Leinster Sign McCarthy

Mike McCarthy has signed for Leinster for next season, in what’s bound to be a controversial and emotion-stirring move.  On the surface it looks like Ireland’s biggest and most successful province has gone poaching the best player from the weakest and least resourced, which doesn’t look very nice, but it’s worth taking some time to see if that is the whole story.

First of all, it’s necessary to say McCarthy is a terrific signing for Leinster.  He’s exactly what they’ve been looking for to fill the Nathan Hines-shaped void in their second row.  He’s a superb footballer, he’s tough, he’s experienced, he’s in his prime, he’s a tighthead-side scrummager and he’s really, really, ridiculously good looking (in fact, maybe he’s more of a replacement for Trevor Hogan than Nathan Hines).

But is it fair game for Leinster to go and take him off Connacht?  First of all, Mike McCarthy is out of contract at the end of the season, so he is not bound to Connacht, and is entitled to move to any other team that chooses to offer terms – he’s a free agent. Secondly, he is (naturally) entitled to get the best deal for himself and his career.  He’s now an established international player and his stock has never been higher – playing with Leinster represents a chance to compete for silverware and enhance his international credentials.  Connacht are having a good season and are improving, but there is no guarantee they’ll be in the Heineken Cup next year – and, at any rate, Connacht players have not been popular under the present international management – moving to Leinster has something of an international insurance policy about it.

Is it fair to compare McCarthy’s move to the experience of Carr, Hagan and to a lesser extent Cronin since making the move from west to east?  Well, McCarthy will be going to Leinster as a first team player, and an important one at that – the other three came as backup (at best), with an understanding that further development was required.  The media coverage of Carr, Hagan and Cronin’s Leinster careers has at times been bewlidering, painting them as hopeless backups who would have been better staying put. Yet Cronin gets regular match-time and has been a success with Leinster. Admittedly, Carr and Hagan have not – but they have hardly helped themselves by performing so poorly.  Leinster currently have an outside-back injury crisis – had Fionn Carr shown any sort of reliability or try-scoring form he would be starting against Clermont this weekend.  But he hasn’t, so he isn’t.

So it checks out on the player’s side, but what about the big meanies from Dublin 4?  Have they behaved appropriately?  Judging by Connacht’s press release, they appear to think not.

But to answer this, you have to look at the structure of Irish rugby.  The provinces are in active competition with one another, not collaboration.  You can argue the rights and wrongs of this, but that being the playing field, Leinster are perfectly entitled to offer terms to an out-of-contract player.  It appears this is something the IRFU are trying to fix, and according to Peter O’Reilly’s recent scoops, the newly appointed Director of Rugby will be responsible for managing the spread of talent among the provinces and increase the levels of co-operation between them.  This can only be good for Connacht; the IRFU might encourage the likes of Lewis Stevenson or Ian Nagle to travel West were it in place now.

It’s worth going back in time to when Nathan Hines did leave Leinster – Munster at the time had the top 4 Irish second rows in the country, judging by the international pecking order – Paul O’Connell, Donncha O’Callaghan, Micko and Donnacha Ryan were the second row forwards selected for the 2010 November internationals. If there was an overarching Pro Rugby Tsar, he would probably have asked Ryan (4th in the Munster pecking order) to move to Leinster to replace Hines. So if Ryan were playing for Leinster now, McCarthy might not be moving!

The IRFU centrally contracts some players, and from what we can gather from this shadowy process, encourages them to locate where they have the best chance of first-team rugby, but McCarthy does not appear to have been offered a central contract.  He’s been offered terms by Leinster rugby, so the IRFU (who Connacht say they tried to recruit to keep the player at Connacht) probably couldn’t do an awful lot.  Unfortunately for Connacht, they probably weren’t that pushed either, and presumably have no qualms about McCarthy playing at the highest level, where he will be a guaranteed starter.  Connacht have always been under-resourced by the IRFU, and Leinster probably know that if they go fishing, they will catch.  That is unfortunate, but it is the system that is in place –for now at least – it’s the IRFU who choose to under-resource Connacht.

So while one does feel for Connacht in losing a player that they have developed and brought to prominence, there is movement in the other direction.  Connacht were the beneficieries of Leinster’s scouting when they signed sturdy tighthead prop Nathan White this summer.  It would be no surprise to see a couple of Leinster’s younger players pitch up in the west next season (Jordi Murphy for example), and perhaps one or two of those signed from Connacht in the last couple of seasons will return there.

We don’t expect Connacht fans to be happy about the news.  Munster fans will probably be even more unhappy, but should probably ask themselves how they’d feel if David MacSharry signed for them tomorrow.  For Leinster fans, the news is massive, going a long way to shore up what looked a significant hole in their squad.

Munster Fly-Half Steers Team To Famous Victory

The good ship Heineken is cruising along nicely, and the hopeless rats are deserting at a cracking pace – after this weekend, the list of realistic quarter finalists stands at a desultory 10 – Ulster and Quins will surely go through alone; and while Toulon, Sarries and Clermont hold the whip hand in their pools, Montpellier, Munster and Leinster are still in touch and have definite best runners-up potential. In the Pool of Death, the Ospreys are virtually gone, leaving Toulouse and Leicester to fight for top spot, and also contest for a best runners-up spot. Racing Metro and Castres are still alive, but they would much prefer to do it in the Top14, and may see HEC progression as counter-productive – the cream is rising to the top.

It was a good weekend for Romanian and Spanish rugby – Bucharest’s win over Agen had echoes of the 80s, when the Mighty Oaks had the Frenchies’ number, and Declan Cusack’s Bizkaia Gernika did what their fellows Basques in Biarritz and Bayonne couldn’t, and won a game – kudos all round. Rather less encouraging was the performance of the representatives from some of European rugby’s more prominent countries – after 3 rounds of the HEC, all the Welsh, Scottish and Italian sides are out of contention for qualification. In a miserable, no win 7 loss weekend for the Pro12 Patsies, Hard-Scrummaging Scarlets and Glasgow’s losses at home to English debutants Exeter and French Euro-bunnies Castres were notable low points. For the second year in three, we will have no Welsh quarter-finalists, Embra’s success last year looks increasingly like a flash in the pan and Italy continues its wait for a knock-out representative – this is not a sustainable divvy-up of the spoils.

All week, we had heard the repeated mantra of the Europe-dominating ambition of Saracens – from the cheerleading media in Blighty talking up their chances in Thomond, to the cheerleading media in Tara Street looking to underpin Munster’s underdog credentials. In the event, their lack of ambition on the field was stunning – for a team with such an array of talented backs, they play a horrendous brand of rugby. It’s hard to credit that a backline containing the likes of Hodgson, Farrell, Strettle, Goode and Ashton can score just 9 tries in 10 Premiership games. Do the top brass at Saracens really think that the type of 10 man dross that was in vogue 4 years ago is really a realistic gameplan for HEC success? If they do, their “European ambition” is just like the Northampton pack – all talk and no trousers.

