Cultural Learnings from the Pro12

Lucky Generals

Ulster had a neat win over Connacht on Friday night, built largely off their imposing pack – the Westerners scrum was demolished and the breakdown was owned by the Ulstermen. Still, they only scored three tries, and rarely managed to get their silky backs on the ball in the Connacht 22. For all their power, they still lack some fluidity, which is a mild concern when bonus points are so important in the HEC and Castres at home is such a clear candidate for one. Paul Marshall and Paddy Jackson both had decent games, but neither grabbed it by the scruff of the neck to really capitalise on their pack’s dominance – Ulster look in need of a general in the halfbacks. Of course, Ruan Pienaar will be back, but he is surely going to be rested for the Castres game, and probably the Glasgae one too. Fez and Chris Henry getting up to full power will help too, with setting targets and linking play respectively. Let’s not worry just yet, but monstrous packs without domineering halves is not a recipe for silverware (see: Clermont, Northampton).

He Did the Mash.  He Did the Monster Mash

As for Nick Williams, the monster-man keeps eating up the yardage.  If he can stay on this level, Ulster have got themselves the signing of the year.  More astute observers than ourselves pointed out we were too dismissive of him in our pre-season analysis.  The only question is: can he sustain it?  We’re not eating humble pie just yet but we’ve the oven at 180 and we’re rolling out the pastry.

HEC Build-up

We’ll be starting our HEC previews this week, but how did the provinces opponents do this week? Exeter will go to the RDS with a pep in their step after a bonus point 42-28 win over Premiership champions Quins. Connacht’s opponents Zebre lost (again), this time at home to the Ospreys – they have yet to win a game in their new incarnation, but there is no doubt they will be targeting Connacht. Result of the week in France was Castres win over Clermont – but the perennial HEC bunnies were at home and playing domestically – lets see how many of that XV line up in Ravers on Friday night. Fellow bosh-merchants, and Ligind hosts Racing Metro lost at home to best-of-the-rest Montpellier on Saturday – they’ll be looking to grind Munster into the dirt up front, and tot up points in 3s.

Referee Rant

We hate to come over all Gerry, but the standard of refereeing the 2 inter-pros left a lot to be desired – first uber-pedant Clancy on Friday night, then some laughable ineptitude from the Aviva officials on Saturday. Two incidents in particular rankled:

  • Just prior to Ulster’s penalty try, Clancy binned Dave Gannon for collapsing a maul. Ulster motored over in the next phase (roughly concurrent to Clancy blowing the whistle, but before Connacht had stopped playing), so had he played advantage they would have scored. The penalty try rule says this: “A penalty try is awarded if a try would probably have been scored but for foul play by the defending team.” – given that the probability of Ulster scoring a try was 100% (they did get over), why didn’t Clancy give one? They (inevitably) got one a few phases later, but that is not the point,
  • Conor Murray sniped round the side of a pile of forwards and dotted down effortlessly right under the nose of the touchjudge. Literally, right under his nose. So why did he need to go upstairs? It’s bad enough when pushover tries don’t get given because the referee abdicates responsibility to a man who simply cannot see a grounding, but sending such obvious incidents upstairs is just incompetent – make the decisions you get paid for, guys.

Note: the Pro12 still operates under the old rules, so the ref could not have gone upstairs for the later Laulala no-try – it would probably the wrong call, but that’s just plain old bad call as opposed to megalomania/incompetence.

[Aside: to the Premiership] Ooooooooooooooooohhh

After the Ulster game on Friday night, we switched to Sky to watch the last 20 minutes of Sale-Leicester. Holy Lord, how bad are the Sharks? And what is Richie Grey doing there? The standard of rugby was terrible, and we saw pretty much every type of unforced error from the Northerners in an embarrassingly short spell. Leicester dealt with them with ease, and will be pleased to have such an easy lead-in to another shocker of a HEC pool.

McFadden and Earls – Ireland’s next centre partnership?

