Six Nations Week 1: Wayne (Barnes)’s World

Week 1 has passed, and nothing really has changed. France are still great, England are still rubbish, Ireland still have no gameplan, Scotland can’t score tries, Wales are quite useful and Italy don’t win away.

But we decided to flesh out the above into something more concrete instead.  Our Week 1 Review, split by champions and old nags:

The Winners’ Enclosure

France

A four try win with a minimum of fuss is a reasonable start for France.  They didn’t look any great shakes for large stretches, but late in the second half you could see them start to enjoy themselves.  Wesley Fofana had a good debut, and his partnership with Rougerie is going to cause a lot of teams a lot of problems.  Louis Picamoles was transformed from a pussy cat at the World Cup to his wrecking ball best here.  Happily for France, their favourite opponenets, Ireland are coming to town for their habitual beating next week.  The fixture list is set up nicely, and the final game against Wales could be a decider.

Happiness Index: 3/5 – decent start to the new campaign, but the French public will demand a more complete performance next week

England

Ugh, that didn’t make for pleasant viewing.  New players, new captain, new gameplan… but the song remains the same.  It’s reassuring to see some things never change, and England just can’t fall out of love with the bosh.  Their backrow was thouroughly outplayed, and only when Morgan came on did they have any decent carrier on the pitch, but they defended doggedly and allowed Scotland to shoot themselves in the foot just enough to win the game.  For a scratch team it’s not the worst of starts, but going to a passionate Stadio Olimpico in Rome will be tough. The media loved it though – Stephen Jones was even saying how good Botha, Dowson and Farrell were.

Happiness Index: 3/5 – one away win in the locker, if they can get another next week they are looking at a successful championship

Wales

Missing four tight forwards, losing Warburton at half time, and with Rhys ‘Toto Schillachi’ Priestland having a shocker, you’d think the writing was on the wall.  But oh me oh my, what a group of matchwinners these guys have.  A sensational backrow, and the biggest, bruisingest, and skilfulest backs in the competition.  Roberts looked short of form, but Jonathan Davies boshed hole after hole in the Irish defence, while George North looks like the player of the age.  Hard running, clean lines, great angles. 

Happiness Index: 5/5 – Wales will be thrilled.  Gatty once again outfoxed Kidney and is a shoo-in for the Lions job.  Scotland at home next, and a great chance to build momentum.

The Losers Corner
Ireland:

Gerry Ending: Blind Dave Pearson! *foam* Wayne Barnes!! *froth* Les Kiss does know how to run an attack!!! *thumps desk* Mother Deccie of Kidcutta!!!!

Farmer Farrelly Ending: Sexton missed kicks! *thumps desk* Miniscule Leinster centres!! *foam* Where is Ooooooooooohhh James Downey!!! *froth* Padre PiO’Mahoney!!!!

Mega Happy Honest Ending: Ireland were like pussycats at ruck time – only substitute Donnacha Ryan attempted to slow Welsh ball, and he got speared for his troubles. Without BOD, Ireland were clueless at the breakdown, and clueless on how to play. Oh how we hoped the noises about an actual gameplan were true – why we believed them is another thing. The personnel sweep all before them in Europe at provincial level, but look like befuddled fools in a green shirt – it’s time for some coaching please. And by coaching, we don’t mean putting the video analyst in charge of attack. 

Happiness Index: 1/5 – very difficult to see how Ireland can have a good championship from here.  Paris beckons. Tomorrow we’ll be looking in more depth at Ireland’s woes.
Scotland:

Now, this is a tough one. Yes, Scotland lost in desperate fashion. Yes, they butchered countless chances. Yes, Robbo did select Dan Parks, who will surely never play for his country, or Scotland, again. And yet. We felt there were some chinks of light. When the Embra halves came on after 55 odd minutes, they played with real speed and purpose. The laughable handling of the players outside killed a lot of moves, but in at least some cases, they were genuinely unfamiliar with the whole “gainline” thing Greg Laidlaw was at and had to reach for flat passes. And the Scottish back row were brilliant, Ross Rennie’s mastery of ruck time harking back to the days of JJ and Finlay Calder. Robbo made a serious boo-boo in picking this team, and confidence is no doubt rock bottom, but they might actually have something to build on – if Laidlaw gets picked to start, Scotland might actually have *whisper* a platform.

Happiness index: 2/5 – at least they’ll get the right team on the pitch now.  All is not lost, but that was a huge opportunity blown

Italy:

An 18 point defeat was within the bookies pre-match spread and Italy will be happy with that. Granted, the French barely broke sweat, but this was a match Italy were never going to win – what they needed was to leave Paris with their dignity intact. And they did that. They looked pretty breezy, contributed to a good quality and open match, and looked kind of rejuvenated. Clearly, without a 10, they are going to struggle, but they have a great back row, a good coach, a decent pair of centres and, now, a spring in their step. In terms of next week, they got the ideal result from England – an absolutely dire performance with a win, which means few changes are likely. Italy have never beaten England, but they will be waiting in the long grass of the Stadio Olimpico this Saturday.

