Away We Go

The Heineken Cup quarter finals are imminent. It’s always hard to see past the home sides in these games, and traditionally home advantage holds a big sway, but there’s usually one team able to overturn expectations and pull off a win on the road. Last year it was Munster, who were unfancied going to Harlequins but raised their intensity to levels Quins couldn’t deal with. The year before that it was Ulster, who went and sacked the Thomond Park fortress in a remarkable game. Which of the four look the most likely this time?

  1. Toulouse, at Munster. It’s increasingly hard to see Toulouse pulling off a result in this match. Their away form has been dismal all season and there are doubts over Louis Picamoles and Yannick Nyanga and Dusatoir is still injured. With the likes of Medard, Fickou, Huget and Poitrenaud in their backline they should be one of the most exciting teams around, but it never really comes to fruition. If you’re wondering why, the clue might be in their half-backs. Jean-Marc Doussain is a scrum half in the Tomas O’Leary mould – picked for his physicality, he lacks mobility and intuition. Simply put, he’s a poor player for a club of this stature. Luke McAllister is a great footballer, but not a great 10 or a great place-kicker. Ulster showed that you can still win in Thomond Park even if your 10 plays rubbish, but only if your nine makes up for him. Can’t see that happening here, with the caveat that Toulouse’ bruising pack ground down Globo Gym once they were let into the game. If Munster whack and bag them early, tears will flow.
  2. Leicester Tigers, at Clermont. Nobody wins at the Stade Marcel Michelin, and Leicester, for all their undoubted awkward toughness and never-say-die attitude, do not look quite good enough to break what has been an incredible winning streak at home. Clermont are just too good, and their annual choke doesn’t usually get started until later. Leicester came up short in both games against Ulster, despite throwing everything at them and a similar outcome here feels inevitable. Having Tuilagi back in the fold is great news for them, and don’t expect Leicester to give Clermont anything cheap, but even if it’s tight, Clermont will pull through in the end.
  3. Saracens, at Ulster. The new Ravenhill is ready. Are Ulster? They look to have gone the old Munster route, throwing in a careless Pro12 defeat the week before the game, which gives Anscombe plenty of scope to kick them up the rear and get minds focused on the game ahead. Assuming Pienaar is fit, they’ve a pretty full deck to choose from. Even Ferris could feature, presumably as part of a double-whammy with Iain Henderson with 20 minutes to go. But what of Saracens? Never the most likeable of clubs, with the odious chairman Nigel Wray spearheading the European rugby governance coup, they have at least tried to broaden their game this season. They always looked to have the players capable of playing a bit more footie than they did, especially the superbly balanced Alex Goode, and it’s working well for them; they’re top of the Premiership and top try-scorers too, averaging almost three a match. This will be a hard game for Ulster and Saracens have a reasonable chance of pulling out an away win; in truth if the away win comes from anywhere it is most likely to be here. Ulster have shown enough toughness in this competition to deserve the tip, but Saracens are confident and in good form.
  4. Leinster, at Toulon. If timing is everything, Leinster have got this one wrong. Before the Six Nations, Bernard Jackman, the resident expert on all things French rugby, saw no reason why Leinster couldn’t win, citing Toulon’s shoddy morale, poor coaching, infighting and mediocre results as evidence. Roll on a few weeks and Toulon have put together five wins out of six in the Top 14 and the juggernaut appears to be pointing in the right direction. Heck, they’ve even won an away game! In the Top 14! Sacre bleu! As for Leinster, they’re just not playing well enough to be confident of getting what would be a remarkable win. Their greatest wins have been based on the twin pillars of accurate passing and near-feral clear-out; neither have been in much supply this season. Doubts remain over who will play at fly-half and whether the selected player can deliver. We’d have guessed Jimmy Gopperth was favourite, but it looks like O’Connor may feel his best chance is to approach this game as he would a home tie and play at as high a tempo as possible against what is a huge, but not overly mobile Toulon pack. So we’re expecting Jennings, Reddan and Madigan all to be in the starting team. Leinster still look to be dining out on their performance in Northampton this year and something of the same order is required here. Being Leinster, they can’t be ruled out but it’s a tall order. A home win looks the more likely.

Forgive the blandness of the opinion, but four home wins looks the most probable outcome, which would give us a semi-final line-up of Ulster-Clermont and Toulon-Munster. Both have met in recent years, with Ulster likely to look back with fonder memories. Clermont’s flakiness under pressure and poor record in Ireland would lead you to hesitate picking Clermont, but still, a repeat of last years final is a distinct possibility, and any winner other than Toulon would be a mild surprise.  The winner of Toulon-Leinster becomes tournament favourite.

Time to Get a Move On

For all the jolliness around Irish rugby right now, for a handful of players this season has been one frustration after another. And things could be about to get more frustrating for some of them when the teams are announced for the Heineken Cup knockouts this weekend.

