All posts in category Leinster

Y’know, Rugby Matches and That

What’s all this, then?  Actual rugby matches between provincial and club sides throughout Ireland, Scotland, Wales, England, Italy and France?  Sounds like an intriguing prospect.  This lark might even catch on.  Northampton vs. Leinster?  Perpignan vs. Munster?!  This sounds bloody fantastic.  We want MORE of this sort of thing.  Certainly not less of it anyway.  Or some diluted version involving the Portuguese team (‘Except you Julian Bardy, the only player anyone has heard of, you have to play for Clermont’) making up the numbers.

It’ll be a merciful relief to get back to the reliably invigorating business of the Heineken Cup.  The preliminary rounds seem so long ago at this stage, with the November series and the endless wranglings in the interim, it almost requires an effort to remember exactly how it’s all poised.  Did Munster really lose in Edinburgh?  Good Lord, they did!  And what a result from Ulster to sack Montpellier on their own turf.  Leinster find themselves two-from-two and Connacht have a win over Zebre and ran Saracens to the last play in their first game, prompting a hilarious tweet from Stephen Jones trying to convince everyone – including himself, presumably – that it was a comfortable win for Globo Gym against the ‘non-elite’ Connacht.  How quaint all that posturing seems now.

All of which brings us to the glorious double headers, often the highpoint of the calendar.  Is there any fresh way to say they often decide the outcome of the pool?  Probably not, but who cares – they do.  You can cough up a cheap loss in the first two rounds, but only if you atone for it here.  The good people at ERC, or Sky, or wherever these things are decided by tend to orchestrate the schedule so the two big boys in each pool cross paths in the back-to-backs, so winning both legs isn’t always a requirement, and simply coming out on top in match points is often enough.

That’s certainly the case with Leinster, who have had a curious season so far.  Having won in Ospreys, they made heavy weather of Castres at home but the pool qualifier will come from this match-up in any case.  A bonus point on the road will be enough to keep Leinster in the hunt, providing they can win at home.  Northampton can be odd, though.  Last year they surrendered meekly at home to Ulster, apparently sealing their fate, before improbably turning the tables in Ravenhill of all places.  Ben Foden’s injured though, and he provides their creative spark.  Over to you, Courtney Lawes, to inflict the damage.

Munster have a different set of parameters.  They arguably need to win both games, having lost to Edinburgh in a disastrous opening match.  They have the home leg first in what has come to be known as – thanks Gerry – the Sunday mass slot.  It’s often lamented, but we have few memories of them playing particularly badly in it and they should have the goods to beat Perpignan in Thomond Park with a bit to spare.  The acid test will be trying to go down to the Aime Geral and getting a win.  It’s a daunting stadium, but Perpignan themselves don’t intimidate too many teams these days; they currently lie 9th in the Top 14 and Munster are certainly capable of winning there.  Last time they went there nobody fancied them at all, but they were rampant.  Tomas O’Leary was on fire and Donnacha Ryan came off the bench to announce his talent on the big stage. Perpignan have a monstrous pack and a wonderfully creative outhalf, but, of all the French teams in the HEC, they are probably the one you would want.

Ulster have the easier part of their assignment.  They’re in a great position after beating Montpellier, and should be looking for nine points as a minimum return against a Treviso side that hasn’t really picked up where they left off last season. The natty Italians have a habit of making life awkward for Ulster, but got spanked in Ravers earlier this year – Ulster will be pretty confident of snagging 5 points on Saturday, and should have the momentum to grind out a win away. Those 9 points should more or less wrap up a home quarter-final … assuming no flakes like last season’s home loss to the Saints.

And don’t forget Connacht, who play Toulouse, who aren’t quite the – yaswnsville – ‘aristocrats of Europe’ these days, although they did win away to Saracens, which has seen them installed as favourites to win their group.  Connacht will struggle in the away tie, but will certainly be targeting a rousing performance at the Sportsground.  It’ll be Toulouse’s second visit to the dog track, but the hope that the less than salubrious surroundings will put the Toulousains off their stride proved hopelessly wide of the mark on their first, and Connact – enduring a pretty hopeless season and rock bottom of the Pro12 as it stands – will be in need of some sort of miracle to come out with a win.

by whiffofcordite on December 5, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 5, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/12/05/yknow-rugby-matches-and-that/

Dead Parrot Sketch

So, its come to this. The French clubs are back in the fold, helped by a shove from the union, their long-term intentions as unclear as ever – they said the RCC fiasco was a way for them to get what they wanted, but we aren’t sure what they actually want.

