Epic

Ulster did what Egg so emotionally implored them to do, and played the music with vigour on Saturday night – not panicking when 6 points down in the first half, then stepping up the intensity when 10 down in the second – the Ulstermen played with such power and poise that Leicester were simply shut down in a ground in which they hadn’t lost a European game in seven years (we can’t remember who last beat them but it may have involved a heroic 50m kick into driving rain that had Barnesy choking on his Beaujolais), incorporating games against the best in Europe in that period. Chris Henry showed why Joe Schmidt paid such attention to him when Leinster coach, Roger Wilson showed why Darren Cave thinks he is as good as Jamie Heaslip, Ruan Pienaar added the finishing touches and Besty the finesse with the boot.

Every scrap, metre and loose ball was vigorously fought for and the margin of victory was always going to be slim.  Leicester were getting weaker as the game went on, with injuries taking their toll, and Ulster were getting stronger thanks to an impact-stacked bench.  Iain Henderson is arguably among the players of the pool stages without starting a game.  Would 80 minutes be too long for Leicester to hold on or too short for Ulster to get ahead on the scoreboard?

In the end it was long enough for Ulster to manufacture the winning scores and see out the game.  Journeys to greatness are made of such wins – just ask the great Leinster and Munster sides.  Heineken Cups are won not just in the finals themselves but in the heart-stopping landmark away wins that foster belief and togetherness.

It was an epic contest, a classic of the Heineken Cup genre – the first really unforgettable match of this year’s less than vintage tournament.  The Globo Gym-Toulouse game came close but was a bit too boshtastic. In previous years, there have been multiple games like this throughout the pool stages, but the decline in quality of the middle tier has left this years tournament pretty bereft – it took two of the big boys to produce the defining game of the pool stages.

Looking forward from here, Ulster will fancy themselves to beat Globo Gym in front of the new Ravers stands. They won’t be over-represented on Joe Schmidt’s Ireland selections (which will help them keep that store of bitterness going), and have impressive togetherness as a group. The Saracens won’t go away easily though and should not be underestimated, but the idea of shoving Chris Ashton’s swallow dive form last season up his hoop should provide further motivation, as if any were needed.  Sarries aren’t quite the boshers of yore (we’re still calling them Globo Gym though) and have expanded their game this year, recognising that their brand of hoof-and-run was not enough to beat the very best teams.  It’s bringing the best out in them, and in truth they always had players capable of playing a bit: Charlie Hodgson, David Strettle and especially the quicksilver Alex Goode and outside centre Schalk Brits.  He’s an outside centre, right?

[Aside: speaking of Globo Gym, the sight of Rodney Ah Here being mashed by Mako Vunipola, who himself was mashed by Ben Alexander, was rather unedifying to say the least.  His contribution around the park wasn’t too impressive either.  His first two carries saw him shunted backwards and then turned over.  And as one poster on a rugby fan forum said last week ‘he is capable of being equally out of breath after five minutes on both sides of the scrum’. We’d love to know the logic for bringing him into the Ireland squad – maybe his tackle bag holding is even better than Darren Cave’s.]

If the pool stages were a bit humdrum, at least the knockout games are exquisitely poised.  While Gerry is understandably drooling over the prospect of more interprovincial blood-letting a Leinster-Munster semi-final, it’s Toulon who will be happiest with that draw – being home (or in Marseille) in a semi-final is a huge motivator. Leinster will do very well to overcome the absence of the two pillars of their back-to-back HECs, Johnny Sex-bomb and SOB, and Toulon is a very hard place to win. Munster’s pack is possibly the most technically proficient left in the competition, but they are facing a Toulouse side who went to the Globo Gym and faced down a beefy pack – this one will be trench warfare, and it’s even possible Toulouse will try to tackle the marauding Munster forwards, unlike Embra.  It has the makings of a classic match.  Neither side is as good as when they last met in 2008, but both know how to fight to the death.

Likewise, Ulster won’t fear Clermont (or Leicester, in theory) in the Aviva if they negotiate the obstacle course that is the Saracens centre partnership – if that game does come to pass, it will likely come down to Clermont’s mental strength under pressure. It hasn’t been their strongest suit of recent years, and we just can’t pick them to win a big semi-final away from the Michelin.  For all the Clermont-worship that goes on, they still aren’t the world’s greatest team on the road.

So, if we were calling it now, we’d say an Ulster-Toulon final is in prospect, but the knockouts are often like a different tournament – so the usual health warnings apply. In fact, let’s face it, we’re getting miles ahead of ourselves.  The tracks are dry and there is the small matter of a Six Nations in between, so the physical and mental wellbeing of the players can be completely different when April comes around.  Leinster barely scraped out of their group in 2009, but the other side of a Grand Slam they went on to win the Cup.  Let the interprovincial blood-letting battle commence!

Tigers on the Horizon

It’s hard to put the finger on why this Ulster fan is so worried about the upcoming HEC rounds, but the pack being shunted all around Ravers by the Brave and the Faithful last Friday night would be a good place to start – Munster got two tries from the maul, and should probably have had a third. Since the slapdown of a potentially difficult (but in the end not so much) Treviso assignment for 10 group points, they’ve struggled past the Zebras, produced a worse-than-usual performance in their habitual Oar Dee Esh defeat, then scraped home against Munster.

