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What is Shane Williams Doing on the Lions Tour?

When WoC looked at its twitter feed yesterday morning and saw that Shane Williams had been called up to the Lions we had to check the date and make sure it wasn’t April 1.  What the heck was Shane Williams doing being called out after a year in semi-retiurement in Japan?

Before getting too emotional about the tear-stained Lions jerseys and their almost spiritual qualities, it’s worth remembering exactly what Williams has been parachuted into the squad to do.  He’s there to play one midweek game, the one before the first test, before going home again, or back on the beer, or whatever he was doing.  Yes, the Lions is that last great tour on earth, and that should be respected, but we’re now living in an age where injuries are more prevalent than ever, and a bit of pragmatism is essential.  He’s been picked because he’s already in Australia and he does not have to overcome the same jetlag as, say, Christian Wade will have to.  He’s giving Gatty a dig out.  Wazza obviously feels he just needs a space-filler for this game, so as to avoid putting one of his test men on the pitch and risking them getting injured. Given the word on the street is that George North and Tommy Bowe will be available by the middle of next week, he’ll have a few more faces to choose from, so it’s not worth flying, say, Timbo Visser, halfway around the world for one game.  It’s a quick-fix.

Anyone who thinks the Lions shirt is being devalued by Shane Williams wearing it probably needs to look down the list of fair-to-middling players that have worn it: Andy Powell, Ugo Monye and Lee Mears spring to mind, and that was just the last tour. Have a look at the touring panel from 2005 and try reminding yourself of the magnificent feats of Gareth Cooper, Iain Balshaw and Ollie Smith. Shane Williams is a two-time Lions tourist and knows what it’s all about.  He was also a ridiculously good player, and will make the midweek team better to watch, even if it’s only for one game.  And if he’s even 15% as good as he was in his last game in an Ospreys jersey, which was only 12 months ago, when he was the matchwinner against Leinster in the Pro12 final, he’ll be more than up to task of filling in for the Lions in a midweek match.

But there are some counter-arguments.  Principally that it devalues the touring party and is a slight on players who have played all year to try and earn a shot at the Lions.  Given the one-shot nature of the call-up, would we prefer to have the jinking Welshman out there instead of, say, a jetlagged Tim Visser? Yes … if it’s a one-shot game. With the injuries coming thick and fast, who’s to say he won’t be needed more? What if Wade or Zebo get injured? At present, he’s 1.5 injuries away from a spot on the test bench, and, for that, I’d rather Visser to be frank – glorified training in Japan followed by a jolly around Oz just isn’t good enough preparation.

Andy Nicol was called up in exactly the same circumstances twelve years ago, and he prayed Matt Dawson wouldn’t get injured – he didn’t think he would last ten minutes. And Nicol hadn’t been in Japan for a year.

There is also the tightrope Gatty is walking with regard to Welsh players – if he picks his boys in all the 50-50s, having called up his mate from the bar, it’s not going to go down well in the squad. We’re sure Gatty has a plan to manage all this, but if Williams ends up being needed for the bench (or the field) in a test, a slightly madcap, fun-filled gamble will have backfired spectacularly.

by whiffofcordite on June 17, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Lions, Lions2013, Shane Williams, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on June 17, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/06/17/what-is-shane-williams-doing-on-the-lions-tour/

Wazza’s World

Neil Francis said on Sunday that he would bet the house on Gatland naming a test backrow of his three Welsh golden boys Dan Lydiate, captain Sam Warburton and Toby Faletau.  It’s the backrow which dominated in the World Cup and the 2012 Six Nations, and seemingly the one Wazza would have left the northern hemisphere with designs on picking.

But in a unit of the team where competition for places which was fiendishly competitive to begin with, such a selection would fly in the face of current form.  Being an all-Welsh combination, it would also have the potential – from our viewpoint on the outside, anyway – to split the squad into factions.  Will it come to pass?

We’ve been trying to get inside Gatland’s head a little bit to resolve this one and it’s not easy.  We can use the fact that the first test is one Saturday from now to try and accrue tidbits of information, but even that is tricky.  Gatland will want to keep everyone – not least his own players – guessing as to what the test team will be until it’s announced.  Essentially, we have absolutely no idea what the backrow will be.  But here’s what little we can piece together.

1. Warburton is the captain, Gatland will want him in the team.

Yes, Wazza has said he wouldn’t necessarily pick his captain if others were playing better, but he’ll really, really want to not have to do that.  If nothing else, it would show up the mistake in naming him captain in the first place.  He’s made Warburton his leader and won’t want to go into battle without him.  He looked off the pace on Saturday but you can ink him down for saturday’s match because Gatland is going to give Warbs every chance to play himself into some form.  But this is last chance saloon stuff, with not one but two outstanding rivals for the test jumper, with Tipuric and O’Brien both showing electric form.