Happiness Index: 3/5 will feel they’ve a good chance of grinding England into the dirt

Six Nations: Match Previews

After all the drama surrounding team selections, squad announcements and even refereeing appointments, the small matter of the actual games of Six Nations rugby take place this weekend.  We’re looking forward to it.  Now for the bit where we put ourselves in the firing line and predict what will happen.

Scotland v England

We hummed and we hawed.  We saw the England squad and thought they couldn’t possibly win.  Then we saw the Scotland team, with Dan Parks at 10, and thought they couldn’t possibly win.  Then we cried for a bit thinking about the two hours of our lives we’d each be giving up to watch the blasted game.  Then, finally, we saw the England team and went back to thinking they wouldn’t win.

This one’s all about the New England – new captain, new players, new attitude, new interim coach, new playing style.  The trouble is none of it looks all that great.  Mouritz Botha, Geoff Parling and Phil Dowson are adequate Boshiership journeymen rather than exciting new talents, while England appear to be looking to the least creative of the good sides in the country for their midfield (10 – 13 all Sarries!). Chris Robshaw captains the team, and he’s a good player, but looks a bit knackered and will be out of position on the openside.


Verdict: We’re going for Scotland because we just can’t see how England will be able to deliver the gameplan they’re talking about.  Lancaster says they’re looking to play at a high tempo, but high tempo requires quick ball, and just who is going to serve that up? The Scottish back row will be licking their chops at the lightweight trio England have served up – Scotland to shade a dour affair.

France v Italy

France will be looking to hit the ground running and have every chance of doing so.  They seem to have the right team on the pitch, something they haven’t had for some time.  Louis Picamoles keeps out Harinordoquy in what looks a position of real strength (Fulgence Ouedraogo can’t even make the 22), while Trinh-Duc is welcomed back to the starting line-up, with Beauxis a handy reserve.  All eyes will be on Clermont’s razor-sharp Wesley Fofana, who looks like a potential star of the tournament.

It should all be too much for Italy.  The Italians were poor in the World Cup, and never looked like troubling Ireland or Australia.  They just don’t travel.  Their home games, now in the Stadio Olimpico, will be worth watching and they may try to keep some of their powder dry for England’s arrival there next week.

Verdict: this one is set up for France to rack up some points; we expect them to win by a couple of scores.

Ireland v Wales

Obviously, this is the most interesting game from our perspective. Even before the Welsh squad started dropping like flies, we fancied that this was a game Ireland were targetting – the noises from the squad echo those we heard prior to England in March and Australia in October. Now, with the Welsh down several front-liners, Ireland will be confident as well as motivated.

We foresee an urgent and effective Ireland performance with some tries thrown in. Wales will play a smart game and target our weaknesses (second row in the loose and Earls’ defence at 13) but it won’t be enough. Ireland really want this one, and nearly all the squad go in brimful of confidence after the HEC group stages – stark contrast to Wales.

Verdict: We don’t think Ireland will blow Wales away early like they did to England, but they will have enough. This could be quite high-scoring – the Welsh backs are more than useful – 30-20 or something. Ireland by more than a score

Six Nations: Vive La Revolution!

Pope Benedeccie I announced his team for the opening Six Nations match and there weren’t many surprises. The 22 is picked almost entirely from the World Cup squad, with the only newbie being Peter O’Mahony taking his place on the bench. Good for Frankie’s day job anyway. Not one of those ‘promoted’ from the Wolfhounds game made the final call. Well, what else were you expecting?
This was not a selection to get the pulses racing, but, truth be told, it was never going to be. As we flagged earlier this week, Ireland’s fate this season rests more on their ability to deliver a more potent gameplan in attack than with rafts of new personnel. There were only ever four starting berths where there was uncertainty, and even that was minimal. We knew all along Earls was going to get the nod, and made our peace with this decision. There are some outraged voices out there over this selection, but with no overwhelmingly obvious choice, Earls is a good bet. Yes, his defence is a concern, no, he’s not a natural centre, but those who lament Kidney’s conservatism (count us in) can at least be consoled by the notion that it’s a choice built for attack.
Sexton and Murray starting was pretty well flagged. Great and all as ROG is playing, few expected Kidney to give him a start in this one given his age. It’s in everyone’s interests to give Sexton and Murray an extended run in the side, and hope they can provide Ireland with a stable half-back pairing for years to come. Both undoubtedly have the talent to do so. Reddan can count himself unlucky, but he has been poor on his two most recent outings.
Which bring us to … Donncha … our old friend, selected at 4.. What can we say? It’s clearly a selection based on incumbency rather than form or potential contribution to the team or building for RWC15.
We have moaned about Donncha in the past, but have still advocated his selection, based on his partnership with Paulie and a lack of viable alternatives.
Neither argument now holds water. Donnacha Ryan has usurped him at Munster, started 5 HEC games, 4 alongside Paulie, in a campaign where Munster have gone 100% and earned a home quarter-final. Dan Tuohy started all 6 alongside the very Paulie-esque Johann Muller in a campaign where Ulster demolished Leicester and nearly turned over Clermont in Clermont. Both have earned rave reviews for their performances.
Either is a superior option than Donncha, who is more underpowered than ever, cannot pass, rarely gets across the gainline with ball in hand, and rarely prevents an opponent getting past the gainline. Ok, so he is an expert at “unseen work” (Egg and Palla wish they could trot out that line come appraisal time) and also at the choke tackle, which is clearly top of the list of priorities.
We would argue that if indeed Ireland’s game is to be remodelled around more ball-in-hand attacking, that more players comfortable with handling the ball are required: Ryan and especially Tuohy are vastly superior in this respect. Ryan is playing in the form of life, and at 28 is in or around his prime. Is he going to be 30 by the time he starts a test match?
It’s worth bearing in mind that this is a massively depleted Wales side, and Ireland should win comfortably with or without Donncha. Vexingly, the likelihood is Donncha will be picked for Paris … where he will be shredded. The man has been a loyal servant who has been a part of every triumph this team has had, but his time has gone. Paulie’s provincial partner, Ryan, should have started, with Tuohy on the bench.

