HEC Draw: It’s Bath Time

Whiff of Cordite warned in its preview that getting an Italian team was not the golden ticket it’s made out to be for the Irish teams, as it was guaranteed to be accompanied by a big French and English side.  So it has  proved for Ulster, who in spite of drawing Aironi, have a hell of a job to repeat last year’s feats.  Here’s a quick immediate reaction to the groups.
Pool 1: Munster, Northampton, Scarlets, Castres
Not ideal for Munster, who are defending 11 ranking points this year and simply must get out of their group after last year’s debacle, or there will be blood on the streets.  Northampton are a team with genuine pedigree and no little hunger after this year’s tournament, and qulification will most likely come down to two almighty scraps between the big guns.  Both going through is not inconceivable, but they will need to win home and away against Castres and Scarlets to make it happen.
Pool 2: Cardiff, London Irish, Edinburgh, Racing Metro
The group of dearth.  Fourth seeds Racing have been handed a huge opportunity, and if they want it enough they should qualify.  In truth, this group is there for the taking if any of the four can get their act together and pinch a win or two on the road.
Pool 3: Leinster, Ooooooooooooohhh Bath, Glasgow, Montpellier
Leinster could hardly have handpicked a more benign group, though if Montpellier are interested they could be a banana skin; better to face them in Round 5 or 6.  Glasgow offer a meek threat, while Leinster and their fans will have happy memories of the Rec.  Whiff of Cordite fell in love with Bath on a recent visit and cannot wait to return…

Pool 4: Leicester, Clermont, Ulster, Aironi

A bit of a stinker for Ulster, drawing two of the most physically intimidating sides in the competition.  Four wins is not beyond them, and two teams will probably go through, but it is hard to see them getting enough crucial bonus points to edge out one of Leicester and Clermont.
Pool 5: Biarritz, Ospreys, Saracens, Treviso
A great chance for Sarries here to build on their Premiership win and make a statement in Europe.  Ospreys will struggle next year with so many names leaving in the summer, while Biarritz rarely impress in spite of a strong qualification record.
Pool 6: Toulouse, Harlequins, Gloucester, Connacht
Not an ideal draw for Connacht, who will find the step-up from the Amlin a tall order.  They could easily emerge winless and not disgrace themselves, but will target the home games against Gloucester and Quins.  If nothing else, it will be fun to see Toulouse’s great rugby aristocrats roll out at the dog-track, hopefully on a friday night when it’s blowing a gale.

The HEC Draw: It’s Complicated

The HEC draw take place on 7th June, and Ye Gods, it’s fraught with complications. As many a kickyball commentator would put it, you’d need a Maths degree to work out the permutations. In all honesty, it wouldn’t hurt.

The pools look as follows, with a Cordite Rating determining the attractiveness, or lack thereof, of each side:

Pool 1 Cordite Rating
Leinster Stench
Toulouse Stench
Munster Whiff
Cardiff Blues Odourless
Biarritz Olympique Slight Whiff
Leicester Tigers Stench

Pool 2
Northampton Saints Stench
ASM Clermont Auvergne Stench
Ospreys Odourless
Bath Rugby Slight Whiff
Harlequins Whiff
London Irish Slight Whiff
Pool 3
Ulster Rugby Whiff
Saracens Whiff
Gloucester Rugby Slight Whiff
Glasgow Warriors Odourless
Scarlets Slight Whiff
Edinburgh Odourless
Pool 4
Connacht Rugby Odourless
Castres Olympique Slight Whiff
Benetton Treviso Slight Whiff
Montpellier Whiff
Racing Métro 92 Whiff
Aironi Rugby Odourless

The rules are thus: there moust be one English team and one French team in each group, and one group will include two English teams (one of which will be Gloucester, as the lowest ranked English side).  None of the other nations’ sides can be paired together.  And because there is only one French team in Pool 2 and none in Pool 3, it means that Leinster and Munster are much more likely to be assigned a French team from the fourth pot.  Put it this way: the only chance they have of getting an Italian team is by drawing Clermont and getting Sarries into the bargain- not an ideal scenario however you care to look at it.

Now, look at Ulster’s perspective.  They can’t be drawn with Leinster or Munster, so they stand a great chance of getting either Toulouse or Biarritz as their top seeds, and failing this, they can also get Clermont from Pool 2.  If this happens they can’t get another French team from Pot 4, and they can’t get Connacht either, so the only teams left are Italian teams.  So, Ulster getting a group like last year is in fact very likely indeed.