Saturday night’s entertaining derby match was enlivened by two strong performances from Ireland’s in-waiting centre partnership.  McFadden had perhaps his best game for Leinster, looking a more rounded player than ever before.  We all know he’s a dervish in contact and quick once he gets going, but his distribution looked a notch up from its usual fair-to-middling standard.  He’s likely to be shifted to the wing next week, given Leinster’s injury crisis in the outside back division and the impending return of Gordon D’arcy, but this showing at 12 will have been noted by his coaches.

In Paul O’Connell’s absence, Keith Earls has become Munster’s best player.  Always a lethal runner, he has added excellent passing to his reportoire and now looks at home in the 13 channel.  Munster’s best chance of progressing from the pool is to try and get him and Simon Zebo on the ball as often as they can.  To be fair, it looks like that’s how Penney has them set up, albeit with a kicking fly-half.  Which bring us along to…

Penney’s Out Half Conundrum

For the second week in a row, Munster looked more threatening once Rog was replaced by Ian Keatley.  Keatley’s the man in form and looks more geared to play the Penney way, playing as he does, flat on the gainline.  Penney should have started him against Leinster.  If he is to pit Keatley into action from the start in next week’s increasingly significant looking game against Racing Metro, he does so without any previous exposure to high intensity rugby.  This was the ideal opportunity to give him the chance to audition for the shirt.  We expect ROG to line out against Racing, the old head for the sleeves-rolled-up away assignment.  Keatley’s first Heiny Cup start could come the following week, in the more forgiving environs of a home game against Edinburgh.

Transition Time

After Munster’s excellent start to the Pro12, some of our more excitable followers posited that the transition had happened in Rob Penney’s two-week pre-season. Sadly, that has been exposed for the wishful thinking it was. With only Paul O’Connell to return (who is admittedly huge, but not a miracle worker), their pack is looking unfit for the purpose of getting their electric backs on the ball.

Dave Kilcoyne might be able to carry, but in the tight he is a wet blanket. Peter O’Mahony simply does not yet have the ball-carrying skills for an 8, and (as we suggested it would) the hype of last year has done him a disservice – a hard year’s work nailing down a shirt (probably 6) and learning his trade is required. Donnacha Ryan is an able worker, but no sort of replacement for POC – he hasn’t yet got to the stage where he can drag a team on his own will. There is a lot of work to be done, and its a multi-year job.  They’re on the right track for sure, but patience is still the order of the day.

Chug! Chug! Chug!

In acknowledgement of the first big Munster game in which Rog isn’t nailed on first choice since the days before John Langford and Mick Galwey’s tears could be used as fuel for the journey in the beaten up Peugeot 206 from Limerick to Pau via the Hook of Holland ferry and the Brenner pass for a meaningless HEC defeat, we have compiled a fun drinking game.

The units involved are up to you, be they shots, fingers, pints, hands, whatever – we’ll give you points, you decide how much to imbibe.

Of course, Rob Penney might go with the wily old master for Saturday, in which case we’ll look mildly silly, but if he does, you can merely use this later in the season when Keatley does get the nod – and he will, make no mistake – or for Ireland games when ROG watches while Sexton struggles to employ Kidney’s workaday tactics in green.  Just sub Sexton for Keatley where appropriate.

Here’s the rules:

  • Camera catches Ronan looking glum on the bench – 1 point
  • Camera catches Ronan smiling and laughing on the bench – 2 points
  • Ian Keatley drops a goal – 1 point
  • Ian Keatley drops a goal after 41 extraordinarily permissive phases – 5 points
  • Donal Lenihan says that Keatley is playing in the wrong areas of the pitch in commentary – 2 points
  • Frankie says in the build-up that he hopes Keatley doesn’t try to play too much rugby – 3 points
  • Whiff of Cordite’s troll, foaming at the mouth, points out in a comment in this piece that Keatley went to Belvo and doesn’t even know the fourth verse of Stand Up and Fight – 2 points
  • Keatley re-introduces the 6 arse-bounces technique, inducing spittle and fury from Rog on the bench – 2 points
  • Loud cheer from the Munster crowd as Rog gets up to warm up after 60 minutes – 1 point
  • Loud cheer from the Munster crowd as Rog gets up to warm up after 20 minutes – 2 points
  • Loud cheer from the Munster crowd as Rog gets up to warm up after 1 minute – 3 points
  • Pippo Contepomi and Rodrigo Roncero spotted in the crowd lending support to their old mate Ronan – 10 points
  • George Hook says something positive about the match, Ian Keatley, Leinster, Munster or Johnny Sexton – whatever you’re drinking, do something like this:

All joking aside, it’s potentially a watershed day in Irish rugby – the man who, along with Paul O’Connell and Brian O’Driscoll has done more to advance Irish rugby over the last decade than anyone. If this does mark the beginning of the end, note the day in the calendar – it’s the end of a momentous era – our Rog tribute if and when he calls it a day will be gushing.