  • More money? Seems unlikely – French clubs earn more at home. It would be nice, but hardly a reason to join McCafferty’s revolution. Unless its all about permanently de-stabilizing Europe – that would earn them more money – see option 3 below.
  • Less Rabo teams? Well, the structure sans les Rosbifs is apparently the entire Rabo league, 6 Frenchies and 2 composite whipping boys from Spain and Portugal, with the Amlin Vase gone. Pretty unsuccessful way to make qualification more meritocratic (should that be “meritocratic”? Not sure)
  • Top16? This is what we think. Discredit and destabilize Europe enough that a Top16 becomes a safety line for French clubs. Playing the long game

With the pliant UK media going as overboard as ever (the Grauniad didn’t report on the French clubs leaving on Thursday, then headlined it on Friday with “French U-turn jeopardises European rugby” – yeah, its the French who have done the jeopardising…), PR have air cover for their intransigence, with little public questioning of their strategy and long-term ambitions (bar Martyn Thomas calling for McCafferty’s head on a plate). And little detail  on the minutiae of the BT contract either.

The increasingly woeful utterances by PR are an embarrassment to English rugby:

  • Its us and the French!
  • Its us and the Welsh!
  • Its us and the South Africans!
  • Its us and … er … financial oblivion!

Its basically the Dead Parrot Sketch – this RCC is very much alive sir!

McCafferty’s latest is to insist the English aren’t coming back and is being reduced to saying the Premiership will be better as teams can play all their players instead of saving them for Europe (I thought it was only Rabo clubs that could do this?).  The risk now is the unhappy Welsh regions actually try and force their unions hand and try and join an expanded Premiership – its what they want, and it might actually make them financially viable.

The situation is still pretty fluid – a HEC with 12 Rabo teams and some PIGS seems unlikely to work, and PR aren’t going to go away. PR aren’t completely isolated yet, the RFU are reluctantly yoked to them, and the Welsh clubs are enthusiastic about games against English clubs. Bottom line for Ireland – short of the English coming back to the fold unconditionally, nothing is good news.

Its unclear how European club rugby will look in 5 years, but if there is a Top16 and some Welsh clubs in the Premiership, Irish rugby will struggle massively – Eddie wrote a nice piece on the questionable long-term benefits of Irish provinces dominating the Pro12. The HEC has been a stunning success in the last decade, but, paradoxically, that has alerted the English and French to the market for more and higher-quality rugby. If you can’t beat the Irish provinces on the pitch, why not remove their lifeline to top-class rugby and tempt the players to join your clubs?

The parallels with soccer in the 1990s are increasing – the governing bodies never directly conceded to a European super league, but the clubs pushed the envelope so far on Champions League expansion, they got one by proxy. The RFU and WRU can’t ignore the next tier of rugby in England and Wales – the Great Schism of nearly 120 years ago is still hard-wired into rugby union administration (recall professionalism was conceded to avoid loss of control 100 years after the first schism) and splits will be avoided at all costs.

This isn’t really about the HEC, its about power and money – the bell might have been rung on the HEC, and, as Eddie would say, you can’t un-ring it. The prospect of expanded French and Anglo-Welsh competitions might have moved a little closer – lets hope the Irish don’t end up relying on the Scots, Italians and the rest of Europe for games. We’re no closer to a long-term resolution, but the danger signals for Ireland remain at DEFCON 1.

by whiffofcordite on December 3, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ireland, Leinster, Munster, RCC, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 3, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/12/03/dead-parrot-sketch/

Scapegoat!

If there is one man in Ireland who its easy to dump blame on, it’s Tom Court. Court joined Ulster in 2006, aged 26, with a little bit of Super Rugby experience. Back then, he played both sides, but ended up specializing on the loosehead side, and has blossomed (if that is the right word) into a very competent and useful player. He has been one of the standout looseheads in the last few years of Heineken rugby and has been a major factor in Ulster’s pack becoming the best in the Pro12.

He has wracked up a few Ireland caps as well – 32 to date – and got a Lions call-up, albeit a fortuitous one. But Court’s international career will be remembered for one thing – the demolition of our scrum at Twickers in 2012 when he came off the bench and played out of position. This narrative is hugely unfair – Court had soldiered manfully, a diligent filler-inner, providing cover from the bench for both sides of the scrum when needed, yet got dumped on when he needed support.

