Dead Parrot Sketch

So, its come to this. The French clubs are back in the fold, helped by a shove from the union, their long-term intentions as unclear as ever – they said the RCC fiasco was a way for them to get what they wanted, but we aren’t sure what they actually want.

  • More money? Seems unlikely – French clubs earn more at home. It would be nice, but hardly a reason to join McCafferty’s revolution. Unless its all about permanently de-stabilizing Europe – that would earn them more money – see option 3 below.
  • Less Rabo teams? Well, the structure sans les Rosbifs is apparently the entire Rabo league, 6 Frenchies and 2 composite whipping boys from Spain and Portugal, with the Amlin Vase gone. Pretty unsuccessful way to make qualification more meritocratic (should that be “meritocratic”? Not sure)
  • Top16? This is what we think. Discredit and destabilize Europe enough that a Top16 becomes a safety line for French clubs. Playing the long game

With the pliant UK media going as overboard as ever (the Grauniad didn’t report on the French clubs leaving on Thursday, then headlined it on Friday with “French U-turn jeopardises European rugby” – yeah, its the French who have done the jeopardising…), PR have air cover for their intransigence, with little public questioning of their strategy and long-term ambitions (bar Martyn Thomas calling for McCafferty’s head on a plate). And little detail  on the minutiae of the BT contract either.

The increasingly woeful utterances by PR are an embarrassment to English rugby:

  • Its us and the French!
  • Its us and the Welsh!
  • Its us and the South Africans!
  • Its us and … er … financial oblivion!

Its basically the Dead Parrot Sketch – this RCC is very much alive sir!

McCafferty’s latest is to insist the English aren’t coming back and is being reduced to saying the Premiership will be better as teams can play all their players instead of saving them for Europe (I thought it was only Rabo clubs that could do this?).  The risk now is the unhappy Welsh regions actually try and force their unions hand and try and join an expanded Premiership – its what they want, and it might actually make them financially viable.

The situation is still pretty fluid – a HEC with 12 Rabo teams and some PIGS seems unlikely to work, and PR aren’t going to go away. PR aren’t completely isolated yet, the RFU are reluctantly yoked to them, and the Welsh clubs are enthusiastic about games against English clubs. Bottom line for Ireland – short of the English coming back to the fold unconditionally, nothing is good news.

Its unclear how European club rugby will look in 5 years, but if there is a Top16 and some Welsh clubs in the Premiership, Irish rugby will struggle massively – Eddie wrote a nice piece on the questionable long-term benefits of Irish provinces dominating the Pro12. The HEC has been a stunning success in the last decade, but, paradoxically, that has alerted the English and French to the market for more and higher-quality rugby. If you can’t beat the Irish provinces on the pitch, why not remove their lifeline to top-class rugby and tempt the players to join your clubs?

The parallels with soccer in the 1990s are increasing – the governing bodies never directly conceded to a European super league, but the clubs pushed the envelope so far on Champions League expansion, they got one by proxy. The RFU and WRU can’t ignore the next tier of rugby in England and Wales – the Great Schism of nearly 120 years ago is still hard-wired into rugby union administration (recall professionalism was conceded to avoid loss of control 100 years after the first schism) and splits will be avoided at all costs.

This isn’t really about the HEC, its about power and money – the bell might have been rung on the HEC, and, as Eddie would say, you can’t un-ring it. The prospect of expanded French and Anglo-Welsh competitions might have moved a little closer – lets hope the Irish don’t end up relying on the Scots, Italians and the rest of Europe for games. We’re no closer to a long-term resolution, but the danger signals for Ireland remain at DEFCON 1.

Scapegoat!

If there is one man in Ireland who its easy to dump blame on, it’s Tom Court. Court joined Ulster in 2006, aged 26, with a little bit of Super Rugby experience. Back then, he played both sides, but ended up specializing on the loosehead side, and has blossomed (if that is the right word) into a very competent and useful player. He has been one of the standout looseheads in the last few years of Heineken rugby and has been a major factor in Ulster’s pack becoming the best in the Pro12.

He has wracked up a few Ireland caps as well – 32 to date – and got a Lions call-up, albeit a fortuitous one. But Court’s international career will be remembered for one thing – the demolition of our scrum at Twickers in 2012 when he came off the bench and played out of position. This narrative is hugely unfair – Court had soldiered manfully, a diligent filler-inner, providing cover from the bench for both sides of the scrum when needed, yet got dumped on when he needed support.