Six Nations: Dr. Deccie or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Choke Tackle

Here’s a question nobody really knows the answer to: how will Ireland do in the Six Nations this year?  The bookies have us as lowly fourth favourites, but the Observer has us down as winners, and Shaun Edwards (mindgames alert!) has said we’re overwhelming favourites.  But Frankie ‘My Client!’ Sheahan’s traditional Grand Slam prediction on Against the Head was a bit half-hearted and the public at large seem fairly underwhelmed by the whole thing. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of feeling that, even with the provinces demolishing all before them, Ireland can really capitalise and win the Championship.
The truth is that this Ireland team flatters to deceive, and has done since their annus mirabilis in 2009.  Just what is this team all about?  They made matchwood of Australia’s tight forwards in the World Cup, and played at a ferocious pace against England last Spring, but looked dull and ponderous for vast swathes of 2011, never more so than when they kicked the ball over 50 times in the Millenium Stadium in losing to a poor Wales side.

To be fair to the group, the Achilles heel appears to have been identified.  It seems that in their recent get-together at Carton House, the players identified their attack with ball in hand as the weakest part of their game.  Well, duh.  In spite of Gerry’s laughable attempts on Newstalk a few weeks back to convince us that Ireland’s attack was in fact very good, the players themselves felt they had become predictable and lacked the firepower to respond with tries when their defence, which is a big strength for the team, finally leaked in the World Cup quarter-final.

Les Kiss, Jamie Heaslip and Dorce have been among those making positive noises about a new(ish) style of play, more ball-in-hand and with more depth and decoy runners in attack.  They haven’t thrown away the playbook (such as it was), all were quick to point out, but they will be adding a bit more to their play.  The flat, lateral, moribund shovelling that has characterised much of Ireland’s atack over the last 24 months will not be missed. Ireland lack cohesion and a genuine identity in their style.  At times the players themselves look muddled – how many times have we seen Jamie Heaslip, arm out to offload the ball, but no-one on hand to take it? Dorce indicated that the players came away with a much clearer idea of what the gameplan will be than ever before.  Bring it on – this is the single most important area for the team to deliver.

That’s the gameplan ticked off Deccie’s list – now, to put the best team on the field to implement it.  A good chunk of the team picks itself at this stage, so let’s get that out of the way: Healy, Best and Ross in the front row, Paulie captain, Ferris, O’Brien and Heaslip in the back row.  The back three will be Trimble, Bowe and Kearney.  That leaves a partner for Paulie, the halves and the centres, which we went through yesterday (we’re set on McFadden and Earls).

At halfback, Kidney needs to put faith in Murray and Sexton.  We’d ask, as we have done with the 13 shirt, that these two be given the championship to develop a relationship.  Sexton has been in flying form with Leinster, his place kicking flawless and his all-round game sublime.  Murray has come in for some criticism for his far-too-numerous carries and hesitancy to pass this season.  But we have a suspicion it’s under instruction, with Munster using him as a primary ball carrier; it’s an area where they’re light in the absence of Wally (it’s not Ronan or O’Mahony’s strength) and Murray is a strong in contact.  Behind the carrier-heavy Irish backrow Murray could focus on smooth delivery (he has a sweet pass), with an occasional snipe, of course. It helps that, traditionally, Deccie eschews provincial partnerships at halfback – even at Wolfhound level where Boss and Keatley faffed about with completely expected unfamiliarity.
At 4, our great friend O’Callaghan has been fairly invisible this season with Donncha Ryan stepping into his shirt with Munster.  He’s playing great stuff and deserves a test start – we’ll be disappointed if Kidney sticks with Donncha ‘Unseen Work’ O’Callaghan.  Ryan just holds off the challenge of Ulster’s intriguing Dan Tuohy.  Tuohy’s lineout work is solid, and with good carrying ability and nice hands, he’s more of a footballer than any of the other options – he’s our man to bring off the bench.  With Court, Cronin, Tuohy, Reddan and ROG taking their places on the plinth, all that remains is a reserve outside back and a backrow.  Given our centres can cover the wide channels, Dorce gets into the 22 shirt (since Luke is injured), where his experience will come in handy.