Despite knocking Paddy Jackson off the bench for the final round of the Six Nations, this has not been a campaign to remember for Ian Madigan. After two years of huge gains, the departure of Jonny Sexton looked set to hand him the breakthrough he needed, but instead Madigan has found himself struggling to oust the less heralded Jimmy Gopperth. Gopperth is a fine player and has numerous strengths, but if Madigan was playing like he did last season he’d be starting all the big matches. He just hasn’t got going yet. Every time we see him inked into the starting team for a home game we get the feeling his season is about to spark, but so far it hasn’t really happened. He played well enough against Munster, but his kicking game remains loose and his superb gainline passing hasn’t been in as much evidence this year, with O’Connor appearing to play him deeper behind the gainline. For the Toulon game, Jimmy Gopperth is probably slight favourite to get picked.

Another who has only played in fits and starts this season is Kevin McLaughlin. Injury hasn’t helped, but his form since returning has been spotty to say the least. He was a weak-ish link against Munster, and the memory of his explosive 20 minutes against New Zealand has receded somewhat. He wasn’t involved in even the training squads for the Six Nations, and now has to contend with a new sheriff in town at Leinster in Rhys Ruddock. Ruddock is a 6 in the Simon Easterby mould, a good lineout catcher who gets on with the ‘unseen work’ of carrying slow ball and clearing out rucks, and if fit is likely to be selected ahead of McLaughlin. With Jordi Murphy and Shane Jennings vying for the No.7 shirt, McLaughlin could find himself outside the 23 altogether.

Meanwhile, up in Ulster, they have their backline all fit (apart from Olding) for the first time in a long time. Bowe and Trimble are undroppable and Marshall plays 12. One has to miss out between Craig Gilroy and Darren Cave, with Jared Payne able to switch between 15 and 13. This weekend, it was Cave who got selected. He’s been one of Ulster’s most consistent players this season and while the clamour to get Payne into the 13 shirt has some, shall we say, external motivators, Ulster are still best served by him playing 15. It means Gilroy loses his starting place. It’s been a difficult year for Gilroy, who, like Madigan, just hasn’t really sparked into life. His exceptional performance against Argentina in 2012 underlined his explosive talent, but he hasn’t been able to replicate it since then. And where has the scoring nous gone?  He scored eight tries in 14 appearances in his first season, but the well has dried up. He managed just one last year and three this, last scoring in mid-December.

Down south, Donnacha Ryan could do with catching a break. He was one of the best players in the country in 2012, but has since then gone from injury to injury. A lacklustre 2013 Six Nations which he appeared to play through an injury scuppered his Lions chances and since then he’s had a pretty stop-start time of it. Now he’s once again doubtful for the game against Toulouse. He’d be a big loss to Munster, because Donncha O’Callaghan is no longer at this level and it’s a sizeable step down to Dave Foley. In the meantime, Devin Toner has cemented his place in the Ireland team, and next year should be a breakthrough for Iain Henderson, with Muller retiring. The heat is on. Schmidt’s singling of Ryan out for his work on the training paddock was a reminder of how highly he is regarded, and rightly so, but he needs an unbroken run of games to build some momentum.

Taking Care of Bid’ness

Contract negotiations are a tricky thing at the best of times, and in a sense, it’s a thankless task for which you can only be criticised.  Throw contracts out like confetti and you’ll be accused of being wasteful (‘Why was Denis Leamy given a two year contract when he was clearly a crock?’).  Play hardball and you’ll be accused of not taking the players for granted (‘Come on, it’s Sean O’Brien, just pay the man’).

At this juncture it looks like the IRFU have more or less taken care of bid’ness, for this sseason anyway.  With Jamie Heaslip, Paul O’Connell and Keith Earls recently signing on the line that is dotted, pretty much all the red-flagged contract re-signings have been locked down*.  Marty Moore, Sean O’Brien and Conor Murray were among the others that had recently signed on.  It’s a great bit of business in what looked a particularly daunting assignment not that long ago.

This year always looked trickier than those in the recent past.  Two issues loomed especially large on proceedings: the uncertainty (still ongoing) over European rugby’s future and the possible emboldening of the French club owners following Racing’s successful recruitment of Johnny Sexton last year.  In truth, the IRFU must have done pretty well to convince the contracted players that they would have some actual rugby to play next season, because any sort of clarity seems miles off.  In France, they’ll always be assured that no matter what else, the Top 14 will remain a long, competitive grind.  And certainly, given that sheer number of stories circulating in the media, it appears that the French clubs believed they could lure one or two more Irish over to their league.

