What next for Keith Earls?

It was this time last week four years ago that Keith Earls was named in the Lions squad.  He was the archetypal bolter, barely established at international level – he’d been capped against Canada in the previous Autumn series – but showing red-hot form in the lead in to the Lions announcement, culminating in a brilliant performance in the famous thrashing of the Ospreys at Thomond Park that signified the peak of the great Munster team of the noughties.

As it transpired, the tour didn’t go all that brilliantly for Keet, but he overcame a difficult start (he dropped his very first bomb in his very first game and looked harrowed by the experience) to get lots of gametime and it was put down as a learning experience that would stand to him, and surely he’d be back in four years time.  Except that is not how it’s turned out at all.  A flash Munster winger with a nose for the tryline was considered unlucky to miss out on the squad, but that was Simon Zebo.  In the shake-up, Earls was nowhere, barely mentioned in the parlour-game that is the multiple selection of theoretical squads by every writer, blogger or pundit.

He was largely absent from Munster’s recent resurgence, playing a minimal role in their two best performances of the season.  He was injured for the Harlequins match, and played in the unfamiliar 14 shirt against Clermont and left the field early in the second half.  His replacement, Denis Hurley scored the try that put Munster back into the match. This season he also lost his starting shirt for the first games of the Six Nations, though he quickly got into the team on the back of injury to his clubmate Zebo.

It doesn’t quite count as a fall from grace; Earls is still highly thought of in Munster, and no doubt Joe Schmidt will continue to see him as a valued squad member for Ireland.  But it does seem like Keith Earls has found himself somewhat squeezed out of the foreground.  Part of the issue is the positional to-ing and fro-ing that Earls has endured throughout his career.  Last summer, he made a pretty big deal of telling the media he ‘hated’ playing on the wing, and was adamant that he wanted to play centre exclusively for Munster.  In spite of having Casey Laulala in his squad, Penney granted Earls his wish and picked him at centre for much of the season.  But it’s been curious to watch Munster deliver their best when Casey Laulala played 13 (and crucially, when, for almost the first time, Laulala’s teammates appeared to be getting on his wavelength).

The Earls-for-13 movement hasn’t been quite as terrible as some have made out, and he’s had his moments at centre.  He certainly has the running skills to play there, and at times it’s important to focus on what he can do rather than what he can’t.  A couple of months into the season, Earls was in terrific form and looked comfortable in the role.  Witness the try in Ravenhill, where Earls touched the ball three times, one around-the-corner pass, another pass fast, flat and in front of the player running on to it, and the third a try-scoring support line.

But since then things have stalled, and the issue of Earls’ lack of distribution skills just won’t go away.  The other problem is that he cannot simply go back onto the left wing again; there’s a new sheriff in town over there.  It leaves him looking at another year trying to get to grips with the full range of skills required to play centre, or possibly redefining himself as a right wing, taking up the gap about to be vacated by Dougie Howlett.  Ultimately Rob Penney will have the final say.  As the season wore on, we got the feeling he sees his ideal 13 as more of a distributor than Earls can ever really be.  When Munster offered Luke Fitzgerald a contract and the promise of the 13 shirt, what did it say about Rob Penney’s faith in Earls’ continuing suitability for the role?

It can be unfortunate for players when a single event so dominates the public consciousness, but for Earls the moment where he failed to pass to Brian O’Driscoll having made a clean line break against Scotland in the Six Nations this season has almost come to define his lack of awareness of others around him.

It looks like next season could involve yet another positional change for Earlsy.  You could argue that we Irish are unnecessarily daunted by versatility and being a jack-of-many-trades, but for a player who has admitted to issues with self-confidence and has talked in the media about his determination to play in a specific position, it has the look of a backward step.

Lions Captaincy Playoff

It was a good time to be an Irish rugby fan last week – after a chastening Six Nations, the country basked in the warm afterglow of Munster’s sack of the Stoop – it was the gift that kept on giving, with Harlequins stroppy mid-week press release vowing to identify the fans who sold their tickets classic “Munster in Europe” stuff.

The honeymoon extended into the build-up to the Munster-Leinster game, and the self-congratulation got dialled up to 11 – Shaggy decreed it the greatest club rugby rivalry in the world (Biarritz-Bayonne anybody?) and there was almost universal agreement that it had driven Irish rugby to greater levels. We’d agree with that to a point – on-field there is no doubt Munster’s achievements have driven Leinster, but off the field, the petty desire for some people to see everything through the provincial prism is most irritating, and that has been one of the legacies of the intensity of the rivalry from 2009-11. The match was billed in the Irish press as a virtual playoff for the Lions captaincy between Drico and Paulie in front of Gatty – we’d have loved to see the reaction of the press in Blighty had they got a sniff of that one.