In a way it was understandable – Court is Australian and you won’t get anyone building him up in the media or pencilling him into the team, especially ahead of a domestic-born yeoman who agent is prominent on certain TV outlets. The man himself was dropped out of the Irish 23 for last years Six Nations for Dave Kilcoyne, but came right back in when DJ Church was on the naughty step – Kilcoyne might have been the better impact sub, but Court was clearly the better man to start.

And now Court is on his way and has joined Reading Samoa (we’ll have to stop calling them that – they are Irish-ing up to the max with iHumph, TOL, Jamie Hagan and now Court) on a 3-year contract. Our feeling is that Humph wasn’t for budging and for a man of his vintage (he turned 33 earlier this month), three years is a good deal, but it fits with how his Irish career has gone – and we wonder will Ulster not know what they had until it’s gone.

So where does it leave Ulster? And what about Ireland? Ulster first – they have two looseheads behind Court – Calum Black and Paddy McAlister. McAlister would be the better-known and was certainly the better prospect, but hasn’t returned from injury since coming on in the HEC final in 2012. Calum Black has stepped in and has done ok, without troubling Court. It would be fair to say neither are mapped by Joe Schmidt at present.

Which brings us on to Ireland. Here is how we would see the rankings of internationally mapped Irish looseheads right now:

  1. DJ Church. No competition
  2. Jack McGrath. Vaulted Killer Davecoyne in the squad pecking order due to some impressive performance this season, and was MOTM on his debut (albeit slightly romantically from Wardy – we’d have picked the much-maligned/warrior-who-never-takes-a-backward-step – delete as per prvincial leanings appropriate – POM).  Appears to be second in command.
  3. Tom Court. Sure, he might be easy to drop, but remains arguably the second best scrummaging loosehead against all but the most technical opponents.  Still in the picture.
  4. Dave Kilcoyne. The well-connected Munsterman did a good job for Ireland off the bench last year and looked to be progressing nicely, but hasn’t started the season as well. You probably haven’t heard, but Frankie is his agent.
  5. James Cronin. Highly exciting youngster, who impressed in a high profile cameo against Leinster. It will be interesting to see how he finishes the season – will he take Killer’s shirt?
  6. Marcus Horan. Wait, off that, Deccie has gone

So, as of next season, the odd man out Court will be sunning himself in Lahn. Well, in Reading. Which will leave the best four looseheads in Ireland playing in Munster and Leinster. If this were Australia, and the best four looseheads (I know, right, Australia having FOUR whole looseheads is a bit of a laugh, but bear with us) were playing at the Reds and the Brumbies, one of them would just be told, in no uncertain terms, he was a Waratah now.

The IRFU have talked a good game to date about the next step after banishing foreigners from rugger was to spread talent through the provinces better, most recently in Cummiskey’s uncharacteristically excellent interview in the Irish Times excellent November rugger magazine last week. Time to see if they will put their money where their mouth is. Peter Nucifora, if it is actually he, might have an input here too – and he probably won’t be recommending queueing them up in Munster and Leinster.

We think / have been told that while Healy and McGrath are contracted through next year, both Munstermen will be out of contract at the end of the year – Cronin will surely enjoy an upgrade on whatever he is on now if his upward curve continues, but how would Frankie feel about his other client being offered, say, a central contract … with Ulster. Can you imagine Dave Kilcoyne fitting in in Belfast? With Munster currently in some financial woe, perhaps that might be his best option. Unless he goes to London Irish too.

No-one Like Us, And We Don’t Care

There was a time when Ulster were Irish rugby royalty – back in the 1980s they ruled the provincial roost under Jimmy Davidson and routinely accounted for large swathes the Irish XV. Allegations of pro-Ulster bias in selection resounded, and Munster were particularly seen as doing badly out of selection toss-ups.

But the situation has changed, changed utterly. Davidson (deposed in 1990) was the last Northern coach of Ireland, and, since professionalism, the growth in the game in Ireland has been driven by the southern provinces, in particular Munster, who remain the darlings of fans and media alike. And whyever not – much more fun to write about the storied Ligind pack than Clinton Schifcofske and Kieran Campbell. Plus Munster and Leinster were actually good – 1999 aside, Ulster have been muck for most of the professional era.

In recent years, Ulster’s potential for growth (from, er, the “other communities”) and hard academy and structural work has begun to pay off – the young players coming up are of the highest quality and are being managed well. The fact that the only four players (Marty Mooradze is close to becoming a fifth) from the Aviva Opening Game playing regular professional provincial rugby are not only Ulstermen, but Ulstermen challenging for Ireland shirts, says a lot.