We all remember Brian O’Driscoll being linked with Biarritz, and the Basque club was seen as an exotic location where only our very best would be considered.  But this season just about every Irish player was linked in some way to some French club.  If you weren’t going on a fact-finding mission to some Top 14 training ground to check out the envy-inspiring facilities (‘We don’t even have to play three games a season in a run down heap of a ground for contractual reasons?!  I’m in’) you were pretty much alone.  Sean O’Brien to Clermont or Toulon, Donnacha Ryan to Perpignan, Jamie Healsip to Toulon, Conor Murray to Racing; they were all at it.

Even Marty Moore, having barely started a senior game of note, was apparently being lured to la sud de France by the megabucks.  Presumably the agents who fed the stories to a media who gleefully lapped it up can consider their mission to be accomplished.  Whatever about the lure of the lifestyle and money in France, but when Keith Earls was linked with Reading Samoa it looked a media story too far.  Why any player highly regarded at his team, where he gets to play Heineken Cup rugby on the doorstep of where he grew up, would give that up to scratch around the lower reaches of the Boshiership is anyone’s guess.

One thing that perhaps worked out in the IRFU’s favour has been the sheer weight of the workload Sexton has been under, which has been widely broadcast.  But at the end of the day, the players want to play for the teams to which they are so attached.  The IRFU hopefully recognise that the pull if playing for one’s native province still has a huge pull for the players.

*Not Tom Court obviously – his face just doesn’t fit

Are Ulster the new Munster?

Ulster fans will not have been surprised to note that the headline of the Irish Times on Monday was not about the best game of the group stages, an epic sack of Welford Road, but about a potential Leinster-Munster semi-final should both prevail against French nouveau riche™ and aristocrats™ respectively.

Nor will they have been surprised to see under-representation on the ERC Player of the Year long list published yesterday – Ulster were the only group winner to have a single nomination, with four others getting two each and Toulon getting three for sleepwalking through a gimme pool. Ulster recorded four wins against quarter-finalists of last years tournament (two away from home) and were left with the same number of nominees as also-rans Northampton Saints. Miles Benjamin got one for Gawd’s sake.

This isn’t to say any of the 15 are obviously undeserving candidates, all had a good pool stages, but did all 15 have a greater influence on the pool stages than, say, Chris Henry?

Further, Ulster were described as “most improved” on Second Captains – where we went to school, “most improved” was a pat on the head for the guy or girl who wasn’t at the races but needed a bit of encouragement to keep the head up.

In truth, Humph probably won’t mind this one bit – Ulster are slowly adjusting to their new status in Irish rugby, a status where Munster and Leinster enjoy the lion’s share of column inches, Ireland caps and profile. It used to be said in the 80s that Ulster players got easy caps (ask Ger Earls, something of a cause celebre in his day) – not any more. This well of bitterness that is building up within the Ulster team and support is something Deccie tapped very effectively when Munster coach – in his first stint, he would refer to Francois Pienaar’s Saracens as “the Man United of rugby” and talk about how Toulouse had no respect for Munster. The pats on the head about passion became condescending enough that Munster decided to do something about it – by hoovering up silverware.

Ulster look like they are heading the same direction – their under-representation (percieved or otherwise) on Joe Schmidt’s Ireland team during the Six Nations is likely to be an advantage come April, and the sense of grievance will be a powerful motivator for players and fans as the season goes on.

Epic

Ulster did what Egg so emotionally implored them to do, and played the music with vigour on Saturday night – not panicking when 6 points down in the first half, then stepping up the intensity when 10 down in the second – the Ulstermen played with such power and poise that Leicester were simply shut down in a ground in which they hadn’t lost a European game in seven years (we can’t remember who last beat them but it may have involved a heroic 50m kick into driving rain that had Barnesy choking on his Beaujolais), incorporating games against the best in Europe in that period. Chris Henry showed why Joe Schmidt paid such attention to him when Leinster coach, Roger Wilson showed why Darren Cave thinks he is as good as Jamie Heaslip, Ruan Pienaar added the finishing touches and Besty the finesse with the boot.

Every scrap, metre and loose ball was vigorously fought for and the margin of victory was always going to be slim.  Leicester were getting weaker as the game went on, with injuries taking their toll, and Ulster were getting stronger thanks to an impact-stacked bench.  Iain Henderson is arguably among the players of the pool stages without starting a game.  Would 80 minutes be too long for Leicester to hold on or too short for Ulster to get ahead on the scoreboard?

In the end it was long enough for Ulster to manufacture the winning scores and see out the game.  Journeys to greatness are made of such wins – just ask the great Leinster and Munster sides.  Heineken Cups are won not just in the finals themselves but in the heart-stopping landmark away wins that foster belief and togetherness.

It was an epic contest, a classic of the Heineken Cup genre – the first really unforgettable match of this year’s less than vintage tournament.  The Globo Gym-Toulouse game came close but was a bit too boshtastic. In previous years, there have been multiple games like this throughout the pool stages, but the decline in quality of the middle tier has left this years tournament pretty bereft – it took two of the big boys to produce the defining game of the pool stages.