The one thing that got overlooked in the sepia-tinged buildup to the game was this – only one team had a need for the points. Munster were out of the running for the Pro12 playoffs, and had one eye (and the wallet) on events in Montpellier in two weeks, whereas Leinster would like to secure a home semi-final. Plus Leinster have had a lock on this fixture for the last few years – we could see only one result.

And so it transpired – Munster played pretty well, then predictably faded after 60 minutes – O’Driscoll got over for Leinster and they duly saw it home. The exertions the previous Sunday took their toll on Munster, and no-one was too bothered about the win once the performance was decent – the Bananamen looming on the horizon was the bigger fish to fry.  It was an enjoyable game for this neutral (Egg) – it was certainly a level above the normal dross served up in the Pro12, and the skill level of the young Irish players on display was very impressive.

You might not have known it from Gerry’s match report, but the main talking point after the game was Paul O’Connell’s kick on Dave Kearney – to our eyes, it was clearly unintentional, but just as clearly reckless use of the boot. Kearney will be out for a few weeks, and we would be surprised if O’Connell isn’t as well – no-one wants to see him miss out on the semi-final, but, just like Brian O’Driscoll’s stamp on Simone Favaro last month, it appears to be an open-and-shut case.

It shouldn’t impact his Lions selection, but with Munster (and Ireland)’s propensity for being 50% of the team they are without him, O’Connell will certainly impact the game with Clermont Auvergne – and not in the way Irish rugby fans hoped.

It’s all about Munster

Who writes these guys’ scripts? Honestly, this team got their hides whupped by Treviso and Glasgow in their last two away trips, but taught the champions of England a lesson in how to win when it mattered. We have berated some of our good friends in the mainstream media in the past for Munster-obsession, but you can see why they are so addictive – they are an incredible story.

Lulling all of Europe into a false sense of security by playing rubbish wide-wide guff all season, only to then produce a most memorable performance from when it matters – that’s the embodiment of the crazy old tournament that is the Heineken Cup laid bare.  It’s surely the only tournament where you can play poorly for much of the season and still win the biggest prize of all, but only so long as you peak at the right times.  Michael Cheika spoke of almost having to manufacture dips in the season to ensure his team peaked for the Cup matches, and even then it didn’t go very smoothly.  History has written that Leinster won the cup in 2009, but anyone who remembers much of how that season unfolded wil recall they played terribly for vast swathes of it.

Back to Munster’s performance.  And boy was it a performance. They started rather tentatively in the first 30 minutes, but as it became clear Quins had very little to threaten them, Munster stepped on the pedal, controlled territory and bossed the game. Ronan O’Gara had acres of space to play territory and Quins basically had no answer, looking anaemic in attack and walking into choke tackles and a breakdown area dominated by dervishes in red.   Quins couldn’t get anything going, and any time they threatened to, they lost the ball.

We said before the game that to win this game would require Munster’s best performance in Europe yet, but all it required was an aggressive and manic pack, accurate kicking from the halves and Superman Paul O’Connell being Paul O’Connell Superman. O’Connell played himself onto the Lions tour, quite possibly as captain, and some of the Quins players fell down the pecking order.  Peter O’Mahony looked like the player he has threatened to become on occasions, and Tommy O’Donnell – little boy lost this time last year – was a revelation.

No-one saw this one coming, least of all Quins (and, erm, ourselves), and the casual attitude from Conor O’Shea’s men was a bit surprising to say the least – they seemed stunned by an archetypal Munster performance, the best since .. what, Clermont at home a few years ago? Or maybe Quins just aren’t all that – they limped out of last year’s Heineken Cup to an average Toulouse side, losing to Connacht to allow the French side to slip through, although they did win the Premiership through the playoffs (admittedly, beating the Saints along the way, which kind of doesn’t count).

Harlequins have historically under-achieved relative to the big West Country and East Midlands teams – even Bum Face’s crew of the early 1990s haven’t the silverware this bunch have (albeit there were less competitions in the 1990s). There has been much talk of them being ‘fast learners’, and they would apply the painful lessons of last season, but maybe this is just Harlequins’ glass ceiling. They certainly didn’t look like English champions or potential European champions, and had little idea of how to play a cup game in the trenches.

But that’s all by the by.  Full credit to Munster, let’s hope we see many more performances like that, not least in Montpellier in three weeks, for they’ll need at least this to avoid a mashing from the best team in Europe, although the way they continue to defy the odds, perhaps they won’t. One thing is for sure, they have the mental in spades, and Clermont have struggled with Irish sides in the past.  And they’ve one other thing: Paul O’Connell.

Munster’s Mission (Virtually) Impossible

April 30th, 2011. Amlin Challenge Cup, semi-final, Munster vs Harlequins, Thomond Park.

