Friday Night Interpro at Ravers

This weekend sees the first interpro of the season, as Ulster take on Munster at Ravenhill on Friday.  If not quite ‘must see’, it’s the first game of the season that’s worth fixing your plans around.  Both teams have made promising starts with two wins apiece, including wins on the road that were contrary to expectations – well, ours anyway.  Both teams are, of course, under new coaching regimes and the early signs are positive in each case.  And each is allowed to field a couple more internationals under the player management programme.  So the phoney war is over and the real season is beginning.  It’s hard to know just how much can be read in to the first two games, such is the array of missing arsenal, so we’re hoping Friday’s game will allow us to infer a bit more about the direction these sides are heading in.

Have Munster got themselves a pair of centres?

It looks like it.  We’ve been a bit sniffy about Oooooooooooohhh James Downey in the past but while he may be a one-trick pony, it’s undeniably a good one.  Trucking the ball up in the 12 channel is one thing, but it’s Downey’s ability to offload that’s giving Munster’s attack shape.  What’s been particularly impressive is that the likes of Luke O’Dea are alive to the possibilities, and the whole Munster game plan looks joined-up for the first time in a long time.  Outside Downey, Laulala’s quick footwork and direct running look a potent threat, and he’s also keen to keep the ball alive.  He’s always been a quality footballer and, while his presence in the Munster 13 shirt might not be ideal for Keith Earls’ happiness index, he’s here and they might as well get the best of him.

Have Ulster got any fly-halves?

With Nick Williams starting very brightly and Robbie Diack reborn (apparently he’s ashamed of his performances last season and keen to make amends), our concerns over Ulster’s back row depth are receding.  Worries at fly-half remain, however.  Niall O’Connor has never really looked above Pro12 standard, so it’s a lot of pressure on young Paddy Jackson’s shoulders.  Does he have it?  His impact off the bench against the Ospreys has been enough to win him the starting jumper for the Munster game.  His opposite number is Ian Keatley (and a certain centurion ligind awaits on the bench), who has had a reasonably bright start to the season.  It’s a good opportunity to watch a couple of young Irish fly-halves who are looking for big seasons this year.

Donncha O’Callaghan – same-same but different?

Last season Stakhanov looked a fading force, devoid of power and no longer capable of the old manic energy that characterised his best days.  But his performance against Edinburgh was his best in years. Heck, he even carried and – no, really – passed the ball.  As a senior pro in a young-ish team, perhaps Penney is asking him to show more, well, seniority, and actually provide some leadership.  Apparently it’s not enough just to be really great craic – who knew?!  Can he roll back the years for one last hurrah, or was the Embra game a false dawn?  Oh, and congrats on the nipper, Donners!

Ulster – Northern Saffers or expanding their game?

Ulster’s Saffa-inspired gameplan got them to a Heineken Cup last season, but to stand still is to go backwards in modern rugby, so we anticipate they’ll have to expand a bit on the template in order to stay at that level this year.  They’ve a Kiwi coach now (albeit a gritty flanker type who was never known for his ball-playing ability) and Jared Payne brings a creative dimension to the full-back position that was missing last year.  Their back three on Friday is Trimble-Payne-Allen and Darren Cave is back in the team at 13.  It’s a backline with good strike threat, so let’s see if they’re prepared to play a few more phases and try and get the outside backs onto the ball and into space.

It’s a shame it’s not a week further out in the schedule, allowing the likes of O’Gara, Henry, Tuohy and O’Mahony the benefit of an additional week and a place in the First XV, but in any case, there’ll be plenty to chew over on Friday night at Ravers.

How Do You Solve A Problem Like Ian?

Saturday night saw another welcome development in the story of the precocious Ian Madigan.  Another Man of the Match display in a Pro12 game, and the try he set up for Fionn Carr showcased his luminous talent.  He has a fantastic, highly unusual (for Irish rugby) skillset: exceptional passing, breaking skills, eye for the tryline and now, solid place kicking [Aside: should Ferg be worried about this development?].  His weaknesses – game management and kicking from hand – are improving. Yes, we know he hasn’t successfully piloted a game through muck and rain in the style of the man he could potentially replace on the Ireland 22, Radge.  Last year he carved up the Pro12 and started his first Heineken Cup game, at home to Montpellier.  An international breakthrough seems inevitible this November.

But it’s becoming increasingly difficult to justify sitting him on the bench for the big games, no matter how well Jonny Sexton is playing.  It’s getting to the stage where Madigan needs to take the next step in his career – starting Heineken Cup games regularly.  WoC has been sniffy about complaints that Madigan ‘isn’t getting enough game time’ in the past, but this season, such is his quality, they will start to become relevant.  Some hard decisions will have to be made.

What is Joe to do? He has a settled and successful team on the pitch, the best 10 in Europe, but has a seriously talented younger chap kicking his heels on the bench. He needs to balance the present, the future, and the maximisation of his existing resources. Can he get Madigan into the team, and how?  Let’s look at the options:

  • Status Quo. In this scenario, Sexton starts the big games and Madigan the Pro12 ones when Deccie says Sexton has a headache. At the very least Madigan will need to be given significant minutes off the bench in Heineken Cup matches.
  • Sexton to 12. This was Deccie’s favoured ploy when he didn’t have the balls to drop Rog decided to play O’Gara and Sexton on the same pitch. To be fair, Sexton never looked uncomfortable, but yet, it never struck us as a viable long-term solution, and genuinely appeared as a sop to the bolshy Rog. Still, it fills what is aleady a problem position for Ireland, and is likely to become one for Leinster. Will Sexton, the best 10 in the Heineken Cup for the last two seasons and favourite to wear the Lions 10 jersey, be impressed with being taken out of the slot to accomodate the uncapped Madigan? In a word – no.
  • Madigan to 9. This has been floated before, most eloquently by the Mole, but Madigan, unlike Giteau, has never played 9. It’s worth a shot if you feel it’s a genuine long-term option, but Leinster and Ireland are well-served in this specialist position, and it would look like a sticking plaster solution to accommodate both men in one team.  And great as Madigan’s distribution is, passing from 10 is not the same as passing (and manging the tempo) from 9.
  • Madigan to 12.  With Ireland crying out for a silky distributor at 12, could Madigan, effectively, be the new Paddy Wallace?  He’d have even more space at 12 than at 10.  Ball-in-hand it looks a good fit, but the 12 channel is popoulated by monsters these days and while Madigan is a brave and competent defender, he probably lacks the sheer bulk to play there.
  • Madigan to 15. Really? With Bob and Isa Nacewa in the squad? And Andrew Conway as the resident promising youngster? Not a runner.
  • Stand Up And Fight. In this scenario, the incumbent (Sexton) gets unceremoniously benched for big games, and Madigan is thrown in to the first team. If Sexton becomes a bench-warmer at Leinster, he won’t be best pleased, and an iHumph-style flounce can’t be ruled out – could Sexy take over Rog’s red and green shirt?

No obvious solution then.  No doubt Ian Madigan is aware that he is working with the best coach of backs in Europe, and it’s almost certain that without Joe Schmidt coaching him, Madigan would not be as far in his development as he is.  It would be a wrench for him to leave all that behind, but this could be a summer for hard decisions.

