2012/13 Season Preview: Munster

The new season approacheth!  We’re going to start off by looking at Munster.   An infinitely fascinating season awaits.  New coach, new players and hopefully a new era for the men in red.

Last Season: on the face of it, not bad. Top of their HEC group with 6 from 6 (we think, although we haven’t heard in a while – perhaps one of our Munster friends can confirm) and 3rd in the Pro12. A gut-wrenching defeat to Ulster in the HEC quarters confirmed Munster’s slippage in the pecking order, and a frightful beating from the Ospreys finished what Toulon started last year – the end of Generation Ligind.

Unfortunately, by the standards set by GL, this was a disappointing season, especially due to the nature of the defeats. Also, Leinster and Ulster contesting the HEC final didn’t improve southern moods.

Out: Ludd McGahan (coach – to Wallabies); Tomas O’Leary (London Irish); Leamy, Micko, Fla, Wally (retired), Yellow Card Magnet Lifeimi Mafi (some crowd of boshers in France)

In: Rob Penney (coach – Canterbury); Oooooooooooooooohh James Downey (Northampton); Casey Laulala (Cardiff); CJ Stander (Springbok underage flanker bosh factory), Sean Dougall (Rotherham)

All change at Munster. The embers of Generation Ligind which flickered out in Toulon have been blown away by the Osprey and Ulster winds of change. Since Toulon we’ve seen the exits (mostly to retirement) of Jirry, John Hayes, Micko, Denis Leamy, Wally, Ian Dowling, Barry Murphy and Tomas O’Leary and the exit from top class rugger of Marcus Horan, Strings and Stakhanov. Paul O’Connell is still going strong, but Ronan O’Gara’s form in the second half of the season was the worst he had shown in a red shirt in over a decade. Of the ligindary imports, Mafi has gone and Dougie Howlett turns 34 next month and is returning from a major injury. Add in the uncertainty over Felix Jones’ return to top form and you’ve virtually lost a first choice XV in 18 months.

The boss has gone too – Tony McGahan joining Dingo Deans team at Club Qantas Wallaby. Despite calls for a southern hemisphere big name like Wayne Smith to come in for two years to rebuild the side then hand it to Axel, former Canterbury underage coach Rob Penney will be taking the reins. Penney has a reputation as a no-nonsense kind of guy, and is already ruffling feathers, of golden child Keith Earls in the first instance (more anon).

On the playing field, the recruitment ranges from the bizarre to the intriguing. Looking at the squad from last year, you would have plotted a re-build around a core of Mike Sherry, BJ Botha, POC, Donnacha Ryan, POM, Conor Murray, Keith Earls and Simon Zebo. The strongest links there are Botha, POC and Keith Earls – with any of these three missing, it’s hard to see Munster getting the necessary wins on the road.

In Earls case, he has stated that he is sick to the back teeth of being moved around the backline, and has staked a claim to the 13 jersey as his ambition. Which makes it all the odder that Munster have recruited, and not for peanuts, former BNZ-er Casey Laulala from Cardiff – Laulala can pretty much only play 13 (though he has some experience at 12 and 11) , and it seems unlikely they have picked him for the bench. Here’s what Rob Penney had to say on that particular issue:

“In my discussions with Keith, we’ve got the ability to manage his needs and the team’s needs. Look, he’s a dedicated, committed team person. He’s made it very clear what his preference is and I respect that immensely. What we’ll endeavour to do is meet a majority of his needs within what the team needs are and hopefully he can just embrace that and get on and play for this team as well as he can so that he can further his international aspirations down the track.”

Riiiight. So Laulala will start at 13 by the looks of things. Then there is CJ Stander – this is a guy who has been earmarked as a future Springbok for a long time, who has now upped sticks to Munster to be their project player. To say it’s odd is an understatement – with all due respect to Ireland, young Afrikaaners do not grow up dreaming of wet Tuesdays with Deccie in Carton House. The likelihood is Munster have thrown a large wad of cash at him, persuaded him to put his Bok career on ice for a few years, and slotted him where they could – into the vacant project player role in this case.

It could go either way. Best case – he gives Munster the kind of go-forward carrier they lacked last season, balances the backrow well with POM and Cawlin while at 7, or Ronan and POM/Cawlin while at 6, frees up Conor Murray to carry less and pass more, and helps bring through some youngsters like Paddy Butler. The impact Pedrie Wannenbosh had at Ulster is a good comparison. Worst case – he marks the clock for two years and goes home at the first opportunity with a fatter wallet. Lets hope it’s the former. We don’t want to sound negative on it, but Stander is inexperienced and a lot is being asked of him – he’s talented and a good fit, but there is some Sykes risk in him.  It’s an unusual signing for a club which has put so much store in foreign recruits buying into what Munster rugby is all about [J. de Villiers (2009)].  There appears little chance of that with Stander.

Coming into Munster’s perennial problem position of inside centre is Oooooooooooohh James Downey, from the Saints. There are high hopes for Downey, but we fear they are too high. Downey is a pretty effective player, but he is essentially a journeyman and a one-trick-pony, and spent large chunks of last season behind Tom May in the Northampton pecking order. Even if he does play like he did in 2010-11, having a crash ball bosh merchant at 12 does not really suit either the kind of game Rob Penney apparently favours, or the galaxy of pretty decent outside backs Munster have – Earls, Zebo, Hurley, Jones and Howlett would be better served with a Paddy Wallace type at 12.  We can only presume he’ll be used in the same way that Saints deployed him, where any attempt to go wide is preceeded by a Downey smash up the middle.

On the plus side, Munster have a settled and powerful front 5, and the aforementioned outside backs. A front row of du Preez, Varley/Sherry, Botha won’t step backwards much and gets around the park a bit. The set-pieces will be solid, especially when you consider the second row combo. There isn’t much depth there, but the starters have class. Frankie has been banging the Dave Kilcoyne drum for a while – hopefully Stephen Archer and him get the chance to accumulate some experience this year in the engine room. Both South African props are technically excellent and the Irish deputies should be spongeing up as much of them as they can.  The importance of O’Connell cannot be overstated.  He’s the lightning rod in the pack, and while he’s increasingly prone to injury, when fit he’s still the best lock in Europe.  Munster need him to be available with greater frequency.

In the back three, Denis Hurley will get a chance to nail down the 15 shirt before Jones returns, and Simon Zebo will look to add more defensive solidity and greater nuance to his explosive attacking game. Howlett is the elder statesman, but he has value to add as the master of on-pitch defensive positioning – he has so much to teach the likes of Zebo and Luke O’Dea, and should be milked dry.

[Aside – our points about the props and Howlett give an insight into what foreign players can bring – add in the influence Wannenbosh had on Chris Henry, and you see it’s not all about on-field matters]

If Conor Murray reverts to his first half of 2011 form and Stander (or Butler) give the backrow a power jolt, the only other question mark is at 10. The incumbent is the mighty Ronan O’Gara, now 35. O’Gara has been the fulcrum of the Munster side for 13 years, but is finally showing signs of ageing – his effectiveness dipped markedly in the second half of last season (admittedly after a very productive first half). A new coach with a new direction would appear to be the perfect time to trial a new man and a new gameplan (in fact, on the face of it, it’s so blindingly obvious as to be the favoured course of action), but the notoriously competitive Rog is unlikely to accept being backup, nor is he likely to be diplomatic about it. Ian Keatley is presently the number 2, but he has yet to convince he has it at the highest level.

How Penney manages the succession in this key position may determine his legacy – O’Gara will probably start the season like a train in his determination to hold on to the Munster jersey until he is 58 38, but Keatley is going to get his chance sooner rather than later. If you see a Munster team line out for a HEC game with O’Gara wearing 22, postpone all other tasks – it will invariably get interesting.

On the youngster front, JJ Hanrahan is the NKOTB – he is an outhalf at present, but was a centre before his under-20 RWC performances, and it will be interesting to see what type of exposure he gets, and where. Munster have not had a settled and solid 12 since Trevor Halstead, and Hanrahan may yet be the solution there. Luke O’Dea will get more exposure on the wing, and in the pack, look out for Next Big Thing Ian Nagle, improving blindside Dave O’Callaghan and still-promising Tommy O’Donnell.

