The English Are Coming

Topped pool in RWC11 with a 100% record, followed by disappointing defeat in the quarter-finals, heralding a rebuild of a tired team. Sound familiar? It should – Stuart Lancaster’s quiet revolution in England is gathering pace, and the scale of the re-build makes bringing in a couple of young wingers look positively tame in comparison.

Its worth noting of course that the Old Farts tried to entice a big name coach, and gave Lancaster a temporary contract through to the end of last season. Given the upturn in results (if not always performances), the meeja clamour became deafening, and Lancaster was duly handed the reigns through to RWC15. We should bear in mind what Napoleon said about lucky generals, for if Charlie Hodgson’s fingertips were an inch shorter, England could have lost to Scotland and Italy, and we wouldn’t be having this conversation. But they aren’t, and we are – and it’s Lancaster’s team.

The transformation from 15 short months ago is almost total – just three players started both the World Cup quarter-final and the opening game of the 2013 Six Nations (Ben Youngs, Chris Ashton and Dan Cole), although if Manu was fit, he would have made it a fourth. Also, and we are open to correction here, we don’t think one of the starting XV at the weekend had signed a professional contract when England memorably lifted the Webb Ellis Cup in 2003 – this is the first full generation switch since that win, and it’s a very important one. No-one who played with Johnno, Lawrence Bruno Nero and Wilko at their peak is on the team – and the influence of those greats has retreated. This generation does not feel constrained by a gameplan or identity they cannot relate to, and are comfortable playing a heads-up, adventurous style of rugger. We caught glimpses of this potential in the squad before, notably against Australia in November 2010, but it’s the dominant philosophy now.

We’re sure we aren’t alone when we say we had scoffed at the idea of Chris Robshaw as Lions captain as an evil Blighty construct up until very recently, but Robshaw has emerged as a worthy contender, and possibly favourite. His club, Quins, are reigning Premiership champions, are well-placed in the HEC (albeit partly down to using dastardly methods, such as “maximising their chances of winning” by choosing to play their home quarter-final… at home) and play a fresh and exciting brand of football. He has presided over this England side moving up from a confidence-shy, callow bunch of kids to a team with real prospects, and rode out the storm surrounding his tactical folly against the Boks admirably, showing real leadership. Robshaw might lack top-end pace, but he is a seriously hardworking player, and has yet to be “found out” as many predicted.  We still have a personal preference for a more specialised skillset in the Lions’ No.7 shirt, and hold on to our view of him as the ideal midweek captain, but he’s in the shake up for the big gig, no mistake.

How they make up the rest of their backrow will be intriguing.  Their No.8 Ben Morgan has been their best carrier, but looks to be out injured.  Tom Wood, one of the sport’s nice guys (despite playing for the Saints), is a highly effective ironclad blindside and lineout catcher, but word on the street is he’ll be pressed into action at No.8 where, as far as we can tell, he has little experience.  James Haskell would take the No.6 shirt.  Haskell is a player with ‘good face’ and speaks in English Rugby Voice, but he’s been in and out of the England setup down the years; he’ll produce a decent highlights reel but lacks real work ethic.  It’s a somewhat samey back row, made up of three six-and-a-halves.  The alternative is to bring in Wasps’ exciting and dynamic but inexperienced Billy Vunipola at No.8 and retain a better balance, but it seems Vunipola will be held in reserve.  Nick Easter – playing as well as ever – continues to be an unwanted man. Maybe he knows Wilkinson too well.

The second row is better balanced, with Leicester’s Geoff Parling running the lineout, and young Joe Launchbury – a massive find – offering an athletic, but physical presence in the herd of the pack. We especially enjoyed how Stephen Jones was scathing of his selection, campaigning for a raft of 34 year old scrappers in his place.  No English front-row is going to get beaten up, and there is plenty of bang-wallop on the bench, with the Vunipolas Mako and Billy, Dylan Hartley and Courtney Lawes on the bench.  And David Wilson!  What on earth is he still doing in the England team?!

England have two potential Lions scrum-halves in Ben Youngs and Danny Care, and it appears the competition is driving both to higher standards, with growing maturity being noted – and no matter who starts, there is a game-changer on the bench. Owen Farrell is a dead-eyed kicker (except in Thomond Park on wintery Saturday evenings obviously, when even the most mentally-strong of players metamorphasise into gibbering wrecks at the very sight of the tears of Irish print journalists) and improving at bringing his outside backs into play. Floody offers a bench alternative, and Freddy Burns is another talented youngster pushing for selection.

At centre, team fulcrum Tuilagi utterly destroyed the standout inside back line of this era (Caddah, Nonu, Smuth) last year with his physicality, pace and offloading skills. In Tuilagi’s absence, Billy 36 stepped in to give a man of the match performance inside old-fashioned bosh merchant Brad Barritt-Ooooooooooh – 36 could potentially drop out of the 23 for Dublin if Manu returns, which is an acknowledgment of England’s strength and depth. We suspect Lancaster would love the idea of a 36-Manu midfield, but the unheralded Barritt is the man who leads defensive alignment, and Manu, for all his strengths, is not the man to take over this duty, and the role may be considered too great a responsibility for Twelvetrees on his second cap.  Next on the depth chart is the much-hyped Jonathan Joseph; Guscott seems to think he is the best English centre since himself, and the second best ever, after himself.

Ben Foden is in most people’s Lions squads, yet Alex Goode and Mike Brown are the squad fullbacks right now – Foden has just returned from injury, and Lancaster has surprised us by leaving him out of the squad entirely.  Personally, we’d prefer to see Ireland face Goode than the classy Foden, but Lancaster is rewarding form, which is working well for him.  At wing, they’re going with another full-back, Mike Brown – which leaves them in a strong position to contend high balls -alongside Loathsome Chris Ashton (let us be fair and acknowledge at this point that most of the England squad seem like fine young chaps, and Ashton is an outlier, along with C-bomb Clark). Although not at his best by any means, Ashton will offer Ireland’s mini wings a different threat to the Welsh monsters – he plays off his 9 and 10, and if he is not tracked inside, he will be gone through the gap before you can say ‘Ian Humphreys defence’. Dave Strettle, Charlie Sharples, Christian Wade and Johnny May are just a few of the exciting alternatives.

So, to put that all together, England have a talented team, impressive depth, a clear vision and are well-coached and selected, with a question mark over the make-up of the backrow. There’s a humility and likeability around them that – let’s face it – not many previous vintages have had (except for Shawsy, Wilko and Josh Lewsey, who were gents, of course).  That’s good news for them with a home RWC in prospect, especially with the opportunity to knock a rival out at the group stages.  They might be feeling a little too plummy about themselves right now, given their rave reviews in the media, which would be no bad thing, but so far they haven’t given Ireland any ammunition.