Were he to look around, he would not lack for suitors.  Both Munster and Ulster would be in the picture.  Ulster are crying out for proven quality in the position and nobody knows how Paddy Jackson will go this season, while Niall O’Connor is squad player material.  At Munster, the world and its mother knows that a legend is nearing the end of his career, and while Keatley has started this season well, doubts remain as to his ability at the very top level.  Last year, you might have argued that Madigan’s skills could wither on the vine at those provinces, but the augurs are good under new coaching regimes.  Mads would most likely have offers from abroad too, probably including franchises from the Super XV, to which his game would be tailor-made.

Leinster would surely hate to see such a special talent slip through their fingers.  Somehow a way has to be found of getting him the necessary exposure to keep him happy and progressing at a suitable pace.  Talent this special is rare indeed.

2012/13 Season Preview: Ulster

Last Season: Ulster had their best year since 1999, reaching the Heineken Cup final on the back of epic victories over Leicester, Clermont and Munster, and a near-miss in the Marcel Michelin. The beating in the final took a little gloss off the year, but there is a satisfied glow in Belfast this summer.

League form started badly, recovered, then fell off a cliff after Thomond – the 6th place finish was probably a tad unfair on their general play, but they don’t have the depth to compete on both fronts.

In: Mark Anscombe (Auckland, coach), Tommy Bowe (Ospreys), Roger Wilson (Northampton Saints), Nick Williams (Aironi), Niall O’Connor (Connacht), Rob Herring (Stormers)

Out: Brian McLoughlin (errr … somewhere in Ravenhill that isn’t immediately clear; possibly washing linen), Ian Humphreys & Conor Gaston (London Irish), Pedrie Wannenbosh (Castres), Ian Whitten (Exeter Chiefs), Willie Faloon (Connacht), Simon Danielli & Stefan Terblanche (retired)

Last season will live long in Ulster memories – not only did they get to a HEC final, but they produced two of their best away performances of the professional era en route. Ulster were always seen as a soft touch away from Ravenhill, but their efforts in Clermont and Munster will be remembered for a long time.

On the flip side of that, Ulster started the season appallingly, and their efforts after Thomond Park were not great. The decision to change the fly-half after Humphreys poor performances in March and April did not work on the field (with respect to Paddy Jackson, he did ok, but looked too raw for the highest level), and back-fired spectacularly off it. The vision of having an experienced and competitive out-half nursing young Jackson through his formative years are in ashes after iHumph didn’t feel the love and jumped ship. It clearly still hurts (is there regret?), and must rank as a stunningly poor piece of man-management of an important player by the coaching staff.

Of course, Brian McLaughlin has moved on to be replaced by Mark Anscombe – while there is no doubt he was rather shabbily treated, we think he had taken Ulster as far as he could, and a new voice was needed. That new voice was received rather unenthusiastically after the usual Wayne Smith type speculation, and his record is less impressive than say, Rob Penney’s, but we have to assume Humph knows what he has done. As it stands, the starting 10 is likely to be Jackson, with O’Connor backing up – it’s pretty raw and shallow, and if it doesn’t work out for whatever reason, Ulster might struggle – it’s huge pressure at an early age on Jackson, let’s hope he copes with the expectation.

[Aside: this doesn’t imply Penney would have been a better man for the job – the Ulster job entails guiding a relatively young team driven by a core of grizzled leaders to European silverware, its a much more laissez-faire role than Penney’s activist re-shaping in Munster – a different personality and skillset would be needed. Penney would probably have been too hands-on for Ulster at this stage in their development.]

On the playing front, it’s been roughly a break-even summer on the transfer front. Bowe for Danielli is clearly a significant improvement, but O’Connor for iHumph is not, and while Roger Wilson for Wannebosh is not a like-for-like comparison, it’s replacing an older player with a record of good service with a younger one who understands the club mentality. Factor in that fly half and backrow are more important than wing, and perhaps Ulster didn’t do that well..

The loss through injury of Paddy McAllister is significant – not only are Ulster relying on Tom Court, but when Deccie borrows him to make half-time oranges for Cian Healy, they’ll have to play Callum Black. It’s terrible for a young promising player to miss a whole season at this stage of his development – we wish him the best. At tighthead, they have the opposite problem – Deccie will want to see a lot of Deccie Fitz and Adam Macklin, but Ulster haven’t signed John Afoa to make up the numbers. That ranks as a good problem. Expect to see Niall Annett start some Pro12 games when Rory Best is sunning himself in Maynooth – Nigel Brady and Rob Herring are also in the squad, but Annett is the future.

Second-row depth is good – Johann Muller and Dan Tuohy are one of the best starting pairs in the HEC, Lewis Stevenson developed at a rate of knots last year, and Iain Henderson is the coming lock of Irish rugby. Henderson will probably play more at 6 this season, both to get experience and to cover a thin sector, but he’ll be challenging for a starting spot within the next 2-3 years.

The second real problem area for Ulster (the first being loose-head and the third out-half) is the back-row. The starting trio of Stephen Ferris, Chris Henry and Roger Wilson are top class – Fez is incomparable, Henry was the stand-out openside in the Heineken Cup last season and his injury played a large part in Leinster’s ease of victory in the final, while Roger Wilson has been swimming at the top level for three years now. But behind those, it’s a steep drop-off to Mike McComish, Robbie Diack and Nick Williams – ouch! Williams was a mystifying signing – he was poor at Munster, and struggled to get his game at Aironi – why the coaching staff thought he’d be the man to backup the classy Ulster starters when silverware is the aim is unclear. The transfer of Willie Falloon to Connacht has further thinned out the back row – he hasn’t exactly been shooting the lights out, but he could be a useful Pro12 asset.

Ruan Pienaar is likely to be absent until the HEC starts due to his Boks role, so Paul Marshall will have a chance to get some momentum going again – he was brilliant when asked last year, but his opportunities were restricted at the later stages of the HEC. Its worth mentioning that Marshall-Pienaar looks an obvious solution to the outhalf issues, but Pienaar came to Ulster to prove himself a specialist 9, so he will not want to move out on a regular basis.

Ulster’s three-quarter line looks well-stocked and balanced – Paddy Wallace and Darren Cave both had their best professional seasons last year and coming kids Nevin Spence, Luke Marshall and Chris Farrell (Ooooooohh) will provide backup. Tommy Bowe has come home to contest the wing slots with Andrew Trimble and Craig Gilroy – Trimble is the most prosaic, but his boshes off the wing were a key setup point for Ulster attacks last season, Exhibit A being Gilroy’s try in Thomond – whoever misses out will be an improvement on the departed Ian Whitten in squad terms. Jared Payne is hoping to put an injury-hit first season behind him and, allied to the arrival of Bowe, the ouside backs look much more threatening this season – Terblanche was as safe as houses last year, but wasn’t exactly Isa Nacewa on the counter. Adam D’Arcy provides pace and broken-field expertise combined with an inability to pass off the bench.  Can Ulster develop their Saffer-inspired gameplan to cut them loose?

