The Mystery of the IRFU Succession Rules

Around a year ago, the IRFU announced its ‘succession rules’, whereby it would restrict non-Irish qualified players to one per field position across the provinces, and operate on a ‘one-contract-and-out’ basis.  The idea was to ensure at least two Irish-eligible players were playing first team rugby in each position across the three major provinces.  They were announced to general bafflement among a public that has become deeply loyal to their province of choice.  The IRFU hosted a twitter Q&A session, where they gave infuriatingly vague replies to fans who were wondering what on earth was going on, but failed to generate any goodwill or provide satisfactory responses.  It was one of the biggest PR gaffs the union has made in recent memory, up there with their ticket pricing policy for the November 2010 internationals.

Curiously – or maybe not so curiously – since the initial furore which greeted announcement, we’ve had radio silence on the issue.  Isa Nacewa was allowed to sign a one-year extension, apparently at odds with the rules; keeping him in Leinster until 2014, a year after the rules are apparently meant to come in. And today, Ulster announced Johann Muller was staying until the end of next season.

In the case of Nacewa and, especially, Muller, both are keeping young Irish players out of the team, seemingly at odds with the rules – both might be the highest-profile NIQs in their position, but we simply don’t know if that was a criterion in their contract offer.

Confused?  You’re not the only one.

The quietude around the rules has led people to ask: are they still going ahead?  We’re in the dark as much as anyone else over this.  It would be no surprise if they were quietly folded away and put to bed without any fanfare or announcement.  Another possibility is that the IRFU maintains they’re going ahead, with vigorous affirmations of the importance of adherence, but only enforces them selectively – that is to say, in actuality they don’t enforce them at all, but pretend they do in order to save face.

It looks like this will come to a real head quite soon, as Munster and Ulster’s NIQ tighthead props are making noises about leaving.  Tighthead prop was really the only position the rules were brought in to cater for, because as everyone knows, Mike Ross is the only Irish-qualified prop starting important games for his province, and it’s the only position where Ireland are so dependent on one player.

At Munster, BJ Botha is rumoured to be moving to Toulon, where he has been offered a two-year contract, while Ulster’s John Afoa has mentioned in a recent interview that he plans to return to New Zealand at the end of his contract, which expires in the summer of 2014.

Under the succession rules, Munster would be precluded from recruiting a foreign tighthead for next season, since NIQ players must be replaced by Irish eligible players once their contract has lapsed.  Ulster, similarly, would not be allowed to recruit an NIQ player the following season, once John Afoa departs.  But does anyone really believe the IRFU will hamper the provinces so severely?  It strikes us as unlikely.

The foremost Irish tightheads at Munster and Ulster are Stephen Archer and Declan Fitzpatrick.  Neither would be fit for the purpose of mounting a challenge for the Heineken Cup.  Fitzpatrick can lock a scrum, but is rarely match-fit, while Archer struggles to cope with even moderately technical opponents in the set-piece.  If both provinces are to have aspirations of beating the better French or English sides, some recruitment will be required.

The only Irish-eligible tighthead who looks a remotely plausible signing is Worcester’s Belfast-born John Andress.  Ploughing away in the Worcester front row may not sound like the stuff of greatness, but the Aviva Premiership is a set-piece-heavy league, packed with hardy scrummagers (Andress’ regular opponents in the scrum would include the likes of Soane Tongauiha, Alex Corbisiero, Marcos Ayerza and Joe Marler – not exactly wallflowers).

Andress has had something of a journeyman career so far, but has amassed plenty of gametime since he moved to England.  He made 44 appearances in the Championship for Exeter Chiefs, before moving up a level to the Premiership with Harlequins in 2009.  He made 30 starts for Harlequins over two seasons before returning to the Chiefs, but found his path to the first team blocked on returning.  He’s started 10 games and made eight further appearances from the bench for Worcester this season.  He might find his opportunities slightly more limited in the rest of the season, with Euan Murray having pitched up at Sixways.  That he has never been deemed essential by some fairly mediocre clubs is a mark against him, but his CV is several notches up from that of Archer or Fitzpatrick.

His is a solid body of work, and his career path looks suspiciously similar to that of Mike Ross.  That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be as good as Mike Ross, but at 29, he should be coming into his prime as a scrummager.  If the IRFU do decide to persist with their ill-conceived succession rules, he can expect his value to increase sharply.

But even if Andress is the answer – and there’s no guarantee he would be – there’s only one of him, and two provinces for whom the issue of recruitment is pressing.  If the IRFU is going to go ahead with its ill-advised move, and enact it to the letter, it is going to have to choose between Munster and Ulster and seriously weaken one of them.

Prop recruitment in general has been a mixed bag among the provinces in recent years.  Botha has delivered good value for both Ulster and Munster over five highly productive seasons, while Afoa has been consistently outstanding for Ulster.  Nathan White, as a stop-gap for Leinster and now at Connacht, is another success story.  But then there are the Clint Newlands, Peter Borlases and latterly, Michael Bents, whose careers in Ireland have been stillborn.

Even if Ulster and Munster are given the licence to recruit, there are no guarantees of quality, and competition for the best will be fierce from the Top 14 in particular, where clubs think nothing of having six first-rate props on their books, and rotating them over the season – the best props coming from the Southern Hemisphere will get hoovered up by the French clubs, as will the French ones (obviously) and the Georgians. The English ones aren’t going to come to Ireland. So, essentially, to replace Afoa and Botha with NIQ props will not only break the IRFU’s own rules, but be hugely expensive into the bargain, as we will be competing with Toulon, Clermont and Racing Metro.

The Ins and Outs of the Johnny Sexton saga

On Friday afternoon, our Twitter timeline was like a morgue.  It was as if there was a death in the family.  Johnny Sexton, the icon of Leinster rugby, would not be staying with his boyhood province, instead signing a lucrative contract with flash Parisian moneybags Racing Metro.  After being knocked out of Europe the previous weekend, it felt like Armageddon for Leinster fans.

Now that we’ve had the weekend to process the bad news, hopefully we can offer a bit more perspective than on Friday, when Palla was tweeting through the tears… here’s how we see it.

1. It’s bad news for Ireland

Some commentators felt the move might actually be positive for Irish rugby; Sexton will hardly disimprove in Paris, and it elevates Madigan to a probable starting role at Leinster.  More Irish fly-halves will be starting big games.  Such an argument looks like a curious emphasis of quantity over quality.  It is great to have as many Irish 10s playing high level rugby as possible, but surely it is most important that by far the best we have is playing in Ireland?  If you don’t put much stock in the IRFU’s ploy of keeping the players under their central watch, then fine, but the players appear to appreciate their game-time being managed (to an extent) and it has hardly done Sexton’s test career any harm that he plays his club rugby with Dorce outside, as well as the other cabal of Leinster internationals.  The net effect is a negative for Irish rugby in general; we’d be better off with Sexton at Leinster. Plus, as we will discuss in more detail below, this could open the doors to other players leaving – which is definitely bad for Ireland.