As for Biarritz, who apparently fix the draw in their favour every year, well, sadly for conspiracy theorists, they do have a very good chance of picking up an Italian team simply by dint of being French and in Pool 1, both of which are of course self-sustaining (unless that part of the Basque country secedes to Spain).  They can’t get any of their fellow countrymen from Pool 4, so they simply must be drawn with either Connacht, Treviso or Aironi.

So, looking at possible draws the Irish sides can get, we have…

The Good…

Leinster / Munster: London Irish – Glasgow – Castres
Ulster: Biarritz – Bath – Aironi (sound familiar?)
Connacht: Biarritz – London Irish – Glasgow

The Bad…

Leinster / Munster: Northampton – Gloucester – Racing Metro
Ulster: Toulouse- Northampton – Treviso
Connacht: Toulouse- Northampton – Gloucester

… and the Away-trip Friendly

Leinster / Munster: Bath – Edinburgh – Racing Metro
Ulster: Toulouse – Bath – Treviso
Connacht: Toulouse- Bath – Edinburgh

Probably best not to think about it too much and just hope you get to visit at least one lovely city, and try to avoid Northampton, Clermont and Saracens if you can.

HEC Team of the Season

Everyone else is doing it, so why can’t we? Here’s our Heineken Cup XV of the season.

If Leinster dominate the selections, then it’s probably no surprise. Toulouse lacked a little of their usual pizazz, Perpignan ran out of juice in the semi-final and Munster weren’t their usual selves. Leinster overcame the toughest group with a game to spare, securing a home QF in the process, beat two heavyweights in the knockouts, before winning in memorable style in the final against a hard-nosed Northampton team.

15 Isa Nacewa (Leinster) – The key to Leinster’s counter-attacking game. Not the quickest full back but is a visionary player in how he exploits the space in front of him. Try against Leicester was unforgettable.
Honourable mention: Ben Foden (Northampton).

14 Shane Horgan (Leinster) – No longer in demand at international level, but Shaggy had his best season in years for Leinster. Ability at restarts particularly impressive.
Honourable mention: Morgan Stoddart (Scarlets), Andrew Trimble (Ulster).
Dishonourable mention: Matt “4 tries against Aironi” Banahan (Oooooooooohhh Bath) – what were Planet Rugby thinking?

13 Brian O’Driscoll (Leinster) – Few things left to say about the great one at this stage, but his ability to come up with the goods when his team needs it are unparalleled. Witness match-winning try against Toulouse.
Honourable mention: Manu Tuilagi (Leicester)

12 Clement Poitrenaud (Toulouse) – Dismissed by Matty Williams as a poor selection for Toulouse’s visit to the palindrome (and of course by Lievremont for RWC11), he proved the doubters wrong. Can be flakey, but has magic in his hands and feet.
Honourable mention: Maxime Mermoz (Perpignan), Ooooooooooohhh James Downey (Northampton)

11. Alesana Tuilagi (Leicester) – Oooooooooooooh, that’s a whole lot of Tuilagi. Rescued Leicester when they alsmost lost to Treviso in the opening round, and should have scored when he flattened BOD in Lansdowne Road.
Honourable mention: Vincent Clerc (Toulouse)

10. Jonny Sexton (Leinster) – Haul of five tries and phenomenal kicking percentage was one thing; that performance in the final was another. Looks a player set for the world stage.
Honourable mention: Ian Humphries (Ulster), Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon)

9. Ruan Pienaar (Ulster) – A classy footballer who brought a winning mentality to Ulster. Distinctly un-South African in that he can pass and run as well as boot the ball into the air.
Honourable mention: Lee Dickson (Northampton), Dmitri Yachvili (Biarritz)

1. Soane Tonga’uiha (Northampton) – Raw power helped the Northampton scrum become one of the most feared in the competition. His first half in the final was simply astonishing.
Honourable mention: Perry Freshwater (Perpignan)

2. Richardt Strauss (Leinster) – His throwing and scrummaging were good enough to get in, but his open field play secured the position – how many times was he right on the shoulder of the ball carrier?
Honourable mention: William Servat (Toulouse), Dylan Hartley (Northampton)

3. Mike Ross (Leinster) – Europe’s premier tight-head right now, his intelligence and tactical nous put him a class apart. Hard to believe that he (or Strauss) couldn’t get a game last year.
Honourable mention: Nicolas Mas (Perpignan), Brian Mujati (Northampton)

