All posts in category Munster

The Munsters

A thought struck us during the recent HEC action – in their times of greatest need this season, the second half of the Embra game, the must-win home fixture with Saracens and the away-day bosh-up in Lahn, Munster have reverted to the type of rugby the province is most comfortable with – 10 man boot and bollock with rolling mauls, marauding backrow forwards smashing everything that moves and kicking for territory.

Thing is, Rob Penney came on board loudly promising to introduce a more expansive style of play, but it looks like he has tempered those plans.  After the Edinburgh game he talked about how the team being ‘un the put’ where they are having to learn a new way of playing, but when they eventually come out of ‘the put’ they will be so much the better for it.  But if they keep reverting to the old ways, will they ever get out of ‘the put’?

It’s worth thinking back to how the early promise of the Ludd McGahan era (recall the 43-9 beasting of a star-studded Ospreys side) crumbled into a mish-mash of styles as the coach struggled to get his ideas across to a team used to something different. Before you say, ah but McGahan was crap, note how the Wallaby side he is now defence coach for won 3 (vs England, Wales and Italy) and drew 1 (vs BNZ) of their 5 game Northern Hemisphere tour, while conceding just 5 tries despite a lorry-load of injuries – McGahan was a capable coach, but the message didn’t get across.

So is the Penney Revolution struggling to get air? Its obviously way too early to reach a definitive judgment, but there are some issues that he already needs to address:

The Forwards

While the current edition of the Munster pack has its plus points, it’s nothing like the pack of 2008 – only BJ Botha (for John Hayes) and Donnacha Ryan (for Stakhanov) would make the grade. For all their old school endeavour in the Thomond Park Saracens game, the McGahan problem of discipline came back to haunt them, and they essentially only won because Owen Farrell left his kicking boots at the IRB POTY ceremony. 

In the Vicarage Road game, the sight of Munster rumbling into contact and losing metres to a powerful bunch of forwards when they were a man up must have had Rob Penney tearing his hair out – they spent 4 minutes boshing and going backwards which ended in a wobbly drop goal attempt, and it was just the tactic Saracens would have welcomed. Why they didn’t try and use their extra numbers a bit more productively was mystifying.

The traditional Munster game is rather ill-suited to the current squad of forwards they have. And even if Penney gets his guys doing what he wants, do Munster have the ball carriers in the pack – they are fairly lightweight and only Cawlin and JC Stander would strike you as consistent getting-over-the-gainline guys.

The Backs

The Munster outside backs are most exciting, and using them to chase bombs is not really maximising resources – Earls, Zebo, Jones, Howlett and O’Dea look dynamite with ball in hand. It’s playing to your strengths to get them on the ball as much as possible instead of the comfortable, mucky repeated one-out rumbles into contact. At home to Saracens, who themselves have a high class backline, the most dangerous outside back by far looked like Keith Earls – but they never got him on the ball.

The Ireland-style aimless shuttling across the backline against Embra was easily repelled, with nary a dangerous angle or intelligent switch pass in sight. Simon Zebo must have looked at the type of opportunities the Ulster backs got in Northampton (Andrew Trimble running from blindside wing into first receiver and making a try for instance) and wondered would he ever get that chance in a big Thomond Park game.

Its hard to see it as a profitable long-term strategy to have your most dangerous players guarding rucks instead of passing and moving.

The Leader

Ah yes. The elephant in the room. Paul O’Connell is a massive leader, and one of the best captains Munster have ever had – he was perfect as the pack leader in the HEC years, and accepted nothing less than excellence in pursuit of success. Problem is, he actually isn’t that suited to the modern game – his ball-carrying is poor, and he does far too much of it. The Mole wrote about the sight of O’Connell calling one-out ruck ball to himself for Ireland, charging 70cm into contact, and forcing the likes of Fez and Jamie Heaslip to clear out the ruck – defences will take that all day long.

Does O’Connell have the desire to evolve his playing style at this stage of his career? His second row partner of so many red and green occasions is making a decent shift at it, despite not being in the same league as a player – but O’Connell has never been a follower. If he cannot adapt, and Penney prefers other players to execute his gameplan, he’s going to have a problem.

The Outhalf

Barnesy has talked about the flyhalf being the key cog in the machine, around which the spokes of wheel turn – his vision reflected how he played the game – head-up, looking for breaks and creating space – and was the reason why England preferred the more prosaic approach of Rob Andrew. That was the type of game they wanted to play. The illustration shows the problem for Rob Penney rather neatly. For his entire career, the Munster approach has been territorial, based on Ronan O’Gara putting the pack where they want to go. Penney wants to move on, but O’Gara simply does not have the skillset to execute a high tempo, handling based game any more.

Much as some might wish it not to be so, Ronan O’Gara is long past his best, and his on-field decision-making has deteriorated markedly in the last 12 months – he is nothing like the domineering figure of the past decade. Admittedly, his performance in Saracens was excellent out of hand, but in the context of a narrow gameplan and heavily unambitious opponents.

The reality is Penney is going to have to play someone else if he is to realise his vision – maybe Ian Keatley, maybe someone else altogether. The management of this issue, as we have said before, will largely define the success, or otherwise, of this season for Penney and Munster.

Culture

It’s clear how the senior players want to do it, and its getting results – they scored 4 tries in 40 mins against (an admittedly inept) Embra, and beat high-flying English/Saffer bosh overlords Saracens doing it their way. And after the success of the old approach against Saracens (home win and losing bonus point secured) – it’s going to be ever more difficult for Penney to further his case to the already sceptical dressing room bigwaigs now they can point to Munster’s 5 points against the English heavyweights. The mathematics of a defeat then 0 tries scored in 1.5 games of New Munster and 4 tries, then a win, then a losing bonus point in 2.5 games of Old Munster might look compelling, but there is a danger the wrong lesson will be learned. Munster might be well-positioned for a quarter-final slot, but what benefit would that be in the long term if they reverted to a gameplan that doesn’t suit their younger players (and future stars) to get there?

Its fine to say you need to earn the right to go wide, but that shouldn’t lead to the conclusion that you must win the set-piece first and only. Sure, its important, but manufacturing mismatches through intelligent running angles and offloading in the tackle to force more defenders into a ruck than attackers, thus creating numbers out wide, is far more relevant. If Munster go down to Toulon or Clermont in a HEC quarter-final with the mindset that they must win up-front before thinking about going wide, they will get mashed into the turf and badly beaten to boot. Leinster have showed in the last 2 seasons that a solid (if unspectacular) scrum and a good defensive lineout is more than enough to play an accurate and ambitious game – maybe the most important difference their is that was something the senior Leinster players not only were comfortable with, but welcomed.

On another point, the importance of the muck and bullets Shannon-type AIL style can be overdone at times – its a playing style from a different era which was succesful, but its highly unsuited to the current crop. And a perceived attachment by Munster fans to a certain style of play is nonsense – recall the reception Craig Gilroy got when playing Fiji – this is a chap who ruined Munster’s season last year, but his exciting and daring brand of rugby went straight to the hearts of the Thomond Park crowd. They swooned over him, and the cheer for him the next week in the Aviva was as warm and loud as the one for any player.

The fans who have got into Munster rugby in the professional era were fine with Craig Gilroy when they saw him play – they aren’t inherently wedded to any style – just a desire to win! Clearly Munster are in a rebuild phase, but the idea that they must play in a particular way, or its not really Munster is just untrue – their challenge is to play in a way which maximises their playing resources. The atmosphere in Thomond Park on a Saturday night will be equally as well-harnessed playing ambitious rugby as it is playing a fenzied forwards-based game.

