End of an Era

No, not the Fez era (that’s coming soon) or the end of the pooh-pooh-ing of concussion (also coming soon), but the Humph era at Ulster. Its been 22 years since Humph was not at Ulster (presumably discounting his time at Oxford and Lahn Oirish) and its reasonable to say no man currently in Irish rugby is as readily identified with his province – Eric Elwood would have been, Axel might if he stays around Munster and Leo Cullen is Leinster’s contender.

Humphreys retired from playing in 2008 and immediately moved upstairs to an operational role, progressing to DoR in 2009 – he was responsible for both the bringing in and the letting go of Brian McLaughlin, the influx of gilded Saffers and the hiring of Mark Anscombe. In terms of on-pitch results, the progression (admittedly from a very low base) has been steady and clear:

  • 2008/09: HEC: 3rd in pool behind Quins, Stade (2 wins). Magners: 8th (out of 10)
  • 2009/10: HEC: 2nd in pool behind Stade (4 wins). Magners: 8th (out of 10)
  • 2010/11: HEC: 2nd in pool behind Biarritz (5 wins including first in England), QF defeat away to Northampton. Magners: 3rd (out of 12), SF defeat away to Leinster
  • 2011/12: HEC: 2nd in pool behind Clermont ahead of Leicester (4 wins), QF win away to Munster, SF win vs Embra, F defeat to Leinster. Pro12: 6th
  • 2012/13: HEC: 1st in pool ahead of Northampton, Castres (5 wins including first in France), QF defeat away to Globo Gym. Pro12: 1st, SF home win vs Scarlets, F defeat to Leinster in RDS
  • 2013/14: HEC: 1st in pool ahead of Leicester, Montpellier (6 wins), QF defeat at home to Sarries. Pro12: 4th, SF defeat away to Leinster

So in Europe, first wins on English and French soil, four successive knockout appearances, two pool wins, first home knockout game, and first final – lots of successes. Domestically, going from also-rans to consistent contenders – not as spectacular a progression, but progress all the same. Still, no cigar – Ulster’s aching for silverware has yet to be sated, and that, ultimately, will be seen as a failure – though not all Humph’s, but the buck does stop somewhere, and since he gets lots of the credit for the upturn, he needs to take some responsibility for not getting to where he wanted to be.

Its clear as well that the current stage of Ulster’s progress is ending – big names like John Afoa and Johann Muller have moved on, and they have not been replaced in a like-for-like fashion. Ulster have built around them,bedded in an outstanding generation of youngsters (Henderson, Jackson, Marshall, Gilroy, Olding) and blended them well with developing players who have been around for all of Humph’s tenure (Henry, Cave, Besty, Court, Tuohy), returning Ulstermen (Bowe, Wilson) and some high-class project players.

The next stage will involve the passing on of the baton from foreigners to Ulstermen (and lets not get all Farmer Farrelly on this – Ulster’s home-grown players are at least as influential and have been for a while) while staying competitive. Its not going to be easy, particularly given the state of the front five and the size of the chequebooks being waved around in France. If Humph had ideas of leaving at some point, now might be a good time relative to on-pitch matters.

There is also the not inconsiderable issue of the future of the head coach – the Sword of Damocles (© Gerry) appears to be hanging over Anscombe’s head. Ulster currently run a bicameral coaching system with Humph as DoR and Anscombe taking training – would this structure be a disincentive to a big name head coach (if indeed, such an animal would be tempted by Ulster in the first place)? Perhaps Humph’s role would have been diminshed in the near future anyway.

Off-field, Ulster have developed into a commercial juggernaut. Ravenhill is no more, and is instead the Kingspan Stadium (at least they have sold the naming rights to a long-standing supporter of the team), with some extra pounds in the coffers and an increased capacity by 50%, with new, modern facilities. Happily, the atmosphere has not suffered – many observers (even by English ones used to the razor-sharp atmosphere at Allianz Park and Irish ones used to the tears at Thomond) rated the atmosphere for the Saracens game as the best of the season just past. Season ticket sales have ballooned, and their marketing has improved from helping fans to “save time” (actually) to becoming a partner in the Ulster/Kingspan experience – its up to the standard of Leinster and Munster – finally.

Again, Humph presided over these changes, if less directly for the off-field matters – and Ulster are now where they want to be. Seems he received an offer that turned his head from Glaws and he decided he had taken Ulster as far as he could, and the time was right to move on. He certainly wasn’t pushed – that is for sure. As it stands, Ulster and Irish rugby owes a great debt of gratitude to one of its great sons, and we can only hope he’ll be back – he’d certainly make a good fist of David Nucifora’s role, if it turns into what its envisioned to.

Ulster are in an immeasurably better place than when he went upstairs – the new era starts now and the bedrock is firm. As George Harrison said, sunrise doesn’t last all morning. Best of luck, Humph.

EEERRCCCCC Draw 2014/15

If you were confused by the seeding vagaries of the draw for the EERRRRCCCCCC, you weren’t the only ones – we are Maths nerds by profession and all we could understand was that our brains were frying. Luckily, in stepped Murray Kinsella to explain it all in short, easy-to-understand words for us – thanks Murray!

When the ultra-complex draw happened, it produced tougher pools than the legacy tournament, which, as well as having 4 more teams, wasn’t as “elite”. While we had major issues with the money/power grab from the crowing money men of the Boshiership, the case for cutting teams from the HEC structure was pretty strong – and it has turned out that way, looking at the draw, with Pools 1 and 3 (with Munster and Ulster) utterly mouth-watering and the rest largely hard to call.