But Ulster haven’t seemlessly moved back into the royalty zone – in fact, they get routinely patronised by the Irish media. When they went down to Thomond for the HEC quarter-final in 2012, Gerry said “Ulster are the better team, but Munster are the better province”. As they say in the parlance of our times, I was like wtf? And this weekend, when they beat Montpellier on their own patch by 17 points, an improvement of 57 points on Clermont’s most result there and 42 on Toulouse’s, the headlines were about Munster’s humdrum win over Gloucester B. ‘Munster Back on Track’ was the Sunday Times front page headline.  Munster were the first team mentioned in the RTE news item, while Ulster got a cursory mention, described as having ‘kept their hopes alive’ with their win.  Kept them alive?!  Bloody hell!  Had either of the southern powerhouses produced such a result, you can guarantee gushing and drooling coverage.

Old habits die hard, and, to be truthful, Ulster won’t really mind for now. Their bloodlines might be blue, but every Northerner has a deep well of bitterness to draw on – they have been the most impressive Irish province in the HEC this season by a mile, and are set well for another long challenge. If they get underestimated by their chums in the southern meeja, great, someone else to prove wrong.

The inevitable next stage in the chip-athon will be in the November internationals.  Ulster fans have grown well used to their players missing out on marginal team selections in recent seasons, and will be getting their sense of outrage ready for the occasion should, say, Gordon D’arcy be preferred to Luke Marshall.  It seems unlikely though, and there’s good news elewhere.  Paddy Jackson has made up significant ground while Madigan’s progress has stalled and although Iain Henderson is being deployed only as an impact substitute, there’s no reason why Ireland shouldn’t employ him in the same role; his wrecking-ball cameos off the bench have been stirring.  The rampantly in-form Tommy Bowe and Rory Best are certain starters.  The grantite-hard hooker’s throwing may never be better than a C+, but his work rate around the paddock is extraordinary, and against both Leicester and Montpellier he was an immovable object at the breakdown.

Round One Ponderings

Celtalians United

The Heineken Cup has a new dynamic added this year, as a result of all the political shennanigans going on behind closed-ish doors.  It’s best described using a technical term known as hoping-all-the-English-teams-get-hammered.  Once upon a time a game between two likeable teams like Llanelli Scarlets and Harlequins would leave us more or less neutral.  Time to catch one’s breath before the nerve-jangling Leinster match starts.  Not this time.  I was leaping around the room like a Llenelli native.  Of course, the English media have developed a nice habit of having it every which way: if their teams win, it’s proof of their natural superiority (Stephen Jones’ bleating after Saracens held on by their fingernails against Connacht was classic lady-doth-protest stuff) and if they lose it’s only because the Celts get to rest players in the league.  Think of it as not only having your cake and eating it, but having it, eating it and smearing the creme-pat in everyone’s face before having them pay you for the privilege.

Advantage Somebody, or Deuce?

Was Ulster’s 22-16 win over Leicester a good result or not? We aren’t really sure to be honest. Here are some of our thoughts:

  1. A win is a win. In a pool like this, make sure you win your home games, accumulate bonus points when you can, and get one away win. Ulster are on course for what they would have planned out: two wins over Treviso, with a try bonus at home, plus a win and a losing bonus point against Leicester and Montpellier. That will give them 19 points and put them right in the mix
  2. Who will be happier? Two seasons ago, Leicester lost the head-to-head to Ulster 5-4. This was one of the things they would have planned to address this time around. With a losing bonus point, they’ll expect to improve that to 5-5 or even 4-5 (from an Ulster standpoint) come the Welford Road game. Leicester have a poor record in Ulster – this result will have delighted them
  3. Montpellier won with the type of ease at Treviso that has become uncommon of late. They are second in the Top14, and are purring. Ulster need to go down there and come home with a losing bonus point – their performances in their last two European games on French soil have been the type they’ll need to produce again, but it’s going to be really really tough.

Thing is though, when push comes to shove, letting Leicester score that last penalty to get within seven feels terribly important. We fear they’ll regret it.  At least they know what they’ve to work on though.  If they could hold onto the ball they’d have won by 20 points.  Catching practive all week, chaps, and double sessions for Andrew Trimble.