With Ulster odds-on to be among the top 4 seeds going into the HEC quarter-finals, and the ERC stipulation on a minimum 15,000 capacity for knock-out games, the race is on to get Ravers up to capacity by April. Ulster want nothing less than to win their pool in style, only to draw a best runner-up like their modern-day nemesis, Leinster, and have to effectively give up home advantage. Expect Christmas to be cancelled in Belfast – the quid pro quo will be a first HEC knock-out game at Ravers since January 1999 and a serious tilt at bringing the trophy to Ravers for the second time, and to Ireland for a remarkable seventh.

As for Leinster, yesterday’s game was pretty instructive – Leinster were as “there for the taking” as they are going to be, yet Clermont looked a little intimidated – there is no doubt the regular wins for the D4 goys over the Bananamen have got into their heads. If Leinster end up going back to the Marcel Michelin in a quarter-final, they will be confident they have their number. Leinster won’t be happy at the prospect coming out of the pool in second, but they are probable seventh seeds and will fancy their chances away to Clermont, Ulster, Harlequins and Saracens. Only Toulon represent an intimidating journey into the unknown – it’s a fascinating sub-plot to the jostling for quarter-final seeding – third place might be a better place to be than second.

And finally, to Connacht, whose victory over fading heavyweights Biarritz was possibly the highlight of the weekend.  17 of their 22 points came from the boot of Dan Parks, including two sweetly struck drop goals.  In a season when foreign signings have been more under the microscope than ever, he is pound for pound th best bit of business by an Irish province this summer.  He is exactly what Connacht needed at this point in their development and is performing an invaluable job for them, turning the pressure they generate into points on the scoreboard.

The result certainly had an effect on our Munster-Leinster collision course.  It more or less takes Biarritz out of the equation, as they can only achieve a maximum of 20 points.  So, perhaps both Leinster and Munster could qualify as best runners-up?  Perhaps, but it’s looking like we might have been a bit dismissive of Pool 2’s chances of producing a second qualifier.  We thought Ospreys would be a contender in a three-way tussle in that group, but it doesn’t look like panning out that way.  With Ospreys now all but doomed, both Toulouse and Leicester could win there and set about achieving some pretty high points totals.

PS the “think of the fans” argument for not sending off players who commit dangerous tackles is one of the most annoying memes of modern times. After Lloyd Williams was sent off for dumping Benoit Paillauge on his noggin, Ieuan Evans and Paul Wallace moaned about how it was never a red, and the Sky line at full-time was how disappointing it all was for the fans to see a refereeing decision “ruin the game”. It prompted us to imagine this hypothetical conversation between fans:

Fan 1: Oh look, Player A is going to be in a wheelchair for the rest of his life after being dumped on his head.

Fan 2: Who cares about that, I’m just hoping the referee doesn’t send off Player B – I paid £15 to see this!

Twenty20 Vision

It’s that time of year again – the December Heineken Cup double headers when the Irish get to teach the French culture and passion – the magic in the air (thanks, Gerry) of Irish provincial grounds has those renowned philistines in Biarritz and Bayonne setting down their hatchets and hams and asking could they be more like us.

The December pair of games often decide the fates of teams, either by gaining momentum with two quick wins, or edging an opponent out of the race over two legs. The relatively short break between these rounds, and the January games is an important factor too – teams can maintain form better over a few weeks of holidays than a month-long international break, and, conversely, a pair of disappointing results is hard to come back from.

This season’s competition is no different, and the three big Irish provinces face their biggest pool rivals in the crucial double headers, but from drastically different places. If Ulster manage one win and a losing bonus point, they will be on 14 points at Christmas with two eminently winnable games to come and their fate very much in their own hands – they will then have the pool more or less wrapped up (barring any disasters away to Castres), and will be targeting a home quarter final. They will, of course, be looking to win in Franklin’s Gardens, but these Saints have their moments and a losing bonus point would be no disgrace. Still, Ulster are in charge of their pool and have room for manouevre, unlike Leinster and Munster.

Adding up the numbers, it seems Munster and Leinster should be keeping a closer eye on each other than you might think, because of how the other pools are turning out. In Pool 6, Nouveau Riche Toulon are on the verge of disappearing into the distance – a double header with bluffers Sale Sharks and at least 9 points awaits – and the other teams are so rubbish/uninterested [delete as appropriate] they have no chance of scraping together enough points to push for qualification as a best runner-up. Pool 2 is the precise opposite – Toulouse, Leicester and the Ospreys are going to go down to the wire, meaning probably only one team is likley to get through, particularly with Treviso dangerous at home. Pool 3 is one where we will  see the first of the qualifying runners-up  – Harlequins and Biarritz have doubles with Zebre and Connacht respectively and we expect four wins for the bigger boys and both should be sitting pretty over egg nog with Granny.

So if the second runner-up isn’t going to come from Toulon or Ulster’s groups, or the Group of Death, who does that leave? Right! Its Leinster and Munster’s pools! What fun. Could the two Irish giants be on a collision course of sorts, without actually facing each other.  It looks like it.  We have Clermont and Saracens strong favourites in both pools – Clermont have a 2 point lead  and revenge in their sights, and Saracens are 3 points ahead in a pool with 2 rubbish teams in it. So the famously friendly provinces could be scrapping for the final slot in this years knock-out stages.

So how will it pan out?

Leinster are currently on 8 points after 2 games. They will have as their base case scenario:

  • Clermont (a) – 0 points
  • Clermont (h) – 4 points
  • Hard-scrummaging Scarlets (h) – 4 points
  • Exeter (a) – 4 points

A losing bonus point, to be truthful, is a tough ask in the Marcel Michelin, and is odds against, despite their recent record against les Jaunards. Five wins will give them 20 points, with home to the Scarlets being the obvious target for a bonus point to get to 21.  There’s scope to get up to 23 if they can get something this weekend, and perhaps if Exteter are a little punch-drunk in mid-January.