Marrying a tough, if lightweight, looking pack to exciting and creative backs looks the only way forward for Munster if they want to win again in European rugby – the best teams, like Clermont, Leinster, Toulon, Leicester and Ulster, have mean-looking packs who can take you on up front, plus backs to finish it off – scoring in 3s isn’t going to win you the big pots.

One thing is for sure, unless Munster can find an identity they can move forward with, they aren’t going to move forward – the McGahan era petered out into embarrassments against Toulon and Ulster without a united front. Rob Penney has some young talent to work with, but a reversion to a game which works in the short term to the detriment of the long term is not a recipe for sustained success – maybe now is the time to make some painful decisions, which may be unpopular with senior players (and the media) and live up to the hard-ass reputation he has come over with.

by whiffofcordite on December 19, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Conservatism, Generation Ligind, HEC, Munster, No seriously we have a gameplan, Rob Penney in the pit, Youthful Promise

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 19, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/19/the-munsters/

It’s Just A Little Airborne, It’s Still Good, It’s Still Good!

Munster and Leinster aren’t out of the Heineken Cup just yet, but oh me oh my, they’re cutting their chances pretty fine after losing what were, on the face of it, must-win matches this weekend.  Munster sit on 11 points in their pool, and Leinster are on 10.  We wrote previously how the two could be on some sort of collision course, potentially taking one or another out of the tournament.  Well, they sure are now, but it ain’t no two horse race.  It’s time to get out the calculators.

Oh, and it probably makes sense to add a health warning at this point: looking too far ahead in the Heineken Cup can be a fruitless exercise, the most likely outcome of which is making yourself look foolish.

So who’s liable to be scrapping over the two precious runner up spots?  Here’s a guide which should hopefully give Leinster and Munster fans an idea who they should be rooting for over the next two rounds.

Pool 1: Munster are third with 11 points, but are on course for second, as Racing have played hapless Embra twice.  Saracens will probably go to Racing and do the business, although Racing have kept their interest in the pool alive after back-to-back wins over Edinburgh, so it’s by no means guaranteed.  If Sarries slip up, the pool will become a three horse race, with Racing very much in the mix.  The group would probably be settled on bonus points, and it would change the dynamic of their visit to Thomond Park.  Munster have Edinburgh away before they welcome Racing in Week Six.  It’s time to bring out Rob Penney’s attacking ideas in their full glory, because they’ll be looking for 5 points from each.  21 would almost certainly be enough to qualify.

Forecast: Saracens top, Munster second on 21 points.

Pool 2: Leicester and Toulouse meet in round six, and the winner will top the group.  Results this weekend might prove to be helpful. Ospreys’ defeat of Toulouse means it’s hard to see a runner-up breaking 20 points.  Leicester are on 14 and Toulouse are on 13, but they play each other in the final round.  Unless Leicester beat Ospreys with a bonus point, but then contrive to lose to Toulouse by less that seven, or claim an unlikely draw, the runner-up here should be below the 20-point watermark.

Forecast: Leicester top the group, Toulouse second on 19 points

Pool 3: Biarritz are second on 9 points, and still have to face Harlequins.  Quins are runaway winners here and should have eyes on securing the top seeding.  Biarritz can achieve a maximum of 19 points, but that would require they beat Quins with a try-scoring bonus.

Forecast: Harlequins through, with six wins.  Biarritz second with 15 points.

Pool 4: Ulster losing to Northampton this weekend could have significant knock-on effects, and not in a good way.  Had they lost, Northampton were buried, but they’ve been handed a lifeline.  Ulster are still in control here, despite the hiccup and should still come out on top, though the final game in Castres could be nervy.  Northampton have 10 points and with Castres at home and Glasgow away, they, like Munster, will be eyeing up a 10 point haul, that would put them on 20 points.

Forecast: Ulster through, Northampton second, on 19 points, with only one of the two bonus points.

Pool 5: Clermont are home and hosed here.  They’ll beat Exeter at home and crush Scarlets, putting them on six from six.  Leinster have it all to do.  They haven’t had their try-scoring form with them this season, but should be able to manufacture a four-try win over Scarlets.  That would leave them travelling to a doughty Exeter looking for a four-try win to try and get to the magical 20 point mark.  Memories of Bath in 2006 spring to mind, but they’ll need to look considerably sharper than they have done to to do it.  Exeter are no pushovers and could still have the Amlin to play for.

Forecast: Clermont top.  Leinster to get two wins, but only one bonus point: 19 points.

Pool 6: for Leinster fans, if they do get to 20 points, it all looks to hinge on this pool.  Toulon are on 18 points and Montpellier are on 13.  The other two teams in the group are hopeless: Sale and Cardiff.  Toulon will beat Cardiff at home and top the group.  Montpellier should beat Sale, getting themselves to 17 at least.  Montpellier face Toulon at home in the final week.  Toulon should be already qualified when the game takes place.  Montpellier’s need will surely be greater.  A win and they’d launch themselves to 21 points at least.  Leinster fans must hope that Toulon turn up and win in Montpellier, or that Sale manage to recover from their 62-0 beting to somehow beat Montpellier.  Neither is especially likely.

Forecast: Toulon to top the group, but lose in Montpellier.  Montpellier to finish second with 21 points.

Overall forecast: Montpellier and Munster through as best runners-up.

The above of course, would leave our quarter final rankings looking something like:

  1. Harlequins
  2. Clermont
  3. Toulon
  4. Ulster
  5. Saracens
  6. Leicester
  7. Munster/Montpellier
  8. Munster/Montpellier

So the good news for Munster is we think they will not only sneak through, but avoid having to go to Toulon for another mashing. Clermont is equally as intimidating a venue of course, but it’s not the site of Munster’s most significant mental scarring. The Stoop would be a nice venue for a knock-out game – blood capsules all round!

by whiffofcordite on December 18, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 18, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/18/its-just-a-little-airborne-its-still-good-its-still-good/

Siege Mentality

Down the years, many a successful coach has driven on his team by creating a siege mentality within the camp.  No less a man than the great Sir Alex Ferguson, before becoming a darling of the media himself, used what he perceived to be a London bias in the English press to motivate his team.  No one likes us, we don’t care, he would say, and the team bought into his vision.

The Irish love a siege mentality and traditionally only ever reach a peak when they’re written off.  Remember beating Australia in Auckland?  Remember the 1991 World Cup?  Great performances from a team dismissed in advance.  At provincial level, the siege mentality has been a huge factor in how Irish rugby lines have been formed.  And it looks like it’s found a new home (incidentally, Connacht permanently have a siege mentality, so let’s leave them out for the moment).

Historically, the chip on the shoulder was always seen as a Munster thing.  It’s what drove them on to being the most successful team of the early professional era.  Munster rugby long held a view that Leinster and Ulster, with their wealthier private-schools-based catchment area and powerful boardroom presence, cocked a snoop at them and national teams reflected a selection bias against them.  Back in the days of selection commitees there was certainly  a sense that the school tie was as important as a player’s ability.  When the Heineken Cup launched and Irish rugby built itself around provincial franchises, Munster used the chip on its collective shoulder to brilliant effect.  They had always dominated the club game, and with Limerick and Cork now aligned in pursuit of a common goal they took the opportunity to show the Nordies and the D4-heads just how good they could be when given a proper chance.  The rest we know – they dominated Europe and national selection for the guts of a decade.

