All posts in category Ulster

Dear Bryan, fancy free entry into Coppers any night you want?

Leinster’s signing of Zane Kirchner hasn’t exactly inspired the troops – a fan base used to foreign backs like Pippo Contepomi and Isa Nacewa (both Leinster legends) just doesn’t like what they see in Kirchner. There was a desire for a gassy specialist wing to come in – Leinster have a lot of players who can play on the wing, but very few out-and-out wingers. A pre-injury Drew Mitchell would have been ideal, for example.

Kirchner is a full-back who has played in the 3/4 line – he has accumulated 24 caps for the Springboks but is primarily known for his Sideshow haircut and his propensity for occasional clangers. He has a massive boot and is a decent counter-attacker, but doesn’t exactly know where the whitewash is – he has 3 tries in 22 starts vs 47 in 81 for Bryan Habana, 14 in 41 for JP Pietersen and 5 in 13 for Gio Aplon. It’s safe to say Leinster fans are underwhelmed, but could they really have done any better?

With it being exactly mid-RWC cycle, you aren’t going to get All Black or Wallaby contenders going north, as they won’t get picked for the national side. The Boks are less shy about picking overseas-based players, so your market is essentially South Africa and Europe (acknowledging most Argentinian / Pacific Islander pros ply their trade in Europe).

Plus there are some differences between the market now, and the market when the provinces were picking up the likes of Dr Phil, Isa, Dougie Howlett, Jean de Villiers, Ruan Pienaar, BJ Botha, John Afoa and Rocky Elsom. The major one being the financial power of the French clubs vis-a-vis the poor mouth Irish.  Indeed, even the far-flung Japanese league has enough financial muscle behind it to lure big names.  And while the ‘Player Succession Rules’ appear to be trapped in a terminal limbo, we can at least infer that the IRFU is less enthused than ever about recruiting expensive overseas layers.  Digby Ioane has just effectively come on the market, but even if Leinster moved heaven and earth to try and sign him, there is no way they could afford him.  The French or Japanese would simply outbid for him; he can effectively name his price as one of the best wingers in the world.

If Leinster are in the market for, say, a world class outside back from South Africa, they are competing against Toulon and Racing Metro. So it goes like this:

  • Top Class: Bryan Habana, Digby Ioane. Forget about it, Toulon will outbid you. And if they don’t, there are half a dozen other French or Japanese clubs who will
  • International Class: JP Pietersen. If no French clubs are interested, you have a chance, but how likely is that? Pietersen is in his prime, has bags of experience and demands Springbok selection when fit. If there are interested French clubs you are struggling from day one
  • Super Rugby Class: Zane Kirchner. Kirchner is mostly in the Bok team these days and has never fully convinced at the highest level. If the best French clubs, those who compete in the HEC, aren’t too bothered you have a shot

So Leinster’s universe was basically South Africans who don’t own a Springbok shirt – not ideal.

Ulster will face a similar problem replacing John Afoa – what prop will turn down a French team to play Pro12 rugby when you can have a situation where you can get more money for playing 50 minute games in a top-class league? Take Zurib Kubriashvili for example, out of favour this season and leaving Toulon in the summer – leaving aside the umbilical link between Georgian props and the Top14, if he leaves Toulon, as it reported, would Ulster even be at the table when it comes to serious offers? They would be outbid by any interested French club, and it’s hard to sell dreary Belfast as an alternate to the South of France.  Rumour has it he’ll end up at Wasps, another club with some newfound financial clout behind them.

Irish provinces have had a decade of dining at the top table when it comes to world class talent, but that era is ending – Kirchner is a good player and everything, but let’s say Leinster rolled up the money and sent it in a big bag to Craig Gilroy (not currently a starter for Ulster when everyone is fit), would the fans be any less happy? Would Leinster be any worse off? And would it be worse for Irish rugby in the round? Clearly Ulster lose out, but they have a few wings and get some recompense. Just saying like.

[Disclaimer: this piece was written by Egg the Ulsterman]

 

by whiffofcordite on April 23, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Boshtastic South Africans, Evil Foreigners, Ireland, Leinster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 23, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/23/dear-bryan-fancy-free-entry-into-coppers-any-night-you-want/

Conundrums in Key Positions

The great thing about the Heineken Cup knockout stages is there is no comeback. Here’s it’s do or die. At a higher standard of play and with increased pressure, unlike Munster, Ulster were found wanting.

It was something of a bloodless coup for Saracens – Ulster never laid a glove on them and Saracens just powered their way into the semi-finals. You sensed they had an extra gear available if Ulster flicked a switch, but they never needed it. The only positive for Ulster was their dominant scrum, but when your lineout isn’t functioning and the opposition backrow are dominant, that won’t matter. As a game, it was more reminiscent of Ulster’s defeat two years ago to the Saints in Milton Keynes that last years epic in Thomond Park, and that’s a worry.

Ulster effectively played five knockout matches last season (Leicester and Clermont in the final pool matches, Munster, Embra and Leinster). In each of those, barring the final, they brought tremendous physical clout to the table, the zenith of which was the near-win in the Marcel Michelin. This time out, they couldn’t compete. Allied to that, their attacking game was poor – when Ruan Pienaar wasn’t aimlessly kicking the ball away, he was passing out to a deep Paddy Jackson and a deeper again Luke Marshall. It was meat and drink to Brad Barritt and co.

Anscombe called it pretty well in the post-match interview, saying you’ve to throw the kitchen sink at these matches and Ulster were a little tentative. At least he showed an understanding of knockout rugby, even if it was after the event and more could possibly have been done from the sidelines – the non-use of Paul Marshall was odd, especially considering neither half looked on top of their game, and the impact Stuart Olding had when he came in.

If one compares the back-row and inside backs to last year’s same stage, its quite obvious Ulster have stepped down a gear. In the back row you have Ferris/Henry/Wannenbosh versus Henderson/Henry/Williams. As fine a player as Iain Henderson is and will be, he’s nothing like the blindside Fez is – it’s nothing to be ashamed of, most aren’t. Henderson is a young second row playing in a position where Ulster have a need – he played well, and he’s good enough to be knocking on the door of the Ireland team in a position that is not his natural one, but Stephen Ferris, when fit, is one of the best blindside flankers in the world.

