Peter O’Mahony, the Rage Virus and Statistics

Ireland’s backrow is most confusing in its current iteration – it appears unbalanced (what’s new), consisting of an 8, a 6.5 and a 6/7/8 (delete as appropriate), and appears unable to grab a game by the scruff of the neck.  Far from the traditional roles one associates with the 6, 7 and 8, Ireland’s appears to be a jumble of roles.  Now, we’re not against fluidity of systems, but given Ireland’s recent results, it has to be asked – does the current backrow work?  For the record it looks like this:

No.6 Peter O’Mahony

Typical role of number 6: tackle anything that moves, truck dirty slow ball around the corner and try to turn it into quicker ball, add ballast to mauls, possible tail of lineout option

Prototype: Dan Lydiate, Stephen Ferris

Role of O’Mahony (as we understand it). Standing wide between the centres, looking to join up the play and make rangy breaks in midfield by handing off defenders.  Important part of lineout.

No. 7 Sean O’Brien

Typical role of number 7: arrive first at as many rucks as possible, win turnovers, track ball carriers, take and give offloads to bring continuity to play

Prototype: Sir Ruchie, David Pocock, Justin Tipuric

Role of O’Brien (as we understand it): primary ball carrier. Relied upon to repeatedly carry slow ball over the gainline and deliver huge tackle count in defence.

No.8 Jamie Heaslip

Typical role of number 8: set up attacks off the base of scrum, carry ball, usually allowed a little more free reign to stand wide from ruck to get ball in space, should have good hands, often a lineout option

Prototype: Sergio Parisse, Louis Picamoles

Role of Jamie Heaslip (as we understand it): used primarily in tight, where he is depended upon to clear rucks and win turnovers.  Seldom asked to carry the ball.

It’s certainly a far cry from, say, Wales’ uber-traditional backrow where the 6 (Lydiate / Jones), 7 (Warburton / Tipuric) and 8 (Felatau) are outstanding in the traditional primary roles.  As a unit, Ireland’s backrow performed well against Wales, were hopelessly outmuscled against England and did enough against Scotland to deliver sufficient clean ball and go-forward to win the game, which failed to happen for various reasons.  Looking at the individuals, we’d say O’Mahony was good against Wales, ordinary against England and poor against Scotland.  Heaslip was good against Scotland, poor against England and average against Wales.  O’Brien has probably been our best forward, heroically committed and hardworking – with the caveat that he has given away too many penalties.

Any time we try to have a rational debate, it degenerates quickly into bitter provincial bickering – Munster folk will point to Jamie Heaslip’s relative lack of visibility while Leinster and Ulster folk will decry Peter O’Mahony’s lack of impact, and lament the absence of the glorious Fez. Sean O’Brien is largely spared criticism, thankfully, for if we agreed on nothing, this would be a most depressing state of affairs.  The oddly fitting roles probably don’t help here.  We expect our 6 to be a tackling machine, and our 8 to be making big plays, but neither seems to be the case.

The statistics from ESPN Scrum bear out the above thesis.

Carrying: Heaslip has carried for 27 cumulative metres over three matches.  O’Mahony and O’Brien have over 90m each, with O’Mahony averaging over 4m a carry.  He made an eye-catching 65m from nine carries in his best game of the series, against Wales.  Carrying the ball further away from the ruck allows him more space to make metres, while O’Brien is asked to carry slow ball repeatedly.  He has made 44 attempted carries so far.

Tackling: O’Brien appears something of a workaholic, adding a huge tackle count to his carrying ability.  He has 28 successful tackles to his name.  Heaslip, as we’d expect given his responsibility close to the ruck, leads the tackle count on 30.  O’Mahony’s tackle count is somewhat dwarfed by the other two, on 13 over three games, again reflecting his tendency to  play further out from the ruck.

Discipline: O’Mahony has a reputation as a penalty machine, but he’s only cost his team two so far this series.  O’Brien has never shaken off his tendency not to roll away quickly enough in the tackle area, and has coughed up six penalties.  Heaslip – usually a well disciplined player – has cost his team five penalties so far.

Lineout: This has not been a vintage series for the Irish lineout, but O’Mahony’s skills have seen him claim seven catches.  Heaslip gets thrown up reasonably often too – he’s won four, and O’Brien has two.

ESPN doesn’t provide numbers on what Donncha O’Callaghan fans might refer to as the unseen work – clearing rucks, shoving hard in a maul, winning a choke tackle turnover, slowing down opposition ball at a ruck.  Nor do the stats on ESPN tell the whole story of any action.  Keith Earls’ break and non-pass gave him huge metres carried, but many of them were thrown away by failing to the right thing once he’d done the hard bit. 

For this weeks France game, we are going to go through with a fine tooth comb (rather like the Mole did for kicking against England and chart (and, crucially, grade in terms of positive impact) each action of each backrow forward, specifically:

  • Tackles
  • Carries (number and metres)
  • Rucking (clearing out and otherwise)
  • Lineout takes and steals
  • Other good actions: Linebreaks, key passes, turnovers won, tries
  • Other bad actions: Turnovers lost, penalties, free-kicks, missed tackles

We expect that O’Brien will have the most tackles and carries, and Heaslip the most ruck clearances, and we don’t expect to see the same quantity of dog-work from O’Mahony. If he is to stand in wider channels let’s hope he can make his ball skills and rangy carrying ability tell and deliver serious metres in open space and keep the play alive.  In general we’d prefer to see him involved in the action more than he is, but we know he’s capable of coming up with big plays.  We’ve a suspicion his yardage is a little flattered by his standing so wide, so we’ll see if that’s borne out.  One thing’s for sure, he’s a very different player to what his astonishing media profile suggests; we’re far from convinced that he’s a no-backward-step warrior that he’s portrayed as in the press, and we’ve already aired our Good Face theory.

