First Trimester

The first round of HEC matches is over. How was it for you? We, needless to say, loved it, but who are this season’s Wright brothers, and who is Icarus?

Good start for:

The Big Guns

Clermont have been the best team in the competition, and Toulon and Toulouse are also 2 from 2. Sarries and Quins top their pools and look like they have the tools to go far, and Leicester spectacularly woke up in the lat 15 against the Ospreys. Ulster are 100%, and compatriots Leinster may be 2 points behind Clermont, but they are gathering momentum, and, the group looks liable to produce two qualifiers.  These are probably the eight best teams in Europe, and all are playing like it – the standard this season is high, lets hope it stays that way.

French Euro-patsies

We all expected Clermont and Toulon to be among the front-runners, and Toulouse have looked strong too. Biarritz have an easy pool, but, as per tradition, are giving Europe a decent lash.  But it’s heartening to see Racing Metro and Castres putting cats amongst pigeons. Racing Metro’s victory over Munster and denying of Saracens a bonus point are keeping both sides honest, and the sheer ineptitude of Embra means that two wins are not impossible in the double-header, meaning Racing could actually go into January in first place in Pool 1, meaning five Frenchies are likely to be in the mix after Christmas. Castres are the odd ones out of course, but at least they are trying a little – their win over Saints have put Ulster in the driving seat.

Bad starts for:

The Welsh regions

Three teams, six games, one win.  Llanelli are the very definition of ‘flattering to deceive’, and while they can point to some rough luck at times, until they have a set piece they can rely on, all their back play will be in vain.  A more relible fly-half is also a requirement, as Priestland’s beguiling World Cup form seems a distant memory at this stage.  Cardiff have also lost twice, even coming out second to English basement dwellers Sale.  They look a mess, and it can’t be doing wonders for their best players, Jamie Roberts and Sam Warburton.  More on the Ospreys later.

Scottish Rugby

Michael Bradley’s Embra have been shockingly inept, with low skill levels, poor handling and an inability to even get on the scoreboard.  How a side coached by Neil Back can be so embarrassingly poor at the breakdown, we are still trying to figure out.  Glasgow have been better, taking the game to Northampton early on, but their was something inevitible about their defeat.  Scottish rugby’s descent continues apace.

The Ospreys

We are singling out the Spreys due to their being part of the Group of Death with Leicester and Toulouse. If you consider that, for each of these 3 teams, the base case scenario is this: 2 wins over Treviso (one with a bonus point), 2 home wins and 2 losing bonus points away from home. Anything better than that, and they will be aiming to qualify, anything less and they are up against it. Leicester “lost” an away bonus point in Toulouse, but made it up by winning one yesterday. Toulouse are on track. But the Ospreys failed to stay with Leicester in the home straight and are now effectively on -1 points – they will need more than 5 points from their double header against Toulouse if they are to avoid starting the January games under pressure.

Gerry

There is more to the HEC than Ronan O’Gara and the magic of Thomond Park. Even Frankie thinks so. But not Gerry. His sickly-sweet schoolgirl love letter to Rog on Saturday was followed by a ludicrously optimistic reading of what happened at Thomond on Monday morning. Our favourite was this “Penney is a brave coach, for sure, and while there was a better mix to their game here, it understandably pleased him no end that his players evidently share his sense of conviction about the type of rugby they are trying to play.”, simply because it’s completely untrue – the players seemed far more comfortable in the second half when playing Axel-ball.

Stuck in the middle:

Munster

After 60 minutes of yesterday’s game, it was looking like a really bad start, but after finally waking up and getting a try bonus point against as inept a team as we have seen, this constitutes a decent start for Munster. Factor in Sarries missing a bonus point of their own, and the much better shape of the forwards when Donnacha Ryan moved into the second row and POM to blindside after Paddy Butler came in for Stakhanov, and Munster might just have stumbled upon their best configuration in time for the pool-deciding double header. Make no mistake though, there is lots of work to be done – Munster have played hesitant rugby in Europe ever since Toulon, and the brainless wide-wide shuttling of the first half was no exception, If they play like they did in the last half hour, they could trouble the globetrotting Englishmen, but probably still have to beat them twice to top the pool, or hope for an unlikely favour from Racing.