For now, it’s vital Ireland pile the pressure on them with intensity and aggression the like of which they have yet to see. Amid the hallooing of their win over an infection-crippled New Zealand team, it has been largely forgotten that they lost at home to Australia and South Africa.  For Ireland to win, they will need to win the physical stakes, for this England side will cut you to shreds with a platform. Hassling the scrum halves is a necessity.  Both Youngs and Care are quick and lethally dangerous if given front-foot ball and a gap to run into, but we’ve seen that they can become flustered under pressure.  Ireland will be happy to have Conor Murray, a terrific defender, to patrol the fringes and, assuming O’Brien is picked at 7 again, he can expect to have another high tackle-count next to his name.  It’s a very different challenge to winning in Wales, and one we welcome for this Ireland side – England are going to be contenders at RWC15, and we should consider them a developmental benchmark at this stage of the game.

Johnny Sexton is (again) Ireland’s key man, alongside, of course, Mike Ross.  Sexton has the experience and poise to pilot Ireland through this game, and the reward for doing so is a cut at only a third Grand Slam in our history. But it won’t be easy, not at all.

by whiffofcordite on February 7, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in England, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 7, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/02/07/the-english-are-coming/

The Mystery of the IRFU Succession Rules

Around a year ago, the IRFU announced its ‘succession rules’, whereby it would restrict non-Irish qualified players to one per field position across the provinces, and operate on a ‘one-contract-and-out’ basis.  The idea was to ensure at least two Irish-eligible players were playing first team rugby in each position across the three major provinces.  They were announced to general bafflement among a public that has become deeply loyal to their province of choice.  The IRFU hosted a twitter Q&A session, where they gave infuriatingly vague replies to fans who were wondering what on earth was going on, but failed to generate any goodwill or provide satisfactory responses.  It was one of the biggest PR gaffs the union has made in recent memory, up there with their ticket pricing policy for the November 2010 internationals.

Curiously – or maybe not so curiously – since the initial furore which greeted announcement, we’ve had radio silence on the issue.  Isa Nacewa was allowed to sign a one-year extension, apparently at odds with the rules; keeping him in Leinster until 2014, a year after the rules are apparently meant to come in. And today, Ulster announced Johann Muller was staying until the end of next season.

In the case of Nacewa and, especially, Muller, both are keeping young Irish players out of the team, seemingly at odds with the rules – both might be the highest-profile NIQs in their position, but we simply don’t know if that was a criterion in their contract offer.

Confused?  You’re not the only one.

The quietude around the rules has led people to ask: are they still going ahead?  We’re in the dark as much as anyone else over this.  It would be no surprise if they were quietly folded away and put to bed without any fanfare or announcement.  Another possibility is that the IRFU maintains they’re going ahead, with vigorous affirmations of the importance of adherence, but only enforces them selectively – that is to say, in actuality they don’t enforce them at all, but pretend they do in order to save face.

It looks like this will come to a real head quite soon, as Munster and Ulster’s NIQ tighthead props are making noises about leaving.  Tighthead prop was really the only position the rules were brought in to cater for, because as everyone knows, Mike Ross is the only Irish-qualified prop starting important games for his province, and it’s the only position where Ireland are so dependent on one player.

At Munster, BJ Botha is rumoured to be moving to Toulon, where he has been offered a two-year contract, while Ulster’s John Afoa has mentioned in a recent interview that he plans to return to New Zealand at the end of his contract, which expires in the summer of 2014.

Under the succession rules, Munster would be precluded from recruiting a foreign tighthead for next season, since NIQ players must be replaced by Irish eligible players once their contract has lapsed.  Ulster, similarly, would not be allowed to recruit an NIQ player the following season, once John Afoa departs.  But does anyone really believe the IRFU will hamper the provinces so severely?  It strikes us as unlikely.

The foremost Irish tightheads at Munster and Ulster are Stephen Archer and Declan Fitzpatrick.  Neither would be fit for the purpose of mounting a challenge for the Heineken Cup.  Fitzpatrick can lock a scrum, but is rarely match-fit, while Archer struggles to cope with even moderately technical opponents in the set-piece.  If both provinces are to have aspirations of beating the better French or English sides, some recruitment will be required.

The only Irish-eligible tighthead who looks a remotely plausible signing is Worcester’s Belfast-born John Andress.  Ploughing away in the Worcester front row may not sound like the stuff of greatness, but the Aviva Premiership is a set-piece-heavy league, packed with hardy scrummagers (Andress’ regular opponents in the scrum would include the likes of Soane Tongauiha, Alex Corbisiero, Marcos Ayerza and Joe Marler – not exactly wallflowers).

Andress has had something of a journeyman career so far, but has amassed plenty of gametime since he moved to England.  He made 44 appearances in the Championship for Exeter Chiefs, before moving up a level to the Premiership with Harlequins in 2009.  He made 30 starts for Harlequins over two seasons before returning to the Chiefs, but found his path to the first team blocked on returning.  He’s started 10 games and made eight further appearances from the bench for Worcester this season.  He might find his opportunities slightly more limited in the rest of the season, with Euan Murray having pitched up at Sixways.  That he has never been deemed essential by some fairly mediocre clubs is a mark against him, but his CV is several notches up from that of Archer or Fitzpatrick.

His is a solid body of work, and his career path looks suspiciously similar to that of Mike Ross.  That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be as good as Mike Ross, but at 29, he should be coming into his prime as a scrummager.  If the IRFU do decide to persist with their ill-conceived succession rules, he can expect his value to increase sharply.

But even if Andress is the answer – and there’s no guarantee he would be – there’s only one of him, and two provinces for whom the issue of recruitment is pressing.  If the IRFU is going to go ahead with its ill-advised move, and enact it to the letter, it is going to have to choose between Munster and Ulster and seriously weaken one of them.

Prop recruitment in general has been a mixed bag among the provinces in recent years.  Botha has delivered good value for both Ulster and Munster over five highly productive seasons, while Afoa has been consistently outstanding for Ulster.  Nathan White, as a stop-gap for Leinster and now at Connacht, is another success story.  But then there are the Clint Newlands, Peter Borlases and latterly, Michael Bents, whose careers in Ireland have been stillborn.