In a way it was understandable – Court is Australian and you won’t get anyone building him up in the media or pencilling him into the team, especially ahead of a domestic-born yeoman who agent is prominent on certain TV outlets. The man himself was dropped out of the Irish 23 for last years Six Nations for Dave Kilcoyne, but came right back in when DJ Church was on the naughty step – Kilcoyne might have been the better impact sub, but Court was clearly the better man to start.

And now Court is on his way and has joined Reading Samoa (we’ll have to stop calling them that – they are Irish-ing up to the max with iHumph, TOL, Jamie Hagan and now Court) on a 3-year contract. Our feeling is that Humph wasn’t for budging and for a man of his vintage (he turned 33 earlier this month), three years is a good deal, but it fits with how his Irish career has gone – and we wonder will Ulster not know what they had until it’s gone.

So where does it leave Ulster? And what about Ireland? Ulster first – they have two looseheads behind Court – Calum Black and Paddy McAlister. McAlister would be the better-known and was certainly the better prospect, but hasn’t returned from injury since coming on in the HEC final in 2012. Calum Black has stepped in and has done ok, without troubling Court. It would be fair to say neither are mapped by Joe Schmidt at present.

Which brings us on to Ireland. Here is how we would see the rankings of internationally mapped Irish looseheads right now:

  1. DJ Church. No competition
  2. Jack McGrath. Vaulted Killer Davecoyne in the squad pecking order due to some impressive performance this season, and was MOTM on his debut (albeit slightly romantically from Wardy – we’d have picked the much-maligned/warrior-who-never-takes-a-backward-step – delete as per prvincial leanings appropriate – POM).  Appears to be second in command.
  3. Tom Court. Sure, he might be easy to drop, but remains arguably the second best scrummaging loosehead against all but the most technical opponents.  Still in the picture.
  4. Dave Kilcoyne. The well-connected Munsterman did a good job for Ireland off the bench last year and looked to be progressing nicely, but hasn’t started the season as well. You probably haven’t heard, but Frankie is his agent.
  5. James Cronin. Highly exciting youngster, who impressed in a high profile cameo against Leinster. It will be interesting to see how he finishes the season – will he take Killer’s shirt?
  6. Marcus Horan. Wait, off that, Deccie has gone

So, as of next season, the odd man out Court will be sunning himself in Lahn. Well, in Reading. Which will leave the best four looseheads in Ireland playing in Munster and Leinster. If this were Australia, and the best four looseheads (I know, right, Australia having FOUR whole looseheads is a bit of a laugh, but bear with us) were playing at the Reds and the Brumbies, one of them would just be told, in no uncertain terms, he was a Waratah now.

The IRFU have talked a good game to date about the next step after banishing foreigners from rugger was to spread talent through the provinces better, most recently in Cummiskey’s uncharacteristically excellent interview in the Irish Times excellent November rugger magazine last week. Time to see if they will put their money where their mouth is. Peter Nucifora, if it is actually he, might have an input here too – and he probably won’t be recommending queueing them up in Munster and Leinster.

We think / have been told that while Healy and McGrath are contracted through next year, both Munstermen will be out of contract at the end of the year – Cronin will surely enjoy an upgrade on whatever he is on now if his upward curve continues, but how would Frankie feel about his other client being offered, say, a central contract … with Ulster. Can you imagine Dave Kilcoyne fitting in in Belfast? With Munster currently in some financial woe, perhaps that might be his best option. Unless he goes to London Irish too.

by whiffofcordite on November 14, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ireland, Leinster, Munster, Tom Court, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 14, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/11/14/scapegoat/

All The Rugby

“They didn’t play any rugby” Matt O’Connor, of Connacht, who Leinster had just narrowly beaten, 26th October 2013.

Leaving aside the unedifying nature of the Leinster head coach’s remarks about Connacht and turn that on its head. If Connacht didn’t play any rugby, then Leinster played all the rugby on the night, right? Sheesh – if that was all the rugby Leinster will play, they are in trouble. Saturday seemed to herald reality setting in around the Oar Dee Esh – Leinster are really in transition now, both in terms of personnel and gameplan. And grace of the head coach, but that’s another matter.

We have blogged about this recently, but it seems more real now after two successive home games in which Leinster played desperate rugby against two limited teams (apologies to our Western friends and any freaks who follow us in Castres).