Montpellier might come over with a disinterested B team, and will likely be thoroughly unimpressed with the weather in Belfast, but Ulster still will need a result (of some sort, to be decided after this weekend) in Welford Road. Now Leicester’s form is fairly uninspiring – they got fed a 40-burger by Globo Gym and have 1 loss (Quins) and two draws (Saints, Ooooooooh Bath) in Welford Road this year – but if you turn up without a pack that can compete you’ll struggle.

Without Johann Muller, with Gentlemanly Conduct’s Besty just back, John Afoa seemingly still on holiday mode and Fez still out, Ulster are low on the type of prime beef needed for the kind of #unseenwork that bonus points in Leicester are made of. Ulster will undoubtedly be glad to qualify, particularly after the draw they got, but they can’t shake off the Tigers (that last minute bonus point they got in Ravenhill felt crucial at the time) and a knockout game away from Ravers will feel like a disappointment, especially if it’s the last HEC. The stadium deserves a big game, but the team need to deliver, and, right now, you’d fancy Leicester. Until Ulster actually do it, the team with the history of delivering in these games must get the nod.

Meanwhile, Leinster travel to Castres for the sort of game that players and fans simply dread.  Castres are going well in the Top 14 and won’t get out of their pool in the HEC, so one might expect them to shrug a shoulder at this game, but the ‘spirit of the belltower’ (thank you Bernard Jackman) means they will be competitive at home no matter what.  Leinster fans still have nightmares over the defeat there in December 2008, arguably the province’s nadir and the game which prompted Neil Francis to give the team an unmerciful kicking in his column, replete with ‘ladyboys’ jibes and all.  These matches tend to be grind-a-thons and as a supporter you simply hope to come out the right side on the scoreboard.  Leinster must win or risk letting Northampton sneak ahead of them in the pool.

Munster travel to Gloucester in what is no longer a must-win but rather should-win game.  Glaws’ dire home defeat to Edinburgh has let them off the hook, and even if Munster lose here, a victory at home to Embra in their final pool game will almost certainly qualify them.  A win would go some way to boosting their chances of a home quarter-final, and they should be able to manage it.  They are showing an impressive ability to keep on winning even if they have yet to put in a single really impressive performance this season.  Who’d bet against them continuing the trend, and earning Rob Penney a 12-month contract extension – which seems pretty paltry given the job he has done (see above – top of the league, top of HEC pool withoiut really playing well yet – with limited resources).

That leaves Connacht, who should give the Zebras (another) seeing-to. The big game for them is next week when they must travel to Sarries, essentially with a view to keeping the score down.  Don’t say it too loudly, but Sarries have attempted to broaden their game this season and have racked up a bucketload of tries, and Connacht are just the sort of team they will seek to fillet with a blend of sledgehammer power and incisive running.  Their backline – containing the likes of Alex Goode and Chris Ashton – always looked like it could be a threat if let off the leash a little bit, and now it’s starting to happen.  Connacht will presumably have the patronising words of Stephen Jones ringing in their ears as they take the pitch.  Another performance in the vein of the Toulouse game will be required to emerge with a respectable scoreline.

Lots done. More to do

At this two-thirds stage of the last-ever HEC (in this form anyway), the Irish provinces are all in a reasonable position, and Ulster are best placed of the lot. That’s not to say they’ll all be feeling happy about the opening four games, and Leinster in particular will be pretty pissed off they lost at home to the No-Pressure-On-Them edition of the Northampton Saints; and that insipid performance in front of both fans in Murrayfield will likely cost Munster a home quarter-final, but with three wins both are expected to qualify.

Leinster would have looked at their trips to the Hairsprays and Franklin’s Gardens as odds-against trips – and the results and performances were excellent. The flip side has been the rubbish home form, which is a particular worry ahead of the Ospreys game. The last-minute concession of their bonus point against the Saints might come back to haunt them, particularly if it ends up consigning them to a trip to Toulon or Clermont.

In Munster, they will be hyping up talking about JJ Hanrahan’s try for a while to come, but it got them out of jail after a pretty average performance and a systemic defensive meltdown at the worst possible moment. But a win is a win, and it feels even better when it’s in France. But because of the aforementioned defeat to Embra, they’ll need to win in Kingsholm to even have a chance of a home quarter. It’s been done four times in the Premiership this season, by such luminaries as Sale Sharks, Wasps and Exeter, and once by Embra, so Munster shouldn’t travel in fear, and really should be able to navigate that trip. A low seeding and a trip to France might beckon, but that’s the stuff tears are made of, so how bad.

Up north, Ulster will bask in the glow of their 100% record over Christmas. Problem is, with Leicester’s win in Montpellier, they’ll probably need a bonus point in Welford Road (while losing by less than six) to get through, something that proved beyond them two seasons ago. If they don’t win the pool, they should still qualify, but by our reckoning they’ll be playing for home advantage in the next round. Incentive to give it a lash for sure, and they are much better than they were two years ago.  However cloudy the future of the competition, Leicester will play every game they face at full throttle, and their last-minute victory was tribute to their never say die attitude. They are a worthy adversary, and have much to admire. Even though they haven’t won the pot in 11 years, they have been eliminated by the eventual winners five times, the runners-up once, and big-game bottlers Clermont twice – if Ulster can win this pool, they are contenders for the trophy.