Northampton Saints

Northampton were the only one of our five big fish to lose on the road this week, going down to Castres.  In previous years, losing one out of your opening two games would not be seen as a disaster, but it looks like the big teams are pulling away from the middle rank, and it’s becoming essential to be able to win in venues like Castres, Glasgow and Llanelli.  It leaves them with an uphill battle to qualify; like Munster, they probably have to do the double over their rival in the December back-to-back rounds.

by whiffofcordite on October 22, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 22, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/10/22/first-trimester/

Medium Sized Fish Hosts Big Fish

This weekend we count five potentially defining games among the twelve, all along a similar theme: one of the tournament contenders must travel to one of the mid-ranking teams.  They’re the sort of games that if they were held in the reciprocal ground, they would be home bankers.  But such is the home-away swing-o-meter in rugger, that they take on a huge defining quality; any win on the road is to be prized in the Heineken Cup.

Indeed, these sort of tough away days against the makeweight division are exactly the sort of games that are the making of champions, or genuine contenders anyway.  They’re rarely all that memorable, the good teams are usually made to look pretty ordinary, but if any of the five can get the win and move onto somewhere between eight and ten points after two rounds, it sets them up for the all-important December head-to-head.  Think back to Munster beating Sale away in 2009, or Leinster toughing it out in Glasgow last season.  Can you remember too many of the finer details of the matches?  Probably not, but both wins were pivotal in ensuring not only qualification, but a home draw for the quarter final.

All five of the big fish won their opening games at home, as one would have expected.  This week will teach us a whole lot more about their title credentials.  For the medium-sized fish, this is already last chance saloon stuff.  With one defeat already on the board, defeat at home in round two and it’s more or less thanks and goodbye.  But win, and suddenly the picture is completely altered, and all sorts of possibilities open up.

And just who are these famous five?  Leinster, Ulster, Northampton, Clermont and Harlequins.  Here’s a look at what they can expect.

Llanelli v Leinster

In our preview we’ve already identified this as the key weekend in Leinster’s pool.  Last week’s decidedly uninspiring victory over Exeter has only served to ratchet up the importance of this game, and also the sense of trepidation among Leinster fans.  It’s looking like a tougher match by the minute.  Gordon D’arcy is likely to be in contention for selection, but Rob Kearney’s return appears uncertain.  The Louth man is badly missed at the moment, as he’s the only back who gives them real muscle, and the Scarlets backline is big on… bigness.  With Leinster yet to click, this one’s all about hanging in there and coming out with any sort of a win.

Leinster will win if: their front five is almost feral.  Scarlets are weak in the tight and Leinster can cut off supply at source, but only if Cian Healy is back on top of his game and Leinster get their second row selection right, and that could mean putting Cullen on the bench.

Scarlets will win if: Priestland keeps his cool.  Just what is this fellow all about?  We can’t make him out at all.  If he can keep the scoreboard working, Scarlets should have enough firepower outside him to finish the job.

Glasgow v Ulster

This is the very sort of game that would have scuppered the campaign of the Ulster of three or four years ago.  The onus is on the new teak-tough and increasingly impressive model to show they are no longer susceptible to such tawdry away days.  Last year’s defeat in Leicester was one such moribund performance, but they atoned in the Auvergne and, of course, Limerick.  Glasgow were in contention in Northampton until the last few minutes and led 15-0 after half an hour.  They’re no mugs.

Ulster will win if: they hold on to the ball.  They have the forward power to beat Glasgow, but away from home, they can’t afford the sort of sloppiness they displayed against Connacht and Castres.  More incision in their back play is the order of the day.

Glasgow will win if: they can hold their own at the set piece.  Ulster’s set piece is formidable, both in lineout and scrum.  If Glasgow can neutralise Ulster in this facet of the game, they’re halfway there.

Connacht v Harlequins

Surely Quins won’t be caught cold a second time?  We all remember what happened last year, when Connacht held out for a 9-8 win in horizontal rain to end a 14-game losing streak.  Last season, every time we felt Quins had run out of puff they seemed to find an extra reserve somewhere, and ended up English champions.  They look like bona-fide contenders in Europe this year.  Having already come out 5-0 at home to Biarritz, and with Zebre in the double-header, only a loss in Galway stands between them and topping the pool.  They’ll surely be too well prepared this time around for an ambush.

Quins will win if: they prepare correctly.  They have no excuses ans should know what to expect in Galway this time.

Connacht will win if: they can conjure up the spirit of last season, when they somehow held a one-point lead playing into a 10-point gale.