2. Heaslip ahead by a nose?

When Jamie Heaslip was called off the pitch after 50-something minutes, and replaced by Faletau, it put him in the box seat for saturday’s match.  Faletau started on Saturday and played 30 minutes yesterday, so he’s due a rest.  If Jamie can bring another good performance against the Waratahs, a test place is likely to follow, after Faletau failed to impress against the Reds.  Jamie’s captaincy woes of the Six Nations appear to be behind him and he has found some great form over the last two months.

3. Pay close attention to the No.6 jersey for the Waratahs match

Tom Croft has sat out the last two games after a mediocre showing against Western Force, so it’s his ‘turn’ to play 6 against the ‘Tahs.  But if Neil Francis is right, and Dan is the man for Gatland, he is way short of gametime and needs another match.  In short, if he is to start the first test, he has to play on Saturday.  If you see Dan Lydiate’s name on the teamsheet tomorrow, then take it that it’s a done deal and he’s in the test team.  If Croft is picked then Lydiate’s hopes recede and barring a spectacular performance from the gazelle-like Leiceter man – not impossible, but he hasn’t done much of note yet – Sean O’Brien becomes the likely test blindside.

This can go one of three ways:

1. The Sad Ending

Franno is right, and Gatland picks Lydiate, Warburton and Felatau.  Quite frankly, you would want to have pretty good reasons for leaving an in-form Sean O’Brien out of any team, but you’d need to have very strong convictions to pick two chaps ahead of him who aren’t playing especially well – and are perhaps not even fully match fit.  Expect the Irish media to go ballistic, but that might be the least of Gatland’s worries.  There’s every chance such a selection would result in discord in the camp and a splitting of the group into factions.  It would stink of the test team being picked before the plane even touched down in Hong Kong, and that nothing anybody did in the meantime could have made any difference.  Put simply, they would have to win the first test or there would be hell to pay.

2. The Mega Happy Ending

Form is king and Gatty picks the backrow which started yesterday; O’Brien, Tipuric and Heaslip.  After all, they’ve been the three most impressive performers and have the look of a balanced unit.  We’ve long been admirers of the sensational Justin Tipuric, and if selected, we’ve a sneaking suspicion he could go home from the tour a superstar.

3. The Scooby Doo Ending

Tom Croft plays against the ‘Tahs, wins six lineouts against the throw and makes not one, not two, but three of his trademark 50m line breaks in the outside centre channel, prompting Stuart Barnes to faint in the commentary box through sheer Oooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-ness and Crofty forces himself into the test team where he promptly retreats into his shell, makes four tackles, wins one lineout and carries three times for a gain of five metres.

by whiffofcordite on June 12, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Jamie Heaslip, Lions, Lions2013, Sam Warburton, Sean O'Brien, Tom Croft, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on June 12, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/06/12/wazzas-world/

Lion Kings

Something has been nagging at us recently – why are the Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiions favourites for the test series? On Betfair right now, the Lions are 1.7 and the Wobblies 2.6. We’re a bit confused. We don’t argue with the idea that this looks a good Lions squad – they’ve a nice blend of experience from four (and eight …. and twelve!) years ago and young tyros, have an excellent fly half, and are playing in the easiest place top tour of the three Southern Hemisphere biggies.

But … favourites? Part of us thinks that no invitational team, no matter how many of Ian McGeechan’s tears are stitched into the shirt, should ever beat a test nation worth its salt. Another, more romantic, part watches the footage of the 1974 tour and thinks anything is possible. Still … favourites?

The Six Nations, opening weekend and final game aside, was an abomination this year, characterised by stodgy rugby, low skill levels and 6.5’s (Justin Tipuric aside). The best two club teams in the Northern Hemisphere, Toulon and Clermont, have precisely one representatives on tour – Toulon bench-warmer Gethin Jenkins. Admittedly, that is partly out of choice of the Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiions coaches; and the other standout of recent years, Leinster, have six.