One pool contains three of last years semi-finalists and two collectively have six of the quarter-finalists – although this says as much about the difficulty of losing a good ranking under the HEC system than it does about the EEEEEEERCCC one. Here’s the full listing:

  1. Globo Gym, Munster, ASM Mental Stength, Sale Sharks
  2. Leinster, Castres, Quins, Wasps
  3. Toulon, Leicester Tigers, Ulster, Hard-Scrummaging Scarlets
  4. Glasgow, Montpellier, Oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooohh Bath, Boring Bosh Merchants Toulouse
  5. Northampton, Racing Metro, Ospreys, Treviso

Starting, as ever, with hardy traditionalists Munster, while its a tough draw, their fans are secretly quite pleased – nothing gets the pishun stirring as much as a visit of the arrogant Englishman (© Gerry) or a flaky bunch of Frenchmen. Munster will be confident of 3 home wins, and will target Sale for their away win. Given the fact that 3 out of 5 runners-up will qualify, and looking at how competitive the pools are, 4 wins and 3 bonus points (19 points) might be enough to qualify, and they’ll be aiming for that. Initially anyway.

In pool 2, Leinster have got a bit of a bye – Castres are familiar foes and rarely put 100% effort into Europe. Quins have experience but are a bit short on top quality and Wasps have neither to be frank. Leinster will be thinking of a home quarter-final – for all their attacking struggles this year, their pack and defence retains its excellent rating.

Ulster have paid the price for merely finishing fourth, drawing Toulon and Leicester. While they have made a habit of beating the Tigers in recent times, Leicester surely won’t have as many injuries and Ulster have yet to adequately replace their departing props. Toulon will be really tough, but any team with European pretensions (as Ulster have) should be beating the Scarlets twice. So, then, a simliar target to Munster – 19 points and second place. Third time to edge out the Tigers in four years?

Elsewhere, Northampton and RM92 will be happy with their draw and be confident of reaching the knockouts, and if Glasgae can re-produce their Pro12 form they might be in with a sniff, and that’s a mighty open pool. So much can depend on the timing of the fixtures and how the teams are going at the time, but we feel Leinster will definitely qualify, Munster are slight odds-against, and Ulster third favourites in their pool. Either way, the games look spectacular – worth subscribing to BT Sport though? 🙂

Stuart Hogg to Ulster?

The news that Stuart Hogg will play no part in the biggest game in the Glasgae’s franchise’s (ugh) history is surprising, to say the least – he’s one of the few bona fide world class players in Scotland, and should be a key man for the team.  Dress this weekend’s match up any way you like, but Leinster, for all their attacking lumpen-ness, have an excellent pack and a brilliant defensive system – and they keep winning. If Glasgae are to win, they’ll need everything going, yet they have elected to pick Peter Murchie at 15. Amid the fog and intrigue, one thing is obvious – Stuart Hogg has burned every bridge going at Glasgow.

When asked about it, Bob Kearney said:

“I don’t know him too well, great player, seems like a good lad, but there is something going on there behind the scenes. There is a reason for it and I suppose you lads will find out sooner or later.”

Cryptic, and not exactly satisfactory. Tell us more, Bob!  All kinds of rumours are flying around and that doesn’t help – it would be easy to play a dead bat, but he chose not to – what does it all mean? And not knowing him too well? They toured together for the Lions and play the same position (caveated by Hogg’s outhalf cameos in Oz) – you’d think they would know each other well enough – is there distancing there?  Are we trying to read too much into things?  What the hell is going on?!

Ulster are now being linked with a move for Hogg, and, on the field anyway, it would be a reasonable fit for them. The culture shock will be non-existent; Glasgow, Belfast, it’s the same thing, right? And sure, Ulster are stacked outside, but you can never have too many world-class players, and he would be just the type of player that might help them unlock organised defensive systems – their key weakness. Their red zone strike rate was woeful in key games this year, and Hogg might have made the difference versus Globo Gym and Leinster. There’s no substitute for all out gas and Hogg has that matched with no little skill.  He’s a potentially explosive addition.

Hogg’s arrival might put the noses of Craig Gilroy and Darren Cave out of joint a little, but maybe that can be filed under ‘good problems to have’ rather than something to be overly concerned about.  In the era of 20% injury rates, chances are they won’t miss out on too much top grade rugby in any case.  Although it may be worth asking if wee Hoggy can scrum down at tighthead, because that’s where Ulster’s biggest worries are liekly to occur next season.

Question really is this: given Humph’s experience of Ulster’s player factional implosion after 2006, does he want to bring in a guy, who at 21 has managed to alienate his coaching staff so much they would rather not pick him than maximise their chances of winning in the Oar Dee Esh? And for the IRFU, do they really want to pay to train one of their direct opponents’ best players? There’s no real precedent for this sort of signing, unless you count Simon Danielli, which of course we don’t.  Something we aren’t clear on is whether Hogg an NIQ or not – by definition, yes, but he’s more like a Kolpak player in cricket, and Ulster might reasonably think it shouldn’t impact their ability to sign “real” NIQs i.e. those from the Southern Hemisphere.  Even if he does count, because of his calibre, it’s hardly a waste of an NIQ spot.

Hogg is a gem of a player who Ulster would be very fortunate to fall into their hands, but that isn’t the really pertinent question, which relates to his availability and omission from the Warriors side.  Presumably The Humph is on the case.

Time To Look In The Mirror

If Ulster fans left the RDS depressed amid the repetition of the same traits that have hamstrung them for much of Mark Anscombe’s reign – an inability to score tries against an organized defence – it would have been made worse by the relief felt by Leinster fans given the balance of the play. That said, Leinster fans will be feeling a little empty on Sunday morning in spite of their win – their sheer ineptitude in the first half was stunning and their mistakes were off the chart. If anything, it was worse than the Embra game.

The first 33 minutes of the game felt like a culmination of a season of Leinster having Joe Schmidt trained out of them – the error count was horrendous, sky high, the likes of Eoin Reddan couldn’t pass the pill, accuracy levels were on the floor. It was the worst Leinster have looked in years. And yet – despite totally controlling the game, Ulster were only 3-0 up, and never really looked likely to break the Leinster defence down to score the try that would surely have led to a comfortable win.

The stabilisation point, ironically, came from yet more poor Leinster play – this time a rank leading elbow from Dorce, which deservedly had him cooling his heels on the sideline (there was quite a bit of niggle going on – much of it involving famously nice chap Andy Trimble for some reason). Suddenly, the psychology of the game switched – the pressure on Leinster to find their A game dissapated and the pressure switched to the Ulstermen to score a few points while he was in the bin. Nearly a quarter of that time was wasted on one scrum, and Ulster didn’t cross before half time. Leinster went in at half-time feeling a bit spritely at being ‘only’ 6-0 down despite playing like drains.