Verdict: Rob Penney looks a shrewd appointment.  His credentials are based on the number of high quality players he successfully delivered to the Canterbury Crusaders from the feeder team, as well as posing good results in the ITM Cup.  He seems to be aware that his role at Munster is to rebuild the team, but knows that it’s a results business and that Munster fans are tired at seeing Leinster win trophies and worried about Ulster stealing a march on them.

Munster are some of the way down the re-building path thanks to Ludd’s last 18 months, but where Ludd took a piecemeal, sticky-plaster approach to squad development, Penney will surely deliver something more cohesive.  But huge challenges remain, particularly at out-half.  Not only will it determine the style of play going forward, but the ease of Penney’s tenure will be largely decided by O’Gara’s attitude to his inevitable easing out.

Developing a coherent gameplan looks like the first port of call for Penney. Munster have gone from a 10-man team to all-cylinders attack to a mushy ineffective hybrid of slow ruck ball, lateral back play and first-man-out rumbles into the tackler. We never quite felt McGahan brought his vision to bear on the Munster team. With what is now a relatively inexperienced group keen to learn and improve, Penney should see his brand of rugby enacted on the field of play.  They need a sense of playing identity back – a style that becomes readily identifiable as Munster.

The fans might settle for a season which shows the groundwork for future success has been well-laid, if green shoots show well. And after the string of painful defeats in McGahan’s last two years (Toulon, Quins, Ulster, Ospreys), Munster fans will want to see their team do themselves justice in the big games.

We think it will be a difficult year, but one looked back on as the foundations of something better in retrospect. We fancy Sarries to top the HEC pool, but not with ironclad confidence – catching them is certainly not beyond Munster, but it’s likely to need O’Gara in vintage form and O’Connell 100% fit.  How they fare on the road is the big question, and the schedule has sent them to Paris in the first week to face Racing.  With Sarries still to come, they may need to return with a win.  We’re tentatively going for an Amlin excursion (but no silverware) and a top half finish (but no playoff) in the Pro12 – the absence of Micko will make it more difficult for the dirt-trackers to scratch out the kind of wins they have been getting in the last three years.  It’s the tough work that pays off in the end, and this season is about tough work for Munster – luckily the fans are on board, and Penney is likely to get an extended honeymoon period. Let’s hope they stay on board if he starts p*ssing of Radge or Keith Earls!

National Game Plans, Political Infighting and Corporate Days Out

Well, that just about wraps up our summer series.  Thanks for all the comments and interaction, we hope you enjoyed the trip down memory lane.  For us anyway, it wasn’t just an exercise in dewy-eyed nostalgia, but an attempt to put in a wider context where Irish rugby has found itself and how it got there.  Because, looking back, Irish rugby is in an entirely new place and experiencing something it’s never had to deal with before.

In 2012, Irish rugby is more fragmented than it’s ever been.   We’ve had spells of woeful inadequacy, but the rugby public suffered as one.  We’ve also had periods of greatness, and the joy was shared in by all.  In 2012, your view of the past season is almost certainly coloured by what province you come from.  Leinster fans had a great time.  They’ll be able to look past the national team’s failures and their memory banks will be dominated by the Heineken Cup win and great rugby their team played.  Ulster fans likewise had a memorable year.  But Munster fans had neither provincial nor international success to celebrate and probably took the national team’s ills harder  because they had little to compensate for it.

The rise of the provinces has been a key ingredient in the success of Irish rugby over the last decade – we hope this came out clearly in the eight game series.  They have pooled talent into an appropriate number of teams to ensure competitiveness, brought new fans into rugby grounds and – most importantly – given us historic days out that won’t be forgotten any time soon.  And they’ve won shedloads of silver.  The IRFU has been rightly praised for getting its structures right in that the provinces exist as entities within their own right, but ultimately feed the national team.  The idea that provincial success is now detrimental to the national team – peddled by certain journalists looking to justify a pre-conveiced opinion – is simply ridiculous.  It is nonsensical to suggest that if Leinster, Ulster and Munster were struggling to get out of their pools that Team Ireland would somehow be better off.  We reject it utterly.

The IRFU and Kidney need to make sure they don’t allow themselves to go down this path.  Indications are that they are already doing so.  It looks as if the provinces have grown to the stage where the IRFU does not know what to do with them.  In the last twelve months we’ve had the new player succession rules, some pretty spotty low-budget recruiting, and from Kidney, sounds about the provinces not generating enough match-time for certain players and how he’d ideally have the players in camp rather than competing in Cup finals.  They need to be very careful here.  French rugby is currently marooned in a club vs. country wasteland.  In the last Six Nations they won two of five games and the Top 14 was unwatchable this year.  If France – with its huge player pool, wonderful history, passionate supporter base and superb youth sports programs – can be brought so low by political in-fighting, what chance does a small country like Ireland have?

So much commentary (including our own) is fixated on Kidney’s selection and tactics, but there is a bigger picture: if Deccie is going to see the provinces as a nuisance to be battled with, then he has no chance of succeeding.  Our understanding is that his relationship with the provincial coaches is close to negligible.  This is a road doomed to failure.  The coach who does succeed will be the one who can harness what the provinces are doing for his own gain.

It is tempting at this point to rush towards Muddy Williams’ touted concept of the ‘national game plan’, apparently the approach taken in New Zealand.  But such notions appear fanciful, in the medium term at least.  The Irish talent pool just isn’t deep enough.  The coaches at Ulster, Munster, Leinster and Connacht each have to cut their cloth according to what’s available.  For example, Ireland has just two top-grade fly-halves, and they play and see the game very differently.  Each is good enough to have the team’s style of play built around their talents.  But it would be bizarre to tell Rob Penney to make Munster play more like Leinster, or to ask Schmidt to get Sexton to kick the corners a bit more.   Their jobs are tough enough as it is.  And who decides what the national game plan is anyway?  Presumably the national team coach.  So, Kidney telling Schmidt how to play rugby?  It sounds like a practical joke.  It just doesn’t seem workable on any level.

There’s no obvious solution, but it’s hard to escape the thought that Kidney could do more to embrace what’s happening in provinces, especially Leinster.  But just as Eddie O’Sullivan was unwilling to follow a Munster-based approach in spite of picking so many of their number, Kidney seems to be trying to get players who clearly so enjoy what they do at provincial level to play a very different way.  Throw in his mantra-like repetition of the venerated status of test rugby, and you’re looking at a coach that’s increasingly stubborn and embattled.  It’s no platform for success.  Kidney needs help from the IRFU here, too.  It would help if the provinces didn’t feel they were being dictated to in terms of who they can play and when.  All that said, both Joe Schmidt is on record as having welcomed the ‘increased dialogue’ between national and provincial coaches last week, while Rob Penney enjoyed a ‘robust talk’ with Kidney on arriving at Munster.  Maybe the tide is turning, slowly.

Secondly, the players, Kidney and the IRFU need to make an investment to win back an increasingly disillusioned support base.  If the IRFU is wondering why the provinces have such pulling power, they might just take a look at the product they provide: cheap, accessible tickets to tightly packed grounds, family-friendly set-ups, a strong bond with the players, away trips to the South of France and great rugby towns like Bath and Northampton.  Little wonder that the more corporate, expensive and often dull Six Nations is not terribly attractive.  Casting one’s mind back over the last few years, you have to go back to 2007 to recall the last genuinely thrilling Six Nations.  Sure, the 2009 Grand Slam was incredible, but looking at it objectively, it wasn’t a classic series by any means.

Supporting Ireland is no craic at all these days.  Tom Fox wrote in a recent piece for Setanta that nobody really ‘owns’ the national team.  Fans will never allow their provincial team to be slagged by another team’s mob (go onto any of the fans’ forums for proof), but everyone is happy to dump on the national team.  There are easy scapegoats for all.  Leinster and Ulster fans blame the coach no matter what, while Munster fans see a Leinster-dominated team and blame the players.  It’s tiresome.  Some effort needs to be made to bring a bit of fun, a bit of excitement into the national team.

When you watch YouTube videos of Shaggy’s try in Twickenham or BOD’s hat-trick in Paris, there’s a sense that they were more innocent times and that something’s been lost.  It’s a sad day when suporters see the Six Nations, such a great old tournament with such rich history, as something to be got over.  In 2008, after Munster almost beat the Kiwis, ROG said that ‘maybe we need to buy into the green shirt a bit more’.  And maybe the same applies to the fans today.  We could all do with falling in love with the national team again.  But the powers that be have to make it easier for us.