At the back of the scrum, Wannenburg is a more rounded player than Nick Williams – not quite as destructive with ball in hand, but a good linker and a runner of smart lines. Wannenburg was one of Ulster’s most influential players in their key games last year – he created two tries at home to Leicester with deft handling, and he scored the decisive try in their nervy semi-final win. In contrast, Saracens read Williams’ intentions easily and stopped him in his tracks with ease. Williams has been much more effective than Ulster fans (and Munster fans) expected, but he doesn’t look like a player who will thrive at this rarefied level.

We said at the beginning of the year we worried for Ulster’s depth in the backrow – Williams has had a season beyond the wildest dreams of Ulster fans, yet there is still a need for Roger Wilson to get fully fit and firing at his 2011 level. Fez is going to Japan, and unless Henderson switches to blindside full-time (unlikely), Robbie Diack is virtually the only other contender. Henry’s excellence aside, the unit is not that intimidating, and is very thin. Perhaps a sniff around a player lower in the pecking order at another province is in order.

Turning to the inside backs, you have iHumph/Wallace versus Jackson/Marshall. The two younger lads are terrific prospects, but Wallace brings a decade of experience and nous, and Ulster are a more potent attacking outfit with him in tow. Its very difficult incorporating two younger players next to one another into a team and not seeing a dropoff in consistency and performance – Wallace is a player who can bring out the best in those around him, and, for all Marshall’s class, he isn’t there yet.

As for Pienaar, he has looked increasingly jaded this year. Between World Cups (2011), Tri-Nations & Rugby Championships (Summers 2010-12), Ulster (Winters 2010/11-2012/13) and Super Rugby for the Sharks (Summer 2010), he hasn’t had a decent rest since the winter of 2009/10. If Humph can somehow get Pienaar a holiday from the RC this summer, Ulster would be hugely grateful, and Luke Marshall and Jackson will be a year older and more experienced, and have hopefully a refreshed Wallace for direction, and Olding putting pressure on their jumpers.

Ulster still have a chance for silverware this year, but, right now, it seems more likely to end trophy-less, with question marks around key positions in the off-season. If you factor in the rumors that John Afoa might be going back home, it gets worse. Ulster’s most influential players in their breakout season last year were Afoa, Muller, Fez, Henry and Pienaar. For next year they face the prospect of two of them leaving and a third rapidly burning out – these are not good developments.

by whiffofcordite on April 11, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 11, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/11/conundrums-in-key-positions/

Make Twickenham Forget Last Year

Man, its such a relief when the HEC rolls back round – the all-encompassing juggernaut that is the national team sucks all rational debate from its surroundings like light into a black hole, then disappears over the horizon with fists flying and noise levels rising like a bunch of 2-year olds in a sweet shop. The Heineken Cup just seems nicer, more orderly, and more suitable to sitting down with a beer and having a sensible conversation about rugby. The loud loutish fools who clamber aboard the patriotism wagon are nowhere to be seen, and you are left with an educated and intelligent fanbase.

This even extends to the pundits – in December, Quinny went on Newstalk and dismissed Munster’s chances of beating Saracens in Thomond Park, extending his gimlet eye down the teamsheet and just not seeing enough evidence of the class to win. In March, the same person was nodding in a sanguine fashion as Frankie blamed the Cigarette-Smoking Man for making Deccie drop Rog.

We have ourselves dismissed Munster’s chances this week, so let’s move on to the other province in the Big Gig – Ulster. On paper, the Ulster quarter-final looks the only one that might be close – Clermont are nigh-on unbeatable in the Marcel Michelin, and Montpellier don’t bring the same energy on the road as they do at home, Munster’s last two away games featured implosions against Treviso and Glasgae, and, for all Leicester’s blood, thunder and Tom Croft, they just don’t have the pack or halves to compete with mighty (nouveau riche) Toulon.

That Ulster aren’t at home and favourites is down to their own blundering – a week after tearing the all-talk-and-no-trousers Saints pack a new one, they meekly laid down at home to them. Losing at home is simply unacceptable to the best teams in Europe, and it shows Ulster have a while to go. Toughing out a win in Castres was a good riposte, but this is a whole new level altogether. Their pool was rather weak – the Northampton Saints are no-one’s idea of a barometer of manliness, Castres lay down like the Euro-bunnies they are, and Glasgow showed nothing of their Pro12 form in the HEC.

So it’s a trip to Twickers, just like last year. That went well, didn’t it? Errrr… The hope (and expectation) is that Ulster will have learned from their big day out in May, and the experience of playing there will set them in good stead. But will they be able to win?

The good news for Ulster is that Saracens are utterly woeful at getting to the ball to their talented outside backs – properly-serviced, Tompkins, Strettle, Ashton and Goode should be killing teams out wide, but they rarely see the ball. Ulster have a good record of late against teams that rely heavily on their packs – Munster, Saints and Castres for example. If Ulster can neuter the Saracens forwards, they have the weaponry to do damage – they are adept at getting Gilroy and Trimble in off their wings, and Jared Payne is a rare talent.

Neutralizing the Sarries forwards is about slowing the ball down – with a ponderous scrum-half, a kicking ten, and a boshing twelve, they very much rely on their more dynamic pack members (Vunipola, Brits, Hargreaves, Joubert) spotting gaps then offloading to trailing runners or recycling ball quickly and forcing last-ditch penalties from defenders. That’s a game Ulster will be confident they can deal with.

The three key men are Johann Muller, Darren Cave, and, particularly, Chris Henry. Ulster’s pack in the absence of Muller is notably worse – decision-making suffers and the lineout is much more fallible – expect a tight and controlled aggressive performance with the Springbok in tow. Cave marshalls the defensive line excellently, and Ulster will need to be extremely disciplined in defence as well as scrambling effectively when Saracens do get going. And as for Henry, a contender for player of the pool stages, his job is to slow down ball, frustrate the Saracens forwards, and manufacture a dogfight. If Henry bosses the breakdown, Ulster have half the job done.