But a siege mentality can only last so long.  Munster became media darlings on a near mythic scale.  Anyone following our twitter feed will know that we don’t entirely buy into the extraordinary levels of mythology that get perpetrated at the very mention of a late Saturday afternoon kick-off in Thomond Park, but there are plenty who do.  Munster, the pride of Irish warriors, stitching the tears of Ginger McLoughlin into the team shirt, was born.  They became the embodiment of everyting great about Irish sport, a brilliant and heroic team.  When everyone loves you, it’s hard to claim that nobody likes you and you don’t care.

So the siege mentality was picked up by Leinster, who were seen as the team opposite to Munster in every way.  In a wonderful article, Matt Williams recently described a speech made in the dressing room by Denis Hickie after Leinster beat Clermont Auvergne in the Stade Marcel Michelin in 2003.  They had little travelling support, no more than a handful of family members who joined the players in the dressing room.  Hickie said that Leinster had no ‘Red Army’ equivalent following them and no support in the media but that none of that mattered.  Everyone important to Leinster Rugby was in that dressing room and that was enough; they had to do it for each other.  When we read it, it made us think about something we’d never considered before: that it’s great saying ‘we’re going to win for the fans who are the best in the world’, but having an army of passionate support is in fact a luxury that plenty of teams don’t have.  Some team simply have to win for themselves.

The culmination was in 2009, when Michael Cheika drove his team to new levels of feral hunger by exposing them to the full scale of the media hubbub, which was at that point in time in full Munster Lovin’ flow.  Niall Kiely’s infamous smugfest was apparently pinned to the wall in the Leinster dressing room that day.

Again, though, circumstances changed.  Joe Schmidt brought a new skills-based emphasis and didn’t require the media to motivate his team.  Besides, once up and running, his slick Leinster team themselves became the most celebrated rugby team in the land.  The image of an exclusive school boys’ club was long removed and Leinster the family-friendly creche-cum rugby-club was a hit with the public.  The siege mentality could be put down.

So it is that Ulster look to be the team in possession.  They have a real chippy look this season.  They look like a bunch of caged beasts (with an appropriate nod to the memory of Nevin Spence, which seems to be driving them on to lay down something great in tribute).  Leinster and Munster still seem to swallow up most of the rugby oxygen, with Ulster a bit of an afterthought.  They’ve had to take Gerry Thornley saying things like ‘Ulster might be the better team, but Munster are the better province’, whatever that means.  They’ve had Hugh Farrelly write that Ulster beating Munster in the quarter-final last year was bad for Irish rugby.  Their players seem to draw the short straw come national selection time, with Chris Henry, Paul Marshall, Dan Tuohy, Paddy Jackson and Tom Court all missing out on selection at various times – and all to Munster players.  They might be entitled to feel that none of the Irish media – dominated by Munster and to a lesser extent Leinster – really like them.  And they don’t care.

But where does this leave Munster? Stuck in the middle of the Pro12 and in the most precarious position of the Big Three in terms of Heineken Cup, while Leinster are reigning champs of Europe and Ulster are unbeaten this season, they are right now the third best team in Irish rugby.  Shouldn’t they be the ones trying to foster the spirit of indignation?

For sure, but how?  The memories of Munster’s greatness are still fresh and there’s no real desire to turn the crosshairs on a province which has given so much to Irish rugby in the recent past.  The respect they’ve earned down the years has long-term value.  Even tedious 15-9 wins over a dull Saracens team have the press swooning like its the Beatles and are described as ‘magical nights’, while ROG even at his most ordinary can be described as the ‘perfect 10 giving a tactical masterclass’.

While we are not proclaiming that the entire Irish media are biased towards Munster, we do have a theory on this. The sports media in Ireland is pretty uncritical in general – they reflect a public which proclaims extreme loyalty towards “their” team (whoever it may be) and wants to see that reflected in what they read. In addition, Ireland is a small and parochial country – the sports media are in regular contact with coaches and players and like to keep on good terms with them. Two stories stand out in this regard:

  • Dwarf-gate in Queenstown – while Mike Tindall and various other England players were having photos surrepticiously taken by hacks writing Gotcha! stories, the Ireland team were in the exact same bar … with the Irish rugby press, all drinking together and having great gas
  • Fangio once told a story about how he wrote “Peter Clohessy would be the only man in Limerick whose car could be left unlocked on the street and it would still be there when he got back” – he meant it as a compliment that, in a city with a gritty reputation, the Claw was held in huge esteem. By the standards of (again) the English gutter press, it’s pretty tame stuff – but Clohessy took exception, and went out of his way to point that out to Fanning

So that means lots of positivity – but what has this got to do specifically with Munster? The punditry class in Ireland is dominated by former players, and those from Munster appear to be more reluctant to dole out criticism of their province than those with ties to Leinster or Ulster.

Leinster, in their lengthy fallow period, had to endure the likes of Franno and Jim Glennon sniping from the sidelines, sometimes with some pretty nasty observations (remember the Leinster Ladyboys?).  Ulster have always had a culture of criticism, and tend more naturally to see the glass as half-empty.  Former Ulster players feel a responsibility to hold today’s team up against the standard of their interpro-dominating vintages from the past. But former Munster players appear lothe to criticise the players wearing the shirt.  There’s a culture of blood being thicker than water, for sticking up for the team, buying into the ethos – embedded from their playing days when they had to do exactly the same.

Perhaps it will change once Generation Ligind move into media roles – they knew what it took to achieve greatness, know what professionalism is all about and know the standard required to make Munster great again. In fact, Alan Quinlan looks extremely capable of hard-hitting analysis [aside: when, as a former Munster player, he tipped them to lose at home to Saracens, it was so noteworthy the boys on OTB speculated about “Quinny Slams Munster” headlines], and Jirry Flannery is on record as saying he didn’t really rate the next group of players coming through, and in a remarkable swipe, said he didn’t have much time for ex-players hanging-on to the coat-tails of the current squad.  He’s yet to establish a niche for himself in the media, but could be interesting, and his hair is really fascinating.  And surely, when ROG eventually retires after the 2021 Lions tour and moves into punditry he’ll offer a suitably withering assessment of the shortcomings of his replacement at fly-half.  Now that has to be worth waiting for.

by whiffofcordite on December 13, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 13, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/13/siege-mentality/

Munster Fly-Half Steers Team To Famous Victory

The good ship Heineken is cruising along nicely, and the hopeless rats are deserting at a cracking pace – after this weekend, the list of realistic quarter finalists stands at a desultory 10 – Ulster and Quins will surely go through alone; and while Toulon, Sarries and Clermont hold the whip hand in their pools, Montpellier, Munster and Leinster are still in touch and have definite best runners-up potential. In the Pool of Death, the Ospreys are virtually gone, leaving Toulouse and Leicester to fight for top spot, and also contest for a best runners-up spot. Racing Metro and Castres are still alive, but they would much prefer to do it in the Top14, and may see HEC progression as counter-productive – the cream is rising to the top.

It was a good weekend for Romanian and Spanish rugby – Bucharest’s win over Agen had echoes of the 80s, when the Mighty Oaks had the Frenchies’ number, and Declan Cusack’s Bizkaia Gernika did what their fellows Basques in Biarritz and Bayonne couldn’t, and won a game – kudos all round. Rather less encouraging was the performance of the representatives from some of European rugby’s more prominent countries – after 3 rounds of the HEC, all the Welsh, Scottish and Italian sides are out of contention for qualification. In a miserable, no win 7 loss weekend for the Pro12 Patsies, Hard-Scrummaging Scarlets and Glasgow’s losses at home to English debutants Exeter and French Euro-bunnies Castres were notable low points. For the second year in three, we will have no Welsh quarter-finalists, Embra’s success last year looks increasingly like a flash in the pan and Italy continues its wait for a knock-out representative – this is not a sustainable divvy-up of the spoils.