In the second half, Ulster continued to own the football, but Leinster began upping the urgency levels – rucks were contested a little more vigourously and the aggressive defensive line was beginning to force Ulster errors. The turning point came when you-know-who trying to takle NWJMB’s knees – not advisable under the best of circumstances, and especially not when the man-child was in this form. Drico sustained perhaps the last concussion of many in his career and was replaced by Ian Madigan. Shortly after, Wee PJ left the field and was replaced by James McKinney. The net effect was for Leinster to have someone ready to take the game by the scruff of the neck and Ulster went down a notch in the playmaking – and defensive – stakes.  This was the Ian Madigan that has been missing in action all season.  Could it be that with seemingly nothing to lose he was able to just relax and do his thing.  It’s rare in rugby for the man of the match to go to a reserve, but Madigan was indeed the game’s most influential player.

Aided and abetted by some serious beef off the bench, Leinster finally found their feet, and ten minutes of pressure culminated in Madser’s game-winning try. Even in Optimism Central BBC NI, the score was greeted, with nine minutes to go, as the “game-winning try”. The hole Madigan sauntered through was left there by Jared Payne, who, if this was an audition for some-bloke-called-Brian’s shirt, wouldn’t get a call-back. Bamm-Bamm will feel he is the best inside centre in the team and Darren Cave is easily a better fit outside him right now – if Payne really is an outside centre, he has yet to show it.

To say Ulster let Leinster out of jail would be an understatement – they had them in solitary confinement but accidently left the key lying around and Leinster strolled out of the prison whistling a tune. Anscombe will feel a tad uncomfortable this morning, and he should be – Ulster’s failing 12 months ago was an inability to make big plays in big games (Saints, Leinster) and that is still the case.

There have been a number of games this year in which Ulster have had countless visits to the opposition 22, and been made to pay for not converting enough of them into points.  The freak result at home to Glasgow earlier this season was one, and two more were the home games against Leicester and Montpellier in the Heineken Cup, which they won, but which nearly proved costly in terms of bonus points.  As a team they have the set pieces and forward oomph to dominate matches, but their struggles to score from close range have become the equivalent of getting the yips on the putting green.  Anscombe described them as lacking compusure in key situations, and that seems about right – but that’s as much on him as it is on the players. It feels like they force the issue – the missed touch with several penalties trying to eke out every last metre, when there really wasn’t any need to.

Leinster’s Schmidt Generation would have been much more clinical, and likely have been 15 points up and out of sight by half-time in a similar situation. Lofty standards, sure, but that’s what Humph is aspiring towards with Ulster – and rightly so. The rumour mill already abounds that his coach will be replaced by Neil Doak after next season – this may seem harsh, but unless Ulster’s failing in knockout games is rectified, it’s quite easy to argue that Anscombe has taken Ulster as far as he can and a new approach is needed.

As for Leinster, they’ll be glad to still be alive. It must not be forgotten that they provided the majority of the Six Nations team and a handul of their players were on the Lions tour too, so they’re most likely exhausted.  But it still looks as if Matt O’Connor is more Gary Ella than Joe Schmidt, and if anything performances seem to be getting worse by the week.  And yet he may just finish his first season with silverware.  I can think of a couple of provincial coaches who’d love to be in that position.

They will face a Glasgae side who won a great old-fashioned arm wrestle in a seething Scottish stadium (no, really) against Munster on Friday night. Leinster will see the final as a free play, but they’ll need to be a damn sight better than Saturday to deny the Warriors the win they felt they deserved in last years semi at the Oar Dee Esh. After 33 minutes, Leinster’s season seemed in tatters with performances reaching a nadir. Somehow, and again, Ulster let them off the hook – but it’s hard to know who has the bigger long-term worry.

Interesting Irish Interprovincial Game Alert

Spicy – check! Niggle – getting there! Chips on shoulder – well, it’s Ulster, so check! Arrogant latte-sipping Wez graduates – well, it’s Leinster, so check! It must be what is fast becoming the testiest derby in Ireland, winner takes all, part quatre. Unless you work for RTE, you’ll be sure Munster-Leinster has become dull and tiresome, and Ulster-Leinster is becoming pretty compelling.

Two years ago, Ulster went into the HEC final feeling pretty good about themselves, but got Schmidt-ed by a ruthless and powerful Leinster team, perhaps at the peak of their powers. Last year, Ulster gave up home advantage as Ravers was still a building site, and were pipped just short in a cracking game, and two weeks ago, Leinster ruined Johann Muller’s going away party, but all sides got a little heated at times.

Ulster feel they owe Leinster by this stage – the Blue Meanies just won’t forfeit their “top province” (well, top team, as there is only one top province, right Gerry?) ranking, and Ulster are tired of being the ones nipping at the heels of them but going home licking their wounds. They are going to be mighty wound up this time, and one can sense the kind of focus and determination they flagged before going to Welford Road earlier in the season.  Just don’t get too wound up there chaps, or you’ll end up tip-tackling some poor fellow shoulder-first into the ground!  Hopefully the lessons have been learned and focus will be the keyword.  As Brian O’Driscoll was captured saying in the Reaching for Glory docco : ‘This game will be about controlled passion.  Do you possess it?’

As for Leinster, they look, to be frank, there for the taking. Against Embra last week, they were pretty uninspiring, and in the aforementioned Bambi-killing episode in Ravers, they could have lost to 14 men. Their back play has become increasingly amaemic as the season has progressed, and seeing Johnny Sexton guide his Racing Metro team into the Top14 semis won’t have improved moods in D4.