As for Munster, they have 6 after 2 games – 1 win and 2 bonus points. Here’s what they will look for, as a base case:

  • Saracens (h) – 4 points, tears and tales of Keith Wood and John Langford besting Pienaar and co
  • Saracens (a) – 1 point, tears and emotion from Gerry about famous away performances
  • Embra (a) – 4 points
  • Racing Metro (h) – 5 points from the French bunnies, tears, and triumphant recall of famous days past

That’s 20 as well! Rob Penney and his merry men will target pointless (in all senses) Embra as a potential extra bonus point to get to 21 themselves, but it’s hard to see them getting above this without beating Saracens twice, thereby winning the group and making the calculations irrelevant. Wow – isn’t this fun? Now, if they have the same number of points, it goes to tries scored, and Munster currently lead that metric 6-1, but they have less margin for error. Us? We hope it goes to the wire [well, Egg does; Palla just wants Leinster through and for his heart rate to stay below 180 in the process], and wouldn’t it be ironic if Leinster played their final game against Exeter knowing what they had to do – say, score 4 tries and win by 27 points or something unlikely like that? Imagine how miraculous that would be!

Wednesday Shorts

It’s the middle of the week and there’s plenty to wrap up before moving on to the Heineken Cup, so here’s a little about a lot.

Go and Learn To Beat France

Ireland have been pitted against France in the 2015 World Cup draw, and our history against them, especially in the World Cup itself, is fairly lamentable – the names Emile N’Tamack, Frederick Michalak and Vincent Clerc may ring some pretty painful bells.  Still, at least it gives us three years to work out how to beat them.  Ireland don’t really do ‘building for the World Cup’ in the same way as some other nations target it from far out, but you could be forgiven for thinking the gameplan they had going in to the last World Cup (essentially choke tackle everything in sight plus Give the Ball to Seanie or Fez) was tailored specifically to beating the Aussies.  It was certainly fit for purpose, but when it came to doing away with Wales, it was exposed as too narrow and one-dimensional.  Ireland now have three years to put together a gameplan that will beat France, because beat them we must or the BNZers await in the quarter finals.  Choke tackling probably won’t be as high on the list of priorities this time around.  Who knows, pace and offloading could – and should – come to the fore.  And somehow finding a way to deal with Louis Picamoles.

En-ger-land

Whatever you make of Lancaster’s mob, and whatever the details of the Kiwis’ succumbing to norovirus in the week, that was a performance to stir the soul.  English rugby will do well to keep its feet on the ground, but it’s a win worthy of a little getting carried away.  England’s commitment to the breakdown was especially commendable.  Wood, Launchbury and Youngs were outstanding in that area, repeatedly slowing down the Kiwis’ ball.  Whatever about Ashton’s loathsome swan dive, we were especially happy for two of the good guys in the team: Chris Robshaw for responding so well after his leadership credentials were questioned and Tom Wood for his best performance since being out for so long with injury.  Wood is a class act and had the grace through the adrenalin rush to wish the womens’ team the best of luck in his man of the match interview.

Professionalism Calleth

And so, the IRFU hurtle towards professionalism, with an Elite Performance Director soon to be appointed.  The role appears to involve developing and running the game, appointing coaches and trying to get the national team and provinces to work together rather than driving wedges between one another.  Time is very much of the essence – particularly, we imagine, with Deccie and his coaching team’s contracts up at the end of the year.  The role appears so well suited to Conor O’Shea it’s almost silly.  He has links to both Leinster and Munster and appears to have vision and terrific organisational capabilities.  Plus, he’s a smoothie who’d be highly capable at dealing with the public.  It’s a no brainer.  Could he be prised away from the Harlequins project for what would be a pivotal role in Irish rugby?  As Irish rugby fans, we would certainly hope so.

Filling Spaces

So, we turn our attentions to the Heineken Cup.  We’ll be looking in depth at the significance of the double headers on thursday, but a quick look at selection issues at the provinces is in order.  Ulster had the luxury of auditioning both Gilroy and Trimble for the play on the wing opposite Tommy Bowe, but Munster and Leinster appear not to be so fortunate right now.  In the back five for Munster, and the backline for Leinster, it’s become a case of finding enough good players to fill the spots, such are the injuries they’ve to withstand.  For Munster, O’Connell, Stander, Dougall and possibly Niall Ronan are all out, while Leinster must make do without O’Driscoll, Rob Kearney, Eoin O’Malley and Luke Fitzgerald.  We expect Munster to line out with O’Callaghan-Ryan-O’Callaghan-O’Mahony-Cawlin from 4 to 8, and Leinster to run with Madigan-Kearney-McFadden-D’arcy-Nacewa from 15-11.  A daunting weekend lies ahead for both.

Cultural Learnings of the November Internationals

Once again, we are utterly perplexed about this Ireland side? Are they the dynamic and creative team that overwhelmed and ran up a record score against (an admittedly tired and disinterested) Argentina? Or are they the lamentable and unsure bunnies who rolled over for the Springbok pack to tickle their collective bellies? The wild swings in performance level continue, and there is little point in trying to reach concrete conclusions about a group who frustrate and delight at the same time, so let’s just try and piece together what parts of the mystery are less enigmatic and which are as puzzling as ever.

What we Learned From the November Series

Yoof, Innit.  And not before time. Declan Kidney has taken quite a bit of heat for his reluctance to involve younger players who aren’t from Munster, and Craig Gilroy showed the potential that exists in throwing younger chaps who have yet to nail down a provincial shirt in at the deep end. Against Argentina, Gilroy offered an entirely new threat to that posed by other Irish backs – a geniunely pacy winger who is elusive in contact and runs intelligent lines. Within 10 minutes of his full debut he had a try in his pocket and the Irish rugby fans at his feet – a star in the making. It won’t be long either until his young colleagues Paddy Jackson, Luke Marshall and Iain Henderson are in the full side – the imminent retirement of Radge, succession questions at inside centre and need for a top class dynamic lock will see to that. The sons of Ulster might be arriving at just the right time to give Deccie’s reign a jolt of electricity that it sorely needs

Goodnight Sweetheart. In the two big games Ireland played, the man who used to boss the best in Europe around came on for a 10 minute cameo, and on both occasions, produced plays so lamentable that if they were produced by someone at the other end of his career we would hear nothing but their unsuitability to international rugby. Kicking the ball away when your team needs a try and chipping it into the grateful hands of an opposition player (leading to a try) illustrate that the great man’s international career is at an end. [As a side note, we loved how the RTE commentators studiously overlooked the errors on both occasions.]  It demonstrated a streak of selfishness, trying the million dollar play to grab the potential headlines, when he should have been playing the team game.  For 10 years, his decision-making was flawless, now it’s going-to-gone.  He has nothing more to offer, and it’s sad to see it end like this. In the pack, Donncha O’Stakhanov might have been the first sub (and only sub for 15 minutes) introduced against the Pumas, but his international career is surely over. For all the sterling service he has given, he doesn’t offer anything like he used to, or like the alternatives do, even (especially?) in the absence of Paul O’Superman. Let them move on with some dignity.