Recent statistics aren’t imposing, but are certainly in the Australians favour:

  • Since the last Lions tour, Australia have won 12, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their 21 homes games – four of the losses have been to New Zealand, one to South Africa and one to Samoa
  • They have beaten Wales (3), Ireland (1) and England (1) in that period, and lost to England (1) and Scotland (1) – thats a 5-2 win-loss record at home
  • Australia have eight successes in a row against Wales, and have won 17 of 20, with one draw, since the game went open]
  • Last November, the Australians won in Twickenham and the Millennium Stadium

Also, what about the world rankings? Australia are third, a cigarette paper behind South Africa, and with some daylight between themselves and England (4), Wales (5), Ireland (9) and Scotland (10). The Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiions are composed of the cream of those four (plus Matt Stevens), but in reality, the Test side is going to be mostly a Welsh-Irish composite, or, in other words, a fifth-ninth composite. Does fifth-ninth beat third? Maybe.

We think the Lions favouritism is actually majorly driven by all the doubts surrounding this Aussie team. The bond between management, players and fans seems loose, at best, right now. Their best player is out in the cold (for the moment). They have a propensity to occasionally lose to inferior sides. But still, the best side in Super Rugby so far this season is the ACT Brumbies. The Queensland Reds won it the year before last. Its only halfway through the year for them, unlike their opponents. It just seems odd that the Lions are so fancied, and for the first time in living memory.

Since the Invincibles tour, the Lions have won two Test series from nine – 1989 in Australia and 1997 in South Africa. In 1989, the team was dominated by England and Scotland sides that went on to complete memorable Grand Slams  and contest a RWC semi-final in 1991. The 1997 South African tourists largely laid the template for the new pro-style Lions tours, with shorter duration, rampant commericialism and dewey-eyed reverence for a concept that seemed not to have a modern relevance.

This team will be dominated by Wales and Ireland – and Wales have lost all eight games against Australia in the last four years, while Ireland are coming off their worst Six Nations ever. The Liiiiiiiiiiiiions will need to call on all of that history, and hope that the players can rise to the occasion. Its going to be a massive challenge, and we are struggling with the idea that the Lions are genuine favourites.

ADDITION TO POST:

We’re aware Betfair odds (and to an extent bookies odds) are driven by supply and demand, but they are also driven by rational investors. Is it rational to have the Lions at 1.7?

by whiffofcordite on June 4, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Australia, Lions, Lions2013, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on June 4, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/06/04/lion-kings/

The Last 2%

So Leinster saw off Schmidty, Johnny Sex-bomb and Isa Nacewa with a much-coveted Pro12 title – while Ulster were the better team over the year, Leinster were better on the day. They out-scored their hosts/visitors two tries to none, and looked a little more composed all day.

Their experience of bigger days certainly told, and they had ice in their veins at key moments. Ulster came out a tad over-exuberant and struggled to come to terms with Lacey’s refereeing, giving away 4 penalties in 8 minutes, while Leinster eschewed three points from an early penalty and went for the corner, resulting in their first try. Hurting your opponent at key times is something Leinster excel at – think early in the second half in Bordeaux last year.

Ulster had a similar situation with an hour gone – they had momentum and had turned Leinster over a few times, then earned a penalty in the corner at 12-19. Egg remarked to his companion that this was the time to go for the corner and try to really turn the screw on Leinster, but as he talked, the entire Ulster team walked backwards and prepared for Pienaar to take a shot. There was no discussion of going to the corner at all, which surprised us. What would Leinster have done? What would Munster have done – the theatrical conversation between O’Connell and O’Gara preceding the inevitable kick down the line is well known at this stage. We’re just not sure three points was what the doctor ordered at that stage in the game.

In the final analysis, Leinster were able to eke out tries and Ulster weren’t – or conversely, Leinster were able to keep Ulster out, while Ulster couldn’t do likewise – Leinster had key interventions to prevent tries – Boss after PJ’s chargedown, Sexton holding up Diack, the scrum just about holding up from 20-25 minutes.

Those little extra things, and the nous that comes from multiple finals (this was their sixth in three years under Joe Schmidt) told for Leinster – and Ulster will be back, hopefully with lessons learned. They have had another good season,  but the next step is going to be learning how to win these big games. It isn’t a given that a team will make that final step from contender either. Some teams climbed the mountain step by painful step (Munster), some went virtually straight to the top (Leinster), some seem to be forever bridesmaids, but do get the occasional fulfillment (Clermont) and some simply never do it (Northampton Saints).

Ulster’s homework this summer is to figure out what they need to add to their game, and plan accordingly. They seem to have most of the starting XV personnel in place (caveat, Fez is a massive loss) but just need to work out the next step – be it better execution, more ambition in the gameplan, a better use of the bench, whatever. Oddly, the one impact sub in the backline they had, Paul Marshall, was unused – having a Plan B would certainly be a start if Plan A wasn’t really working. Still, they can feel satisifed with their efforts in this years Rabo, and rest easy that they did the memory of the tragic Nevin Spence proud. As for Leinster, all you can say is Matt O’Connor has one hell of a tough job living up to this.