It’s a contest between good old-fashioned Northern flinty determination to knock Leinster off their fucking perch (to coin a phrase) and a limousine steadily running out of gas but putting along just quickly enough. While it’s hard to see a Brian O’Driscoll career end with a lackadaisical home defeat – his genius has dragged many worse teams over the finish line – this feels like a major banana skin for Leinster.  Lose, and Matt O’Connor gets the backlash.  O’Connor’s brand of rubbishy looking rugby has been unpopular since his arrival, but so long as the team keeps winning in the Pro12 and delivers the trophy, there’s only so much mud that can be flung at him.  But lose at home in the semi-finals and the natives will go from restless to irate.

If Ulster can name Besty and Ruan Pienaar in their team, and build on the momentum perversely achieved in defeat to Leinster and an improbable win over Munster, they look to have the focus and hunger to finally get the Leinster monkey off their backs. Today’s news that Glasgae will be forfeiting home advantage should they face Ulster in the final is an extra fillip – what better way to have another go at christening the new Ravers than with a trophy? And won’t somebody think of poor old Tom Court, whose suspension ends after the semi-final.  A win for Ulster, and he gets the chance for his last act in an Ulster shirt not to be a spear tackle.  After last season’s narrow miss, they’ll feel it’s what they deserve and probably feel they’re due a bit of good fortune – and, as at Welford Road, they might just be ready to scale that peak.

What do they have to do to win?  Not shoot themselves in the foot for starters.  Leinster haven’t offered a huge amount in attack this season and Ulster are a good defending team, so it’s hard to see Leinster racking up multiple scores.  Leinster’s lineout is misfiring and Ulster will surely plan to disrupt it.  Yes, the scrum is a concern, and Leinster dominated this element of the game in Ravenhill.  But they didn’t dominate it quite as much as expected.  The first scrum of the day was minced, but after that Ulster just about held up their end.  If they can survive the scrummaging they have the more cohesive looking attack, the better backline and – if Pienaar starts – the halfbacks to control the match.

Summer Summer Summer Time

Are these songs on the playlist in Thomond Park these days?

Are they about to throw the towel in rather fight tooth and nail for silverware? After losing to an exceptionally inexperienced Ulster time, it’s time to be worried. Next week they travelt to Glasgow, the form team in the Pro12 and a team hungry for the cup having repeatedly gone close in recent seasons, for a very tough semi-final.  Time to shape up.

In 2012, with a head coach leaving at the end of the season, Munster threw their hat at the final rounds of the Pro12, culminating in an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Ospreys.  Sounds familiar?  After their exit at the hands of Toulon, we mentioned that they would do well to quickly turn their attention to the prefectly respectable piece of silverware that was available.  The signs so far are mixed.  They put 50 points on Edinburgh, which served to underline that they mean business, but their performance against a junior Ulster team was so poor as to be bizarre.  Even great players like Conor Murray were reduced to throwing aimless passes to nobody.  In front of a barely half-full Thomond Park they didn’t seem very interested.  Sure, there wasn’t much at stake, but Munster would have been better off building momentum for a very difficult semi-final next weekend than throwing in a clanger in front of (a few of) their own supporters.

RTE were at pains to argue that Munster would definitely respond to their dire performance next time out, and that no team can turn an abject performance into a good one a week later than Munster, but they were missing the point.  The Pro12, in its various guises, is not a competition that really switches Munster on – it’s not in their DNA to give it as much respect as the Heineken Cup, and at times they seem to pride themselves on their ability to play as abominably as possible, to make their HEC exploits look even better.  If they were playing, say, Clermont Auvergne next week we wouldn’t doubt they’d respond, but Glasgow?  Hard to see it.

The only time since 2009 that Munster really went full-tilt at the Pro12 was in 2011, but under unusual circumstances.  Munster were out of Europe in the pool stages, so they had time to get over the emotional hump and re-focus.  Back then, Munster ditched the remnants of several aged Liginds and found a spark to their season when they introduced Conor Murray and Felix Jones to the team. They won that year, in memorable style against Leinster  – but it wasn’t typical.

Three years on, the newbies have read the script: the Pro12 is for vain losers like the Hairsprays and Leinster .  Real men only care about The Big One, or friendlies against touring test sides. Now there’s something worth giving your all for!  For Munster, the idea of going to a ground like Scotstoun and considering it worthy of their greatest efforts, is insulting their standing in the game. Glasgow?  What have they ever done in Europe?  This game is Glasgow’s season, but Munster’s ended two weeks ago. They are a better team than Glasgow, but they don’t need this game to prove anything to anyone.

Nor did they need to beat Ulster’s seconds to prove anything – ironically, the sight of some rivals for the green shirts might have got more out of them, but Paul O’Connell and Conor Murray – best in their positions in Europe – do not look at Lewis Stevenson and Michael Heaney and find their hearts pumping. They were sloppy and disinterested, and as we forewarned in our post-Toulon review, if they perform with the same lack of vigour against Glasgow, the sense of a good season in which many gains have been made will start to dissipate.  There’s a trophy on the line guys, look alive!

Will it hurt their chances in green? Maybe, after all, Joe Schmidt is a stickler for detail and Leinster prided themselves on giving every game 100% when he was in charge, but more likely, he’ll understand- the good work the fringe Ireland players like Simon Zebo and Dave Kilcoyne put in against Toulon is far more relevant to international rugby than a workout against the Ulster Ravens at the tail end of the season. This game told us precisely nothing about Ulster’s chances in the Oar Dee Esh, but it told us everything about Munster’s in Glasgow – they’ll lose to the hungrier side.

Great Vengeance and Furious Anger

The new Ravers’ formal opening on Friday night was an occasion to remember – a pantheon of Ulster greats and Paddy Wallace (joke) presented to the crowd, rugby through the medium of dance by an odd troop who we thought were cheerleaders, Peter Corrie leading the crowd in a rendition of Stand Danny Up For The Ulstermen Boy, and the stadium paying homage to one of its modern greats – Johann Muller, the captain who led this team from bottom-feeders to European powerhouse in his time here.

The game itself was sizzling – a raucous atmosphere which, at times, approached Thomond-Park-on-a-Saturday-night-facing-the-bleating-English levels of intensity (sacrilege, we know, Gerry, we know who the better province is), a great game and yet more red card controversy involving Ulster. Oh, and they lost (to Leinster, again), but qualified for the knock-outs.