Looking forward from here, Ulster will fancy themselves to beat Globo Gym in front of the new Ravers stands. They won’t be over-represented on Joe Schmidt’s Ireland selections (which will help them keep that store of bitterness going), and have impressive togetherness as a group. The Saracens won’t go away easily though and should not be underestimated, but the idea of shoving Chris Ashton’s swallow dive form last season up his hoop should provide further motivation, as if any were needed.  Sarries aren’t quite the boshers of yore (we’re still calling them Globo Gym though) and have expanded their game this year, recognising that their brand of hoof-and-run was not enough to beat the very best teams.  It’s bringing the best out in them, and in truth they always had players capable of playing a bit: Charlie Hodgson, David Strettle and especially the quicksilver Alex Goode and outside centre Schalk Brits.  He’s an outside centre, right?

[Aside: speaking of Globo Gym, the sight of Rodney Ah Here being mashed by Mako Vunipola, who himself was mashed by Ben Alexander, was rather unedifying to say the least.  His contribution around the park wasn’t too impressive either.  His first two carries saw him shunted backwards and then turned over.  And as one poster on a rugby fan forum said last week ‘he is capable of being equally out of breath after five minutes on both sides of the scrum’. We’d love to know the logic for bringing him into the Ireland squad – maybe his tackle bag holding is even better than Darren Cave’s.]

If the pool stages were a bit humdrum, at least the knockout games are exquisitely poised.  While Gerry is understandably drooling over the prospect of more interprovincial blood-letting a Leinster-Munster semi-final, it’s Toulon who will be happiest with that draw – being home (or in Marseille) in a semi-final is a huge motivator. Leinster will do very well to overcome the absence of the two pillars of their back-to-back HECs, Johnny Sex-bomb and SOB, and Toulon is a very hard place to win. Munster’s pack is possibly the most technically proficient left in the competition, but they are facing a Toulouse side who went to the Globo Gym and faced down a beefy pack – this one will be trench warfare, and it’s even possible Toulouse will try to tackle the marauding Munster forwards, unlike Embra.  It has the makings of a classic match.  Neither side is as good as when they last met in 2008, but both know how to fight to the death.

Likewise, Ulster won’t fear Clermont (or Leicester, in theory) in the Aviva if they negotiate the obstacle course that is the Saracens centre partnership – if that game does come to pass, it will likely come down to Clermont’s mental strength under pressure. It hasn’t been their strongest suit of recent years, and we just can’t pick them to win a big semi-final away from the Michelin.  For all the Clermont-worship that goes on, they still aren’t the world’s greatest team on the road.

So, if we were calling it now, we’d say an Ulster-Toulon final is in prospect, but the knockouts are often like a different tournament – so the usual health warnings apply. In fact, let’s face it, we’re getting miles ahead of ourselves.  The tracks are dry and there is the small matter of a Six Nations in between, so the physical and mental wellbeing of the players can be completely different when April comes around.  Leinster barely scraped out of their group in 2009, but the other side of a Grand Slam they went on to win the Cup.  Let the interprovincial blood-letting battle commence!

Play The Music

Ulster have come a long way in a short period of time – they were rubbish for the four years from 2006-10 and it was terrible – no offence to Connacht (note: Connacht will be offended), but scrapping around for the third Irish HEC place is not where Ulster want to be, or see themselves. Since 2010, they have gradually got their act together, and improved performances have seen some increasingly fun European experiences:

  • In 2010/11, they did the double over Oooooooohh Bath, getting the ‘win on English soil’ monkey off their backs in the process. A last-minute penalty from iHumph in a mudbath in Ravers against Biarritz sealed a quarter-final place for the first time in 12 years. When they got there, they were out-boshed by Courtney Lawes, who looked a world beater, and ground down by the Saints. This was a very different Ulster team from the current one, with half the team (mostly the backs) having been replaced – Adam D’Arcy and Simon Danielli started the Saints game *shudders* as did Nevin Spence .. RIP
  • The next season, they got a stinker of a draw – Clermont Auvergne and Leicester. Missing out on a bonus point in Welford Road looked terminal, but a thumping bonus point win in Ravers turned things around. Other results meant they didn’t need anything from the Auvergne when they went there, but they nearly turned over the bananamen. Last spot in the QF rankings was good enough for a trip to the six-and-oh Brave and Faithful – its one of the pecularities of Irish rugby that Ulster always fancy themselves (and often deliver) against Munster. They won that day on the back of a spectacular Craig Gilroy try, some long-range boots from Ruan Pienaar and iHumph and loads of tackles against a Munster-side in the worst throes of the McGahanBall era. The semi-final was when Wee PJ was dumped in, and Embra were beaten, if not too impressively. In the final, a Leinster team at the zenith of the powers proved too much
  • Last year, the next step was to win a pool – and they got help in the form of a favourable draw involving Glasgae, the Saints and Castres. Win the pool they did, at a canter, but a careless home defeat after smashing Northampton away (sound familiar, Leinster fans?) cost them a home quarter-final. They had to travel to Vicarage Road Allianz Park Wembley Twickenham to face Globo Gym, and got boshed out of it up front – that loveable scamp Chris Ashton swan-dived to score the victory-sealing try on the hour mark (never mind the seven missed tackles, just enjoy the showboating)