In the backrow, we are a hung jury…
Palla makes the case for Peter O’Mahony: O’Mahony deserves his chance.  He offers more versatility than Jennings or Ruddock and has had a terrific season so far.  He’s a tigerish fellow, but also a fairly rounded footballer.
And Egg for Chris Henry: Henry has had his best season yet for Ulster – he covers the entire back row and is familiar with the international setup. Henry has spent most of the season covering the openside, which is where Ireland are likely to use a replacement – Fez will slink off after 65 minutes and SOB will switch across. To be truthful, we will be happy with either.

The team selection issues are secondary this season.  It’s an exciting, cutting-edge attack that we really want to see.  If the patched-up coaching team without a dedicated attack coach can deliver it, Ireland have everything else in place – set piece, defence, personnel, to have a good Six Nations.  Victory in Paris might prove a step too far, but four wins would put Ireland right in the shake-up.  Any less and we’ll be asking questions.

Six Nations: We need to talk about Keet

Sorry, make that Respect Keet. We have got in trouble for not showing adequate respect to everyone’s favourite blond Limerickman, so Anon, if you are reading (despite promising you wouldn’t) your over-sensitive antennae might get a bit upset shortly, so look away now.

The key question for Ireland in this Six Nations is an impossible one to answer – how do you replace the irreplacable? Drico might be back in a while, but make no mistake, the hill has been browed, and it’s Operation Replacement.

We have been running our regular Thirteenwatch series for a few months now on the contenders for the sacred 13 shirt – in the very first one, we joked about how Deccie was going to play Keith Earls there no matter what. Now, after 6 rounds of HEC, we finally agree Earls is the man for the job, especially after Darren Cave’s misfortune.  The field has essentially narrowed to three: Earls, Bowe and McFadden.  None are naturals in the role, but Earls’ case is the most compelling.   McFadden has plenty to offer, but need not be excluded altogether – he should be included alongside Keet at 12.  Bowe has not played at all at centre, and is needed on the wing.  And Keet’s form is good – he threw in a howler against Castres, but the manner in which he bounced back against Northampton put him back in credit.

So Earls it is. Straightforward? No, not at all. We have some serious reservations about Respect Keet, but lets start with the positives. He has great feet, pace to burn and a serious eye for the tryline.  While he’s no BOD, not by a long shot, it’s worth dwelling for a while on what Earls will bring to the team.  A combination of McFadden and Earls would have serious gas – not something Ireland have had in midfield since D’arcy and O’Driscoll were in the flush of youth and at their peak, in the 2006 Autumn series when Ireland looked like world-beaters.  It would give defences something new to think about.  We’re not saying they’ll be better but it will offer a different kind of threat.

Now for the bad stuff.  When we see Earls, we are always reminded of the great Arrigo Sacchi’s opinion on Steven Gerrard:

“He is a great footballer, but not a great player. He lacks what I call knowing-how-to-play football.”

Earls has all the tools to be a great player for Ireland, but he just does not fully convince. The defensive errors Earls makes at 13 are worryingly consistent and similar (e.g. Leinster 2009, Fat Manu 2011). In addition, one does not see huge development in Earls game since his breakthrough season in 2009 – contrast with Bob Kearney, who has come back from injury a much more rounded player than before, and  is a much better player even than he was in 2009, the previous peak of his powers. We’re unsure if Earls will improve as a player, or whether he is getting adequate guidance in this department. Caveat: the chopping and changing positionally is a major hindrance here.

There is also the mental side of things. When Earls is not completely psychologically clued into a game, he can be desperate. On his Lions debut, his nerves were palpable 6,000 miles away, and he succumbed with his first Garryowen. Fast forward to October – he flagged in the press a few days before the Wales quarter-final that he was thinking ahead of the game at hand, missed 5 tackles out of 8, and was at fault for all 3 tries. While his enthusiasm, as evidenced by the Superstar quote, or talking about wanting to go out there and run around and have fun, is endearing, it’s also a bit concerning that a professional sportsman talks like a 10 year old. It’s a classic mental mistake – thinking about the outcome and not the process – and it’s one that is repeatedly made.

Now, breathe.

Let us say this. If Earls is going to be the man, he must play all 5 games, even though over the course of five hard games, we can more or less say he will throw in one shocker. It’s important people remember that it’s essentially his first test level start in the shirt, and it won’t always be smooth. It’s also imperative because of Earls’ unique circumstances i.e. his fragile mentality. Earls must be trusted, and it must be made clear to him in advance he is trusted – not a Deccie trait (according to Donncha’s autobiog) it must be acknowledged.

We have outlined our reservations, but from this moment on we are fully behind him.  It’s important everyone is 100% supportive of Keet at 13 – he needs it, and Ireland need it. No-one will be happier than us if he delivers in the shirt in the series.  If and when he does have a bad game – hopefully it happens early on so he can finish on a high note – he must be backed (to be fair, this is a Deccie trait). And all the better if he starts showing increasing maturity, and even some evidence of embryonic leadership qualities – a totem is bowing out, and a man of Earls talent would be a proud successor …. if he can marshall it effectively. Fingers and toes crossed…

Six Nations: Re-Inventing the Wheel

Part Three in our pre-Six Nations series looks at the ‘fresh start’ factor. National teams these days tend to think in four year RWC cycles, and build towards a planned crescendo at the next RWC. Southern Hemisphere teams, however, do it better than Northern ones – NZ last year and SA in 2007 managed to time their peaks just about right, Australia under Robbie Deans are targeting 2015, but only France of the NH sides successfully implemented a four year build plan – and it didn’t exactly run smoothly at all times.