As for the province we get most-accused of being biased against, Connacht can retire from the HEC happy that they have their memory to dine out on for years to come. They’ve had quite a few oh-so-nears away from home in their few seasons in the elite competition, and its well-deserved. Some of the minnows add nothing (looking at you Zebroni), but Connacht have been consistently competitive and the Sportsground has translated well to games with big teams, and Saracens.

Predictions for qualifier rankings:

  1. Toulouse
  2. Ulster
  3. Toulon
  4. Clermont
  5. Munster
  6. Leinster
  7. Leicester
  8. Globo Gym

Now that that’s all gone, we have to talk about Leinster. A most disappointing and worrying performance – the last-minute withdrawal of Sean O’Brien left them without any effective carriers and the Saints managed to tackle Leinster backwards almost every time. When the Saints ambushed Ulster in similar fashion last year, they produced the physical template that Globo Gym used to administer the knockout blow in the quarters. Leinster better hope that they have O’Brien and Cian Healy fit for any trip to France in the knockouts, or it’s curtains.

Still, they nearly won it right at the end. When Kahn Fotuali’i sacrificed a penalty advantage to drop a goal with over a minute left on the clock, we smelled a mistake. All the Saints needed to do was go through a few more phases, then take the full minute to kick a penalty and the game was won. The decision to nick the drop gave Leinster the final chance they needed and they were incredibly close to punishing Fotuali’i for it. Small things add up at the highest level, and the likes of Leicester, Leinster, Munster, Toulon, Toulouse would never allow their opponents another chance in such situations.

Two More Years. Or Maybe Just One.

Rob Penney’s contract is up for renewal at the end of the season, and it would appear that his getting a new one is far from a done deal.  Shane Horgan and Liam Toland were of the opinion on the recent Second Captains podcast that, ridiculous though it may sound, the double header against Perpignan would go a long way to deciding whether he got one or not.  That seems a bit short-termist to us as it won’t even seal the fate of Munster in the Heineken Cup with the probably pivotal trip to Kingsholm still to come.

It looks to us to be an erroneous decision not to renew his contract, though we’d be interested to get Munster fans’ take on it.  Penney is halfway through a pretty thorough rebuilding job and is trying to establish a new playing identity around which Munster can build a sustainable future.  No longer in possession of a juggernaut pack and corner-dominating fly-half, this Munster vintage’s strengths lie in their strike runners out wide, Keith Earls, Simon Zebo and, more fitfully, Felix Jones.  And don’t forget that Peter O’Mahony played on the wing in an AIL final.  Joking aside, the likes of O’Mahony and Tommy O’Donnell are also best served getting the ball a bit further out from the ruck and Conor Murray has the skills to get them the ball there.  It all signals a group of players best served by moving the point of attack.

Unfortunately it hasn’t always been well implemented and Shane Horgan, a man who knows a thing or two about back play, was particularly scathing of the lateral nature of much of Munster’s attack.  They want to move it wide, but just can’t seem to get forward in doing so.  It’s all side-to-side and no one straightening the line or commiting defenders.  At times, the apparently simple act of passing in front of the player running onto the ball has proved too difficult.

Recruiting quality centres has been an issue for Munster as far back as we can remember and remains one today.  Casey Laulala has a streak of genius in him but Munster haven’t really been able to get on his wavelength.  His unpredictability at times appears to baffle his team-mates as much as opponents.  It’s an indictment of the coaching staff that they haven’t made more of his ability. If he was at Leinster, we’d imagine Sean Cronin and Sean O’Brien would track his lines as if tied to him by invisible ropes.

Lots of teething problems then, but results have been decent (and better than in the previous regime, at least at European level).  Munster went deeper in the Heineken Cup than any other Irish province last season and almost made the final in improbable circumstances.  It’s too easy to buy the narrative that O’Connell and O’Gara took the team in a new (or should that be old?) direction for the rousing performances in the Stoop and Bordeaux, and it’s one we don’t really buy.  The win in the Stoop was Penney-ball as it should be played, and it’s no surprise that it coincided with James Downey having his best match for Munster and team-mates suddenly becoming alive to the possibilities of playing off Laulala.  Some of the performances in the Pro12 were beyond dreadful and a sixth place finish was poor, but this season Munster have turned that around and sit on top of the log.

This year’s Heineken Cup has yet to see Munster hit top gear and the loss to Edinburgh was careless, but it’s far from beyond rescuing.  Gloucester and Perpignan are eminently beatable on the road, and the French seem utterly disinterested in the zombie HEC – this year’s pot is there for the taking.

It’s easy to forget just how shambolic things were when he arrived.  Munster had been left in a curious no-man’s land by McGahan’s half-baked tactics, and Penney had a job in restoring confidence to some players.  The obvious example is Conor Murray, whose early promise had been derailed by McGahan’s intention of deploying him as a fourth backrow.  Under Penney he has been able to get his natural rhythm going again, and has emerged as an elite player.