Exeter v Clermont

A most intriguing fixture.  In truth, the two halves of WoC aren’t seeing eye to eye on this at all.  Egg Chaser does not believe Exeter have the stuff to worry Clermont, and sees Les Jaunards pulling away in the second half.  But Palla Ovale, fresh from last weekend’s nerve-shredder, reckons Exeter at Sandy Park to be more than capable of beating a team which – let’s face it – doesn’t have a good away record.  Can Exeter back up their performance last week?  Do they have the power to match Clermont’s pack?  And do Clermont have the appetite to go to one of Europe’s more obscure corners and come away with the win?

Clermont will win if: they bring the same intensity as they do at the Marcel Michelin.

Exeter will win if: they can give the crowd something to shout about early on.  The Chiefs fans are a raucous bunch, and if their team can get their noses in front, it could be a long way back for the Bananamen.

Castres v Northampton

Saints gave themselves a fair bit of work to do last week by giving Glasgow a 15-point start.  They finished in credit though, and it was their cool heads in a crisis that impressed the most.  Now they must back it up with a win on the road.  Castres rested their first team in Ravenhill last week, but will be a different proposition at home.  More than any other French club, they are schizophrenic.  It’s back to back games with Ulster in December, so the onus is on them to at least match what Ulster accomplish in Glasgow.

Northampton will win if: their half-backs have a good day.  They have great power upfront and in the Pisi brothers, enough flair in the backline to make up for Foden’s absence, but at out-half they must pick the flaky, but occasionally brilliant Ryan Lamb, and hope he has one of his better matches.

Castres will win if: they get a sniff of a result.  Like Racing Metro, they’re not that worked up about the H-Cup.  But you can make the French interested by letting them into the game, just as Munster did last week.  If Castres get the feeling they can take a scalp, they’ll dial up the intensity.

We were tempted to include Cardiff v Toulon, but decided Cardiff were too rubbish to be taken seriously.  They even lost to Sale, for goodness sake!

by whiffofcordite on October 18, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Clermont Auvergne, Harlequins, HEC, Leinster, Northampton, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 18, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/10/18/medium-sized-fish-hosts-big-fish/

Decisions, Decisions

The first weekend of the HEC have left our trio of Kiwi provincial coaches with a range of interesting selection dilemmas (dilemmae?) – more than one of which will have a knock-on effect on Ireland, as Deccie’s November squad is announced next week. Let’s look at some shirts.

Ulster Scrummie

This one is intriguing. On the one hand you have a Springbok multi-talented RWC winner, Ulster’s best player of the last two years. On the other hand you have an electric young Irishman, developing at pace, and man of the match in Week 1. Who do you pick? Pienaar isn’t going to sit on the bench for long, but how can you drop Marshall after that performance? An away-day trip to Glasgae is probably, on paper, one for the more experienced man, but Marshall might be the smarter choice. Realistically, Pienaar is going to be the man in May, so why not give Marshall high-pressure exposure when you can? Also, it sends the wrong message to drop the incumbent when Mr Big Shot comes back. Pienaar will be off again from next week with the Boks – Ulster will need him in December, let him rest his weary bones now before South Africa’s high intensity (and Irish) test assigments.

Leinster second row

Leinster’s second row, as currently configured, looks for the knackers yard. Leo Cullen (2012 version) and Damian Browne is not a combination to strike fear into anyone really – Tom Hayes dealt with them with ease. Looking at the potential replacement, one name springs to mind – the lad on the bench with 100 Leinster caps, Devin Toner. If Toner cannot step up and claim a shirt now, he’s just not going to – if you see Schmidt stick with last week’s pair, or promote Denton or Roux into the starting XV ahead of Toner, for a game against the only Welsh region without one Lions contender in the engine room, that might be that for Devin Toner at this level. As much as we think that he has done enough, or justified some faith, it’s Joe Schmidt who sees him every day, and we have yet to see Schmidt give him a vote of confidence.

Munster 6/8

Without James Cawlin, Munster look chronically short of ball-carrying heft in the back row. Last week, they picked POM at 8 and Donnacha Ryan at 6 – this seemed designed to beef up the pack for an away-day assignment, and keep your best back rower in the side – no harm there. But it isn’t a viable plan going forward really – Ryan is needed in the second row, and POM isn’t a HEC-level 8. What are the options? How about move O’Mahony back to 6, where he should get a run of games, and bring in young Paddy Butler at the back of the scrum for some better carrying. Sure, it’s callow, but so is any combination we can think of, such as Dave O’Callaghan at 6 and POM at 8. Netani Talei could start for Embra, and, to be truthful, we don’t think POM could deal with him – we would chance Butler.