2. The IRFU has a case to answer

Without being inside the negotiating rooms, we cannot pinpoint the blame on any one individual or body, but at the very least, the IRFU have a lot to answer for on this one.  How did they let the jewel in their crown get away?  Did they undervalue just how good and marketable a player Sexton is?  Going by Thornley and O’Reilly and his godfather Billy Keane, Sexton’s camp were unhappy that contract negotiations started so late and that the IRFU’s initial offer was no higher than Sexton currently earns.  Although he signed a two-year contract last time around, we understand that those negotiations were fraught, with Sexton unhappy at the IRFU’s offer of less than O’Gara (his reserve at the time) was earning.  An overspill of these bad vibes was probably brought into these negotiations.  The IRFU would not have been required to necessarily match the Racing offer; Sexton wanted parity with the top paid players in the country – a fair evluation of his ability, then –  but the IRFU would not meet him there.

The money men at 4 Lansdowne Road may not be completely displeased that they won’t have to pay big bucks to Sexton but still have him for Ireland, but that’s an extraordinally short-sighted view. Coming as it did in the week when Puma pulled the plug on their current kit deal, we should consider this – Sexton’s image rights are no longer controlled by the union, meaning any kit manufacturer will lower their offer commensurate with the fact that one of Ireland’s most marketable assets cannot promote their gear.

3. The central contracting system has its flaws

The central contracting system has served Ireland well, no question.  But its shortcomings were exposed here.  Leinster were the party with the most to lose, but they could do nothing, while the IRFU negotiated with the player.  Joe Schmidt must be seething; he has lost his best player, the cornerstone of his team, because of the slipshod work of others.  Just imagine.  Something is wrong in a system where interests and ability to act are so misaligned. And, to this point…

4. The IRFU’s relationship with the provinces must be better managed

Six months ago we blogged that the future success of Irish rugby depended on the powers that be’s ability to dovetail the provinces’ requirements with those of the national team.  Instead, what we have is a situation where the mission for the year is very much about ensuring that the national team is seen by all as the top dog.  Would this have entered Johnny Sexton’s thinking?  Probably.  There has been radio silence since the PR disaster that was the announcement of new player succession rules, but assuming they’re still going ahead, how confident could Sexton be that Leinster would be able to recruit the top-class second row they need to be competitive at the sharp end next season?  The IRFU’s determination to ensure the national team is not usurped in the fans’ minds as Numero Uno could end up hurting themselves as much as anyone.

5. The door is open for others

We can’t know yet if Sexton’s departure will be the first of many, but certainly it opens the door.  Cian Healy and Rob Kearney have not yet signed up for next season.  Kearney has been on regional airwaves describing his shock at the news.  Sexton’s move will no doubt lead those players to consider just how much a force Leinster can be without their great fly-half.  Compounding this, French clubs may now become encouraged.  The Irish provinces have yielded slim pickings over the years, with Clermont and Toulouse apparently coveting Sexton, but wary of being used as bargaining tools.  Such powerhouses will surely have found their interest piqued by this week’s transfer news. The aforementioned players are of course from Leinster, where there appeared to be genuine shock at how Luke Fitzgerald was cut from the payroll when injured – careers are short and Pandora’s Box is open.

One man we are genuinely concerned about is Sean O’Brien – amazing as it seems, one of our most important players is not currently on a central contract. His current Leinster deal ends next season, so one can expect the union to start discussions in December – if you were a French club, wouldn’t you make discrete contact in advance? O’Brien has many reasons to stay in Leinster, but you can bet that grá for the Union who haven’t made him an offer he can’t refuse is not one of them – they had betterget this one right.

6. Madigan deserves his chance

There’s already speculation that Leinster will scour the southern hemisphere for a fly-half, but this would be a bad move.  The one positive that comes out of this is the solving of the Madigan Riddle, also known as What Do You Do With a Problem Like Madeegan.  While Madigan still has a way to go to get to Sexton’s consummate level, at the very least his impressive performances in blue over the last two years have earned him the right to at least a season as first choice 10.  At his best he’s a thrilling talent with an eye for the tryline, a breaking threat and a sublime pass, and could prove himself to be the second-best 10 in the country if he can improve his decision-making and kicking from hand.  A Shaun Berne-type signing as back-up seems more appropriate, and it’s a pity that Paul Warwick has just been snapped up by Worcester; he would have been ideal. Now that George Ford is taking his promising talents to Oooooooooooooohh Bath, perhaps a move for Beaver is in order?

7. Sexton should see out the season

There’s a worthwhile argument that Leinster’s future must start today with as much invested in Madigan from now, including any Pro12 or Amlin knock-out games.  But Sexton has earned the right not to be treated as a shop-bought commodity and should remain Leinster’s first-choice 10 for the remainder of his contract.  Plus, respect must be paid to the remaining competitions in which Leinster will compete, which means giving themselves the best possible chance of winning them with the best team on the pitch.  Besides, with the Six Nations starting, Madigan will be afforded plenty of Pro12  starts over the coming months in any case.

8. Leinster must be positive and move on

It’s devastating for the fans and certainly a blow to the team to lose so great a player.  But wallowing in disappointment will achieve little.  Leinster’s squad can take comfort by recalling that their recent success was born out of adversity, and their hardness won through difficult times.  They have overcome worse than losing a key player before.  Furthermore, minds should be cast back to the summer of 2009, when a seemingly irreplacable Aussie backrow made his way back down under.  It seemed like the end of the world, but his loss was barely noticed following the emergence of a certain Tullow native with a penchant for smashing holes all over the pitch.

With this in mind, Proper Church’s tweets of Madigan with the meme ‘Relax. I’ve got this’ were a good start.

9. Bon Chance, Johnnny Sexton

Leinster fans in particular will be disappointed, hurt even, by the decision.  Some will call Sexton a mercenary and that he’s moved for the money.  But really, unless any of those people are Johnny Sexton, or Fintan Drury, or Johnny Sexton’s fiance, it’s impossible to know exactly what his motives are for leaving.  Many players have flirted with France before, most notably Brian O’Driscoll.  But none have been in Sexton’s position, where he has won three Heineken Cup medals with his hometown team.  BO’D stayed at Leinster out of a feeling of unfinished business.  Sexton may feel it’s as good a time as any for a fresh challenge.  To him, we say, bon chance.