Ulster have a benign HEC draw this season – all three home games will be won, and the timing of the fixtures means Castres away will be targeted. We think they can pick up that and another win plus enough bonus points to win the pool and earn a home quarter-final – the first knockout HEC game at Ravers since 1999. That would represent progress. After that, its a question of the Lady Luck. If Leinster and Clermont clear one or the other out of the HEC groups, a path could open up for Ulster to go further. But that itself may depend on the fitness of the starting pack and halves – it’s hard to imagine Ulster could survive long stretches while relying on the likes of Black, Diack, Williams and O’Connor.

In the Pro12, Ulster have tended to pick up momentum in the spring due to the lack of front-line internationals in their squad – one of the results of their success and development is that the likes of Deccie Fitz, Tuohy, Henry, Cave and Gilroy may get Deccie-d, and remove the March safety valve from consideration.

Verdict: The lack of depth in key positions is our biggest problem with Ulster. The loss of iHumph has not been adequately addressed, and the backrow unit has not been improved over the summer. The three-quarter line is now stacked, but getting the ball back there in decent shape is the challenge.

The front-liners are strong enough to go far in the HEC, but a win might be beyond them. If they get a bit of fortune, another HEC final is achievable, but a home quarter final should be the target for the season. It’s hard to look beyond that; if they get it, they should have a semi-final in them, then who knows. The under-powered backrow backups are going to be a problem in the Pro12 – Ulster are likely to be without more players in February and March than in previous years, and we can’t see them making the hay like they usually do. We think they will miss out on the play-offs for the second successive season.

National Game Plans, Political Infighting and Corporate Days Out

Well, that just about wraps up our summer series.  Thanks for all the comments and interaction, we hope you enjoyed the trip down memory lane.  For us anyway, it wasn’t just an exercise in dewy-eyed nostalgia, but an attempt to put in a wider context where Irish rugby has found itself and how it got there.  Because, looking back, Irish rugby is in an entirely new place and experiencing something it’s never had to deal with before.

In 2012, Irish rugby is more fragmented than it’s ever been.   We’ve had spells of woeful inadequacy, but the rugby public suffered as one.  We’ve also had periods of greatness, and the joy was shared in by all.  In 2012, your view of the past season is almost certainly coloured by what province you come from.  Leinster fans had a great time.  They’ll be able to look past the national team’s failures and their memory banks will be dominated by the Heineken Cup win and great rugby their team played.  Ulster fans likewise had a memorable year.  But Munster fans had neither provincial nor international success to celebrate and probably took the national team’s ills harder  because they had little to compensate for it.

The rise of the provinces has been a key ingredient in the success of Irish rugby over the last decade – we hope this came out clearly in the eight game series.  They have pooled talent into an appropriate number of teams to ensure competitiveness, brought new fans into rugby grounds and – most importantly – given us historic days out that won’t be forgotten any time soon.  And they’ve won shedloads of silver.  The IRFU has been rightly praised for getting its structures right in that the provinces exist as entities within their own right, but ultimately feed the national team.  The idea that provincial success is now detrimental to the national team – peddled by certain journalists looking to justify a pre-conveiced opinion – is simply ridiculous.  It is nonsensical to suggest that if Leinster, Ulster and Munster were struggling to get out of their pools that Team Ireland would somehow be better off.  We reject it utterly.

The IRFU and Kidney need to make sure they don’t allow themselves to go down this path.  Indications are that they are already doing so.  It looks as if the provinces have grown to the stage where the IRFU does not know what to do with them.  In the last twelve months we’ve had the new player succession rules, some pretty spotty low-budget recruiting, and from Kidney, sounds about the provinces not generating enough match-time for certain players and how he’d ideally have the players in camp rather than competing in Cup finals.  They need to be very careful here.  French rugby is currently marooned in a club vs. country wasteland.  In the last Six Nations they won two of five games and the Top 14 was unwatchable this year.  If France – with its huge player pool, wonderful history, passionate supporter base and superb youth sports programs – can be brought so low by political in-fighting, what chance does a small country like Ireland have?

So much commentary (including our own) is fixated on Kidney’s selection and tactics, but there is a bigger picture: if Deccie is going to see the provinces as a nuisance to be battled with, then he has no chance of succeeding.  Our understanding is that his relationship with the provincial coaches is close to negligible.  This is a road doomed to failure.  The coach who does succeed will be the one who can harness what the provinces are doing for his own gain.

It is tempting at this point to rush towards Muddy Williams’ touted concept of the ‘national game plan’, apparently the approach taken in New Zealand.  But such notions appear fanciful, in the medium term at least.  The Irish talent pool just isn’t deep enough.  The coaches at Ulster, Munster, Leinster and Connacht each have to cut their cloth according to what’s available.  For example, Ireland has just two top-grade fly-halves, and they play and see the game very differently.  Each is good enough to have the team’s style of play built around their talents.  But it would be bizarre to tell Rob Penney to make Munster play more like Leinster, or to ask Schmidt to get Sexton to kick the corners a bit more.   Their jobs are tough enough as it is.  And who decides what the national game plan is anyway?  Presumably the national team coach.  So, Kidney telling Schmidt how to play rugby?  It sounds like a practical joke.  It just doesn’t seem workable on any level.

There’s no obvious solution, but it’s hard to escape the thought that Kidney could do more to embrace what’s happening in provinces, especially Leinster.  But just as Eddie O’Sullivan was unwilling to follow a Munster-based approach in spite of picking so many of their number, Kidney seems to be trying to get players who clearly so enjoy what they do at provincial level to play a very different way.  Throw in his mantra-like repetition of the venerated status of test rugby, and you’re looking at a coach that’s increasingly stubborn and embattled.  It’s no platform for success.  Kidney needs help from the IRFU here, too.  It would help if the provinces didn’t feel they were being dictated to in terms of who they can play and when.  All that said, both Joe Schmidt is on record as having welcomed the ‘increased dialogue’ between national and provincial coaches last week, while Rob Penney enjoyed a ‘robust talk’ with Kidney on arriving at Munster.  Maybe the tide is turning, slowly.

Secondly, the players, Kidney and the IRFU need to make an investment to win back an increasingly disillusioned support base.  If the IRFU is wondering why the provinces have such pulling power, they might just take a look at the product they provide: cheap, accessible tickets to tightly packed grounds, family-friendly set-ups, a strong bond with the players, away trips to the South of France and great rugby towns like Bath and Northampton.  Little wonder that the more corporate, expensive and often dull Six Nations is not terribly attractive.  Casting one’s mind back over the last few years, you have to go back to 2007 to recall the last genuinely thrilling Six Nations.  Sure, the 2009 Grand Slam was incredible, but looking at it objectively, it wasn’t a classic series by any means.

Supporting Ireland is no craic at all these days.  Tom Fox wrote in a recent piece for Setanta that nobody really ‘owns’ the national team.  Fans will never allow their provincial team to be slagged by another team’s mob (go onto any of the fans’ forums for proof), but everyone is happy to dump on the national team.  There are easy scapegoats for all.  Leinster and Ulster fans blame the coach no matter what, while Munster fans see a Leinster-dominated team and blame the players.  It’s tiresome.  Some effort needs to be made to bring a bit of fun, a bit of excitement into the national team.

