would not have been as sloppy as they were against Wales if faced by dark green jerseys, but the performance was way below what was required to beat the Boks – SA victory.
Next round, its France. And it isn’t France of the final, its France of the semi-final – who, to be brutally fair, were desperate. Save Heinrich Broussow being rightly red carded for a tip tackle on Vincent Clerc in the 17th minute by the half-French and arrogant (copyright Barnesy) Alain Rolland, the Boks would have done it.
Now it’s the final – and the New Zealand nerves are starting to jangle. Your average South African rugby man does not have an inferiority complex regarding anyone, never mind the black shirt, and the ferocity and clarity of purpose shown by France would most likely have been replicated.
On the other hand, France have dimensions that South Africa don’t – you don’t need to worry about Morne Steyn breaking the line and looking to offload the way Francois Trinh-Duc did – but the manner of the New Zealand collective panic gives South Africa a chance.
And, finally, the trump card. Picture the scene – 76 minutes have gone, New Zealand are a point up but South Africa have possession, it’s a ruck about 35 metres from the NZ posts. Jermone Kaino leaps over the ruck and grabs the ball. Instead of “Leave It”, you hear “Penalty Green”. Craig Joubert, watching in the stand, leaps up and cheers – Alain Rolland has just awarded his fellow countrymen a penalty 35 metres out, with 4 minutes to go, and the most reliable goal-kicker in the world has the ball in his hands……

by whiffofcordite on October 26, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Craig Joubert, France, RWC11, South Africa

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 26, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/10/26/what-if-wales-had-beaten-south-africa/

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