So how are each of the countries viewing this year’s tournament? Will there be caps scattered like confetti, or more substitute appearances from the Leo Cullens of this world? We look at each country and rate on the Deccie Revolution scale, where 5 is never changing your selection no matter what the external circumstances and 1 is dart-throwing at a list of names i.e. Lievremont circa 2008.

France:

There is a revolution Jim, but not as we know it. The French players are largely the same, with some notable exceptions such as Yoann Maestri and Wesley Fofana, who can expect to go straight into the first XV, but it’s the new coaching ticket which gives this French team a new broom. Lievremont and his worrying moustache are gone, and Philip “Sale won the Premiership once” Saint-Andre is in charge, despite being a notably poorer candidate than Fabien Galthie. The priority is to stabilise the structure rather than change personnel – this group of players have very high currency in France, and it wouldn’t do PSA much good to start ditching them willy-nilly. This will be about re-establishing the relationship between management and players, media and fans.
Deccie Revolution Rating:

England:

The ongoing civil war between the clubs, the players, the RFU, the press and everyone else is immensely damaging to English rugby. The RWC preparation was poor, and the team were let down by senior players. Accordingly the management (Johnno) and some senior players have been cut loose. Stuart Lancaster is promising a back to basics approach, and some more enterprising rugby. There were quite a few new faces in the squad, and one can reasonably expect a new spine, and mentality, to be put in place. Lancaster may or may not be around to see it through, but it’s Year Zero for England right now.
Deccie Revolution Rating:

Ireland:

It’s like Bunker Hill in 1776 all over again in Camp Ireland – Deccie has jettisoned all the 30-something hangers on and brought in the youngsters who have been leaving their stamp all over this seasons HEC. Expect a fresh vision from the Ireland coaching staff this year – proven international attack experts have been brought in to work on Ireland’s tired and predictable attacking “gameplan”, and the new faces will ensure that the sense of urgency that we typically save for one game a series will become a constant. A new dawn.

Sorry, we were daydreaming there…
Deccie Revolution Rating:

Wales:

It’s a hugely different Welsh squad from the one we saw in last seasons Six Nations, but this is primarily because Gatty and Co decided to pass the baton to the generation of Faletau, Warburton, Priestland and North before the RWC. This revolution is in its early stages – the Grand Slam heroes of 2008 are being phased out and a new generation being phased in. Gatty made a smart move back in August – if the geriatricos had underperformed in NZ, there would be lots of changes; now he need only be incremental. They won the Slam at this stage of the last cycle, and Gatty will be feeling bullish about delivering another. Hey, what’s new?
Deccie Revolution Rating:

Scotland:

Robbo is by nature an evolution not revolution man, but there is a natural change coming. Pack hardman Nathan Hines and boring boot merchant Chris Paterson have gone, and the (mostly) incumbent 10 of the last while, Dan Parks, will not be around for too much longer. Some of the Embra lads, Weir and Jones, will come straight in, as will HupHup Tim Visher by June. Robbo is an underrated coach, and we have a suspicion he will manage incremental change (3 to 4 new faces) each year, and build towards 2015 with something of a sure hand on the tiller

Deccie Revolution Rating:

Italy:

Rather like France, the revololpution is in the coaching ticket. Jacques Brunel, fresh from leading Perpignan to a first Bouclier in forever, arrives to take the reins from Nick Mallett. Italy have been improving year on year, but the big breakthrough of 2 wins not over Scotland has yet to happen. They came close last year, beating France and being a front-line kicker away from beating Ireland, but they are still stuck at the glass ceiling. The personnel are virtually the same, and Brunel will be hoping Treviso’s promotion from Whipping Boys to Awkward Arthurs translates to the international level.
Deccie Revolution Rating:

Six Nation Preview: The Joy of HECs

Part 2 of our Six Nations preview looks at what the HEC has thrown up, and how this might have a bearing on the international sphere.
It’s been an extremely positive tournament for both Scotland and Ireland. Scotland have their first quarter-finalist in 8 years and this has got to be good news for Robbo. For a start, he will have some players on the field who know what it takes to win close games, a facet of performance in which Scotland fell notably short in the RWC. True, Edinburgh weren’t exactly in the Pool of Death, but you still need to beat the teams in front of you – 2 away wins laced with cojones are positive signs, as is the try count – 17 – more than Scotland have managed in the last four Six Nations put together. In addition, the team is largely Scottish, and is well-marshalled by Greg Laidlaw at 10 – a position where Scotland have failed to find consistent leadership of late.
Ireland, in turn, have an unprecedented 3 quarter-finalists, with one guaranteed semi-finalist and the press full of breathless talk of a Munster-Leinster final. It’s all positive then, right? Possibly not. The contrast between and confused bumbling in the green shirt and the sure-footed confidence in the blue/white/red shirt has grown starker and starker since 2009, and, despite a decent RWC, it’s not clear anything is changed. Ulster are marshalled by the accents of Bloemfontein as much as Belfast, and Munster and Leinster operate to disparate gameplans. Talk is emerging of a new style and clearer attacking strategy, and it would want to, because Ireland frequently look an uneasy, confused hybrid of the two. The squad announcement was a flat affair, and there’s been little sense among the rugby public that Ireland can capitalise on the provinces’ dominance.