When you watch YouTube videos of Shaggy’s try in Twickenham or BOD’s hat-trick in Paris, there’s a sense that they were more innocent times and that something’s been lost.  It’s a sad day when suporters see the Six Nations, such a great old tournament with such rich history, as something to be got over.  In 2008, after Munster almost beat the Kiwis, ROG said that ‘maybe we need to buy into the green shirt a bit more’.  And maybe the same applies to the fans today.  We could all do with falling in love with the national team again.  But the powers that be have to make it easier for us.

Stealing our jobs

The days might have gone when Irish rugby folk looked on in wide-eyes amazement when Aussies came over to tell them it wasn’t the best idea to booze when recovering from injury, but we still are in thrall to the glamourous tanned lads who, in many ways, tell the story of Irish professional rugby as well as any Irish players. John Langford leading the troops through moats of molten lava in the south of France, Stanley Wright barbecuing Fido before the pound got him, and Clinton Shifcofske fumbling Garryowens on a sodden Belfast night are all part of Irish rugby lore, and Isa, Dougie and Ruan have picked up the baton, albeit in a rather more effective fashion.

In the context of the IRFU coming over all Tea Party about immigrants, we though it would be a good time to review the provinces’ cohort of evil women-stealing job-doing welfare-scrounging diversity-bringing native-educating mind-expanding Johnny Foreigners plying their nefarious trade in green Erin.

Recall for this season Ulster, Munster and Leinster are allowed four NIQs (players who can’t play for Ireland) and one “Project Player” (someone who will be eligible for Irish selection after a period of time), and Connacht are allowed “something else” – the technical term for us not actually knowing the formal arrangement.

Munster

NIQs: BJ Botha (tighthead prop), Wian du Preez (loosehead prop), Casey Laulala (centre), Doug Howlett (ligind winger). Project player: CJ Stander (flanker)

After years of grim recruitment abroad (Nick Williams, Sam Tuitupou, Will Chambers et al), Munster have probably surprised even themselves by ending up with a very useful set of foreigners. BJ came down from Ulster last year, reputedly as the best-paid NIQ in the country, and locked the Munster scrum in a way it hadn’t been in years – along with POC, Rog and Keith Earls, he is one of Munster’s irreplacables. On the other side of the scrum Wian du Preez quietly does the business, and is on a longer contract than Botha, so might be around for a while, as he is the only non-Irish loosehead starting for a province. Not much needs to be said about Doug Howlett – if he can teach Simon Zebo 10% of his defensive positioning knowledge, the Corkman is in for a long career.

Casey Laulala is a more curious case – he is exclusively a 13, which is of course the position that Munster’s best back, Irishman Keet Earls, wants to play from now on. It’s unlikely they brought Laulala, a very useful player, in to cover the games when Deccie has Earls wrapped in cotton wool, so you’d imagine someone will play out of position … let’s hope it ain’t Earls. CJ Stander signed last week, and looks a really good fit – a former U-20 Springbok captain, his strength is his ball carrying, a facet of the game in which Munster were notably deficient last season. The Bulls are unhappy to see him go, but we would eat every one of our hats if ever pulled on an Irish jersey – a man who is being lined up for a long Bok career does not walk away for the prospect of playing with Niall Ronan and James Cawlin – he’ll be back on the highveldt in time for RWC15.

Rory McIlroy Rating: 4/5 – a good tighthead prop (the best-paid import in Ireland), the All Blacks all time leading try scorer and a Springbok underage star? Clearly some prominent local celebrity is funding this cadre. Our money is on Pat Shortt.

Ulster

NIQs: John Afoa (tighthead prop), Johann Muller (second row), Ruan Pienaar (scrum half), Not Nick Williams (tackle bag holder). Project Player: Jared Payne (full back)

Ulster’s cohort of fancy Springboks was the envy of certain prominent parochial journalists last year, and with good reason – Ruan Pienaar was the stand-out scrum-half in Europe, Pedrie Wannenburg wowed the galleries with his sumptuous offloads, Stefan Terblanche wellied the ball into orbit and Johann Muller led the team with granite certainty from the second row. Wannenbosh and Terreblanche have moved on, but the others remain. Pienaar is genuinely one of the rugby world’s superstars, and has played for his country in 5 different positions – his game management from the base of the scrum is matched only by Dmitri Yachvili and Will Genia, and his goal-kicking is lethal and reliable. Muller is one of Ulster’s pack leaders, and sometime forwards coach – the hope is he continues to have huge influence on the younger guys coming through – the turnaround in Dan Tuohy from Gloucester reserve to dynamic international lock is at least partly attributable to Muller’s excellence.

John Afoa, despite a hard time in the scrums in the HEC final (kudos to DJ Church), is a destructive and aggressive prop – at times he seems to be everywhere around the park. He’s come into the spotlight recently as the evil genius who stunts Deccie Fitzpatrick’s development, but he will remain first choice at Ulster next year. Which is something Nick Williams will assuredly not be. The ineffective splinter gatherer, formerly of Munster and Aironi, is a laughably bad signing – he can only play 8 and will be behind the returning Roger Wilson (an underrated player and great bit of recruitment). Let us hope he wasn’t Anscombe’s call, because, if he was, its a pretty inauspicious beginning.

Jared Payne has switched from injured NIQ to project player now that Robbie Diack is Irish. He played only 3 times last season then crocked himself – he had a reputation as a daring counter-attacker in Auckland, and that’s something Ulster missed last year – Craig Gilroy apart, the outside backs were rather bosh-tastic.

Rory McIlroy Rating: 3.5/5 Unless Caroline Wozniacki has spent all of Rory’s fortune, there is no good reason he would fund the signing of Nick Williams – Humph has to take the blame for that one

Leinster

NIQs: Isa Nacewa (winger), Heinke van der Merwe (loosehead prop), Quinn Roux (second row), TBA. Project player: Richardt Strauss (hooker)

Isa Nacewa is mentioned in the same breath as Jim Williams and Dr Phil as the most influential foreigner to grace Irish soil, and rightly so – his outlook and professionalism have coloured Leinster’s approach under Joe Schmidt and his awareness of space is a thing of beauty; the try against Leicester in last years’ HEC quarter-final was one of the best we have seen in person. The rest of Leinster’s cohort are in the engine room – Heinke VDM comes on for DJ Church when he gets tired in big games, and mans the Pro12 shift with power and efficiency – he’s basically a prototype Afrikaner prop who can scrummage well and hit rucks hard. Beside him, little Richard Strauss is finalising the words to Ireland’s Call – he’s  qualified in the autumn and will offer some good hands and the support lines of a former flanker.

Leinster had two vacancies following the departures of Nathan White and Mat Berquist, and the first signing is underwhelming to say the least. While Quinn Roux has talent (he was ahead of Eben Etzebeth in the Stormers depth chart before getting injured this year), but it’s an odd signing – it seems he is over here on a gap year and no more – it stinks of penny-pinching, and Leinster are kicking the second row can further down the road – Leo Cullen is no longer top level, and Devin Toner isn’t quite there – this line is a flashing red light for next season. Let’s hope he doesn’t look upon the gap year as an excuse to head to Coppers on a Monday night. We have no insider knowledge of who the TBA is likely to be (or if there will be one), but if the last two guys the IRFU have shelled out for (Williams and Roux) are any guide, a cheap bosher will be making half-time oranges in D4 next year.