Leinster do a Munster

Playing possum in the Pro12 before cranking up the intensity was supposed to be the preserve of the red team in Ireland, but this week it was Leinster who tore up the form book and produced what was a consummate away performance in what looked a very difficult match.  They were superb, reasserting themselves as one of the tournament favourites.  Relying on emotionally uplifting occasions to bring out the best in the players is a risky business, though, and Leinster fans will be happier if they can start racking up wins and moving up the league table, but this was a first big win for Matt O’Connor and justified an unpopular, but pragmatic and ultimately successful, team selection.  The stars of the show were the backrow, though, who devoured their opponents.  Kevin McLoughlin, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip played as if they were caged up all week, ocasionally thrown scraps of meat and urged to fight over them.  Sure, the cage may have been in Juniors, and the raw meat was fillet steak, but still and all…

Ch-ching

Cost Saving of the Week was on ROG-cam.  The Sky cameraman was able to get ROG and Johnny into the same shot as Johnny lined up a penalty and ROG stood behind him in his waterboy bib.  No need for a separate ROG-cam anymore, these days only one unit is required.  The money saved appears to have been spent on a funny screen-truck/ice-cream van that Will Greenwood uses to ask Sean O’Brien what was going through his mind as he was smashing everyone.

We’ll talk Munster tomorrow.

The Last Supper

And so, for possibly the last time ever, we write a preview for a tournament that has expanded the fan base and earning power of Northern Hemipshere rugby like no other. This time next year, we could be scrawling a few half-hearted lines on Pool 3 of the Rugby Champions Cup where “champions” Bath, Exeter, Stade Francais and the Saracns Globo Gym bosh it out for the right to get hockeyed by Toulon B in the Super Sixes stage. Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooohhh!!

Its quite obviously a complete fool’s errand to pick winners this far out, with so many variables between now and April, so we’re going to pick who gets through to the knock-out stages.

Pool 1: Castres, Leinster, Northampton, Ospreys

Very tough pool this for Leinster – they’ll need to win at least one away game to get through, and they have three tough ones. Leinster have started the season sluggishly and are missing Johnny Sexton badly – Ian Madigan has the talent to take the step up, but winning dirty away games in Europe is extremely tough, and this might be a year to chalk to experience. Leinster, Saints and Ospreys will all fancy winning their home games, and it could come down to who nicks what in Castres, and bonus points. Leinster have the advantage  of going to Castres late in the pool, when Castres have traditionally given up – this could end up the decisive factor. We’ll take Leinster to squeak through on their own, to an away quarter final, drawing on all their experience. The lurking Saints, replete with Kahn Fotuali’i and George North should not be underestimated, though they continue to look a top-class 10 away from being a really good team.  Brian O’Driscoll is, again, the key man for Leinster.

Pool 2: Cardiff, Exeter, Glasgow, Toulon

A gimme for the boshtastic champions here – the only game you can envisage sweat breaking is in Scotstoun, where Glasgae are a tough nut to crack. Problem is, the likes of Bakkies will only love stomping on the dreams of the brave Scots. Hard to see Toulon slipping up – they should have a home quarter final with plenty of tries in the bag. If Glasgae give this a lash, and there is no guarantee of that – the Pro12 has been their target in recent years – there is a potential lucky loser berth up for grabs here – Cardiff are dire and hemorrhaging players, and while Exeter are doughty and tough, they don’t have the class of Matawalu or Maitland in their ranks. But probably not. Toulon on their own.

Pool 3: Connacht, Saracens, Toulouse, Zebre

Exhibit A for the mouth-frothing McCafferty types – Connacht in the back door and Zebre permanent residents of the servant’s quarters. In previous seasons, Connacht have punched above their weight, but they are struggling so far this year – this could be less pleasant than previous years. Globo Gym have world dominating ambitions, but play a rank brand of rugby (albeit that in the Premiership they have shown a desire to expand their previously zero-dimensional style). If they didn’t give up home games for wads of cash, they might actually be contenders to win the pot itself – the agony if this lot took home the last ever HEC would be too much to bear. Toulouse are in re-building mode, and have had some moments of complete ineptitude in Europe in the last few years, but this really is an easy pool – Globo Gym and Toulouse to go through.