Munster had just come through a joyous quarter final in Brive and had juggernaut-esque smoke coming off them. The woeful efforts away to London Irish, the Ospreys and Toulon earlier in the season were forgotten, and the hubris of 2009 was present in the pre-game description of Quins as “a middling side from an average league”.

In the event, Quins battered Munster in the first half, and were unfortunate to go in only 7 points ahead. They withstood the expected onslaught to prevail 20-12. The lineups that day were:

Munster: Jones; Howlett, Mafi, Warwick, Earls; O’Gara, Murray; du Preez, Varley, Buckley; O’Callaghan, O’Driscoll; Leamy, Wallace, Coughlan. Subs: Sherry, Horan, Hayes, O’Connell, Ryan, Stringer, Tuitupou, Murphy

Harlequins: Brown; Camacho, Lowe, Ooooooooooh Turner-Hall, Monye; Evans, Care; Marler, Gray, Johnston; Kohn, Robson; Fa’asavalu, Robshaw, Easter. Subs: Cairns, Jones, Lambert, Vallejos, Skinner, Moore, Clegg, Chisholm.

The Munster line-up, and particularly the bench, was ligind-tastic, and Munster had only one defeat in European rugby in Thomond Park at that stage, to an Iain Humphreys’-led Leicester side in 2007, when the Liginds were already-qualified. That renowned Munster-hater/non-homer (delete as appropriate) Romaine Poite in charge in the middle.

The final scoreline was genuinely surprising – no-one thought Quins had the poise at that stage in their development to sack fortress Thomond, despite Munster having started something of a rebuild three months earlier. That they did with ease raised quite a few eyebrows on both sides of the Irish Sea, and was an early harbinger of the fortunes of both sides in the interim.

Since then, Quins have gone on to lift the Amlin Cup (in most fortuitous style, robbing Stade Francais blind in the Cardiff City Stadium), then followed that up with a Premiership win – they started like a train during the World Cup, wobbled a bit, then finished very strongly to beat Leciester in a riveting final. In Europe last year, they bottled it in Galway to leave a not-so-rampant Toulouse to lose limply to Embra in the quarters.This season, they cruised through a weak pool (Biarritz, Connacht, Zebre) to qualify as number one seeds for the quarters.

As for Munster, they lifted that years’ Magners League with a win over a shagged-out Leinster in Thomond Park. The emotional public farewell to Paul Derbyshire that day will not be forgotten by anyone who missed it. The following year, they won all six games in a powdery pool, but were disposed of in their citadel by an Ulster side that tackled everything that moved and took their scores, but were by no means a superpower. It was like Ireland’s defeat in Murrayfield this year, with the scoring sequences reversed.

That they got thrashed by the Ospreys in the Pro12 semi-final merely completed the unhappy end to the unhappy Tony McGahan era. Munster fans were glad to see him go, and this year was hoped to be something of a new dawn. Sadly, Munster look, if anything, even more muddled then they did 12 months ago – the desire to play a more expansive game, with forwards carrying and offloading, clashes with an ideology married to muck and bullets, grinding forward play and trench warfare. The players have got more and more confused as time has gone on this season, and their lamentable effort in their 50-burger against Glasgow the other night was hapless at best.

If one looks at the Munster side today, it’s one that is two years into the transition started after the Toulon defeat, but it doesn’t look much better, not yet anyway. The arrival of BJ Botha and the graduation of Donnacha Ryan to the first team means the tight five is probably stronger now, but the Paul O’Connell shaped-hole at the centre of the pack still needs a (fully fit) Paul O’Connell shaped-solution. The back-row is the area of the biggest change, and specifically the flanks. Peter O’Mahony is a fine and talented player, but as a Heineken Cup-level blindside, even a Denis Leamy in the twilight of his too-short career is still a better option, and David Wallace over Tommy O’Donnell/Niall Ronan is a no-brainer. The lack of brawn in the current Munster edition is probably best-illustrated by the change on the flanks – at least if Leamy and Wallace felt like resorting to rumbling, they had the beef and skills to do it, but O’Mahony and O’Donnell, at this end of their careers, rarely dominate games.

In the halves, Conor Murray has matured from Academy graduate to a fine player, and is now undisputed Ireland starter. He still seems to play a little too much to instruction, carrying a lot last year, and box-kicking too much in this years Six Nations. In time, he will grow the experience and confidence to run a game as he sees it. If Ronan O’Gara regains the 10 shirt, it will be to the groans of many Munster fans – Father Time has finally caught up with him, and, as with Ireland, he is playing himself out of the team rapidly. So Murray/Keatley – promising, but down a level on Murray/O’Gara from 2 years ago.

Further out, Munster are fairly similar – Downey/Laulala is a solid centre partnership with a hint of creativity, rather like Warwick/Mafi was, but with the invention outside instead of in. The back three is almost the same, but given Earls is getting over injuries and has zero form, plus Howlett getting on a bit, they are dying out for Simon Zebo to return.