Eight Games That Defined Irish Rugby: Match Seven

The Match: Leinster 25 Munster 6, 2 May 2009

What it Defined: the handing over of the baton from Munster to Leinster  and the rise of inter-provincial bickering

The State of Play

The Heineken Cup has thrown up a reprise of 2006’s all-Irish semi-final.  That game has since gone down as ‘Black Sunday’ among Leinster fans, where their team was thrashed on the pitch and humiliated off it, as Munster fans swamped Dublin 4 and Lansdowne Road.  A repeat of 2006 is widely expected, on the field of play at least.  While both teams have made it this far, their paths have been wildly different.

Munster are playing like a well-oiled machine.  They’re champions, and they’ve navigated a difficult group, albeit not without a few scares.  In the opening game, they almost lose to Montauban’s second string, and they are decidedly fortunate to beat 14-man Clermont Auvergne at home.  But since a bad loss at home to Ulster (11-37) they have found a new gear, thrashing Sale at home with David Wallace in imperious form, and charging through the Magners League program, picking up eight successive league wins.  They are league champions by the time the Heineken Cup semi-final looms into view.

A far cry from the old boot-and-bollock Munster, they are scoring tries for fun.  Paul Warwick has brought a creative dimension to their back play and young centre Keith Earls is to the manor born.  They beat Leinster 22-5 in Thomond Park, and in the HEC quarter-final they hammer a talented Ospreys team 43-9.  As Warwick bangs over a drop goal from close to the halfway line, the camera picks up Paul O’Connell’s reaction: a shake of the head in disbelief.  A week later, eight of their number are selected in the Lions touring party.  The usual suspects are joined by two players who didn’t even feature in Ireland’s Grand Slam the previous month: Alan Quinlan and Keith Earls.

The oft-used phrase (usually by Gerry) of the “Munster zeitgeist” is truly relevant – Geech and Gatty plan to tap into the famous Munster spirit to beat the world champion Springboks. Munster are mainstream. It’s a time when Setanta can screen hour-long documentaries posing the question “Are Munster the epitome of sporting Irishness?”. It’s mildly cringeworthy to look back on, but Munster were generally seen as something special and superhuman.

By contrast, Leinster’s season has been bizarre to the point of freakish.  They bag 10 tries and 10 points from their first two games, dismantling Wasps 41-11 in the RDS, but proceed to go into freefall.  They lose to Castres, in a dismal performance and face the consequences when Neil Francis writes a barbed review in the Sindo.  They then lose to Wasps but scrape past Edinburgh 12-3, qualifying only by dint of Wasps’ failure to win their final pool game in Castres.  Frankly, they are lucky to qualify, having made a mess of a perfect start.

The quarter final pits them against Harlequins in the Stoop.  In a crazy, unforgettable match, Leinster tackle themselves to a standstill, somehow holding out for a 6-5 win.  The game is notable for the infamous bloodgate scandal, with Quins engineering a fake-blood substitution to get a stricken Nick Evans back on the pitch for a late drop goal attempt.   In the end, his kick barely gets airborne and Leinster find themselves in an unlikely semi-final against their biggest rivals.

The build-up to the game is in contrast to 2006.  Then it was a case of city slickers vs. country bumpkins.  Now, it is impossible to find a pundit who will give Leinster a chance.  Leinster’s car-crash form and lack of bottle is held up against Munster’s seeming invincibility and air of champions elect.  In a piece by Reggie Corrigan, the turncoat ‘Lunster’ fan reaches a mainstream audience, and the Lunsters take to the airwaves to defend their position.  On the morning of the game, the Irish Times publishes a self-satisfied, nasty-spirited piece by Niall Kiely, declaring the game already won, lamenting only that Munster could do with a tougher game in order to be more battle-hardened for the final.

The Game

The game goes contrary to expectations in every way as Munster run into a Leinster team that simply had not read the script.  Leinster’s performance is feral: tackle counts are through the roof (Jennings tops out with 22)and they pulverise Munster at the breakdown.   Felipe Contepomi sets the tone, smashing through O’Gara in the opening minutes.  Rocky Elsom, becoming an increasingly influential figure, is on the rampage.  Cian Healy is sinbinned, but Leinster dominate the ensuing 10 minute period.  Contepomi drops a goal.  He’s got his game face on this time, and he’s in control – but gets injured.  His replacement is Johnny Sexton, Leinster’s vaunted fly-half, but one who has endured a difficult season.  His first task is to take a penalty from the left of the posts.  He takes an age over the ball, but his kick is straight through the middle.

It is a watershed moment in his and Leinster’s history.  Suddenly Leinster are on the front foot all over the pitch.  Isa Nacewa breaks the line, floats a sublime pass out to D’arcy who breaks Keith Earls’ poor tackle to score.  A backlash from Munster is expected in the second half, but instead it’s Leinster who strike next, with Fitzgerald stepping Paul Warwick to score.  Cameras pick up ashen-faced Munster fans who cannot believe what is unfolding in front of their eyes.  When Brian O’Driscoll intercepts a telegraphed long pass from O’Gara to score under the posts, the game is up.  Leinster have done the unthinkable – beaten Munster when it mattered most.

The win is a huge triumph for Leinster’s under-fire coach.  His preparation of the team for the game is masterful, keeping the group at a simmer, and only bringing them to boil in the 24 hours before kick-off.  He uses the media to his advantage, building a siege mentaility within the camp, an everyone-hates-us-we-don’t care-attitude.  It is also a vindication for his methods, which are not to everyone’s liking, and reward for three years of rebuilding work.  After Black Sunday in 2006, Leinster Rugby and Cheika had reacted by changing much about the club.  He recognised that days out like the quarter-final in Toulouse would be rare unless Leinster had a group of forwards that could go toe-to-toe with the heavyweight European packs.

Leinster’s signature style of swashbuckling back play had to go on the back burner, as Cheika sought to construct a more forward-oriented team, built around tough nuggets Leo Cullen, Shane Jennings, Bernard Jackman, Jamie Heaslip and, of course, Rocky Elsom.  Winning the Magners League in 2008 was a big, often undervalued step.  But the new Leinster could be dull to watch, and there were large sections who bemoaned the pragmatic playing style – where was the champagne, the romance and the tries from 50m out?  Cheika’s legacy hinged on this result, and the final which followed.

The Aftermath

The game had a profound effect on every element of Irish rugby, from the fans, through to the provinces and up to the national team.  For Leinster, it was their arrival, long overdue, on the European stage.  Even more importantly, they had made people sit up and take notice of them – to look at them in a new way.  The easy stereotype of the Munster Pride of Irish Warriors and the Cappuccino-Drinking Leinster Bottlers no longer held water.   They had earned the rugby public’s respect the only way they could – by toppling the team against whose record theirs was always unfavourably compared.

First, of course, they had to go on and win the final, against Leicester in Murrayfield.  Contepomi would not be able to take his place in the team, and would be replaced by his heir apparent, Johnny Sexton.  The game was a tight affair, but an imperfectly struck penalty from Sexton with ten minutes to go was enough to secure a 19-16 win for Leinster.  If Munster’s first Heineken Cup win was met with relief after many near misses, Leinster’s was greeted almost with a sense of ‘How did we get here?’  Only six months previously they were losing in Castres and taking the brickbats; now they were champions.  Truth be told, they weren’t vintage champions, but such is the curious nature of the Heineken Cup.  It was a triumph over self-inflicted adversity as much as anything else.

The rise of Leinster was great for Irish rugby in many senses – where Ireland previously had one province with genuine European pedigree, now they had two.  Had Munster won it would have been perceived as just another nail in the Leinster coffin, but Leinster winning opened a whole new world to Irish rugby.  As the capital city’s only professional team, they were well poised to capitalise on their success.  The emerging Tullow flanker Sean O’Brien would also have a huge impact on how those from outside the traditional Leinster cache would view the team.  And behind the scenes, Leinster had got its structures right, with its flourishing youth academy, in building ties with the schools game and creating a buzzy, family-friendly atmosphere at its new home in the RDS.  It was a success story waiting to happen and the win against Munster lit the touchpaper.