Pool 4: Clermont, Harlequins, Racing Metro, Scarlets

Four imperfect teams here – Clermont have the class and desire in Europe, but are ageing in Vern Cotter’s last year and are creaking at the seams a little. Quins seem to have hit a glass ceiling and were bitterly disappointing in their loss to Munster last season. Racing Metro can’t buy a try right now, and the Scarlets can’t scrummage. Seems like the Welshies might get beaten up a little here, and it will come down to one of the others getting a big win on the road. Clermont have the experience of this type of assignment, and that usually pays off in this tournament. This will be a fascinating pool – Racing Metro have no HEC pedigree to speak of, but they have outhalves (players and coaches) with five winners medals and immense experience. If Sexton gets the platform he needs, don’t rule out the Parisian toffs, but it’s the serial chokers from Montferrand who are the safer bet. On their own probably.

Pool 5: Leicester, Montpellier, Treviso, Ulster

Stinker of a draw for Ulster here, and very similar to that of two years ago, when they got through on the back of a memorable 41-7 thumping of the Tigers at Ravers. That was Palla’s first taste of the Friday Night Ravers Experience, and he almost turned Ulster as Paddy Wallace dumped Tom Croft on his backside. The difference then was they had Aironi to fill their boots against – here it’s Treviso who stand in their way, a much tougher prospect. Montpellier have the meanest pack in Europe, and look pretty well built for a pool like this – if they give it priority they have the tools to win it. Last year, they gave Europe a lash, but they were in with some Frenchies who they will never lie down against, and two bunnies (Cardiff and Sale) who are worse than all four teams here. This is Ulster’s last year with Afoa on board, but even with him, do they have the ballast up front to get points away from Ravers? The backs are immensely talented, probably the best in the pool, but we think Leicester have the class, the experience in assignments like this, and the memory of two years ago to come through this one. Montpellier are the next best bet, and Ulster are seriously unlucky.

Pool 6: Embra, Gloucester, Munster, Perpignan

This looked like a bye to the quarter final when the draw was made, and it still looks eminently do-able for Munster. A weakling Embra unit, a re-run of that game, and a bunch of flaky Frenchies piloted by James Hook look like easy meat. The flip side of that is that, if Gloucester get parity up front, their electric backs can beat anyone, Perpignan are formidable in their own ground, and Camille Lopez is pushing Hook for the USAP starting 10 berth. Much will depend on two people – Paul O’Connell and Ian Keatley. When O’Connell is available, Munster are 50% better, and if Keatley can manage a passable Rog impression, Munster will be home and hosed, replete with the usual Saturday evening tear-soaked home win. If USAP are interested, they could come through in a lucky losers slot built on two hammerings of Embra.

Our safe quarter-finalists: Clermont Auvergne, Leicester, Leinster, Munster, Perpignan, Saracens, Toulon, Toulouse

If we stuck our necks out: Montpellier, Munster, Northampton, Perpignan, Racing Metro, Saracens, Toulon, Toulouse

The Racing Bomb

There might be the small matter of a LIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIONS tour going on right now (almost literally), but there is a big event this afternoon – the HEC draw. [Aside: does this mean it’s going ahead?]

Everyone in Ireland has their beady eyes fixed on one foreign team in particular – Parisian toffs Racing Metro 92. Heart-broken Leinster and Munster fans are already planning tear-soaked pilgrimages to La Defense (but you can see it from the Arc de Triomphe – how can it take an hour to walk there!) to pay homage to lost icons J-Sex and Rog.

However, be careful what you wish for – because of the awkward rules of the HEC pool draw, drawing Racing Metro virtually ensures an absolute bee-atch of a draw. Here’s why:

  • Racing Metro are the lowest (European) ranked French side in the draw – that means they must be drawn with another bunch of garlic-munching surrender monkeys
  • They cannot be paired with newly-crowned Bouclier de Brennus owners Castres, as they are also bottom-dwelling Pool 4 losers
  • They also cannot be paired with Perpignan – Perpignan are in Pool 2 – each pool must contain an English team, and there are none in Pools 1 and 3

This means that if Racing Metro are to be paired with one of Ulster, Munster and Leinster, the remaining French side outside Pool 1 will be joining them – owners of the meanest pack in Europe, Montpellier. Uh oh – not so much fun any more eh?

And to add cream to the top of that ugly-looking draw, the requirement for an English team in every pool means you will get the dubious pleasure of one of Leicester, Saracens, Harlequins or Northampton. Even if you strike relative jackpot there and get the Saints, a pool featuring away trips to Racing, Montpellier and Northampton virtually ensures a best possible outcome of an away quarter-final, and a more likely outcome of being dumped out in January.

Ouch.

There is a one in four chance of that scenario unfolding (one in twelve for each of Leinster, Munster and Ulster), so it’s still unlikely – but it’s a horrendous prospect, fun away trips aside.