We have to come out and admit that we find O’Mahony to be a most curious player. He can do the hard things brilliantly – zipping passes like Strings in his peak, and taking balls from the air or off his bootlaces with consumate ease. Yet, for a blindside, his tackling is largely absent, his carrying inconsistent, and his breakdown work unseen (to coin a phrase). In short, we think he doesn’t work hard enough.  He’s yet to deliver 10 tackles in a match in any of his eight starts for Ireland, and in four games has combined single digit metres with single digit carries.  On his day, however, he can be impactful, as in this season’s win against Wales. 

He has not yet been forced to nail down a jumper for Munster, never had his attitude and play questioned, and never really been subject to any media criticism whatsoever. The Mole opined that some time at the coalface nailing down a position and learning about himself might be the best thing for him – we feel he just coasts too much, but that seems to be out of tune with a lot of opinions, so we felt this was a puzzle worth delving a little deeper into.

What we’d like to see from Heaslip is an improvement in his carrying, which looked pretty marshmallowy in the first two games of the Six Nations, before improving against Scotland.  And as for O’Brien, well, we’d almost like to see him carry less.  If he’s making over 20 carries in a match it’s a surefire sign that Ireland’s Plan A of Give The Ball to O’Brien has been jettisoned for Plan B: Give the Ball to O’Brien.

More than simply analysing each player’s individual performances, we want to try and gain some understanding as to whether Ireland’s backrow functions as a unit.  It’s highly unconventional in that the role of the players is so at odds with what we traditionally expect from each shirt number.  Are we suffering as a result of that?  Are we getting the best out of the three players?  Do we have the right men selected?  Would we be better off with a more traditional 6 and 7, allowing Heaslip to carry more ball as he did three years ago?  Is his carrying good enough to merit that role?

So on Sunday night we’ll sit down with a bottle of wine and pour over the tape.  By far the biggest issue we expect to have is that O’Mahony and Donnacha Ryan look rather similar.  Let’s hope we can tell them apart enough to get some accurate stats.  Results will be up early next week.

Power of Three Plus One

Gatty has a history of throwing verbal bombs around (the Welsh hate the Irish more than anyone, for example), and he was at it again last week. The rambunctuous Kiwi, and Lions head coach, claimed that the dastardly English players were making his life more difficult by – gasp – playing better than their Welsh, Scottish and Irish counterparts. His reason? The Aussies have a particular like for poking fun at the whinging Poms, and it would make his life more difficult if he had to pick loads of the English.

This deserves greater scrutiny for a number of reasons – do they, does it matter, and why was he saying it anyway?

Gatland is a Kiwi hooker who played for New Zealand (though not as an All Black) – he’s a proud New Zealander, and with that comes the absolute conviction that you know more about rugby than anyone. Stick your head above the parapet and claim otherwise, and they’ll ruthlessly target you until they are proven right. Ask Quade Cooper – after the Wallabies won the 2011 Tri-Nations, the Kiwis realized they were actually a genuine threat for the RWC, and ruthlessly targeted their key player, NZ-born charmer Cooper, until he mentally broke. Head coach Smiler Henry condoned the shocking public abuse being doled out to Cooper, and it still leaves a rather nasty taste in the mouth.

That’s how New Zealand reacts to challenges, but not Australia. Australians are a sunny, optimistic bunch, yet they know they have no right to beat the likes of New Zealand and South Africa, or even England. They feel that, when they do so, they do it through hard work and intelligent play, but they have no divine right to do so. Sure, the Aussies don’t like the Whinging Poms, but remember when England pitched up in Australia for RWC03 as not only challengers, but favourites? The equivalent to the Cooper public destruction was a hand-painted sign saying “Boring Rugby Team Trains Here” outside their base. Is that it? The Aussies make a big play of their English rivalry, but deep down enjoy the joust and challenge as much as winning.

If a Lions team pitched up with 20 English on the plane, or 5, the Aussie reaction wouldn’t be much different. They would respect the best players the Northern Hemisphere has to offer, and concoct a specific plan to beat them – again, they would see themselves as having no innate right to win, but as having a (big) challenge to overcome. They’d have as much fun poking at the Welsh and the English.

Plus there is the matter of the character of the current English team – no Big Bad Johnno, no metronomic Wilko, no trash-talking Matt Dawson. The Stuart Lancaster-coached England player is typically humble, quiet, driven and moderately talented. Even Chris Ashton made a point of commiserating with Simon Zebo as he limped off the pitch last week. They are hard to hate, and easy to respect. One senses the Aussies would see them as a worthy and fun adversary – it’s hard to imagine that Brad Barritt would get much traction as Public Enemy Number One.

So why would Gatty feel the need to specifically take a shot at the English, even under the questionable guise of team-building? The Lions concept is all about the Power of Four and all in it together – it’s pretty dumb to risk alienating half your squad before you’ve even announced it just to pre-empt some imaginary Wallaby response. Gatty has been at pains to differentiate himself from Graham Henry, the only other Southern Hemisphere Lions coach, whose tour in 2001 descended into Power of Austin Healey as the nations split up.  He’s claiming he’s really a Northern Hemisphere coach since he has spent so long here, and in fact, he is in a unique position to straddle the rugger globe, which is why he’s the perfect Lions coach!

But all he has really done has written the headline for the like of Stephen Jones if something goes wrong, and made life more difficult for himself. Would you really pick a squad on the basis that it would annoy the opposition less? Gatty would do well to remember the atmosphere in the last Lions tour – Geech spent years talking up the Lions concept and engendered the team and group dynamic which we are going to need to win a series, and Gatty made that one little bit harder with his comments this week.

It’s ALIVE!