Provincial Form Counts, At Last. For the last two years, Chris Henry and Mike McCarthy have been doing the grunt work on the provincial circuit and proving themselves capable against the best teams in Europe, but for no international reward. With the injury jinx hitting Deccie’s usual servants, opportunities arose and were grasped with both hands. Competition for places is crucial in any setup, and the folly of ignoring the players playing best in their position in previous series has been laid bare by the ease with which this pair stepped up to international level.

Murray and Sexton can play together.  Conor Murray has endured a difficult twelve months and, outside him, Johnny Sexton has cut a frustrated figure for Ireland.  Too often, Murray’s first thought is to run, and his second to pass.  Sexton is the sort of general who demands centre stage – ‘give me the ball and I will direct things’.  Against Argentina, Murray was excellent.  His running was used as a strength, sucking in defenders, but rather than use it to run up blind alleys, he created space, and time, and Sexton used it to glorious effect.  The Leinster fly-half has a clear run at the Lions No.10 shirt, and no other player is even remotely in the picture.

Old fashioned wingers still at a premium.  The modern game this, how is his defence that, is he big enough the other.  It’s reassuring to see that a willowy wing who can change direction quickly is still an invaluable commodity in a world where 110kg monsters occupy every channel.  Gilroy’s electric feet and finisher’s pace are terrifically old-fashioned.  A couple of other impish speedsters are coming up on the radar in Irish rugby; Luke O’Dea and Andrew Conway.  Any rugby fan with a beating heart can only wish to see more of this unique brand of genius.

What we still don’t know

Are Ireland any good?  The series finished on a high with a memorable victory and a great performance.  But we know all too well the problem with this team, and it precludes us from getting too excited.  The pattern of occasional brilliance, usually when painted into a corner surrounded by swathes of mediocrity remains unbroken.  No team is properly consistent at test level – even New Zealand blow cold now and then – but it’s hard to think of too many whose performance graph waves so violently as Ireland’s.  Maybe Wales.  It’s only when we see how Ireland perform in Cardiff in the Six Nations that we can get any more clarity.  That’s a couple of months away.  Until then, the Irish team remains as enigmatic as ever.

Is Kidney on his last legs? For a decade, Declan Kidney has built success upon success with a relatively simple formula – enable key players with big personalities to play to their strengths, and let the silverware flow. His coaching style is hands-off with an impenetrable exterior masking a completely impenetrable interior. The formula worked well in Munster and with an Ireland team backboned by sons of Munster, but has struggled to adapt well to a Leinster-dominated team more used to something more expansive and highly instructive coaching. If Kidney can adapt his approach to cater for a side where the established players are Leinster and the young guns Ulster-based (where Deccie’s cute hoorism is particularly denigrated), he might be able to move the team on. The signs are both good (Johnny Sexton admitted the November camp was the best he’d been involved in) and bad (who exactly coached what?) at the same time. Deccie essentially needs a Grand Slam or he’s gone – it looks highly unlikely, but it would be foolish to say completely impossible.

Who will be Lions captain? At times this series looked like an attempt by players to play themselves off the plane.  Sam Warburton’s credentials are receding by the second and while Chris Robshaw has always looked more midweek captain than test team leader, his wrong-headed decision-making against South Africa gave his critics some easy ammunition.  None of the obvious Irish candidates, Paul O’Connell, Brian O’Driscoll, Rory Best or Rob Kearney were fit.  Jamie Heaslip advanced his credentials to a moderate degree in the Argentina game, while Johnny Sexton looks increasingly like a real candidate for the role.  We’ve always suspected he’s a touch too cranky for the manly chats with the referee, but he is a natural leader and one of few players nailed on for a test start.

Who will win the Six Nations?  Open season.  Can Ireland stop flattering to deceive?  Will Wales bounce back from their run of defeats or have they had their moment?  What of England?  They look close to being a good team, but it’s always just out of reach.  France had the best series of any of the Northern hemisphere, winning all three games with a rejuvenated Michalak at 10 and a lip-smacking backrow of Ouedraogo (finally!), Nyanga and Picamoles.  But they must travel to Dublin and London, so it’s a tough campaign for them. And besides, it’s France, so they could be rubbish againin six months time.

What happens back at the provinces?  Those with especially short memories might have forgotten that before November, Donnacha Ryan was having an anonymous season on the blindside with Munster.  He needs to get back to playing in his best position regularly.  Hopefully the arrival of CJ Stander will facilitate this.  Up North, Craig Gilroy’s return to regular starter is a pressing requirement – on the evidence of November, the mind boggles that Timble is picked ahead of him, but Trimble is in for his defence in a backline that contains shorties like Paddys Jackson and Wallace and occasional revolving door Jared Payne.  If Anscombe succumbs to pressure to advance Luke Marshall’s education with Heineken Cup starts, this would actually facilitate Gilroy’s advancement, as Marshall, as well as being an expansive gainline merchant, is a big (ish) heavy chap.

Is Keith Earls the Odd Man Out?  Keith Earls singularly failed to grab his chance at 13, and could find himself struggling for selection in the Six Nations, when BOD will be back.  His much-stated desire to play 13 should preclude his selection on the wing, where one of Gilroy and Zebo will have to miss out in any case.  He could be in a tight spot … unless BOD continues to do his best to play himself off the team!

Mythbusters Part Deux

In and around any international series, it has become inevitable that a number of bizarre viewpoints take on the status of hard facts, whether by being repeated by influential media personnel, through selective memories of those involved or good old-fashioned provincial bias.  Last season it was decreed that Ireland needed huge backs and that Sean O’Brien couldn’t play openside.  This year, a few more are circulating already.

Myth Number 1: Keith Earls can’t play 13

Perpetrators: A lot of people who don’t come from Limerick

Last week our comments section became weighed down with folk of the fixed opinion that ‘Keith Earls can’t/shouldn’t/isn’t a natural/isn’t a test class 13’.    Now, we don’t want to be picking a fight to our loyal readership, but we’re just not buying this one. 

Lets start by going back to last year when we posted this piece. Since then (in fact, pretty much since the World Cup), Earls has done everything asked of him.  He shone like a beacon amid Munster’s abysmal back play last season, all from the position of 13, and in spite of incompetence all around him. He threw in a shocker of a performance at home to Castres, but since that day has been excellent.  Remember the pivotal Ulster game in Thomond Park?  Earls was brilliant: he showed quick hands to get Zebo into the corner for his try and the highlight was his sumptuous pass to Felix Jones late in the second half, which looked to have put the full-back into open country, only for him to inexplicably drop the ball.

In the Six Nations he performed admirably in the role, in the absence of O’Driscoll, and generally won good reviews for his performances.  His good form in the role continued into this season, when he looked pin-sharp before his injury. The argument that he can’t actually do it is based on a few things: that Earls lacks the size to play the role, that he is a poor defender and that he lacks the distribution and awareness of space.