Ulster have clearly progressed – they have scraped through as runners-up, then powered through as runners-up, then wobbled through as group winners – and qualifying for the knockouts with a week to spare is a result, particularly given this yer’s pool. And yet, a fourth away quarter final on the spin would feel stagnant – to continue their upward trend, they need to win this pool. And to do that, they need to beat Leicester.  On two occasions in this pool Ulster have shown a lack of ruthlessness, which could have expensive consequences; in allowing Leicester escape from Ravenhill with a losing bonus point, and in failing to score the fourth try in the final 20 minutes against Montpellier.  On both occasions, Ulster were dominant, but made to pay for a lack of killer instinct in the opposition’s 22, with too many visits to the red zone failing to convert into points – a failing they just can’t shake off.

Welford Road is not a place opposing teams win very often, but then again, a Leicester team like this isn’t seen very often either. This isn’t the Leicester of Johnno, Neil Back and Geordan Murphy; nor is it even the Leicester of Castro, Tom Croft and Oooooooooh Alesana Tuilagi – this is the Leicester of Neil Briggs, Sebastian de Chaves and Jamie Gibson. This Ulster team has grown increasingly chippy and together as time has gone on – the Nevin Spence experience brought them close as a group, and the perception within the team that they aren’t getting due reward at international level is driving a bitterness that, if channeled correctly (see Deccie’s first stint in charge of Munster for some classic examples of the genre) can bring a team on .. or overload it with negative emotion if handled incorrectly.

After losing two knockout games to English teams in the last three years, it’s high time Ulster delivered in a game like this – they have the team, they have the players, they have the experience, and it’s time to just do it. Munster and Leinster both won classic games in England en route to silverware, and now Ulster have a golden opportunity to follow suit and vault themselves into the real top tier of Europe. Win the match and they finish the pool with six wins and are top seeds in the quarter final draw, staring down a home quarter-final against, erm, probably Leicester.  Let’s finish with an apt quote: “You can play the notes. Someday, you might be able to play the music” – Roger Ebert.

Time for Ulster to start playing the music.

Tigers on the Horizon

It’s hard to put the finger on why this Ulster fan is so worried about the upcoming HEC rounds, but the pack being shunted all around Ravers by the Brave and the Faithful last Friday night would be a good place to start – Munster got two tries from the maul, and should probably have had a third. Since the slapdown of a potentially difficult (but in the end not so much) Treviso assignment for 10 group points, they’ve struggled past the Zebras, produced a worse-than-usual performance in their habitual Oar Dee Esh defeat, then scraped home against Munster.

Montpellier might come over with a disinterested B team, and will likely be thoroughly unimpressed with the weather in Belfast, but Ulster still will need a result (of some sort, to be decided after this weekend) in Welford Road. Now Leicester’s form is fairly uninspiring – they got fed a 40-burger by Globo Gym and have 1 loss (Quins) and two draws (Saints, Ooooooooh Bath) in Welford Road this year – but if you turn up without a pack that can compete you’ll struggle.

Without Johann Muller, with Gentlemanly Conduct’s Besty just back, John Afoa seemingly still on holiday mode and Fez still out, Ulster are low on the type of prime beef needed for the kind of #unseenwork that bonus points in Leicester are made of. Ulster will undoubtedly be glad to qualify, particularly after the draw they got, but they can’t shake off the Tigers (that last minute bonus point they got in Ravenhill felt crucial at the time) and a knockout game away from Ravers will feel like a disappointment, especially if it’s the last HEC. The stadium deserves a big game, but the team need to deliver, and, right now, you’d fancy Leicester. Until Ulster actually do it, the team with the history of delivering in these games must get the nod.

Meanwhile, Leinster travel to Castres for the sort of game that players and fans simply dread.  Castres are going well in the Top 14 and won’t get out of their pool in the HEC, so one might expect them to shrug a shoulder at this game, but the ‘spirit of the belltower’ (thank you Bernard Jackman) means they will be competitive at home no matter what.  Leinster fans still have nightmares over the defeat there in December 2008, arguably the province’s nadir and the game which prompted Neil Francis to give the team an unmerciful kicking in his column, replete with ‘ladyboys’ jibes and all.  These matches tend to be grind-a-thons and as a supporter you simply hope to come out the right side on the scoreboard.  Leinster must win or risk letting Northampton sneak ahead of them in the pool.