Lethargy for the grand old tournament has been growing in recent years, with the Heineken Cup more colourful, varied, approachable and enjoyable in an increasing number of fans’ eyes.  But this opening weekend blew the cobwebs away.  We had been told by all comers that the refereeing ws going to be positive, punishing those whose influence at the breakdown was negative.  They seemed to get their message across, because the three games were all fantastic, with all teams looking to attack.  It’s early days, but it’s shaping up to be the best Six Nations since 2007, or perhaps even better yet.

Ireland are up and running

It was a hugely commendable performance from Ireland.  Last year, the team sat off Wales and let them dictate the game.  Not this.  Ireland imposed their game plan on Wales.  Given the bizarrely fluctuating performance level of this team over the last three seasons, backing up the Agentina win with another good performance was absolutely critical.  They have now done that.  It creates a sense of building momentum, underlined by the manner win which Murray and Sexton appear to have developed an understanding of how each other plays.  It has taken them some time, but they are such good players, that it has been worth waiting for.  Now they just have to do it again, against England.

Kidney Casts off the Shackles

We were wrong and Kate McEvoy was right.  Deccie nailed his team selection and tactics this week.  O’Mahony utterly vindicated his selection over 50 minutes of barnstorming rugger.  Gilroy’s kicking was loose at times, but he put in some huge hits in defence.  A year ago, you feel Kidney would have played the ‘we know what he can do’ card and picked Earls on the wing, but he took the risk, and was rewarded.  We still have a preference for Luke Fitzgerald in the back-three, but Gilroy ultimately delivered for his coach.  Kidney has been wilfully conservative at times over the last few seasons, but with his contract renewal hinging on the outcome of this series, he has nothing to lose and appears willing to gamble a bit more.

If Rob Howley had got his own selection right, and picked the in-form Jason Tipuric from the start, perhaps things might have been different.  But he didn’t, and it wasn’t.

Ireland have no bench

It took Deccie years to get the hang of the whole ‘bench’ thing, but in the last 24 months he got the knack for it.  Just don’t expect him to use it much this year; because we don’t really have one.  Ireland did have a good bench over the last couple of season, but that was when Reddan was making a strong case for selection and ROG could still influence a test match; neither is the case this year.  Backrow is the only place where Ireland can bring on somebody to change the dynamic of the game, with Henry bringing something different to either of the starting flankers.  O’Callaghan can replace tiring legs late in games, but he’s not going to really alter the balance of a match.  Let’s not even talk about the front row.

The single biggest threat to Ireland’s hopes of winning the championship is fatigue to the likes of Murray, Sexton, Best, Ryan ,Healy and of course Ross, who will all be required to put in 70-80 minute shifts in all five games.  England, by contrast, have a bench stacked with impact men – Danny Care, Courtney Lawes, James Haskell (whatever you make of them).  Dare Kidney revisit his famous squad rotation in Murrayfield or Rome, and rest one or two of his key men should Ireland be closing in on a possible grand slam?  Let’s cross that bridge when if we come to it.

Kidney does have some options to give more oomph to his bench.  Earls hasn’t impressed recently in green (although we wouldn’t write off his hopes of being a test centre just yet), and Fitzgerald is worth considering for the 23 shirt.  Paul Marshall performs the role of impact sub with gusto at Ulster, and is in far better form than Reddan.  There are other options at 10, with Madigan the most enticing, but none have any test rugby experience, and it’s a safe bet that Sexton will accumulate 400 championship minutes this season, injury permitting.

Simon Zebo – the new Ugo Monye?

Yep, that’s  what we thought a year ago.  Joke’s on us!  Last year Zebo looked exciting, scored lots of tries, but was pretty raw.  We questioned whether he had enough football skills to be the real deal, or was he just a straight-line runner in the Ugo Monye mould.  The extent to which he has improved his game over the last year is remarkable, and that flick will feature on highlights reels for years to come.  Thankfully it got the reward it deserved with Church bashing over the line from close quarters. Zebo could/should/will (delete as appropriate) be the poster boy for Irish rugby for years to come, provided those dastardly Frenchies don’t steal him, as they tried to this year.

Forza Italia

What a win!  What a match!  Italy were simply wonderful.  They offloaded, they ran and they had Parisse.  Their fly-half, Lucky Luciano Orquera, played at a level he has probably never attained in his life, and everything came off.  Their ambition was laudable; they played to win the game and not just to keep the score down, as they have so often in the past.  In the 74th minute, protecting a narrow lead, they won a turnover and guess what? –they counter-attacked again.  They have a chance now to win two or even three matches, but must try and bring the same energy on the road as they do in Rome, which they’ve never really done before, in order to beat Scotland.

The game was brilliantly presided over by Nigel Owens, who communicated clearly and fairly, and with no shortage of his usual wit (‘I could have penalised any of eight of you’, he said at one point).  He looked utterly unflustered throughout, a man clearly enjoying himself in a high-pressure environment.

Missing Muller

Ulster might have reached the HEC knock-out stages for a third successive year, but there was a rather anti-climactic feel to their qualification due to the lack of a home quarter-final, and the last two underwhelming performances at Ravers will have gone a long way towards it. They looked nailed-on for a home QF after round three, and it wasn’t supposed to be this way after that memorable win in Northampton.

After the disappointing loss in the return fixture with the Saints came the failure to get a bonus point at home to Glasgae. Now that might sound presumptuous, but Ulster should have scored four tries – and failure to do so put them behind Saracens (and Toulon) in the final rankings. The dirty win in Castres was about as good as they were going to get, and winning games in France is a tough habit to get into – so that’s a plus, but the Glasgow game was a disappointment.

They were let down by a curious helter-skelter panicky second quarter when they threw the ball around like confetti in minging conditions instead of sticking it up the jumper and trying to control it better, then a third quarter where they completely switched off. It took a few changes in the pack and the introduction of Paul Marshall to snap them back into gear – and two tries promptly followed.