All week, we had heard the repeated mantra of the Europe-dominating ambition of Saracens – from the cheerleading media in Blighty talking up their chances in Thomond, to the cheerleading media in Tara Street looking to underpin Munster’s underdog credentials. In the event, their lack of ambition on the field was stunning – for a team with such an array of talented backs, they play a horrendous brand of rugby. It’s hard to credit that a backline containing the likes of Hodgson, Farrell, Strettle, Goode and Ashton can score just 9 tries in 10 Premiership games. Do the top brass at Saracens really think that the type of 10 man dross that was in vogue 4 years ago is really a realistic gameplan for HEC success? If they do, their “European ambition” is just like the Northampton pack – all talk and no trousers.

With Ulster odds-on to be among the top 4 seeds going into the HEC quarter-finals, and the ERC stipulation on a minimum 15,000 capacity for knock-out games, the race is on to get Ravers up to capacity by April. Ulster want nothing less than to win their pool in style, only to draw a best runner-up like their modern-day nemesis, Leinster, and have to effectively give up home advantage. Expect Christmas to be cancelled in Belfast – the quid pro quo will be a first HEC knock-out game at Ravers since January 1999 and a serious tilt at bringing the trophy to Ravers for the second time, and to Ireland for a remarkable seventh.

As for Leinster, yesterday’s game was pretty instructive – Leinster were as “there for the taking” as they are going to be, yet Clermont looked a little intimidated – there is no doubt the regular wins for the D4 goys over the Bananamen have got into their heads. If Leinster end up going back to the Marcel Michelin in a quarter-final, they will be confident they have their number. Leinster won’t be happy at the prospect coming out of the pool in second, but they are probable seventh seeds and will fancy their chances away to Clermont, Ulster, Harlequins and Saracens. Only Toulon represent an intimidating journey into the unknown – it’s a fascinating sub-plot to the jostling for quarter-final seeding – third place might be a better place to be than second.

And finally, to Connacht, whose victory over fading heavyweights Biarritz was possibly the highlight of the weekend.  17 of their 22 points came from the boot of Dan Parks, including two sweetly struck drop goals.  In a season when foreign signings have been more under the microscope than ever, he is pound for pound th best bit of business by an Irish province this summer.  He is exactly what Connacht needed at this point in their development and is performing an invaluable job for them, turning the pressure they generate into points on the scoreboard.

The result certainly had an effect on our Munster-Leinster collision course.  It more or less takes Biarritz out of the equation, as they can only achieve a maximum of 20 points.  So, perhaps both Leinster and Munster could qualify as best runners-up?  Perhaps, but it’s looking like we might have been a bit dismissive of Pool 2’s chances of producing a second qualifier.  We thought Ospreys would be a contender in a three-way tussle in that group, but it doesn’t look like panning out that way.  With Ospreys now all but doomed, both Toulouse and Leicester could win there and set about achieving some pretty high points totals.

PS the “think of the fans” argument for not sending off players who commit dangerous tackles is one of the most annoying memes of modern times. After Lloyd Williams was sent off for dumping Benoit Paillauge on his noggin, Ieuan Evans and Paul Wallace moaned about how it was never a red, and the Sky line at full-time was how disappointing it all was for the fans to see a refereeing decision “ruin the game”. It prompted us to imagine this hypothetical conversation between fans:

Fan 1: Oh look, Player A is going to be in a wheelchair for the rest of his life after being dumped on his head.

Fan 2: Who cares about that, I’m just hoping the referee doesn’t send off Player B – I paid £15 to see this!

by whiffofcordite on December 10, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Complexities of Qualification, HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 10, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/10/munster-fly-half-steers-team-to-famous-victory/

Twenty20 Vision

It’s that time of year again – the December Heineken Cup double headers when the Irish get to teach the French culture and passion – the magic in the air (thanks, Gerry) of Irish provincial grounds has those renowned philistines in Biarritz and Bayonne setting down their hatchets and hams and asking could they be more like us.

The December pair of games often decide the fates of teams, either by gaining momentum with two quick wins, or edging an opponent out of the race over two legs. The relatively short break between these rounds, and the January games is an important factor too – teams can maintain form better over a few weeks of holidays than a month-long international break, and, conversely, a pair of disappointing results is hard to come back from.

This season’s competition is no different, and the three big Irish provinces face their biggest pool rivals in the crucial double headers, but from drastically different places. If Ulster manage one win and a losing bonus point, they will be on 14 points at Christmas with two eminently winnable games to come and their fate very much in their own hands – they will then have the pool more or less wrapped up (barring any disasters away to Castres), and will be targeting a home quarter final. They will, of course, be looking to win in Franklin’s Gardens, but these Saints have their moments and a losing bonus point would be no disgrace. Still, Ulster are in charge of their pool and have room for manouevre, unlike Leinster and Munster.

Adding up the numbers, it seems Munster and Leinster should be keeping a closer eye on each other than you might think, because of how the other pools are turning out. In Pool 6, Nouveau Riche Toulon are on the verge of disappearing into the distance – a double header with bluffers Sale Sharks and at least 9 points awaits – and the other teams are so rubbish/uninterested [delete as appropriate] they have no chance of scraping together enough points to push for qualification as a best runner-up. Pool 2 is the precise opposite – Toulouse, Leicester and the Ospreys are going to go down to the wire, meaning probably only one team is likley to get through, particularly with Treviso dangerous at home. Pool 3 is one where we will  see the first of the qualifying runners-up  – Harlequins and Biarritz have doubles with Zebre and Connacht respectively and we expect four wins for the bigger boys and both should be sitting pretty over egg nog with Granny.

So if the second runner-up isn’t going to come from Toulon or Ulster’s groups, or the Group of Death, who does that leave? Right! Its Leinster and Munster’s pools! What fun. Could the two Irish giants be on a collision course of sorts, without actually facing each other.  It looks like it.  We have Clermont and Saracens strong favourites in both pools – Clermont have a 2 point lead  and revenge in their sights, and Saracens are 3 points ahead in a pool with 2 rubbish teams in it. So the famously friendly provinces could be scrapping for the final slot in this years knock-out stages.

So how will it pan out?

Leinster are currently on 8 points after 2 games. They will have as their base case scenario:

  • Clermont (a) – 0 points
  • Clermont (h) – 4 points
  • Hard-scrummaging Scarlets (h) – 4 points
  • Exeter (a) – 4 points

A losing bonus point, to be truthful, is a tough ask in the Marcel Michelin, and is odds against, despite their recent record against les Jaunards. Five wins will give them 20 points, with home to the Scarlets being the obvious target for a bonus point to get to 21.  There’s scope to get up to 23 if they can get something this weekend, and perhaps if Exteter are a little punch-drunk in mid-January.