Gallic Shrug

There was an air of inevitability about Munster’s five-try qualifying haul on Sunday.  Not even Munster’s most ardent supporters – heck, not even Frankie Sheahan – would claim there was anything miraculous about it, or hold it up against famous last-round wins against Sale or Gloucester.

Why?  Because we’ve become accustomed to the middle tier French rugby clubs capitulating in the latter rounds of the Cup.  When Racing gave up a generous lead at home to Saracens the week before, Leinster’s goose was more or less cooked.  For some – Leinster fans anyway – it resulted in a slightly unsatisfactory finale to the pool stages.  How much more exciting would it have been if Munster really had it put up to them, as Leinster did in Exeter?  That’s not to discredit Munster.  As discussed in Monday’s post, they had their destiny in their own hands and did what they had to do; they deserve their place in the last eight.

The question is, can anything be done to ensure sides remain competitive to the last?  Not really.  Sure, you could try to impose fines on teams for putting out weakened sides, but in the days of heavy squad rotation, how do you define first and second choice players?  On the face of it, it looks unworkable.

And besides, it’s more a question of attitude than names on a team sheet.  Rugby is a game where bodies are put on the line; if one side’s need is greater, they will generally prevail, even if they possess less quality.  As an example, Toulon put out a strong line-up for Saturday’s do-or-go-through-anyway game against Montpellier, but it was clear from the moment Freddie Michalak gave a Gallic shrug and allowed the Montpellier centre to canter over the line for their first try, that their hearts weren’t in it.  The best that could be achieved would be that if the French are to be given concessions as part of the much-discussed tournament restructure, that they are reminded of their responsibilities to uphold the credibility of the competition.

In defence of the French sides, that they were more consistently competitive this year than in any in recent memory.  Clermont and Toulouse will always treat the tournament with respect and Biarritz – although rubbish these days – have a tradition of giving it a go.  Toulon, with their mega-squad, have no excuse for not being competitive, and took advantage of an easy pool to amble through to a home quarter-final.  It was only Montpellier’s second season in the competition, and while their pool was straightforward, they showed terrific commitment throughout and clearly wanted to make a statement, and qualified deservedly.

The performances of Castres and Racing were also committed for the most part.  Castes are notorious for throwing matches on the road, but they won in Glasgow and kept Northampton tryless in Franklin’s Gardens, a result which effectively took the Saints out of the competition.  Racing also won in Scotland, beat Munster at home and looked suitably gutted at the end of their hard-fought defeat to Saracens.  It was only once they were ruled out that they couldn’t be bothered.

If one thing could be done to improve the tournament, it’s a change to the lopsided seeding system, which counts the previous four years of tournament points to determine each side’s place in the rankings.  Four years is too many, and allows the deadwood to hang around for too long.  Cardiff were a top seed this year, which seems farcical.  They were losing semi-finalists four years ago, when Martyn Williams missed a penalty in a shoot-out against Leicester, but not many of the names that played that day are still on their books.  While there is no points system that can account for a loss of players to other clubs, two years’ ranking points appears more appropriate, and if the ranking coefficient included an element of domestic league performance, then all the better.

Regrets, They’ll Have A Few

The champions are out of Europe at the pool stages.  If that sounds pretty ignominious, then it probably is.  Sure, there were mitigating circumstances in a hefty injury list and a tough pool, but them’s the breaks and they weren’t the only team with injured players or good teams to contend with.  It’ll be especially gut-wrenching that the team to edge them out of the knockouts are their arch rivals, Munster, a team they would believe themselves to be better than.  Harlequins will be happier to be facing Munster than a rejuvenated Leinster that has belatedly sparked into life since getting a proper backline on the pitch.  But, hey, that’s Heineken Cup rugby.

Leinster can at least console themselves that they kept up their half of the bargain by securing the 10 match points they needed in the final two rounds.  That they did so in a swashbuckling style reminiscent of the last two seasons is reason enough to believe that they are not a busted flush yet, and that  their premature exit should not be seen as a serious demise.  But to be entering the final rounds relying on the middle-tier French clubs for favours – especially once their own fates have been sealed – is never going to be a recipe for success.  Leinster have only themselves to blame.

While it’s tempting to look at the possibility that they left a few tries out there against both Scarlets and Exeter, in truth the damage was done in rounds one to four.  Again, many will look to the double-header with Clermont, but given the backline Leinster had out in both games (Goodman at 12, and every other player from 11-15 playing out of their best position) and the nature of Clermont’s sense of unfinished business, it is understandable that they should lose both games.  Just one more point would have left Leinster’s fate in their own hands, and the opening week fiasco, where they sleepwalked to a fortuitous, tryless win over an Exeter which conceded seven tries at home to Clermont the following week was the one that got away.  To look at it more thematically, Leinster will rue that a misfiring lineuot proved expensive right through the pool stages.

No such concerns on the face of it for Ulster, but in having to go away to Saracens, they have made their possible passage to the final more difficult than it should have been.  They, too, will have cause for regret, in particular in taking their eye off the ball against Northampton in round four.  Having slaughtered the Saints in Franklin’s Gardens it looks as if Ulster may have got a bit carried away with themselves in the build-up to the return leg, and paid a heavy price.  Even still, a single extra point would have reversed the quarter-final match venue and as such, the awful third quarter in which they allowed Glasgow to dominate in Pool 5 left them one try short of what would have been a crucial bonus point.

By contrast, Munster will reflect that they are happy to be still in the competition after somehow squeezing out of a pool in which they never really impressed.  They can look back on the ten minute salvage operation against Edinburgh at home as the point that made all the difference to their campaign.  With one try on the board after 70 minutes, it looked set to be a disappointing afternoon at Thomond Park, but Paddy Butler’s introduction provided a spark and they manufactured three tries in the dying minutes, against admittedly hapless opposition.  They’re unlikely to do much in the knock-out stages, where the Anglo-French axis look set to dominte, but how Leinster must envy them.

Le Johnny Show-Bizz?

Johnny Sexton has reportedly been offered megabucks to join Racing Metro.  By all accounts it’s a serious offer and the club has plans to become a European force over the next two-to-three seasons.  They’ve signed up Castres’ highly-rated coaching ticket for next year, and have identified Johnny as the man they need to conquer Europe.

The IRFU have, apparently, been slow to respond, which on the face of it, is remarkable.  Sexton is now firmly established as the nation’s premier 10, and it appears a fait accomplis that he will be the starting Lions fly-half.  There is a legitimate argument that he is the outstanding player in the country, having surpassed O’Driscoll and O’Connell, both of whose recent impact has been limited by injury.