Although Ulster might be able to replicate some of the lineout work of Johann Muller with a combination of NWJMB and Robbie Diack, they were unable to replace the captaincy skills and leadership qualities Muller brings to the table. There is no way the former Springbok would have allowed Ulster to take the ball out of the tight in the second quarter when in the Glasgae 22.

The absence of Muller was compounded by the ongoing unavailability of Fez and injury to Dan Tuohy – Ulster lost 3 cornerstones of their pack and couldn’t replace their influence. Chris Henry had a good game and was, as usual, the lynchpin of Ulster, but Rory Best and John Afoa were quiet – too quiet. The failure to get a grip on the game until late on was ultimately their undoing – this was an average Glasgae side and, conditions allowing, Ulster needed to slap them down early and then milk tries. And they couldn’t do it.

A comparison of the three games where Muller started and the three he didn’t are revealing:

  • Muller starts: Played 3 (2 away, 1 home), Points difference 14-0, Try difference 9-2
  • Muller doesn’t start: Played 3 (1 away, 2 home), Points difference 9-5, Try difference 3-2

Of course, Ulster had many more injuries than just Muller, but the shaky lineout and general frenzy indicate that Muller was missed more than most.

Thankfully for Ulster, the HEC knock-out stages are somewhat of a new tournament, and one can expect them to have a full selection by then (injuries will be managed with an early-April start in mind) with the exception of Tommy Bowe.

If Saracens switch the game to Wembley or Twickers or some other giant stadium, it will make the task easier, but Ulster have a mountain to climb that they have helped make themselves.

Renaissance Man

Donncha O’Callaghan is the classic workhorse of a rugger team – for Munster and Ireland, he has consistently tackled himself to a standstill, while taking a back seat to the like of Paul O’Connell (and even Micko) when it comes to leadership and taking the team forward.

For a man who is among the most decorated in Irish history (2 HECs, Grand Slam, 2 Lions tours, 90Ireland caps), the general impression is of a follower, a man who needed the Axels and Paulies of this world to step up on his behalf.

This impression has, ironically, been fed by the man who coached him to his finest moments – master mind-bender Deccie. Deccie never tires of telling us how valuable Donncha is to the cause, how we are lucky – nay, blessed – to have not only Paul O’Connell and Micko, but Donncha as well! And his most famous faint praise of O’Callaghan has become the most notorious – that Donncha is in the team for his “unseen work”. We’re not sure what it is either, but it was used to mask declining tackle counts and effectiveness on the ground.

For his continued selection in Irish XVs for the last two years, Donncha has become something of a bête noire on these pages, mocked as Stakhanov – a reference to the way he is inevitably described by all and sundry – the dedicated pack mule who can take a back seat when it comes to decision making and tactics.

Broader skillsets from the likes of Dan Tuohy and Mike McCarthy were ignored for the safe option of Donncha, and it became somewhat of a yardstick for conservatism in selection. Recall as well Devin Toner having to call the lineouts on his debut, and the reason for our frustration becomes clearer.

By the end of last season, O’Callaghan looked a busted flush – short of impact, short of physicality and short of the kind of carrying ability modern locks can bring to the game – he had lost his Munster and Ireland jersey to Donnacha Ryan.

But a strange thing has happened – Rob Penney has come in to Munster with a vague idea of playing a different game than the traditional bish bash bosh they are famed for, and he has had his difficulties in implementation. Paul O’Connell has spent long spells injured and Ronan O’Gara has increasingly resorted to playing an old style kick for territory. The third survivor of the 2006 breakthrough, Donncha, has been a most impressive adherent to the new plan.

O’Callaghan derided himself as “Johnny Robot” for slavishly following coaches instructions, but this is remarkable – a man who rarely strayed more than 1 metre from a ruck regularly pops up on the wing and has even attempted a few offloads. In addition, he has actually upped the stakes physically – carry the ball into contact even slightly too upright, and Donncha will engineer a Munster scrum quicker than you can say “over-used phrase to describe forcing the opposition into a maul and getting the put-in to the resultant scrum”.

What’s more, the famed leadership qualities we assumed weren’t present have begun to assert themselves. In the build-up to the Embra game, Donncha was highly visible in the press telling all who would listen that, for all the grumbling about Rob Penney’s tactical revolution, it was the Munster players who weren’t executing, and blaming the boss was the easy way out. He delivered a powerful message to his underperforming colleagues – that the type of performance seen against Cardiff was simply unacceptable, and the onus was on them to deliver.

Munster have never been short of characters to deliver this kind of message – Jirry, POC, Quinny, Axel or Radge for example – but to see O’Callaghan deliver it was still something of a stunner.

So perhaps his bosses down the years have missed something of a trick when it comes to O’Callaghan, and it took a new broom in Munster to eke out hitherto-unseen leadership qualities. Or maybe he feels he needs to show example to some of his forwards. Or maybe he’s just having an Indian summer and Penney told him to do the presser.

Either way, it’s a most interesting and welcome development.  It’s also in stark contrast to the supposed leadership qualities being brought to bear by the other experienced campaigner in the team.  You guessed it: Radge!  Picked in the team for his wealth of experience, quite what he was doing kicking out at second rows we cannot know.  It wasn’t the first time this season ROG’s attitude towards the outcome of a game has looked somewhat feckless.  It might not be the worst thing for Munster if he is banned from the final pool game, or the Six Nations opener for that matter.

Munster Fly-Half Steers Team To Famous Victory

The good ship Heineken is cruising along nicely, and the hopeless rats are deserting at a cracking pace – after this weekend, the list of realistic quarter finalists stands at a desultory 10 – Ulster and Quins will surely go through alone; and while Toulon, Sarries and Clermont hold the whip hand in their pools, Montpellier, Munster and Leinster are still in touch and have definite best runners-up potential. In the Pool of Death, the Ospreys are virtually gone, leaving Toulouse and Leicester to fight for top spot, and also contest for a best runners-up spot. Racing Metro and Castres are still alive, but they would much prefer to do it in the Top14, and may see HEC progression as counter-productive – the cream is rising to the top.