Ulster 6/8

Pre-season, we had highlighted this line as one of Ulster’s weak spots – beyond Fez/Henry/Wilson, we didn’t see any depth. Well, without 2 of the 3, they did ok on Friday, and Nick Williams has been their best player this season. New Willie John McBride (henceforth NWJMB) Iain Henderson was a revelation, but if Ferris can start, and with Wilson and Williams back, it’s unlikely he will keep his place, or even get a bench slot. Henderson, of course, is a second row by trade. Should you throw him a bench slot there in Lewis Stevenson (himself starting the season well)? Hard to manage, but he is tomorrow’s man, and there is no need to tear the hole out of him. We’d go Fez-Henry-Williams with Wilson on the bench. We’ll see NWJMB captain the 2021 Lions – no need to see him Friday.

Leinster 12

We have talked recently about how Ferg finally looks like getting a firm grip on the inside centre shirt in D4, but he might need to compromise this weekend. The word is that Dorce will be back, and if that happens, given the patched-up nature of Leinster’s outside backs, you’d think he’ll come in and take the 12 shirt with Fads moving to the wing to act as George North’s speedbump again try and stop George North. It’s a tough break for McFadden – if Leinster had a full deck, we think Schmidt would keep Ferg in the shirt. The ballsier call, of course, would be put Dorce on the bench and keep Andrew Conway on the wing – but Joe tends to be conservative for HEC away days.

Munster 10

Here is a bullet dodged by Rob Penney. Rog picking up a hamstring has reduced the number of O’Gara-supporting pieces in this weeks Irish media to zero – better to put them in the cupboard and dust them down for the Sarries double-headers. We suspected Keatley was always going to start this game, but now he gets to start it without Chief Ligind warming up on the sideline for the first 60 minutes. In a way, that would be better for Keatley – he needs to be able to deal with the unique pressure that challenging Ronan O’Gara for his shirt generates, but don’t worry – that pressure will come.

by whiffofcordite on October 17, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 17, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/10/17/decisions-decisions-2/

Good Week, Bad Week

We feel like Gerry when discussing the Ireland side – is there ever a dull weekend in the HEC? This weekend’s action was unmissable from first to last – from the new Willie John McBride, Iain Henderson, to the two Sunday games in la sud de France, it never stopped. What do we think?

McCafferty Gets it Wrong

Quelle surprise, one might say. McCafferty’s argument that the uncompetitive nature of the Pro12 allows the Celts to target the HEC games,which (naturally) disadvantages the English was hilariously undermined by his own clients. Saracens absolutely thrashed last years semi-finalists Embra on their own turf, while the Saints came back from what looked like the dead to beat Glasgow, also with a bonus point. Quins overcame the loss of Nuck Ivans to get their own 5-pointer against boring bosh-merchants Biarritz, putting them firmly in control of their pool (and it’s only Round One!). Even Sale, winless domestically, managed to win a game.  But the Premiership performance of the weekend was arguably Exeter Chiefs, who went to the RDS and did everything but beat double champions Leinster – they were desperately unlucky to come away empty-handed.

Over Before It Begins?

This weekend saw the flattest pair of Leinster and Munster displays in Europe in a very long time. And now both are up against the wall, facing must-win games next week. If Leinster lose to the Scarlets and get a bonus point, they will have 5 points. With the maximum realistic achievable points tally against Clermont another 5, that would leave them needing 10 from their last two games to give themselves a shot at qualification – a tall order even if they are back at their best. But that assumes Clermont will win in Exeter, and that won’t be easy.  We said it already; Round Two in this pool is going to be defining.

In Munster’s case, not only did they let Racing back into the game – twice – but Saracens full tally in Embra means Munster simply cannot lose when the Scots come to town.

Leinster badly need some oomph, a bit of wallop.  They’re not an especially big team and nor are they especially quick.  They don’t have a Nick Williams type figure that they can repeatedly go to for big carries.  Nor do they have a Timbo Visser they can work the ball to in wide channels to wreak havoc.  They’re all about accuracy – both at the breakdown and in their passing.  When they get it right, they reach a pace and skill level that no team can live with, but when they’re off their game they don’t have much else to fall back on.  They just have to keep trying.  On this occasion, their performance was reminiscent of the last season under Cheika, and eerily similar to the defeat to London Irish, and almost had a similar outcome.