While nothing has been signed yet, the whole affair does bring to light the glaring flaw in centralised contracting.  The system whereby the top players are centrally controlled by the IRFU has, in general, been a success, with the players’ match time controlled appropriately.  But the other side of the coin is that the provinces’ needs come a distant second.

While the IRFU in general puts a lot of stock in having the players under their control, they might be somewhat agnostic about Sexton leaving for Paris.  For a start, playing in France is no longer the flog-athon it was once perceived as, and the big Top 14 contenders now have large enough squads to rest their better players.  Juan Martin Hernandez and Winiewski are both on Racing’s books, so Johnny 10 can comfortably be rotated out of the team as and when the coaches see fit.  Matching Racing’s offer is presumably out of the question, but even without doing so, the IRFU would seemingly have to offer terms that would establish Sexton as the best paid player in the country in order to keep him in Ireland.  It wouldn’t be undeserved, but perhaps they’re not that keen on the idea.  They’ll still have access to Johnny for internationals, and his standing is such that he’ll continue to be picked wherever he plays.  And his leaving Leinster would pave the way for Ian Madigan – potentially his understudy at test level next season, but possibly a bit of a headache for the IRFU while on the bench at Leinster – to flourish at his home province.  Indeed, Madigan would probably be the biggest beneficiary of all this.

The team with the most to lose by Johnny setting sail are Leinster.  Before Joe Schmidt even signed on at the province, he identified Sexton as the most important player at the club – it was he and Leo Cullen that Schmidt met for a chat to discuss his vision for Leinster rugby, and the Kiwi has built the team around Sexton’s regal attacking game.  But Leinster can only sit idly by while the IRFU crunch the numbers.  They can do nothing tangible to keep him at the club.  It points to a schism in the system.

As Peter O’Reilly discussed so eloquently in the Sunday Times, Sexton is one of the icons of Irish rugby, particularly in his home province.  Among Leinster fans, he has come to embody the new winning culture at the province, with his arrival as a first team player coinciding exactly with the beginning of Leinster’s dominance.  His rise to the top has been especially hard-won; the manner in which he has had to overcome adversity to get to where he is today, and had to claw the Irish 10 shirt off the back of a legend, have made him an especially adored player on the terraces of the RDS.

As for Johnny himself, nobody would begrudge him a couple of seasons on a colossal salary in the splendour of Paris.  He owes Leinster nothing, having steered them to three Heineken Cups.  The timing could probably never be better.  The Lions tour will be out of the way and he could return in time for the World Cup in 2015.  But for those who have watched him develop from a skinny-limbed youngster on his debut in Thomond Park to the world-class leader he is today, it would be difficult to watch him play in another team’s colours.  The IRFU should do what they can to tie down one of their greatest assets.

*The title is a reference to Racing Metro’s 1980s backline, which was famous for its flair and eccentricity, and became known as Le Show-Bizz.  Read more about the club’s colourful history here.

Stepping up to the Plate

Leinster’s season in Europe is hanging by its fingernails.  It’s more than a little reminiscent of Munster’s exit at the group stages in 2010 when they surrendered meekly in Toulon and failed to qualify.  That had an air of ‘end of the pier’ about it, with the great Generation Ligind team finally grinding to a halt.  But though leaving Europe in the pool stages left an indelible scar, Munster’s season wasn’t a total wipeout.  They salvaged dignity by winning the Magners League, and more importantly, went some way to securing their future competitivenes by promoting the likes of Conor Murray, James Cawlin, Donnacha Ryan and Felix Jones above some of the more established names to the first team and recruiting BJ Botha for the following season.

If Leinster do go out of Europe, and it’s likely they will, they too will need to use the remainder of the season to embark on something of a re-build.  The job isn’t quite on the scale of that which is still ongoing in Munster, but certainly a new corps of troops needs to come through.  Two years ago, Leinster looked to have unrivalled squad depth, as a slew of talented academy players made waves in Europe and the league.  But a number of these players’ careers have stalled in the last 24 months.  2013 is going to be a big year in the lives of a number of players, and while the phrase ‘make-or-break’ isn’t one we especially like, and can tend to overdramatise things, in terms of building careers as first team players at Leinster, the next 12 months are going to be significant for these fellows:

Luke Fitzgerald

Grand Slam winner and test Lion, Luke’s talent needs no introduction, but his career has endured something of a crisis in the last 24 months.  At his best he’s a brilliant defender and the best player in Ireland – possibly excepting Craig Gilroy – at changing direction and escaping from heavy traffic.  Given his mid-career troubles, there’s a huge amount of goodwill towards Luke Roysh, and as a nation we produce few players with his natural talent.  But a couple of issues must be overcome: he has to stop overrunning the ball carrier, and must improve his strike rate.  And he must focus on one position – and it might just be outside centre, where he could be the replacement for  BOD that the world is waiting for.  His return from injury is imminent, and feverishly anticipated by a Leinster team in real need of some invention in the backline.

Eoin O’Malley

Diminutive centre, but on song, he’s a natural who makes the game look easy.  Showed his class in each of the last two seasons before being laid low by serious injury at the tail end of last season.  Not a big fellow by any means, there will always be those for whom he is just too small for rugby at the highest level, but is nonetheless a (nother) contender to succeed BOD at outside centre for Leinster, and as such, the next twelve months will be huge in his development.

David Kearney

Made huge strides last season, making the Irish bench for the Six Nations opener against Wales, and has been badly missed through injury this season, with resources stretched in the back three.  Although not exceptionally quick, has a good kicking and chasing game and is a dangerous broken field runner and fine ball-handler.  His defensive game – like that of his brother – needs work.  If he can bring it up to the required level, he can be close to being a regular starter for Leinster.  Should have plenty of chances once fit and firing.

Dom Ryan

Generated significant hype following two-try performance against Saracens in the RDS two years ago, and produced a brilliant cameo against Toulouse in the semi-final.  Since then, has been scarcely spotted, as one injury after another have restricted him to a handful of appearances.  Recent comments from Joe Schmidt contrasting his progress to that of Jordi Murphy suggest management are not entirely happy with him.  On a good day he looks to have it all – physicality, great ball-tracking, and superb groundwork – but he is just as capable of total anonymity.  If he can learn from Shane Jennings to keep himself at the heart of matches, Leinster have a player on their hands, but he must now put a run of games together and remind us what we’ve been missing.

Rhys Ruddock

Capped as a 19 year old, and following an explosive performance in Paris against Racing Metro, Franno declared that his potential was unlimited.  But has done little since then to justify the billing.  He can look decidedly undynamic in the loose, and his too-upright carrying style can have fans watching through their fingers in anticipation of another dreaded turnover.  Has rejected overtures from Munster to stay at Leinster, but appears to be an ambitious individual who has no desire to warm the bench, even at a big club.  It’s time to establish himself and make good on the early promise.