Exit Stage West

Last night Brendan Fanning broke the news that Eric Elwood is to leave Connacht at the end of the season.  Hugely passionate about the province, managing which must be one of the most thankless jobs in rugby, it appears that the onerous task is taking its toll on him.  Fanning’s article mentioned a tendency to take defeats badly, while Thornley today alluded to him giving almost too much of himself to the role.  The poor fella is exhausted it seems.

Elwood has come to be seen as Mr. Connacht, the personification of modern Connacht rugby, having spent most of the last 16 years either playing for them or on the coaching team in some capacity.  It is in his two-and-a-bit years as head coach, however, that he’s arguably had the biggest impact.  He’s to be commended for his unwillingness to accept the sorry lot with which the IRFU would be happy to lumber the province – the shrewd acquisition of Dan Parks is testimiony to his hard work.  Two years ago such a signing would have been impossible.

He’s also been part of a drive to bring fans through the gates of the Sportsground, presiding over a huge upsurge in season ticket sales, from the low-hundreds to over three thousand.  It’s fine work when you consider the package on offer: watching some fairly stodgy rugby on a dog track, usually in horizontal rain.

On the pitch, he’s improved matters too.  Connacht finished eighth in the league last season and participated in their first Heineken Cup.  They’ve had their ups and downs, and looked to have started this season poorly, but sparked emphatically into life on Friday night with a 34-6 trouncing of Leinster.  Indeed, with Parks expertly piloting the ship and the entire three-quarter line outstanding, it was a highwatermark for Connacht, both in terms of result and the calibre of rugby played.

It’s going to be a tough act to follow.  We generally have little time for those who question whether coaches ‘buy into the [insert region/club/Munster here] ethos’ or understand the [region/club/Munster] zeitgeist’, but in the case of Connacht it is important the incoming coach understands what Connacht rugby is all about, and how steep a challenge it is to coach them.  For certain, nobody had a better grasp of that than Elwood, and an appointment with someone who has or had links with Connacht is likely.

So who are the contenders?

Dan Parks: Connacht is be an ideal role for a young coach to cut his teeth, and the Australian strikes us as the type who might just be interested in kicking off a career here. Whatever you think of Parks 0.5-dimensional play in a Scotland shirt, there is no denying his is a very high class Pro12 player, and has made the most (indeed, far more than anyone expected when he came on to the scene) of his talent. He may just relish the chance, and by going to Connacht in the first place, has already demonstrated his suitability, personality-wise.  Will be on the coaching team in some capacity.

Axel Foley: Foley was widely-tipped to get the Munster job after making such a big impact on the pack last season, but had to settle for a passenger seat in the Penney Revolution. It’s odds-on he will be in the mixer for the head coach job in Munster once Penney departs, but if he would prefer to cut his teeth in a head coaching role somewhere else, then come back, Connacht would be ideal. It’s worth noting, however, that this didn’t work for Mick Bradley, who was overlooked when Deccie went to D4.

Eddie O’Sullivan: One more experienced name that instantly springs to mind is Eddie.  He’s coached there before and presumably has a good knowledge of the province.  For all his baggage, O’Sullivan remains a technically outstanding coach, and it would be a fallacy if his vast knowledge was left to decay outside of Irish rugby. There is no doubt he will have the hunger to repair his reputation after festering/stewing for 4 years. His USA! USA! USA! team didn’t disgrace themselves in RWC11, and indeed, it was felt Eddie scored something of a tactical coup over Deccie when they met Ireland.