Allez Les Big French Trois

Toulon, Toulouse, Clermont.  Les grandes French teams cest up and running.  Clermont and Toulon got themselves le bonus point wins at home, while Toulouse, without being particularly brilliant, ground Leicester into the dirt in manky conditions.  They lack the flair of past vintages, but they remain a credible force.  And they’ve an 18 year old kiddo (Gael Fickou) at centre who announced himself emphatically with a memorable try.  All three are going to be big threats.  As pour le reste, Castres et Montpellier offered up their usual resistance, but Racing Metro somehow sneaked a win.  We’ve always suspected Olly Barkley was a better player than he’s given credit for, and he was the coolest man in the ground, and the matchwinner, if not quite playing in the style to which he has become known.

Ulster on the march… just about

They did their best not to deliver a bonus point, but ultimately, Castres let Ulster have one with one of the silliest pieces of play we’ve ever seen.  Those who can remember back as far as the 2007/08 season might recall a fairly frazzled Leinster doing precisely the same thing against Toulouse.  All that said, it wasn’t a bad effort considering they had a stitched together back row, with only Chris Henry close to being a first team regular.  The match was notable for a couple of performances.  Paul Marshall is an absolute livewire.  Can they leave him out?  And Iain Henderson had a Heineken Cup debut to remember.  Big carries, big hits, bags of pace and all while out of position and at just 20 years old.  We don’t want to overhype him, but… dude is going to be some player.

It’s Open

Last year Clermont were the only credible challengers to Leinster.  Too many others were out of sorts, bedevilled by injury or in a ‘transitional period’.  Not this season.  For a start, Leinster look a notch below last season’s level, but there are plenty of sides who could go on to win it.  We’ll know a bit more next week, but right now Harlequins, Saracens, Ulster, Northampton, Toulon, Toulouse, Clermont and perhaps Ospreys all look capable of going the distance.  Leicester and Munster won’t rule themselves out despite poor starts.  It could be the best Heineken Cup in years.

by whiffofcordite on October 15, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 15, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/10/15/good-week-bad-week/

Heineken Cup Preview: Pool 6

Teams: Toulon, Cardiff Blues, Sale Sharks, Montpellier

McCafferty Unfairness Factor: Medium. Cardiff made a mockery of the structure of European rugby by sacrificing the Pro12, where they finished 7th, for a limp pool effort quarter final in the HEC, where Leinster thrashed them. That’s what McCafferty said anyway. The rest are genuinely elite, especially Sale.

Preview: The group of dearth.   Is this the weakest pool ever drawn in the Heineken Cup? The only challenger would be Cardiff’s pool last season. It’s certainly an advert for changing the seeding structure. Remarkably, Cardiff are still somehow a top seed, but they look set for a dreadful season.  They lost seven tries at home to Ulster two weeks ago.  Similarly, Sale appear a lot worse than anybody (well, us anyway) could have expected.  They’re winless (and useless) in the Premiership and staring down a season of fighting relegation.  Europe will hardly be a priority.

Nor will it be for the two French boys, but Montpellier gave it a better go than their results suggested last season.  They were on the end of a number of very tight results, be they draws or defeats.  Had they held on for a deserved win against Leinster in round one it might all have been different.  If the get some early momentum they might be a threat, and don’t underestimate how good Gorgodzilla is – he nearly dragged Georgia to victory over Scotland – a rudderless Cardiff should be a cinch.

For all that, though, this is Toulon’s to lose.  They boast the sort of mega-squad that can be kept fresh for a dual challenge and have world class forwards in Steffon Armitage, Fernandez Lobbe and Khizarashvili, to name but three. And while they wouldn’t be the most  likeable set-up, at least there’s the likes of Bakkies Botha Simon Shaw and Johnny Wilkinson knocking around to provide a bit of common decency.  Equally, they won’t be Castres Euro-bunnies – they want to rule the world. They made the knock-out stages in their first season (albeit at the expense of Top14 form), and are even better equipped this year.

Verdict: Hard to see any other outcome than Toulon to qualify, and they will target a home quarter-final; the other three to drown in a sea of mush.

by whiffofcordite on October 11, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 11, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/10/11/heineken-cup-preview-pool-6/

Heineken Cup Preview: Pool 5

Teams: Leinster, Clermont Auvergne, Llanelli Scarlets and Exeter

McCafferty Unfairness Factor: None!  Meritocratic qualifiers all.  Aside from the fact that Leinster and Scarlets will have cigars out in their namby pamby Pro12 while Clermont and Exeter will be locked in trench warfare in seeking to avoid relegation.  Gah!