Rory McIlroy Rating: 2/5 Bono it ain’t.  The mystery celeb who is funding Leinster’s expansion has been credit-crunched (Johnny Ronan?) – Quinn Roux is a mystifying signing, and the AN Other at this stage of the year is not a good sign

Connacht

NIQs: Ettienne Reynecke (hooker), Rodney Ah You (tighthead prop), George Naoupu (number 8), Dan Parks (outhalf), Fetu’u Vainikolo (bosher). Project Player: Nathan White (tighthead prop), Danie Poolman (winger)

There seems to be a bit more leeway given to imports in the west – Connacht have 5 NIQs and 2 project players. The standout member is former Scotland stand-off Dan Parks – his international career may have ended in ignominy, but he made the most of his opportunities, and was an intelligent and committed international player, who was outstanding in the 2010 Six Nations. Parks will bring poise and experience to a squad thin on guys who have played at the highest level – he will kick goals and will look excellent in green. It could be a precursor of a move into coaching, and this would be Connacht’s gain – he strikes us a classic progressive Aussie coach – Matt Williams with a monster boot if you like.

The (evil) tighthead prop Nathan White has come in from Leinster. He gained positive reviews from his time in D4 but if he ever starts ahead of Ronan Loughney, Deccie will blame him for Ireland’s woes. Rodney Ah You is another one who can be blamed for the Twickers debacle, given he wears 3. The rest of the squad is composed largely of South Sea boshers, and it’s hard to see how this benefits Connacht, or Ireland – its basically dead money that could be invested in young Irish lads.

Rory McIlroy Rating: 1.5/5 Dan Parks aside, the local boy who made it big worldwide (member of Westlife?) is doing this on the cheap – either that or he has a fetish for the bosh – Ooooooooooooooooooooohh!!

Season in Review: Ulster

It’s been a pretty memorable season for Ulster – their best campaign in 13  years, some unforgettable games, huge strides made by the team – but you would be pushed to say it’s been an unmitigated success. Taking only the Heineken Cup, its been an A, but everything else (league, off-field activities) is more like B. Now that the champagne and tears have tried up after Twickers, a more mature realisation is taking place that Ulster will need to continue the hard work if they are to repeat, or improve on, 2011-12.

In Europe, it’s hard to see how they could have done better – a character-filled grind at home to Clermont, a Tiger-tonking and a crucial point in Clermont, followed by an historic win in Thomond, a memorable occasion in the Palindrome, and the trip to Twickenham, where the performance was good … on a stage where merely being good is not enough. But no shame, far from it, plenty of pride and lots to build on.

In the league, not so much. Sixth place in the Pro12 reflects the lack of quality of Ulster’s backups, and was holed beneath the waterline by 4 successive losses in September/October. In the context of the HEC run, it’s probably just acceptable, but no more, and certainly won’t be next season, when another step forward is needed.

The most impressive thing about this year from Ulster was the sheer volume of players who had their best season to date at the province – Tom Court, Rory Best, Dan Tuohy, Fez, Chris Henry, Pedrie Wanneberg, Paddy Wallace and Darren Cave. Add this to the breakthroughs by Declan Fitzpatrick, Paddy Jackson, Craig Gilroy and Iain Henderson and the steady hands on the tiller of Muller, Pienaar and Terblanche and reason for this years progression is obvious – the players dammit.

Ulster are now an an altitude where they feel comfortable and at home – challenging for trophies and primacy among the provinces. The burning desire pushing Ulster forward in recent years has been the success of their compatriots in Europe – Leinster and (particularly) Munster’s achievments have not gone down well in a province used to being Number 1. What Ulster desperately need to prove  is that this year not a flash in the pan – they need to consolidate their second ranking in the inter-provincial sphere and start looking for viable ways to target Leinster.

Ulster’s signature performance in the 2010-11 season was a mucky and ugly victory over a mucky and ugly Biarritz, and the defining one was a lightweight and inexperienced capitulation to a Northampton team that looks worse after their own follow-up year (note to self: don’t be the Saints). This year, the defining matches were of a much higher level – the slaughtering of Leicester Tigers in Ravers, the near-miss in the Auvergne, the epic victory in Munster, the nervy win in front of 50k in the Palindrome and the respectable showing against the team of the era in London.

Not only does each of those games drive the team forward, but it ticks a box that every team needs if it is to set down a longer-term marker. Think of Munster’s matches in those categories (Gloucester 2002 – slaughter, Northampton 2000 – near-miss, Leinster 2006 – epic victory, Biarritz 2006 – nervy win) and Leinster’s (Toulouse 2006 – slaughter, Munster 2006 – defeat to team of era, Quins 2009 – nervy win, Munster 2009 – epic victory) and they are key checkpoints in the evolution of the team.

So, how are Ulster positioned to continue moving forward?

The most obvious risk is in the coaching staff. Ulster have the luxury of a permanent administration, led by Humph and Shane Logan. Beneath them, there is Neil Doak, Gary Longwell and now former head coach Brian McLaughlin. And contained in their somewhere is Rory Best and Johann Muller. This strong base ensures that the new coach coming in won’t upset the applecart too much, and, indeed, should seamlessly fit in. One has to presume Mark Anscombe knows that Humph is the boss with the grand vision, and that his role is confined to picking the team and complying with edicts from Deccie as regards player availability.

You would suspect that the new regime will not blow up in Ulster faces, given the continuity upstairs and in playing personnel, particularly bigger names like Best, Muller, Fez, Pienaar, Wallace and Trimble, but it’s still a risk. Ulster are second seeds for the HEC next season, and, as such, are likely to have an easier draw than this year, but it doesn’t do to start slowly.

On the playing side, Ulster will be losing Kyriacou (replaced hopefully by Niall Annett), Wannenburg (Roger Wilson), iHumph (Niall O’Connor it appears – eek), Simon Danielli (Tommy Bowe) and Stefan Terblanche (Jared Payne, who he was covering in any case). We’d say on aggregate the P&L on these deals is slightly positive for Ulster, offset by the fact the two losses are in key positions – 10 and 8, with 10 the biggest concern.

While Ulster’s front 5 depth is decent and improving (Court/McAlister, Best/Annett, Afoa/Fitzpatrick/Macklin, Muller/Stevenson, Tuohy/Henderson), and back 5 depth is pretty good (Wallace/L Marshall, Cave/Spence, Gilroy/Trimble/Bowe/Gaston, Payne/D’arcy); but from 6-10 they look shallow.

After Ferris, Henry, Wilson, Pienaar, Jackson you are looking at only Diack, Henderson (double-jobbing at 6), Paul Marshall and Niall O’Connor. Given Ferris isn’t going to give you more than 15 games a year and Pienaar’s stated ambition to play 9, allied to the fact Jackson surely can’t play much more than 15 games himself, you need to accept that Robbie Diack and Niall O’Connor are going to play a lot of games for Ulster. Without wishing to wail on them too much, Diack and O’Connor played a lot of games in 2008/09, and that year’s standard of play is unacceptable at this stage in Ulster’s development.