But it wasn’t all great news.  Perhaps the greatest knock-on effect was in the relationship between the fans of the two provinces.  Up until this game, the two groups had co-existed happily: Munster held the bragging rights and Leinster fans reluctantly accepted their lot as second best, but banter between them was generally cheery.  This had been the way of things for ten years, and nobody expected it to shift any time soon.  Leinster being European champions levelled the playing field, and changed the dynamic utterly.  Now Leinster fans could stand up and defend their team.  It led to quite a bit of rancour, most of it, mercifully, confined to internet fora rather than at the games between the sides, where fans still mingled and drank together before, during and after the matches.  For some Munster fans there was an element of not being able to take the ribbing now they were no longer top dog, and equally, for some Leinster fans there was a desire for revenge for years of having taken it.

[We are aware this is a delicate issue, and do not want our words taken as attributing blame to any particular side; in the comments section, please refrain from trying to start any flame wars on this subject.  Any such comments will be moderated.]

Oddly, the most poisonous encounters were saved for games involving the national team, when everyone is supposedly supporting the same side.  With Johnny Sexton’s emergence, Leinster fans wanted to see their man replace Ronan O’Gara in the national team.  Neither player was especially popular among one-anothers fans, and their dual in the most visible of positions became emblematic of the new rivalry.  The sniping could become quite barbed.  It was not helped by both players showing some patchy form in green and Kidney’s constant chopping between the two, or by the headstrong, often cranky nature of both players.  As Ireland’s results and performances dwindled, a blame-game culture emerged, with provincial leanings to the fore.  It was BOD’s fault for knocking it on.  No, it was ROG’s fault for throwing such a terrible pass.  And so on.

The irony of it all, of course, is that historically the biggest rivalries in Irish rugby were Leinster-Ulster (where the game existed in similar social strata) and Munster-Ulster (where, to be blunt, they never particularly liked or respected each other). Perhaps the absence of a clearly defined Leinster-Munster rivalry allowed a new dynamic to develop quickly. It has now got to the point where it is completely overarching, dominating virtually every aspect of Irish rugby – the arrival of Ulster at the top table comes as a merciful relief for many fans, allowing alternative provincial dynamics to get oxygen. The Leinster-Ulster fixture scheduling in this years Pro12 is a welcome development.

The following season Leinster consolidated their position as one of Europe’s heavyweights, if not yet a great side.  They squeezed past Clermont in the quarter-finals, on a memorable night in the RDS, but succumbed to Toulouse in the semi-final.  In the league they struggled for tries for much of the season and lost the final to Ospreys, but in beating Munster three times, secured their position as the country’s foremost province.  It was a spirited campaign, but the backline was labouring and in need of new ideas.  Cheika stood down at the end of the season and his replacement, Clermont assistant coach Joe Schmidt, would be tasked with bringing some of the old dash back into what was now a tough, doughty outfit.  The rest, as they say, is history.

Pick me! Pick me!

Keith Earls really, really, really wants to play outside centre for Munster, and presumably Ireland.  The details are here in Earls’ interiew with Charlie Mulqueen in the Examiner.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/rugby/earls-vows-to-make-13-jersey-his-own-202572.html

It’s not the first time he’s made these sort of noises, and unlike his media-schooled colleagues, Keith Earls is the one Irish player who is something of an open book in interviews, and doesn’t seem to mind coming out with heartfelt, honest comments that could leave him in a tight spot. It’s great to see his wide-eyed enthusiasm for the game as well – makes one smile.

However, we’ve mixed feelings on his latest.  We’ve no problem with him saying he wants to play 13 – that’s fair, so why not come out and say it?  We’re always commenting that he’s been messed around too much in his career, so he’s right to try and nail down a position for himself.

But by saying he “hate[s] playing 11” he is in danger of making a rod for himself, and others.  He’s played the majority of his international career and much of his club games there, and if he hates it so much, he at least appears to have made a decent fist of it.  At some point he’ll be called upon to play there, and it puts unnecessary pressure on his coaches when they do it.

Last year his game improved hugely at 13 and he has surely earned the right to start the season in that position. We would see Earls as one of the players Penney should be looking to build the new Munster team around.  Trouble is as a centrally contracted player he’ll be missing the first few weeks of the season, so Laulala has a headstart in the 13 jumper.  Also, Laulala is an out-and-out 13 with little versatility – Earls can be accommodated elsewhere, but Laulala cannot.  Can Munster afford to leave such talent on the bench? Or can Penney, as a new coach, afford to marginalise one of his best players?

It’s a most interesting quandry for Penney.  Thirteenwatch starts early this year.

Eight Games That Defined Irish Rugby: Match Five

The Game: Gloucester 3-16 Munster, 5th April 2008

What it Defined: the transformation of Irish provinces into all-conquering Europe-dominating machines, and in particular Munster’s period of dominance

The State of Play

The Heineken European Cup (then just the European Cup) began with a bit of a whimper in 1995.  The first season had no English or Scots, but one Romanian representative. Ulster,  Munster and Leinster threw their hats in the ring, and the IRFU was delighted to find something for its newly-minted employees to do. Leinster were the only Irish side to make it past the first round, but were beaten by Cardiff in the semi-final, in front of 7,000 (!) at Lansdowne Road.

The English and Scottish joined the next year, and that ruined any chance of immediate success for the Irish. No Irish province made the knock-out stages, which was a fair reflection of Irish rugby’s standing at the time – until the English took a sabbatical in 1998-99.

It was that year that the Irish finally got a taste for the competition. The absence of the English gave them crucial oxygen at a time when the moneybags English game had its jackboot firmly on the Celtic throat – leaving 1999 aside; Bath, Northampton and Leicester (twice) gave England four wins in a row. Ulster and Munster took advantage of the empty field, both making their knock-out debuts. While Munster fell at the next hurdle, Ulster went on to memorable success – the semi-final win over Stade Francais was the first of many Epics involving Irish sides, and the final was an unforgettable occasion, if a forgettable match – the first Irish success in the competition, albeit with an asterisk.

From that point on, for the next 10 and a bit years, the story of Irish rugby in Europe was bound up in Munster’s story. Sporadic success from Leinster merely masked a poor setup, and Ulster endured the worst years in their history.  Both played second fiddle to the all-conquering Liginds from the south.

It was all the more impressive for having started at a low base.  They will always remember the lowest low in Munster: Mick Galwey standing under the Toulouse posts, begging the lads to keep it below 60 (they did). But their capacity to learn and develop led them to higher and higher peaks.

In truth though, there were three Munster teams – the cohort of 2000 and 2002 were essentially a crowd of players who had straddled the amateur and professional eras, led by giants from outside. Munster rugby had always stood in greater contrast to Ulster and Leinster in that the club scene was the main development pathway, unlike the schools system elsewhere.  This meant that players like Peter Clohessy and Mick Galwey immediately brought the ethos of Limerick club rugby, which had dominated the AIL in the early 1990s, into Munster. Outsiders like John Langford and Keith Wood (remember, he played virtually his entire career in England) came in and channeled the latent talent into a team that could compete with the best.

That team’s finest hour was the 31-25 semi-final victory away to Toulouse in 2000, a remarkable result, and for many the day that Munster rugby as we know it was born.  It left them needing to beat an unremarkable Northampton team in the final, but in heartbreaking fashion, Munster let the game slip from their grasp.  The night before the game, the players had an emotional team meeting, with players reportedly in tears talking about the pride they felt in the jersey.  It backfired – the emotion was spent and the team were flat by the time they took the field of play.  The team that lost the 2000 final had a pack of Clohessy, Wood, Hayes, Galwey, Langford, Halvey, Wallace, Foley.

Two years later another final beckoned, but again Munster came up agonisingly short.  Unable to conjure up a try, they did manage to create a platform in the dying minutes with an attaking scrum, but… well, we all know what happened next.

The second great Munster team, the first to bring home the trophy, against Biarritz in 2006, had only Hayes, Wallace and Foley from the 2000 forwards – a serious amount of experience gone, but replaced by the next generation, typified by the aggression of Jirry Flannery, Paul O’Connell and Denis Leamy. The near-miss against Wasps in the 2004 semi-final – one of the greatest matches in the Cup’s history – was the crucible that forged that side.  Only six of the team that day started the 2000 final, but most of the newbies would still be there two years later. The 2006 team also had Peter Stringer and Ronan O’Gara years older and more experienced, and possessors of a couple of Triple Crowns – key players were now becoming accustomed to success.

Either side of that 2006 triumph, Munster limped out in the quarter-finals – still respectable no doubt, but it showed they weren’t yet complete. Their true peak came from 2008-2009, when they mutated into a machine, a match-winning juggernaut that was the best team in Europe, supplied more Lions than any other team, and at times seemed unbeatable.