Verdict:  Leinster.  Meet Clermont.  Ah, you know each other already.  Remarkably, this is the fourth consecutive season these two European heavyweights have crashed into one another.  And in the two seasons prior Clermont ran into a Munster side close to their peak.  Tough break, but it is making for one of the best pan-European rivalries around.  The games between Clermont and Leinster have generally been riveting and this season should be no different.

This is a hard group from top to bottom, though, and not just a two-way shoot-out.  Exeter’s progress from Championship dwellers to European qualifiers has been astounding.  While qualifying from the pool will be beyond them, nobody should take a trip to their atmospheric Sandy Park stadium lightly.

And what of Scarlets, the most enigmatic of Wales’ enigmatic regional teams?  They play with great panache and can score from anywhere, but the great breakthrough we’ve been anticipating has yet to happen.  Last year they found themselves two from two after winning in Northampton – the pool looked there for the taking, but they couldn’t muster a home win against an injury-stricken Munster.  They’ve recruited to bolster the tight five – their achilles heel – but will it be good enough to stay with the big boys?  And what of Rhys Priestland, their mercurial fly-half?  We’ve yet to see enough to convince us he’s any more than a flash in the pan.  We just don’t know how they’ll do.

They start the pool with a trip to the Marcel Michelin, where Clermont will win all their home games, but question marks remain over their away form.  For a European powerhouse, their away record is dismal.  Last year’s deconstruction of Saracens looked to have set the record straight, but it will pale beside a trip to the Palindrome in Decmeber, where Leinster have grown to feel very comfortable.  Their awesome power, great depth and monstrous backs require no further discussion here.

So, to Leinster.  Back-to-back champions, the attacking supremos, looking for a hat-trick in their own back yard, but is this one step too far?  They’re without Sean O’Brien for the first two rounds, their backline is injured and they have failed to plug the gap left by Nathan Hines and then Brad Thorn in the second row.  Without Thorn, can they match the power of Clermont?  Add to this a curiously leaky defence, and it’s time to get edgy.

There’s a growing feeling that this is the season Clermont finally get on top of the champions.  Leinster’s injury list is crippling and just how close Clermont came to winning that semi-final in Bordeaux is fresh in everyone’s memory.  Clermont will be deperate to finally put one over on them.

It’s possible that both wil get out of the pool, but that (and much else) will depend hugely on what happens in week two.  In that round, Leinster travel to Llanelli and Clermont to Exeter.  We’ll see just how much appetite Clermont have for digging out a result in an obscure corner of Europe.  Assuming they beat Llanelli in round one also, a win will put them in the position of aiming to be three from three when Leinster roll into town in December, which would leave them in control of the pool.

To hang on to their coat-tails, Leinster would need to win in Llanelli.  This Scarlets team is primed to pounce on the sort of soft defence Leinster have put up in recent weeks – indeed they have already done so this season.  It’s a very difficult looking fixture for the champions, especially with their injury list.  It’s going to be a case of hanging in there, trying to sneak the win and hoping that they can get their best team out in December.

Verdict: We’re going to say Leinster and Clermont to qualify, but with reservations.  Ordinarily in a pool with two very strong teams, the head-to-head dictates the outcome, but we’re identifying Round Two’s tricky away games as the key week.  If they both get through those, they can split the points on the head-to-head and both should qualify, with bonus points sorting out the order. Leinster probably deserve some trust after the last 2 years, but the absence of a beastly second might just mean Clermont to win the pool, Leinster through as a best runner-up.

by whiffofcordite on October 11, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Clermont, HEC, Leinster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 11, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/10/11/heineken-cup-preview-pool-5/

Heineken Cup Preview: Pool 4

Teams: Castres, Ulster, Northampton and Glasgow

Mark McCafferty Unfairness Rating: totally legit.  All teams finished in the top six in their leagues.  So we can categorise this group as ‘elite’.

Preview:  Elite indeed.  It doesn’t get any more elite than Castres and Glasgow.  Castres have established themselves as consistent top six material in France and are capable of beating good teams on their home ground, but are content to trot out the reserve team in European away games.  They define French ambivalence to the H-Cup.  Nonetheless, they can be a significant factor in that they could beat one of the big boys, but are unlikely to contest the group themselves.