4. Courtney Lawes (Northampton) – Phenomenally athletic young lock who packs a serious punch. His patrolling of the ruck against Ulster got Northampton out of a sticky patch.
Honourable mention: Leo Cullen (Leinster)

5. Nathan Hines (Leinster) – Absolutely everywhere this seaseon. Line-outs, rucking, carrying ball, and scoring in the final. Knits the Leinster team together.
Honourable mention: Jerome Thion (Toulouse)

6. Sean O’Brien (Leinster) – Man of the match 3 times in the group stages and his barrelling ball carrying ensured Leinster had go-forward ball all-season. The 40 metre run in the final with defenders hanging off him will live long in the memory.
Honourable mention: Tom Wood (Northampton)

7. Thierry Dusautoir (Toulouse) – Classy operator who appears to make a tackle every 2 minutes. Toulouse’s leader, he chipped in with 4 tries.
Honourable mention: Phil Dowson (Northampton)

8. Jamie Heaslip (Leinster) – Gets the nod for his latter performances after a patchy and injury-affected group stage.The stand out player in the knock-out stages.
Honourable mention: Joe van Niekerk (Toulon), Roger Wilson (Northampton)

And finally, a nod to our top 3 players in the Amlin Vase, or whatever its called. He might be regarded by some as an honest journeyman, but the performances of Chris Robshaw in the knock-out stages, especially at Thomond Park, were of the highest quality. We also doff our caps to Nick Evans and Sergio Parisse – class is permanent in both cases.

Le jenue de BOD

Well, we had a marvellous post full of pre-match jousting between the Leinsterman and the Ulsterman that make up Whiff of Cordite, but technical gremlins (i.e. Blogger breaking down for 24 hours) wouldn’t allow us to put it up.

Never mind, in the end Leinster ran out comfortable 18-3 winners, content to play out the second half with most of the bench emptied. In truth Ulster never really fired a shot, and Leinster were far more threatening thoughout, with Jamie Heaslip and Fergus McFadden outstanding.

Whether the use of the bench was by design or not we’re not quite sure, and none of Mike Ross, Richardt Strauss or Brian O’Driscoll looked particularly comfortable leaving the pitch. Joe Schmidt appeared most concerned about BOD’s knee, but expects the rest to be fine, though an anxious wait lies in store.

Leinster in the HEC without BOD is an unthinkably awful scenario, and here at Whiff of Cordite our lady friends have kindly offered to rub BOD’s knee all week if required.

Spence’s timing spot on

Our hero and inspiration Gerry Thornley was in fine form on Newsnight’s Off The Ball on Wednesday night. Like so many of us, it seems he is a big fan of Ulster’s exciting new centre Nevin Spence. Indeed, Spence has had a breakthrough season this year, and his performances have seen him pencilled onto our World Cup Bolter list.

But what Gerry was most impressed with was Spence’s timing. No, not in running onto the ball, but of his birth. ‘He’s timed his career perfectly’, Gerry told us.

So, we here at Whiff of Cordite would like to give a shout-out to Mr and Mrs Spence for having the canny foresight to give birth to the next great Irish centre just as Drico and Dorce’s careers are coming to an end. Kudos!

Don’t walk away Ruan-nee

Rumours are circulating that Ruan Pienaar, Ulster’s favourite of their many South African sons, will be heading back home with a view to playing out-half in the World Cup (and presumably the Tri-Nations as well). It seems there’s a bit of a crisis at 10 for the Bokke, as management have finally realised that being an international playmaker requires more than simply kicking the ball really high into the air, which is bad news for Morne Steyn.

If the rumours are true, we’ll be pretty upset here at Cordite Towers. Pienaar’s canny game management and slick distribution have helped spark a young Ulster backline, and his last-minute match-winning penalties have propelled his team to the Magners League playoffs. Indeed, he was honoured with the ML Player of the Year Award this week.

But we can see why chief headbanger Pieter de Villiers would have his beady eye on Pienaar, because none of the alternatives are really braai-ing our biltong. We would think about throwing in Patrick Lambie, a young player of huge quality, but it is maybe a year too early, and PdV is not known for his enterprising selections. Peter Grant is having huge difficulty sparking the Stormers stellar backline (de Villiers-Fourie-Habana) into action, and the less said about the Naas Olivier’s of this world the better.

Don’t break our hearts Ruan, and give us another year.