Devin Toner

Now this genuinely is make or break – Leinster’s resources in the second row are the worst in the country, yet the big second row just can’t seem to finally break into the first team, having been on the cusp of it for years: he was the reserve second row in all three of Leinster’s Heineken Cup finals over the last five years.  Mike McCarthy’s imminent arrival isn’t necessarily the bad news it may appear, as the two play on different sides of the scrum; Leo Cullen is his real obstacle to regular first team rugby, and the old boy can’t go on forever (can he?).  Last year Toner looked to have made the necessary progress to finally become a first-pick, but this season he’s been fairly ho-hum.  Are his deficiencies – in part brought on by his unique frame – simply too great for him to be a Heineken Cup regular?  The strange thing is that for all the focus on his lack of oomph in the tight, for a seven-foot-tall fellow, he doesn’t pilfer much opposition lineout ball. We are on the verge of saying that if he can’t make it now, he isn’t going to.

Ian Madigan

Woah! Did they just go there? Isn’t Ian Madigan a great young prospect? Doesn’t he have the best eye for the tryline of any 10 in Ireland, and can’t he look magic with ball in hand? Sure, all of the above boxes are ticked, but there is a problem – Jonny Sexton. Sexton is Leinster’s franchise quarterback, and he ain’t going anywhere, except to Oz as Lions starter and potential captain. Madigan’s career is about to reach a crossroads – stay at Leinster and move position, or move on for regular rugger at 10. If he stays, where does he see himself playing? Fullback? Unlikely, with Bob back in tow. Centre? Possibly, but Leinster have lots of competition there (see above) and he has no experience to speak of in the position. And if he moves on, where will he go? All of the other provinces have no need, neither do any of the big English clubs, so it’s probably to France. The answers to these questions are likely to determine how Madigan’s career unfolds from here.

Bent Cops

One of the more endearing/bizarre (delete as appropriate) stories of last November was the ascension of Michael Bent from the Dublin Airport arrivals hall to the bench to face up to the Springboks in the Palindrome, with the now de rigeur hurley forcd into his hand for a photo-shoot, to show just how Oirish he really is. We, and most commentators, acknowledged at the time that Deccie didn’t have many other options.

The theme of Ireland having a tighthead crisis has been going on for so long as to be a constant source of white noise in any selection debate. John Hayes soldiered manfully for a decade, and delivered a relatively solid set piece as the foundation for piles more silverware than Ireland had ever won before (and not just because the Triple Crown was a metaphorical trophy until recently), but behind him, there wasn’t much. The IRFU plucked Mushy Buckley from the Munster undergrowth in 2008-ish and decreed him the next big thing – the player had many promising moments, but ultimately was a huge let-down – Hayes played far longer than was humane, and the occasional filling-in of Tom Court was just that – filling in.

Once Mushy failed to make half-time in the pre-2011 Six Nations Wolfhounds game, patience finally snapped – he was out of the picture. Luckily for everyone, Mike Ross at Leinster had developed into a fine tighthead under Greg Feek – he could always scrummage, but his all-round game and conditioning improved beyond all recognition. The Ireland scrum became a weapon like never before – the filleting of the England pack in the Aviva in 2011 was as surprising as it was enjoyable.

Unfortunately, Ross is human, and tires occasionally, as we have discussed before.  It’s essential for Ireland to have some credible backup (i.e. not Buckley). The alternatives are:

  • Deccie Fitzpatrick – classic scrummager, good debut on tour, but too injury-prone to rely on
  • Jamie Hagan – struggling to convince he can scrummage well enough at Pro12 level, never mind the HEC
  • Stephen Archer – struggling to convince he can scrummage well enough at AIL level, never mind the Pro12
  • Michael Bent – just landed, but comes with a good rep from Tarananki in New Zealand

Bent’s call-up resulted in more than a little frothing at the mouth, with George Hook getting especially apoplectic with rage live on air.  But tempers were clamed – as they so often are – by the sight of the big fella playing and scrummaging well. On his first appearance on this island, in green, he came on for an exhausted Mike Ross against the Springboks and acquitted himself well – the scrum looked solid and his first action was to win a scrum penalty. Two further substitute appearances followed – against a bunny Fiji side mourning the death of a team-mate and not really bothering to turn up, and a tired Puma team who were spectacularly dismantled early on. Neither gleaned much useful information.

Then, after the RWC15 draw, there were the usual flurry of potential Ireland teams named – this is a fool’s errand of course, but it’s a bit of fun and generally an interesting debate. All of them had one thing in common – Bent at tighthead – and why not, since its pretty clear that, akin to the Hayes/Buckley succession plan, that all the national teams eggs are in the Bent basket when it comes to Mike Ross’s long-term replacement. But how realistic is that?

After rounds three and four of the HEC, Ross was given some time off, and Bent got his chance in the December interpros against Ulster and Connacht. He endured a difficult time. Against Ulster, he was milked for scores by the Ulster pack, and his opposite number and international fall-guy Tom Court was man of the match. Then in the RDS against Connacht, he had another shaky outing, and was called ashore shortly after being wheeled by Connacht academy graduate Denis Buckley. Worrying signs, and a curius performance graph.

Of course, Bent isn’t some greenhorn plucked from obscurity and asked to man up – he came through the Taranaki youth system, spent 10 years going up through the grades and eventually made 11 Super Rugby appearances (5 starts) for the Hurricanes and was Taranaki player of the year for 2012 after a productive ITM Cup campaign. That’s a promising CV – but not a home run one. If Super Rugby is somewhat analogous to the HEC, then the ITM Cup is probably at a level slightly better than the Pro12. We will confess, we haven’t seen much ITM Cup action, but if it’s comparable to the Currie Cup (which you would imagine it is – second level professional rugby), it’s probably of the standard of the better Pro12 games.

So Bent comes across as a decent Pro12 standard 26-year old prop, with a reputation for being able to play both sides, after a handful of SR appearances. By co-incidence, another prop came over to Ireland aged 26, with an ambipropstrous reputation (although considered primarily a tighthead at the time) and a handful of SR appearances – Tom Court, in 2006. Both arrived from relative obscurity and neither were mapped internationally.