In the 2007-08 tournament, Munster had a stinking draw, their toughest to date: champions Wasps, their 2007 conquerers Llanelli and French nouveau riche Clermont Auvergne. The group games were memorable, primarily for the bonus point in the Marcel Michelin that ultimately put them through.  The stadium would become a familiar venue for Irish bonus points (no wins!), and Munster laid the marker down.  In the final pool game they ground a cocky Wasps side into the dirt, ROG giving his much-vaunted opposite number, Danny Cipriani, a lesson in how to play cup rugby on a wet day.

Waiting in the quarter-finals were Gloucester – top of the Premiership and flying high in Europe. It was a familiar stage for Munster, but their last quarter-final win away from Thomond was five years previously, and they were second favourites.

The Game

This build-up will be remembered for Deccie’s two massive selection calls – Tomas O’Leary and Denis Hurley came in for Shaun Payne and Peter Stringer. Both turned up and justified Deccie’s faith – admittedly when you are playing behind a pack like Munster had, that is a little easier to do. This was classic management from a wily coach – changing from a position of strength, and ensuring the new players were being dropped into a settled, winning team.  Munster were utterly dominant after a slightly off-key start.  Chris Paterson was given several attempts to get Glaws off the mark, but uncharacteristically missed three times in the opening quarter.

After that, it was all Munster – the high-octane frenzied defence and aggressive and opportunistic attack that was to be their signature were both present here. Ian Dowling and Dougie Howlett crossed either side of half time, and Rog’s boot did the rest – it was 16-0 after an hour, and finished 16-3. The intensity and control of Munster’s display was breath-taking, and a harbinger of things to come.

For sure there were more iconic games and more miraculous matches, if you will, but while other games may have defined the Munster spirit and ethos to a greater degree, we have chosen this game because we feel it was the point at which they became a great team, who will be remembered for their trophy haul and not just their pluck. From this point, they didn’t need miracles, only a stage for their greatness.

The teams that day were:

Gloucester: Morgan; Paterson, Simpson-Daniel, Allen, (Ooooooh) Vainikolo; Lamb, Lawson; Wood, Titterill, Nieto; Bortolami, Brown; Buxton, Hazell, Naraway.

Munster: Hurley; Howlett, Tipoki, Mafi, Dowling;  O’Gara, O’Leary; Horan, Flannery, Hayes; O’Connell, O’Callaghan; Quinlan, Wallace, Leamy.

The Aftermath

Munster went on to win the trophy for a second time, narrowly winning a nervy semi-final against Saracens before dispatching the mighty Toulouse 16-13 in the final. The last 10 minutes of the final became Exhibit A in favour of tweaks to the ruck laws to prevent teams picking and going to wind the clock down, but that didn’t stop Munster on the day.  To those playing and watching it felt different to the 2006 win.  First time around the overriding emotion was of relief that, having had so many heartbreaking near-misses, they had finally reached their holy grail.  In 2008, it felt like the arrival of a truly great side; a European force.  The players felt they could enjoy the victory more the second time.

The next season, Munster were insatiable. By now Kidney had moved on, replaced by McGahan, but the transition was seamless.  Incredibly, they stepped up another level – the pool stages were a wash, Munster only losing one game (in Clermont) to earn a home quarter-final. That was the game they peaked – smashing an Ospreys team containing Tommy Bowe, James Hook, Mike Phillips and most of the 2012 Grand Slam Welsh tight five 43-9. Seven of the pack that day played in the 2006 final, but only two of the backs.  This Munster had a backline threat to go with their test-level pack.  Paul Warwick gave them a newfound spark of creativity in the back three, and their sparkling new centre, local boy Keith Earls was enjoying a terrific breakthrough season. The days of Munster as a 10 man team were in the past.

It was the pinacle of Munster 3.0 – with back-to-back Heiny’s seemingly at their mercy, they lost the semi-final that year to an unfancied Leinster (more of which anon). They were the most consistent team in Europe that year, but finished without the trophy (that’s Cup rugby for you), and they never quite recovered.  The following year, they were patchy at times, but roused themselves for a couple of memorable performances.  They ended a lengthy home winning record in Perpignan’s Stade Aime Geral, thrashing the hosts 37-14, from where they topped the pool.  They followed that with a memorable slapdown of Northampton in the quarter-final. It ended in the next round though; Biarritz ground them into the dust, exploiting the rapid de-powering of the front row to end the short-lived dominance of Munster 3.0.

The combination of the experienced and powerful pack built through campaign after campaign in Europe with the perfect 10, a breaking 9, the best centre partnership in professional Munster’s history and the All Black’s leading try-scorer was a potent mix – and it first came together that day in Kingsholm. Keith Earls and Paul Warwick would improve it further.  Their peak was a year later against the Ospreys, and their last hurrah another year later against the Saints.

They began a five season period where Irish teams went from a situation where they achieved occasional success, but more often heroic defeat, to one where they beat all comers – four HECs in five seasons (and counting) is testament to that. Despite beating them in 2009, Leinster definitively overtook them only in 2010-11, and by then Munster 3.0 had disintegrated into the rabble that succumbed so meekly in Toulon – Father Time and a reluctance to move on had seen to that.

They’ll be back, but the magic that started in Kingsholm will remain their high water mark for a long time.

Stealing our jobs

The days might have gone when Irish rugby folk looked on in wide-eyes amazement when Aussies came over to tell them it wasn’t the best idea to booze when recovering from injury, but we still are in thrall to the glamourous tanned lads who, in many ways, tell the story of Irish professional rugby as well as any Irish players. John Langford leading the troops through moats of molten lava in the south of France, Stanley Wright barbecuing Fido before the pound got him, and Clinton Shifcofske fumbling Garryowens on a sodden Belfast night are all part of Irish rugby lore, and Isa, Dougie and Ruan have picked up the baton, albeit in a rather more effective fashion.

In the context of the IRFU coming over all Tea Party about immigrants, we though it would be a good time to review the provinces’ cohort of evil women-stealing job-doing welfare-scrounging diversity-bringing native-educating mind-expanding Johnny Foreigners plying their nefarious trade in green Erin.

Recall for this season Ulster, Munster and Leinster are allowed four NIQs (players who can’t play for Ireland) and one “Project Player” (someone who will be eligible for Irish selection after a period of time), and Connacht are allowed “something else” – the technical term for us not actually knowing the formal arrangement.

Munster

NIQs: BJ Botha (tighthead prop), Wian du Preez (loosehead prop), Casey Laulala (centre), Doug Howlett (ligind winger). Project player: CJ Stander (flanker)

After years of grim recruitment abroad (Nick Williams, Sam Tuitupou, Will Chambers et al), Munster have probably surprised even themselves by ending up with a very useful set of foreigners. BJ came down from Ulster last year, reputedly as the best-paid NIQ in the country, and locked the Munster scrum in a way it hadn’t been in years – along with POC, Rog and Keith Earls, he is one of Munster’s irreplacables. On the other side of the scrum Wian du Preez quietly does the business, and is on a longer contract than Botha, so might be around for a while, as he is the only non-Irish loosehead starting for a province. Not much needs to be said about Doug Howlett – if he can teach Simon Zebo 10% of his defensive positioning knowledge, the Corkman is in for a long career.

Casey Laulala is a more curious case – he is exclusively a 13, which is of course the position that Munster’s best back, Irishman Keet Earls, wants to play from now on. It’s unlikely they brought Laulala, a very useful player, in to cover the games when Deccie has Earls wrapped in cotton wool, so you’d imagine someone will play out of position … let’s hope it ain’t Earls. CJ Stander signed last week, and looks a really good fit – a former U-20 Springbok captain, his strength is his ball carrying, a facet of the game in which Munster were notably deficient last season. The Bulls are unhappy to see him go, but we would eat every one of our hats if ever pulled on an Irish jersey – a man who is being lined up for a long Bok career does not walk away for the prospect of playing with Niall Ronan and James Cawlin – he’ll be back on the highveldt in time for RWC15.

Rory McIlroy Rating: 4/5 – a good tighthead prop (the best-paid import in Ireland), the All Blacks all time leading try scorer and a Springbok underage star? Clearly some prominent local celebrity is funding this cadre. Our money is on Pat Shortt.