Postscript: John Lacey did not have a good game. Leaving aside his obvious frustration at the early penalties, Anscombe made an excellent point after the game – shouldn’t the best referee available be in charge for the final? Of the Celtic refs, Owens would have been that man – was there a reason he wasn’t there? Was it that we wanted an Irish ref? If so, it couldn’t have been Rolland, so the only other alternative was *gulp* Clancy. Last year, though, it was Poite, but presumably the best French refs were busy at the Top14 semi-finals. Getting to the nub of the issue then – if the Pro12 wants to be taken seriously, it needs to start awarding finals to referees with the kind of stature the league aspires to – Superstar Steve Walsh, opportunity knocks!

by whiffofcordite on May 27, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Leinster, RaboDirect Pro12, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 27, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/05/27/the-last-2/

Thoroughbred Racehorse

Were you one of the people questioning why Tom Croft made the Lions selection?  Check the tape of this weekend’s semi-final against Halrequins and you’ll see why.  Dude is as fast as lightning.

Gatland made his fair share of daft selections in his Lions squad, but none of them were in the backrow, where he has stacked his deck perfectly.  The watchword here is ‘variety’, because he has got players tailored to whatever game he wants to play.  Tackle the Aussies to a standstill?  Get Lydiate on the pitch.  Run at their forwards to soften them up.  Sean O’Brien is starting.  The ground is super-hard and dry and we’re going to put some width on it?  Dial +44-YEOMAN and get Tom Croft out there.

Croft tends to take his fair share of flak, and we haven’t always been complimentary of him on these pages.  He can appear to be a luxury player, a showpony who can go large tranches of a match without doing anything, looking to make flashy breaks but unwilling to do the hard, unshowy stuff.  The debate is not that dissimilar to that which rages over our own Peter O’Mahony, a similarly athletic presence who can make big plays in wide channels, but often requires other back row members to do a share of grunt work.  Croft shipped a lot of the blame for an anonymous performance against Wales in this year’s Six Nations, when the Welsh backrow completely dominated both he and Robshaw.

All of which is fair enough, but the point is that there is room in the touring party for a player with Croft’s unique set of skills (remember that he augments his pacy running with outstanding lineout ability) and athleticism.  Besides, the dry Antipodean tracks will suit him far better than the roly-poly sponges that the Six Nations was played upon, and while the rest of the squad are battling fatigue after an exhauting season, Croft is fresh as a daisy and just coming into his best form.  The idea that Tom Wood or Chris Robshaw would be selected ahead of this fellow is simply ridiculous.  In a world of identikit six-and-a-half-wearing-twelve-carries-for-fourteen-metres-gaining workhorse drones, he is a throroughbred racehorse.

by whiffofcordite on May 13, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 13, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/05/13/thoroughbread-racehorse/

What next for Keith Earls?

It was this time last week four years ago that Keith Earls was named in the Lions squad.  He was the archetypal bolter, barely established at international level – he’d been capped against Canada in the previous Autumn series – but showing red-hot form in the lead in to the Lions announcement, culminating in a brilliant performance in the famous thrashing of the Ospreys at Thomond Park that signified the peak of the great Munster team of the noughties.

As it transpired, the tour didn’t go all that brilliantly for Keet, but he overcame a difficult start (he dropped his very first bomb in his very first game and looked harrowed by the experience) to get lots of gametime and it was put down as a learning experience that would stand to him, and surely he’d be back in four years time.  Except that is not how it’s turned out at all.  A flash Munster winger with a nose for the tryline was considered unlucky to miss out on the squad, but that was Simon Zebo.  In the shake-up, Earls was nowhere, barely mentioned in the parlour-game that is the multiple selection of theoretical squads by every writer, blogger or pundit.

He was largely absent from Munster’s recent resurgence, playing a minimal role in their two best performances of the season.  He was injured for the Harlequins match, and played in the unfamiliar 14 shirt against Clermont and left the field early in the second half.  His replacement, Denis Hurley scored the try that put Munster back into the match. This season he also lost his starting shirt for the first games of the Six Nations, though he quickly got into the team on the back of injury to his clubmate Zebo.