Even if Ulster and Munster are given the licence to recruit, there are no guarantees of quality, and competition for the best will be fierce from the Top 14 in particular, where clubs think nothing of having six first-rate props on their books, and rotating them over the season – the best props coming from the Southern Hemisphere will get hoovered up by the French clubs, as will the French ones (obviously) and the Georgians. The English ones aren’t going to come to Ireland. So, essentially, to replace Afoa and Botha with NIQ props will not only break the IRFU’s own rules, but be hugely expensive into the bargain, as we will be competing with Toulon, Clermont and Racing Metro.

by whiffofcordite on February 5, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ireland, Ireland's Scrum Woes, Ireland's Tighthead Crisis, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 5, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/02/05/the-mystery-of-the-irfu-succession-rules/

It’s ALIVE!

Lethargy for the grand old tournament has been growing in recent years, with the Heineken Cup more colourful, varied, approachable and enjoyable in an increasing number of fans’ eyes.  But this opening weekend blew the cobwebs away.  We had been told by all comers that the refereeing ws going to be positive, punishing those whose influence at the breakdown was negative.  They seemed to get their message across, because the three games were all fantastic, with all teams looking to attack.  It’s early days, but it’s shaping up to be the best Six Nations since 2007, or perhaps even better yet.

Ireland are up and running

It was a hugely commendable performance from Ireland.  Last year, the team sat off Wales and let them dictate the game.  Not this.  Ireland imposed their game plan on Wales.  Given the bizarrely fluctuating performance level of this team over the last three seasons, backing up the Agentina win with another good performance was absolutely critical.  They have now done that.  It creates a sense of building momentum, underlined by the manner win which Murray and Sexton appear to have developed an understanding of how each other plays.  It has taken them some time, but they are such good players, that it has been worth waiting for.  Now they just have to do it again, against England.

Kidney Casts off the Shackles

We were wrong and Kate McEvoy was right.  Deccie nailed his team selection and tactics this week.  O’Mahony utterly vindicated his selection over 50 minutes of barnstorming rugger.  Gilroy’s kicking was loose at times, but he put in some huge hits in defence.  A year ago, you feel Kidney would have played the ‘we know what he can do’ card and picked Earls on the wing, but he took the risk, and was rewarded.  We still have a preference for Luke Fitzgerald in the back-three, but Gilroy ultimately delivered for his coach.  Kidney has been wilfully conservative at times over the last few seasons, but with his contract renewal hinging on the outcome of this series, he has nothing to lose and appears willing to gamble a bit more.

If Rob Howley had got his own selection right, and picked the in-form Jason Tipuric from the start, perhaps things might have been different.  But he didn’t, and it wasn’t.

Ireland have no bench

It took Deccie years to get the hang of the whole ‘bench’ thing, but in the last 24 months he got the knack for it.  Just don’t expect him to use it much this year; because we don’t really have one.  Ireland did have a good bench over the last couple of season, but that was when Reddan was making a strong case for selection and ROG could still influence a test match; neither is the case this year.  Backrow is the only place where Ireland can bring on somebody to change the dynamic of the game, with Henry bringing something different to either of the starting flankers.  O’Callaghan can replace tiring legs late in games, but he’s not going to really alter the balance of a match.  Let’s not even talk about the front row.

The single biggest threat to Ireland’s hopes of winning the championship is fatigue to the likes of Murray, Sexton, Best, Ryan ,Healy and of course Ross, who will all be required to put in 70-80 minute shifts in all five games.  England, by contrast, have a bench stacked with impact men – Danny Care, Courtney Lawes, James Haskell (whatever you make of them).  Dare Kidney revisit his famous squad rotation in Murrayfield or Rome, and rest one or two of his key men should Ireland be closing in on a possible grand slam?  Let’s cross that bridge when if we come to it.

Kidney does have some options to give more oomph to his bench.  Earls hasn’t impressed recently in green (although we wouldn’t write off his hopes of being a test centre just yet), and Fitzgerald is worth considering for the 23 shirt.  Paul Marshall performs the role of impact sub with gusto at Ulster, and is in far better form than Reddan.  There are other options at 10, with Madigan the most enticing, but none have any test rugby experience, and it’s a safe bet that Sexton will accumulate 400 championship minutes this season, injury permitting.

Simon Zebo – the new Ugo Monye?

Yep, that’s  what we thought a year ago.  Joke’s on us!  Last year Zebo looked exciting, scored lots of tries, but was pretty raw.  We questioned whether he had enough football skills to be the real deal, or was he just a straight-line runner in the Ugo Monye mould.  The extent to which he has improved his game over the last year is remarkable, and that flick will feature on highlights reels for years to come.  Thankfully it got the reward it deserved with Church bashing over the line from close quarters. Zebo could/should/will (delete as appropriate) be the poster boy for Irish rugby for years to come, provided those dastardly Frenchies don’t steal him, as they tried to this year.

Forza Italia

What a win!  What a match!  Italy were simply wonderful.  They offloaded, they ran and they had Parisse.  Their fly-half, Lucky Luciano Orquera, played at a level he has probably never attained in his life, and everything came off.  Their ambition was laudable; they played to win the game and not just to keep the score down, as they have so often in the past.  In the 74th minute, protecting a narrow lead, they won a turnover and guess what? –they counter-attacked again.  They have a chance now to win two or even three matches, but must try and bring the same energy on the road as they do in Rome, which they’ve never really done before, in order to beat Scotland.

The game was brilliantly presided over by Nigel Owens, who communicated clearly and fairly, and with no shortage of his usual wit (‘I could have penalised any of eight of you’, he said at one point).  He looked utterly unflustered throughout, a man clearly enjoying himself in a high-pressure environment.

by whiffofcordite on February 4, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 4, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/02/04/its-alive/

Six Nations Preview

This post is from our regular column in the Irish Post, the highest-selling newspaper for the Irish in Britain (which these days includes businessmen, lawyers and doctors, as well as dead-eyed brickies in Cricklewood). The paper is published on Wednesday’s in Britain, and our columns will be re-produced on the blog on Fridays.

It’s that time of year again: Hooray Henrys braying in the finest hostelries of Dublin 4, sour-faced Welsh fans complaining their team didn’t win by enough, and Cedric Heymans and Clement Poitrenaud in the smoking area of Coppers late on a Saturday night. It’s the Six Nations.

And it’s a fresh-feeling version of the old tournament as well – it seems pretty open, and all countries are well on the World Cup 2015 trail (well, all except the usual suspects, Ireland and Scotland) with their cycles into the second year. France and England in particular look much improved from last year, when the Welsh rode their World Cup 2011 semi-final all the way to a third Grand Slam in seven years. Yet it was low-quality fare in general – only the Taffs will have been content with their form.

Now, let’s look forward to the next five weekends of John Inverdale-filled fun. We’ll start with the French. Phillipe Saint-Andre has now begun to put his stamp on the team, having stated that it was time they “switched generations” – the Servats, Bonnaires and Yachvilis are out and the likes of Louis Picamoles, Yannick Nyanga and Maxime Machenaud are in. The most visible change is, of course, the rebirth of Freddy Michalak.