On the last point, we would direct anyone of this opinion to the video below, of a try in Ravenhill this season.  Yes, you can prove anything with a highlights reel, but in this try Earls touches the ball three times, and every touch shows such natural footballing intuition that it can only come from a player with keen awareness of space and good distribution.  His first is an expertly timed round the corner pass to put Billy Holland into a gap, his second a beautiful, fast pass in front of Laulala to open up the space out wide.  Does he stay take a moment to marvel at the splendour of his skill?  He does not, instead making a beeline to support the men out wide and gets on the end of Hurley’s inside pass to score a try.  It’s the sort of skillset that can’t be taught or manufactured.  It’s classic midfield play.

Then we have the size argument.  True, he is not a huge man.  Keith Earls tips the scales at 90kg.  That’s three kilos lighter than both Brian O’Driscoll and Fergus McFadden and four lighter than Wesley Fofana, who plays in the traffic-heavy 12 channel.  But more importantly, the size argument is frequently ill-deployed.  Most ‘Earls is not a 13’ campaigners are happy to continue to select him on the wing.  But in these days of George Norths and Tim Vissers, the wings are no more suitable for lightweights than the midfield.  Either you can defend well enough to play in the three-quarter line or you can’t, and we’d argue that Earls can.

There’s a sense that certain high profile bloopers have been over-played – compare and contrast the reactions to the Manu Incident in August 2011 and Gareth Maule’s burning of BOD a few weeks ago. Incident 1 has been re-treaded ad infitum (and we are as guilty as anyone in that regard), yet Incident 2 is written off as an obvious freak, something that will never happen again – which of course it probably was, since those things happen to everyone from time-to-time, even BOD. And Keith Earls.

Earls has shown in the last 12 months he has the football to play at 13, and he looks like he has the mental too – we’d pick him at 13 for this series, in spite of the form of Darren Cave – he’s one of our best players and its his best position.

Myth 2: Someone Other Than Jamie Heaslip Should Be Captain if Paul O’Connell isn’t Fit

Perpetrator: Many hacks, most notably Keith Wood

Brian O’Driscoll has been Ireland’s captain for over a decade. His on-field pack lieutenant for most of that period has been Paul O’Connell. Rory Best is the other key member of the leadership triumvirate for the national side. So who should lead the team if all 3 are out?

The first and most obvious requirement is that they are actually in the team in the first place, and are guaranteed their place, not just now but for the medium-term – there is little point in giving the armband to Dorce, no matter how well his is playing. So, on that basis, who are the contenders? We’ll go with Cian Healy, Mike Ross, Stephen Ferris, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip, Johnny Sexton, Tommy Bowe or Rob Kearney – there are no other automatic selections with a fully-fit panel.

Fez, O’Brien and Kearney are injured, so they are out. Mike Ross is a key player in a key position, but is 32 and has shown no desire or aptitude for captaincy in the past – he’s out too, and Tommy Bowe, for all his qualities, is patently not major-general material. Which leaves Healy, Heaslip and Sexton.

We’d argue that Healy is just too individual and introspective to be the national captain – plus we aren’t sure he would want it. He’s a quiet and determined chap on the pitch, not quite a Johnno-esque over-the-top type – we don’t think he’s a candidate. Sexton is a key player and probable Lions outhalf, should now be a member of the inner sanctum, but he’s simply too cranky on the pitch to the the Man. His leadership qualities aren’t in doubt – look at his many inspirational performances for Leinster – but he has enough on his plate at out-half – keep him close, but don’t let him toss the coin. Which leaves Heaslip – a natural leader, captaincy experience, guaranteed his place on the team and a mature head with over 50 Test caps. He’s the only credible captain.

Woody’s contribution to the debate was to suggest Sexton or Peter O’Mahony. Sexton’s qualities are discussed above, but its simply madness to consider POM. The hype surrounding O’Mahony has done him no favours, resulting in unrealistic expectations, being shunted back and forth across the backrow, merely allowing top-class opponents (Ruchie, Adam Thompson) to highlight his weaknesses, and being rested at Deccie’s behest when playing might be in his longer-term interests. O’Mahony might make a brilliant Ireland captain in the future, but that day, if/when it comes, will be at least 5 years away – right now, he should be concentrating on getting a position, gaining experience, playing time and maturity, and listening to the Mole instead of Keith Wood.

Note: we aren’t totally down on the idea that a long-term view should be taken, but a balance needs to be struck. If we were only thinking about RWC19, why not go the whole hog and give Iain Henderson the armband?

Myth 3: Ireland’s Management Are In No Way Responsible for the Tighthead Crisis

Perpetrator: Largely Gerry Thornley

After Michael Bent’s incredible call-up to the Ireland squad shortly after landing in Dublin airport, its hard to know who was more incredulous – the fans or the player himself. However, after a bit of thought, its not clear what alternatives the management had – Deccie Fitz is notoriously injury prone, so a third tighthead was needed, and who else was there? Ronan Loughney is behind Nathan White in Connacht, and Stephen Archer is not at Pro12 level, never mind international.

So Bent gets the nod, which is fine. But how did this situation arise? Why simple, say Gerry et al – “there was a lot of investment made in Tony Buckley, which didn’t pay off”. Hmmmm, true, but only to a point. A more accurate and complete description would be “the IRFU and the Ireland management team made a lot of investment in Tony Buckley, which didn’t pay off”.

So Ireland’s Tighthead Crisis is not, after all, completely exogenous to management. In fact, they, to a degree, are responsible for the situation they now find themselves in. Mike Ross was completely ignored until he became last man standing (February 2011, after Mushy failed to make it 80 minutes in a Woflhounds game) and the November 2010 series was a travesty for tighthead development. Is it any wonder we find ourselves where we are?

Now, to be fair to Deccie, its not like there are piles of tightheads whose development he is ignoring – he only gets to ignore them when they make it into the Leinster/Ulster/Connacht teams. The blame for the lack of youngsters coming through lies largely at the door of 10 Lansdowne Road – at the blazers who run the IRFU. There is no scrum czar, no national director of scrummaging, and no development plan for promising tightheads. Adam Macklin played 8 in school, not because he couldn’t push in the scrum, because he is built like a tank and since, for safety reasons, you can’t scrummage at full power in the schools game, so Methody could best utilise him at 8 – if there was a professional director of scrummaging, he may have been far keener on Macklin playing in his proper position. Would he have been put at 8 in New Zealand?

We’re going to be stuck with this situation of digging up graves in the Southern Hemisphere to find Irish grannies until we put a proper professional development structure in place to develop props. As O’Reilly said yesterday, the amateur hour IRFU are an increasing anachronism in a professional game – time they did the likes of Macklin and Tadgh Furlong a favour and put their careers in the hands of someone who knows what they are doing.