Bernard Jackman: Berch is currently coaching at Grenoble in France, and they are making a pretty decent stab at their first Top14 season in a while – sitting pretty in 6th, ahead of such bosh merchants luminaries as Racing Metro, Castres and Perpignan. However, Berch was less than gushing about his time in Connacht in his book, and perhaps some bridges may still be smouldering. If some hugs can be engineered, it’s a possibility.

Deccie Kidney: Deccie will be out of work in June, and will presumably be anxious to renew his relationship with Connacht after studiously ignoring anything Western for the last four years. Perhaps he would welcome a move back to the club game, but we’re fairly certain the facilities at Buccanears don’t measure up to Carton House.

Warren Gatland: What better way to move on to a new challenge after a Lions victory in Oz? Gatty got his coaching start in the West, and has achieved all he can with Wales (and indeed in the Northern Hemisphere) – the combative Kiwi would love to be in a position where potshots at the IRFU are not only smiled upon, but positively encouraged. Let’s hope he doesn’t get too down on Frank Murphy for being unable to measure up to Mike Phillips.

Wayne Smith: Gerry touted Wayne Smith, one of the best coachs in the world, as the ideal candidate to take over at Munster, spend two years keeping the ship afloat, then wrap it up and hand it over to Axel. Presumably he could fulfil the same role as a conduit for John Muldoon, another Elwood-esque personification of Connacht rugby. The question of why a massive name would fly 10,000km to be a caretaker was never addressed before, so let’s not address it here.

Stop Press: Paul O’Connell and Rob Kearney Really Important

Is it time to start getting worried about Leinster?  They’re three from five in the Pro12, which doesn’t sound all that bad, but the performance levels have been poor.  Friday night saw them lose five tries in Galway, and truth be told, they made a Connacht team which hasn’t started the season especially well look like world beaters (as only Leinster can).  It’s their second shellacking on the road after an opening day hammering in Llanelli.  In their other away match, with a strong line-up against Treviso, they were decidedly lucky to get out of jail with a late, long range drop goal by Johnny Sexton.

It’s eerily reminiscent of Schmidt’s first season in charge. Leinster have been leaky in defence, losing 18 tries in five matches.  That’s the worst in the league, three more than Zebre.  In attack they’ve played in fits and starts, and have been prone to throwing the ball forward with great regularity and they’ve been powder-puff in contact.

Leinster fans won’t be panicking just yet, because they remember what happened two years ago, when the team seemed to click into gear once the season proper got under way.  But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll happen the same way again.  In Schmidt’s first season, many were happy to put the upswing in fortunes to a sudden getting-the-hang of what Schmidt wanted them to do.  This was true, but the real reason was that they got their best players back.  Leinster’s season was transformed the moment Sexton and Reddan entered the pitch as substitutes against Munster, instantly picking up the tempo and securing a match-winning try for Brian O’Driscoll.

The concern this year is the lengthy injury list.  Sean O’Brien, Rhys Ruddock, David Kearney, Eoin O’Malley, Dom Ryan and Luke Fitzgerald are all long term casualties and Gordon D’arcy and Rob Kearney left the field of play on Friday, while Richardt Strauss continues to recover from his head injury picked up against Treviso.  Both Isaac Boss and Eoin Reddan are also missing.

Leinster’s back three looks particularly stretched, and if any of Kearney, D’arcy and Reddan were to be ruled out this weekend, it could leave Leinster badly exposed in a couple of positions.  Fionn Carr up against Doug Howlett and George North?  No thanks.  Rob Kearney would be an especially grievous loss, as he is the only big back Leinster have and the back-line would be pint-sized without him.  And the rumour mill on Leinsterfans has shifted into gear, and it’s not good news…

Meanwhile, in the red corner, some of the feel-good feeling associated with Rob Penney’s positive start was knocked out of them this weekend.  Once again, Ospreys laid bare full scale of the job in hand.  They bullied Munster out of the game (as an aside, how good is this Jason Tipuric fellow?).  While Munster’s work with the ball is much improved, the game underlined our one overriding concern about them – a lack of heft in the pack.  The sight of their maul being shunted backwards at a rate of knots will have been chastening for fans of a team which has long prided itself as being expert proponents of this attacking weapon.  The scrum was no better and served as an important reminder that anytime you hear a tighthead prop described as being ‘good in the loose’ you should be very suspicious of him (cf. Tony Buckley).  While Archer can truck the ball up for good yardage, it’s all for nought if he cannot stabilise the scrum.