So Munster are a clear level down on the team that lost two years ago, and still very much a work in progress. What of Harlequins? The team that lined out at Saracens last weekend had 11 of the starters, and the exact same spine of Brown, Turner-Hall, Evans, Care, Easter, Robshaw, Robson, Johnston and Marler. Two years on, the team is familiar with silverware and is now confident and experienced.

If the graphs of the two sides were level at the last meeting (which is generous to the Irish side), they have diverged dramatically since. It will take a massive reversal of form and class for Munster to prevail, and it might even be their best European result of all time. Quins have lost three games on the bounce, but only against Saracens were they at full-strength, and there is no disgrace in that.  Munster’s recent form is particularly alarming, with recent thrashings handed out by Treviso and, most recently, Galsgow.  Up until now, most of the focus has been on Munster’s inability to meet the demands of Penney’s wide-wide attacking game, suddenly they look on the point of giving up, with marshmallow tackling  and atrocious linespeed highly conspicuous.

If it weren’t for the suspicion that Munster simply won’t roll over and die, this game has all the appearances of a turkey-shoot – but surely Munster will actually tackle in this match, and will be awoken from their tailspin by the threat of humiliation. If not, it’s truly time to take out the rosary beads.

Kidney Axes ROG

Roy Keane used to say that he always knew that when the end came, it wouldn’t be pretty.  And so it was as Declan Kidney swung the axe and almost certainly ended the test career of Ireland’s most capped player; the divisive, cantankerous, chippy, bullishly self-confident but unquestionably brilliant Ronan O’Gara.

Sport can be cruel in many ways, and watching one of Ireland’s most respected players of all time decline to such an abject level over the last two weeks has not made for pleasant viewing.  It has been obvious for some time that ROG has been in decline, and while his street team of media apologists would have you believe the opposite, this day has been looming since the middle of last season.  We have a few observations on the matter:

1. On rugby terms, it’s the right decision.  Yes, it’s awful for ROG personally to have it end like this: it’s sad that his final act of any significance was a loopy, harebrained crossfield kick that ultimately consigned Ireland to a sorry defeat in Murrayfield.  But there’s no room for sentiment on this one.  It would have been the right decision to bring Madigan into the fold at the start of the Six Nations, and it’s still the right decision now.  To jettison ROG mid-tournament looks awful, but the (Kidney) clock cannot be turned back.  Decisions can only be made for the next game, not the last, so it’s the right decision, however awfully it has been made.

It was, though, the wrong decision to keep him in the 23 since the summer, and for that Kidney should be roundly castigated.  The whole situation is a mess of the coach’s making, succession planning at its absolute worst.  The failure to grasp before now that O’Gara was no longer a test player amounts to a costly blunder.

2. ROG should have retired after the 2011 loss to Wales. The danger of playing on too long is that you sully your legacy.  There will be articles about the end of the ROG era this week, but the ROG era ended with the 2011 World Cup.  His noteworthy contributions to test matches since that dismal quarter-final are… what exactly?  He has not started a game in that time, while Sexton has authoritatively claimed ownership of the shirt.  His tenacity and self-belief are admirable, but it has tipped over into a slightly sad sight over the last two series, when it has been clear he’s no longer capable at this level.  It was the right time to go, and he should have done it. For all those saying ROG deserves to go out on his own terms; well that was his chance and he turned it down.

3. Kidney – the man for 2015.  Or so he’d have you think.  Declan Kidney’s selection policy has swung from archly conservative to ‘throwing in ver yoof’.  It’s hard not to be a touch cynical and see it has him positioning himself as a coach with an eye on the 2015 world cup, presiding over a young team.  A transitional coach, if you will.  It’s like a switch has been flicked.  First the change of captaincy, now he’s thrown ROG over the side of his sinking ship to try and keep it afloat.  While in and of itself it’s the right decision (see number one above) it’s a bit hard to stomach the manner in which Deccie has done business.

4. Madigan is there on merit.  While all the airspace will be taken up by ROG, it shouldn’t be forgotten that his replacement deserves his place in the squad.  He picked up rave reviews for his performance in the untelevised win over the Dragons on Friday night, where he kicked three from four from out wide, and continues a hot streak of form.  He is the form 10 in the country and looks to have the stuff for test rugby, albeit with a weak kicking game from hand.  It’s appeared up to now that he is not the fly-half Kidney is looking for, but his form must count for something.  He deserves his chance, at least off the bench.