Munster-Leinster has long since jumped the shark – when the bitter rivalry got superimposed on the green shirt, it ceased to be fun, and, although the buildup to games congratulates itself in “best rivalry in the world” terms, Ireland really needs something else to take the spotlight off it. Ulster-Munster can result in some crankiness, but doesn’t quite fit the bill as Ulster don’t seem to buy into the Munster-as-Celtic-Gods ethos, and Munster prefer to focus their ire on a more deserving foe – smartarsed city slickers Leinster. Thankfully, the Ulster-Leinster rivalry is beginning to get back to what it once was in the past, and it’s really beginning to irk Ulster that they can’t seem to beat the Blue Meanies when it matters.

When Paddy Jackson said after the game the game that he was pissed off that Ulster keep losing to Leinster, you sensed he spoke for the group – Leinster have broken their hearts for the last two seasons, and it’s getting annoying for the Northerners. It makes Ulster a mighty dangerous semi-final opponent for Leinster.

For vast tracts of Saturday night’s game – 50 minutes we think – Leinster were a man up, yet they huffed and puffed and looked far from convincing. The set piece was solid and the maul strong but lateral shuttling across the backline was again a feature – the only feature, in fact – of their attacking play. Their try was crafted out of virtually nothing – seemingly innocuous turnover ball turned into a try by you-know-who – but apart from that, Dave Kearney’s slip in the corner when trying to pick up a pass that could have been better (sound familiar) was as close as they came to scoring a try. Ian Madigan had a bit of a stinker in open play, and his chip into Wee PJ’s breadbasket wasn’t something he’ll enjoy seeing again.

Luke Pearce, Rabo debutant, refereed the game well, and it wasn’t an easy one – he got the big calls pretty much right:

  • Tom Court (red): like Pearce said to Court and Muller, he was left with little choice – Court lifted Toner above the horizontal and drove him down. A terrible end to his last appearance at Ravers, but Court can have few complaints
  • Nuck Wulliams (no card): the ref was lenient here – Williams got a bit caught up in the crowd’s post-Court frenzy and swung a dig at Rhys Ruddock. It was bird-brained and deserved a yellow, and probably would have got one if Ulster weren’t already down a man – Muller seemed relieved it was just a penalty
  • Bob (yellow): PJ had scooped up Madge’s gift-wrapped chip and was sauntering in when Bob, eschewing the tackle-the-little-guy-into-touch-low approach, tried to behead him. Jackson mostly ducked under it, and dotted the ball down anyway. You sensed if first on the scene was an angry forward rather than Tommy Bowe that it could have turned into a schemozzle, but it defused rather quickly. Bob took his yellow and acknowledged PJ on the way past. Eddie thought it was a red on TV, but it wasn’t really. There was talk of it being a penalty try, but since he scored (and the ref asked the TMO to rule first on the try being scored) that was out – and it wasn’t a penalty from the restart as the offence was commited before the score.
  • Rhys Ruddock (yellow): Jackson was again the victim here, taken out in the air by a combination of Ruddock and Sideshow Zane. Ruddock was all over the place, and looked like he had no idea how to contest the kick, but in the end it looked like Kirchner was more culpable.  It was all a bit of a mess, with Kirchner seeming to shove Ruddock into the contact area.  Someone had to go, and Ruddock got the short straw. It was adjudged yellow as PJ landed on his side. Hmmmmmm.  It appears that the crucial detail in a number of recent decisions is which body part the player lands on.  Jackson didn’t land on his neck or shoulders, so a yellow card was sufficient.  There’s a huge random element when a player is touched in the air – more so than with a spear tackle where the guilty player has more ‘control’ of things, so it’s a tricky area to navigate through.

All of which left Ulster with a nice sense of grievance to take home with them. With Ulster now guaranteed fourth place, and Leinster needing only a bonus point against hapless Embra at home to guarantee first, it’s odds-on they’ll be meeting again the week after next. It’s a pretty dangerous situation for Leinster to be in – they might be top of the log, but they haven’t entirely convinced this season. Ulster will be going down looking to strike down upon Leinster with great vengeance and furious anger, and they will have a few players back, potentially including Ruan Pienaar.

This spicy rivalry might have another twist this season yet.

Muller’s Last Stand

With Munster’s defeat to Toulon meaning no Irish team’s in the Heineken Cup final, the fizz is threatening to go out of the Irish rugby season. With that in mind, Ulster facing Leinster head-on tonight in the Pro12 couldn’t be better timed. For the third season in a row, these two Irish behemoths play each other in May with plenty at stake – we’d lots of great stuff written about how this was must-win for Ulster, but then those wasteful Ospreys threw in a careless defeat to Zebre that pretty much means Ulster only need a single point from their last two games to make the semi-finals.  Gah!  Nonetheless, they’ll be looking for the win with a view to maybe passing out Munster and getting some much needed momentum for the semi-finals.  Coming into the business end on the back of a run of consecutive defeats would be far from an ideal.

The Leinster v Munster derby that came to define Irish rugby over the last decade tends to swallow all the oxygen, but with Ulster now dining at the same table as the two southern provinces, there’s no reason why that should continue. Indeed, the gap between the three provinces is probably as tight as it’s ever been, with all three strong but none outstanding. Leinster have come off a bit from a peak of two years ago, Munster have made big gains this season, while Ulster have been consistently strong for a while now.

For Ulster their mentality all week will have been win-or-almost-bust, but now they can relax a bit.  For Leinster, a losing bonus point will be tolerable, but a win will virtually assure them of the valuable top spot going into the knockouts. The game will have added poignancy for the Ravenhill faithful, as it’s Tom Court and Johann Muller’s last match at the ground. The South African has captained the side almost since his arrival and made a huge impression in his time here; a top-drawer import who offered massive value to the team. Court is the least valued player in Irish rugby – we suspect it will be a case of we didn’t know what we had until he went.