Removing Archer from their team is therefore necessary, but that only compounds another problem – a lack of ball carriers.  With James Coughlan out injured, who is going to make the hard yards?

It was their second beating of the season, and as well as they played for much of the game against Ulster in their other defeat, there was an uncomfortable reality about elements of proceedings: after the first 20 minutes, Munster barely touched the ball (when they did, it was admittedly very incisive). As Gerry is prone to saying, they were living off scraps.

The trip to a bruising (if hardly inspiring) Racing Metro team looks a lot more difficult after saturday, although Racing have problems of their own.  Donnacha Ryan and POM made their comebacks from the bench this weekend, and are fine and important players, but neither have shown themselves capable of bending a match to their will.  It all serves to underline the vast importance of Paul O’Connell.  It’s been obvious for eons to anyone with half a brain that O’Connell is the key man in red, and without him, it’s genuinely difficult to see how they can beat the best teams.

There, we said it – Paul O’Connell and Rob Kearney are really, really imoprtant, and will be badly missed if not fit.  It might be obvious, we felt the need to say it anyway.

Way Off The Ball

Last night’s episode of Wednesday Night Rugby on Off The Ball was a dispiriting affair.  The outstanding sports show has the best interviewer in Irish sport – Eoin McDevitt – in the chair, and answering the questions was the genteel, insightful and always balanced Keith Wood.  And, eh, Gerry Thornley.

Gerry’s performance hit a new low ebb last night.  There had been flickers of his old self during the summer tour, but last night stamped out any dying embers.  He appeared positively affronted when McDevitt put it to him that the IRFU should be looking at lining up replacements now, rather than leaving it to nine months time.  He is only capable of seeing an upturn in Ireland’s fortunes, in spite of all evidence in front of him.  When Brian O’Driscoll’s eye-opening quotation about not really knowing who’s in charge of Ireland’s attack was put to him, he simply ummed and aahed, leaving Keith Wood to point out that this was a proper criticism, indeed a shot across the bough.

Then the hand-picked, selective statistics came out.  Ireland were top try scorers in the Six Nations!  Our attack is fine!  Yes, they were, but nine of the thirteen tries came in home games against Scotland and Italy.  The more pertinent statistic is that Ireland won two out of five games and remain maddeningly inconsistent and reactive.

The lowest point came when Keith Wood suggested Ireland should bring in Joe Schmidt to offer a different voice and bring something new to Ireland’s attack.  Thornley’s extraordinary response was that this would cut across Les Kiss.  Apparently we should be more concerned about upsetting the ego of Ireland’s already overworked defence coach than getting the best possible coaches to work with.  It’s hugely depressing that the leading rugby journalist in Ireland’s predominant rugby paper should be pussy-footing around the obvious issues like this.  Nobody wants our journalists to become a ‘head-on-a-plate’ raging mob, but asking the pertinent questions is the least we should expect.

WoC recalls a time when any Six Nations or Heineken Cup day began with reading Thornley’s previews in that day’s Times, be it on the couch or on the way to the ground.  It’s a sad decline from a once great writer.

Levels of Importance

If Kidney’s favourite mantra of the last six months has been the yawning chasm between test rugby and Heineken Cup rugby, the theme for the coming season has become clear this week; how much more important playing for your country is than for your province.  Similar, but subtly different.  Brian O’Driscoll – always the man to get the party line across to the media – underlined all this in an interview with Simon Hick on Monday night.  Being a provincial legend is all well and good, he said, but the players and fans – don’t forget the fans – have to remember that it’s playing for your country that’s the greatest honour and to which the greatest importance must be attached.

This season always looked like one in which the national team would strike back at the increasingly successful and popular provinces, and this is just another part of the process.   That’s the same process that sees a 30-strong group of players convening in Carton House this week for a bit of training and, it would seem, some manly chats about where the team is going and how to correct the slide.