It was a good weekend for Romanian and Spanish rugby – Bucharest’s win over Agen had echoes of the 80s, when the Mighty Oaks had the Frenchies’ number, and Declan Cusack’s Bizkaia Gernika did what their fellows Basques in Biarritz and Bayonne couldn’t, and won a game – kudos all round. Rather less encouraging was the performance of the representatives from some of European rugby’s more prominent countries – after 3 rounds of the HEC, all the Welsh, Scottish and Italian sides are out of contention for qualification. In a miserable, no win 7 loss weekend for the Pro12 Patsies, Hard-Scrummaging Scarlets and Glasgow’s losses at home to English debutants Exeter and French Euro-bunnies Castres were notable low points. For the second year in three, we will have no Welsh quarter-finalists, Embra’s success last year looks increasingly like a flash in the pan and Italy continues its wait for a knock-out representative – this is not a sustainable divvy-up of the spoils.

All week, we had heard the repeated mantra of the Europe-dominating ambition of Saracens – from the cheerleading media in Blighty talking up their chances in Thomond, to the cheerleading media in Tara Street looking to underpin Munster’s underdog credentials. In the event, their lack of ambition on the field was stunning – for a team with such an array of talented backs, they play a horrendous brand of rugby. It’s hard to credit that a backline containing the likes of Hodgson, Farrell, Strettle, Goode and Ashton can score just 9 tries in 10 Premiership games. Do the top brass at Saracens really think that the type of 10 man dross that was in vogue 4 years ago is really a realistic gameplan for HEC success? If they do, their “European ambition” is just like the Northampton pack – all talk and no trousers.

With Ulster odds-on to be among the top 4 seeds going into the HEC quarter-finals, and the ERC stipulation on a minimum 15,000 capacity for knock-out games, the race is on to get Ravers up to capacity by April. Ulster want nothing less than to win their pool in style, only to draw a best runner-up like their modern-day nemesis, Leinster, and have to effectively give up home advantage. Expect Christmas to be cancelled in Belfast – the quid pro quo will be a first HEC knock-out game at Ravers since January 1999 and a serious tilt at bringing the trophy to Ravers for the second time, and to Ireland for a remarkable seventh.

As for Leinster, yesterday’s game was pretty instructive – Leinster were as “there for the taking” as they are going to be, yet Clermont looked a little intimidated – there is no doubt the regular wins for the D4 goys over the Bananamen have got into their heads. If Leinster end up going back to the Marcel Michelin in a quarter-final, they will be confident they have their number. Leinster won’t be happy at the prospect coming out of the pool in second, but they are probable seventh seeds and will fancy their chances away to Clermont, Ulster, Harlequins and Saracens. Only Toulon represent an intimidating journey into the unknown – it’s a fascinating sub-plot to the jostling for quarter-final seeding – third place might be a better place to be than second.

And finally, to Connacht, whose victory over fading heavyweights Biarritz was possibly the highlight of the weekend.  17 of their 22 points came from the boot of Dan Parks, including two sweetly struck drop goals.  In a season when foreign signings have been more under the microscope than ever, he is pound for pound th best bit of business by an Irish province this summer.  He is exactly what Connacht needed at this point in their development and is performing an invaluable job for them, turning the pressure they generate into points on the scoreboard.

The result certainly had an effect on our Munster-Leinster collision course.  It more or less takes Biarritz out of the equation, as they can only achieve a maximum of 20 points.  So, perhaps both Leinster and Munster could qualify as best runners-up?  Perhaps, but it’s looking like we might have been a bit dismissive of Pool 2’s chances of producing a second qualifier.  We thought Ospreys would be a contender in a three-way tussle in that group, but it doesn’t look like panning out that way.  With Ospreys now all but doomed, both Toulouse and Leicester could win there and set about achieving some pretty high points totals.

PS the “think of the fans” argument for not sending off players who commit dangerous tackles is one of the most annoying memes of modern times. After Lloyd Williams was sent off for dumping Benoit Paillauge on his noggin, Ieuan Evans and Paul Wallace moaned about how it was never a red, and the Sky line at full-time was how disappointing it all was for the fans to see a refereeing decision “ruin the game”. It prompted us to imagine this hypothetical conversation between fans:

Fan 1: Oh look, Player A is going to be in a wheelchair for the rest of his life after being dumped on his head.

Fan 2: Who cares about that, I’m just hoping the referee doesn’t send off Player B – I paid £15 to see this!

Phew. Let’s Try Again

We’ve pulled this morning’s post after huge objections from the galleries. We fully accept we were wrong, and stand corrected – our followers and commenters are our lifeblood, and we bow to their greater knowledge, and issue a full mea culpa to National Treasure Rala. Next time he’s in need of some free puff pieces, Conor George-style, he can call us.

Unlike most countries, Ireland’s blazers (who gave themselves a self-congratulatory 5 pages in the Bok match programme) ignore the (professional) RWC as a marker in the national teams development, preferring their school chums favourite tournament – the braying old Six Nations.

Thus after 2007, Ireland endured Eddie’s swansong, and after RWC11, while other countries started afresh with a 4 year plan, the IRFU stumbled around the like amateurs they are with a contract through to the 2013 Six Nations. The year 2012, once the glow of the Argentina game fades, will be recalled as a year marked by operational disasters and on-field listlessness as the team slumped into the last months of Deccie’s contract. Organisational mishaps have followed Ireland around and been allowed to fester.