The same applies to Glasgow, who have had a good start to the season.  They’re third in the Pro12.  They lack the sort of hard-bitten pack to get results on the road but could easily win all their home games.

Ultimately though, this looks like a shoot-out between Northampton and Ulster.  Both teams are bubbling just below the established big boys and both are knocking very hard to make that breakthrough.  Indeed, they’ve both been finalists in the last two years, only to be smashed by the Leinster juggernaut.

Northampton imploded last season in the face of a spirit-sapping last-dash defeat in Thomond Park (we think there was a drop goal or something, but we’re not quite sure). We have concerns over their mental fortitude: a stronger side would have recognised that while they lost the game, they were still well set for qualification.  Similarly, the manner in which they lost control of Leinster in the 2011 final and failed to see out a winning position in last year’s Premiership semi-final against Harlequins suggests a team that doesn’t quite have the mental to be winners.  They’ve plenty of strengths but they’re weak at half-back, where Dickson is an arm-waving, slow scrummie who can expect to hear the phrase ‘Use it!’ a lot and neither Myler nor Ryan Lamb are matchwinners.  And with Ben Foden injured, they lack real attacking threat.

It leaves Ulster well positioned.  This will be a tough season for the Ulstermen, who have to try to deal with the tragic loss of one of their number.  However, they look the sort of tight-knit bunch, with a spine of great leaders that will be exceptionally determined to lay down something great in Nevin’s memory.  They also have the heavyweight pack and dominant set piece – the best defensive lineout in the tournament, perhaps – to go toe to toe with Northampton, and boast an impregnable home fortress where they just won’t lose.  Coming out of on top of the head-to-head with Northampton looks to be the key to qualifying.

Verdict: Ulster to qualify.  The fixtures are set up nicely for them, with Castres first and last.  They should chalk up five points at home and if there’s ever a good time to have to visit one of the French middle tier it’s in the final week of the pool stages when they’re already out and minds are distracted by the Top Quatorze.  With the benefit of last season’s experience, they Ulster can edge out Northampton over two legs and possibly even make a home quarter-final.

by whiffofcordite on October 10, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Castres, Glasgow Warriors, HEC, Northampton, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 10, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/10/10/heineken-cup-preview-pool-4/

Heineken Cup Preview: Pool 3

Teams: Biarritz, Connacht, Harlequins, Zebre

McCafferty Unfairness Factor: Very high. Zebre didn’t even exist last season, and Connacht finished 8th in the Pro12 and got in due to Leinster’s heroics. Biarritz also got in the back door by winning the Amlin, so only Quins actually qualified of right.

Preview: Forewarned is forearmed for Quins here – they got mugged in Galway last year and it’s hard to see a repeat. Ditto for Biarritz, who lost in Aironi two years ago – the Zebre squad is largely the same, and the circumstances in which the Basques and Londoners won’t get four wins from the double bunnies are pretty hard to imagine. Biarritz are certainly more vulnerable, but they have oodles of experience in this competition.

Factor in a couple of home bonus points, and both of the big guns will expect to qualify – as well they should. Quins look better able to hoover up try bonus points, particularly away from home, so, if they split the head-to-heads, we would still expect to see the English champions emerge on top.

From a Connacht perspective, this pool presents both opportunities and threats – Zebre should easily be taken at home, but Zebre will see Connacht as their target for a home win as well. Strange as it may sound, if Elwood’s men come out of this with two wins over Zebre, they will feel disappointed.  We think that’s how it going to transpire – their other opponents look a little too streetwise to be beaten. On l’autre hand, if Connacht do beat one of the biggies, it will immediately supercede last year’s Quins results as their best ever European result. So, feast or famine, but them’s the margins at this level!

Verdict: Quins surprised us last season with their fortitude at the business end of the Premiership season, particularly after their meltdown in the Sportsground. That mental strength, allied to the genius of Nuck Ivans and the shrewd hand of Conor O’Shea, should steer them through as group winners and a home quarter final. Biarritz should come through on their coat tails as one of the wild cards. Connacht to do the double over Zebre – but that’s it.

by whiffofcordite on October 10, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Biarritz, Connacht, Harlequins, HEC, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 10, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/10/10/heineken-cup-preview-pool-3/

Heineken Cup Preview: Pool 2

Teams: Leicester Tigers, Ospreys, Toulouse, Treviso

McCafferty Unfairness Factor: Low. Treviso may have finished outside the top 6 of the Pro12, but they are de facto Italian champions, and deserve a place. The other three are either league champions (Ospreys, Toulouse) or runners-up (Leicester).