Square Pegs, Round Holes

Yesterday we pored over Ireland’s options in the forward units, decrying a lack of beef available to replace the injured players.  But in the backline, there’s a whole other set of problems.  Rob Kearney and Brian O’Driscoll are injured, robbing the team of its captain and its mainstay at full-back, and best player over the last year.

With Geordan Murphy retired and Luke Fitzgerald and Gavin Duffy injured, Ireland don’t have much in the way of experienced back-ups at full-back.  Meanwhile, replacing BOD in the centre is not a task that comes easily to anyone.  Before looking at what options are available (and we do have some), here are a few important factors that need to be considered when trying to patch together a back division for next week’s test.

  1. South Africa kick a lot.  The Saffers love nothing more than booting the ball into orbit and sending their flying wings (with enormous flankers in hot pursuit) chasing after it.  Whoever is selected at full-back should know they’ll be in for a long day if they are not comfortable fielding high balls.  This does suggest a preference for a specialist at 15, as opposed to shoe-horning someone into the role.
  2. Gordon D’arcy will start.  D’arcy has copped a lot of flak for some less than eye-catching form in green, and he was pretty useless in the Six Nations.  But every time we think it’s safe to strike a line through his name he comes back again.  His form for Leinster since returning from injury has been excellent and merits selection for the first test in the series.
  3. Conor Murray will start.  From Stuart Barnes to the dogs on the street, just about everyone wants to see Sexton paired with his provincial team-mate Eoin Reddan, whose game is tailor made to get Johnny on the front foot and in control.  But Kidney and co., already mindful of a beef-deficiency, will stick with Conor Murray.  Before groaning loudly, it’s worth noting that Murray is playing reasonably well so far this season, his Paris horror-show aside.
  4. The Saffer back-line is big, but not monstrous.  Jean de Villiers is a big fellow but their biggest unit, Frans Steyn, is injured. But the South Africa back-line isn’t quite on the super-sized scale of the Welsh unit.  Nor are they likely to cut Ireland up with dashing moves and outrageous skill.  On top of all this, there’s some talk of experimentation and using the tour to build for the 2015 World Cup.  This is not a South Africa team to be feared.  Kidney and co. should concentrate on getting the best players they can on the pitch and not be too mindful of giving up a few kilos here and there.  The likes of Gordon D’arcy and Keith Earls punch well above their weight.
  5. Experience and players playing in their best position count for a lot.  We’d encourage Kidney to put as few square pegs in round holes as he can.  Against this, he has to balance up a requirement to ensure the backline isn’t too callow.  Darren Cave at 13, Felix Jones at 15 and Simon Zebo at 11 might sound exciting on paper, but it’s very raw, with three novices out of five in the back division.

With all that in mind, the options avilable, as we see them, are as follows.

The Specialists – 15 Jones, 14 Bowe, 13 Earls, 12 D’arcy, 11 Zebo/Trimble

Be Happy: Everyone is playing in their natural position and we’ve a proper full-back on the pitch, and one with an exciting counter-attacking game too.  Earls’ performances at 13 in the last 12 months should have convinced the doubters at this stage that he’s up to task – we were one of them ourselves.

Be Worried: Felix Jones is just back from a(nother) lengthy lay-off and has only had one start with Munster, at home to that European powerhouse Zebre.  He’ll have another this weekend, but it’s a massive risk to throw such an inexperienced and injury-prone player in at the deep end like that.  Earls himself is also recovering from injury and has not played since the Leinster game in Lansdowne Road.

The Strike Runners- 15 Earls, 14 Trimble, 13 Bowe, 12 D’arcy, 11 Zebo

Be Happy: why not just try and get all our best strike runners on to the pitch?  This would necessitate bringing Bowe off the wing, which would create room for both Trimble and Zebo, two wings in a rich vein of form.  Alternatively, Bowe and Earls could switch jumpers, with Bowe more reliable under the high ball.

Be Worried: Bowe may be solid under the high ball but once he catches it, he isn’t the best kicker in the world.  Reverting to Bowe at centre, then, and you’d have two players out of position, and Bowe hasn’t played 13 in a significant game in a long time, with perhaps too much weight being put on a good performance there for the Lions over three years ago.

The Cavemen- 15 Earls, 14 Bowe, 13 Cave, 12 D’arcy, 11 Zebo/Trimble

Be Happy: On the face of it, the most balanced selection, with Darren Cave coming into the centre.  He’s perhaps the most BOD-like 13 available.  That would allow Bowe to stay in his best position, while Earls would have to ready himself for an aerial onslaught.

Be Worried: Earls at 15 and an outside centre making his first test start.  And besides, what if Earls is injured?  Bringing Jones in would leave the backline way too inexperienced.

The Ooooooooooooohhh – 15 Hurley, 14 Bowe, 13 McFadden, 12 Downey, 11 Trimble

Be Happy: Ooooooooooohhh, those Saffers are awfully big chaps.  Let’s fight fire with fire and get our most physical, bosh-tastic backline out on the pitch.  We can almost hear Barnesy gearing up already.

Be Worried: Ireland don’t need to be any more dull to watch than they already are.

First Trimester

The first round of HEC matches is over. How was it for you? We, needless to say, loved it, but who are this season’s Wright brothers, and who is Icarus?

Good start for:

The Big Guns

Clermont have been the best team in the competition, and Toulon and Toulouse are also 2 from 2. Sarries and Quins top their pools and look like they have the tools to go far, and Leicester spectacularly woke up in the lat 15 against the Ospreys. Ulster are 100%, and compatriots Leinster may be 2 points behind Clermont, but they are gathering momentum, and, the group looks liable to produce two qualifiers.  These are probably the eight best teams in Europe, and all are playing like it – the standard this season is high, lets hope it stays that way.

French Euro-patsies

We all expected Clermont and Toulon to be among the front-runners, and Toulouse have looked strong too. Biarritz have an easy pool, but, as per tradition, are giving Europe a decent lash.  But it’s heartening to see Racing Metro and Castres putting cats amongst pigeons. Racing Metro’s victory over Munster and denying of Saracens a bonus point are keeping both sides honest, and the sheer ineptitude of Embra means that two wins are not impossible in the double-header, meaning Racing could actually go into January in first place in Pool 1, meaning five Frenchies are likely to be in the mix after Christmas. Castres are the odd ones out of course, but at least they are trying a little – their win over Saints have put Ulster in the driving seat.