As for Munster, they have 6 after 2 games – 1 win and 2 bonus points. Here’s what they will look for, as a base case:

  • Saracens (h) – 4 points, tears and tales of Keith Wood and John Langford besting Pienaar and co
  • Saracens (a) – 1 point, tears and emotion from Gerry about famous away performances
  • Embra (a) – 4 points
  • Racing Metro (h) – 5 points from the French bunnies, tears, and triumphant recall of famous days past

That’s 20 as well! Rob Penney and his merry men will target pointless (in all senses) Embra as a potential extra bonus point to get to 21 themselves, but it’s hard to see them getting above this without beating Saracens twice, thereby winning the group and making the calculations irrelevant. Wow – isn’t this fun? Now, if they have the same number of points, it goes to tries scored, and Munster currently lead that metric 6-1, but they have less margin for error. Us? We hope it goes to the wire [well, Egg does; Palla just wants Leinster through and for his heart rate to stay below 180 in the process], and wouldn’t it be ironic if Leinster played their final game against Exeter knowing what they had to do – say, score 4 tries and win by 27 points or something unlikely like that? Imagine how miraculous that would be!

by whiffofcordite on December 6, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Complexities of Qualification, HEC, Leinster, Munster

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 6, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/06/twenty20-vision/

Wednesday Shorts

It’s the middle of the week and there’s plenty to wrap up before moving on to the Heineken Cup, so here’s a little about a lot.

Go and Learn To Beat France

Ireland have been pitted against France in the 2015 World Cup draw, and our history against them, especially in the World Cup itself, is fairly lamentable – the names Emile N’Tamack, Frederick Michalak and Vincent Clerc may ring some pretty painful bells.  Still, at least it gives us three years to work out how to beat them.  Ireland don’t really do ‘building for the World Cup’ in the same way as some other nations target it from far out, but you could be forgiven for thinking the gameplan they had going in to the last World Cup (essentially choke tackle everything in sight plus Give the Ball to Seanie or Fez) was tailored specifically to beating the Aussies.  It was certainly fit for purpose, but when it came to doing away with Wales, it was exposed as too narrow and one-dimensional.  Ireland now have three years to put together a gameplan that will beat France, because beat them we must or the BNZers await in the quarter finals.  Choke tackling probably won’t be as high on the list of priorities this time around.  Who knows, pace and offloading could – and should – come to the fore.  And somehow finding a way to deal with Louis Picamoles.

En-ger-land

Whatever you make of Lancaster’s mob, and whatever the details of the Kiwis’ succumbing to norovirus in the week, that was a performance to stir the soul.  English rugby will do well to keep its feet on the ground, but it’s a win worthy of a little getting carried away.  England’s commitment to the breakdown was especially commendable.  Wood, Launchbury and Youngs were outstanding in that area, repeatedly slowing down the Kiwis’ ball.  Whatever about Ashton’s loathsome swan dive, we were especially happy for two of the good guys in the team: Chris Robshaw for responding so well after his leadership credentials were questioned and Tom Wood for his best performance since being out for so long with injury.  Wood is a class act and had the grace through the adrenalin rush to wish the womens’ team the best of luck in his man of the match interview.

Professionalism Calleth

And so, the IRFU hurtle towards professionalism, with an Elite Performance Director soon to be appointed.  The role appears to involve developing and running the game, appointing coaches and trying to get the national team and provinces to work together rather than driving wedges between one another.  Time is very much of the essence – particularly, we imagine, with Deccie and his coaching team’s contracts up at the end of the year.  The role appears so well suited to Conor O’Shea it’s almost silly.  He has links to both Leinster and Munster and appears to have vision and terrific organisational capabilities.  Plus, he’s a smoothie who’d be highly capable at dealing with the public.  It’s a no brainer.  Could he be prised away from the Harlequins project for what would be a pivotal role in Irish rugby?  As Irish rugby fans, we would certainly hope so.

Filling Spaces

So, we turn our attentions to the Heineken Cup.  We’ll be looking in depth at the significance of the double headers on thursday, but a quick look at selection issues at the provinces is in order.  Ulster had the luxury of auditioning both Gilroy and Trimble for the play on the wing opposite Tommy Bowe, but Munster and Leinster appear not to be so fortunate right now.  In the back five for Munster, and the backline for Leinster, it’s become a case of finding enough good players to fill the spots, such are the injuries they’ve to withstand.  For Munster, O’Connell, Stander, Dougall and possibly Niall Ronan are all out, while Leinster must make do without O’Driscoll, Rob Kearney, Eoin O’Malley and Luke Fitzgerald.  We expect Munster to line out with O’Callaghan-Ryan-O’Callaghan-O’Mahony-Cawlin from 4 to 8, and Leinster to run with Madigan-Kearney-McFadden-D’arcy-Nacewa from 15-11.  A daunting weekend lies ahead for both.

by whiffofcordite on December 5, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Deccie Kidney, England, HEC, Ireland, Leinster, Munster, RWC15, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 5, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/05/wednesday-shorts/

Cultural Learnings of the November Internationals

Once again, we are utterly perplexed about this Ireland side? Are they the dynamic and creative team that overwhelmed and ran up a record score against (an admittedly tired and disinterested) Argentina? Or are they the lamentable and unsure bunnies who rolled over for the Springbok pack to tickle their collective bellies? The wild swings in performance level continue, and there is little point in trying to reach concrete conclusions about a group who frustrate and delight at the same time, so let’s just try and piece together what parts of the mystery are less enigmatic and which are as puzzling as ever.

What we Learned From the November Series

Yoof, Innit.  And not before time. Declan Kidney has taken quite a bit of heat for his reluctance to involve younger players who aren’t from Munster, and Craig Gilroy showed the potential that exists in throwing younger chaps who have yet to nail down a provincial shirt in at the deep end. Against Argentina, Gilroy offered an entirely new threat to that posed by other Irish backs – a geniunely pacy winger who is elusive in contact and runs intelligent lines. Within 10 minutes of his full debut he had a try in his pocket and the Irish rugby fans at his feet – a star in the making. It won’t be long either until his young colleagues Paddy Jackson, Luke Marshall and Iain Henderson are in the full side – the imminent retirement of Radge, succession questions at inside centre and need for a top class dynamic lock will see to that. The sons of Ulster might be arriving at just the right time to give Deccie’s reign a jolt of electricity that it sorely needs

Goodnight Sweetheart. In the two big games Ireland played, the man who used to boss the best in Europe around came on for a 10 minute cameo, and on both occasions, produced plays so lamentable that if they were produced by someone at the other end of his career we would hear nothing but their unsuitability to international rugby. Kicking the ball away when your team needs a try and chipping it into the grateful hands of an opposition player (leading to a try) illustrate that the great man’s international career is at an end. [As a side note, we loved how the RTE commentators studiously overlooked the errors on both occasions.]  It demonstrated a streak of selfishness, trying the million dollar play to grab the potential headlines, when he should have been playing the team game.  For 10 years, his decision-making was flawless, now it’s going-to-gone.  He has nothing more to offer, and it’s sad to see it end like this. In the pack, Donncha O’Stakhanov might have been the first sub (and only sub for 15 minutes) introduced against the Pumas, but his international career is surely over. For all the sterling service he has given, he doesn’t offer anything like he used to, or like the alternatives do, even (especially?) in the absence of Paul O’Superman. Let them move on with some dignity.

Provincial Form Counts, At Last. For the last two years, Chris Henry and Mike McCarthy have been doing the grunt work on the provincial circuit and proving themselves capable against the best teams in Europe, but for no international reward. With the injury jinx hitting Deccie’s usual servants, opportunities arose and were grasped with both hands. Competition for places is crucial in any setup, and the folly of ignoring the players playing best in their position in previous series has been laid bare by the ease with which this pair stepped up to international level.