It doesn’t quite count as a fall from grace; Earls is still highly thought of in Munster, and no doubt Joe Schmidt will continue to see him as a valued squad member for Ireland.  But it does seem like Keith Earls has found himself somewhat squeezed out of the foreground.  Part of the issue is the positional to-ing and fro-ing that Earls has endured throughout his career.  Last summer, he made a pretty big deal of telling the media he ‘hated’ playing on the wing, and was adamant that he wanted to play centre exclusively for Munster.  In spite of having Casey Laulala in his squad, Penney granted Earls his wish and picked him at centre for much of the season.  But it’s been curious to watch Munster deliver their best when Casey Laulala played 13 (and crucially, when, for almost the first time, Laulala’s teammates appeared to be getting on his wavelength).

The Earls-for-13 movement hasn’t been quite as terrible as some have made out, and he’s had his moments at centre.  He certainly has the running skills to play there, and at times it’s important to focus on what he can do rather than what he can’t.  A couple of months into the season, Earls was in terrific form and looked comfortable in the role.  Witness the try in Ravenhill, where Earls touched the ball three times, one around-the-corner pass, another pass fast, flat and in front of the player running on to it, and the third a try-scoring support line.

But since then things have stalled, and the issue of Earls’ lack of distribution skills just won’t go away.  The other problem is that he cannot simply go back onto the left wing again; there’s a new sheriff in town over there.  It leaves him looking at another year trying to get to grips with the full range of skills required to play centre, or possibly redefining himself as a right wing, taking up the gap about to be vacated by Dougie Howlett.  Ultimately Rob Penney will have the final say.  As the season wore on, we got the feeling he sees his ideal 13 as more of a distributor than Earls can ever really be.  When Munster offered Luke Fitzgerald a contract and the promise of the 13 shirt, what did it say about Rob Penney’s faith in Earls’ continuing suitability for the role?

It can be unfortunate for players when a single event so dominates the public consciousness, but for Earls the moment where he failed to pass to Brian O’Driscoll having made a clean line break against Scotland in the Six Nations this season has almost come to define his lack of awareness of others around him.

It looks like next season could involve yet another positional change for Earlsy.  You could argue that we Irish are unnecessarily daunted by versatility and being a jack-of-many-trades, but for a player who has admitted to issues with self-confidence and has talked in the media about his determination to play in a specific position, it has the look of a backward step.

by whiffofcordite on May 7, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Keith Earls, Munster, Uncategorized
Tagged ,

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 7, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/05/07/what-next-for-keith-earls/

El Madrigal o Juan del Zextonio por el semifinal contre Biarritz?

Remarkably, Leinster have a selection dilemma at fly-half for this weekend’s semi-final against Biarritz.  It’s a scenario that seemed almost unthinkable until recently: that Sexton, Leinster’s best player and on-field general may not be an automatic choice for an important European game.  Incroyable!

It’s testimony to the strides made by Madigan in the ten weeks where Sexton has been injured (and, admittedly, the fact that it’s the Amlin).  It’s not that long ago that Leinster fans were crying into their moccha-frappucinos over Sexton’s departure, but now the anguish has been replaced by a sort of cautious optimism (the signing of Kirchner notwithstanding).  Madigan has set about the last number of weeks as if on a crusade to prove wrong the preconceptions many pundits have of him.  Can’t place kick off the tee?  Try 85% and top scorer in the Pro 12.  Great at home, but can he manage tough away games?  Wins in Adams Park and Thomond Park sound hard enough.  Can’t kick out of hand?  That part of his game is rapidly improving.  It’s reached the point where Madigan and the Lions have been mentioned in the same sentence.  There was a bump in the road against Ulster, but he responded as well as possible.

If one was to argue that the returning player has to earn the shirt back from the incumbent, there’s a strong case for retaining Madigan for the Biarritz match, such is his form.  Indeed, factor in that Sexton is leaving at the end of the season, and the strength of the argument compounds itself.  Joe Schmidt has already hinted that with a six-day turnaround, he might favour a number of those who didn’t play on Sunday.  That would mean Madigan starting.

But for all that, those with short memories need to cast their minds back to just how good a player Sexton is.  We’re talking about the de facto Lions test outhalf here. Would Leinster have won the last two Heineken Cups without Sexton? Unlikely.  If anyone has really forgotten, Sexton provided them with a reminder against Zebre in his return.  He kicked all his goals, made several clean breaks and knitted the backline together.  It was business as usual.  While Madigan has an air of what-will-he-do-next about him that gets supporters out of their seats, Sexton’s cool authority is undoubtedly preferred by his team-mates when the heat is on.