Penney’s tenure has the looks of a job half-done and it would seem strange to pull the rug from him now.  Did Munster really expect to turn things around more emphatically than this?   And if they do replace him, do they bring in someone to continue in a similar direction, or someone to start again?  Penney spoke in his first few months about how when you change approach you can find yourself ‘un the put’, but when you emerge from the put you find yourself in a better place than you ever were before.  Another change of direction now and Munster may find themselves struggling to ever emerge from the put.

He came on board with a reputation from the Crusaders of bringing younger players through the academy into Super Rugby (including the new world POTY), and in his time Munster havebrought through to the first team the likes of James Cronin, Paddy Butler, Tommy O’Donnell and JJ Hanrahan. The likes of Sherry, Archer, O’Mahony, Zebo and Murray have improved under his charge as well.

Munster fans seem mostly, if a little begrudgingly, on board with Project Penney – the pack just isn’t there to play the type of 10-man dross Frankie and co. want to see. On the other hand, Simon Mannix doesn’t seem to be having much impact – perhaps a shake-up of the coaching ticket, bringing in a backs coach of some repute, is the way forward. Don’t suppose Eddie has tired of blogging and wants to get that tracksuit back on?

Joking aside (for now), is finance a factor? Penney came with a big reputation and was unlikely to be cheap, and Munster are bleeding money like an Irish bank – do they just need to save a bit of cash? It would seem like a false economy, but who knows. A big name to replace Laulala for next season is unlikely, and more development from within is surely the way to go – Penney is the man for that in our eyes. If we are worried about tying him down with the HEC on the chopping block, give him one more year – he deserves it.

Bonanza!

If indeed the Heineken Cup is to be recast as a tin-pot version next season, we’ll miss weekends like this one.  An absolute bonanza for Irish rugby, topped off by the most remarkable result in Connacht’s history.  Leinster were entitled to think the Monday headlines would be given over to them, but they were upstaged.  It goes down as arguably the biggest shock in Heineken Cup history.  While Toulouse are not the force of yore, they’re still pretty good.  They beat Saracens away in the previous round and are second in the Top Quatorze.  Connacht had been in the midst of a horrendous streak and are below Zebre in the Pro12 log.  Where the hell did they pull this from?  Connacht-watchers might have expected them to use the away game as a mission in damage control, before dialling up the intensity in the Sportsground.  But Connacht cleary had other ideas.  They’ve taken everyone, perhaps even themselves, by surprise.

To put some context in that result, it’s only about two generations of Irish rugby since celebrity Munster fan Mick Galwey stood under the posts in Toulouse imploring the lads to keep it to 50. Back then, at the dawn of professionalism (and the HEC), Munster were about as good as it got in Ireland, and they couldn’t keep the score below 50. Now, Ireland’s weakest province (please don’t be offended) can go there and win. That is incredible.

The question – as always – is whether they can back this up.  Asking them to beat Toulouse a second time in a row might be a bit much to ask, but it should at least give them the belief to get some wins in the Pro12 and work their way off the basement place in the league.  Their star turn appears to be scrum half Kieran Marmion, their busy scrum-half who was unlucky to miss out on a debut cap this autumn.  He could come into consideration in the Six Nations but those who watched Leinster on saturday will have noted that Eoin Reddan looked like a sort of rugby genius.

Which brings us to Leinster, who were superb.  It’s worth rewinding to October, when we put up a couple of posts expressing concerns over the direction in which Matt O’Connor was bringing Leinster.  Thankfully, we left room for an optimistic scenario:

“The optimistic scenario is that Leinster are still operating with a patched-up backline and once O’Driscoll and Fitzgerald – who looked very threatening when he came on – are fully restored to the team that there will be more emphasis on attack and putting the ball through the hands.  In the meantime, O’Connor has tightened up a defence that was more than a little creaky last season, and that focus will begin to shift to attacking and Leinster’s fabled gainline-passing.  One hopes Ian Madigan will be trusted to do some of the playmaking – after all, he’s awfully good at it when given the chance.”

Well, thank heavens for small mercies, because it looks to have come to pass.  The rugby played by Leinster against Northampton looked suspiciously like Schmidt-ball, with an emphasis on gainline passing, varied attacking patterns with inside-ball and wide passing mixed to devastating effect, as well as an almost feral approach to clear-out with those arriving at the ruck driving beyond the ball.  Throw in exemplary ball presentation and it was a near-perfect performance.  It all combined to serve up Eoin Reddan with silver-platter-ball, with which the flaws in his game vanish into the ether and he appears world class.  His speed of thought and deed were too much for the bewildered Saints. Mind you, we’ve said before that these Saints are no-one’s barometer of manliness – this is the third successive occasion at the Gardens where an Irish province has left with 5 points.

What’s remarkable is how in the space of a couple of weeks all half-empty glasses are suddenly brimming over.  After the Australia game all was miserable in the heart of Irish rugby.  Now, options appear everywhere.  Rhys Ruddock looks like yet another – another! – option in the backrow, playing as if to the manor born.  Rob Kearney is looking like his old self.  Gordon D’arcy has gone from a bust to a boom.  Luke Fitzgerald is back!  Keith Earls is back among the tries.  Some excitable fans were even calling for Sean Cronin to start ahead of Rory Best.