I the sting has been taken out of the match a little with Ospreys losing, the game should still be a treat with fascinating match-ups all over the paddock. Egg’s half-empty worldview has him looking concernedly as the front rows. No Rory Best or John Afoa for Ulster; instead Rob Herring and rookie prop Andrew Warwick go up against an all-international Leinster unit. Warwick is up against one of the world’s premier looseheads in Cian Healy, so it doesn’t get any tougher. Iain Henderson is selected ahead of Dan Tuohy, and he and Muller face-off against Leinster’s Devin Toner and Mike McCarthy. Toner has played an awful lot of rugby this season, much of it of the first order, but he’s perhaps showing signs of fatigue. Can he get back his Six Nations energy levels for this monstrous game?

Ferris is once again injured, so Ulster’s backrow lines up with Wilson at 6, Henry at 7 and Nuck Wulliams at 8. Good players all, but Williams hasn’t quite had the impact he did last season, and for all the skittle-smashing runs against rubbish opposition, he still doesn’t convince against more organised teams.

Leinster go with Ruddock, Jennings and Heaslip. Jennings excelled in the final against Ulster this year, and has often been effective at neutralising Henry’s breakdown shenanigans. No doubt he’s charged with that as his primary task tonight. Heaslip had one of those ‘Tonight, I’m going to do everything’ performances last week against Treviso, and has contributed yet another season of consistently good rugby. In the modern game where injuries are the norm, and considering the role he plays for the team, his durability borders on the freakish. Ruddock is now firmly established as first-choice 6, while Kevin McLaughlin probably needs a break, and to come back refreshed.

Both sides are missing their best scrum half, and they’ll feel it. Boss and Reddan have been neck-and-neck in the past, but not this year, where Reddan has been easily the better of the two. Ruan Pienaar is a big miss for Ulster, and Paul Marshall has played badly this season. A zippy, potentially game-changing impact substitute only a couple of seasons ago, he looks to be playing in treacle of late.

The media will be happy to paint the match as Jackson v Madigan. They may even forget there are 28 other players on the pitch. Nonetheless, it’ll be fascinating. Both are vying for the role of back-up to Sexton at test level, and for Ian Madigan, it’s been a frustrating season in which he hasn’t brought his best form. Indeed, he’s become one of the most talked about players in the comment section below. This would be an opportune moment to deliver a big performance, but then we’ve been saying that all season and he’s never really got motoring.

Centre has a similarly headline-friendly look to it, as the two Giant Dwarves of Leinster pair up against the two chaps seemingly inked in as their replacements for Ireland; Luke Marshall and Jared Payne. Payne at 13 is a most interesting selection, because with Cave – one of Ulster’s best players this year –on the bench, it’s not out of necessity. An audition for something, maybe?

It’s advantage Ulster on the wings, where Tommy Bowe is Tommy Bowe and Andrew Trimble is one of the year’s major success stories. Zane Kirchner and Dave Kearney have international pedigree but don’t pack quite the same punch. But Leinster make up for it at full back, where they have the mighty Rob Kearney going up against the less experienced Ricky Andrew.

Leinster have done well in Ravenhill down the years, and the ground holds no fears for them, and they look to have the better form coming into the game. Given the names missing from the Ulster team, it’s a tall enough order, but don’t forget that last year they came down to the RDS with Ricky Lutton and Adam Mackin as tightheads and won, with Macklin holding up the Ulster scrum when Leinster were camped on the Ulster line in the game’s last phase. At the risk of going all Munster-meeja on it, Ulster could tap into a well of emotion and deliver a big performance, but Leinster are favourites.

Swapsies

Up in Ravers, the winds of change are in the air – Phase One of Project Humph feels like it is coming to a close. In 2010, Ulster signed Johann Muller, Pedrie Wannenbosh and Ruan Pienaar to take a young and unsuccessful team and drag them up by the collar to be competitive in Europe and ultimately scoop up some silverware. BJ Botha was already there, but he was replaced by (the cheaper) John Afoa a year later when he decided he needed some more passion in his life. The coach was the homegrown Brian McLaughlin but the power behind the throne was the local hero Humph, who had seen the Celtic League-winning team of 2006 spectacularly implode after he retired.

The imposition of some Bok beef has done the trick – Ulster are now a bona fide European power, and the careful husbandry of an excellent generation has yielded internationals NWJMB, Wee PJ, Bamm-Bamm and Craig Gilroy; has given new life to the likes of Besty, Chris Henry and Andrew Trimble and has enticed Tommy Bowe and Roger Wilson to re-join the revolution. McLaughlin was replaced by Mark Anscombe, who in turn appears to have the Sword of Damocles (Thornley101) hanging over him as regards the 2015/16 season, when Neil Doak is available at short odds to be promoted.

However, as of next season, only Pienaar of the big-name foreign brigade will remain – something that will definitely come as a surprise to the casual reader of the Indo, who may be under the impression that Ulster are not only wholly reliant on the foreign contingent, but are the only team to have ever played non-Irish players. Wannenbosh joined Castres the year before last, Muller is going to retire to the ostrich farm (or whatever) and, while acknowledging his unhappiness in Belfast, John Afoa is moving a very small bit closer to New Zealand – Gloucester. Pienaar himself turned down megabucks from Toulon to stay, clearly rating the quality of the Bibles in Belfast more like South Africa than the weather on the Riviera.

Ulster, again not to shock our readers, also have Irish players – and some of them are leaving too: Tom Court is taking his blame lightning rod and pitching up in Samoa London Reading to play with London Samoa Irish Oirish; young guns Niall Annett, Chris Farrell and Adam Macklin are departing for new challenges at Worcester, Grenoble and Rotherham respectively; Paddy McAllister is joining Jeremy Davidson at Aurillac to re-kindle his career; and Average Joes Sean Doyle and James McKinney are off as well.