It’s easy to have one’s head turned by hugely talented players, but there exists a gulf between players who catch the eye with tries and linebreaks and those who deliver silverware.  Contepomi was the latter, but it was only when Sexton entered the fray that Leinster made the leap into greatness.  Madigan is a hugely exciting, wonderful prospect, but it’s not yet clear if he’s the sort of player who can consistently win finals.  It would ultimately be cruel luck on Madigan to drop him after doing so much so well in recent weeks.  Indeed, if Madigan is making a late, late bolt onto Gatland’s radar, he almost certainly needs to start and excel this weekend to have any chance of being in the Lions squad, so it would probably drive a nail into that coffin.

Madigan will at least know that his time will come, and that next season he’ll be starting these sorts of games.  When the news that Jonny Sexton was leaving, a number of Leinster fans suggested giving Madigan the rest of the season to acclimatise.  As it transpired, with Jonny’s injury, he has been given plenty of opportunities, and taken them. He’ll get many more next season, when the pressure will ramp up again – it’s one thing to win in Adams Park, yet another to beat Clermont in Bordeaux.

But the whiff of silverware has a habit of shaping priorities, and the majority of diehard Blues will be looking for Leinster to put their best team out to redeem what’s been a difficult season.  There are two cups to play for and Schmidt will look to his cup-winning fly-half to win them.  Jonny Sexton should start against Biarritz.

by whiffofcordite on April 25, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Ian Madigan, Jonny Sexton, Leinster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 25, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/25/el-madrigal-o-juan-del-zextonio-por-el-semifinal-contre-biarritz/

Knockout Blow

The sickening sight of Luke Marshall being removed from the field in Ulster’s game against Saracens with a suspected concussion was most sobering – a young man at the beginning of his career and full of promise had suffered a third concussion in four weeks, across three consecutive games. What were the long-term implications for his health?

Without conflating the two events, when former Pittsburgh Steeler Mike Webster died at the age of 50 in 2002, the autopsy revealed his brain had been damaged a protein called tau, most commonly found in Alzheimers patients. Webster hadn’t got Alzheimers however, he had chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), a degenerative brain disease caused by repeated head trauma.

The presence of the tau protein cannot be confirmed without cutting someone’s head open, so its usefulness as a diagnostic tool is limited. However, early symptoms of CTE are memory loss, confusion, impaired judgment, poor impulse control, aggression, depression, and progressive dementia. Boston University Center for the Study of Traumatic Encephalopathy posthumously identified CTE in 34 of 35 former NFL players.

So it’s clearly an issue in the NFL – should rugby be concerned? You would think so anyway – the IRB states in no uncertain terms in its concussion guidelines that CONCUSSION MUST BE TAKEN EXTREMELY SERIOUSLY (in capitals).

We aren’t medical professionals (or lawyers) so we won’t be opining on how seriously it is taken, but we will share some of the practices in both sports used to identify and report concussions.

We think the sports are comparable, both are tremendously physical and aggression is ingrained. Helmet to helmet hits are allowed in certain circumstances in NFL, but head-to-head are not in rugby, but NFL players wear more protection. A South African survey conducted in 2008 found similar concussion rates across the two sports – we haven’t found a comparable survey since then, but it’s fair to say rugby has got more physical since then, as has, to be fair, the urgency of concussion issues at the IRB.

The NFL is better than rugby for statistics – PBS tracked reported concussive or head injuries by NFL teams, and noted 170 for the year, across 256 regular season and 11 playoff games. We could not find a similar list for rugby players.

The NFL numbers are based upon injuries reported by the teams, and it is suspected it is not an exhaustive list. For example, last season, Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson left the field following an (illegal) helmet-to-helmet hit against the Minnesota Vikings – he underwent sideline concussion tests and returned to the field. Johnson was not listed on the Lions injury list, but was quoted as saying “Yeah, he knocked me good. You could tell. It was obvious”. A month later, Johnson and the Lions issued a joint statement in which the player retracted his claims about being concussed and claims he mis-spoke. Johnson is not on the PBS list.

Now, of course, we can’t blame teams completely for this – players have admitted that they will hide symptoms to continue playing, and it’s hard not to understand why – can you imagine Brian O’Driscoll leaving the field under any circumstances whatsoever? Remember the England game in the Grand Slam year, and that huge hit from Felon Armitage?

In the NFL, players are assessed using the SCAT-2 sporting head trauma protocol. This is a series of tests, physical and cognitive, for which players are tested, and then are scored by sideline medical professionals, who then compare the score to a baseline – for example the same test done pre-season – then make a judgement about whether the player is fit to continue.