Another factor is Ulster’s favour is the presence of Romaine Poite in the middle. Poite is a contrary character, but he rewards a dominant tight five at scrum-time, and doesn’t tend to do what home fans want him to. Saracens backups of Rhys Gill and John Smit are better scrummagers than the starters, and if Saracens are forced to bring them in earlier than they want to, Ulster will be setting the tempo of the match.

Ultimately, Ulster are going to look to keep their line intact and restrict Farrell to 4 to 5 kickable penalties. After that, they will ask themselves: do they have the firepower to score one try and kick a few goals of their own? They would be confident that they do – Saracens are an extremely tough nut, particularly at home, but Ulster won’t fear them, and would probably fancy themselves in a mano-a-mano knock-out tie, especially at a venue where they will have 20,000 supporters and a need to exorcise some ghosts.

Something we haven’t heard too  much of yet is the Mark McCall factor – McCall won the Celtic League in his time at Ravers, but left under a cloud as the squad fractured asunder – the unity and singularity of purpose of Ulster’s squad this season has been admirable, and one can imagine Humph waking up in a cold sweat at the prospect of having to congratulate McCall on knocking his Project out of the HEC. You can bet your bottom dollar this is a match Ulster will bring their A game to.

But will it be enough? Saracens have impressed us every time we have seen them in the Premiership this year, but were rather underwhelming for the HEC group stages. Ulster, on the other hand, have wobbled badly after a dream start to the season. Ulster look a more balanced and complete team, but are still re-integrating after injury (and are missing Fez and Tommy Bowe). Saracens have all the form and the glamour and home advantage. It’s very tight, but Saracens might just squeeze through. We hope we are wrong of course, and Saracens reliance on Owen Farrell’s boot can work both ways. If Ulster cross the line twice, or defend something like they did in Thomond last year, or at the RDS on saturday night they will win. Otherwise, and most improbably, Munster will be the last Irish team in the HEC come the Sunday Mass kickoff in Lahn.

by whiffofcordite on April 4, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Saracens, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 4, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/04/make-twickenham-forget-last-year/

The Mystery of the IRFU Succession Rules

Around a year ago, the IRFU announced its ‘succession rules’, whereby it would restrict non-Irish qualified players to one per field position across the provinces, and operate on a ‘one-contract-and-out’ basis.  The idea was to ensure at least two Irish-eligible players were playing first team rugby in each position across the three major provinces.  They were announced to general bafflement among a public that has become deeply loyal to their province of choice.  The IRFU hosted a twitter Q&A session, where they gave infuriatingly vague replies to fans who were wondering what on earth was going on, but failed to generate any goodwill or provide satisfactory responses.  It was one of the biggest PR gaffs the union has made in recent memory, up there with their ticket pricing policy for the November 2010 internationals.

Curiously – or maybe not so curiously – since the initial furore which greeted announcement, we’ve had radio silence on the issue.  Isa Nacewa was allowed to sign a one-year extension, apparently at odds with the rules; keeping him in Leinster until 2014, a year after the rules are apparently meant to come in. And today, Ulster announced Johann Muller was staying until the end of next season.

In the case of Nacewa and, especially, Muller, both are keeping young Irish players out of the team, seemingly at odds with the rules – both might be the highest-profile NIQs in their position, but we simply don’t know if that was a criterion in their contract offer.

Confused?  You’re not the only one.

The quietude around the rules has led people to ask: are they still going ahead?  We’re in the dark as much as anyone else over this.  It would be no surprise if they were quietly folded away and put to bed without any fanfare or announcement.  Another possibility is that the IRFU maintains they’re going ahead, with vigorous affirmations of the importance of adherence, but only enforces them selectively – that is to say, in actuality they don’t enforce them at all, but pretend they do in order to save face.

It looks like this will come to a real head quite soon, as Munster and Ulster’s NIQ tighthead props are making noises about leaving.  Tighthead prop was really the only position the rules were brought in to cater for, because as everyone knows, Mike Ross is the only Irish-qualified prop starting important games for his province, and it’s the only position where Ireland are so dependent on one player.

At Munster, BJ Botha is rumoured to be moving to Toulon, where he has been offered a two-year contract, while Ulster’s John Afoa has mentioned in a recent interview that he plans to return to New Zealand at the end of his contract, which expires in the summer of 2014.

Under the succession rules, Munster would be precluded from recruiting a foreign tighthead for next season, since NIQ players must be replaced by Irish eligible players once their contract has lapsed.  Ulster, similarly, would not be allowed to recruit an NIQ player the following season, once John Afoa departs.  But does anyone really believe the IRFU will hamper the provinces so severely?  It strikes us as unlikely.

The foremost Irish tightheads at Munster and Ulster are Stephen Archer and Declan Fitzpatrick.  Neither would be fit for the purpose of mounting a challenge for the Heineken Cup.  Fitzpatrick can lock a scrum, but is rarely match-fit, while Archer struggles to cope with even moderately technical opponents in the set-piece.  If both provinces are to have aspirations of beating the better French or English sides, some recruitment will be required.

The only Irish-eligible tighthead who looks a remotely plausible signing is Worcester’s Belfast-born John Andress.  Ploughing away in the Worcester front row may not sound like the stuff of greatness, but the Aviva Premiership is a set-piece-heavy league, packed with hardy scrummagers (Andress’ regular opponents in the scrum would include the likes of Soane Tongauiha, Alex Corbisiero, Marcos Ayerza and Joe Marler – not exactly wallflowers).

Andress has had something of a journeyman career so far, but has amassed plenty of gametime since he moved to England.  He made 44 appearances in the Championship for Exeter Chiefs, before moving up a level to the Premiership with Harlequins in 2009.  He made 30 starts for Harlequins over two seasons before returning to the Chiefs, but found his path to the first team blocked on returning.  He’s started 10 games and made eight further appearances from the bench for Worcester this season.  He might find his opportunities slightly more limited in the rest of the season, with Euan Murray having pitched up at Sixways.  That he has never been deemed essential by some fairly mediocre clubs is a mark against him, but his CV is several notches up from that of Archer or Fitzpatrick.