Ulster’s recruitment to replace these departing names, including no less than four props, has been rather underwhelming, to say the least. Indeed, on hearing the names of the players signed, the most likely reaction for even the most knowledgable of rugby fans is to ask ‘who the heck are these guys?’  Some of the glass-half-full merchants are comvinced that losing a disinterested Afoa and the underrated Court are actually positives, the hope being that Ulster can develop younger (and better) options – but that’s patently not the case. The pack at present looks woefully undermanned and short of beef for challenging on two fronts next year – and we are getting increasingly concerned. Here’s a quick run-through by position:

  • Loose-head prop: replacing Tom Court was never going to be easy – just as he was the easiest man for any Irish coach to ditch, the under-appreciation of our favourite unsung hero continues. Ulster are replacing the 32-times capped Irish international with Ruadhri Murphy from the Brumbies, who has yet to get past the “promising” stage.  Murphy has slipped down the pecking order in Canberra and his previously-stated dream of being shunted all around Eden Park as a Wallaby are now on ice as he looks to fight it out with Callum Black for the Ulster 1 jersey. It’s positive to see a young Irish prop with some potential come on board, but he is 26 now and this will be his 4th club in eight seasons, and he has yet to impress a coaching team enough to make him a key player. It all sounds a bit John Andress-ish.  It seems like Black will start initially.
  • Tight-head prop: continuing in the proud tradition laid down by Botha and Afoa will be .. Dave Ryan, Zebre 3rd choice, and Wiehahn Herbst, who has a rather better dedigree, with 37 Sharks caps in 5 seasons. No South African prop is likely to be anything but technically excellent, but it goes without saying that if he was all that, he’d be going nowhere. Potential for sure, but a serious step down on the previous two incumbents. Because, given Deccie Fitz’ latest health news, it looks like incumbency is where Herbst will be at. He is likely to be Ulster’s new project player when Jared Payne has served his time, so he is here for the medium term. The case of Dave Ryan seems simply a matter of bringing an Irish player home – if Ulster are looking for him to play HEC rugby next year, they’re in trouble.
  • Second row/flank: the retiring captain Muller is, on the face of it, being replaced by a somewhat like-for-like player – Franco van der Merwe of the Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiions Lions. But while Muller had 30 Springbok caps, van der Merwe has one – so it’s a step down, for sure, but it’s a different ask really. Replacing Muller’s first XV contribution will be put on the goals of one Iain Henderson – van der Merwe’s role is to take Henderson’s role as second row first reserve and occasional flanker and make it his own. It’s a pretty decent hire to be fair, for Ulster lack beefy forwards, and this is a pretty good one – he’s basically a bigger version of Robbie Diack
  • Half-back: steeping into James McKinney’s size 10s is the returning iHumph, who flounced out of Ravers after being dropped for the HEC semi-final against Embra (Embra! In the HEC semi-final!! With Michael Bradley as coach!!!) in 2012. Humphreys pitched up in Samoa London Reading for a couple of seasons, and he is a good signing. He’s nearing the twilight of his career, but Ulster need backup for Wee PJ for the international breaks, and Stuart Olding should be allowed to concentrate on centre (more of which anon). Humphreys might defend like a saloon door, but he’s better than McKinney.  Whatever his flaws, there’s some talent there and at Pro12 level he should be a valuable player.

This season, Ulster’s pack has at times looked in need of an injection of depth – the first team is excellent when everyone is there (Court, Best, Afoa, Muller, Tuohy, Fez, Henry, Wilson) but how often does that happen these days?  Fez is always injured and the backups, NWJMB aside, aren’t top class. Diack, Black and Herring have looked game, but Stevenson is a squad man at best, Williams just doesn’t cut it at the highest level, then there is … er … Mike McComish and Neil McComb. The changes they have made don’t change that, and indeed, Sean Doyle has yet to be replaced. The rumour mill is whirring that yet another Shark, this time Keegan Daniel, could be tempted to jump on board, and it’s sorely needed.

The Ulster squad looks pretty unbalanced for next season – light on numbers up front, but stacked behind. Ulster could play a backline of Pienaar, Jackson, Marshall, Cave, Bowe, Trimble and Payne and have the luxury of leaving at least one of Wallace (assuming he’s still knocking around somewhere) , Olding and Gilroy out of the match-day squad altogether. Admittedly, its not Toulon levels of depth, but this is Ireland. The promising youngsters Mike Allen and Ricky Andrew are capable deputies at Pro12 level, but the pack backups struggle to be that sometimes.

One very interesting rumour doing the rounds is Jared Payne to Leinster – Ulster fans have gone all Connacht on this one (“How DARE they steal our players”) but it might be something to consider if a high enough bounty can be extracted. Leinster would look at Payne as an outside centre, as Joe Schmidt is likely to do, given the dishy face of Bob glowering at high balls and the rather gaping hole at 13, post you-know-who retiring.

Payne is currently second choice at Ulster in that shirt, and it’s a position where Ulster have options , unlike in the Oar Dee Esh (or “Tomond” for that matter).   For Payne to take the 13 shirt he needs Gilroy to step into the 15 jersey and shift Cave – neither of which comes close to being warranted on this season’s evidence. We may have mild concerns over Payne’s defensive abilities in that key position, but given the desire of the Irish hierarchy is for him to be an outside centre and the needs of the other provinces, Ulster might not be able to get a higher trade-in for him again – and it might be time to cash in.

If Humph can use those legendary bargaining skills, and get a prop and some depth in the backrow, this might be something worth considering – let’s say Ulster managed to wrangle Jack McGrath and Dom Ryan out of D4, would that be so bad?

There are several factors at work here – a more pro-active Union with the appointment of David Nucifora, a pushy national coach who has political capital to burn, and something we have discussed before – the surfeit of props and backrows in Leinster versus centres in Ulster. Of course, all are contracted, but if everyone wants this to happen, it might just come to pass. If a nuclear-option trade like this is a win-win for both provinces, and a boon to the green shirt, why not?

Plus it would inject some life into the flagging Ulster (and Leinster – see Kirchner, Z.) recruitment process.

Three Becomes One

Gerry was predicting all three Irish provinces were going to progress this weekend, but in a potentially important weekend looking forward to the RCC, it’s moneybags Globo Gym and Toulon who join Munster and Clermont in the semi-finals – the same lineup as last year, and a real credit to Rob Penney to keeping Munster in such august (and far wealthier) company.