It’s seven years since the flawed genius last electrified this tournament and, it’s safe to say, he owes it – what a feeling of unfinished business he must have.  England grabbed the November headlines with their stunning victory over New Zealand, but France were the best in Europe – they hammered an Aussie team that wiped a purple-clad England, and ground down a fine Samoa team. They’ll probably lose in Twickenham (plus ca change) but win the tournament, with Wesley Fofana the star of the competition.

Speaking of Twickers, the red-blooded, upstanding chaps in the white jerseys have a nice look about them. Stuart Lancaster is now full-time in the job and their squad is sprinkled with exciting youngsters that might just light up their home World Cup in two-and-a-half years – Joe Launchbury, the Vunipolas (Mako and Billy), Freddy Burns and Manu Tuilagi for example. They still struggle for consistency, which is to be expected, but won’t see too much to fear. A win in Dublin looks an ask, but four wins would constitute a good tournament. And the performances will surely be better than the abominations against Scotland and Italy they produced last time. England are serious contenders and look like they will be right through to 2015.

Unlike Ireland.

The IRFU’s amateur-era blazers are saddled with a coach who is one loss in Wales away from being the lamest of lame ducks. Finishing a largely-disastrous 2012 on a high, Declan Kidney is into the final few months of his contract and Ireland are six months away from starting our World Cup cycle – is it any wonder we flatter to deceive when we get there?

This is make-or-break time for Kidney; he badly wants a new contract, but it is time to show if he can lead this team in the right direction. Post-2009, Ireland can’t seem to break a pattern of one-off performances and maddening inconsistency.

The feelgood factor is at least reasonably high after an autumn in which a team shorn of its older generation of leaders tore Argentina apart. But can Ireland overcome the twin distractions of Brian O’Driscoll being stripped of the captaincy and Jonny Sexton leaving for Racing Metro?

Memories of Ireland’s lacklustre starts in recent series and three desperate losses in a row against the Welsh mean we can’t be confident about getting a win in the Millennium, and until Ireland beat France, we remain unconvinced the team has the mental strength to do so. We’re forecasting three wins and another curate’s egg of a tournament. It won’t be enough to save Kindney, so it’ll be back to the coaching drawing board 18 months after everyone else.

Speaking of the Welsh, it’s hard to know what to make of them. After looking chock-full of Lions this time last year, it’s hard to pick their starters this time out. Rhys Priestland is injured and inspirational captain Sam Warburton should be benched on form.

Worst of all, they’re missing their five (five!) best second rows and ironclad blindside Dan Lydiate. And yet – even missing all of the above and Lions coach Warren Gatland, they could get their act together. They have a solid front row and giant, skilful backs, but Rob Howley doesn’t fill us with confidence – three wins, and discontent in the Valleys.

As for Italy and Scotland, we cannot get too excited. Jacques Brunel has the Azzurri playing some silky stuff while making progress. But until they find some half-backs of passable quality, all their grunt is in vain.  Scotland replaced Andy Robinson with the serially unimpressive Scott Johnson after Tonga felt their sporrans in November and, despite the wooden spoon playoff being in Murrayfield this year, we think (and hope, for Sergio Parrisse’s sake) the Italians will do it.

Of course, this is a Lions year, which adds an extra dimension. Four years ago, Ireland had an unprecedented number of tourists as St Ian McGeechan tried to bring the Munster spirit, and half their team, to the tour. This time last year, the Lions-in-waiting team was festooned with Welsh, but they have the most to lose –the likes of Warburton, Mike Phillips and even George North could easily play themselves out of test contention.

It’s the English who look to have most to gain – any of the aforementioned nippy youngsters, plus Danny Care and Chris Robshaw could all be on the plane by Easter if they bring their recent club form to the white shirt. Robshaw is even a potential captain, even if he may not quite have the pace for the hard Australian ground. The hope, of course, is that the likes of Sean O’Brien, Rory Best, Donnacha Ryan and O’Driscoll hit enough form to join already-on-the-plane Cian Healy, Jamie Heaslip, Sexton and Rob Kearney.

So then, France to win it all, but no Grand Slam and no Triple Crown, with Scotland at the bottom – you heard it here first!

by whiffofcordite on February 1, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Deccie Kidney, Ireland, No seriously we have a gameplan, RWC15, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 1, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/02/01/six-nations-preview/

Tipping Point

Egg read Ruchie’s book on a boring journey of late, and he found the post-RWC07 discussions illuminating. Obviously, Ruchie, Graham Henry and everyone connected with NZ rugby was devastated and disappointed with the defeat to France, both the manner of it and when it happened (quarter-finals). New Zealand had a goal of winning the World Cup and failed. So what were the next steps? The NZRU works on cycles based on the World Cup, so the Union set a goal (winning RWC11 at home) then asked how best to achieve that.

The Union then invited applications and pitches for coaches to do that. Robbie Deans applied, as did Graham Henry. Henry, though, applied as a team, with Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith, with a 4-year plan (diversify coaching expertise within the team, Grand Slam tour of the NH in 2008, retain Tri-Nations, win RWC11). Deans was a better head coach candidate than Henry, but Henry came with a better plan, and got the job.

The key thing was NZRU had metrics by which to judge performance, and criteria by which to judge applicants. In Ireland, we don’t have that. We used to roll from Six Nations to Six Nations, a state of affairs which only ended when Deccie got the job – he started in the 08/09 season and got yearly, season-based contracts. His latest 2-year extension was signed in summer 2011, just before the RWC.

Ireland had an ok tournament – they beat Australia, but fell at the quarter-finals to Wales. We aren’t sure if Kidney had a target from the Union, but, if he did, you would think it was a semi-final appearance. But we don’t know, and he had a new deal anyway. So now, Kidney has 6 months left on his contract, and this tournament is about whether he will lead Ireland into RWC15 or not. If we win a Grand Slam, or just miss out, like 2007, that’s going to be Deccie. If not, who knows who it will be. Either way, we are 2 years behind everyone else come November.

Last year’s Six Nations was a write-off for Ireland – just two wins, over Scotland and Italy, a creditable draw in Paris and a pair of horrendous defeats to Wales and England, notable for a passive gameplan and a mashed scrum respectively. More importantly, squad development was negligible – Ireland picked just 19 players, with all changes injury-enforced. Stalwarts like Donncha O’Callaghan and Gordon D’Arcy, who will be long gone by RWC15, played every game, and Ronan O’Gara, who has also played his last RWC game, remained a key squad member.