Of course, the comparison is somewhat moot – Court only took up rugger a couple of years before coming over, while Bent, as a Kiwi, has presumably been steeped in it since birth – Bent shouldn’t have a learning curve like Court did. But the comparison is valid at one level – you don’t arrive in Ireland from second tier rugby and immediately become international class. Bent has some good qualities, but is very much a work in progress. If he is to lock the Ireland scrum for RWC15, he would want to be Leinster’s first choice HEC tighthead by the beginning of the 2014-15 season – that gives him 1.5 years to gain experience, develop further and get to that level – which isn’t that much time really. Even allowing for Ross’s relatively advanced years, he doesn’t have that much rugby behind him – only six full seasons. The idea that he will fade away and Bent step in may be a little presumtuous.

Now, where were we going with this? Ah yes, Ireland’s tighthead crisis. There is a lot of focus and pressure on Michael Bent for a number of reasons – the unusual nature of his call-up, and Ireland’s traditional lack of resources in his position. But expectations have to be tempered a little as well – if Bent is to be the RWC15 tighthead, he needs to be better than Mike Ross in 1.5 years – is that realistic? Maybe, but let him bed in in a new country and gain experience at provincial level first.

To get back to Court, it is only now (ironically, after Deccie has decided Dave Kilcoyne is better than him), after 6 seasons, that Court is realising his potential – and he has been first choice in Ulster for a long time. It was unfortunate that Bent’s first game was against a man who has matured into quite a wily operator, but the mirror held up by Court is an instructive one – Court’s level (HEC and occasionally international class) should be where we expect Bent to get to – anything more will be a bonus. And if RWC15 comes too soon for Bent, be patient – he will only be 33 when RWC19 comes along. Just because he isn’t ploughing opposition scrums right now doesn’t mean he will be the new Peter Borlase or Clint Newland …. or even the new Tony Buckley for that matter.

It’s Just A Little Airborne, It’s Still Good, It’s Still Good!

Munster and Leinster aren’t out of the Heineken Cup just yet, but oh me oh my, they’re cutting their chances pretty fine after losing what were, on the face of it, must-win matches this weekend.  Munster sit on 11 points in their pool, and Leinster are on 10.  We wrote previously how the two could be on some sort of collision course, potentially taking one or another out of the tournament.  Well, they sure are now, but it ain’t no two horse race.  It’s time to get out the calculators.

Oh, and it probably makes sense to add a health warning at this point: looking too far ahead in the Heineken Cup can be a fruitless exercise, the most likely outcome of which is making yourself look foolish.

So who’s liable to be scrapping over the two precious runner up spots?  Here’s a guide which should hopefully give Leinster and Munster fans an idea who they should be rooting for over the next two rounds.

Pool 1: Munster are third with 11 points, but are on course for second, as Racing have played hapless Embra twice.  Saracens will probably go to Racing and do the business, although Racing have kept their interest in the pool alive after back-to-back wins over Edinburgh, so it’s by no means guaranteed.  If Sarries slip up, the pool will become a three horse race, with Racing very much in the mix.  The group would probably be settled on bonus points, and it would change the dynamic of their visit to Thomond Park.  Munster have Edinburgh away before they welcome Racing in Week Six.  It’s time to bring out Rob Penney’s attacking ideas in their full glory, because they’ll be looking for 5 points from each.  21 would almost certainly be enough to qualify.

Forecast: Saracens top, Munster second on 21 points.

Pool 2: Leicester and Toulouse meet in round six, and the winner will top the group.  Results this weekend might prove to be helpful. Ospreys’ defeat of Toulouse means it’s hard to see a runner-up breaking 20 points.  Leicester are on 14 and Toulouse are on 13, but they play each other in the final round.  Unless Leicester beat Ospreys with a bonus point, but then contrive to lose to Toulouse by less that seven, or claim an unlikely draw, the runner-up here should be below the 20-point watermark.

Forecast: Leicester top the group, Toulouse second on 19 points

Pool 3: Biarritz are second on 9 points, and still have to face Harlequins.  Quins are runaway winners here and should have eyes on securing the top seeding.  Biarritz can achieve a maximum of 19 points, but that would require they beat Quins with a try-scoring bonus.

Forecast: Harlequins through, with six wins.  Biarritz second with 15 points.

Pool 4: Ulster losing to Northampton this weekend could have significant knock-on effects, and not in a good way.  Had they lost, Northampton were buried, but they’ve been handed a lifeline.  Ulster are still in control here, despite the hiccup and should still come out on top, though the final game in Castres could be nervy.  Northampton have 10 points and with Castres at home and Glasgow away, they, like Munster, will be eyeing up a 10 point haul, that would put them on 20 points.

Forecast: Ulster through, Northampton second, on 19 points, with only one of the two bonus points.

Pool 5: Clermont are home and hosed here.  They’ll beat Exeter at home and crush Scarlets, putting them on six from six.  Leinster have it all to do.  They haven’t had their try-scoring form with them this season, but should be able to manufacture a four-try win over Scarlets.  That would leave them travelling to a doughty Exeter looking for a four-try win to try and get to the magical 20 point mark.  Memories of Bath in 2006 spring to mind, but they’ll need to look considerably sharper than they have done to to do it.  Exeter are no pushovers and could still have the Amlin to play for.

Forecast: Clermont top.  Leinster to get two wins, but only one bonus point: 19 points.

Pool 6: for Leinster fans, if they do get to 20 points, it all looks to hinge on this pool.  Toulon are on 18 points and Montpellier are on 13.  The other two teams in the group are hopeless: Sale and Cardiff.  Toulon will beat Cardiff at home and top the group.  Montpellier should beat Sale, getting themselves to 17 at least.  Montpellier face Toulon at home in the final week.  Toulon should be already qualified when the game takes place.  Montpellier’s need will surely be greater.  A win and they’d launch themselves to 21 points at least.  Leinster fans must hope that Toulon turn up and win in Montpellier, or that Sale manage to recover from their 62-0 beting to somehow beat Montpellier.  Neither is especially likely.

Forecast: Toulon to top the group, but lose in Montpellier.  Montpellier to finish second with 21 points.

Overall forecast: Montpellier and Munster through as best runners-up.

The above of course, would leave our quarter final rankings looking something like:

  1. Harlequins
  2. Clermont
  3. Toulon
  4. Ulster
  5. Saracens
  6. Leicester
  7. Munster/Montpellier
  8. Munster/Montpellier

So the good news for Munster is we think they will not only sneak through, but avoid having to go to Toulon for another mashing. Clermont is equally as intimidating a venue of course, but it’s not the site of Munster’s most significant mental scarring. The Stoop would be a nice venue for a knock-out game – blood capsules all round!

Leinster in Big Game Loss Shocker

So, triple European champions, unbeaten by all comers except Clermont under Joe Schmidt, where did it all go wrong? Granted, Leinster aren’t mathematically out yet, but to get through they will need to score four tries in both remaining fixtures – a number they have not yet reached in the four games to date.