Up in Ulster, Paddy Jackson looks like a proper outhalf – his development since his harrowing Ireland experiences in March has been excellent, and he now takes on more of the game management from Ruan Pienaar. And, speaking of Ulster, when a 7-try romp over a team that has given Ulster problems in the past becomes a footnote, something must be going right, even allowing for the relegation of Ulster in Irish rugby minds (should we call this the “Cave Factor” going forward?).

PS. While getting annoyed about celebrity Globo Gym fan Stephen Jones is about as futile as it gets, we must take issue with his latest.  We won’t even go into the laughably uncharitable tone of his Northampton-Leinster write up, but his assertion that refereeing outside England is ‘terrifyingly bad’, with reference to Nigel Owens, who refereed this game, was so far wide of the mark as to be abhorrent.  For a start, the example he cited was just plain wrong.  He claimed Owens didn’t see the miles-forward pass by Cronin, but Owens could clearly be heard saying ‘we’ll go back and check it’ as Luke Fitzgerald was jogging over the line.  And as if it needs saying, Nigel Owens is widely, and rightly, regarded as the best official in world rugby (not best-looking mind, there are some things Steve Walsh just won’t lose).  Still, though, perhaps it’s reassuring: with Jones no longer able to claim a natural superiority for the English clubs over the Irish provinces, he has now turned trained his wobbly aim on the Pro12 referees.  Deary me, what an unedifying sight it is.

Y’know, Rugby Matches and That

What’s all this, then?  Actual rugby matches between provincial and club sides throughout Ireland, Scotland, Wales, England, Italy and France?  Sounds like an intriguing prospect.  This lark might even catch on.  Northampton vs. Leinster?  Perpignan vs. Munster?!  This sounds bloody fantastic.  We want MORE of this sort of thing.  Certainly not less of it anyway.  Or some diluted version involving the Portuguese team (‘Except you Julian Bardy, the only player anyone has heard of, you have to play for Clermont’) making up the numbers.

It’ll be a merciful relief to get back to the reliably invigorating business of the Heineken Cup.  The preliminary rounds seem so long ago at this stage, with the November series and the endless wranglings in the interim, it almost requires an effort to remember exactly how it’s all poised.  Did Munster really lose in Edinburgh?  Good Lord, they did!  And what a result from Ulster to sack Montpellier on their own turf.  Leinster find themselves two-from-two and Connacht have a win over Zebre and ran Saracens to the last play in their first game, prompting a hilarious tweet from Stephen Jones trying to convince everyone – including himself, presumably – that it was a comfortable win for Globo Gym against the ‘non-elite’ Connacht.  How quaint all that posturing seems now.

All of which brings us to the glorious double headers, often the highpoint of the calendar.  Is there any fresh way to say they often decide the outcome of the pool?  Probably not, but who cares – they do.  You can cough up a cheap loss in the first two rounds, but only if you atone for it here.  The good people at ERC, or Sky, or wherever these things are decided by tend to orchestrate the schedule so the two big boys in each pool cross paths in the back-to-backs, so winning both legs isn’t always a requirement, and simply coming out on top in match points is often enough.

That’s certainly the case with Leinster, who have had a curious season so far.  Having won in Ospreys, they made heavy weather of Castres at home but the pool qualifier will come from this match-up in any case.  A bonus point on the road will be enough to keep Leinster in the hunt, providing they can win at home.  Northampton can be odd, though.  Last year they surrendered meekly at home to Ulster, apparently sealing their fate, before improbably turning the tables in Ravenhill of all places.  Ben Foden’s injured though, and he provides their creative spark.  Over to you, Courtney Lawes, to inflict the damage.

Munster have a different set of parameters.  They arguably need to win both games, having lost to Edinburgh in a disastrous opening match.  They have the home leg first in what has come to be known as – thanks Gerry – the Sunday mass slot.  It’s often lamented, but we have few memories of them playing particularly badly in it and they should have the goods to beat Perpignan in Thomond Park with a bit to spare.  The acid test will be trying to go down to the Aime Geral and getting a win.  It’s a daunting stadium, but Perpignan themselves don’t intimidate too many teams these days; they currently lie 9th in the Top 14 and Munster are certainly capable of winning there.  Last time they went there nobody fancied them at all, but they were rampant.  Tomas O’Leary was on fire and Donnacha Ryan came off the bench to announce his talent on the big stage. Perpignan have a monstrous pack and a wonderfully creative outhalf, but, of all the French teams in the HEC, they are probably the one you would want.

Ulster have the easier part of their assignment.  They’re in a great position after beating Montpellier, and should be looking for nine points as a minimum return against a Treviso side that hasn’t really picked up where they left off last season. The natty Italians have a habit of making life awkward for Ulster, but got spanked in Ravers earlier this year – Ulster will be pretty confident of snagging 5 points on Saturday, and should have the momentum to grind out a win away. Those 9 points should more or less wrap up a home quarter-final … assuming no flakes like last season’s home loss to the Saints.