Ulster

NIQs: John Afoa (tighthead prop), Johann Muller (second row), Ruan Pienaar (scrum half), Not Nick Williams (tackle bag holder). Project Player: Jared Payne (full back)

Ulster’s cohort of fancy Springboks was the envy of certain prominent parochial journalists last year, and with good reason – Ruan Pienaar was the stand-out scrum-half in Europe, Pedrie Wannenburg wowed the galleries with his sumptuous offloads, Stefan Terblanche wellied the ball into orbit and Johann Muller led the team with granite certainty from the second row. Wannenbosh and Terreblanche have moved on, but the others remain. Pienaar is genuinely one of the rugby world’s superstars, and has played for his country in 5 different positions – his game management from the base of the scrum is matched only by Dmitri Yachvili and Will Genia, and his goal-kicking is lethal and reliable. Muller is one of Ulster’s pack leaders, and sometime forwards coach – the hope is he continues to have huge influence on the younger guys coming through – the turnaround in Dan Tuohy from Gloucester reserve to dynamic international lock is at least partly attributable to Muller’s excellence.

John Afoa, despite a hard time in the scrums in the HEC final (kudos to DJ Church), is a destructive and aggressive prop – at times he seems to be everywhere around the park. He’s come into the spotlight recently as the evil genius who stunts Deccie Fitzpatrick’s development, but he will remain first choice at Ulster next year. Which is something Nick Williams will assuredly not be. The ineffective splinter gatherer, formerly of Munster and Aironi, is a laughably bad signing – he can only play 8 and will be behind the returning Roger Wilson (an underrated player and great bit of recruitment). Let us hope he wasn’t Anscombe’s call, because, if he was, its a pretty inauspicious beginning.

Jared Payne has switched from injured NIQ to project player now that Robbie Diack is Irish. He played only 3 times last season then crocked himself – he had a reputation as a daring counter-attacker in Auckland, and that’s something Ulster missed last year – Craig Gilroy apart, the outside backs were rather bosh-tastic.

Rory McIlroy Rating: 3.5/5 Unless Caroline Wozniacki has spent all of Rory’s fortune, there is no good reason he would fund the signing of Nick Williams – Humph has to take the blame for that one

Leinster

NIQs: Isa Nacewa (winger), Heinke van der Merwe (loosehead prop), Quinn Roux (second row), TBA. Project player: Richardt Strauss (hooker)

Isa Nacewa is mentioned in the same breath as Jim Williams and Dr Phil as the most influential foreigner to grace Irish soil, and rightly so – his outlook and professionalism have coloured Leinster’s approach under Joe Schmidt and his awareness of space is a thing of beauty; the try against Leicester in last years’ HEC quarter-final was one of the best we have seen in person. The rest of Leinster’s cohort are in the engine room – Heinke VDM comes on for DJ Church when he gets tired in big games, and mans the Pro12 shift with power and efficiency – he’s basically a prototype Afrikaner prop who can scrummage well and hit rucks hard. Beside him, little Richard Strauss is finalising the words to Ireland’s Call – he’s  qualified in the autumn and will offer some good hands and the support lines of a former flanker.

Leinster had two vacancies following the departures of Nathan White and Mat Berquist, and the first signing is underwhelming to say the least. While Quinn Roux has talent (he was ahead of Eben Etzebeth in the Stormers depth chart before getting injured this year), but it’s an odd signing – it seems he is over here on a gap year and no more – it stinks of penny-pinching, and Leinster are kicking the second row can further down the road – Leo Cullen is no longer top level, and Devin Toner isn’t quite there – this line is a flashing red light for next season. Let’s hope he doesn’t look upon the gap year as an excuse to head to Coppers on a Monday night. We have no insider knowledge of who the TBA is likely to be (or if there will be one), but if the last two guys the IRFU have shelled out for (Williams and Roux) are any guide, a cheap bosher will be making half-time oranges in D4 next year.

Rory McIlroy Rating: 2/5 Bono it ain’t.  The mystery celeb who is funding Leinster’s expansion has been credit-crunched (Johnny Ronan?) – Quinn Roux is a mystifying signing, and the AN Other at this stage of the year is not a good sign

Connacht

NIQs: Ettienne Reynecke (hooker), Rodney Ah You (tighthead prop), George Naoupu (number 8), Dan Parks (outhalf), Fetu’u Vainikolo (bosher). Project Player: Nathan White (tighthead prop), Danie Poolman (winger)

There seems to be a bit more leeway given to imports in the west – Connacht have 5 NIQs and 2 project players. The standout member is former Scotland stand-off Dan Parks – his international career may have ended in ignominy, but he made the most of his opportunities, and was an intelligent and committed international player, who was outstanding in the 2010 Six Nations. Parks will bring poise and experience to a squad thin on guys who have played at the highest level – he will kick goals and will look excellent in green. It could be a precursor of a move into coaching, and this would be Connacht’s gain – he strikes us a classic progressive Aussie coach – Matt Williams with a monster boot if you like.

The (evil) tighthead prop Nathan White has come in from Leinster. He gained positive reviews from his time in D4 but if he ever starts ahead of Ronan Loughney, Deccie will blame him for Ireland’s woes. Rodney Ah You is another one who can be blamed for the Twickers debacle, given he wears 3. The rest of the squad is composed largely of South Sea boshers, and it’s hard to see how this benefits Connacht, or Ireland – its basically dead money that could be invested in young Irish lads.

Rory McIlroy Rating: 1.5/5 Dan Parks aside, the local boy who made it big worldwide (member of Westlife?) is doing this on the cheap – either that or he has a fetish for the bosh – Ooooooooooooooooooooohh!!

Your coaches … give them to me, now

Having looked backwards in some detail at the Munster and Ulster progress in the last few years, it seems logical to have a look forward, especially in the context of the vacant hot-seats in Belfast and Limerick Cork Limerick. Both provinces will be linked with the usual posse of out-of-work-for-ages supremos e.g. John Kirwan, unavailable pipe-dreams e.g. Conor O’Shea and Desperate Dans e.g. Eddie.

But which job would a man want if both were offered? In fact, how do both jobs stack up? Lets get down and dirty and take a 3 year horizon.

Squad (Re-)Building

Ulster: Ulster’s squad has some tidy Saffers, a couple of Irish superstars and a cadre of young and hungry Irish talent. The squad should be expected to remain pretty settled in the medium term, and should form a good base to work with.   Tommy Bowe and Roger Wilson are coming back next season, which represents an endorsement of the province.  The major risk is the IRFU following through on the blame-the-foreigners act – Muller, Pienaar and Afoa would be virtually impossible to replace.  Delivering greater strength in depth is the first call of duty for a new coach; Ulster don’t have the calibre of reserves that Munster and Leinster can call upon.

Munster: A long to-do list beckons, in spite of the work done by McGahan in the last year. Has Rog three years left? Unlikely, even if he was that way inclined (which we doubt). How does one manage the transition from one of the greatest Irish fly halves in history to … er … Ian Keatley? Tough. First job on the list is pruning a bloated squad – the likes of Duncan Williams, Billy Holland and Scott Deasy are among the likely candidates for the chop / N18 to Galway.

Expectation Levels:

Ulster: High, but realistic. Ulster will demand some silverware in 3 years – a Rabo in year 1 or 2 followed by a HEC is the likely target. After two successive quarter-finals, a move into the Munster/Leinster league of being perennial knock-out stage merchants is the next step, as well as earning a home QF.

Munster: Sky-high, and not always realistic. Such is the level of success attained by the Liginds that the Munster faithful demand a HEC quarter-final and a challenge for the Rabo every year as a bare minimum.  Even if the new coach achieves that, they will not be considered a success without a HEC. We could poke fun by talking about honesty of effort and backs to the wall, but that guff belongs to Farrelly – it’s achievements that count in Thomond Park.

Set-up and Coaching:

Ulster: Still training at Newforge, and awaiting the sort of dedicated training centre and professional backup that Munster and Leinster enjoy at UL and UCD. The irony of Ireland’s leading sports science research mostly coming from Ulster (largely due to the GAA) is not lost on Humph etc. Ulster’s support staff and specialist coaches need beefing up, although a new coach may bring some of those.

Munster: Top facilities at UL, but half the squad is based in Cork – the bi-location is not ideal. The real problem for a prospective coach is, ironically given its where Munster have improved so markedly this season, the forwards coach (assuming here Axel is not the new head coach). Any new coach will have to accept Axel as forwards coach whether they want him or not – that said, he appears fit for purpose.