When Deccie came on board, he brought a crisp and fresh management team with defined roles – Les Kiss and Gert Smal were a breath of fresh air and for all the talk of Deccie getting the luck that Eddie didn’t, the famous Gary Player quote deserves to be recalled – the more Ireland practised the luckier they got, and a fully deserved Grand Slam was delivered through innovation and hard work. Post RWC11, that coaching team has evolved into something of a dogs dinner – Les Kiss gets shunted around, Gert Smal’s role is unclear, and Axel Foley and Greg Feek get drafted in and out to fill in gaps.

The nadir was the Mick Kearney’s first week as team manager in January 2012 – his first act was to get slapped down by the IRB for suggesting Barnes had admitted Fez’s tackle shouldn’t have been penalised in the Wales game. It was not the most auspicious start to his new job, but was symptomatic of a set-up which was seemingly intent on continuously criticising match officials.

The penny-pinching that characterised Ireland’s efforts in the dawn of professionalism reared its head again this year. For the end-of-season tour to NZ, a small squad was selected despite the inevitability of injuries – no lessons were learned from 2010 when armies of players came out one at a time. Before the final test in Hamilton, the players had to check out of their hotels in advance to save a nights room charge, and Paddy Wallace was grabbed from a Portuguese beach and fast-tracked into the side, with wholly predictable results.

The story in the Sunday Times last week where O’Reilly revealed the turkeys at Lansdowne Road might be on the verge of voting for Christmas is long delayed. The appointment of a professional director of rugby with a meaningful role would be a hugely welcome development – the present structure in Ireland is not fit for the purpose of producing consistently well-prepared and successful sides. The idea that Deccie has to sit in front of some amateur volunteers and justify his selection and tactics for a Test match is a sepia-tinged anachronism in this, the 18th year of professional rugby – we have been critical of Deccie for his selection and tactics, but we don’t envy him for having to deal with the old farts of Lansdowne Road. Without brushing over the work these unpaid volunteers do, this is a job for a professional.

Perhaps the most important function of the new role would be managing the relationship between provinces and national team.  The head coach having to enforce the Player Welfare rules with provincial coaches has surely not helped Ireland’s cause over the last season or so, particularly as the dichotomy between their relative performances has emerged.  We’ve said before that Ireland going down the road of Country vs. Province can only end in failure, and that remains the case.  Taking the head coach out of the firing line might also negate the need for the media to peddle this agenda, which has become especially trying.  At one point in the last month an interview with Eoin Reddan was headlined ‘Reddan Defends Provincial Success’.  Such silliness has to end.

What the Hell Is Going On In: The Welsh Regions?

It’s November, and we know what that means: internationals.  So while in Ireland the IRFU scrabble around to get 40,000 people to watch the Argentina game, across the water in Wales this is really the beginning of the season.  Not content with filling the three-week test calendar, they also have an additional game outside the test window, against Australia.  The same Australia they’ve already played five times in the last 15 months.  Suck that up, regions!

Deccie might look enviously at the prioritisation of the national team in Wales, where it’s the be all and end all for players, supporters and media alike, while the regions form little more than an extended training camp.  But it’s not a model we’d recommend the IRFU to try to replicate.

The latest indictment of the regional franchises was Cardiff’s feeble capitulation to Leinster last week.  Leo Cullen had no problem describing them as ‘soft in the tackle’, as they lost six tries in a scarcely believable first half.  At one point, David Kearney was put into an ocean of space straight through the middle of the pitch; the sort of gap you’d expect to appear after multiple phases of gainline-crossing rugby.  But this was only the second phase!  A try quickly followed after a couple of recycles.

This was no Cardiff B-team, but a line-up featuring their best players; Jamie Roberts, Alex Cuthbert and Sam Warburton included.  Indeed, it was Sam Warburton’s performance which raised the most concern.  Formerly a Lions captain in waiting, he was dominated by his opposite number, the relatively unheralded, but fast-improving academy player, Jordi Murphy.  Indeed, Leinster’s performance was characterised by greased-lightning-fast ball all night long, with Warburton barely leaving an impression at ruck-time.

If you were the Welsh coach, would you pick him?  Based on form you’d look straight past him to Ospreys’ brilliant Jason Tipuric, but Gatland will be aware it ain’t that simple and will expect to see Warburton and Roberts morph into the world-class international versions of themselves under his watch.  But can such a transformation consistently be achieved?  Good form isn’t a tap you can simply turn on and off.  Despite what some media types will try and tell you, there is no ‘Welsh way’, no magic in the air that makes the players suddenly invincible in the red jersey.  The team has obviously been superbly coached by Warren Gatland and Rob Howley, but with Gatland taking a year-long sabbatical to focus on the Lions, a stern test awaits this year for the Welsh team.

Even more concerning must be the long-term damage to Welsh rugby.  The regions play in half-empty, soul-less stadia and have been encumbered with a salary cap, in an effort to make the numbers somehow add up.  A great number of their players have decamped to the Top 14.  While players plying their trade in France is perhaps not the national crisis it’s perceived as on these shores, it does leave the regional sides rather short of quality.

The Welsh national team has had a glorious twelve months, but how long can it keep going?  Wales has a similar playing population to Ireland, and won’t always have the quality of player that it does at the moment.  Indeed, as little as two years ago, they were pretty abject.  When the national team splutters, they’ll have little to fall back on.  While we have lambasted the IRFU and Kidney for a lack of vision, at least Irish rugby is founded on solid ground.  Even when the national team is rubbish, the problems are fixable, and the provinces have consistently provided an outlet during taxing periods.  In Wales, the edifice may be more impressive, but it all seems to be precariously balanced on Warren Gatland’s shoulders.

Mythbusters Part Deux

In and around any international series, it has become inevitable that a number of bizarre viewpoints take on the status of hard facts, whether by being repeated by influential media personnel, through selective memories of those involved or good old-fashioned provincial bias.  Last season it was decreed that Ireland needed huge backs and that Sean O’Brien couldn’t play openside.  This year, a few more are circulating already.