There’s shades of ‘All Back to 2008’ about this.  When we last heard this sort of thing aired, it was when ROG said the players ‘needed to buy into the green shirt a bit more’ in the aftermath of Munster’s second string giving New Zealand a right good scare, just days after Ireland barely fired a shot against them.  And we all know what came next.  But can the old magic be conjured up again?

While it’s difficult to argue with the message in and of itself, it’s not the sort of thing that can be manufactured.  It’s all well and good telling the public that the green jersey is more important than the provincial one, but it can only be truly demonstrated on the pitch. And Sexton’s argument that the players must perform a notch better in green than with the provinces is perfectly fine, except that it is apparent that the coaching and tactics enable a much higher performance level with the provinces than with Ireland.  Wasn’t it Sexton himself who once said that he was “delighted to be back in an environment where you know exactly what the coaches want of you”?  We’ll leave it to you to guess which environment he was describing.

The first port of call for the IRFU is selling tickets to the upcoming November internationals, and they’re not an attractive bunch of fixtures.  Ireland play Fiji in Limerick and the dull, grinding Boks and Pumas will aim to do their thing at the Aviva.  It’s hard to look good against any of them and the public will expect wins against Argentina and Fiji.  Ireland must win all three to deliver a positive series and build momentum for the Six Nations.  Failure to do so and the pressure gets ramped up another notch.  This season has a ‘last days of Rome’ air about it for the national coaching ticket.

Penney Passes First Test

When Tony McGahan left Munster we gave him an average report card, deeming his leagacy a mixed one.  His currency, however, is diminshing by the week, because Rob Penney has hit the ground running so well.  Indeed, he’s already done the one thing McGahan couldn’t do in all his four years there: get Munster to buy in to his philosophy.

Consensus was that McGahan wanted Munster to play a more expansive game than they had done under Kidney, but you wouldn’t necessarily have known that from watching them on the pitch.  Indeed, if Martians landed on Thomond Park and asked us what McGahan’s Munster’s gameplan was, we would have found it difficult to explain to them.  Under Penney, it’s clear what’s going on.  Backs and forwards no longer look like complete strangers who just bumped into each other in the corridors before the game.  There’s an emphasis on keeping the ball alive, and in James Downey and Casey Laulala, the personnel are there to do it.

In a perverse sense, Penney has been fortunate that he could bed in his ideas in the absence of Paul O’Connell and Ronan O’Gara.  Without wanting to denigrate two of the great players of this (or any) era, there was always a suspicion that they had too great an influence under McGahan’s reign.  When the pressure came on, Munster reverted to their way of playing the game; the way that brought them success under Kidney.  That meant ROG kicking territory and Paul O’Connell taking up the ball time and time again, but for little gain and sub-lightning-fast recycling.

Due to injury and player welfare requirements, both have been largely absent from Munster’s opening month, and the rest of the team have flourished in their absence, which is not to say they won’t be huge assets when they are back in the fold.  ROG is back already and O’Connell soon will be – but they’ll be being dropped into a successful, winning team, playing better than at any time in the last three years, as opposed to having to grab the team by the scruff of its neck, as would have been the case in the recent past.  The Munster camp looks a happy one.  They seem to be enjoying their rugby.  Just look at the re-energised O’Callaghan for proof.  Invisible and derided on this blog last year, he looks like Stakhanov reborn.

All that said, the real business starts now.  Next week, Munster go away to Ospreys (who have had a strange start to the season), and that’s followed up by the Leinster grudge match and the first Heineken Cup match away to Racing; a game which increasingly looks like the key to navigating the group.  Here’s three calls to ponder for Rob Penney:

1. The Back Row

One thing that hasn’t changed from last year is a lack of ball-carrying heft in the Munster pack, particularly in the absence of the injured James Coughlan, on whom they are already overly reliant for hard yards.  Dave O’Callaghan is putting his hand up for selection on the flank and CJ Stander has yet to arrive.  O’Mahony hasn’t played yet but has the sort of ball skills that look tailor made to Penney’s game.  Niall Ronan, Sean Dougall, Paddy Butler and Tommy O’Donnell are all in the picture too: tidy footballers all, but not in the Generation Ligind class.  What chance a backrow of O’Callaghan-Ronan-O’Mahony?  It would have plenty of football in it, but lacks for physicality and experience.  Penney must find the correct balance, which could bring Butler into the reckoning.