Murray and Sexton can play together.  Conor Murray has endured a difficult twelve months and, outside him, Johnny Sexton has cut a frustrated figure for Ireland.  Too often, Murray’s first thought is to run, and his second to pass.  Sexton is the sort of general who demands centre stage – ‘give me the ball and I will direct things’.  Against Argentina, Murray was excellent.  His running was used as a strength, sucking in defenders, but rather than use it to run up blind alleys, he created space, and time, and Sexton used it to glorious effect.  The Leinster fly-half has a clear run at the Lions No.10 shirt, and no other player is even remotely in the picture.

Old fashioned wingers still at a premium.  The modern game this, how is his defence that, is he big enough the other.  It’s reassuring to see that a willowy wing who can change direction quickly is still an invaluable commodity in a world where 110kg monsters occupy every channel.  Gilroy’s electric feet and finisher’s pace are terrifically old-fashioned.  A couple of other impish speedsters are coming up on the radar in Irish rugby; Luke O’Dea and Andrew Conway.  Any rugby fan with a beating heart can only wish to see more of this unique brand of genius.

What we still don’t know

Are Ireland any good?  The series finished on a high with a memorable victory and a great performance.  But we know all too well the problem with this team, and it precludes us from getting too excited.  The pattern of occasional brilliance, usually when painted into a corner surrounded by swathes of mediocrity remains unbroken.  No team is properly consistent at test level – even New Zealand blow cold now and then – but it’s hard to think of too many whose performance graph waves so violently as Ireland’s.  Maybe Wales.  It’s only when we see how Ireland perform in Cardiff in the Six Nations that we can get any more clarity.  That’s a couple of months away.  Until then, the Irish team remains as enigmatic as ever.

Is Kidney on his last legs? For a decade, Declan Kidney has built success upon success with a relatively simple formula – enable key players with big personalities to play to their strengths, and let the silverware flow. His coaching style is hands-off with an impenetrable exterior masking a completely impenetrable interior. The formula worked well in Munster and with an Ireland team backboned by sons of Munster, but has struggled to adapt well to a Leinster-dominated team more used to something more expansive and highly instructive coaching. If Kidney can adapt his approach to cater for a side where the established players are Leinster and the young guns Ulster-based (where Deccie’s cute hoorism is particularly denigrated), he might be able to move the team on. The signs are both good (Johnny Sexton admitted the November camp was the best he’d been involved in) and bad (who exactly coached what?) at the same time. Deccie essentially needs a Grand Slam or he’s gone – it looks highly unlikely, but it would be foolish to say completely impossible.

Who will be Lions captain? At times this series looked like an attempt by players to play themselves off the plane.  Sam Warburton’s credentials are receding by the second and while Chris Robshaw has always looked more midweek captain than test team leader, his wrong-headed decision-making against South Africa gave his critics some easy ammunition.  None of the obvious Irish candidates, Paul O’Connell, Brian O’Driscoll, Rory Best or Rob Kearney were fit.  Jamie Heaslip advanced his credentials to a moderate degree in the Argentina game, while Johnny Sexton looks increasingly like a real candidate for the role.  We’ve always suspected he’s a touch too cranky for the manly chats with the referee, but he is a natural leader and one of few players nailed on for a test start.

Who will win the Six Nations?  Open season.  Can Ireland stop flattering to deceive?  Will Wales bounce back from their run of defeats or have they had their moment?  What of England?  They look close to being a good team, but it’s always just out of reach.  France had the best series of any of the Northern hemisphere, winning all three games with a rejuvenated Michalak at 10 and a lip-smacking backrow of Ouedraogo (finally!), Nyanga and Picamoles.  But they must travel to Dublin and London, so it’s a tough campaign for them. And besides, it’s France, so they could be rubbish againin six months time.

What happens back at the provinces?  Those with especially short memories might have forgotten that before November, Donnacha Ryan was having an anonymous season on the blindside with Munster.  He needs to get back to playing in his best position regularly.  Hopefully the arrival of CJ Stander will facilitate this.  Up North, Craig Gilroy’s return to regular starter is a pressing requirement – on the evidence of November, the mind boggles that Timble is picked ahead of him, but Trimble is in for his defence in a backline that contains shorties like Paddys Jackson and Wallace and occasional revolving door Jared Payne.  If Anscombe succumbs to pressure to advance Luke Marshall’s education with Heineken Cup starts, this would actually facilitate Gilroy’s advancement, as Marshall, as well as being an expansive gainline merchant, is a big (ish) heavy chap.

Is Keith Earls the Odd Man Out?  Keith Earls singularly failed to grab his chance at 13, and could find himself struggling for selection in the Six Nations, when BOD will be back.  His much-stated desire to play 13 should preclude his selection on the wing, where one of Gilroy and Zebo will have to miss out in any case.  He could be in a tight spot … unless BOD continues to do his best to play himself off the team!

by whiffofcordite on November 26, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Deccie Kidney, Ireland, Leinster, Munster, Six Nations, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 26, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/11/26/cultural-learnings-of-the-november-internationals/

It’s Only Fiji

‘Only Fiji’ might have been a wash, but at least Ireland looked purposeful and inventive. We suspect less exposure to the coaching staff is a good thing, as it allowed the Ulsters youngsters to do their thang with youthful fearlessness and lack of experience. It’s glib to say we didn’t learn anything – England certainly managed to take things from beating Only Fiji a week ago by less than we did with their full team – but it certainly was less than ideal.

Ireland would have loved a more testing run out to be able to infer a little more into their young team’s performances, but they got what they deserved in one sense – the IRFU’s lamentable decision not to hand out caps for the game was at least partly responsible for Fiji’s decision to take a night off tackling. Another major factor for the opposition, and it’s hard to know how any squad would react, was the untimely passing of one of their members -no doubt the tragic death of Maleli Kunavore was on their minds.

Still, the sight of a natural wing (Craig Gilroy) was exciting on a visceral level. In recent years, Ireland have made a habit of making wings out of centres – Shane Horgan, Luke Fitzgerald and Andrew Trimble for example (Dorce made the opposite journey) – and it’s refreshing to see a born winger in full flight. When you see the silky running and nimble footwork of a genuine wing, you feel your heartrate quickening – think Vinny Clark or Bryan Habana in full flight. Gilroy did enough to push Trimble hard for his slot for the Pumas game.  Given Trimble’s more limited, power-based game, it can only be a matter of time before he finds his Ulster shirt under threat as well.

The biggest loser of the night was, oddly, the other winger, Ferg.  He played well and scored two tries, but in comparison to Gilroy, he looked like what he is – a centre playing out of position. Plus, not only did Gilroy look a better wing, but they way Luke Marshall settled effortlessly in to the scene was another flashing light. Both McFadden and Marshall will likely displace Dorce and PWal in their favoured 12 shirt at the same time at provincial level, but Marshall showed he is a long-term threat to Ferg’s presumed succession to Dorce in green.

Continuing on the Ulster theme., Paddy Jackson did enough to warrant a bench slot against the Pumas – he is a natural talent and chose the right option nearly all the time. The only pity is that his placekicking ran awry after such a confident start.  There is little value in persisting with a tired and disinterested ROG – it may come down to just how cross management are with him for his careless kick-away against South Africa.

On the down side, it was predictable disappointing to see Fiji reverting to dirty high and late tackles (and ball-squeezing) when things weren’t going their way – the tip tackle on Murray could have been disastrous had he not got his hand down and the late hit on Paddy Jackson was horrible. There was quite a bit of niggle in the game at the end, and it would have been disappointing to see a red card flashed… but not surprising.