For England and Wales, the HEC did not augur well. England’s RWC squad was backboned by players from Leicester, Northampton and Bath (16 out of 30 including Thomas the Tank Engine, drafted in for Ted Sheridan). All 3 suffered merciless and record-breaking beatings at the hands of Irish provinces this year, which has given rise to hilarious hand-wringing in Blighty. Ackford thinks the solution is more English teams (no, really), Barnesy has started touting the Pro12 as the model, and Cockerill has pointed his pudgy fingers at the salary cap, referees, injuries, the heavy Christmas programme, the Catholic Church, Dick Cheney and the euro.
All that aside, what looked like a new-ish broom swept in by Stuart Lancaster has already turned into a damage limitation exercise – the HEC has left English rugby’s confidence dented, and it needs to find its pride again. Even Harlequins have stumbled. Confidence will likely stay dented right up until Chris Ashton
belly-flops his way to 3 tries against Italy, when they will be prospective world champions again.
The Welsh had exactly the opposite problem after NZ – how to temper expectations (not their strongest suit, it must be said). However, the regions have done a pretty good job for Gatty and co. The Scarlets produced a signature performance in thumping the Sinners in Franklin’s Gardens, but failed to follow through, losing 3 of their last 4 games in circumstances where a team with belief and a pack would have won at least 2 of them. NKOTB Rhys Priestland has been de-scoped from the 10 slot in favour of bearded has-been Stephen Jones and the marvellous young backs (Scott and Liam Williams, JJV Davies, George North) have been successfully neutered.
The Hairsprays didn’t expect to capitulate so rankly in Biarritz on the last weekend, although double losses to Sarries and a draw with Treviso had snookered them before the off. Cardiff qualified, but only as a runner-up, and made extremely heavy weather of an easy pool. Anything less than a severe thumping at the hands of Leinster in April would be considered progress after a measly 9 tries in 6 games – against 2 sides determined to throw the ball around like confetti (Edinburgh and Racing Metro) and 1 of the worst sides in the HEC (London Samoa). It looks like positive momentum lost, but then again, the Welsh national side has never fed off the regions. They’re a curious side whose performance can go any which way, depending largely on what mood they’re in. It might not matter that much.
For France and Italy, it was all a bit … meh. Of the 6 French sides, only 3 bothered – Toulouse (group winners), Clermont (group winners) and Biarritz (narrowly pipped for a knockout place, and began looking more menacing after the Harinodoquy-Yachvili-Traille spine was bedded back in for the later games). The other 3 sides used the tournament for practice – either backline moves (Racing Metro) or scrummaging (Castres, Montpellier). The Top 14 will always be a priority for French sides (despite their lack of connection with their fan bases, Gerry), and HEC success is a pleasant side-dish in most cases. It’s hard to know what impact this all will have on the national side – not much we suspect.
The Italian sides were a curates egg. The positives came from Treviso’s home form and their willingness to play a more rounded brand of rugby – no longer can you go there and rely upon your scrum breaking even and your kicker to kick 80% in order to win. On the flip side of that, Aironi regressed from last year. No-one expected miracles, but they beat Biarritz last season and were generally niggly at home. This time around, they got fed an eighty-burger (thank you Demented Mole) by the Clermont reserves, and the only success, such as it was, was denying Leicester a bonus point in the Zafanella. One hopes that Italy will take more from Treviso’s performances, and make it a proper Six Nations.

French need to learn Culture and Passion From Irish

Gerry Thornley’s been warming to his theme of IRFU-bashing lately – he’s been awoken from his autopilot by the new NIE laws and is using his weekly column as a platform from which to berate the [Insert number Here] Old Farts.  Which we approve.  And, of course, he’s only too delighted to see three Irish provinces in the HEC quarter finals.  After all, who isn’t?

But the final paragraph in today’s piece set off the alarm bells:

But, for all its wealth, foreign imports and benefactors, the Top 14 remains, a la the Premier League in England, something of a circus act which works against its national team. Nor do they have the same sense of culture and identity between fans and players who truly represent their regions.
What’s that Gerry?  The French club sides don’t have a sense of culture and identity between fans and players?  Really?  Tell that to the Clermont Auvergne fans whose ground is the most intimidating in Europe, and make their mark on every city to which they travel.  Or the Toulousains who pour into the streets donned in rouge-et-noir whenever they land silverware.  Anyone who was there two years ago for the Leinster-Clermont quarter final will regard it as the greatest atmosphere ever to grace the RDS.

There’s no need to go on, because we all know this.  We’ve all seen the French support, and we all know how much the fans value the Bouclier, and how attached they are to their club teams.  The idea that Perpignan could learn a thing or two from the Irish pishun is ludicrous.  Maybe we could teach them to cook, make wine and dress stylishly while we’re at it? 

We’re entitled to be pleased with the state of Irish rugby, but this sort of smugness has no place.  The Bouclier de Brennus has been contested since 1892, quickly took on the character of village against village, providing an outlet for the denizens of Albi, Dax, Carcassonne and Aix similar to that which soccer provides in the north of England. Domestic Fench rugby has a tribal ferocity to this day.