2. The Backline

WoC commented in its last seasonal review of Munster that they had good players to fill every shirt from 11-15, so there was no need for them to look as awful as they did.  This is being borne out.  Indeed they’ve so many good players that one is going to miss out.  Hurley is a particular favourite here at WoC; pace he may lack, but he’s big, strong and first and foremost, a proper footballer.  Howlett is captain, he plays 14.  Downey is inked in at 12.  It leaves Zebo, Earls and Laulala fighting for two jerserys, with Earls certain to start, but perhaps in the role he apparently hates.  All three look bang in form.  We’ve a feeling Zebo might just be the one to miss out, but this is a marginal call whichever way it goes and whoever misses out will get his chance at some stage.

3. Dun-dun-Dunnnnnnnnnn. Number 10.

O’Garawatch has never been such fun.  Losing his Ireland place crearly rankles; imagine if he lost his Munster starting jumper.  Picture the Sky cameras panning to his face in the Thomond Park stands.  Think of the media men sharpening their pencils.  Ian Keatley is knocking harder than ever, and looks better suited to the game Penney wants to play.  But you underestimate ROG at your peril, and we suspect both Leinster and Racing would still prefer to face Munster with Keatley at 10 than the wily old Corkman.  Keatley’s Heineken Cup starting debut is probably more likely to come at Thomond Park than in a hard away game.

Step aside, I’ll take it from here

Fridy night’s interpro between Ulster and Munster was a thriller; one of the best, most intense games we’ve seen in the Pro12 in some time.  Both sides had much to commend them, not least two great performances from full-backs Jared Payne and Denis Hurley, as well as their up-and-coming fly-halves.  This was surely both Keatley’s and Jackson’s best performances in their respective shirts.

In the end it came down to Munster looking to set up a winning drop goal, but not quite managing it.  They looked to have got themselves into position, but kept going through the forwards, presumably to get a little closer.  Then, driven backwards, the opportunity appeared to be fading, but they did, twice, get the ball into ROG’s hands but he couldn’t get his kick away on either occasion.

It made us wonder: should Keatley not have been the one in position to drop the goal?  Sure, ROG has form when it comes to last-minute drop goals, so his credentials are not in doubt.  But it was his first fifteen minutes of the season, and his general performance was showing plenty of rust, with two passes thrown to nobody particularly conspicuous.  Keatley, on the other hand, was playing well and kicking the ball sweetly.  He has now made his last 12 consecutive penalties and had already dropped two goals on the night.  He had his eye in.  Surely he was the man to drop the winning goal?

It reminded WoC of an incident at the end of the 17-17 draw between Ireland and France in Paris.  Late in the game with the scores level, Jamie Heaslip won a ruck penalty deep in his own half.  Ireland’s only chance of snatching the win was to boom the ball downfield far enough to get within drop-goal distance.  Sexton and Kearney have the biggest boots in the Irish team, but Paul O’Connell hit the default button, the one marked ‘Give the ball to ROG’, who gained about fifteen metres on the kick.

ROG is not a man to shy away from responsibility.  But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s the best man for the job in hand either.  It’s something he, and the leaders in the Irish and Munster teams, have to get used to.

Rich Man’s World

At the tail end of last season, we posted on the demands of the English and French clubs (here and here) to make HEC qualification more “merit-based”. We rather sympathised with their issues with the Pro12, and largely agreed with the Anglo-French proposal.

They will be discussed today in Dublin, and the Premiership has dramatically raised the stakes with the announcement of their TV deal with BT Vision – this includes the Premiership, the Anglo-Welsh Cup and (crucially) HEC games involving English clubs from 2014 onwards. The ERC’s first reponse was to effectively say “You can’t do this”, but McCafferty et al appear to have read the small print and seem to be confident that they can – given the ERC announced Sky have right to all HEC games until 2018, clearly someone needs a good lawyer.  We’ve more questions than answers on the legal issues – if anyone has any insight into this, please share it with us in the comments section.