There are some questions surrounding this test:

  • The subjectivity element – there is no defined “cut-off”
  • The baseline test – is there a possibility this could be gamed?
  • The relative contributions of different tests – the ocular test is passed with a 100% score if the player spontaneously opens their eyes, whereas with the balance test it is extremely hard to fake a false pass – but both contribute equally

It should also be noted the SCAT-2 tests usually take 10-15 minutes – that’s a smaller portion of an NFL game due to advertisement breaks, change of possessions, time-outs and simply the nature of the game. In rugby 10-15 minutes is a virtual eternity. There have been suggestions to use alternative tests, such as the King-Devick test, which is used in MMA and boxing and takes only 40 seconds for a non-concussed person – someone with a concussion will struggle with this test and often cannot complete it.

Moving on to rugby, if a player has a suspected concussion or head injury, the IRB protocols are as follows:

  • Players suspected of having concussion must be removed from play and must not resume play in the match.
  • Players suspected of having concussion must be medically assessed.
  • Players suspected of having concussion or diagnosed with concussion must go through a graduated return to play protocol (GRTP).
  • Players must receive medical clearance before returning to play.

If a player has any suspected symptoms of concussion – physical, behavioural or cognitive – they are tested using the Pocket SCAT-2 protocols on the field of play – this test need not be carried out by a medical practioner. The pocket SCAT-2 is a series of five questions. If the player is unable to answer any of the five questions, they are then removed from the field of play and subjected to the full SCAT-2 tests, by a qualified medical practioner.

The five questions are as follows:

  • At what venue are we today?
  • Which half is it now?
  • Who scored last in this game?
  • Which team did you play last week/game?
  • Did your team win the last game?

This is the key difference with NFL – for all the weaknesses of a SCAT test, they are conducted by a medical professional in the event of a suspected brain injury. In rugby, the Pocket SCAT-2 questions are an interim step, not necessarily conducted by a medical practioner, and limited in scope. These questions do have the benefits of not being subjective and having no baseline, but it’s clearly less in-depth than the full SCAT-2 or other tests.

Perhaps this is appropriate, perhaps not – we would love to see the research behind the five pocket questions. But more importantly, we really hope we never see a Mike Webster in rugby, and that Luke Marshall returns a healthy and better player.

by whiffofcordite on April 18, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 18, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/18/knockout-blow/

Conundrums in Key Positions

The great thing about the Heineken Cup knockout stages is there is no comeback. Here’s it’s do or die. At a higher standard of play and with increased pressure, unlike Munster, Ulster were found wanting.

It was something of a bloodless coup for Saracens – Ulster never laid a glove on them and Saracens just powered their way into the semi-finals. You sensed they had an extra gear available if Ulster flicked a switch, but they never needed it. The only positive for Ulster was their dominant scrum, but when your lineout isn’t functioning and the opposition backrow are dominant, that won’t matter. As a game, it was more reminiscent of Ulster’s defeat two years ago to the Saints in Milton Keynes that last years epic in Thomond Park, and that’s a worry.

Ulster effectively played five knockout matches last season (Leicester and Clermont in the final pool matches, Munster, Embra and Leinster). In each of those, barring the final, they brought tremendous physical clout to the table, the zenith of which was the near-win in the Marcel Michelin. This time out, they couldn’t compete. Allied to that, their attacking game was poor – when Ruan Pienaar wasn’t aimlessly kicking the ball away, he was passing out to a deep Paddy Jackson and a deeper again Luke Marshall. It was meat and drink to Brad Barritt and co.

Anscombe called it pretty well in the post-match interview, saying you’ve to throw the kitchen sink at these matches and Ulster were a little tentative. At least he showed an understanding of knockout rugby, even if it was after the event and more could possibly have been done from the sidelines – the non-use of Paul Marshall was odd, especially considering neither half looked on top of their game, and the impact Stuart Olding had when he came in.

If one compares the back-row and inside backs to last year’s same stage, its quite obvious Ulster have stepped down a gear. In the back row you have Ferris/Henry/Wannenbosh versus Henderson/Henry/Williams. As fine a player as Iain Henderson is and will be, he’s nothing like the blindside Fez is – it’s nothing to be ashamed of, most aren’t. Henderson is a young second row playing in a position where Ulster have a need – he played well, and he’s good enough to be knocking on the door of the Ireland team in a position that is not his natural one, but Stephen Ferris, when fit, is one of the best blindside flankers in the world.

At the back of the scrum, Wannenburg is a more rounded player than Nick Williams – not quite as destructive with ball in hand, but a good linker and a runner of smart lines. Wannenburg was one of Ulster’s most influential players in their key games last year – he created two tries at home to Leicester with deft handling, and he scored the decisive try in their nervy semi-final win. In contrast, Saracens read Williams’ intentions easily and stopped him in his tracks with ease. Williams has been much more effective than Ulster fans (and Munster fans) expected, but he doesn’t look like a player who will thrive at this rarefied level.