Munster travel to Gloucester in what is no longer a must-win but rather should-win game.  Glaws’ dire home defeat to Edinburgh has let them off the hook, and even if Munster lose here, a victory at home to Embra in their final pool game will almost certainly qualify them.  A win would go some way to boosting their chances of a home quarter-final, and they should be able to manage it.  They are showing an impressive ability to keep on winning even if they have yet to put in a single really impressive performance this season.  Who’d bet against them continuing the trend, and earning Rob Penney a 12-month contract extension – which seems pretty paltry given the job he has done (see above – top of the league, top of HEC pool withoiut really playing well yet – with limited resources).

That leaves Connacht, who should give the Zebras (another) seeing-to. The big game for them is next week when they must travel to Sarries, essentially with a view to keeping the score down.  Don’t say it too loudly, but Sarries have attempted to broaden their game this season and have racked up a bucketload of tries, and Connacht are just the sort of team they will seek to fillet with a blend of sledgehammer power and incisive running.  Their backline – containing the likes of Alex Goode and Chris Ashton – always looked like it could be a threat if let off the leash a little bit, and now it’s starting to happen.  Connacht will presumably have the patronising words of Stephen Jones ringing in their ears as they take the pitch.  Another performance in the vein of the Toulouse game will be required to emerge with a respectable scoreline.

Lots done. More to do

At this two-thirds stage of the last-ever HEC (in this form anyway), the Irish provinces are all in a reasonable position, and Ulster are best placed of the lot. That’s not to say they’ll all be feeling happy about the opening four games, and Leinster in particular will be pretty pissed off they lost at home to the No-Pressure-On-Them edition of the Northampton Saints; and that insipid performance in front of both fans in Murrayfield will likely cost Munster a home quarter-final, but with three wins both are expected to qualify.

Leinster would have looked at their trips to the Hairsprays and Franklin’s Gardens as odds-against trips – and the results and performances were excellent. The flip side has been the rubbish home form, which is a particular worry ahead of the Ospreys game. The last-minute concession of their bonus point against the Saints might come back to haunt them, particularly if it ends up consigning them to a trip to Toulon or Clermont.

In Munster, they will be hyping up talking about JJ Hanrahan’s try for a while to come, but it got them out of jail after a pretty average performance and a systemic defensive meltdown at the worst possible moment. But a win is a win, and it feels even better when it’s in France. But because of the aforementioned defeat to Embra, they’ll need to win in Kingsholm to even have a chance of a home quarter. It’s been done four times in the Premiership this season, by such luminaries as Sale Sharks, Wasps and Exeter, and once by Embra, so Munster shouldn’t travel in fear, and really should be able to navigate that trip. A low seeding and a trip to France might beckon, but that’s the stuff tears are made of, so how bad.

Up north, Ulster will bask in the glow of their 100% record over Christmas. Problem is, with Leicester’s win in Montpellier, they’ll probably need a bonus point in Welford Road (while losing by less than six) to get through, something that proved beyond them two seasons ago. If they don’t win the pool, they should still qualify, but by our reckoning they’ll be playing for home advantage in the next round. Incentive to give it a lash for sure, and they are much better than they were two years ago.  However cloudy the future of the competition, Leicester will play every game they face at full throttle, and their last-minute victory was tribute to their never say die attitude. They are a worthy adversary, and have much to admire. Even though they haven’t won the pot in 11 years, they have been eliminated by the eventual winners five times, the runners-up once, and big-game bottlers Clermont twice – if Ulster can win this pool, they are contenders for the trophy.

As for the province we get most-accused of being biased against, Connacht can retire from the HEC happy that they have their memory to dine out on for years to come. They’ve had quite a few oh-so-nears away from home in their few seasons in the elite competition, and its well-deserved. Some of the minnows add nothing (looking at you Zebroni), but Connacht have been consistently competitive and the Sportsground has translated well to games with big teams, and Saracens.

Predictions for qualifier rankings:

  1. Toulouse
  2. Ulster
  3. Toulon
  4. Clermont
  5. Munster
  6. Leinster
  7. Leicester
  8. Globo Gym

Now that that’s all gone, we have to talk about Leinster. A most disappointing and worrying performance – the last-minute withdrawal of Sean O’Brien left them without any effective carriers and the Saints managed to tackle Leinster backwards almost every time. When the Saints ambushed Ulster in similar fashion last year, they produced the physical template that Globo Gym used to administer the knockout blow in the quarters. Leinster better hope that they have O’Brien and Cian Healy fit for any trip to France in the knockouts, or it’s curtains.