Since then, development has got better in spite of more horrible results, notably a 60-0 thumping in Hamilton – the likes of Chris Henry, Richardt Strauss, Mike McCarthy, Simon Zebo and Craig Gilroy have shown they have what it takes for Test level rugby, and the generation of Ryan, Sexton, Heaslip and Kearney have taken ownership of the team. A near-miss in the second test in NZ was unlucky, then a merry thumping of Argentina improved the mood somewhat. But, the fact remains, last years Six Nations was a huge missed opportunity – and its not like playing the same old faces results in a successful tournament.

Now, this isn’t completely Kidney’s fault – we don’t know if his bosses mandate him to concentrate on the Six Nations, or the RWC. Does he have license to use the first Six Nations after the RWC for squad development? You would suspect not, and, even if he did, would he, given his personal goal is to get a new contract in the space of 2 Six Nations and 1 November series? Unlikely. The nature of how the IRFU award contracts mitigates against that – the extension in 2011 was unrelated and uncorrelated to achievement in the RWC, and it doesn’t help the coach plan in a 4 year cycle.

The squad looks deep and talented right now (with 2 exceptions we will discuss below) and well set for a build into England 2015, with a good blend of youth and experience across the team. In the front row, Kidney has the luxury of auditioning candidates for bench roles at loose-head prop and hooker with the knowledge they have some Test experience and will be able to do a job. Cian Healy and Rory Best are incumbents, but there is depth, and occasionally competition.

Tighthead prop is a war zone – Mike Ross was in management cross-hairs in November for not putting the toilet seat up (or something), but the cupboard is bare. Michael Bent started off promisingly against the Boks, but has regressed to such an extent that serially-crocked Deccie Fitz is considered more reliable. After that, it’s the Scarlets’ favourite prop Stephen Archer and backpedalling Jamie Hagan – not good.

In spite of missing Paul O’Connell and Dan Tuohy through injury, Ireland’s second row resources are strong – Ryan and McCarthy had a great November, and willing winger Stakhanov is having his best season since 2009. If more injuries befall this sector, Devin Toner and NWJMB are available – neither are at Test level yet, but it’s not scraping the barrel. Even Ryan Caldwell is an option.

In the back-row, Fez is a long-term injury loss, yet we can still afford to have the likes of Roger Wilson and James Cawlin nowhere near the matchday squad. This unit is a strength, if badly-balanced – the absence of Chris Henry from the starting lineup against Wales is a criminal offence – the man has been just about the best openside in the HEC in the last 12 months, and offers badly-needed groundhog abilities.  It reinforces the feeling that we stumble across our best selections when injury forces the coach’s hand.  An unbalanced back-row has proved our Achilles heel very recently; but has that key learning been absorbed?

The halves pick themselves by now, and Conor Murray has able deputies in the 2 Leinster scrummies and Paul Marshall. Murray’s delivery was excellent against Argentina, and he is having a good season. Outhalf is a weakness on the depth front – Sexton might be the best outhalf in the Northern Hemisphere, but he killed Bambi we can only hope the Racing business is not a distraction, for we have nothing else. The great Radge is past the stage of relevance at HEC level, never mind Test, and it’s too much to expect him to revert to 2009 form – an outhalf who will be contributing through RWC15 should be given a chance to get some experience, be it Paddy Jackson, Ian Madigan or Ian Keatley.

The centre partnership is still as you were – neither will be around in 2.5 years time, but no-one has yet demanded their shirt, with the possible exception of Luke Marshall, who we feel might have started a game or 2 were he not on the treatment table. Keith Earls has had a solid season at 13 for Munster, but didn’t take his chance in November – he’s still first deputy to You-Know-Who, but still deputy for now. Ferg is another option at centre, as are Dave McSharry and Darren Cave.

Wing is where we have the nicest selection issue – our best and most consistent wing of the Kidney era, Tommy Bowe, is out, but we can still afford to have Luke Fitzgerald and Ferg out of the twenty-three. We think Gilroy and Zebo are uber-exciting, but maybe both a bit too similar – we’d have like to seen Fitzy picked for Wales, but it’s a good problem to have.

With Bob back in the mix, the 15 shirt is nailed down. Simon Zebo provided a creditable alternative in November, and Robbie Henshaw has come right up to the cusp of the squad. Jared Payne will be eligible in 18 months too – this is another position of strength for Ireland.

So how will they do, in the latest make-or-break tournament? The France and England at home schedule is one which served us well in 2007 and 2009 – we always feel we can beat Wales on our day, and Scotland and Italy are bunnies right now. All of which is both a blessing and curse, for anything less than 4 wins isn’t good enough.

It all hinges on the Wales game – win, and we have momentum going into the England game, and should be beginning to whisper about France meaning Grand Slam. Lose, and we’re pretty much cooked – we could end up with just 2 wins and 2 home defeats. The Puma game in November carried hints of a new style, dictated by that new leadership corps, the Sexton, Heaslip, Ryan, Kearney group. It is essential Ireland take that up and go into these games with a coherent plan, for if we don’t, we are snookered. The lack of a definable “Ireland” style has undoubtedly contributed to our inconsistency, where we can go from nearly beating NZ to losing by a record margin in a week.

Another habit we want to break is the slow-starting one – against Wales, New Zealand and South Africa last year, we began series as if in a trance, and never recovered poise. If we lose to Wales, Deccie is basically a lame duck, and who knows how the season is going to pan out. Win, and as we said above, possibilities are endless.

If we can do both of the above (win, with a definable style), we are showing development as a team, and perhaps Kidney is the man to being us through to RWC15. If we do win 4 games with a near-miss on the other one, that’s definite progress, and something to build on. We may be behind the rest in this cycle (except Scotland), but a good tournament will go a long way to changing that.

It’s a pity the first match is the key one – a nice little trip to Embra to start would be perfect, but it’s pretty much win or bust from this Saturday. Regretably, we are leaning towards bust as the more likely outcome – a one-off performance against a disinterested Puma XV does not override the dross which preceded it in 2012. In addition, we have picked a side with no openside flanker to go in against a Welsh team with 2 of the best in the Northern Hemisphere. Wales will try and kick the ball long and in-play and force us into a succession of rucks. Given Henry isn’t playing, we will need to go into the game with a clear and executable gameplan in order to win – that seems unlikely to us, based on recent history.