Preview: The proverbial group of death, containing the best team in Wales, the best team in France, historically the biggest guns in England (and the most successful at this level) and the best team in Italy.

Treviso are the obvious bunnies here, but they are no mugs at home – they spoiled Ospreys’ European season last year and nearly turned over Leicester themselves in the recent past – both will be forewarned, but don’t expect Treviso to lose six games, despite the quality of the opposition.

All three of the other sides are domestic heavyweights, but they will all have their eyes on success in both competitions – you won’t find any Castres types here. Each of them are armed with ferocious packs, and will expect to win their home games. Ospreys have often flattered to deceive at this level, but fear nobody – the binning of the galacticos has barely impacted their effectiveness, and Justin Tipruic is the best openside in the NH at present.

As for Leicester and Toulouse, no-one needs reminding of their pedigree in the competition, but they are both coming off disappointing seasons in Europe. Toulouse scraped into the QFs on the back of Quins’ implosion in the Sportsground, following their own implosion to Gloucesters Road Runners, then limply capitulated to Embra. Leicester endured a fearful beating in Ravers on a classic freezing Belfast night and finished 3rd in a nightmare pool, albeit with wins against Ulster (beaten finalists) and Clermont (beaten semi-finalists) and a team decimated by injury. Both will be hoping for redemption this season.

Verdict: This is a desperately difficult pool to call. Each of the big three will win their home games, and it will come down to who doesn’t slip up in Treviso, and how many bonus points they can glean away from home.

We have a slight leaning towards Leicester by dint of their general toughness, and memories of how disinterested Toulouse looked in their crunch game against Glaws last year – the attritional nature of the Top14 seemed to take more focus than usual for Les Rouges et Noirs. Ospreys are much improved, but are perhaps a year or two away from being able to win a group like this. Either way, expect this one to go down to the last breathless mucky scrum.

by whiffofcordite on October 9, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Bish Bash Bosh, HEC, Leicester

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 9, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/10/09/heineken-cup-preview-pool-2/

Heineken Cup Preview: Pool 1

Teams: Edinburgh, Munster, Racing Metro, Saracens

McCafferty Unfairness Factor: High. Embra are here despite finishing second last and barely breaking a sweat in the Pro12 – Mick Bradley’s game-targeting didn’t endear himself to the Anglos, and we don’t blame them really.

Preview: Bish Bash Bosh? Certainly from the Saracens and Racing Metro sides, but lack of grunt up front is Munster’s new Achilles heel, so they will want to keep it lively. Ditto Embra, whose wonderful offloading game took them all the way to the semis last year – Ross Ford was a revelation, and Barnesy quoted some stat at the pre-semis round table about their front row being the top three offloaders in the competition.

This has all the hallmarks of a good old-fashioned dogfight. Racing Metro won’t be hugely bothered, but won’t want to lose at home – their gargantuan pack is their only weapon, which should make for uncomfortable viewing for Munster … were it not for the fact the game is in the Stade de France. Rugby’s popularity in Paree is questionable, and if the atmosphere is dead, Racing might be vulnerable. It’s an important game in pool terms, because two away wins look necessary to win this.

Munster should win all three in Thomond, but only Embra look eminently beatable away from home. The surprise factor of the marauding Scots has surely gone, and Sarries and Munster will be targeting doubles – let’s not write them off completely, but a repeat of last season looks highly unlikely.

Sarries are tailor-made for going to Racing and bashing out a narrow win, but moving their home fixture to Brussels means the return fixture is not the banker it should be. However, two wins there, and they will be confident of getting through – it’s likely to come down to Munster and Sarries, and Munster don’t yet have the pack to enable their exciting backs to get enough ball to do damage. Sarries carry more than a whiff of mid-2000s Munster, and that side would have licked their chops at the sight of the lightweight Ligind pack.

Verdict: Unless Paul O’Connell is fully fit and firing on all cylinders, it’s hard to see how Munster will have the heft to pull off two away victories. Sarries’ up the jumper approach looks tailor made for this pool, and we’re predicting them to emerge after a serious dogfight – we don’t think they will get enough points to earn a home QF though.

We aren’t ironclad about this one – Munster have an opportunity here, they have the best backline in the pool by far, and if they manage not to get mashed up front, there will be chances to score.

by whiffofcordite on October 9, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Munster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 9, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/10/09/heineken-cup-preview-pool-1/

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