The big sharks to avoid, in WoC’s opinion, are Leicester in Tier 2 and Ospreys in Tier 3.  Leicester are newly restored to their rightful place as English Boshiership Champioons, and it is our opinion that they’ve been a touch short of good fortune in recent years in Europe, enduring some sticky draws and poorly timed injuries.  A patchy recent record masks their impressive quality, though a heavy load with the Lions might make the early part of the season difficult for them. Ospreys continue to be enigmatic, but there’s always the danger that they’ll get their act together, or even just time their best performances to coincide with facing the team you support and do some real damage.

Full list of pools:

Tier 1 – Leinster Rugby, Toulon, Toulouse, ASM Clermont Auvergne, Ulster Rugby, Munster Rugby

Tier 2 – Northampton Saints, Harlequins, Cardiff Blues, Saracens, Leicester Tigers, Perpignan

Tier 3 – Edinburgh Rugby, Ospreys, Scarlets, Glasgow Warriors, Montpellier, Connacht Rugby

Tier 4 – Gloucester Rugby, Castres Olympique, Racing Metro 92, Exeter Chiefs, Benetton Treviso, Zebre

Judgement Call

We are struggling to think of anything as unbelievable (in this sense of not being believable) as Dylan Hartley being sent off in a Premiership final for calling Wayne Barnes a “f*cking cheat”. Its just so crazy. Consider this:

  • He is captain of the Saints
  • It was one of the biggest games of his career
  • He had previously been warned by Barnes for verbals
  • He was due to fly out on a Lions tour in a matter of days
  • Barnes had flagged his desire not to be making high-profile decisions, following some previous controversies in Premiership playoffs (e.g. Chris Ashton getting binned for being lamped by Manu)

As sporting meltdowns go, it takes some topping – Zinedine Zidane and Richie Tennenbaum are about the only ones we can think of.

Hartley will miss the Lions tour, for which Rory “Nice-but-throws-awry” Best has been called up in his stead. Best is the classiest of chaps, as evidenced by his tweet in the aftermath of not being selected initially – he referred to how this paled into insignificance compared to the bigger things in life, such as the Nevin Spence tragedy.

Like injury being Ireland’s best selector, perhaps Hartley’s meltdown has been Gatty’s – there is a recent history of late callups playing key roles in Lions’ series (Paul Wallace, Tom Croft) and Besty, although clearly third choice right now, has a chance to do the same. Having said that, he is clearly third choice by now – unlike Tom Youngs (Premiership Player of the Year) and Richard Hibbert (standout hooker in the Six Nations), and wasn’t selected initially for a good reason – he simply wasn’t playing well enough.

What it also calls into question, however, is Gatty’s judgement – he considered Hartley to have the talent and mental capacity to thrive on a Lions tour – that assessment is in tatters after Saturday, and if the tour starts to go wrong, it will  be used as a stick to beat Gatty with. He’s been rowing back a bit since Saturday, talking about how he agonized afterwards had he made the right decision, and talked about Graham Rowntree’s input, but the buck stops with him, and he picked Hartley.

The Lions, more than any other team, consider that you are just minding the jersey for the next man, and the semi-mythic status of the red jersey reflects that. For example, Gerald Davies was just keeping his shirt warm for Ugo Monye, and he’ll pass it on to George North, and so on.

Without getting too teary about it, any discussion of the Lions is incomplete without a reference to “character” – is Player X a Lion, they’ll say, which has a greater implication than his ability – it talks to more earthy qualities, like smiling through midweek games with NSW Country and being a “good tourist”.  Hartley always struck us as an odd selection, even leaving aside our Besty-love – he routinely cracks under pressure, and has accumulated multiple bans. Gatty’s faith in him has been shredded in spectacular fashion – let’s hope he gets more calls right than wrong from here on.

The Last 2%

So Leinster saw off Schmidty, Johnny Sex-bomb and Isa Nacewa with a much-coveted Pro12 title – while Ulster were the better team over the year, Leinster were better on the day. They out-scored their hosts/visitors two tries to none, and looked a little more composed all day.

Their experience of bigger days certainly told, and they had ice in their veins at key moments. Ulster came out a tad over-exuberant and struggled to come to terms with Lacey’s refereeing, giving away 4 penalties in 8 minutes, while Leinster eschewed three points from an early penalty and went for the corner, resulting in their first try. Hurting your opponent at key times is something Leinster excel at – think early in the second half in Bordeaux last year.