His is a solid body of work, and his career path looks suspiciously similar to that of Mike Ross.  That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be as good as Mike Ross, but at 29, he should be coming into his prime as a scrummager.  If the IRFU do decide to persist with their ill-conceived succession rules, he can expect his value to increase sharply.

But even if Andress is the answer – and there’s no guarantee he would be – there’s only one of him, and two provinces for whom the issue of recruitment is pressing.  If the IRFU is going to go ahead with its ill-advised move, and enact it to the letter, it is going to have to choose between Munster and Ulster and seriously weaken one of them.

Prop recruitment in general has been a mixed bag among the provinces in recent years.  Botha has delivered good value for both Ulster and Munster over five highly productive seasons, while Afoa has been consistently outstanding for Ulster.  Nathan White, as a stop-gap for Leinster and now at Connacht, is another success story.  But then there are the Clint Newlands, Peter Borlases and latterly, Michael Bents, whose careers in Ireland have been stillborn.

Even if Ulster and Munster are given the licence to recruit, there are no guarantees of quality, and competition for the best will be fierce from the Top 14 in particular, where clubs think nothing of having six first-rate props on their books, and rotating them over the season – the best props coming from the Southern Hemisphere will get hoovered up by the French clubs, as will the French ones (obviously) and the Georgians. The English ones aren’t going to come to Ireland. So, essentially, to replace Afoa and Botha with NIQ props will not only break the IRFU’s own rules, but be hugely expensive into the bargain, as we will be competing with Toulon, Clermont and Racing Metro.

by whiffofcordite on February 5, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ireland, Ireland's Scrum Woes, Ireland's Tighthead Crisis, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 5, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/02/05/the-mystery-of-the-irfu-succession-rules/

Missing Muller

Ulster might have reached the HEC knock-out stages for a third successive year, but there was a rather anti-climactic feel to their qualification due to the lack of a home quarter-final, and the last two underwhelming performances at Ravers will have gone a long way towards it. They looked nailed-on for a home QF after round three, and it wasn’t supposed to be this way after that memorable win in Northampton.

After the disappointing loss in the return fixture with the Saints came the failure to get a bonus point at home to Glasgae. Now that might sound presumptuous, but Ulster should have scored four tries – and failure to do so put them behind Saracens (and Toulon) in the final rankings. The dirty win in Castres was about as good as they were going to get, and winning games in France is a tough habit to get into – so that’s a plus, but the Glasgow game was a disappointment.

They were let down by a curious helter-skelter panicky second quarter when they threw the ball around like confetti in minging conditions instead of sticking it up the jumper and trying to control it better, then a third quarter where they completely switched off. It took a few changes in the pack and the introduction of Paul Marshall to snap them back into gear – and two tries promptly followed.

Although Ulster might be able to replicate some of the lineout work of Johann Muller with a combination of NWJMB and Robbie Diack, they were unable to replace the captaincy skills and leadership qualities Muller brings to the table. There is no way the former Springbok would have allowed Ulster to take the ball out of the tight in the second quarter when in the Glasgae 22.

The absence of Muller was compounded by the ongoing unavailability of Fez and injury to Dan Tuohy – Ulster lost 3 cornerstones of their pack and couldn’t replace their influence. Chris Henry had a good game and was, as usual, the lynchpin of Ulster, but Rory Best and John Afoa were quiet – too quiet. The failure to get a grip on the game until late on was ultimately their undoing – this was an average Glasgae side and, conditions allowing, Ulster needed to slap them down early and then milk tries. And they couldn’t do it.

A comparison of the three games where Muller started and the three he didn’t are revealing:

  • Muller starts: Played 3 (2 away, 1 home), Points difference 14-0, Try difference 9-2
  • Muller doesn’t start: Played 3 (1 away, 2 home), Points difference 9-5, Try difference 3-2

Of course, Ulster had many more injuries than just Muller, but the shaky lineout and general frenzy indicate that Muller was missed more than most.

Thankfully for Ulster, the HEC knock-out stages are somewhat of a new tournament, and one can expect them to have a full selection by then (injuries will be managed with an early-April start in mind) with the exception of Tommy Bowe.

If Saracens switch the game to Wembley or Twickers or some other giant stadium, it will make the task easier, but Ulster have a mountain to climb that they have helped make themselves.

by whiffofcordite on January 24, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Johann Muller, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 24, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/24/missing-muller/

Regrets, They’ll Have A Few

The champions are out of Europe at the pool stages.  If that sounds pretty ignominious, then it probably is.  Sure, there were mitigating circumstances in a hefty injury list and a tough pool, but them’s the breaks and they weren’t the only team with injured players or good teams to contend with.  It’ll be especially gut-wrenching that the team to edge them out of the knockouts are their arch rivals, Munster, a team they would believe themselves to be better than.  Harlequins will be happier to be facing Munster than a rejuvenated Leinster that has belatedly sparked into life since getting a proper backline on the pitch.  But, hey, that’s Heineken Cup rugby.

Leinster can at least console themselves that they kept up their half of the bargain by securing the 10 match points they needed in the final two rounds.  That they did so in a swashbuckling style reminiscent of the last two seasons is reason enough to believe that they are not a busted flush yet, and that  their premature exit should not be seen as a serious demise.  But to be entering the final rounds relying on the middle-tier French clubs for favours – especially once their own fates have been sealed – is never going to be a recipe for success.  Leinster have only themselves to blame.

While it’s tempting to look at the possibility that they left a few tries out there against both Scarlets and Exeter, in truth the damage was done in rounds one to four.  Again, many will look to the double-header with Clermont, but given the backline Leinster had out in both games (Goodman at 12, and every other player from 11-15 playing out of their best position) and the nature of Clermont’s sense of unfinished business, it is understandable that they should lose both games.  Just one more point would have left Leinster’s fate in their own hands, and the opening week fiasco, where they sleepwalked to a fortuitous, tryless win over an Exeter which conceded seven tries at home to Clermont the following week was the one that got away.  To look at it more thematically, Leinster will rue that a misfiring lineuot proved expensive right through the pool stages.