And don’t forget Connacht, who play Toulouse, who aren’t quite the – yaswnsville – ‘aristocrats of Europe’ these days, although they did win away to Saracens, which has seen them installed as favourites to win their group.  Connacht will struggle in the away tie, but will certainly be targeting a rousing performance at the Sportsground.  It’ll be Toulouse’s second visit to the dog track, but the hope that the less than salubrious surroundings will put the Toulousains off their stride proved hopelessly wide of the mark on their first, and Connact – enduring a pretty hopeless season and rock bottom of the Pro12 as it stands – will be in need of some sort of miracle to come out with a win.

Dead Parrot Sketch

So, its come to this. The French clubs are back in the fold, helped by a shove from the union, their long-term intentions as unclear as ever – they said the RCC fiasco was a way for them to get what they wanted, but we aren’t sure what they actually want.

  • More money? Seems unlikely – French clubs earn more at home. It would be nice, but hardly a reason to join McCafferty’s revolution. Unless its all about permanently de-stabilizing Europe – that would earn them more money – see option 3 below.
  • Less Rabo teams? Well, the structure sans les Rosbifs is apparently the entire Rabo league, 6 Frenchies and 2 composite whipping boys from Spain and Portugal, with the Amlin Vase gone. Pretty unsuccessful way to make qualification more meritocratic (should that be “meritocratic”? Not sure)
  • Top16? This is what we think. Discredit and destabilize Europe enough that a Top16 becomes a safety line for French clubs. Playing the long game

With the pliant UK media going as overboard as ever (the Grauniad didn’t report on the French clubs leaving on Thursday, then headlined it on Friday with “French U-turn jeopardises European rugby” – yeah, its the French who have done the jeopardising…), PR have air cover for their intransigence, with little public questioning of their strategy and long-term ambitions (bar Martyn Thomas calling for McCafferty’s head on a plate). And little detail  on the minutiae of the BT contract either.

The increasingly woeful utterances by PR are an embarrassment to English rugby:

  • Its us and the French!
  • Its us and the Welsh!
  • Its us and the South Africans!
  • Its us and … er … financial oblivion!

Its basically the Dead Parrot Sketch – this RCC is very much alive sir!

McCafferty’s latest is to insist the English aren’t coming back and is being reduced to saying the Premiership will be better as teams can play all their players instead of saving them for Europe (I thought it was only Rabo clubs that could do this?).  The risk now is the unhappy Welsh regions actually try and force their unions hand and try and join an expanded Premiership – its what they want, and it might actually make them financially viable.

The situation is still pretty fluid – a HEC with 12 Rabo teams and some PIGS seems unlikely to work, and PR aren’t going to go away. PR aren’t completely isolated yet, the RFU are reluctantly yoked to them, and the Welsh clubs are enthusiastic about games against English clubs. Bottom line for Ireland – short of the English coming back to the fold unconditionally, nothing is good news.

Its unclear how European club rugby will look in 5 years, but if there is a Top16 and some Welsh clubs in the Premiership, Irish rugby will struggle massively – Eddie wrote a nice piece on the questionable long-term benefits of Irish provinces dominating the Pro12. The HEC has been a stunning success in the last decade, but, paradoxically, that has alerted the English and French to the market for more and higher-quality rugby. If you can’t beat the Irish provinces on the pitch, why not remove their lifeline to top-class rugby and tempt the players to join your clubs?

The parallels with soccer in the 1990s are increasing – the governing bodies never directly conceded to a European super league, but the clubs pushed the envelope so far on Champions League expansion, they got one by proxy. The RFU and WRU can’t ignore the next tier of rugby in England and Wales – the Great Schism of nearly 120 years ago is still hard-wired into rugby union administration (recall professionalism was conceded to avoid loss of control 100 years after the first schism) and splits will be avoided at all costs.

This isn’t really about the HEC, its about power and money – the bell might have been rung on the HEC, and, as Eddie would say, you can’t un-ring it. The prospect of expanded French and Anglo-Welsh competitions might have moved a little closer – lets hope the Irish don’t end up relying on the Scots, Italians and the rest of Europe for games. We’re no closer to a long-term resolution, but the danger signals for Ireland remain at DEFCON 1.

Plus ca change

Jeremy Guscott yesterday revealed that he thinks interprovincial rivalries, as well as a lack of self-belief, have hindered Ireland. It’s all well and good to say the corpulent one has no idea what he is talking about, but it’s an interesting kite to fly, not least because most people had assumed the occasinally spiteful atmosphere between Leinster and Munster (for it can only be they to whom he is refering) had calmed down a little bit in recent years.  Guscott, the owner of several silk scarves, also observed that he didn’t think the entire group ‘were 100% behind some of the coaches’.  Some?  That can only be with reference to Declan Kidney and in particular that the Leinster players weren’t especially on message with his brand of rugby.