Myth Number 1: Keith Earls can’t play 13

Perpetrators: A lot of people who don’t come from Limerick

Last week our comments section became weighed down with folk of the fixed opinion that ‘Keith Earls can’t/shouldn’t/isn’t a natural/isn’t a test class 13’.    Now, we don’t want to be picking a fight to our loyal readership, but we’re just not buying this one. 

Lets start by going back to last year when we posted this piece. Since then (in fact, pretty much since the World Cup), Earls has done everything asked of him.  He shone like a beacon amid Munster’s abysmal back play last season, all from the position of 13, and in spite of incompetence all around him. He threw in a shocker of a performance at home to Castres, but since that day has been excellent.  Remember the pivotal Ulster game in Thomond Park?  Earls was brilliant: he showed quick hands to get Zebo into the corner for his try and the highlight was his sumptuous pass to Felix Jones late in the second half, which looked to have put the full-back into open country, only for him to inexplicably drop the ball.

In the Six Nations he performed admirably in the role, in the absence of O’Driscoll, and generally won good reviews for his performances.  His good form in the role continued into this season, when he looked pin-sharp before his injury. The argument that he can’t actually do it is based on a few things: that Earls lacks the size to play the role, that he is a poor defender and that he lacks the distribution and awareness of space.

On the last point, we would direct anyone of this opinion to the video below, of a try in Ravenhill this season.  Yes, you can prove anything with a highlights reel, but in this try Earls touches the ball three times, and every touch shows such natural footballing intuition that it can only come from a player with keen awareness of space and good distribution.  His first is an expertly timed round the corner pass to put Billy Holland into a gap, his second a beautiful, fast pass in front of Laulala to open up the space out wide.  Does he stay take a moment to marvel at the splendour of his skill?  He does not, instead making a beeline to support the men out wide and gets on the end of Hurley’s inside pass to score a try.  It’s the sort of skillset that can’t be taught or manufactured.  It’s classic midfield play.

Then we have the size argument.  True, he is not a huge man.  Keith Earls tips the scales at 90kg.  That’s three kilos lighter than both Brian O’Driscoll and Fergus McFadden and four lighter than Wesley Fofana, who plays in the traffic-heavy 12 channel.  But more importantly, the size argument is frequently ill-deployed.  Most ‘Earls is not a 13’ campaigners are happy to continue to select him on the wing.  But in these days of George Norths and Tim Vissers, the wings are no more suitable for lightweights than the midfield.  Either you can defend well enough to play in the three-quarter line or you can’t, and we’d argue that Earls can.

There’s a sense that certain high profile bloopers have been over-played – compare and contrast the reactions to the Manu Incident in August 2011 and Gareth Maule’s burning of BOD a few weeks ago. Incident 1 has been re-treaded ad infitum (and we are as guilty as anyone in that regard), yet Incident 2 is written off as an obvious freak, something that will never happen again – which of course it probably was, since those things happen to everyone from time-to-time, even BOD. And Keith Earls.

Earls has shown in the last 12 months he has the football to play at 13, and he looks like he has the mental too – we’d pick him at 13 for this series, in spite of the form of Darren Cave – he’s one of our best players and its his best position.

Myth 2: Someone Other Than Jamie Heaslip Should Be Captain if Paul O’Connell isn’t Fit

Perpetrator: Many hacks, most notably Keith Wood

Brian O’Driscoll has been Ireland’s captain for over a decade. His on-field pack lieutenant for most of that period has been Paul O’Connell. Rory Best is the other key member of the leadership triumvirate for the national side. So who should lead the team if all 3 are out?

The first and most obvious requirement is that they are actually in the team in the first place, and are guaranteed their place, not just now but for the medium-term – there is little point in giving the armband to Dorce, no matter how well his is playing. So, on that basis, who are the contenders? We’ll go with Cian Healy, Mike Ross, Stephen Ferris, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip, Johnny Sexton, Tommy Bowe or Rob Kearney – there are no other automatic selections with a fully-fit panel.

Fez, O’Brien and Kearney are injured, so they are out. Mike Ross is a key player in a key position, but is 32 and has shown no desire or aptitude for captaincy in the past – he’s out too, and Tommy Bowe, for all his qualities, is patently not major-general material. Which leaves Healy, Heaslip and Sexton.

We’d argue that Healy is just too individual and introspective to be the national captain – plus we aren’t sure he would want it. He’s a quiet and determined chap on the pitch, not quite a Johnno-esque over-the-top type – we don’t think he’s a candidate. Sexton is a key player and probable Lions outhalf, should now be a member of the inner sanctum, but he’s simply too cranky on the pitch to the the Man. His leadership qualities aren’t in doubt – look at his many inspirational performances for Leinster – but he has enough on his plate at out-half – keep him close, but don’t let him toss the coin. Which leaves Heaslip – a natural leader, captaincy experience, guaranteed his place on the team and a mature head with over 50 Test caps. He’s the only credible captain.

Woody’s contribution to the debate was to suggest Sexton or Peter O’Mahony. Sexton’s qualities are discussed above, but its simply madness to consider POM. The hype surrounding O’Mahony has done him no favours, resulting in unrealistic expectations, being shunted back and forth across the backrow, merely allowing top-class opponents (Ruchie, Adam Thompson) to highlight his weaknesses, and being rested at Deccie’s behest when playing might be in his longer-term interests. O’Mahony might make a brilliant Ireland captain in the future, but that day, if/when it comes, will be at least 5 years away – right now, he should be concentrating on getting a position, gaining experience, playing time and maturity, and listening to the Mole instead of Keith Wood.