Perhaps Gerry should watch the video of Pere Harinordoquy taking to the pitch to fight some Bayonnais forwards in the recently contested Basque derby.  Speaking of which, the bi-annual match-up between Bayonne and Biarritz is considered the single most intense rivalry in European rugger. It’s a longstanding one too – while we can’t be entirely sure, we think it might even pre-date the Heineken Cup semi-final in 2006.

Six Nations: Lions Coach Wanted. Apply Within.

We’ve had the World Cup, we’ve had the group stages of the Heineken Cup, heck we’ve even had some Rabodirect Pro12 League Mega Sized Action, but now all those terribly nouveau tournaments move aside, and the Grand Olde Dame of world rugby, The Six Nations, looms into view.  The annual event should bring the usual array of dashed hopes, stagnant rugby, corporate days out, banal press conferences, inter-provincial blame-gaming and George Hook, but y’know, we can’t help but get excited about it.  We’re the sort that dares to get his hopes up.

This year, we are eschewing the usual “England will be hard to beat and Ireland can’t score tries”-type country-by-country preview for something a bit more thematic. We will be previewing this year’s tournament by asking a series of questions:
  • What are the management teams doing? And why are they all wearing their ‘Power of Four’ wristbands
  • How will the recently-finished HEC group stages impacted the Six Nations?
  • Post RWC11-rebuilding – who is doing what and how?
  • A, ahem, deeper dive on Ireland – was all the pedestrian back play down to Gaffney??
  • Actual predictions where we put our neck on the line. Like when we confidently predicted Biarritz would make the HEC knock-out stages and the Liginds would struggle.

In the first, we run the rule over the coaches overseeing the whole shambles.  Here goes nothing.

One curious side issue of this year’s Six Nations is that the Lions administrators have effectively said that the manager of the 2013 Australia tour will be one of Warren ‘Wazza’ Gatland, Declan ‘Deccie’ Kidney and Andy ‘Andy Robinson’ Robinson, with a backstop of St. Ian McGeechan if each of those three are deemed suitably hopeless.  They haven’t ruled out anyone else (in the whole world) but they would prefer the coach to be affiliated to one of the home unions, with the anointed one required to take a year out to dedicate himself to the role (those Premiership games won’t watch themselves, and somebody has to mail out those Power of Four wristbands).

It makes for an intriguing competition within a competition, even if it’s not quite a straight shootout based on final placings.  We can’t but see Wazza as being firmly in poll position.  He’s already been on a successful tour, as an important presence in 2009, he’s a progressive selector, and the way he tactically outwitted Deccie in the World Cup is fresh in the memory.  He’d also provide good copy with his pre-match bluster, and as a Kiwi, is au fait with dishing it out to the Aussies.  This Six Nations we can expect him to be in bullish mood.  He’s already very proud of himself for picking 18 year old speedster Harry Robinson, and his currency has rarely been higher.  We’re not sold on the whole Wales Are The World’s Greatest thing, but a halfway decent Six Nations and the gig should be his.

The image of Andy Robinson punching walls in the Lions’ technical box seems a bit far fetched, and we can’t quite see it.  Robinson has done a decent job with Scotland, but they still haven’t made that breakthrough that they keep threatening, and have a tendency to freeze on the big occasion.  Even if Scotland do brilliantly, we just can’t see him as Lions head coach.

We have to admit to hoping against all hope that Deccie gets the call, if only for moments like this…

Sky Hype Interviewer:  ‘Well Declan, congratulations on a historic Lions win.  What did you make of the incredible Oooooooooohhh 17-tackle, 6 lineout-takes, 60m carrying performance by Oooooooohhh Courtney Lawes?’


Deccie: ‘Courtney went well, but maybe if we’d gone with Donncha we would have won by more points.  Sure, aren’t we blessed to have two such great fellas.’

The Aussies wouldn’t know what to do with him.

Away from the Lions circus, Stuart Lancaster is in something approaching a win-win situation.  England are at such a low ebb that the only way really is up.  Nobody’s expecting too much, and if they play a fairly watchable brand of rugby the public will be happy, regardless of results.  Even if England get the wooden spoon, he can say he has given the next generation their head.

France are under new stewardship, with Philipe Saint-Andre stepping into the breach.  He’s picked a strong squad, and it seems he wants to break with the Mad Lievremont years.  Such is the depth of talent in the French squad, it looks like even a halfway decent coach should be able to coerce them into playing some decent stuff.  Saint-Andre’s CV isn’t that impressive (his Toulon side finished ninth in the Top 14 last year) but some consistent selection and a clear gameplan would be half the battle.

Finally, Italy are also under a new coach, with former Perpignan man Jacques Brunel taking up where Nick Mallett left off.  Mallett was popular and respected, so Brunel won’t want to rock the boat too much.  Keeping Italy hard to beat while gradually broadening their game will be the order of the day – and that should have been made easier by the Pro12 sides beginning to throw the ball around a bit, and some talented youngsters like Benvenuti and Semenzato.