There’s more than a little truth to both points; certainly to look at Ireland in recent years, they haven’t always appeared a team playing as if their lives depend on it.  How many times have they sleepwalked into a series only to be cajoled into action in subsequent games by their wounded pride?   Certainly, when Leinster were cutting a dash on their way to back to back Heineken Cups under Joe Schmidt’s energising coaching, the body language of the players suggested they were weary and uninspired trying to execute Kidney’s more mundane gameplan.  In one interview with Matt Cooper on Newstalk Radio, Johnny Sexton was at pains to point out that what worked so well for Leinster might not have the same effect at test level so he was happy to play a different way for Ireland.  Unfortunately, his tone was a giveaway, suggesting he was trying to convince himself as much as anyone.

Then there’s the Ulster players who always appear to draw the short straw come selection time – up to and including this November series (for the majority of the game we won’t be discussing for a while, Tommy Bowe was the only Ulsterman on the field).  Men such as Rory Best and Stephen Ferris know of no way of playing other than at full tilt, but this Ulster group have a chippy air about them, and it would be no surprise if they too harboured grievances against management (current and previous) for the manner in which their colleagues appear to consistently miss out on selection.

Since Rob Kearney and the famous Enfield air-clearing, it’s been assumed that the Munster-Leinster divide has been successfully bridged and the longstanding issues put to bed.  However, such assumptions are perhaps premature.  The Enfield meeting is now five years into the past and much of the playing squad has changed in the meantime.  The Munster-Leinster rivalry may not be quite at the white-hot level when Felipe Contepomi was around or in the 2010 aftermath of the great power-shift, but it remains spicy.  Who knows if, privately, some of the Leinster players still harbour resentment over the POC-Dave Kearney incident last season, for example??

Johnny Sexton’s autobiography certainly hints at something that would imply the old rifts were still around.  He describes how several (presumably Munster) players commiserated ROG on getting dropped, but didn’t extend their congratulations to him on getting selected.  He said he knew there were certain players that he, more or less, couldn’t talk to in the squad, and this contributed to a pressurised environment in his early test career.  Does that sound like a united squad, with provincial alliances put to the side for teh greater good?  Not to us anyway. Maybe, just as Deccie did early in his Ireland coaching career, Schmidty needs to think about some way to get everything on the table and try and unite the group.

Scapegoat!

If there is one man in Ireland who its easy to dump blame on, it’s Tom Court. Court joined Ulster in 2006, aged 26, with a little bit of Super Rugby experience. Back then, he played both sides, but ended up specializing on the loosehead side, and has blossomed (if that is the right word) into a very competent and useful player. He has been one of the standout looseheads in the last few years of Heineken rugby and has been a major factor in Ulster’s pack becoming the best in the Pro12.

He has wracked up a few Ireland caps as well – 32 to date – and got a Lions call-up, albeit a fortuitous one. But Court’s international career will be remembered for one thing – the demolition of our scrum at Twickers in 2012 when he came off the bench and played out of position. This narrative is hugely unfair – Court had soldiered manfully, a diligent filler-inner, providing cover from the bench for both sides of the scrum when needed, yet got dumped on when he needed support.

In a way it was understandable – Court is Australian and you won’t get anyone building him up in the media or pencilling him into the team, especially ahead of a domestic-born yeoman who agent is prominent on certain TV outlets. The man himself was dropped out of the Irish 23 for last years Six Nations for Dave Kilcoyne, but came right back in when DJ Church was on the naughty step – Kilcoyne might have been the better impact sub, but Court was clearly the better man to start.

And now Court is on his way and has joined Reading Samoa (we’ll have to stop calling them that – they are Irish-ing up to the max with iHumph, TOL, Jamie Hagan and now Court) on a 3-year contract. Our feeling is that Humph wasn’t for budging and for a man of his vintage (he turned 33 earlier this month), three years is a good deal, but it fits with how his Irish career has gone – and we wonder will Ulster not know what they had until it’s gone.

So where does it leave Ulster? And what about Ireland? Ulster first – they have two looseheads behind Court – Calum Black and Paddy McAlister. McAlister would be the better-known and was certainly the better prospect, but hasn’t returned from injury since coming on in the HEC final in 2012. Calum Black has stepped in and has done ok, without troubling Court. It would be fair to say neither are mapped by Joe Schmidt at present.

Which brings us on to Ireland. Here is how we would see the rankings of internationally mapped Irish looseheads right now:

  1. DJ Church. No competition
  2. Jack McGrath. Vaulted Killer Davecoyne in the squad pecking order due to some impressive performance this season, and was MOTM on his debut (albeit slightly romantically from Wardy – we’d have picked the much-maligned/warrior-who-never-takes-a-backward-step – delete as per prvincial leanings appropriate – POM).  Appears to be second in command.
  3. Tom Court. Sure, he might be easy to drop, but remains arguably the second best scrummaging loosehead against all but the most technical opponents.  Still in the picture.
  4. Dave Kilcoyne. The well-connected Munsterman did a good job for Ireland off the bench last year and looked to be progressing nicely, but hasn’t started the season as well. You probably haven’t heard, but Frankie is his agent.
  5. James Cronin. Highly exciting youngster, who impressed in a high profile cameo against Leinster. It will be interesting to see how he finishes the season – will he take Killer’s shirt?
  6. Marcus Horan. Wait, off that, Deccie has gone

So, as of next season, the odd man out Court will be sunning himself in Lahn. Well, in Reading. Which will leave the best four looseheads in Ireland playing in Munster and Leinster. If this were Australia, and the best four looseheads (I know, right, Australia having FOUR whole looseheads is a bit of a laugh, but bear with us) were playing at the Reds and the Brumbies, one of them would just be told, in no uncertain terms, he was a Waratah now.