The next game, home to England, is an obvious bounceback opportunity – we have a good record in recent years against the English and owe them one for Court-gate in Twickers last year. The English side is young and exciting, but ours is experienced and occasionally clinical – we think it has the makings of a memorable win. We’ll beat Scotland, but then lose to the French – we’ve a serious mental block against them, and the new-look snazzy bleus will fancy themselves – home loss. A wrap-up win in Rome on Paddy’s weekend will draw the curtain on the memorable but over-long Declan Kidney era, and it’s back to the drawing board for RWC15.

by whiffofcordite on January 30, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Deccie Kidney, Ireland, RWC11, RWC15, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 30, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/30/tipping-point-2/

Ireland Team Announced

Deccie named his team for Ireland’s opening Six Nations game in the Millennium today and it contained few surprises. From the Argentina game in November, the changes are:

  • Fit-again Bob in for the injured Tommy Bowe, with Simon Zebo reverting to wing
  • Fit-again BOD takes back the hallowed 13 shirt from Keith Earls, who didn’t stake a strong claim for it in the Autumn
  • Fit-again Rory Best comes in for injured Richardt Strauss (this change would have happened anyway, in our opinion)
  • Fit-again Sean O’Brien is preferred to Chris Henry, with Peter O’Mahony moving to openside

So, to summarize, 4 of the apostles who were injured are now fit again and come back in. Ireland look more experienced and familiar as a result, and at least its interesting.

Are these the right calls? Not for us.

Wales, like last year, will look to kick long and in-field and contest every breakdown feverishly with twin groundhogs Justin Tipuric and Sam Warburton – and we are going in without an openside. Henry, who has been far and away the best 7 in Ireland for the last 2 years with a good November series under his belt, is on the bench. We risk losing the breakdown battle and initiative to a Welsh team with a backline who can punish you – this is a poor selection.

On the wing, we have gone for the young and exciting option – we’ll get plenty of opportunities to see Gilroy and Zebo with ball in hand as they run back Welsh bombs, that’s for sure. But we feel their skillsets are very similar – both are out and out touchline huggers, pacy with an eye for the tryline. Zebo is better at finding space, while Gilroy’s dancing feet and NFL-style pirouettes make him slippery in contact. Neither is adept and coming off their wing looking for that killer line to break through, or even to bosh into contact and set up a move. Bowe is brilliant at this, and Andy Trimble performs this role for Ulster, but we would have picked Luke Fitzgerald, who looks electric on his return from injury, over Gilroy.

But that’s a marginal call – we can see why Gilroy has been selected. The flanker call, on the other hand, is a  clanger – we are giving the Welsh free reign at ruck-time. If we have a gameplan to keep the ball in hand and away from their breakdown-dominating flankers, great, because we’ll need one.

The subs bench contains Declan Fitzpatrick, who has played around 120 minutes this season – there was no other option, as anyone who saw the Wolfhounds scrum accelerating backwards on Friday will understand. Michael Bent needs to spend some time with Leinster and get back on track.

The team in full:

15 Rob Kearney 14 Craig Gilroy 13 Brian O’Driscoll 12 Gordon D’Arcy 11 Simon Zebo 10 Jonathan Sexton 9 Conor Murray 1Cian Healy 2 Rory Best 3 Mike Ross 4 Mike McCarthy 5 Donnacha Ryan 6 Peter O’Mahony 7 Sean O’Brien 8 Jamie Heaslip.

Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin 17 David Kilcoyne 18 Declan Fitzpatrick 19 Donncha O’Callaghan 20 Chris Henry 21 Eoin Reddan 22 Ronan O’Gara 23 Keith Earls

by whiffofcordite on January 29, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Deccie Kidney, Ireland, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 29, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/29/ireland-team-announced/

The Ins and Outs of the Johnny Sexton saga

On Friday afternoon, our Twitter timeline was like a morgue.  It was as if there was a death in the family.  Johnny Sexton, the icon of Leinster rugby, would not be staying with his boyhood province, instead signing a lucrative contract with flash Parisian moneybags Racing Metro.  After being knocked out of Europe the previous weekend, it felt like Armageddon for Leinster fans.

Now that we’ve had the weekend to process the bad news, hopefully we can offer a bit more perspective than on Friday, when Palla was tweeting through the tears… here’s how we see it.

1. It’s bad news for Ireland

Some commentators felt the move might actually be positive for Irish rugby; Sexton will hardly disimprove in Paris, and it elevates Madigan to a probable starting role at Leinster.  More Irish fly-halves will be starting big games.  Such an argument looks like a curious emphasis of quantity over quality.  It is great to have as many Irish 10s playing high level rugby as possible, but surely it is most important that by far the best we have is playing in Ireland?  If you don’t put much stock in the IRFU’s ploy of keeping the players under their central watch, then fine, but the players appear to appreciate their game-time being managed (to an extent) and it has hardly done Sexton’s test career any harm that he plays his club rugby with Dorce outside, as well as the other cabal of Leinster internationals.  The net effect is a negative for Irish rugby in general; we’d be better off with Sexton at Leinster. Plus, as we will discuss in more detail below, this could open the doors to other players leaving – which is definitely bad for Ireland.

2. The IRFU has a case to answer

Without being inside the negotiating rooms, we cannot pinpoint the blame on any one individual or body, but at the very least, the IRFU have a lot to answer for on this one.  How did they let the jewel in their crown get away?  Did they undervalue just how good and marketable a player Sexton is?  Going by Thornley and O’Reilly and his godfather Billy Keane, Sexton’s camp were unhappy that contract negotiations started so late and that the IRFU’s initial offer was no higher than Sexton currently earns.  Although he signed a two-year contract last time around, we understand that those negotiations were fraught, with Sexton unhappy at the IRFU’s offer of less than O’Gara (his reserve at the time) was earning.  An overspill of these bad vibes was probably brought into these negotiations.  The IRFU would not have been required to necessarily match the Racing offer; Sexton wanted parity with the top paid players in the country – a fair evluation of his ability, then –  but the IRFU would not meet him there.

The money men at 4 Lansdowne Road may not be completely displeased that they won’t have to pay big bucks to Sexton but still have him for Ireland, but that’s an extraordinally short-sighted view. Coming as it did in the week when Puma pulled the plug on their current kit deal, we should consider this – Sexton’s image rights are no longer controlled by the union, meaning any kit manufacturer will lower their offer commensurate with the fact that one of Ireland’s most marketable assets cannot promote their gear.

3. The central contracting system has its flaws

The central contracting system has served Ireland well, no question.  But its shortcomings were exposed here.  Leinster were the party with the most to lose, but they could do nothing, while the IRFU negotiated with the player.  Joe Schmidt must be seething; he has lost his best player, the cornerstone of his team, because of the slipshod work of others.  Just imagine.  Something is wrong in a system where interests and ability to act are so misaligned. And, to this point…

4. The IRFU’s relationship with the provinces must be better managed

Six months ago we blogged that the future success of Irish rugby depended on the powers that be’s ability to dovetail the provinces’ requirements with those of the national team.  Instead, what we have is a situation where the mission for the year is very much about ensuring that the national team is seen by all as the top dog.  Would this have entered Johnny Sexton’s thinking?  Probably.  There has been radio silence since the PR disaster that was the announcement of new player succession rules, but assuming they’re still going ahead, how confident could Sexton be that Leinster would be able to recruit the top-class second row they need to be competitive at the sharp end next season?  The IRFU’s determination to ensure the national team is not usurped in the fans’ minds as Numero Uno could end up hurting themselves as much as anyone.