5. Remember the good times.  Forget the awful cross-kick and the 10m kicks to touch, and remember ROG as he deserves to be remembered.  The cheeky try against South Africa.  The cross-field kick to Shaggy. The try in the corner in Croker against France.  Converting Shaggy’s try in Twickenham to make it a four point game.  Too many penalties and conversions to mention.  We have also heard, but require confirmation, that he once scored a drop goal of some importance.

6. The Cork Con Mafia can go for a lie down.  If ROG has been one of the greatest ever Irish internationals, he has also been one of the most protected, with an army of media campaigners in place to avoid reference to his bad performances, and remind us of the failings of his rivals.  Right up to this week they were still at it.  The poor fellows must be exhausted, as their task has taken on Sisyphean proportions in recent months.  Take a lie down, chaps, and think of Peter O’Mahony.

The Mystery of the IRFU Succession Rules

Around a year ago, the IRFU announced its ‘succession rules’, whereby it would restrict non-Irish qualified players to one per field position across the provinces, and operate on a ‘one-contract-and-out’ basis.  The idea was to ensure at least two Irish-eligible players were playing first team rugby in each position across the three major provinces.  They were announced to general bafflement among a public that has become deeply loyal to their province of choice.  The IRFU hosted a twitter Q&A session, where they gave infuriatingly vague replies to fans who were wondering what on earth was going on, but failed to generate any goodwill or provide satisfactory responses.  It was one of the biggest PR gaffs the union has made in recent memory, up there with their ticket pricing policy for the November 2010 internationals.

Curiously – or maybe not so curiously – since the initial furore which greeted announcement, we’ve had radio silence on the issue.  Isa Nacewa was allowed to sign a one-year extension, apparently at odds with the rules; keeping him in Leinster until 2014, a year after the rules are apparently meant to come in. And today, Ulster announced Johann Muller was staying until the end of next season.

In the case of Nacewa and, especially, Muller, both are keeping young Irish players out of the team, seemingly at odds with the rules – both might be the highest-profile NIQs in their position, but we simply don’t know if that was a criterion in their contract offer.

Confused?  You’re not the only one.

The quietude around the rules has led people to ask: are they still going ahead?  We’re in the dark as much as anyone else over this.  It would be no surprise if they were quietly folded away and put to bed without any fanfare or announcement.  Another possibility is that the IRFU maintains they’re going ahead, with vigorous affirmations of the importance of adherence, but only enforces them selectively – that is to say, in actuality they don’t enforce them at all, but pretend they do in order to save face.

It looks like this will come to a real head quite soon, as Munster and Ulster’s NIQ tighthead props are making noises about leaving.  Tighthead prop was really the only position the rules were brought in to cater for, because as everyone knows, Mike Ross is the only Irish-qualified prop starting important games for his province, and it’s the only position where Ireland are so dependent on one player.

At Munster, BJ Botha is rumoured to be moving to Toulon, where he has been offered a two-year contract, while Ulster’s John Afoa has mentioned in a recent interview that he plans to return to New Zealand at the end of his contract, which expires in the summer of 2014.

Under the succession rules, Munster would be precluded from recruiting a foreign tighthead for next season, since NIQ players must be replaced by Irish eligible players once their contract has lapsed.  Ulster, similarly, would not be allowed to recruit an NIQ player the following season, once John Afoa departs.  But does anyone really believe the IRFU will hamper the provinces so severely?  It strikes us as unlikely.

The foremost Irish tightheads at Munster and Ulster are Stephen Archer and Declan Fitzpatrick.  Neither would be fit for the purpose of mounting a challenge for the Heineken Cup.  Fitzpatrick can lock a scrum, but is rarely match-fit, while Archer struggles to cope with even moderately technical opponents in the set-piece.  If both provinces are to have aspirations of beating the better French or English sides, some recruitment will be required.

The only Irish-eligible tighthead who looks a remotely plausible signing is Worcester’s Belfast-born John Andress.  Ploughing away in the Worcester front row may not sound like the stuff of greatness, but the Aviva Premiership is a set-piece-heavy league, packed with hardy scrummagers (Andress’ regular opponents in the scrum would include the likes of Soane Tongauiha, Alex Corbisiero, Marcos Ayerza and Joe Marler – not exactly wallflowers).

Andress has had something of a journeyman career so far, but has amassed plenty of gametime since he moved to England.  He made 44 appearances in the Championship for Exeter Chiefs, before moving up a level to the Premiership with Harlequins in 2009.  He made 30 starts for Harlequins over two seasons before returning to the Chiefs, but found his path to the first team blocked on returning.  He’s started 10 games and made eight further appearances from the bench for Worcester this season.  He might find his opportunities slightly more limited in the rest of the season, with Euan Murray having pitched up at Sixways.  That he has never been deemed essential by some fairly mediocre clubs is a mark against him, but his CV is several notches up from that of Archer or Fitzpatrick.