The IRFU have talked a good game to date about the next step after banishing foreigners from rugger was to spread talent through the provinces better, most recently in Cummiskey’s uncharacteristically excellent interview in the Irish Times excellent November rugger magazine last week. Time to see if they will put their money where their mouth is. Peter Nucifora, if it is actually he, might have an input here too – and he probably won’t be recommending queueing them up in Munster and Leinster.

We think / have been told that while Healy and McGrath are contracted through next year, both Munstermen will be out of contract at the end of the year – Cronin will surely enjoy an upgrade on whatever he is on now if his upward curve continues, but how would Frankie feel about his other client being offered, say, a central contract … with Ulster. Can you imagine Dave Kilcoyne fitting in in Belfast? With Munster currently in some financial woe, perhaps that might be his best option. Unless he goes to London Irish too.

In a Hole

Three years ago, in this same Heineken Cup weekend, Munster scored a last minute try through Sam Tuitupoooooooooooooooooohh to secure a losing bonus point away to London Oirish. Gerry scoffed at any idea that Oirish had anything to celebrate, saying Munster’s losing bonus point was all that mattered. The more discerning of us worried that Munster had just lost their easiest away game, and with four wins being the minimum required for qualification, they were in a little bit of trouble.

One year ago, Munster lost in Paris to toffs Racing Metro, after a horrible ending in which they contrived to lose a game they had won – the aftermath focused on Conor Murray’s decision-making under pressure and wondered about Munster’s ability to dig out qualification from a tricky pool containing Globo Gym and the previous season’s surprise package Embra.

In the event, the sceptics were right three years ago, as Munster slumped to grim defeats in Ospreys (Adam Jones was man of the match without touching the pill) and Toulon (the lowest point in Munster’s Eurodysseys). Last year, Murray grew from his experience, and Munster scored easy wins over Embra and an epic Saturday night teary classic against a humbled Saracens to qualify for the knockouts, where they managed an even more epic pair of performances.

So which way will Munster go this year? Is this 2010 or 2012? The answer depends quite a bit on their outhalf.

The similarities with three years ago are hard to escape – Embra are an average side (at best), who mugged a complacent Munster, but they will struggle to win another game in this pool. To qualify, Munster will need to win either in Gloucester (easier, but Glaws are tough to knock off in Kingsholm) or Perpignan (like all French teams, a tough nugget on their home turf) – but then again, they have won in both venues in the recent past, albeit with an almost completely different XV. They should have the recovered Peter O’Mahony available – the backrow were swarmed all day, and POM’s aggression and attitude were sorely missed – and also Tommy O’Donnell, for the latter games at least.

Conor Murray looks a different player from 12 months ago – he is the creative heartbeat of this side and a key leader (Aside: why oh why aren’t the IRFU amenable to discussing contracts before the November internationals – this guy should be locked down for many years on whatever money he wants before Toulouse come calling). For Casey Laulala’s try, he ignored his captain, totem-pole behemoth Paulie O’Connell to go for a player in a better position. One of Munster and Ireland’s weaker suits of recent years has been when O’Connell’s rumbles into contact, gaining 70cm, necessitating the likes of O’Mahony and Heaslip (for Ireland; dream on Munster fans) to spend time clearing out rucks. It’s O’Connell’s role to call passes to himself, but it’s the scrum-half’s job to go elsewhere as O’Connell is an average carrier. To correctly ignore a man like O’Connell in a clutch situation shows maturity and impressive game-management.

The problem is outside him. If Ronan O’Gara was playing in that game, Munster would have won. Rog knew what was required to win filthy away games in Europe when your colleagues aren’t playing well (this is also the major input to Leinster’s success with Johnny Sexton that Ian Madigan will struggle to replace) – Ian Keatley isn’t there yet. The natives have been calling for JJ Hanrahan to be given the reins, but Hanrahan’s cameo appearance on Saturday showed how raw he still is at this level.  Given the predicament Munster find themselves in, it’s likely to be the safe option of Keatley used in the latter (crucial) games.

This one will be on Keatley. Does he have the game management skills to win in Gloucester or Perpignan? He will have one of Europe’s best scrum-halves inside him, and a more effective backrow unit, but he will still need to do it himself. One feels this campaign may come close to defining his future with Munster – if he pulls it off from here, he suddenly looks more than just a temporary placeholder for a popular youngster.

If we were made to call it, we think they might have blown it – in 2012, a bonus point defeat was the baseline score for the Racing Metro game. Munster had two games against Embra ahead to fill their boots. This time, they don’t, and that makes it feel more like 2010. Let us hope we are wrong, but we don’t see Keatley being at the level required to pilot his team to wins in Kingsholm or the Aime Giral. But hey – that’s professional sport, and Keatley will have longed for an opportunity like this to prove himself. Over to you, Ian!