Anyway, let’s finish on a high note – its been a fantastic year for the province, chock-full of memorable moments, breakthrough players and huge advances. We’ll never forget it, and, lets hope its built on next year. Now, is it true the Chinese symbol for risk and opportunity are the same?!

Season to remember: Darren Cave began the season behind Nevin Spence, and ends it only behind Brian O’Driscoll – the breakthrough season Cave had always threatened

Season to forget: In our Ulster season preview, we said Willie Faloon was a classy, genuine openside who had a chance to nail down and balance a rather pedestrian backrow. In the event, it was Henry who became the genuine groundhog, and Falloon was largely anonymous and got bossed badly by Ross Rennie on the big stage. He will hopefully redeem himself next year … in Connacht

Best match: Thomond Park – one of the great HEC knock-out games. Had no ball, and scored only 3 points from Munster’s half. Maniacal defence and frenzied tackling did the rest

Best performance: the away loss in Clermont – came as close as anyone to breaking the remarkable Marcel Michelin home record – may have been able to close it out had they the Munster win under their belts at that stage

Worst performance: Take your pick of any of the games prior to the big boys returning from NZ. We’ll have the home loss to Treviso, thanks

Thanks for the memories: Pedrie Wannenbosh – originally thought of as an agricultural contact merchant, his incredible hands against Leicester won’t be forgotten easily

See you next season: Tommy Bowe returns home, and, oddly for someone who has achieved so much in his time away, will need to work for his place. He’ll get it though, and he’ll be brilliant.

Your coaches … give them to me, now

Having looked backwards in some detail at the Munster and Ulster progress in the last few years, it seems logical to have a look forward, especially in the context of the vacant hot-seats in Belfast and Limerick Cork Limerick. Both provinces will be linked with the usual posse of out-of-work-for-ages supremos e.g. John Kirwan, unavailable pipe-dreams e.g. Conor O’Shea and Desperate Dans e.g. Eddie.

But which job would a man want if both were offered? In fact, how do both jobs stack up? Lets get down and dirty and take a 3 year horizon.

Squad (Re-)Building

Ulster: Ulster’s squad has some tidy Saffers, a couple of Irish superstars and a cadre of young and hungry Irish talent. The squad should be expected to remain pretty settled in the medium term, and should form a good base to work with.   Tommy Bowe and Roger Wilson are coming back next season, which represents an endorsement of the province.  The major risk is the IRFU following through on the blame-the-foreigners act – Muller, Pienaar and Afoa would be virtually impossible to replace.  Delivering greater strength in depth is the first call of duty for a new coach; Ulster don’t have the calibre of reserves that Munster and Leinster can call upon.

Munster: A long to-do list beckons, in spite of the work done by McGahan in the last year. Has Rog three years left? Unlikely, even if he was that way inclined (which we doubt). How does one manage the transition from one of the greatest Irish fly halves in history to … er … Ian Keatley? Tough. First job on the list is pruning a bloated squad – the likes of Duncan Williams, Billy Holland and Scott Deasy are among the likely candidates for the chop / N18 to Galway.

Expectation Levels:

Ulster: High, but realistic. Ulster will demand some silverware in 3 years – a Rabo in year 1 or 2 followed by a HEC is the likely target. After two successive quarter-finals, a move into the Munster/Leinster league of being perennial knock-out stage merchants is the next step, as well as earning a home QF.

Munster: Sky-high, and not always realistic. Such is the level of success attained by the Liginds that the Munster faithful demand a HEC quarter-final and a challenge for the Rabo every year as a bare minimum.  Even if the new coach achieves that, they will not be considered a success without a HEC. We could poke fun by talking about honesty of effort and backs to the wall, but that guff belongs to Farrelly – it’s achievements that count in Thomond Park.

Set-up and Coaching:

Ulster: Still training at Newforge, and awaiting the sort of dedicated training centre and professional backup that Munster and Leinster enjoy at UL and UCD. The irony of Ireland’s leading sports science research mostly coming from Ulster (largely due to the GAA) is not lost on Humph etc. Ulster’s support staff and specialist coaches need beefing up, although a new coach may bring some of those.

Munster: Top facilities at UL, but half the squad is based in Cork – the bi-location is not ideal. The real problem for a prospective coach is, ironically given its where Munster have improved so markedly this season, the forwards coach (assuming here Axel is not the new head coach). Any new coach will have to accept Axel as forwards coach whether they want him or not – that said, he appears fit for purpose.

External Influence:

Ulster: Humph is a hands-on kind of guy, but one suspects that once the new coach and his team are in place, they will be left to it. Brian McLaughlin was left alone until Humph knew he was being replaced. The Ravenhill faithful will support the new coach unconditionally, for the first year at least, given he has the Humph seal of approval. There will be pressure to succeed, but there will not be interference. The rugby media in Ulster are generally rather tame, and without a record of success in a while, everything is still taken as a bonus.

Munster: Axel is regarded as the man in waiting by the suits and the fans (why do you think Ludd was only offered a 1 year deal?) – if things go badly, sections of the crowd will be looking for the coach’s head, and for Axel to step in. Is a top-name coach going to be interested in coming in for a couple of years, when he knows he’ll be moved on after that?  Now try transitioning Radge out of the team – the fans will only be on one side. The media can be fawning, but it’s conditional – if the Liginds like you, you’re in, otherwise, you’re out.

Conclusion:

It’s pretty obvious which job is more appealing to a big name coach, and it’s not the Munster one. In fact, it’s arguable that there are no positives for a non-Munster coach going in (other than the prestige of managing a great franchise), and that anyone with sense wouldn’t touch the job with a bargepole. That being as it is, the Munster hierarchy may be best off appointing Axel a year before they intended to and give him the best backs coach and coaching team they can get. Is it true Eddie is free (don’t snigger, he is an excellent technical backs coach)?

Up in Ulster, the possiblities are myriad – once you meet Humph’s criteria. One suspects Humph will want a young and hungry coach who will bring a new approach and ambition to the squad, like Joe Schmidt at Leinster. A big name like Wayne Smith may bring too much pressure and the risk of going off-message – better to get someone who Humph can trust and who will understand the task at hand. Someone like, say, Matt Sexton? As a former hooker, Sexton could take the forwards and bring in an experienced backs coach to help out. Someone like Eddie (we told you to stop sniggering).

Follow the Money, Jimmy

As a brief follow-up to our Ulster piece earlier in the week, we thought we would add one point, and address one raised several times in follow-ups.

Addition: the Bob Paisley Rule

We here at Whiff of Cordite are followers of the Bob Paisley Rule – that is, change from a position of strength. Make your adjustments on your own terms and don’t let events overtake you (like when Bob Paisley jettisoned European Footballer of the Year Keggy Keegle for young Kenny Dalglish and improved his already all-conquering Liverpool side).
Humph has ticked this box at Ulster by recognising a potential weakness and addressing it pre-emptively. This stands in contrast to, say, Ludd at Munster. We’ll be posting on Ludd’s rather mixed legacy shortly, but he put off changing a successful Munster side until he was forced to i.e. after Toulon tore them a new one. His work since has been better, but he has never given the impression of having caught up with himself or being in control of the transition.