No such concerns on the face of it for Ulster, but in having to go away to Saracens, they have made their possible passage to the final more difficult than it should have been.  They, too, will have cause for regret, in particular in taking their eye off the ball against Northampton in round four.  Having slaughtered the Saints in Franklin’s Gardens it looks as if Ulster may have got a bit carried away with themselves in the build-up to the return leg, and paid a heavy price.  Even still, a single extra point would have reversed the quarter-final match venue and as such, the awful third quarter in which they allowed Glasgow to dominate in Pool 5 left them one try short of what would have been a crucial bonus point.

By contrast, Munster will reflect that they are happy to be still in the competition after somehow squeezing out of a pool in which they never really impressed.  They can look back on the ten minute salvage operation against Edinburgh at home as the point that made all the difference to their campaign.  With one try on the board after 70 minutes, it looked set to be a disappointing afternoon at Thomond Park, but Paddy Butler’s introduction provided a spark and they manufactured three tries in the dying minutes, against admittedly hapless opposition.  They’re unlikely to do much in the knock-out stages, where the Anglo-French axis look set to dominte, but how Leinster must envy them.

by whiffofcordite on January 21, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 21, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/21/regrets-theyll-have-a-few/

It’s Just A Little Airborne, It’s Still Good, It’s Still Good!

Munster and Leinster aren’t out of the Heineken Cup just yet, but oh me oh my, they’re cutting their chances pretty fine after losing what were, on the face of it, must-win matches this weekend.  Munster sit on 11 points in their pool, and Leinster are on 10.  We wrote previously how the two could be on some sort of collision course, potentially taking one or another out of the tournament.  Well, they sure are now, but it ain’t no two horse race.  It’s time to get out the calculators.

Oh, and it probably makes sense to add a health warning at this point: looking too far ahead in the Heineken Cup can be a fruitless exercise, the most likely outcome of which is making yourself look foolish.

So who’s liable to be scrapping over the two precious runner up spots?  Here’s a guide which should hopefully give Leinster and Munster fans an idea who they should be rooting for over the next two rounds.

Pool 1: Munster are third with 11 points, but are on course for second, as Racing have played hapless Embra twice.  Saracens will probably go to Racing and do the business, although Racing have kept their interest in the pool alive after back-to-back wins over Edinburgh, so it’s by no means guaranteed.  If Sarries slip up, the pool will become a three horse race, with Racing very much in the mix.  The group would probably be settled on bonus points, and it would change the dynamic of their visit to Thomond Park.  Munster have Edinburgh away before they welcome Racing in Week Six.  It’s time to bring out Rob Penney’s attacking ideas in their full glory, because they’ll be looking for 5 points from each.  21 would almost certainly be enough to qualify.

Forecast: Saracens top, Munster second on 21 points.

Pool 2: Leicester and Toulouse meet in round six, and the winner will top the group.  Results this weekend might prove to be helpful. Ospreys’ defeat of Toulouse means it’s hard to see a runner-up breaking 20 points.  Leicester are on 14 and Toulouse are on 13, but they play each other in the final round.  Unless Leicester beat Ospreys with a bonus point, but then contrive to lose to Toulouse by less that seven, or claim an unlikely draw, the runner-up here should be below the 20-point watermark.

Forecast: Leicester top the group, Toulouse second on 19 points

Pool 3: Biarritz are second on 9 points, and still have to face Harlequins.  Quins are runaway winners here and should have eyes on securing the top seeding.  Biarritz can achieve a maximum of 19 points, but that would require they beat Quins with a try-scoring bonus.

Forecast: Harlequins through, with six wins.  Biarritz second with 15 points.

Pool 4: Ulster losing to Northampton this weekend could have significant knock-on effects, and not in a good way.  Had they lost, Northampton were buried, but they’ve been handed a lifeline.  Ulster are still in control here, despite the hiccup and should still come out on top, though the final game in Castres could be nervy.  Northampton have 10 points and with Castres at home and Glasgow away, they, like Munster, will be eyeing up a 10 point haul, that would put them on 20 points.

Forecast: Ulster through, Northampton second, on 19 points, with only one of the two bonus points.

Pool 5: Clermont are home and hosed here.  They’ll beat Exeter at home and crush Scarlets, putting them on six from six.  Leinster have it all to do.  They haven’t had their try-scoring form with them this season, but should be able to manufacture a four-try win over Scarlets.  That would leave them travelling to a doughty Exeter looking for a four-try win to try and get to the magical 20 point mark.  Memories of Bath in 2006 spring to mind, but they’ll need to look considerably sharper than they have done to to do it.  Exeter are no pushovers and could still have the Amlin to play for.

Forecast: Clermont top.  Leinster to get two wins, but only one bonus point: 19 points.

Pool 6: for Leinster fans, if they do get to 20 points, it all looks to hinge on this pool.  Toulon are on 18 points and Montpellier are on 13.  The other two teams in the group are hopeless: Sale and Cardiff.  Toulon will beat Cardiff at home and top the group.  Montpellier should beat Sale, getting themselves to 17 at least.  Montpellier face Toulon at home in the final week.  Toulon should be already qualified when the game takes place.  Montpellier’s need will surely be greater.  A win and they’d launch themselves to 21 points at least.  Leinster fans must hope that Toulon turn up and win in Montpellier, or that Sale manage to recover from their 62-0 beting to somehow beat Montpellier.  Neither is especially likely.

Forecast: Toulon to top the group, but lose in Montpellier.  Montpellier to finish second with 21 points.

Overall forecast: Montpellier and Munster through as best runners-up.