Note: we aren’t totally down on the idea that a long-term view should be taken, but a balance needs to be struck. If we were only thinking about RWC19, why not go the whole hog and give Iain Henderson the armband?

Myth 3: Ireland’s Management Are In No Way Responsible for the Tighthead Crisis

Perpetrator: Largely Gerry Thornley

After Michael Bent’s incredible call-up to the Ireland squad shortly after landing in Dublin airport, its hard to know who was more incredulous – the fans or the player himself. However, after a bit of thought, its not clear what alternatives the management had – Deccie Fitz is notoriously injury prone, so a third tighthead was needed, and who else was there? Ronan Loughney is behind Nathan White in Connacht, and Stephen Archer is not at Pro12 level, never mind international.

So Bent gets the nod, which is fine. But how did this situation arise? Why simple, say Gerry et al – “there was a lot of investment made in Tony Buckley, which didn’t pay off”. Hmmmm, true, but only to a point. A more accurate and complete description would be “the IRFU and the Ireland management team made a lot of investment in Tony Buckley, which didn’t pay off”.

So Ireland’s Tighthead Crisis is not, after all, completely exogenous to management. In fact, they, to a degree, are responsible for the situation they now find themselves in. Mike Ross was completely ignored until he became last man standing (February 2011, after Mushy failed to make it 80 minutes in a Woflhounds game) and the November 2010 series was a travesty for tighthead development. Is it any wonder we find ourselves where we are?

Now, to be fair to Deccie, its not like there are piles of tightheads whose development he is ignoring – he only gets to ignore them when they make it into the Leinster/Ulster/Connacht teams. The blame for the lack of youngsters coming through lies largely at the door of 10 Lansdowne Road – at the blazers who run the IRFU. There is no scrum czar, no national director of scrummaging, and no development plan for promising tightheads. Adam Macklin played 8 in school, not because he couldn’t push in the scrum, because he is built like a tank and since, for safety reasons, you can’t scrummage at full power in the schools game, so Methody could best utilise him at 8 – if there was a professional director of scrummaging, he may have been far keener on Macklin playing in his proper position. Would he have been put at 8 in New Zealand?

We’re going to be stuck with this situation of digging up graves in the Southern Hemisphere to find Irish grannies until we put a proper professional development structure in place to develop props. As O’Reilly said yesterday, the amateur hour IRFU are an increasing anachronism in a professional game – time they did the likes of Macklin and Tadgh Furlong a favour and put their careers in the hands of someone who knows what they are doing.

Deccie Announces Squad!

At noon today Deccie announced a 31-man squad for the upcoming November internationals.  It’s become customary for these affairs to be followed by gnashing of teeth and wild gesticulations.  Truth be told, there isn’t a whole lot to say about this one that we haven’t said before.

Four uncapped players are included; Ulster’s Iain Henderson and Luke Marshall, newly Irish-ised Richardt Strauss and Munster prop David Kilcoyne.  We can only presume that Kilcoyne’s Mr. 15%, Frankie Sheahan will be using his media platform to talk about him an awful lot.  Strauss will debut from the bench, and 23-man squads will help Kilcoyne’s chances of a test cap.  Marshall and Henderson will be familiar with tackle bags by the end of the month.

Strauss’ call-up will excite a few purists.  He’s the first ‘project-player’ to make the international grade, and is certainly the second-best hooker in the country, but of course, has only qualified through residency.  Other nations, in particular England, have shown little angst about this approach, and perhaps as a nation we should not be too precious about it.  The rules are the rules and we may as well benefit.  Strauss’ quality as a player is not in doubt.

Luke Marshall represents something of a wild card, given he is not a starter in the Ulster team.  Deccie cited the reason for his selcetion as being that Ireland’s three best centres are all of a similar age profile, so some succession planning is in order.  It’s a pity the same logic didn’t extend to other positions, such as fly half, where ROG continues to be very much first reserve and there’s no place for any of the young battalion of 10s currently making waves.  Last we checked ROG was pushing 36, injured and not really that good any more.  Ireland will be left with only one experienced fly-half in the near future, but investigating a new one is kicked down the road again.

Kidney noted that he would probably add another prop and a back to the panel and is presumably waiting on Declan Fitzpatrick and Felix Jones to come through this weekend’s action with some game-time under their belts.  Rob Kearney’s injury leaves Ireland desperately short of specialist full-backs, but throwing an injury-prone and inexperienced player into the test environment before giving him aple opportunity to find his form would be a major risk; Keith Earls would be our preference for full-back, with Jones given a chance to prove himself with his province.  Earls’ positional switch would create room for the in-form Simon Zebo on the wing.

In the forwards, there is the usual super-abundance of second rows and blindsides.  The trio of Munster locks take their spots and are joined by Mike McCarthy and Dan Tuohy.  In the backrow all of Ferris, Henderson, McLoughlin, Muldoon and O’Mahony make the panel, but the only backrow with any experience at openside this season is Chris Henry.  He has a good shot at making the test team in O’Brien’s absence, but don’t discount the chance that Kidney will try to shoe-horn O’Mahony in at 7, despite not playing there this season.

Perhaps of more note than the players named was the news that Axel Foley will take over as defence coach, while Kiss will move to attack, but only for this series.  Greg Feek will also join the coaching team, again just for the series.  It has a cobbled together look, and does little to disprove the theory that this panel trundle from series to series with little forward planning or grand vision.  These are the perils of trying to appoint staff when the coaching ticket is in its final year.  Kiss was praised for his innovation in improving Ireland’s defence, but now finds himself removed from that role entirely.  There’s no new voice in the team, which they seem to be crying out for, as Foley has helped out in the past.  Still, it’s something, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to learn that the players demanded one coach to specialise in attack, with Brian O’Driscoll recently highlighting the issue in public.

The announcement does little to suggest this series will see anything hugely different from Team Ireland.