Ulster had a similar situation with an hour gone – they had momentum and had turned Leinster over a few times, then earned a penalty in the corner at 12-19. Egg remarked to his companion that this was the time to go for the corner and try to really turn the screw on Leinster, but as he talked, the entire Ulster team walked backwards and prepared for Pienaar to take a shot. There was no discussion of going to the corner at all, which surprised us. What would Leinster have done? What would Munster have done – the theatrical conversation between O’Connell and O’Gara preceding the inevitable kick down the line is well known at this stage. We’re just not sure three points was what the doctor ordered at that stage in the game.

In the final analysis, Leinster were able to eke out tries and Ulster weren’t – or conversely, Leinster were able to keep Ulster out, while Ulster couldn’t do likewise – Leinster had key interventions to prevent tries – Boss after PJ’s chargedown, Sexton holding up Diack, the scrum just about holding up from 20-25 minutes.

Those little extra things, and the nous that comes from multiple finals (this was their sixth in three years under Joe Schmidt) told for Leinster – and Ulster will be back, hopefully with lessons learned. They have had another good season,  but the next step is going to be learning how to win these big games. It isn’t a given that a team will make that final step from contender either. Some teams climbed the mountain step by painful step (Munster), some went virtually straight to the top (Leinster), some seem to be forever bridesmaids, but do get the occasional fulfillment (Clermont) and some simply never do it (Northampton Saints).

Ulster’s homework this summer is to figure out what they need to add to their game, and plan accordingly. They seem to have most of the starting XV personnel in place (caveat, Fez is a massive loss) but just need to work out the next step – be it better execution, more ambition in the gameplan, a better use of the bench, whatever. Oddly, the one impact sub in the backline they had, Paul Marshall, was unused – having a Plan B would certainly be a start if Plan A wasn’t really working. Still, they can feel satisifed with their efforts in this years Rabo, and rest easy that they did the memory of the tragic Nevin Spence proud. As for Leinster, all you can say is Matt O’Connor has one hell of a tough job living up to this.

Postscript: John Lacey did not have a good game. Leaving aside his obvious frustration at the early penalties, Anscombe made an excellent point after the game – shouldn’t the best referee available be in charge for the final? Of the Celtic refs, Owens would have been that man – was there a reason he wasn’t there? Was it that we wanted an Irish ref? If so, it couldn’t have been Rolland, so the only other alternative was *gulp* Clancy. Last year, though, it was Poite, but presumably the best French refs were busy at the Top14 semi-finals. Getting to the nub of the issue then – if the Pro12 wants to be taken seriously, it needs to start awarding finals to referees with the kind of stature the league aspires to – Superstar Steve Walsh, opportunity knocks!

The Pro12: Its a Wrap

We rarely have good things to say about the Pro12 – don’t get us wrong, we love the games, and think its underrated as a development tool (ask Mike Cheika if Leinster would have won the HEC in 2009 without winning the then-Magners the previous year), but it is a bit dowdy. Trips to an empty Murrayfield, the presence of the zebra-bunnies, the Irish interpros with 2.5th teams and the lamentable organisation of the Welsh regions do not exactly compare well to the skill levels and intensity of the Top14 or the glitzy try-fest that is Ooooooooooooooh the Premiership. Plus its boring most of the time to be frank – its generally highly predictable.

It might seem a bit rich to be taking a pop at the Pro12 for not being competitive enough when the other two European pro leagues have had the same 10 teams in the playoffs for the past two seasons, but its true – the Pro12 has been pretty dull for much of its history. Leinster, Munster and the Ospreys have dominated, and the odd challenge by someone else is noticeable by its rarity.

Its easy for McCafferty and the like to point fingers at the lack of relegation, but its hard to see how that has benefitted, say, the Dragons or Connacht. Relegation, and the creative destruction it sometimes wreaks, can sometimes be a positive force – just ask the juvenated Saints.

But the cartel may be changing – its been a positive season on the depth front. For a start, Ulster might win it this year. Before the play-offs started, we would have picked Leinster, but after struggling past Glasgow, and post-Amlin, they look a little beaten up – Ulster’s stroll in the park past a lamentable Scarlets effort has set them up well, and the drive that  comes from honouring the tragic Nevin Spence could well be too much for Leinster. To be truthful, we’re split down the middle (naturally), but since Egg holds the pen right now, he’s going to pick Ulster by a nose.