The above of course, would leave our quarter final rankings looking something like:

  1. Harlequins
  2. Clermont
  3. Toulon
  4. Ulster
  5. Saracens
  6. Leicester
  7. Munster/Montpellier
  8. Munster/Montpellier

So the good news for Munster is we think they will not only sneak through, but avoid having to go to Toulon for another mashing. Clermont is equally as intimidating a venue of course, but it’s not the site of Munster’s most significant mental scarring. The Stoop would be a nice venue for a knock-out game – blood capsules all round!

by whiffofcordite on December 18, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 18, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/18/its-just-a-little-airborne-its-still-good-its-still-good/

Siege Mentality

Down the years, many a successful coach has driven on his team by creating a siege mentality within the camp.  No less a man than the great Sir Alex Ferguson, before becoming a darling of the media himself, used what he perceived to be a London bias in the English press to motivate his team.  No one likes us, we don’t care, he would say, and the team bought into his vision.

The Irish love a siege mentality and traditionally only ever reach a peak when they’re written off.  Remember beating Australia in Auckland?  Remember the 1991 World Cup?  Great performances from a team dismissed in advance.  At provincial level, the siege mentality has been a huge factor in how Irish rugby lines have been formed.  And it looks like it’s found a new home (incidentally, Connacht permanently have a siege mentality, so let’s leave them out for the moment).

Historically, the chip on the shoulder was always seen as a Munster thing.  It’s what drove them on to being the most successful team of the early professional era.  Munster rugby long held a view that Leinster and Ulster, with their wealthier private-schools-based catchment area and powerful boardroom presence, cocked a snoop at them and national teams reflected a selection bias against them.  Back in the days of selection commitees there was certainly  a sense that the school tie was as important as a player’s ability.  When the Heineken Cup launched and Irish rugby built itself around provincial franchises, Munster used the chip on its collective shoulder to brilliant effect.  They had always dominated the club game, and with Limerick and Cork now aligned in pursuit of a common goal they took the opportunity to show the Nordies and the D4-heads just how good they could be when given a proper chance.  The rest we know – they dominated Europe and national selection for the guts of a decade.

But a siege mentality can only last so long.  Munster became media darlings on a near mythic scale.  Anyone following our twitter feed will know that we don’t entirely buy into the extraordinary levels of mythology that get perpetrated at the very mention of a late Saturday afternoon kick-off in Thomond Park, but there are plenty who do.  Munster, the pride of Irish warriors, stitching the tears of Ginger McLoughlin into the team shirt, was born.  They became the embodiment of everyting great about Irish sport, a brilliant and heroic team.  When everyone loves you, it’s hard to claim that nobody likes you and you don’t care.

So the siege mentality was picked up by Leinster, who were seen as the team opposite to Munster in every way.  In a wonderful article, Matt Williams recently described a speech made in the dressing room by Denis Hickie after Leinster beat Clermont Auvergne in the Stade Marcel Michelin in 2003.  They had little travelling support, no more than a handful of family members who joined the players in the dressing room.  Hickie said that Leinster had no ‘Red Army’ equivalent following them and no support in the media but that none of that mattered.  Everyone important to Leinster Rugby was in that dressing room and that was enough; they had to do it for each other.  When we read it, it made us think about something we’d never considered before: that it’s great saying ‘we’re going to win for the fans who are the best in the world’, but having an army of passionate support is in fact a luxury that plenty of teams don’t have.  Some team simply have to win for themselves.

The culmination was in 2009, when Michael Cheika drove his team to new levels of feral hunger by exposing them to the full scale of the media hubbub, which was at that point in time in full Munster Lovin’ flow.  Niall Kiely’s infamous smugfest was apparently pinned to the wall in the Leinster dressing room that day.

Again, though, circumstances changed.  Joe Schmidt brought a new skills-based emphasis and didn’t require the media to motivate his team.  Besides, once up and running, his slick Leinster team themselves became the most celebrated rugby team in the land.  The image of an exclusive school boys’ club was long removed and Leinster the family-friendly creche-cum rugby-club was a hit with the public.  The siege mentality could be put down.

So it is that Ulster look to be the team in possession.  They have a real chippy look this season.  They look like a bunch of caged beasts (with an appropriate nod to the memory of Nevin Spence, which seems to be driving them on to lay down something great in tribute).  Leinster and Munster still seem to swallow up most of the rugby oxygen, with Ulster a bit of an afterthought.  They’ve had to take Gerry Thornley saying things like ‘Ulster might be the better team, but Munster are the better province’, whatever that means.  They’ve had Hugh Farrelly write that Ulster beating Munster in the quarter-final last year was bad for Irish rugby.  Their players seem to draw the short straw come national selection time, with Chris Henry, Paul Marshall, Dan Tuohy, Paddy Jackson and Tom Court all missing out on selection at various times – and all to Munster players.  They might be entitled to feel that none of the Irish media – dominated by Munster and to a lesser extent Leinster – really like them.  And they don’t care.

But where does this leave Munster? Stuck in the middle of the Pro12 and in the most precarious position of the Big Three in terms of Heineken Cup, while Leinster are reigning champs of Europe and Ulster are unbeaten this season, they are right now the third best team in Irish rugby.  Shouldn’t they be the ones trying to foster the spirit of indignation?

For sure, but how?  The memories of Munster’s greatness are still fresh and there’s no real desire to turn the crosshairs on a province which has given so much to Irish rugby in the recent past.  The respect they’ve earned down the years has long-term value.  Even tedious 15-9 wins over a dull Saracens team have the press swooning like its the Beatles and are described as ‘magical nights’, while ROG even at his most ordinary can be described as the ‘perfect 10 giving a tactical masterclass’.

While we are not proclaiming that the entire Irish media are biased towards Munster, we do have a theory on this. The sports media in Ireland is pretty uncritical in general – they reflect a public which proclaims extreme loyalty towards “their” team (whoever it may be) and wants to see that reflected in what they read. In addition, Ireland is a small and parochial country – the sports media are in regular contact with coaches and players and like to keep on good terms with them. Two stories stand out in this regard:

  • Dwarf-gate in Queenstown – while Mike Tindall and various other England players were having photos surrepticiously taken by hacks writing Gotcha! stories, the Ireland team were in the exact same bar … with the Irish rugby press, all drinking together and having great gas
  • Fangio once told a story about how he wrote “Peter Clohessy would be the only man in Limerick whose car could be left unlocked on the street and it would still be there when he got back” – he meant it as a compliment that, in a city with a gritty reputation, the Claw was held in huge esteem. By the standards of (again) the English gutter press, it’s pretty tame stuff – but Clohessy took exception, and went out of his way to point that out to Fanning

So that means lots of positivity – but what has this got to do specifically with Munster? The punditry class in Ireland is dominated by former players, and those from Munster appear to be more reluctant to dole out criticism of their province than those with ties to Leinster or Ulster.