What has been different this year? Why have Leinster, just the second team ever to win the HEC twice in a row, only managed to put away the lamentable Scarlets with anything approaching ease? There are a number of factors, but they essentially boil down to two – the set piece and injuries.

The half-time Hobson’s Choice faced by Joe Schmudt on Saturday – take off Damien Browne for Devin Toner to shore up your lineout, but essentially concede the scrum – encapsulated Leinster’s shortcomings this season. While the scrum ran out of steam, certain chickens came home to roost in the second row – let’s examine each in detail.

When Mike Ross was at Harlequins, he played 62 games in 3 seasons. In his first season back in D4, under Mike Cheika, he played 21 – that’s about 21 a season on average. These game were played in Oooooooooooohh the Premiership, a few HEC games, and mostly Magners League for Leinster – 21 a year is what Ireland’s cosseted centrally contracted players normally do in a year – it’s a manageable number.

Since Schmudt took over in Leinster, Ross has played 77 games in 2.5 seasons – 55 for Leinster (including 22 HEC) and 22 for Ireland – that’s an average of around 30, and at a much higher level. Its been noticeable this season how his energy levels have been notably below those of previous seasons – the sheer workload of two triumphant HEC campaigns, RWC11 and 2 Six Nations have taken it out of him. He has produced thus far when it mattered, against Clermont away, the Pumas and (ahem) the hard-scrummaging Scarlets, but he has begun to look exhausted. It rather puts Declan Kidney’s judgement that Ross needed more gametime this November in harsh light, and the fatigue reached its apogee as the Clermont scrum milked him for penalties (5 in total) prompting Barnes to threaten a binning, at which point he was withdrawn.

Ross has been run into the turf, pretty much out of necessity, and he had no more to give. Leinster signed Jamie Hagan in 2011 to lessen his workload – that didn’t work out – and Michael Bent this autumn, who can hopefully step in for the Pro12 fixtures between now and the next HEC game and give Rosser a much-deserved break.

In the second row, however, Leinster are largely responsible for their own fate. After Nathan Hines left in the summer of 2011, Leinster have resorted to increasingly desperate efforts to recruit a second row of top-class HEC quality. The likes of Ed O’Donohue and Steven Sykes came and went, Devin Toner failed to make a big push for selection, and Leo Cullen all the while has slowed down. Brad Thorn bailed out a tired looking sector last season (its hard to see them having won in Bordeaux without him) and Damo Browne is really a jobbing workhorse who gets found out at this level. Mike McCarthy can’t arrive soon enough – Leinster have the weakest second row of all 4 provinces right now, and it finally cost them in a big game.

On the injury front, Leinster have had something of a perfect storm this season, at some point or another being without Risteard O hOstrais, Sean O’Brien, Dom Ryan, Isaac Boss, Dorce, BOD, Luke Fitzgerald, Bob, Little Bob and Eoin O’Malley.  It’s not so much the count as the concentration; the majority are in the outside back division and under 26 years old – somewhere you’d expect to have a lower attrition rate.

Leinster are neither the biggest nor the fastest team in Europe.  What they rely on is accuracy, in particular in their passing on the gainline and at the breakdown.  They have not been at their best in either facet this season, but looking at the backline on Saturday it’s no surprise.  Of the five backs, only one – Goodman, who does not look tailor made to play Schmidt’s gameplan – was playing in his natural position.  Missing key outside backs like Brian O’Driscoll and Rob Kearney is one thing, but when the first line of reserves (O’Malley, Dave Kearney) is taken out as well, Leinster were left with a pretty weird looking backline – a 10 at 15, a 15 on the wing, a centre on the other wing, and a 12 at 13.  Little wonder they played without cohesion – and it was doubly unfortunate that the likes of Fionn Carr and Andrew Conway had no form at inopportune moments when a more natural-looking back 3 was in order.

That sequence of long stretches without key players was something they managed to avoid for 2010/11 and 2011/12, and that little bit of fortune deserted them this season – there is a reason it’s so hard to win the HEC twice in a row, and you need a little bit of the rub of the green to do it. When you consider the great teams that haven’t done it – Munster, Toulouse, Stade Francais, Wasps, even Oooooooooooooohh Bath in the early days – the magnitude of Leinster’s achievement is more obvious.

So where to now for Leinster? As we said above, they are technically still in the competition, but they are currently ranked 5th of 6 second place sides, and are behind Munster and the Saints as well – progress is unlikely (more on this later this week). Saturday had an odd fin de siecle feel about it – BOD is probably in his last season, Dorce and Leo Cullen are getting on, and the talk is that Joe Schmidt will be going back to New Zealand at the end of next season. Winning the Pro12 (and preferably handing a hammering to those pesky Ospreys), the only trophy yet to be captured by Schmidt,  is likely this season’s new target. Leinster, when fully fit, have huge strength in depth in the backrow and the backline – but a re-tread of some of the tight 5 is necessary.

It says it all that, in 2.5 seasons, only Clermont (3 times from 5) have bested Joe Schmidt’s Leinster, and the teams they have beaten is a veritable who’s who of HEC history – Leicester, Toulouse, Northampton, Ulster and Saracens. They have been the best Irish rugby team we have seen and have opened new and tantalising possibilities for all Irish rugby fans – the idea that a team of Irish players could play with the skill, handling and verve that Leinster have since 2010 would have been so far from the collective rugby conciousness in 2010 as to have been just a dream. That’s what Schimdt’s Leinster have really done – made that dream a reality.

Siege Mentality

Down the years, many a successful coach has driven on his team by creating a siege mentality within the camp.  No less a man than the great Sir Alex Ferguson, before becoming a darling of the media himself, used what he perceived to be a London bias in the English press to motivate his team.  No one likes us, we don’t care, he would say, and the team bought into his vision.

The Irish love a siege mentality and traditionally only ever reach a peak when they’re written off.  Remember beating Australia in Auckland?  Remember the 1991 World Cup?  Great performances from a team dismissed in advance.  At provincial level, the siege mentality has been a huge factor in how Irish rugby lines have been formed.  And it looks like it’s found a new home (incidentally, Connacht permanently have a siege mentality, so let’s leave them out for the moment).