 

Weeks Out… Round Two

That’s your lot for Round One, now the whole tournament goes on hiatus for a couple of months and we reconvene on drier tracks in the April.  Everyone take a deep breath.  As Group stages go, this was up there with the best of them.  Every week seemed to throw up something bizarre.  Indeed, the exact line-up went down to the very last phase.  With Cardiff having a lineout in the Racing 22, but then turning over and Racing almost breaking out for a try of their own, three possible outcomes were in play.  Try for Cardiff, and Cardiff were home to Clermont; try for Racing and Biarritz were playing Munster; no try (as it turned out) and Cardiff were playing Leinster.  Phew.  Here’s our final Heineken Cup Good Week/Bad Week.

Good Week
Frankie goes to Hollywood
It was a good weekend for Frankie. Firstly, in Galway on Friday night, he (astonishingly) wasn’t the worst commentator in view – his lead (whose name we can’t recall) spent the first 79 minutes patronizing Connacht, patting them on the head and thanking them for giving Quins a tough game – the realization that they had won came late in the day, and Frankie crowed like only he can. Then, on Sunday, his big prediction came true. Last Wednesday, he had anointed Peter O’Majesty the HEC Player of the Group Stages in his blog. Oh, how we scoffed, especially since Frankie himself had awarded one of the MOTM’s he referred to. We are big POM fans, but we didn’t agree with the hyperbole. Cue Sunday, and a breath-takingly good performance from the man himself and, while we don’t want to declare him the greatest player in world rugby just yet,  we’re pretty sure he looks the real deal. Frankie the sooth-sayer, we salute you! Wait, stop press, what’s this? Surely not a conflict of interest?
Who said Round Six was predictable?
One of the best (and worst) games of the group stages was in the Sportsground on Friday – a memorable victory for Connacht, and confirmation the Quins bubble has well and truly burst. Despite of the nail-biting and desperate attempts of both teams to lose, the real story on Friday was Gloucester beating 4-times winners Toulouse. Although they have a really gassy back 3, Gloucester are an average Premiership team. Toulouse , despite giving away a ridiculous early try, eased 17-7 in front. But that only inspired Gloucester to cut loose, and the Cherry and Whites ended up winning by 10 points. Make no mistake, this was a massive win – Toulouse are top of the Top 14 and looking menacing. Given Connacht and then Embra ensured Toulouse are not only through, but have a benign route to the semis, this result may be lost in the mists a little, but try telling that to Glaws.
On the Seventh Day, God created Fez
The sense of bathos surrounding Ulster’s quarter-final is a bit strange. I mean, they produced the best Irish performance yet in the Marcel Michelin – eschewing containment for an aggressive and fearless drive to win. Clermont’s initial superiority melted away, and only the impact of the Clermont bench, some uncharacteristic inaccuracy from Pienaar and a lack of true ruthlessness let them down. A win would have, incredibly, meant 3 home quarter-finals for Irish teams (although they would have played Toulouse). Instead, Ulster now await the bear-pit of Thomond Park, and have to address the toughest question of them all: do they have The Mental to win big games away from home? One fears it may be 2013 before we learn the answer, and they need only ask Northampton Saints about how much fun the glass ceiling can be if they don’t answer them correctly.

Bad Week


The Aviva Premiership Moaning Competition


It’s been a poor season for the Premiership teams, and expect a lot of headscratching (and even more carping) over the next week or so.  The Torygraph has already nailed its colours to the mast and wants to see a more meritocratic qualification system.  Paul Ackford has a right old whinge, but never offers any explanation explain why, Sarries aside, the Premiership teams have been so poor this year – Leicester got thrashed in Belfast, Bath in Dublin and Quins blew up when the pressure came on. Northampton Saints epitomised the malaise, with just two wins out of six, and showed a surprising lack of savvy.  They couldn’t see out a potentially seismic win in Munster, and on Saturday, couldn’t stay in the game when they were under the kosh.  Their team is breaking up this summer, and last season looks like their peak, rather than a springboard for success.


Leinster, Cardiff, Toulouse and Edinburgh


All are in the quarter-finals, but all pitted in the away half of the semi-final draw.  It remains the single biggest flaw in the quirky tournament – the difference between getting Toulouse, say, or Clermont home or away is a masive swing, and it’s all decided on pot luck.  This year, though, it mightn’t be as big an advantage as it looks.  Ulster have never played in the Palindrome, and Munster are zero from two there.  It’s a bigger advantage for Leinster to play there than either of the other Irish provinces, but that won’t be happening this year.  Sarries enjoy their trips to Wem-ber-ley, but it’s no fortress – Leinster have already gone there and won, without BOD.  Meanwhile, we’ve no record of Clermont playing in St. Etienne or Lyon.


Declan Kidney


Uncle Deccie will inherit the happiest 52-man squad in Irish history.  Hooray!  A record three provinces in the HEC knockouts, and Connacht finally ending their losing streak.  Munster finally found a cutting edge, Jamie Heaslip is at his marauding best, and Ulster have become men.  But with that comes heightened expectations.  Deccie will have to work extra-hard to turn this group of in-form players into the lateral-attacking, penalty-condecing, gameplan-confused, poorly selected side we’re used to seeing.  The real hard work begins now.