We said at the beginning of the year we worried for Ulster’s depth in the backrow – Williams has had a season beyond the wildest dreams of Ulster fans, yet there is still a need for Roger Wilson to get fully fit and firing at his 2011 level. Fez is going to Japan, and unless Henderson switches to blindside full-time (unlikely), Robbie Diack is virtually the only other contender. Henry’s excellence aside, the unit is not that intimidating, and is very thin. Perhaps a sniff around a player lower in the pecking order at another province is in order.

Turning to the inside backs, you have iHumph/Wallace versus Jackson/Marshall. The two younger lads are terrific prospects, but Wallace brings a decade of experience and nous, and Ulster are a more potent attacking outfit with him in tow. Its very difficult incorporating two younger players next to one another into a team and not seeing a dropoff in consistency and performance – Wallace is a player who can bring out the best in those around him, and, for all Marshall’s class, he isn’t there yet.

As for Pienaar, he has looked increasingly jaded this year. Between World Cups (2011), Tri-Nations & Rugby Championships (Summers 2010-12), Ulster (Winters 2010/11-2012/13) and Super Rugby for the Sharks (Summer 2010), he hasn’t had a decent rest since the winter of 2009/10. If Humph can somehow get Pienaar a holiday from the RC this summer, Ulster would be hugely grateful, and Luke Marshall and Jackson will be a year older and more experienced, and have hopefully a refreshed Wallace for direction, and Olding putting pressure on their jumpers.

Ulster still have a chance for silverware this year, but, right now, it seems more likely to end trophy-less, with question marks around key positions in the off-season. If you factor in the rumors that John Afoa might be going back home, it gets worse. Ulster’s most influential players in their breakout season last year were Afoa, Muller, Fez, Henry and Pienaar. For next year they face the prospect of two of them leaving and a third rapidly burning out – these are not good developments.

by whiffofcordite on April 11, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 11, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/11/conundrums-in-key-positions/

Discussion Discussion

Loyal readers,

We would be nothing without the comments and feedback we get – and we appreciate it, we really do.

The comments section of the blog is hugely valued, and is increasingly as much a part of the experience for readers, and us, as the articles themselves.  We get a great standard of debate, people add additional points that we haven’t touched on, and tease out other arguments on the article in question.  Sometimes, believe it or not – I know, it’s crazy – people don’t agree with us and offer counter-points to what we’ve written.  This is all really, really terrific.  The majority of those who use the comment box are highly knowledgable and greaatly enhance the blog and we are hugely grateful to you all.

However, recently, we have got feedback from some of our regulars that the comments board frequently turns off-topic and has often descended into a whiny, trolling tone, even putting some readers off the blog. Again, we appreciate this feedback. We ourselves have noticed an increasing number of spats in the comments section, and people making personal attacks without specific reference to points made in the article.  So we are upping our blog to the next level of WordPress security – that of forcing commentors to include an e-mail address, and each commenter will require our approval. Apologies if it inconveniences anyone, but it’s as much of a hassle for us as it is for you.  Remember that your email address will never be published; only we will see it, not the greater public.

Our email address is whiffofcordite@gmail.com and everyone is welcome to talk to us directly.

Oh, and to address some on-going queries:

  • Let’s keep the comments section on-topic and constructive.  Please do not post with wild accusations, with scant reference to the post in question.  We welcome constructive debate, not pot-shots
  • If you don’t like what we write, please let us know why, at the address above, but make it constructive please – we do take it on board.  Let’s keep the comments section for the topic in question.  Comments berating others or including personal abuse will simply be deleted from now on.
  • If you think what we do here is throw abuse at people online, you should perhaps ask yourself why the mainstream media throw this one out at every opportunity, and also why no blogger (that we know of) has yet called the captain of Ireland “an arrogant, ignorant swaggering windbag” and “an absolute knob”, unlike some prominent print hacks
  • Remember, it’s a bit of fun.  We’re passionate about rugby and we know you are too, but before you start hammering the keys violently, take a deep breath and remember we like to keep the tone jovial and irreverent rather than academic and fusty.  Yes, we like to poke fun at the crazy musings of some esteemed chums in the media, but try to take things in the spirit of gentle mockery rather than righteous indignation, which is probably how they were intended.  Unless it’s about Conor Geo…

Thanks as always for reading and let’s keep the rugby debate and discussion going in the comments section in the best possible tone.

Whiff of Cordite

by whiffofcordite on April 5, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 5, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/05/discussion-discussion/

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