It’s an extremely provocative step from the English, leading to plenty of articles with the word “arrogance”, and rightly so. It’s worth noting they are dangling a portion of this cash in front of the Celtic unions, telling them “You are welcome to a slice, so long as you do things our way”. With the famous parsimony of the IRFU, and the cash-strapped nature of the WRU and SRU, the English will be hoping it’s enough to make them to go all weak at the knees and fold like a cheap suit in the face of the flashy Englishmen and their sterling.  It’s also an attack on their own union, the RFU, with whom they have long been at loggerheads.  It’s a grab at taking ownership of the European Cup out of the union’s hands and into their own.

BT haven’t exactly behaved with mild restraint either.  Talk of ‘owning a sport entirely’ is extraordinarily arrogant and misplaced, and the surety with which they talk about the end of the Heineken Cup is recklessly presumptuous.  Who the heck are these Johnny Come Latelys anyway?

Ultimately, while European qualification is in the picture, this one’s all about money and power (well, duh).  And what a grubby old business it is.  But while it is difficult to like the brashness and obvious greed of the Premiership chairmen, it’s also important to bear in mind the situation in which some of them find themselves. The clubs who don’t own their own ground perennially struggle to break even, and if they fall too far underwater, the union won’t be bailing them out – a look at Wasps’ near-death experience is instructive here. Last year only four Premiership clubs returned a profit.  Little wonder they’re looking for a greater share of the pie.  But as Gerry Thornley pointed out this week, in comparing Saracens’ head Nigel Wray’s comments about money with the meagre performance and attendances they delivered in the competition, they’re not necessarily entitled to it.

Word is that the Celtic nations are apoplectic over the TV deal, but are willing to compromise over the qualification rules.  Indications are the Irish and Welsh have put together a proposal to maintain the 24-team structure, with eight qualifying from each of the three major leagues.  We can only presume the Scottish and Italians are not behind this.  Ultimately, we wouldn’t be entirely surprised if the tournament ended up looking very close to the structure we outlined, with one guaranteed participant from each Pro12 union and meritocracy coming into play after that.

It all leaves the French Top 14 clubs with the casting vote.  Align themselves with the Premiership and the Celts pretty much have to fall in line or retreat to their Pro12 competition.  But while the French are in agreement with the English over qualification rules, they have not acted with anything like the same bullishness, and appear more than a little put out over the TV announcement deal.  We can’t imagine a powerful group like the Ligue Natioanle Rugby allowing the Englsih to dictate terms over the new format, and the French have always had a better relationship with their Celtic Cousins than Les Rosbifs.  The English continue to threaten an Anglo-French league as a viable option should the Celts not jump on board, but the French appear disinterested in such a format.  It could be that the Premiership solo run has lost them their most important prospective ally, leaving them looking more than a little isolated.

We suspect there is nothing the humble rugby punter (needless to say, not at the forefront of anyone’s thinking in all of this) would enjoy more than to see the Premiership clubs hoist by their own petard.  Oh to be a fly on the wall at today’s meeting.

Nevin Spence RIP

As a rugby weekend, this one started brilliantly with a thrilling interpro at Ravenhill on Friday night, but was overwhelmed by sadness.  The tragic news of the death of Nevin Spence along with his brother and father puts blogging, rugby and everything else into perspective, and we were knocked sideways by the awful story on Saturday night.  One of our first ever posts was a jokey, throwaway piece gently mocking Gerry Thornley’s choice of words for saying Spence had ‘timed his career perfectly’, in that he had burst on the scene just as D’arcy and Wallace’s careers were reaching an end.  Talk about being put into new context.  If Spence’s arrival appeared perfectly timed, his departure is entirely the opposite: tragically premature.  Here’s the piece, written at the tail end of his breakthrough season in which he had arrived at the fringes of the international set up.  It’s a reminder of just how excited we were by his talent, and gives pause for thought for what might have been.  Our thoughts at this time are with the Spence family, their friends and Nevin’s teammates at Ulster Rugby.  RIP.

On both the Munster and Leinster fan sites, there is currently a mooted plan to sing a round of ‘Stand Up For The Ulstermen’ at their respective home games this weekend.  We encourage those who plan to be in attendance to spread the word.