5. The door is open for others

We can’t know yet if Sexton’s departure will be the first of many, but certainly it opens the door.  Cian Healy and Rob Kearney have not yet signed up for next season.  Kearney has been on regional airwaves describing his shock at the news.  Sexton’s move will no doubt lead those players to consider just how much a force Leinster can be without their great fly-half.  Compounding this, French clubs may now become encouraged.  The Irish provinces have yielded slim pickings over the years, with Clermont and Toulouse apparently coveting Sexton, but wary of being used as bargaining tools.  Such powerhouses will surely have found their interest piqued by this week’s transfer news. The aforementioned players are of course from Leinster, where there appeared to be genuine shock at how Luke Fitzgerald was cut from the payroll when injured – careers are short and Pandora’s Box is open.

One man we are genuinely concerned about is Sean O’Brien – amazing as it seems, one of our most important players is not currently on a central contract. His current Leinster deal ends next season, so one can expect the union to start discussions in December – if you were a French club, wouldn’t you make discrete contact in advance? O’Brien has many reasons to stay in Leinster, but you can bet that grá for the Union who haven’t made him an offer he can’t refuse is not one of them – they had betterget this one right.

6. Madigan deserves his chance

There’s already speculation that Leinster will scour the southern hemisphere for a fly-half, but this would be a bad move.  The one positive that comes out of this is the solving of the Madigan Riddle, also known as What Do You Do With a Problem Like Madeegan.  While Madigan still has a way to go to get to Sexton’s consummate level, at the very least his impressive performances in blue over the last two years have earned him the right to at least a season as first choice 10.  At his best he’s a thrilling talent with an eye for the tryline, a breaking threat and a sublime pass, and could prove himself to be the second-best 10 in the country if he can improve his decision-making and kicking from hand.  A Shaun Berne-type signing as back-up seems more appropriate, and it’s a pity that Paul Warwick has just been snapped up by Worcester; he would have been ideal. Now that George Ford is taking his promising talents to Oooooooooooooohh Bath, perhaps a move for Beaver is in order?

7. Sexton should see out the season

There’s a worthwhile argument that Leinster’s future must start today with as much invested in Madigan from now, including any Pro12 or Amlin knock-out games.  But Sexton has earned the right not to be treated as a shop-bought commodity and should remain Leinster’s first-choice 10 for the remainder of his contract.  Plus, respect must be paid to the remaining competitions in which Leinster will compete, which means giving themselves the best possible chance of winning them with the best team on the pitch.  Besides, with the Six Nations starting, Madigan will be afforded plenty of Pro12  starts over the coming months in any case.

8. Leinster must be positive and move on

It’s devastating for the fans and certainly a blow to the team to lose so great a player.  But wallowing in disappointment will achieve little.  Leinster’s squad can take comfort by recalling that their recent success was born out of adversity, and their hardness won through difficult times.  They have overcome worse than losing a key player before.  Furthermore, minds should be cast back to the summer of 2009, when a seemingly irreplacable Aussie backrow made his way back down under.  It seemed like the end of the world, but his loss was barely noticed following the emergence of a certain Tullow native with a penchant for smashing holes all over the pitch.

With this in mind, Proper Church’s tweets of Madigan with the meme ‘Relax. I’ve got this’ were a good start.

9. Bon Chance, Johnnny Sexton

Leinster fans in particular will be disappointed, hurt even, by the decision.  Some will call Sexton a mercenary and that he’s moved for the money.  But really, unless any of those people are Johnny Sexton, or Fintan Drury, or Johnny Sexton’s fiance, it’s impossible to know exactly what his motives are for leaving.  Many players have flirted with France before, most notably Brian O’Driscoll.  But none have been in Sexton’s position, where he has won three Heineken Cup medals with his hometown team.  BO’D stayed at Leinster out of a feeling of unfinished business.  Sexton may feel it’s as good a time as any for a fresh challenge.  To him, we say, bon chance.

by whiffofcordite on January 28, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Jonny Sexton, Leinster

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 28, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/28/the-ins-and-outs-of-the-johnny-sexton-saga/

Missing Muller

Ulster might have reached the HEC knock-out stages for a third successive year, but there was a rather anti-climactic feel to their qualification due to the lack of a home quarter-final, and the last two underwhelming performances at Ravers will have gone a long way towards it. They looked nailed-on for a home QF after round three, and it wasn’t supposed to be this way after that memorable win in Northampton.

After the disappointing loss in the return fixture with the Saints came the failure to get a bonus point at home to Glasgae. Now that might sound presumptuous, but Ulster should have scored four tries – and failure to do so put them behind Saracens (and Toulon) in the final rankings. The dirty win in Castres was about as good as they were going to get, and winning games in France is a tough habit to get into – so that’s a plus, but the Glasgow game was a disappointment.

They were let down by a curious helter-skelter panicky second quarter when they threw the ball around like confetti in minging conditions instead of sticking it up the jumper and trying to control it better, then a third quarter where they completely switched off. It took a few changes in the pack and the introduction of Paul Marshall to snap them back into gear – and two tries promptly followed.

Although Ulster might be able to replicate some of the lineout work of Johann Muller with a combination of NWJMB and Robbie Diack, they were unable to replace the captaincy skills and leadership qualities Muller brings to the table. There is no way the former Springbok would have allowed Ulster to take the ball out of the tight in the second quarter when in the Glasgae 22.

The absence of Muller was compounded by the ongoing unavailability of Fez and injury to Dan Tuohy – Ulster lost 3 cornerstones of their pack and couldn’t replace their influence. Chris Henry had a good game and was, as usual, the lynchpin of Ulster, but Rory Best and John Afoa were quiet – too quiet. The failure to get a grip on the game until late on was ultimately their undoing – this was an average Glasgae side and, conditions allowing, Ulster needed to slap them down early and then milk tries. And they couldn’t do it.

A comparison of the three games where Muller started and the three he didn’t are revealing:

  • Muller starts: Played 3 (2 away, 1 home), Points difference 14-0, Try difference 9-2
  • Muller doesn’t start: Played 3 (1 away, 2 home), Points difference 9-5, Try difference 3-2

Of course, Ulster had many more injuries than just Muller, but the shaky lineout and general frenzy indicate that Muller was missed more than most.