Follow-up: Mo’ Money, Mo’ Problems

More than once after the Ulster piece, people brought up money – how were Ulster able to develop so quickly, and sign such superstars? The Rory McIlroy blank cheque rumour came up, as did talk of some “private funding” – both nonsense. When considering Ulster budget, there are some important points to note:
  • Time lag. Contracts, by their very nature, are backward looking. Thats why Conor Murray, until very recently, was on an Academy contract, and the man he was keeping on the bench, Tomas O’Leary, was on a central one worth multiples of Murray’s. Murray’s contract was based on potential, O’Leary’s on a Lions selection in 2009. Ulster’s team, if you exclude centrally contracted and overseas players, are, for the most part, young and have no great record of success. Thus, they are cheaper. For example, Dan Tuohy is probably on a fraction of Donncha’s wage, yet has been much more effective this season.
  • Central Contracts. This is a particularly muddy issue that is deliberately shrouded in mystery.  The IRFU acts as paymaster for a number of Irish international players, but the hows and why’s of who has one and who doesn’t are puzzling in the extreme.  Brian O’Driscoll has one, of course, and so does Paul O’Connell.  No surprise there.  But so does Paddy Wallace.  Denis Leamy, Munster’s reserve flanker, recently signed a new one, in a piece of news which surprised everyone.  Sean O’Brien doesn’t have one.  Neither does Eoin Reddan.  The extent to which the IRFU directly pay the players from the various provinces is shrouded in mystery.
  • Hard currency. Leinster and Munster players get paid in Euros, but Ulster players get paid in sterling. The Belfast equivalent of a Dublin €100k salary is about £60k, that is €70k at current market rates. Ulster players generally cost less due to being in the sterling zone.
  • Imports. Now let’s address the overseas players issue. It’s fair to say Ulster’s cadre of foreigners are of a higher class than Leinster or Munster – Ulster have 3 genuine stars and a former Springbok captain. But do they cost much more and give Ulster an unfair advantage? Let’s have a look:
    • John Afoa: Afoa is a world class tight head prop. World class tight heads props are worth their (considerable) weight in gold, and are remunerated accordingly, with something akin to danger money added on. Afoa would be on a comparable wage to Mike Ross and BJ Botha
    • Johann Muller: Muller is a World Cup winning former Springbok captain. But he was never a starter in his Bok career or even a regular on the bench, and he is in his early 30s. As such, Muller is not a top dollar player – its conceivable he is paid less than Nathan Hines was
    • Pedrie Wannenburg. Ulster’s back row bosher is a regular try scorer and his offloads in the HEC this year were both delicious and unexpected. But in reality, he is a bit of a journeyman, and the Boshiership is crammed with players like Wannenburg. Suffice to say, he’s not going to be shooting the lights out in the payslip department
    • Simon Danielli: Is rubbish
    • Ruan Pienaar & Jared Payne: Are top class. Here is where Ulster have an advantage. Leinster and Munster each have one genuine superstar – Nacewa and Howlett. Ulster have 1.5 – Pienaar is one of the best players in the world, but Payne is not there yet. Payne wasn’t considered to be on the All Black radar despite his exploits with Auckland. Still, he has the potential to be explosive and could yet work out to be Ulster’s Isa Nacewa

So, Ulster players are younger and are thus on less money, and get paid in sterling. On the flip side, they have Jared Payne against, say, Matt Berquist or Save Tokula.

We don’t think the overall wage bill is any higher than Leinster or Munster.

Ulster Says … All Round to Humph’s for some Plotting!

It is with interest that we have read about and watched the shenanigans in Ulster of late – Brian McLaughlin is being binned after three largely succesful years as head coach – sorry, he is “being offered long-term stability” as, er, assistant to Gary Longwell in the coaching staff.  The full sordid affair is laid bare in this cringe-inducing press conference:

Humph is being rightly panned for the ramshackle nature of the announcement, which stands in great contrast to the majority of his work as director of rugby at Ravenhill. However, this Ulster fan sees some method in the apparent madness – since 2007, Ulster have been on a journey which they hope will culminate in bringing the HEC back to Belfast – I’m sure no-one needs reminded that’s where it first landed on Irish shores – and they need a boost to get there.

Let’s start this tale in October 2006 – Ulster are reigning Celtic League champions, and have opened their Heineken Cup campaign with a 30-3 stuffing of Toulouse. The HEC itself is enjoying a well-sodden winter in Limerick and Ulster have genuine ambitions of adding it to the Celtic League trophy come May.

Fast forward 12 months later – Ulster have only won one more HEC game, endured a disappointing finish to the CL and have lost coach Mark McCall after being thumped by Gloucester at Former Fortress Ravenhill. By Christmas, they are bottom of the CL and at their lowest ebb. The province that swept all before them in the 1980s were now worse than Connacht. It was Time Zero.

Into this mess walked Matty Williams, a man whose perfect teeth and blow-dried hair couldn’t fail to make a difference. The players were wracked by failure and crushed under the pressure of trying to live up to Munster. Matty came in, with his familiar sunny disposition – a bit of “come on lads, you aren’t that bad, have some fun” got Ulster stabilised. The playing staff were decimated by the summer exodus in 2008, but Williams managed to hold on to Paddy Wallace, Andrew Trimble and Rory Best – the Ulstermen who, along with young Stephen Ferris, would constitute the core of the side and give some much-needed continuity.

Williams’ next season was fairly underwhelming, but it was clear that Ulster seemed to have got the ship moving in the right direction – Matty’s job was essentially done. There was genuine shock when he got the boot for the Humph/Longwell/Doak/McLaughlin axis, but it was exactly what Ulster needed – a structure was put in place that would work to build the club off the pitch and in the Academy, and it was being run by a cult hero. The identity of the provincial set-up was now firmly one of Ulster, with the management, the coaching staff and the backbone of the team all local, and driven by the memory of 1999.

Upgrade work at Ravenhill, better (albeit, not good) marketing efforts to attract a wider fan base, using the available financial muscle and squad upgrades were Humph’s job. Nurturing a crop of highly talented youngsters was Longwell and Doak’s job; and picking the team and winning games was McLaughlin’s. But it was fairly clear where the power lay – and he was upstairs watching his brother in the 10 shirt.

Every season under McLaughlin, Ulster have improved on the pitch. In his first HEC, they won in England (when Andrew Trimble out-Bathed Bath) and but for playing Stade a day late in front of nobody may have picked up the extra point they needed to sneak into the knockout stages. The next year, they beat Biarritz, did the double over Oooooooooooooooohh Bath, and made the quarter-finals for the first time since they won the thing. A regret-laden defeat to Northampton was the perfect preparation for this year.

Until the absolutely stinking draw was made that is – Clermont and Leicester would be the teams Ulster would have to beat. No-one had much confidence in their ability to make it through, but two of the most memorable performances by an Irish province in Europe (and that’s saying something) were clocked up en route to another quarter-fnal passage.

Off the pitch, progress was also made – Humph secured development funding from the Northern Assembly for Ravenhill, and recruitment has been stellar – Muller, Wannenbosh and Pienaar came last summer and gave the team beef and intelligence. John Afoa is this years marquee signing and is phenomenally good. Longwell and Doak have sent up some excellent players, with Spence, McAllister, Paul Marshall and Gilroy already in the first team, and Luke Marshall, Gaston, Jackson and Henderson sniffing the bench.