Also, the actions of the tiny, but vocal, militant minority in booing Jamie Heaslip off the field was needless, small-minded and a timely reminder of the nasty inter-provincial bitterness still bubbling beneath the surface in Ireland. These people do not represent anyone but themselves, and the reaction of the vast majority of fans was warm and proud.  Besides, Heaslip’s skill in putting McFadden away for the first try of the second half showcased his great ability, while his breakdown work was excellent as usual.  He’d a good night as captain.  Next up, Fernandez Lobbe.

Finally, there was some grumbling on Twitter about Ulster fans’ somewhat parochial take on the game.  On this occasion, we [this is the Leinster half of WoC writing this paragraph] can forgive them a somewhat one-eyed view.  Up north there is a strong sense that Ulster’s revival has not been recognised by the national team management, and whether coinidentally or not, a number of their best players persistently come out the wrong side of marginal selection calls against Munster players (think Dan Tuohy, Chris Henry, Paul Marshall, Darren Cave, Craig Gilroy and latterly Tom Court).   It’s been a while since they could celebrate a good Irish performance with so many of their home grown players in the XV (8 by the final whistle) – a little over-exuberance is understandable!

by whiffofcordite on November 19, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Deccie Kidney, Fiji, Ireland, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 19, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/11/19/its-only-fiji/

Mythbusters Part Deux

In and around any international series, it has become inevitable that a number of bizarre viewpoints take on the status of hard facts, whether by being repeated by influential media personnel, through selective memories of those involved or good old-fashioned provincial bias.  Last season it was decreed that Ireland needed huge backs and that Sean O’Brien couldn’t play openside.  This year, a few more are circulating already.

Myth Number 1: Keith Earls can’t play 13

Perpetrators: A lot of people who don’t come from Limerick

Last week our comments section became weighed down with folk of the fixed opinion that ‘Keith Earls can’t/shouldn’t/isn’t a natural/isn’t a test class 13’.    Now, we don’t want to be picking a fight to our loyal readership, but we’re just not buying this one. 

Lets start by going back to last year when we posted this piece. Since then (in fact, pretty much since the World Cup), Earls has done everything asked of him.  He shone like a beacon amid Munster’s abysmal back play last season, all from the position of 13, and in spite of incompetence all around him. He threw in a shocker of a performance at home to Castres, but since that day has been excellent.  Remember the pivotal Ulster game in Thomond Park?  Earls was brilliant: he showed quick hands to get Zebo into the corner for his try and the highlight was his sumptuous pass to Felix Jones late in the second half, which looked to have put the full-back into open country, only for him to inexplicably drop the ball.

In the Six Nations he performed admirably in the role, in the absence of O’Driscoll, and generally won good reviews for his performances.  His good form in the role continued into this season, when he looked pin-sharp before his injury. The argument that he can’t actually do it is based on a few things: that Earls lacks the size to play the role, that he is a poor defender and that he lacks the distribution and awareness of space.

On the last point, we would direct anyone of this opinion to the video below, of a try in Ravenhill this season.  Yes, you can prove anything with a highlights reel, but in this try Earls touches the ball three times, and every touch shows such natural footballing intuition that it can only come from a player with keen awareness of space and good distribution.  His first is an expertly timed round the corner pass to put Billy Holland into a gap, his second a beautiful, fast pass in front of Laulala to open up the space out wide.  Does he stay take a moment to marvel at the splendour of his skill?  He does not, instead making a beeline to support the men out wide and gets on the end of Hurley’s inside pass to score a try.  It’s the sort of skillset that can’t be taught or manufactured.  It’s classic midfield play.

Then we have the size argument.  True, he is not a huge man.  Keith Earls tips the scales at 90kg.  That’s three kilos lighter than both Brian O’Driscoll and Fergus McFadden and four lighter than Wesley Fofana, who plays in the traffic-heavy 12 channel.  But more importantly, the size argument is frequently ill-deployed.  Most ‘Earls is not a 13’ campaigners are happy to continue to select him on the wing.  But in these days of George Norths and Tim Vissers, the wings are no more suitable for lightweights than the midfield.  Either you can defend well enough to play in the three-quarter line or you can’t, and we’d argue that Earls can.

There’s a sense that certain high profile bloopers have been over-played – compare and contrast the reactions to the Manu Incident in August 2011 and Gareth Maule’s burning of BOD a few weeks ago. Incident 1 has been re-treaded ad infitum (and we are as guilty as anyone in that regard), yet Incident 2 is written off as an obvious freak, something that will never happen again – which of course it probably was, since those things happen to everyone from time-to-time, even BOD. And Keith Earls.

Earls has shown in the last 12 months he has the football to play at 13, and he looks like he has the mental too – we’d pick him at 13 for this series, in spite of the form of Darren Cave – he’s one of our best players and its his best position.

Myth 2: Someone Other Than Jamie Heaslip Should Be Captain if Paul O’Connell isn’t Fit

Perpetrator: Many hacks, most notably Keith Wood

Brian O’Driscoll has been Ireland’s captain for over a decade. His on-field pack lieutenant for most of that period has been Paul O’Connell. Rory Best is the other key member of the leadership triumvirate for the national side. So who should lead the team if all 3 are out?

The first and most obvious requirement is that they are actually in the team in the first place, and are guaranteed their place, not just now but for the medium-term – there is little point in giving the armband to Dorce, no matter how well his is playing. So, on that basis, who are the contenders? We’ll go with Cian Healy, Mike Ross, Stephen Ferris, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip, Johnny Sexton, Tommy Bowe or Rob Kearney – there are no other automatic selections with a fully-fit panel.

Fez, O’Brien and Kearney are injured, so they are out. Mike Ross is a key player in a key position, but is 32 and has shown no desire or aptitude for captaincy in the past – he’s out too, and Tommy Bowe, for all his qualities, is patently not major-general material. Which leaves Healy, Heaslip and Sexton.

We’d argue that Healy is just too individual and introspective to be the national captain – plus we aren’t sure he would want it. He’s a quiet and determined chap on the pitch, not quite a Johnno-esque over-the-top type – we don’t think he’s a candidate. Sexton is a key player and probable Lions outhalf, should now be a member of the inner sanctum, but he’s simply too cranky on the pitch to the the Man. His leadership qualities aren’t in doubt – look at his many inspirational performances for Leinster – but he has enough on his plate at out-half – keep him close, but don’t let him toss the coin. Which leaves Heaslip – a natural leader, captaincy experience, guaranteed his place on the team and a mature head with over 50 Test caps. He’s the only credible captain.

Woody’s contribution to the debate was to suggest Sexton or Peter O’Mahony. Sexton’s qualities are discussed above, but its simply madness to consider POM. The hype surrounding O’Mahony has done him no favours, resulting in unrealistic expectations, being shunted back and forth across the backrow, merely allowing top-class opponents (Ruchie, Adam Thompson) to highlight his weaknesses, and being rested at Deccie’s behest when playing might be in his longer-term interests. O’Mahony might make a brilliant Ireland captain in the future, but that day, if/when it comes, will be at least 5 years away – right now, he should be concentrating on getting a position, gaining experience, playing time and maturity, and listening to the Mole instead of Keith Wood.

Note: we aren’t totally down on the idea that a long-term view should be taken, but a balance needs to be struck. If we were only thinking about RWC19, why not go the whole hog and give Iain Henderson the armband?