Thankfully for Ulster, the HEC knock-out stages are somewhat of a new tournament, and one can expect them to have a full selection by then (injuries will be managed with an early-April start in mind) with the exception of Tommy Bowe.

If Saracens switch the game to Wembley or Twickers or some other giant stadium, it will make the task easier, but Ulster have a mountain to climb that they have helped make themselves.

by whiffofcordite on January 24, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Johann Muller, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 24, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/24/missing-muller/

Gallic Shrug

There was an air of inevitability about Munster’s five-try qualifying haul on Sunday.  Not even Munster’s most ardent supporters – heck, not even Frankie Sheahan – would claim there was anything miraculous about it, or hold it up against famous last-round wins against Sale or Gloucester.

Why?  Because we’ve become accustomed to the middle tier French rugby clubs capitulating in the latter rounds of the Cup.  When Racing gave up a generous lead at home to Saracens the week before, Leinster’s goose was more or less cooked.  For some – Leinster fans anyway – it resulted in a slightly unsatisfactory finale to the pool stages.  How much more exciting would it have been if Munster really had it put up to them, as Leinster did in Exeter?  That’s not to discredit Munster.  As discussed in Monday’s post, they had their destiny in their own hands and did what they had to do; they deserve their place in the last eight.

The question is, can anything be done to ensure sides remain competitive to the last?  Not really.  Sure, you could try to impose fines on teams for putting out weakened sides, but in the days of heavy squad rotation, how do you define first and second choice players?  On the face of it, it looks unworkable.

And besides, it’s more a question of attitude than names on a team sheet.  Rugby is a game where bodies are put on the line; if one side’s need is greater, they will generally prevail, even if they possess less quality.  As an example, Toulon put out a strong line-up for Saturday’s do-or-go-through-anyway game against Montpellier, but it was clear from the moment Freddie Michalak gave a Gallic shrug and allowed the Montpellier centre to canter over the line for their first try, that their hearts weren’t in it.  The best that could be achieved would be that if the French are to be given concessions as part of the much-discussed tournament restructure, that they are reminded of their responsibilities to uphold the credibility of the competition.

In defence of the French sides, that they were more consistently competitive this year than in any in recent memory.  Clermont and Toulouse will always treat the tournament with respect and Biarritz – although rubbish these days – have a tradition of giving it a go.  Toulon, with their mega-squad, have no excuse for not being competitive, and took advantage of an easy pool to amble through to a home quarter-final.  It was only Montpellier’s second season in the competition, and while their pool was straightforward, they showed terrific commitment throughout and clearly wanted to make a statement, and qualified deservedly.

The performances of Castres and Racing were also committed for the most part.  Castes are notorious for throwing matches on the road, but they won in Glasgow and kept Northampton tryless in Franklin’s Gardens, a result which effectively took the Saints out of the competition.  Racing also won in Scotland, beat Munster at home and looked suitably gutted at the end of their hard-fought defeat to Saracens.  It was only once they were ruled out that they couldn’t be bothered.

If one thing could be done to improve the tournament, it’s a change to the lopsided seeding system, which counts the previous four years of tournament points to determine each side’s place in the rankings.  Four years is too many, and allows the deadwood to hang around for too long.  Cardiff were a top seed this year, which seems farcical.  They were losing semi-finalists four years ago, when Martyn Williams missed a penalty in a shoot-out against Leicester, but not many of the names that played that day are still on their books.  While there is no points system that can account for a loss of players to other clubs, two years’ ranking points appears more appropriate, and if the ranking coefficient included an element of domestic league performance, then all the better.

by whiffofcordite on January 23, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Cardiff, France, HEC, Leinster, Munster

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 23, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/23/gallic-shrug/

Regrets, They’ll Have A Few

The champions are out of Europe at the pool stages.  If that sounds pretty ignominious, then it probably is.  Sure, there were mitigating circumstances in a hefty injury list and a tough pool, but them’s the breaks and they weren’t the only team with injured players or good teams to contend with.  It’ll be especially gut-wrenching that the team to edge them out of the knockouts are their arch rivals, Munster, a team they would believe themselves to be better than.  Harlequins will be happier to be facing Munster than a rejuvenated Leinster that has belatedly sparked into life since getting a proper backline on the pitch.  But, hey, that’s Heineken Cup rugby.

Leinster can at least console themselves that they kept up their half of the bargain by securing the 10 match points they needed in the final two rounds.  That they did so in a swashbuckling style reminiscent of the last two seasons is reason enough to believe that they are not a busted flush yet, and that  their premature exit should not be seen as a serious demise.  But to be entering the final rounds relying on the middle-tier French clubs for favours – especially once their own fates have been sealed – is never going to be a recipe for success.  Leinster have only themselves to blame.

While it’s tempting to look at the possibility that they left a few tries out there against both Scarlets and Exeter, in truth the damage was done in rounds one to four.  Again, many will look to the double-header with Clermont, but given the backline Leinster had out in both games (Goodman at 12, and every other player from 11-15 playing out of their best position) and the nature of Clermont’s sense of unfinished business, it is understandable that they should lose both games.  Just one more point would have left Leinster’s fate in their own hands, and the opening week fiasco, where they sleepwalked to a fortuitous, tryless win over an Exeter which conceded seven tries at home to Clermont the following week was the one that got away.  To look at it more thematically, Leinster will rue that a misfiring lineuot proved expensive right through the pool stages.

No such concerns on the face of it for Ulster, but in having to go away to Saracens, they have made their possible passage to the final more difficult than it should have been.  They, too, will have cause for regret, in particular in taking their eye off the ball against Northampton in round four.  Having slaughtered the Saints in Franklin’s Gardens it looks as if Ulster may have got a bit carried away with themselves in the build-up to the return leg, and paid a heavy price.  Even still, a single extra point would have reversed the quarter-final match venue and as such, the awful third quarter in which they allowed Glasgow to dominate in Pool 5 left them one try short of what would have been a crucial bonus point.

By contrast, Munster will reflect that they are happy to be still in the competition after somehow squeezing out of a pool in which they never really impressed.  They can look back on the ten minute salvage operation against Edinburgh at home as the point that made all the difference to their campaign.  With one try on the board after 70 minutes, it looked set to be a disappointing afternoon at Thomond Park, but Paddy Butler’s introduction provided a spark and they manufactured three tries in the dying minutes, against admittedly hapless opposition.  They’re unlikely to do much in the knock-out stages, where the Anglo-French axis look set to dominte, but how Leinster must envy them.

by whiffofcordite on January 21, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 21, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/21/regrets-theyll-have-a-few/

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