If Toulon beat Leinster in an awesome display of power, skill and depth; Saracens were blessed to defeat Ulster on Saturday night, almost letting a 76 minute man advantage slip.

The biggest pity about Jared Payne’s sending off on Saturday night was that it effectively decided what looked like a delicious contest after just four minutes – Saracens’ ineptitude on the game management and place-kicking front allowed Ulster to hang in there, and almost nick it, but it was a nigh-impossible task to win with 14 men for virtually the entire game. Add in injuries for Besty and Pienaar and it’s a minor miracle Ulster were even in search of a drop goal in the closing phases. For that they have to thank an oddly subdued Sarries – Owen Farrell again got the yips when the pressure was on (see Park, Thomond, tearful Saturday night edition, 2012), they seemed content to let Ulster have the ball despite the excellent ball retention on display, and the few times they used the full spaces on offer they scored tries – and the errant boots of their halfbacks.

Billy Vunipola and Schalk Brits were excellent and carried the team, but Farrell and Hodgson offered very little. We won’t talk about Chris Ashton again, but his bird-brained swan dive made Farrell’s first conversion more difficult than it needed to be – it would have been just reward if that proved the difference between winning and losing, but, sadly, the width of a post on Wee PJ’s first penalty determined that one.

Ulster’s remaining 14 men and substitutes were heroic (and arm-wavingly frustrating in one case – no wonder Pienaar remained on the pitch for so long despite an inability to pass the ball) and couldn’t have done much more, but since Payne’s card was the defining moment it is worth dwelling on it for some time. As per usual, the reaction ranged from the moronic (‘Sure Goode was walking around by half-time, clearly wasn’t badly injured, not even a penalty’) to the opportunistic (‘Sure the game had barely started and he didn’t intend Goode to fall on his head, so it’s a penalty and no more’) to the disciplinarian (‘All tackles on English yeoman should be punished by red – why, back in the day these colonials weren’t even allowed to pass a gentleman on the street without a cap-doff’). But it’s worth diving deeper into a few of the more common lines:

  • Both Ulster and Saracens coach and captain agreed it wasn’t a red. Well, Anscombe and Muller would say that wouldn’t they, so let’s leave it there. McCall agreed, but would he have been so magnanimous if Ulster had won? Or if Payne got a yellow and scored the winning try, would he have argued Garces was right? And Borthwick chided the interviewer for not asking if Goode was ok, and more or less said Garces had the right to make that decision.
  • Payne had his eyes on the ball the whole time. This was Muller’s argument to Garces when the incident happened, and it’s undeniable. But does this invalidate any contact? The reality is that Payne made no effort to contest the ball, which is the key point when discussing recklessness – even the lamest attempt to jump would likely have downgraded the dangerous factor in the referee’s eyes. Even if Payne was looking at the ball, he was utterly reckless when it came to the safety of Goode.  His body shape in enetering the contact zone was all wrong, and that was what put Goode at such great risk.
  • The severity of Goode’s injury influenced the decision. We thought this initially, but we aren’t so sure. Sure, the sight of a man being carried off on a stretcher definitely makes the referee feel under more pressure to do something, but think about this scenario. Goode is dazed but sitting up and needed treatment to continue. Garces shows Payne a yellow straight away, then sees the replay on the big screen and summons him back for a red. Far fetched? Not really, it’s exactly what he did to Stuart Hogg in the Six Nations. We’re not saying it would have happened, but it’s definitely a possibility. Garces is a referee who does not shirk these decisions, and he could well have shown a red anyway.  At the very least, it must be accepted that Garces’ decision was based on due consideration, and not a snap-reaction or emotion, because he and the officials took an age over it.
  • There was no intent to injure. There never is, though, is there? He’s not that kind of player, you hear commentators say (except about Dylan Hartley, because he clearly is). But reckless and dangerous play can lead to injuries, and that’s what needs to be stamped out. Player safety needs to be paramount, and outright intention to injure someone (also known as common assault) is rarely the key factor in these decision, nor should it be.  Payne was reckless and dangerous

We saw the same thing after Sam Warburton dumped Vinny Clark on his head in the World Cup – amid the hot air eminating from Gatty and the compliant UK press, Elaine was accused of being “half-French” by Barnesy, and Frankie accused him of ruining the semi-final for the fans. Warbs didn’t intend to paralyse Clerc, nor did he, but his conduct is the type of dangerous play that can leave players in wheelchairs, and for that Rolland sent him off.

The Sky studio were split down the middle, with Quinnell and Greenwood arguing for red and the Irish pair going yellow – and that 50-50 split is about fair. Some referees would show red, some yellow. Garces tends to be strict and he showed red. Even if you think it should have been a yellow card, the red card outcome was definitely in play, and within reason.  We tend to see player safety as the key variable and think, on balance, a red card was just about the right call. When we first saw it, our thoughts were ‘He might just get sent off here’.  Payne will be the most devastated by the turn of events – he effectively cost his team a place in the semi-finals – and one wonders if Ulster were a little too wound up early on. It’s a terrible pity that a team of such potential, full of young Irishmen, won’t get to play for a chance of another final – their display certainly warranted it, and, given a period of transition is on its way with the departure of Court, Afoa and Muller, who knows when they will have as good an opportunity.

When you are climbing a mountain of the type Ulster needed to on Saturday everything must go right, and if Ulster put themselves in a position to win the game, they will regret four missed kicks. When we saw Pienaar, broken wing and all, lining up the first kick at goal, we were screaming at the TV – it was pretty obvious he wasn’ t lasting the 80, so why not give PJ the duties from the start? Pienaar didn’t kick well, and Jackson was left with a sighter in the second half – which hit the post. Them is the margins. Not much went right for Ulster on the night, and Payne’s stupidity was only one part of it. Some day my friends .. some day.

PS. Worry not, Munster fans, we’ll be talking about your team’s awesomeness next.  And sorry, Leinster fans, but we may have to have a chat about events on the south coast of France later in the week, too.