Still, they nearly won it right at the end. When Kahn Fotuali’i sacrificed a penalty advantage to drop a goal with over a minute left on the clock, we smelled a mistake. All the Saints needed to do was go through a few more phases, then take the full minute to kick a penalty and the game was won. The decision to nick the drop gave Leinster the final chance they needed and they were incredibly close to punishing Fotuali’i for it. Small things add up at the highest level, and the likes of Leicester, Leinster, Munster, Toulon, Toulouse would never allow their opponents another chance in such situations.

Bonanza!

If indeed the Heineken Cup is to be recast as a tin-pot version next season, we’ll miss weekends like this one.  An absolute bonanza for Irish rugby, topped off by the most remarkable result in Connacht’s history.  Leinster were entitled to think the Monday headlines would be given over to them, but they were upstaged.  It goes down as arguably the biggest shock in Heineken Cup history.  While Toulouse are not the force of yore, they’re still pretty good.  They beat Saracens away in the previous round and are second in the Top Quatorze.  Connacht had been in the midst of a horrendous streak and are below Zebre in the Pro12 log.  Where the hell did they pull this from?  Connacht-watchers might have expected them to use the away game as a mission in damage control, before dialling up the intensity in the Sportsground.  But Connacht cleary had other ideas.  They’ve taken everyone, perhaps even themselves, by surprise.

To put some context in that result, it’s only about two generations of Irish rugby since celebrity Munster fan Mick Galwey stood under the posts in Toulouse imploring the lads to keep it to 50. Back then, at the dawn of professionalism (and the HEC), Munster were about as good as it got in Ireland, and they couldn’t keep the score below 50. Now, Ireland’s weakest province (please don’t be offended) can go there and win. That is incredible.

The question – as always – is whether they can back this up.  Asking them to beat Toulouse a second time in a row might be a bit much to ask, but it should at least give them the belief to get some wins in the Pro12 and work their way off the basement place in the league.  Their star turn appears to be scrum half Kieran Marmion, their busy scrum-half who was unlucky to miss out on a debut cap this autumn.  He could come into consideration in the Six Nations but those who watched Leinster on saturday will have noted that Eoin Reddan looked like a sort of rugby genius.

Which brings us to Leinster, who were superb.  It’s worth rewinding to October, when we put up a couple of posts expressing concerns over the direction in which Matt O’Connor was bringing Leinster.  Thankfully, we left room for an optimistic scenario:

“The optimistic scenario is that Leinster are still operating with a patched-up backline and once O’Driscoll and Fitzgerald – who looked very threatening when he came on – are fully restored to the team that there will be more emphasis on attack and putting the ball through the hands.  In the meantime, O’Connor has tightened up a defence that was more than a little creaky last season, and that focus will begin to shift to attacking and Leinster’s fabled gainline-passing.  One hopes Ian Madigan will be trusted to do some of the playmaking – after all, he’s awfully good at it when given the chance.”

Well, thank heavens for small mercies, because it looks to have come to pass.  The rugby played by Leinster against Northampton looked suspiciously like Schmidt-ball, with an emphasis on gainline passing, varied attacking patterns with inside-ball and wide passing mixed to devastating effect, as well as an almost feral approach to clear-out with those arriving at the ruck driving beyond the ball.  Throw in exemplary ball presentation and it was a near-perfect performance.  It all combined to serve up Eoin Reddan with silver-platter-ball, with which the flaws in his game vanish into the ether and he appears world class.  His speed of thought and deed were too much for the bewildered Saints. Mind you, we’ve said before that these Saints are no-one’s barometer of manliness – this is the third successive occasion at the Gardens where an Irish province has left with 5 points.

What’s remarkable is how in the space of a couple of weeks all half-empty glasses are suddenly brimming over.  After the Australia game all was miserable in the heart of Irish rugby.  Now, options appear everywhere.  Rhys Ruddock looks like yet another – another! – option in the backrow, playing as if to the manor born.  Rob Kearney is looking like his old self.  Gordon D’arcy has gone from a bust to a boom.  Luke Fitzgerald is back!  Keith Earls is back among the tries.  Some excitable fans were even calling for Sean Cronin to start ahead of Rory Best.

Up in Ulster, Paddy Jackson looks like a proper outhalf – his development since his harrowing Ireland experiences in March has been excellent, and he now takes on more of the game management from Ruan Pienaar. And, speaking of Ulster, when a 7-try romp over a team that has given Ulster problems in the past becomes a footnote, something must be going right, even allowing for the relegation of Ulster in Irish rugby minds (should we call this the “Cave Factor” going forward?).