Leinster, in their lengthy fallow period, had to endure the likes of Franno and Jim Glennon sniping from the sidelines, sometimes with some pretty nasty observations (remember the Leinster Ladyboys?).  Ulster have always had a culture of criticism, and tend more naturally to see the glass as half-empty.  Former Ulster players feel a responsibility to hold today’s team up against the standard of their interpro-dominating vintages from the past. But former Munster players appear lothe to criticise the players wearing the shirt.  There’s a culture of blood being thicker than water, for sticking up for the team, buying into the ethos – embedded from their playing days when they had to do exactly the same.

Perhaps it will change once Generation Ligind move into media roles – they knew what it took to achieve greatness, know what professionalism is all about and know the standard required to make Munster great again. In fact, Alan Quinlan looks extremely capable of hard-hitting analysis [aside: when, as a former Munster player, he tipped them to lose at home to Saracens, it was so noteworthy the boys on OTB speculated about “Quinny Slams Munster” headlines], and Jirry Flannery is on record as saying he didn’t really rate the next group of players coming through, and in a remarkable swipe, said he didn’t have much time for ex-players hanging-on to the coat-tails of the current squad.  He’s yet to establish a niche for himself in the media, but could be interesting, and his hair is really fascinating.  And surely, when ROG eventually retires after the 2021 Lions tour and moves into punditry he’ll offer a suitably withering assessment of the shortcomings of his replacement at fly-half.  Now that has to be worth waiting for.

by whiffofcordite on December 13, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 13, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/13/siege-mentality/

Munster Fly-Half Steers Team To Famous Victory

The good ship Heineken is cruising along nicely, and the hopeless rats are deserting at a cracking pace – after this weekend, the list of realistic quarter finalists stands at a desultory 10 – Ulster and Quins will surely go through alone; and while Toulon, Sarries and Clermont hold the whip hand in their pools, Montpellier, Munster and Leinster are still in touch and have definite best runners-up potential. In the Pool of Death, the Ospreys are virtually gone, leaving Toulouse and Leicester to fight for top spot, and also contest for a best runners-up spot. Racing Metro and Castres are still alive, but they would much prefer to do it in the Top14, and may see HEC progression as counter-productive – the cream is rising to the top.

It was a good weekend for Romanian and Spanish rugby – Bucharest’s win over Agen had echoes of the 80s, when the Mighty Oaks had the Frenchies’ number, and Declan Cusack’s Bizkaia Gernika did what their fellows Basques in Biarritz and Bayonne couldn’t, and won a game – kudos all round. Rather less encouraging was the performance of the representatives from some of European rugby’s more prominent countries – after 3 rounds of the HEC, all the Welsh, Scottish and Italian sides are out of contention for qualification. In a miserable, no win 7 loss weekend for the Pro12 Patsies, Hard-Scrummaging Scarlets and Glasgow’s losses at home to English debutants Exeter and French Euro-bunnies Castres were notable low points. For the second year in three, we will have no Welsh quarter-finalists, Embra’s success last year looks increasingly like a flash in the pan and Italy continues its wait for a knock-out representative – this is not a sustainable divvy-up of the spoils.

All week, we had heard the repeated mantra of the Europe-dominating ambition of Saracens – from the cheerleading media in Blighty talking up their chances in Thomond, to the cheerleading media in Tara Street looking to underpin Munster’s underdog credentials. In the event, their lack of ambition on the field was stunning – for a team with such an array of talented backs, they play a horrendous brand of rugby. It’s hard to credit that a backline containing the likes of Hodgson, Farrell, Strettle, Goode and Ashton can score just 9 tries in 10 Premiership games. Do the top brass at Saracens really think that the type of 10 man dross that was in vogue 4 years ago is really a realistic gameplan for HEC success? If they do, their “European ambition” is just like the Northampton pack – all talk and no trousers.

With Ulster odds-on to be among the top 4 seeds going into the HEC quarter-finals, and the ERC stipulation on a minimum 15,000 capacity for knock-out games, the race is on to get Ravers up to capacity by April. Ulster want nothing less than to win their pool in style, only to draw a best runner-up like their modern-day nemesis, Leinster, and have to effectively give up home advantage. Expect Christmas to be cancelled in Belfast – the quid pro quo will be a first HEC knock-out game at Ravers since January 1999 and a serious tilt at bringing the trophy to Ravers for the second time, and to Ireland for a remarkable seventh.

As for Leinster, yesterday’s game was pretty instructive – Leinster were as “there for the taking” as they are going to be, yet Clermont looked a little intimidated – there is no doubt the regular wins for the D4 goys over the Bananamen have got into their heads. If Leinster end up going back to the Marcel Michelin in a quarter-final, they will be confident they have their number. Leinster won’t be happy at the prospect coming out of the pool in second, but they are probable seventh seeds and will fancy their chances away to Clermont, Ulster, Harlequins and Saracens. Only Toulon represent an intimidating journey into the unknown – it’s a fascinating sub-plot to the jostling for quarter-final seeding – third place might be a better place to be than second.

And finally, to Connacht, whose victory over fading heavyweights Biarritz was possibly the highlight of the weekend.  17 of their 22 points came from the boot of Dan Parks, including two sweetly struck drop goals.  In a season when foreign signings have been more under the microscope than ever, he is pound for pound th best bit of business by an Irish province this summer.  He is exactly what Connacht needed at this point in their development and is performing an invaluable job for them, turning the pressure they generate into points on the scoreboard.