His is a solid body of work, and his career path looks suspiciously similar to that of Mike Ross.  That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be as good as Mike Ross, but at 29, he should be coming into his prime as a scrummager.  If the IRFU do decide to persist with their ill-conceived succession rules, he can expect his value to increase sharply.

But even if Andress is the answer – and there’s no guarantee he would be – there’s only one of him, and two provinces for whom the issue of recruitment is pressing.  If the IRFU is going to go ahead with its ill-advised move, and enact it to the letter, it is going to have to choose between Munster and Ulster and seriously weaken one of them.

Prop recruitment in general has been a mixed bag among the provinces in recent years.  Botha has delivered good value for both Ulster and Munster over five highly productive seasons, while Afoa has been consistently outstanding for Ulster.  Nathan White, as a stop-gap for Leinster and now at Connacht, is another success story.  But then there are the Clint Newlands, Peter Borlases and latterly, Michael Bents, whose careers in Ireland have been stillborn.

Even if Ulster and Munster are given the licence to recruit, there are no guarantees of quality, and competition for the best will be fierce from the Top 14 in particular, where clubs think nothing of having six first-rate props on their books, and rotating them over the season – the best props coming from the Southern Hemisphere will get hoovered up by the French clubs, as will the French ones (obviously) and the Georgians. The English ones aren’t going to come to Ireland. So, essentially, to replace Afoa and Botha with NIQ props will not only break the IRFU’s own rules, but be hugely expensive into the bargain, as we will be competing with Toulon, Clermont and Racing Metro.

Gallic Shrug

There was an air of inevitability about Munster’s five-try qualifying haul on Sunday.  Not even Munster’s most ardent supporters – heck, not even Frankie Sheahan – would claim there was anything miraculous about it, or hold it up against famous last-round wins against Sale or Gloucester.

Why?  Because we’ve become accustomed to the middle tier French rugby clubs capitulating in the latter rounds of the Cup.  When Racing gave up a generous lead at home to Saracens the week before, Leinster’s goose was more or less cooked.  For some – Leinster fans anyway – it resulted in a slightly unsatisfactory finale to the pool stages.  How much more exciting would it have been if Munster really had it put up to them, as Leinster did in Exeter?  That’s not to discredit Munster.  As discussed in Monday’s post, they had their destiny in their own hands and did what they had to do; they deserve their place in the last eight.

The question is, can anything be done to ensure sides remain competitive to the last?  Not really.  Sure, you could try to impose fines on teams for putting out weakened sides, but in the days of heavy squad rotation, how do you define first and second choice players?  On the face of it, it looks unworkable.

And besides, it’s more a question of attitude than names on a team sheet.  Rugby is a game where bodies are put on the line; if one side’s need is greater, they will generally prevail, even if they possess less quality.  As an example, Toulon put out a strong line-up for Saturday’s do-or-go-through-anyway game against Montpellier, but it was clear from the moment Freddie Michalak gave a Gallic shrug and allowed the Montpellier centre to canter over the line for their first try, that their hearts weren’t in it.  The best that could be achieved would be that if the French are to be given concessions as part of the much-discussed tournament restructure, that they are reminded of their responsibilities to uphold the credibility of the competition.

In defence of the French sides, that they were more consistently competitive this year than in any in recent memory.  Clermont and Toulouse will always treat the tournament with respect and Biarritz – although rubbish these days – have a tradition of giving it a go.  Toulon, with their mega-squad, have no excuse for not being competitive, and took advantage of an easy pool to amble through to a home quarter-final.  It was only Montpellier’s second season in the competition, and while their pool was straightforward, they showed terrific commitment throughout and clearly wanted to make a statement, and qualified deservedly.

The performances of Castres and Racing were also committed for the most part.  Castes are notorious for throwing matches on the road, but they won in Glasgow and kept Northampton tryless in Franklin’s Gardens, a result which effectively took the Saints out of the competition.  Racing also won in Scotland, beat Munster at home and looked suitably gutted at the end of their hard-fought defeat to Saracens.  It was only once they were ruled out that they couldn’t be bothered.

If one thing could be done to improve the tournament, it’s a change to the lopsided seeding system, which counts the previous four years of tournament points to determine each side’s place in the rankings.  Four years is too many, and allows the deadwood to hang around for too long.  Cardiff were a top seed this year, which seems farcical.  They were losing semi-finalists four years ago, when Martyn Williams missed a penalty in a shoot-out against Leicester, but not many of the names that played that day are still on their books.  While there is no points system that can account for a loss of players to other clubs, two years’ ranking points appears more appropriate, and if the ranking coefficient included an element of domestic league performance, then all the better.