External Influence:

Ulster: Humph is a hands-on kind of guy, but one suspects that once the new coach and his team are in place, they will be left to it. Brian McLaughlin was left alone until Humph knew he was being replaced. The Ravenhill faithful will support the new coach unconditionally, for the first year at least, given he has the Humph seal of approval. There will be pressure to succeed, but there will not be interference. The rugby media in Ulster are generally rather tame, and without a record of success in a while, everything is still taken as a bonus.

Munster: Axel is regarded as the man in waiting by the suits and the fans (why do you think Ludd was only offered a 1 year deal?) – if things go badly, sections of the crowd will be looking for the coach’s head, and for Axel to step in. Is a top-name coach going to be interested in coming in for a couple of years, when he knows he’ll be moved on after that?  Now try transitioning Radge out of the team – the fans will only be on one side. The media can be fawning, but it’s conditional – if the Liginds like you, you’re in, otherwise, you’re out.

Conclusion:

It’s pretty obvious which job is more appealing to a big name coach, and it’s not the Munster one. In fact, it’s arguable that there are no positives for a non-Munster coach going in (other than the prestige of managing a great franchise), and that anyone with sense wouldn’t touch the job with a bargepole. That being as it is, the Munster hierarchy may be best off appointing Axel a year before they intended to and give him the best backs coach and coaching team they can get. Is it true Eddie is free (don’t snigger, he is an excellent technical backs coach)?

Up in Ulster, the possiblities are myriad – once you meet Humph’s criteria. One suspects Humph will want a young and hungry coach who will bring a new approach and ambition to the squad, like Joe Schmidt at Leinster. A big name like Wayne Smith may bring too much pressure and the risk of going off-message – better to get someone who Humph can trust and who will understand the task at hand. Someone like, say, Matt Sexton? As a former hooker, Sexton could take the forwards and bring in an experienced backs coach to help out. Someone like Eddie (we told you to stop sniggering).

Ludd McGahan Leaves A Mixed Legacy

Ludd McGahan’s departure from Munster won’t see too many tears shed among the Munster faithful.  He has never fully won over the fans in his time there, and for most it will be a case of ‘bring on the new era’.  His defenders will thank him for a good job, but won’t mind too much that he’s going deehn andah.

The truth of the matter is that McGahan’s task was a thankless, maybe even impossible one.  He took over Munster at a time when they were the dominant team in Europe, but had grown old together.  By his second season in charge, most of the core of his team were over the top of a pretty steep hill.  The only way was down.  Plus, he was taking over from Local Hero and Man of the People Declan Kidney.
To make matters worse, the previous management (of which he was a part, it must be said) had done little to manage succession.  Declan Kidney was hugely successful for Munster, but, as a coach, rarely looks too far beyond the next game.  As this superb dissection showed, during his time there, the academy produced next to no players of any quality.
Starter’s orders
The first few months of McGahan’s tenure went pretty swimmingly, though it’s hard to know how much to attribute to him, and how much was the continued good habits of a self-managing squad.  His first Heineken Cup game flirted with disaster, as Munster came within a whisker of losing at home to Montauban’s seconds, but they quickly got their act together, navigating the double header with Clermont Auvergne and dispatching Sale home and away.  They also nearly beat the All Blacks on a famous night in Thomond Park.  By now the Munster machine was purring.  They put together a stirring run of form in both competitions.  Even in the absence of their frontline players – traditionally a time for Munster to fold like a cheap suit – the likes of Mick O’Driscoll and Niall Ronan kept the show on the road.  The 22-5 beating of Leinster and the 43-9 crushing of the Ospreys in the quarter-final were arguably the very peak of their powers.  The Lions selection reflected their machine-like brilliance, and retaining the H-Cup appeared a formality.
Rise of the Blue Meanies Part I

Then something strange happened.  A thoroughly unfancied Leinster, fed on scraps of their horrendous press and the meeja’s Munster love-in, beat them 25-6 in the semi-final.  It was a game which effected a profound change on Irish rugby, and it took Tony McGahan and Munster a long time to recover. 

Over the next 21 months the rot set in.  The following year saw Munster win 9 out of 18 games in the Magners League, somehow squeezing into the newly minted semi-finals, where they were beaten by – not you again – Leinster in a game they never really threatened to win.  It was their third defeat of the season to their rivals – the first was a humiliating 30-0 thumping at a white-hot RDS, and the second a rare loss on their own Limerick patch.   In the Heineken Cup, Munster huffed and puffed, but made it to a semi-final, but  succumbed to a pretty ordinary Biarritz.  Sheer muscle was all Biarritz had, and Munster had nothing to stop it.
Goodbye Generation Ligind
Worse trouble was brewing: Generation Ligind were coming to the end of the road.  Marcus Horan and Denis Leamy’s powers were vastly reduced, John Hayes could give no more, Alan Quinlan was finished as a starter and Jirry Flannery was about to be ruined by injury.  Paul O’Connell was injured and Donncha O’Callaghan was never all that great in the first place.  Almost nothing had been done to ensure the next generation of would-be liginds was in place.
The chickens came home to roost in a disastrous campaign in 2010-2011.  Munster (and Ireland, crucially, for it tied Munster’s hand)  pinned their hopes on Tony Buckley to take over from John Hayes as the country’s premier only tighthead.  Buckley had come off the back of a successful summer tour, where he was one of few players to emerge with credit following an outstanding display of hard carrying and soft hands in New Plymouth.  But there was one problem: he couldn’t scrummage.  Munster lost carelessly to a poor London Irish side and, critically, to Ospreys, with Adam Jones winning the man of the match award without touching the football.  Faced with needing to win in Toulon, Munster went in to meltdown, turning in a shambolic performance and taking a thorough pounding.
Redemption!  Well, sort of
It looked grim for McGahan, and defeat at home to a young Harlequins side in the Amlin Cup was a nadir, but McGahan finally did what he should have done a long time ago and began to dispose of Generation Ligind.  In came some bright new things: Conor Murray, Peter O’Mahony, Simon Zebo and Donncha Ryan.  The Magners League was secured in style, beating newly crowned European kingpins Leinster. In this season’s Heineken Cup, Munster are set fair with a home quarter final and potential home semi-final.  Their maul and lineout are back to something like they used to be, and the scrum rejuvenated by some prime Saffa beef.  But you can’t help but feel McGahan is something of a punch-bag.  When things were going badly, he took the blame; now they’ve picked up, new forwards coach and all round ligind Axel Foley gets the credit.
The natives still aren’t happy though.  Despite winning six from six in the group stages, there’s a feeling that Munster haven’t played terribly well.  They no longer dominate opponents, and tend to eke out wins.  Increasingly, the twin totems of Radge and POC drag the team kicking and screaming to victory.  But, hey – it was ever thus.  Remember Munster’s peak in 2008 & 2009?  It wasn’t all barnstorming victories.  Those with short memories might have forgotten fortunate wins at home to Clermont and Montauban in 2009, and a decidedly shaky semi-final against an unheralded Saracens side in 2008.
Rise of the Blue Meanies Part II
We think it’s fair to conclude that while McGahan hasn’t brought the house down, he has done a decent job in difficult circumstances.  The ire with which he’s regarded in some parts of Munster perhaps has more to do with what’s happening in the blue corner than his own.  Munster fans probably wouldn’t mind a spell of being a bit rubbish, if it didn’t coincide so totally with Leinster’r rise, both on and off the pitch.  When McGahan took over Munster, Leinster were seen as a bit of a joke.  If you’d told fans of either province how the next three seasons would pan out back in 2008, nobody would have believed you.
Back to the Future
We’ll be taking a detailed look at what the Munster job entails later this week.  For whoever comes in to the role, by far the biggest task will be replacing Radge, for two reasons.  First, they have to find someone capable of being as good as him, and there aren’t too many 10s out there that are his equal.  Secondly, at some point they have to phase him out (succession and all that).  As Deccie has found with Ireland, this is harder than it looks.  He has managed part one, but part two is harder.  Any time you lose with Radge on the bench, you can bet his legion of admirers will castigate you for it.  Radge himself is not likely to hand over the shirt too readily, and isn’t shy of doing his bidding in publicIf Munster can manage that most onerous of tasks (they may need to look overseas), they look to just about have enough talent coming through elsewhere to keep them competitive for the medium term.