Historically, the chip on the shoulder was always seen as a Munster thing.  It’s what drove them on to being the most successful team of the early professional era.  Munster rugby long held a view that Leinster and Ulster, with their wealthier private-schools-based catchment area and powerful boardroom presence, cocked a snoop at them and national teams reflected a selection bias against them.  Back in the days of selection commitees there was certainly  a sense that the school tie was as important as a player’s ability.  When the Heineken Cup launched and Irish rugby built itself around provincial franchises, Munster used the chip on its collective shoulder to brilliant effect.  They had always dominated the club game, and with Limerick and Cork now aligned in pursuit of a common goal they took the opportunity to show the Nordies and the D4-heads just how good they could be when given a proper chance.  The rest we know – they dominated Europe and national selection for the guts of a decade.

But a siege mentality can only last so long.  Munster became media darlings on a near mythic scale.  Anyone following our twitter feed will know that we don’t entirely buy into the extraordinary levels of mythology that get perpetrated at the very mention of a late Saturday afternoon kick-off in Thomond Park, but there are plenty who do.  Munster, the pride of Irish warriors, stitching the tears of Ginger McLoughlin into the team shirt, was born.  They became the embodiment of everyting great about Irish sport, a brilliant and heroic team.  When everyone loves you, it’s hard to claim that nobody likes you and you don’t care.

So the siege mentality was picked up by Leinster, who were seen as the team opposite to Munster in every way.  In a wonderful article, Matt Williams recently described a speech made in the dressing room by Denis Hickie after Leinster beat Clermont Auvergne in the Stade Marcel Michelin in 2003.  They had little travelling support, no more than a handful of family members who joined the players in the dressing room.  Hickie said that Leinster had no ‘Red Army’ equivalent following them and no support in the media but that none of that mattered.  Everyone important to Leinster Rugby was in that dressing room and that was enough; they had to do it for each other.  When we read it, it made us think about something we’d never considered before: that it’s great saying ‘we’re going to win for the fans who are the best in the world’, but having an army of passionate support is in fact a luxury that plenty of teams don’t have.  Some team simply have to win for themselves.

The culmination was in 2009, when Michael Cheika drove his team to new levels of feral hunger by exposing them to the full scale of the media hubbub, which was at that point in time in full Munster Lovin’ flow.  Niall Kiely’s infamous smugfest was apparently pinned to the wall in the Leinster dressing room that day.

Again, though, circumstances changed.  Joe Schmidt brought a new skills-based emphasis and didn’t require the media to motivate his team.  Besides, once up and running, his slick Leinster team themselves became the most celebrated rugby team in the land.  The image of an exclusive school boys’ club was long removed and Leinster the family-friendly creche-cum rugby-club was a hit with the public.  The siege mentality could be put down.

So it is that Ulster look to be the team in possession.  They have a real chippy look this season.  They look like a bunch of caged beasts (with an appropriate nod to the memory of Nevin Spence, which seems to be driving them on to lay down something great in tribute).  Leinster and Munster still seem to swallow up most of the rugby oxygen, with Ulster a bit of an afterthought.  They’ve had to take Gerry Thornley saying things like ‘Ulster might be the better team, but Munster are the better province’, whatever that means.  They’ve had Hugh Farrelly write that Ulster beating Munster in the quarter-final last year was bad for Irish rugby.  Their players seem to draw the short straw come national selection time, with Chris Henry, Paul Marshall, Dan Tuohy, Paddy Jackson and Tom Court all missing out on selection at various times – and all to Munster players.  They might be entitled to feel that none of the Irish media – dominated by Munster and to a lesser extent Leinster – really like them.  And they don’t care.

But where does this leave Munster? Stuck in the middle of the Pro12 and in the most precarious position of the Big Three in terms of Heineken Cup, while Leinster are reigning champs of Europe and Ulster are unbeaten this season, they are right now the third best team in Irish rugby.  Shouldn’t they be the ones trying to foster the spirit of indignation?

For sure, but how?  The memories of Munster’s greatness are still fresh and there’s no real desire to turn the crosshairs on a province which has given so much to Irish rugby in the recent past.  The respect they’ve earned down the years has long-term value.  Even tedious 15-9 wins over a dull Saracens team have the press swooning like its the Beatles and are described as ‘magical nights’, while ROG even at his most ordinary can be described as the ‘perfect 10 giving a tactical masterclass’.

While we are not proclaiming that the entire Irish media are biased towards Munster, we do have a theory on this. The sports media in Ireland is pretty uncritical in general – they reflect a public which proclaims extreme loyalty towards “their” team (whoever it may be) and wants to see that reflected in what they read. In addition, Ireland is a small and parochial country – the sports media are in regular contact with coaches and players and like to keep on good terms with them. Two stories stand out in this regard:

  • Dwarf-gate in Queenstown – while Mike Tindall and various other England players were having photos surrepticiously taken by hacks writing Gotcha! stories, the Ireland team were in the exact same bar … with the Irish rugby press, all drinking together and having great gas
  • Fangio once told a story about how he wrote “Peter Clohessy would be the only man in Limerick whose car could be left unlocked on the street and it would still be there when he got back” – he meant it as a compliment that, in a city with a gritty reputation, the Claw was held in huge esteem. By the standards of (again) the English gutter press, it’s pretty tame stuff – but Clohessy took exception, and went out of his way to point that out to Fanning

So that means lots of positivity – but what has this got to do specifically with Munster? The punditry class in Ireland is dominated by former players, and those from Munster appear to be more reluctant to dole out criticism of their province than those with ties to Leinster or Ulster.

Leinster, in their lengthy fallow period, had to endure the likes of Franno and Jim Glennon sniping from the sidelines, sometimes with some pretty nasty observations (remember the Leinster Ladyboys?).  Ulster have always had a culture of criticism, and tend more naturally to see the glass as half-empty.  Former Ulster players feel a responsibility to hold today’s team up against the standard of their interpro-dominating vintages from the past. But former Munster players appear lothe to criticise the players wearing the shirt.  There’s a culture of blood being thicker than water, for sticking up for the team, buying into the ethos – embedded from their playing days when they had to do exactly the same.

Perhaps it will change once Generation Ligind move into media roles – they knew what it took to achieve greatness, know what professionalism is all about and know the standard required to make Munster great again. In fact, Alan Quinlan looks extremely capable of hard-hitting analysis [aside: when, as a former Munster player, he tipped them to lose at home to Saracens, it was so noteworthy the boys on OTB speculated about “Quinny Slams Munster” headlines], and Jirry Flannery is on record as saying he didn’t really rate the next group of players coming through, and in a remarkable swipe, said he didn’t have much time for ex-players hanging-on to the coat-tails of the current squad.  He’s yet to establish a niche for himself in the media, but could be interesting, and his hair is really fascinating.  And surely, when ROG eventually retires after the 2021 Lions tour and moves into punditry he’ll offer a suitably withering assessment of the shortcomings of his replacement at fly-half.  Now that has to be worth waiting for.