Regrets, They’ll Have A Few

The champions are out of Europe at the pool stages.  If that sounds pretty ignominious, then it probably is.  Sure, there were mitigating circumstances in a hefty injury list and a tough pool, but them’s the breaks and they weren’t the only team with injured players or good teams to contend with.  It’ll be especially gut-wrenching that the team to edge them out of the knockouts are their arch rivals, Munster, a team they would believe themselves to be better than.  Harlequins will be happier to be facing Munster than a rejuvenated Leinster that has belatedly sparked into life since getting a proper backline on the pitch.  But, hey, that’s Heineken Cup rugby.

Leinster can at least console themselves that they kept up their half of the bargain by securing the 10 match points they needed in the final two rounds.  That they did so in a swashbuckling style reminiscent of the last two seasons is reason enough to believe that they are not a busted flush yet, and that  their premature exit should not be seen as a serious demise.  But to be entering the final rounds relying on the middle-tier French clubs for favours – especially once their own fates have been sealed – is never going to be a recipe for success.  Leinster have only themselves to blame.

While it’s tempting to look at the possibility that they left a few tries out there against both Scarlets and Exeter, in truth the damage was done in rounds one to four.  Again, many will look to the double-header with Clermont, but given the backline Leinster had out in both games (Goodman at 12, and every other player from 11-15 playing out of their best position) and the nature of Clermont’s sense of unfinished business, it is understandable that they should lose both games.  Just one more point would have left Leinster’s fate in their own hands, and the opening week fiasco, where they sleepwalked to a fortuitous, tryless win over an Exeter which conceded seven tries at home to Clermont the following week was the one that got away.  To look at it more thematically, Leinster will rue that a misfiring lineuot proved expensive right through the pool stages.

No such concerns on the face of it for Ulster, but in having to go away to Saracens, they have made their possible passage to the final more difficult than it should have been.  They, too, will have cause for regret, in particular in taking their eye off the ball against Northampton in round four.  Having slaughtered the Saints in Franklin’s Gardens it looks as if Ulster may have got a bit carried away with themselves in the build-up to the return leg, and paid a heavy price.  Even still, a single extra point would have reversed the quarter-final match venue and as such, the awful third quarter in which they allowed Glasgow to dominate in Pool 5 left them one try short of what would have been a crucial bonus point.

By contrast, Munster will reflect that they are happy to be still in the competition after somehow squeezing out of a pool in which they never really impressed.  They can look back on the ten minute salvage operation against Edinburgh at home as the point that made all the difference to their campaign.  With one try on the board after 70 minutes, it looked set to be a disappointing afternoon at Thomond Park, but Paddy Butler’s introduction provided a spark and they manufactured three tries in the dying minutes, against admittedly hapless opposition.  They’re unlikely to do much in the knock-out stages, where the Anglo-French axis look set to dominte, but how Leinster must envy them.

Renaissance Man

Donncha O’Callaghan is the classic workhorse of a rugger team – for Munster and Ireland, he has consistently tackled himself to a standstill, while taking a back seat to the like of Paul O’Connell (and even Micko) when it comes to leadership and taking the team forward.

For a man who is among the most decorated in Irish history (2 HECs, Grand Slam, 2 Lions tours, 90Ireland caps), the general impression is of a follower, a man who needed the Axels and Paulies of this world to step up on his behalf.

This impression has, ironically, been fed by the man who coached him to his finest moments – master mind-bender Deccie. Deccie never tires of telling us how valuable Donncha is to the cause, how we are lucky – nay, blessed – to have not only Paul O’Connell and Micko, but Donncha as well! And his most famous faint praise of O’Callaghan has become the most notorious – that Donncha is in the team for his “unseen work”. We’re not sure what it is either, but it was used to mask declining tackle counts and effectiveness on the ground.

For his continued selection in Irish XVs for the last two years, Donncha has become something of a bête noire on these pages, mocked as Stakhanov – a reference to the way he is inevitably described by all and sundry – the dedicated pack mule who can take a back seat when it comes to decision making and tactics.

Broader skillsets from the likes of Dan Tuohy and Mike McCarthy were ignored for the safe option of Donncha, and it became somewhat of a yardstick for conservatism in selection. Recall as well Devin Toner having to call the lineouts on his debut, and the reason for our frustration becomes clearer.

By the end of last season, O’Callaghan looked a busted flush – short of impact, short of physicality and short of the kind of carrying ability modern locks can bring to the game – he had lost his Munster and Ireland jersey to Donnacha Ryan.

But a strange thing has happened – Rob Penney has come in to Munster with a vague idea of playing a different game than the traditional bish bash bosh they are famed for, and he has had his difficulties in implementation. Paul O’Connell has spent long spells injured and Ronan O’Gara has increasingly resorted to playing an old style kick for territory. The third survivor of the 2006 breakthrough, Donncha, has been a most impressive adherent to the new plan.