Myth 3: Ireland’s Management Are In No Way Responsible for the Tighthead Crisis

Perpetrator: Largely Gerry Thornley

After Michael Bent’s incredible call-up to the Ireland squad shortly after landing in Dublin airport, its hard to know who was more incredulous – the fans or the player himself. However, after a bit of thought, its not clear what alternatives the management had – Deccie Fitz is notoriously injury prone, so a third tighthead was needed, and who else was there? Ronan Loughney is behind Nathan White in Connacht, and Stephen Archer is not at Pro12 level, never mind international.

So Bent gets the nod, which is fine. But how did this situation arise? Why simple, say Gerry et al – “there was a lot of investment made in Tony Buckley, which didn’t pay off”. Hmmmm, true, but only to a point. A more accurate and complete description would be “the IRFU and the Ireland management team made a lot of investment in Tony Buckley, which didn’t pay off”.

So Ireland’s Tighthead Crisis is not, after all, completely exogenous to management. In fact, they, to a degree, are responsible for the situation they now find themselves in. Mike Ross was completely ignored until he became last man standing (February 2011, after Mushy failed to make it 80 minutes in a Woflhounds game) and the November 2010 series was a travesty for tighthead development. Is it any wonder we find ourselves where we are?

Now, to be fair to Deccie, its not like there are piles of tightheads whose development he is ignoring – he only gets to ignore them when they make it into the Leinster/Ulster/Connacht teams. The blame for the lack of youngsters coming through lies largely at the door of 10 Lansdowne Road – at the blazers who run the IRFU. There is no scrum czar, no national director of scrummaging, and no development plan for promising tightheads. Adam Macklin played 8 in school, not because he couldn’t push in the scrum, because he is built like a tank and since, for safety reasons, you can’t scrummage at full power in the schools game, so Methody could best utilise him at 8 – if there was a professional director of scrummaging, he may have been far keener on Macklin playing in his proper position. Would he have been put at 8 in New Zealand?

We’re going to be stuck with this situation of digging up graves in the Southern Hemisphere to find Irish grannies until we put a proper professional development structure in place to develop props. As O’Reilly said yesterday, the amateur hour IRFU are an increasing anachronism in a professional game – time they did the likes of Macklin and Tadgh Furlong a favour and put their careers in the hands of someone who knows what they are doing.

by whiffofcordite on November 5, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Deccie Kidney, Ireland, Ireland's Tighthead Crisis, Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 5, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/11/05/mythbusters-part-deux/

Square Pegs, Round Holes

Yesterday we pored over Ireland’s options in the forward units, decrying a lack of beef available to replace the injured players.  But in the backline, there’s a whole other set of problems.  Rob Kearney and Brian O’Driscoll are injured, robbing the team of its captain and its mainstay at full-back, and best player over the last year.

With Geordan Murphy retired and Luke Fitzgerald and Gavin Duffy injured, Ireland don’t have much in the way of experienced back-ups at full-back.  Meanwhile, replacing BOD in the centre is not a task that comes easily to anyone.  Before looking at what options are available (and we do have some), here are a few important factors that need to be considered when trying to patch together a back division for next week’s test.

  1. South Africa kick a lot.  The Saffers love nothing more than booting the ball into orbit and sending their flying wings (with enormous flankers in hot pursuit) chasing after it.  Whoever is selected at full-back should know they’ll be in for a long day if they are not comfortable fielding high balls.  This does suggest a preference for a specialist at 15, as opposed to shoe-horning someone into the role.
  2. Gordon D’arcy will start.  D’arcy has copped a lot of flak for some less than eye-catching form in green, and he was pretty useless in the Six Nations.  But every time we think it’s safe to strike a line through his name he comes back again.  His form for Leinster since returning from injury has been excellent and merits selection for the first test in the series.
  3. Conor Murray will start.  From Stuart Barnes to the dogs on the street, just about everyone wants to see Sexton paired with his provincial team-mate Eoin Reddan, whose game is tailor made to get Johnny on the front foot and in control.  But Kidney and co., already mindful of a beef-deficiency, will stick with Conor Murray.  Before groaning loudly, it’s worth noting that Murray is playing reasonably well so far this season, his Paris horror-show aside.
  4. The Saffer back-line is big, but not monstrous.  Jean de Villiers is a big fellow but their biggest unit, Frans Steyn, is injured. But the South Africa back-line isn’t quite on the super-sized scale of the Welsh unit.  Nor are they likely to cut Ireland up with dashing moves and outrageous skill.  On top of all this, there’s some talk of experimentation and using the tour to build for the 2015 World Cup.  This is not a South Africa team to be feared.  Kidney and co. should concentrate on getting the best players they can on the pitch and not be too mindful of giving up a few kilos here and there.  The likes of Gordon D’arcy and Keith Earls punch well above their weight.
  5. Experience and players playing in their best position count for a lot.  We’d encourage Kidney to put as few square pegs in round holes as he can.  Against this, he has to balance up a requirement to ensure the backline isn’t too callow.  Darren Cave at 13, Felix Jones at 15 and Simon Zebo at 11 might sound exciting on paper, but it’s very raw, with three novices out of five in the back division.

With all that in mind, the options avilable, as we see them, are as follows.

The Specialists – 15 Jones, 14 Bowe, 13 Earls, 12 D’arcy, 11 Zebo/Trimble

Be Happy: Everyone is playing in their natural position and we’ve a proper full-back on the pitch, and one with an exciting counter-attacking game too.  Earls’ performances at 13 in the last 12 months should have convinced the doubters at this stage that he’s up to task – we were one of them ourselves.

Be Worried: Felix Jones is just back from a(nother) lengthy lay-off and has only had one start with Munster, at home to that European powerhouse Zebre.  He’ll have another this weekend, but it’s a massive risk to throw such an inexperienced and injury-prone player in at the deep end like that.  Earls himself is also recovering from injury and has not played since the Leinster game in Lansdowne Road.

The Strike Runners- 15 Earls, 14 Trimble, 13 Bowe, 12 D’arcy, 11 Zebo

Be Happy: why not just try and get all our best strike runners on to the pitch?  This would necessitate bringing Bowe off the wing, which would create room for both Trimble and Zebo, two wings in a rich vein of form.  Alternatively, Bowe and Earls could switch jumpers, with Bowe more reliable under the high ball.

Be Worried: Bowe may be solid under the high ball but once he catches it, he isn’t the best kicker in the world.  Reverting to Bowe at centre, then, and you’d have two players out of position, and Bowe hasn’t played 13 in a significant game in a long time, with perhaps too much weight being put on a good performance there for the Lions over three years ago.

The Cavemen- 15 Earls, 14 Bowe, 13 Cave, 12 D’arcy, 11 Zebo/Trimble

Be Happy: On the face of it, the most balanced selection, with Darren Cave coming into the centre.  He’s perhaps the most BOD-like 13 available.  That would allow Bowe to stay in his best position, while Earls would have to ready himself for an aerial onslaught.

Be Worried: Earls at 15 and an outside centre making his first test start.  And besides, what if Earls is injured?  Bringing Jones in would leave the backline way too inexperienced.

The Ooooooooooooohhh – 15 Hurley, 14 Bowe, 13 McFadden, 12 Downey, 11 Trimble

Be Happy: Ooooooooooohhh, those Saffers are awfully big chaps.  Let’s fight fire with fire and get our most physical, bosh-tastic backline out on the pitch.  We can almost hear Barnesy gearing up already.

Be Worried: Ireland don’t need to be any more dull to watch than they already are.

by whiffofcordite on November 1, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Boshtastic South Africans, Deccie Kidney, Ireland, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 1, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/11/01/square-pegs-round-holes/

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