PS. While getting annoyed about celebrity Globo Gym fan Stephen Jones is about as futile as it gets, we must take issue with his latest.  We won’t even go into the laughably uncharitable tone of his Northampton-Leinster write up, but his assertion that refereeing outside England is ‘terrifyingly bad’, with reference to Nigel Owens, who refereed this game, was so far wide of the mark as to be abhorrent.  For a start, the example he cited was just plain wrong.  He claimed Owens didn’t see the miles-forward pass by Cronin, but Owens could clearly be heard saying ‘we’ll go back and check it’ as Luke Fitzgerald was jogging over the line.  And as if it needs saying, Nigel Owens is widely, and rightly, regarded as the best official in world rugby (not best-looking mind, there are some things Steve Walsh just won’t lose).  Still, though, perhaps it’s reassuring: with Jones no longer able to claim a natural superiority for the English clubs over the Irish provinces, he has now turned trained his wobbly aim on the Pro12 referees.  Deary me, what an unedifying sight it is.

Y’know, Rugby Matches and That

What’s all this, then?  Actual rugby matches between provincial and club sides throughout Ireland, Scotland, Wales, England, Italy and France?  Sounds like an intriguing prospect.  This lark might even catch on.  Northampton vs. Leinster?  Perpignan vs. Munster?!  This sounds bloody fantastic.  We want MORE of this sort of thing.  Certainly not less of it anyway.  Or some diluted version involving the Portuguese team (‘Except you Julian Bardy, the only player anyone has heard of, you have to play for Clermont’) making up the numbers.

It’ll be a merciful relief to get back to the reliably invigorating business of the Heineken Cup.  The preliminary rounds seem so long ago at this stage, with the November series and the endless wranglings in the interim, it almost requires an effort to remember exactly how it’s all poised.  Did Munster really lose in Edinburgh?  Good Lord, they did!  And what a result from Ulster to sack Montpellier on their own turf.  Leinster find themselves two-from-two and Connacht have a win over Zebre and ran Saracens to the last play in their first game, prompting a hilarious tweet from Stephen Jones trying to convince everyone – including himself, presumably – that it was a comfortable win for Globo Gym against the ‘non-elite’ Connacht.  How quaint all that posturing seems now.

All of which brings us to the glorious double headers, often the highpoint of the calendar.  Is there any fresh way to say they often decide the outcome of the pool?  Probably not, but who cares – they do.  You can cough up a cheap loss in the first two rounds, but only if you atone for it here.  The good people at ERC, or Sky, or wherever these things are decided by tend to orchestrate the schedule so the two big boys in each pool cross paths in the back-to-backs, so winning both legs isn’t always a requirement, and simply coming out on top in match points is often enough.

That’s certainly the case with Leinster, who have had a curious season so far.  Having won in Ospreys, they made heavy weather of Castres at home but the pool qualifier will come from this match-up in any case.  A bonus point on the road will be enough to keep Leinster in the hunt, providing they can win at home.  Northampton can be odd, though.  Last year they surrendered meekly at home to Ulster, apparently sealing their fate, before improbably turning the tables in Ravenhill of all places.  Ben Foden’s injured though, and he provides their creative spark.  Over to you, Courtney Lawes, to inflict the damage.

Munster have a different set of parameters.  They arguably need to win both games, having lost to Edinburgh in a disastrous opening match.  They have the home leg first in what has come to be known as – thanks Gerry – the Sunday mass slot.  It’s often lamented, but we have few memories of them playing particularly badly in it and they should have the goods to beat Perpignan in Thomond Park with a bit to spare.  The acid test will be trying to go down to the Aime Geral and getting a win.  It’s a daunting stadium, but Perpignan themselves don’t intimidate too many teams these days; they currently lie 9th in the Top 14 and Munster are certainly capable of winning there.  Last time they went there nobody fancied them at all, but they were rampant.  Tomas O’Leary was on fire and Donnacha Ryan came off the bench to announce his talent on the big stage. Perpignan have a monstrous pack and a wonderfully creative outhalf, but, of all the French teams in the HEC, they are probably the one you would want.

Ulster have the easier part of their assignment.  They’re in a great position after beating Montpellier, and should be looking for nine points as a minimum return against a Treviso side that hasn’t really picked up where they left off last season. The natty Italians have a habit of making life awkward for Ulster, but got spanked in Ravers earlier this year – Ulster will be pretty confident of snagging 5 points on Saturday, and should have the momentum to grind out a win away. Those 9 points should more or less wrap up a home quarter-final … assuming no flakes like last season’s home loss to the Saints.

And don’t forget Connacht, who play Toulouse, who aren’t quite the – yaswnsville – ‘aristocrats of Europe’ these days, although they did win away to Saracens, which has seen them installed as favourites to win their group.  Connacht will struggle in the away tie, but will certainly be targeting a rousing performance at the Sportsground.  It’ll be Toulouse’s second visit to the dog track, but the hope that the less than salubrious surroundings will put the Toulousains off their stride proved hopelessly wide of the mark on their first, and Connact – enduring a pretty hopeless season and rock bottom of the Pro12 as it stands – will be in need of some sort of miracle to come out with a win.