Getting back to the Scarlets, we get that the regions are not in a good place right now, and that the structures of Welsh professional rugby are somewhat teetering, but none of that excuses the lack of effort from the Scarlets’ two Lions (one more than Ulster, don’t forget) in their semi-final – Johnny Davies looked panicked and passed poorly all day, and George North’s statuesque defending would have embarrassed Lesley Vainikolo.

That aside, the Scarlets were there for their season-long consistency, and most of them will be back next year (though not North unfortunately). Ulster won’t just be back, they’ll expect to win it. What then of Glasgae, the third cartel-buster in the playoffs?

Unlike this season, when Glasgow had a summer of flux, having to manage the loss of key players such as Richie Grey and Kelly Brown ,and a long-serving coach in Sean Lineen, they will be able to build on top of this season’s excellent effort. Last years recruits (Matawalu, Maitland and Strauss – an excellent summer of work) will have had this season under their belts, and they’ll be even better for it.

The most interesting challenge next season may well come from Treviso – the Italians have always had that ‘plucky underdog’ look about them, where they can win at home, albeit narrowly, but struggle away. This season, they started winning away, and handing out some hurt to teams as well (notably Munster and the Scarlets) – their wretched winter ruined their chances of finishing even further up the league than seventh,

So next season, as well as the old firm of Leinster, Munster and the Ospreys sniffing around the playoffs (Ospreys and, particularly, Munster will want to improve on this seasons showing – Munster, like Ulster last year, gave up after the HEC quarter-final), you’ll have Ulster, Glasgow, the Scarlets, Treviso, and possibly even Cardiff if they get their ass together. As well as seven competitive teams, you have teams from all four constituent countries will harbour playoff ambitions for the first time – and that’s a good thing, particularly as Sky begin the process of glamming it up.

As for Saturday, lets enjoy it – thankfully the Ulster-Leinster rivalry is still a friendly one, and its going to be a sunny, beery, relaxing day out! Plus we’re certain the home team will win.

Sealing the Deal

Ulster had a great night at the Pro12 gongs at the weekend, hoovering up nice statuettes like they were going out of fashion:

  • Nick Williams, who we outed as a dreadful signing in August, deservedly won Player of the Year – his limitations have been exposed at times in the rarified HEC air, but Williams has thrived in the dowdier Pro12.  He followed this up by being voted IRUPA POTY by his peers, a huge honour. We owe him a mea culpa ^2 for deriding him as a terrible signing on arrival.
  • Bamm-Bamm Marshall won young POTY – the lad basically got into the Ireland team on potential and excellent Pro12 form, and he showed that if you have got it, you have got it – here’s hoping he comes back clear headed and fully fit
  • Matinee Idol Andrew Trimble won try of the year for this effort. Trimble has a reputation as a boshing wing, but he doesn’t half score some spectacular tries,  – the out-Bathing of Bath a few years back when Ulster weren’t great was a stunner, for example.  Trimble has reached double digits in tries this season, outscoring a number of more celebrated players
  • Specsavers Great Chap / Fair Play award – only six yellow cards this season – and we must say, from Rory Best back to Craig Gilroy, they are a likeable team of fine young men, who know how to stay out of trouble and keep their bibs clean.

*APPLAUSE*

All of the above was deserved, and there is no doubt there is a huge amount of goodwill out there towards the Ulstermen, given the circumstances in which the season began for them.  It’s safe to say most neutrals will be willing on Ulster to do it for Nevin from here. But it is imperative that Ulster go on and pick up some silverware if this season is to be a successful one – the HEC was a bit of a let-down, and finishing top of the league brings with it a responsibility to seal the deal (are we right, Leinster?).

Failure to do so last year was very frustrating for Leinster, and it’s unfortunate for Ulster that their rivals are likely to be waiting for them should they get past the Hard-Scrummaging Scarlets in the semi-final – the lads from D4 dearly want this pot to make up for past defeats.

Ulster started off the Pro12 like a train, streaking clear of the field to such an extent that a home semi-final looked assured, but their tailspin in the winter was so dramatic they fell off top spot at one point. That the upturn in form has been driven by the sustained excellence of youngsters Stuart Olding and NWJMB is positive for squad depth, but negative in that neither player has played a Pro12 final, while most of the Leinster squad have played in several.  Last year Ulster made a final, but seemed inhibited by the occasion.  Can they show up properly this time?

It’s a tough ask to go to the Oar Dee Esh and win, but that’s what Ulster are going to have to do – they’ve done it once before this season, and they have the best motivation possible to do it again.