Beware of Inflating Bubbles

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After Leinster put seven tries on Bath at Lansdowne Road, one radio reporter mentioned that he’d overheard a fan in Kiely’s say ‘They might as well give us the Cup now.’  The bookies have anointed Leinster as probable HEC winners and, in end of year  predictions bloggers and commentators queued up to forecast another Leinster HEC win, with several throwing in a Rabo Pro12 title for good measure.

Things are certainly looking rosy in the Leinster garden.  In spite of injuries to BOD and Shaggy, they look set to secure a home quarter-final in the Heiny, and are nine points clear in the Pro12.  Jamie Heaslip is looking like his old self and Johnny Sexton is looking Europe’s premier fly-half once more.  Fergus McFadden and Eoin O’Malley have pitched in at centre to good effect and the return to fitness of Rob Kearney and to form of LukeFitz have partially offset the backline injuries. 

They can afford to mix up their team according to their opponent, playing a vdMerwe-Browne-McLoughlin-Boss axis for physical away days, and unleashing Church-Toner-Jennings-Reddan at home when they look to play at lightning speed.  Their success is generally built on a high tempo attack and in particular phenomenal aggression at the breakdown, where the likes of Heaslip, Healy and Jennings hurl their bodies into the wreckage to continually generate quick ball.  Even when they butcher all their try opportunities (Bath away) or just play rubbish (Connacht away), they still seem to find a way of winning.

It’s all enough to make this Leinster fan decidedly nervous.  There are umpteen reasons to be cautious.  Firstly, it needs to be borne in mind that the Heineken Cup is a strange competition in many ways, not least its bitty, broken structure.  Once the home quarter-final is secured, the team breaks up for a whole Six Nations.  Who knows how the players will return?  Will Sexton be in the same frame of mind?  Will Ireland’s cumbersome attacking patterns need to be coached out of the players’ systems?  Who’ll be injured?  It’s like qualifying for an entirely different competition.
For another, there’s the all-important (too important to be truthful) semi-final draw.  Leinster, good as they are, would still travel to Clermont or Toulouse as second favourites, and a trip to Saracens would be something of a coin toss.  As champions, they are there to be shot at, and the historical difficulty of retaining the Cup is so well established we need not dwell on it.

It’s also important to note that the Heineken Cup isn’t necessarily, or even all that often, won by the best team, but that which can continually stay alive.  Once you enter the spring, it’s a knockout competition, in which you’re always one game from going out.  Leinster were superb from start to finish last year, and deservedly took the spoils, but it doesn’t always work out that way.  It may be more instructive to look at their 2009 victory, when they were dismal for at least half the group stage, and decidedly fortunate to emerge victorious from a freakish quarter-final against Harlequins. Leinster would also do well to remind themselves of what fate befell Munster that season.  For it was they, at the time, who appeared unbeatable.  After the twin peaks of the 22-5 win over Leinster and the 39-6 thrashing of the Ospreys, back-to-back Heineken Cups seemed inevitable.

Such performances can paper over the cracks a little.  Munster looked flawless at the time, but Michael Cheika recognised that neither of their centres were distributors and ruthlessly exposed them.  Similarly, Leinster have a glaring weakness in the second row, which has yet to be properly tested.  Nathan Hines’ importance to last years’ team is well documented – on top of that, Leo Cullen appears to be in decline.  Devin Toner has improved immeasurably, but will it be enough against a Toulouse or a Clermont (hello again Nathan!)? And don’t forget he is still playing second fiddle to Damian Browne (it feels like we should emphasise his name somehow, but that wouldn’t be entirely fair) on away-days.

Joe Schmidt is an outstanding coach, but this year he has another aspect of the game to manage: expectations.  He must do his utmost to ensure that the warm, fuzzy feeling emanating from the stands doesn’t impact too much on the players’ mindset.  If he can do that, and Leinster do land back-to-back Heineken Cups, their third in four years, with the Pro12 to boot, then we can declare them even better than the great Munster, Wasps, Leicester and Toulouse sides of the professional era.  But not before.

Stop Smoking, Join A Gym, Kick Between Posts

Ah, the festive season! Turkey, toy fights, rum & coke and Barnesy’s autobiography in the stocking – we all know the drill. Oh, and interprovincial rugby.

The twitching corpse of tradition lives on in Irish rugby with the October/December/April series, and there is nothing more seasonal than a few glasses of Pimms at the RDS, a few pints of Guinness at Thomond, a few thumps of the Bible at Ravenhill, or a few lost souls at the Sportsground.

So, how did they go for each of the provinces? We rate the Christmas gifts bestowed by Father IRFU.

Ulster – L Leinster 42-13 W Munster 33-17
On Stephen’s Day, the kids went to RDS and didn’t disgrace themselves by any stretch of the imagination. They looked well-drilled and composed, and were down just 8 points after 60 mins before the predictable onslaught began. After that, they filleted Munster up front and looked very threatening with ball in hand – you had a recollection of last season when a stuttering first half of the season was turned around in the New Year. Ruan Pienaar is now back and with most of the rest of the playoff contenders down key men while Ulster welcome them back, is there a possibility of simliar run to last season? They will look for a semi-final not against Leinster, and hope Andrew Trimble is on to the right man upstairs when they go to the Marcel Michelin.
New Year’s Resolution for 2012: Put together a run of wins.  Ulster are seven points off the playoffs and an extended run is required to propel them up the table.

Munster – W Connacht 24-9, L Ulster 33-17
Something of a curates egg for Munster – a very poor Connacht were easily swatted aside in a game they learned little about themselves in, but they were bossed around in Ravenhill in a game reminiscent of a different era. The scrum was bullied, Duncan Williams was awful, and Ian Keatley looked what he really is – a 10 who is still learning his trade. On a brighter note, Earls was back – and showed beautiful hands for set up one of the tries in the Connacht match. However, judging by some of the performances by the other outside backs, they need three of him. And he is still defensively suspect in a key position. It’s an important few weeks for Munster – falter in the HEC (by which we mean 5 points or less in 2 games) and a trip to Toulouse or Clermont beckons. So, just the right time to have your most dangerous finisher missing tackles in the midfield, eh!
New Year’s Resolution for 2012: Develop an attack.  Their pack have manned up well so far, but their back play is still clueless.  They’ll need to get some coherence for the sharp end of the season.

Leinster – W Ulster 42-13, W Connacht 15-13
In general, Leinster are motoring so well at the moment that even Gerry is conceding they are “almost Toulouse-like”. However, despite the wins, this wasn’t the most satisfactory Christmas in D4 – a very experienced front 8 took far too long to subdue the Ravens, and the main worries (replacing Hines, BOD and Shaggy) are still leaving a too-much-turkey feeling in the stomach. But that’s a measure of the sky-high expectations. They will be hoping Leo Cullen recovers the form of May and not December 2011, and that talk of a double does not get too far out of hand. In truth, Joe could do with expectations being dampened, so he might be a little happier after the Great Escape of Galway. And to be more truthful, if it’s going to be a HEC semi-final trip to Toulouse or Clermont (or Wembley to meet Saracens), they will need their A game, and even that may not suffice in France.
New Year’s Resolution for 2012: Tighten up on D.  Leinster’s two wins showcased their superior squad depth, but they have leaked more tries this season than last.  If they are to achieve back-to-back HEC’s, there’ll be no place for soft tries.

Connacht – L Munster 24-9, L Leinster 15-13
Plus ca change, plus c’est le meme chose. A shockingly poor display against Munster (it was almost as if they felt it would be impolite to ruin The Bull’s swansong by trying) was followed by a tough and gutsy one against Leinster … with exactly the same outcome – another defeat. Elwood is all optimism but when the focus isn’t there, they are rubbish. The attacking patterns are appalling and they really look drained – the losing sequence is taking it out of them. Given the size and make-up of the squad, Eric was probably hoping for 6 to 7 league wins to bank at this stage. Instead, they have just 3, and despite the fact they won’t lose (m)any players during the 6N, it’s hard to see what will be the catalyst for a turnaround. If Aironi get their freak on, it could be Connacht returning to familiar barrel-scraping territory in April.
New Year’s Resolution for 2012: Where to begin?  Connacht just have to get a win from somewhere to break the losing streak.  Improved place kicking would help.  They travel to Aironi next – lose that and they’re in trouble.