It’s this confluence which may have forced Humph’s hand on McLaughlin. This season, Ulster were dire until after the RWC. The training was apparently rudimentary and the patterns listless until the core of the team returned from New Zealand. McLaughlin, without his lieutenants, was an uninspring leader – fans were unhappy and feared the start of the HEC.

The feeling at Ravenhill seems to be that McLaughlin was flattered by Saffa experience and class, and young Irish fearlessness and leadership. The burning desire to win trophies may have left the amiable McLaughlin odd man out. While being Pure Ulster was a virtue back in 2009, now the need is for something different – something of the proven class that a real top-class coach can bring and take a team to the next level, like Joe Schmidt in Leinster for example.

Which is the crux of the matter. As Brian Clough famously said about Alex Ferguson:

“He hasn’t got two of what I have got, and I’m not talking about balls”

Ulster have one HEC, and it has an asterisk – there were no Boshiership teams competing in 1999. Leinster and Munster have two, and infinititely more pedigree.

Ulster can just about live with Leinster winning HECs, but Munster is another thing. To be blunt about it, Ulster Rugby, as an institution, has no respect for Munster Rugby. That’s why they can go down to Thomond Park and win, even in their darkest days in 2008. And it’s also why they are the most dangerous opponent Munster could have drawn in this years quarter-final. It was no co-incidence that the pressure of not being as succesful as Munster blew up the team of 2006.

Now, they want two of what Munster have. And they don’t see Brian McLaughlin as a coach holding the HEC. His methods are not perceived as being at the zenith of European rugby, and thats what Ulster want. Leinster got Schmidt in to take them to the next level, now it’s on Humph to get his man. He’ll want a Vern Cotter, or maybe a Fabien Galthie – someone who can grab this undoubtedly talented team and get two of what Deccie has.

Humph is piling the pressure on himself, but he won’t mind that one bit. Plus, as he knows, it’s better than Radge and Axel piling it on.

Weeks Out… Round Two

That’s your lot for Round One, now the whole tournament goes on hiatus for a couple of months and we reconvene on drier tracks in the April.  Everyone take a deep breath.  As Group stages go, this was up there with the best of them.  Every week seemed to throw up something bizarre.  Indeed, the exact line-up went down to the very last phase.  With Cardiff having a lineout in the Racing 22, but then turning over and Racing almost breaking out for a try of their own, three possible outcomes were in play.  Try for Cardiff, and Cardiff were home to Clermont; try for Racing and Biarritz were playing Munster; no try (as it turned out) and Cardiff were playing Leinster.  Phew.  Here’s our final Heineken Cup Good Week/Bad Week.

Good Week
Frankie goes to Hollywood
It was a good weekend for Frankie. Firstly, in Galway on Friday night, he (astonishingly) wasn’t the worst commentator in view – his lead (whose name we can’t recall) spent the first 79 minutes patronizing Connacht, patting them on the head and thanking them for giving Quins a tough game – the realization that they had won came late in the day, and Frankie crowed like only he can. Then, on Sunday, his big prediction came true. Last Wednesday, he had anointed Peter O’Majesty the HEC Player of the Group Stages in his blog. Oh, how we scoffed, especially since Frankie himself had awarded one of the MOTM’s he referred to. We are big POM fans, but we didn’t agree with the hyperbole. Cue Sunday, and a breath-takingly good performance from the man himself and, while we don’t want to declare him the greatest player in world rugby just yet,  we’re pretty sure he looks the real deal. Frankie the sooth-sayer, we salute you! Wait, stop press, what’s this? Surely not a conflict of interest?
Who said Round Six was predictable?
One of the best (and worst) games of the group stages was in the Sportsground on Friday – a memorable victory for Connacht, and confirmation the Quins bubble has well and truly burst. Despite of the nail-biting and desperate attempts of both teams to lose, the real story on Friday was Gloucester beating 4-times winners Toulouse. Although they have a really gassy back 3, Gloucester are an average Premiership team. Toulouse , despite giving away a ridiculous early try, eased 17-7 in front. But that only inspired Gloucester to cut loose, and the Cherry and Whites ended up winning by 10 points. Make no mistake, this was a massive win – Toulouse are top of the Top 14 and looking menacing. Given Connacht and then Embra ensured Toulouse are not only through, but have a benign route to the semis, this result may be lost in the mists a little, but try telling that to Glaws.
On the Seventh Day, God created Fez
The sense of bathos surrounding Ulster’s quarter-final is a bit strange. I mean, they produced the best Irish performance yet in the Marcel Michelin – eschewing containment for an aggressive and fearless drive to win. Clermont’s initial superiority melted away, and only the impact of the Clermont bench, some uncharacteristic inaccuracy from Pienaar and a lack of true ruthlessness let them down. A win would have, incredibly, meant 3 home quarter-finals for Irish teams (although they would have played Toulouse). Instead, Ulster now await the bear-pit of Thomond Park, and have to address the toughest question of them all: do they have The Mental to win big games away from home? One fears it may be 2013 before we learn the answer, and they need only ask Northampton Saints about how much fun the glass ceiling can be if they don’t answer them correctly.

Bad Week


The Aviva Premiership Moaning Competition


It’s been a poor season for the Premiership teams, and expect a lot of headscratching (and even more carping) over the next week or so.  The Torygraph has already nailed its colours to the mast and wants to see a more meritocratic qualification system.  Paul Ackford has a right old whinge, but never offers any explanation explain why, Sarries aside, the Premiership teams have been so poor this year – Leicester got thrashed in Belfast, Bath in Dublin and Quins blew up when the pressure came on. Northampton Saints epitomised the malaise, with just two wins out of six, and showed a surprising lack of savvy.  They couldn’t see out a potentially seismic win in Munster, and on Saturday, couldn’t stay in the game when they were under the kosh.  Their team is breaking up this summer, and last season looks like their peak, rather than a springboard for success.


Leinster, Cardiff, Toulouse and Edinburgh


All are in the quarter-finals, but all pitted in the away half of the semi-final draw.  It remains the single biggest flaw in the quirky tournament – the difference between getting Toulouse, say, or Clermont home or away is a masive swing, and it’s all decided on pot luck.  This year, though, it mightn’t be as big an advantage as it looks.  Ulster have never played in the Palindrome, and Munster are zero from two there.  It’s a bigger advantage for Leinster to play there than either of the other Irish provinces, but that won’t be happening this year.  Sarries enjoy their trips to Wem-ber-ley, but it’s no fortress – Leinster have already gone there and won, without BOD.  Meanwhile, we’ve no record of Clermont playing in St. Etienne or Lyon.


Declan Kidney


Uncle Deccie will inherit the happiest 52-man squad in Irish history.  Hooray!  A record three provinces in the HEC knockouts, and Connacht finally ending their losing streak.  Munster finally found a cutting edge, Jamie Heaslip is at his marauding best, and Ulster have become men.  But with that comes heightened expectations.  Deccie will have to work extra-hard to turn this group of in-form players into the lateral-attacking, penalty-condecing, gameplan-confused, poorly selected side we’re used to seeing.  The real hard work begins now.