Bad starts for:

The Welsh regions

Three teams, six games, one win.  Llanelli are the very definition of ‘flattering to deceive’, and while they can point to some rough luck at times, until they have a set piece they can rely on, all their back play will be in vain.  A more relible fly-half is also a requirement, as Priestland’s beguiling World Cup form seems a distant memory at this stage.  Cardiff have also lost twice, even coming out second to English basement dwellers Sale.  They look a mess, and it can’t be doing wonders for their best players, Jamie Roberts and Sam Warburton.  More on the Ospreys later.

Scottish Rugby

Michael Bradley’s Embra have been shockingly inept, with low skill levels, poor handling and an inability to even get on the scoreboard.  How a side coached by Neil Back can be so embarrassingly poor at the breakdown, we are still trying to figure out.  Glasgow have been better, taking the game to Northampton early on, but their was something inevitible about their defeat.  Scottish rugby’s descent continues apace.

The Ospreys

We are singling out the Spreys due to their being part of the Group of Death with Leicester and Toulouse. If you consider that, for each of these 3 teams, the base case scenario is this: 2 wins over Treviso (one with a bonus point), 2 home wins and 2 losing bonus points away from home. Anything better than that, and they will be aiming to qualify, anything less and they are up against it. Leicester “lost” an away bonus point in Toulouse, but made it up by winning one yesterday. Toulouse are on track. But the Ospreys failed to stay with Leicester in the home straight and are now effectively on -1 points – they will need more than 5 points from their double header against Toulouse if they are to avoid starting the January games under pressure.

Gerry

There is more to the HEC than Ronan O’Gara and the magic of Thomond Park. Even Frankie thinks so. But not Gerry. His sickly-sweet schoolgirl love letter to Rog on Saturday was followed by a ludicrously optimistic reading of what happened at Thomond on Monday morning. Our favourite was this “Penney is a brave coach, for sure, and while there was a better mix to their game here, it understandably pleased him no end that his players evidently share his sense of conviction about the type of rugby they are trying to play.”, simply because it’s completely untrue – the players seemed far more comfortable in the second half when playing Axel-ball.

Stuck in the middle:

Munster

After 60 minutes of yesterday’s game, it was looking like a really bad start, but after finally waking up and getting a try bonus point against as inept a team as we have seen, this constitutes a decent start for Munster. Factor in Sarries missing a bonus point of their own, and the much better shape of the forwards when Donnacha Ryan moved into the second row and POM to blindside after Paddy Butler came in for Stakhanov, and Munster might just have stumbled upon their best configuration in time for the pool-deciding double header. Make no mistake though, there is lots of work to be done – Munster have played hesitant rugby in Europe ever since Toulon, and the brainless wide-wide shuttling of the first half was no exception, If they play like they did in the last half hour, they could trouble the globetrotting Englishmen, but probably still have to beat them twice to top the pool, or hope for an unlikely favour from Racing.

Northampton Saints

Northampton were the only one of our five big fish to lose on the road this week, going down to Castres.  In previous years, losing one out of your opening two games would not be seen as a disaster, but it looks like the big teams are pulling away from the middle rank, and it’s becoming essential to be able to win in venues like Castres, Glasgow and Llanelli.  It leaves them with an uphill battle to qualify; like Munster, they probably have to do the double over their rival in the December back-to-back rounds.

Medium Sized Fish Hosts Big Fish

This weekend we count five potentially defining games among the twelve, all along a similar theme: one of the tournament contenders must travel to one of the mid-ranking teams.  They’re the sort of games that if they were held in the reciprocal ground, they would be home bankers.  But such is the home-away swing-o-meter in rugger, that they take on a huge defining quality; any win on the road is to be prized in the Heineken Cup.

Indeed, these sort of tough away days against the makeweight division are exactly the sort of games that are the making of champions, or genuine contenders anyway.  They’re rarely all that memorable, the good teams are usually made to look pretty ordinary, but if any of the five can get the win and move onto somewhere between eight and ten points after two rounds, it sets them up for the all-important December head-to-head.  Think back to Munster beating Sale away in 2009, or Leinster toughing it out in Glasgow last season.  Can you remember too many of the finer details of the matches?  Probably not, but both wins were pivotal in ensuring not only qualification, but a home draw for the quarter final.

All five of the big fish won their opening games at home, as one would have expected.  This week will teach us a whole lot more about their title credentials.  For the medium-sized fish, this is already last chance saloon stuff.  With one defeat already on the board, defeat at home in round two and it’s more or less thanks and goodbye.  But win, and suddenly the picture is completely altered, and all sorts of possibilities open up.

And just who are these famous five?  Leinster, Ulster, Northampton, Clermont and Harlequins.  Here’s a look at what they can expect.

Llanelli v Leinster

In our preview we’ve already identified this as the key weekend in Leinster’s pool.  Last week’s decidedly uninspiring victory over Exeter has only served to ratchet up the importance of this game, and also the sense of trepidation among Leinster fans.  It’s looking like a tougher match by the minute.  Gordon D’arcy is likely to be in contention for selection, but Rob Kearney’s return appears uncertain.  The Louth man is badly missed at the moment, as he’s the only back who gives them real muscle, and the Scarlets backline is big on… bigness.  With Leinster yet to click, this one’s all about hanging in there and coming out with any sort of a win.

Leinster will win if: their front five is almost feral.  Scarlets are weak in the tight and Leinster can cut off supply at source, but only if Cian Healy is back on top of his game and Leinster get their second row selection right, and that could mean putting Cullen on the bench.

Scarlets will win if: Priestland keeps his cool.  Just what is this fellow all about?  We can’t make him out at all.  If he can keep the scoreboard working, Scarlets should have enough firepower outside him to finish the job.

Glasgow v Ulster

This is the very sort of game that would have scuppered the campaign of the Ulster of three or four years ago.  The onus is on the new teak-tough and increasingly impressive model to show they are no longer susceptible to such tawdry away days.  Last year’s defeat in Leicester was one such moribund performance, but they atoned in the Auvergne and, of course, Limerick.  Glasgow were in contention in Northampton until the last few minutes and led 15-0 after half an hour.  They’re no mugs.

Ulster will win if: they hold on to the ball.  They have the forward power to beat Glasgow, but away from home, they can’t afford the sort of sloppiness they displayed against Connacht and Castres.  More incision in their back play is the order of the day.

Glasgow will win if: they can hold their own at the set piece.  Ulster’s set piece is formidable, both in lineout and scrum.  If Glasgow can neutralise Ulster in this facet of the game, they’re halfway there.

Connacht v Harlequins

Surely Quins won’t be caught cold a second time?  We all remember what happened last year, when Connacht held out for a 9-8 win in horizontal rain to end a 14-game losing streak.  Last season, every time we felt Quins had run out of puff they seemed to find an extra reserve somewhere, and ended up English champions.  They look like bona-fide contenders in Europe this year.  Having already come out 5-0 at home to Biarritz, and with Zebre in the double-header, only a loss in Galway stands between them and topping the pool.  They’ll surely be too well prepared this time around for an ambush.