The result certainly had an effect on our Munster-Leinster collision course.  It more or less takes Biarritz out of the equation, as they can only achieve a maximum of 20 points.  So, perhaps both Leinster and Munster could qualify as best runners-up?  Perhaps, but it’s looking like we might have been a bit dismissive of Pool 2’s chances of producing a second qualifier.  We thought Ospreys would be a contender in a three-way tussle in that group, but it doesn’t look like panning out that way.  With Ospreys now all but doomed, both Toulouse and Leicester could win there and set about achieving some pretty high points totals.

PS the “think of the fans” argument for not sending off players who commit dangerous tackles is one of the most annoying memes of modern times. After Lloyd Williams was sent off for dumping Benoit Paillauge on his noggin, Ieuan Evans and Paul Wallace moaned about how it was never a red, and the Sky line at full-time was how disappointing it all was for the fans to see a refereeing decision “ruin the game”. It prompted us to imagine this hypothetical conversation between fans:

Fan 1: Oh look, Player A is going to be in a wheelchair for the rest of his life after being dumped on his head.

Fan 2: Who cares about that, I’m just hoping the referee doesn’t send off Player B – I paid £15 to see this!

by whiffofcordite on December 10, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Complexities of Qualification, HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 10, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/10/munster-fly-half-steers-team-to-famous-victory/

Be Kind Rewind

In October 2009 with the Palindrome a mere nine months from opening, the blazers confirmed that the opening fixture would indeed be a rugger game. Given the small window in which it could be played (after opening but before the soccerball merchants pitched up in August), it was somewhat inevitable that the biggest names would not be involved.

So what they pencilled in was a combination interprovincial, where Munster/Connacht would play Leinster/Ulster. At the time (Autumn 2009), Munster were the kingpins of Irish rugger.  Despite Leinster being HEC champions, Munster were still considered the daddies of Irish rugby, and match-for-match had probably been the best team in the previous years HEC. They backboned the Irish Grand Slammers and that summers Lions team and were still recognisable as the Liginds. They were confident and comfortable in their own skin – no need to hype up someone with two semi-decent Pro12 outings as the next big thing when you had the real big thing in the first XV. The idea was to pair them with Connacht, traditionally the weakest Irish province, and let them chukka off against the rest.

Given there were no big names available (all on holidays), the players were picked from the Academies and sub-academies. The game itself was a complete mismatch – but in the opposite way to senior level – it was Leinster/Ulster won 68-0 and scored 10 tries. So despite the fact Leinster (then still under Mike Cheika) were far from the finished article, and Ulster were at the bottom of a trough, their collective youngsters were far, far better than those of Munster and Connacht. Initial warning sign? Maybe, but that might be being overly prescriptive with history – the acceptance at the time was that only a handful of these players might make the transition to the top level at any rate. So who were they?

Leinster/Ulster:

15. Sam Coghlan Murray (Leinster)
14. Craig Gilroy (Ulster)
13. Alex Kelly (Leinster)
12. Luke Marshall (Ulster) Captain
11. Andrew Boyle (Leinster)
10. Paddy Jackson (Ulster)
9. Peter du Toit (Leinster)
1. James Tracy (Leinster)
2. Jonny Murphy (Ulster)
3. Martin Moore (Leinster)
4. Iain Henderson (Ulster)
5. Robert Hynes (Leinster)
6. Steven Lecky (Ulster)
7. Mark McGroarty (Leinster)
8. David McGuigan (Ulster)
Replacements
16. Paddy Carroll (Leinster)
17. Andy Warrick (Ulster)
18. Mark Fallon (Leinster)
19. Paddy Marks (Ulster)
20. Conor Spence (Ulster)
21. Cathal Marsh (Leinster)
22. Michael McAuley (Ulster)

Connacht/Munster:

15. Callum Boland (Connacht)
14. Tadhg Leader (Connacht)
13. Daniel Horgan (Munster)
12. Ben Sargent (Munster)
11. Shane Leydon (Connacht)
10. Johnny Holland (Munster)
9. Mark Dolan (Connacht) Captain
1. Aaron Spring (Connacht)
2. Kieran Stokes (Munster)
3. Paul Mullen (Munster)
4. Rob O’Herlihy (Munster)
5. David O’Mahony (Munster)
6. Shane Buckley (Munster)
7. Aaron Conneely (Connacht)
8. Danny Qualter (Connacht)
Replacements
16. James Rael (Munster)
17. Sean Wooton (Connacht)
18. Ian Mullarkey (Munster)
19. David Heffernan (Connacht)
20. Ronan Barry (Munster)
21. Gareth Quinn-McDonogh (Munster)
22. Jack Costigan (Munster)
23. Cathal Quinn (Munster)

Not many familiar names there, unless you are a hard-core fan. But there aren’t no familiar names – second row NWJMB is now a full international and will backbone the Irish pack for the next decade plus. Craig Gilroy was the star of the November series, scoring the first try against the Pumas and adding real vigour to Ireland’s attack. Paddy Jackson (24 appearances for Ulster) and Luke Marshall (18 appearances, and spent most of last season injured) would be full internationals too, if the IRFU hadn’t signed such a restrictive agreement with Aviva. In the event, they have lined up for an ‘Ireland XV’, but will certainly expect to feature in the Six Nations.

There’s quite a drop-off in visibility after that, with none of the rest of them having as much as strung together a few Pro12 games (the next most established is probably Leinster academy prop Martin Moore who has 5 replacement appearances in the Pro12).  Yet the big 4 are contending for international recognition. And, as we’re sure some of you have noted, all four are from Ulster. We had heard plenty of rumours at the time about the great crop of apples being grown in the Ulster orchard, but here is some intriguing evidence of it – all four provinces contributed the cream of their 18-20 year olds for this game, and the only four to make it to the top at a very young age are all from Ulster. Food for thought indeed, and worth another look in 2 years time to note progress…

by whiffofcordite on November 29, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Ulster, Ulster's Rising Stars, Youthful Promise

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 29, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/11/29/be-kind-rewind/

« Older Posts
Newer Posts »