O’Callaghan derided himself as “Johnny Robot” for slavishly following coaches instructions, but this is remarkable – a man who rarely strayed more than 1 metre from a ruck regularly pops up on the wing and has even attempted a few offloads. In addition, he has actually upped the stakes physically – carry the ball into contact even slightly too upright, and Donncha will engineer a Munster scrum quicker than you can say “over-used phrase to describe forcing the opposition into a maul and getting the put-in to the resultant scrum”.

What’s more, the famed leadership qualities we assumed weren’t present have begun to assert themselves. In the build-up to the Embra game, Donncha was highly visible in the press telling all who would listen that, for all the grumbling about Rob Penney’s tactical revolution, it was the Munster players who weren’t executing, and blaming the boss was the easy way out. He delivered a powerful message to his underperforming colleagues – that the type of performance seen against Cardiff was simply unacceptable, and the onus was on them to deliver.

Munster have never been short of characters to deliver this kind of message – Jirry, POC, Quinny, Axel or Radge for example – but to see O’Callaghan deliver it was still something of a stunner.

So perhaps his bosses down the years have missed something of a trick when it comes to O’Callaghan, and it took a new broom in Munster to eke out hitherto-unseen leadership qualities. Or maybe he feels he needs to show example to some of his forwards. Or maybe he’s just having an Indian summer and Penney told him to do the presser.

Either way, it’s a most interesting and welcome development.  It’s also in stark contrast to the supposed leadership qualities being brought to bear by the other experienced campaigner in the team.  You guessed it: Radge!  Picked in the team for his wealth of experience, quite what he was doing kicking out at second rows we cannot know.  It wasn’t the first time this season ROG’s attitude towards the outcome of a game has looked somewhat feckless.  It might not be the worst thing for Munster if he is banned from the final pool game, or the Six Nations opener for that matter.

Step Backwards

After the HEC double-headers in December, we thought that Ulster were virtually guaranteed a knock-out slot, Leinster were pretty much gone, and that Munster had a pretty decent shot at a best runners-up slot. They had 11 points in the bag and had upcoming games against Scottish patsies Embra and flouncing Parisians RM92 at home – both glaring try bonus opportunities.

And the try bonus point is most relevant – 19 points looks like it might not be enough, but 21 will almost certainly do it. They managed to get 4 tries at home to Embra, and looked threatening in Paris first time out. Sure, they didn’t come close to the whitewash against Sarries, but hey, it was Saturday Night Fever in Thomond – who wants tries when you can have penalties slotted between the posts through cold foggy air and the tears of the assembled press box in near-deathly silence?

Here’s a problem though – in the aforementioned early rounds, master orchestra conductor, curer of the lepers and Lion-designate Ronan O’Gara (© Conor George) was playing close-ish to the gainline and looking like he was buying into the Rob Penney Barbarimunster masterplan. In the Saracens double-header, he played a little bit further back – but needs must and the 5 points gained were what was required.

But since then, Rog has drifted further and further back to the point were he was almost 15m behind the gainline in the recent Cardiff workout. Sure, his tactical kicking might have been as pinpoint as ever, but who cares when it’s exactly what the opposition want – Cardiff won their lineouts, kept the ball intelligently and won the match at their leisure. How can Munster score tries if their opponents have the ball?

This followed an inability to get a try-scoring bonus point against Ulster’s 2.5th team – another occasion when O’Gara was nearly stepping on Felix Jones’ toes.

How can Munster expect to score 4 tries in 2 successive games without the ball, and with an outhalf who looks like he is no longer even going through the motions of playing the gameplan his coach wants him to? It’s not all O’Gara’s fault of course, but he has virtually full control over his position on the pitch, and he isn’t attacking the line.

It’s far from a home run that Keatley is of the required quality to be the future of the 10 shirt at Munster, but that’s not necessarily the relevant question to be asking; the only important issue is whether Munster have a better chance of beating Edinburgh by four tries with Keatley or O’Gara at 10.  This isn’t necessarily clear-cut, but Keatley is a quick, strong fly-half with a decent running game, as well as being a strong defender.  Against that, ROG is more experienced, a better place kicker and better kicker from hand.  But with tries the requirement, it might be time to lean towards Keatley.  Such a move would inevitibly be met with a media scrum, and Penney is presumably aware of this.  But it’s time for tough calls.

P.S. amid the lengthy debate about where Penney’s vision is leading Munster, we’d be grateful if pundits were more restrained in their use of the phrase ‘return to core Munster values’.  Shane Horgan has been one of the only pundits to resist temptation to fall back on easy, meaningless platitudes, and pointed out on Off The Ball that the fruitless multi-phase attack that yielded no points late in the Saracens game was proof that Munster have to get away from their old game plan.  Certainly, Munster’s attack is lacking, but stuffing the ball up their collective jumper is not going to get it done.