Quins will win if: they prepare correctly.  They have no excuses ans should know what to expect in Galway this time.

Connacht will win if: they can conjure up the spirit of last season, when they somehow held a one-point lead playing into a 10-point gale.

Exeter v Clermont

A most intriguing fixture.  In truth, the two halves of WoC aren’t seeing eye to eye on this at all.  Egg Chaser does not believe Exeter have the stuff to worry Clermont, and sees Les Jaunards pulling away in the second half.  But Palla Ovale, fresh from last weekend’s nerve-shredder, reckons Exeter at Sandy Park to be more than capable of beating a team which – let’s face it – doesn’t have a good away record.  Can Exeter back up their performance last week?  Do they have the power to match Clermont’s pack?  And do Clermont have the appetite to go to one of Europe’s more obscure corners and come away with the win?

Clermont will win if: they bring the same intensity as they do at the Marcel Michelin.

Exeter will win if: they can give the crowd something to shout about early on.  The Chiefs fans are a raucous bunch, and if their team can get their noses in front, it could be a long way back for the Bananamen.

Castres v Northampton

Saints gave themselves a fair bit of work to do last week by giving Glasgow a 15-point start.  They finished in credit though, and it was their cool heads in a crisis that impressed the most.  Now they must back it up with a win on the road.  Castres rested their first team in Ravenhill last week, but will be a different proposition at home.  More than any other French club, they are schizophrenic.  It’s back to back games with Ulster in December, so the onus is on them to at least match what Ulster accomplish in Glasgow.

Northampton will win if: their half-backs have a good day.  They have great power upfront and in the Pisi brothers, enough flair in the backline to make up for Foden’s absence, but at out-half they must pick the flaky, but occasionally brilliant Ryan Lamb, and hope he has one of his better matches.

Castres will win if: they get a sniff of a result.  Like Racing Metro, they’re not that worked up about the H-Cup.  But you can make the French interested by letting them into the game, just as Munster did last week.  If Castres get the feeling they can take a scalp, they’ll dial up the intensity.

We were tempted to include Cardiff v Toulon, but decided Cardiff were too rubbish to be taken seriously.  They even lost to Sale, for goodness sake!

Decisions, Decisions

The first weekend of the HEC have left our trio of Kiwi provincial coaches with a range of interesting selection dilemmas (dilemmae?) – more than one of which will have a knock-on effect on Ireland, as Deccie’s November squad is announced next week. Let’s look at some shirts.

Ulster Scrummie

This one is intriguing. On the one hand you have a Springbok multi-talented RWC winner, Ulster’s best player of the last two years. On the other hand you have an electric young Irishman, developing at pace, and man of the match in Week 1. Who do you pick? Pienaar isn’t going to sit on the bench for long, but how can you drop Marshall after that performance? An away-day trip to Glasgae is probably, on paper, one for the more experienced man, but Marshall might be the smarter choice. Realistically, Pienaar is going to be the man in May, so why not give Marshall high-pressure exposure when you can? Also, it sends the wrong message to drop the incumbent when Mr Big Shot comes back. Pienaar will be off again from next week with the Boks – Ulster will need him in December, let him rest his weary bones now before South Africa’s high intensity (and Irish) test assigments.

Leinster second row

Leinster’s second row, as currently configured, looks for the knackers yard. Leo Cullen (2012 version) and Damian Browne is not a combination to strike fear into anyone really – Tom Hayes dealt with them with ease. Looking at the potential replacement, one name springs to mind – the lad on the bench with 100 Leinster caps, Devin Toner. If Toner cannot step up and claim a shirt now, he’s just not going to – if you see Schmidt stick with last week’s pair, or promote Denton or Roux into the starting XV ahead of Toner, for a game against the only Welsh region without one Lions contender in the engine room, that might be that for Devin Toner at this level. As much as we think that he has done enough, or justified some faith, it’s Joe Schmidt who sees him every day, and we have yet to see Schmidt give him a vote of confidence.

Munster 6/8

Without James Cawlin, Munster look chronically short of ball-carrying heft in the back row. Last week, they picked POM at 8 and Donnacha Ryan at 6 – this seemed designed to beef up the pack for an away-day assignment, and keep your best back rower in the side – no harm there. But it isn’t a viable plan going forward really – Ryan is needed in the second row, and POM isn’t a HEC-level 8. What are the options? How about move O’Mahony back to 6, where he should get a run of games, and bring in young Paddy Butler at the back of the scrum for some better carrying. Sure, it’s callow, but so is any combination we can think of, such as Dave O’Callaghan at 6 and POM at 8. Netani Talei could start for Embra, and, to be truthful, we don’t think POM could deal with him – we would chance Butler.

Ulster 6/8

Pre-season, we had highlighted this line as one of Ulster’s weak spots – beyond Fez/Henry/Wilson, we didn’t see any depth. Well, without 2 of the 3, they did ok on Friday, and Nick Williams has been their best player this season. New Willie John McBride (henceforth NWJMB) Iain Henderson was a revelation, but if Ferris can start, and with Wilson and Williams back, it’s unlikely he will keep his place, or even get a bench slot. Henderson, of course, is a second row by trade. Should you throw him a bench slot there in Lewis Stevenson (himself starting the season well)? Hard to manage, but he is tomorrow’s man, and there is no need to tear the hole out of him. We’d go Fez-Henry-Williams with Wilson on the bench. We’ll see NWJMB captain the 2021 Lions – no need to see him Friday.

Leinster 12

We have talked recently about how Ferg finally looks like getting a firm grip on the inside centre shirt in D4, but he might need to compromise this weekend. The word is that Dorce will be back, and if that happens, given the patched-up nature of Leinster’s outside backs, you’d think he’ll come in and take the 12 shirt with Fads moving to the wing to act as George North’s speedbump again try and stop George North. It’s a tough break for McFadden – if Leinster had a full deck, we think Schmidt would keep Ferg in the shirt. The ballsier call, of course, would be put Dorce on the bench and keep Andrew Conway on the wing – but Joe tends to be conservative for HEC away days.

Munster 10

Here is a bullet dodged by Rob Penney. Rog picking up a hamstring has reduced the number of O’Gara-supporting pieces in this weeks Irish media to zero – better to put them in the cupboard and dust them down for the Sarries double-headers. We suspected Keatley was always going to start this game, but now he gets to start it without Chief Ligind warming up on the sideline for the first 60 minutes. In a way, that would be better for Keatley – he needs to be able to deal with the unique pressure that challenging Ronan O’Gara for his shirt generates, but don’t worry – that pressure will come.