The Scooby Doo ending after the Milky Bar Kid swanned off to Lansdowne Road to be biased in favour of Leinster players (© C. George, Cork) was that Matt O’Connor would come in, hand local favourite Ewan “Ian Madigan” Madeegan the keys to the house and continue to play the intelligent and incisive offloading and running game that Schmidty used to conquer Europe. After all, when he was hired, ‘continuity’ was the keyword bandied around by the bigwigs upstairs.  Sure, results might decline a little, but we’ll still get to the HEC/RCC (delete as per status on the financial-oblivion-o-meter) knock-out stages and the Pro12 playoffs, they said.

Now, they might still do that, but it seems they will be doing it the down and dirty way. There was a lot of pointing at Leicester Tigers try-scoring record and the surprising sight of Oooooooooh Manu Tuilagi eschewing running into someone to find actual space  when O’Connor pitched up in D4 – but the Tigers are the masters of the pragmatic and are fundamentally a team of tough forwards. O’Connor’s Leinster will be using route one as their base, and possibly adding baubles when the appropriate time comes.

And this is rankling a bit with the D4tress faithful [Aside: can one be faithful if not from Munster? Maybe faithful but not brave. Or something. JOKE] who have gotten fat on a diet of spellbinding tries and Europe-conquering under Schmidty. Don’t forget, when Cheika came in with a mandate to toughen up the pack who had been eaten up by the Liginds, there was plenty of discontentment about the grim style he adopted, even while it was acknowledged that his job was to start with the forwards. And the 2008 league win would have been a platform for absolutely nothing had they lost to Munster in *that* game in 2009.

They were rank outsiders for that game for a good reason. They had played a huge amount of dross in Europe that year – a limp defeat in Castres and a dire try-less drudge against Embra in their final game. The reason Leinster had to travel to the Stoop for the quarter-final was that they had qualified as the lowest-ranked group winner, in spite of a perfect start where they were on ten points after two tricky games – and then when they got there, the combination of manic defence, Quins butchery and a minor miracle got them through. The Liginds were a far superior team that got ambushed. And the rest, as they say, is history.

The functional league win and Stoop game have become part of the narrative, but it’s easy to forget how unhappy many Leinster fans were with the rugby being played by Cheika.

It’s easy to sympathise with O’Connor – he has an impossible succession job: his best player has left, his best remaining player is being heavily linked with a move to France, and the best player in Leinster’s (and Ireland’s) history has a maximum of twelve-ish games left in blue should he stay fit. Tough gig by anyone’s standards. But no-one at all expected Leinster to end up playing like this so quickly. Hopefully it’s a passing phase (the first this season in blue – lolzers) but it’s funny how quickly a decline can kick in – 21 months after the Munster Rolls-Royce cruised over the Galactico Ospreys side, they were a rabble being beaten senseless in Toulon and looking way, way over the hill. Leinster fans will hope that, if they do plumb the depths of those results, they at least do it while playing decent rugby. Right now, that doesn’t look a good bet.

by whiffofcordite on October 30, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Bish Bash Bosh, HEC, IRFU, Joe Schmidt, Leinster, Managerial Merry-Go-Round, Matt O'Connor

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 30, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/10/30/all-the-rugby/

Get MADGE on!

Leinster fans are somewhat conflicted after their side’s ho-hum victory over Castres at the RDS on saturday.  The good news is that they are two from two after a tricky pair of opening games.  If they come out the right side of the head-to-head with Northampton they should be in the box seat as far as qualification is concerned.

Churlish though it may appear to be whingeing after back-to-back wins, there is some cause for concern, not least that Leinster have so far played a somewhat reductive brand of rugby.  Without wanting to come over too Leinsterlion – sorry Leinsterlion – Leinster fans have grown used to seeing their team play with a certain panache.  Even when they were a bunch of second raters in Munster’s shadow they could still turn on the style with reasonable regularity.  It’s not a csae of wanting to see style-for-style’s-sake, but rather that it is the approach that best suits the team.

In the aftermath of the Ospreys match nobody noticed much, and those who noticed didn’t mind.  Away games in Europe, even against less than brilliant teams, are hard, and any sort of a win counts as a good day at the office.  Besides, even Joe Schmidt’s heralded purveyors of the all-court-game generally saved the glam for the RDS and were happy to tough it out on the road.  There wasn’t much flair in evidence when Leinster won by seven points in Glasgow, or when they were held tryless but kicked their way to a hard-fought win in Bath.

But in the return home matches they were rampant, setting a tempo their opponents couldn’t handle and racking up multiple tries in the process.  And therein lies the rub.  Having got the show on the road by beating Ospreys, most expected Leinster to dial up the pace a couple of notches and try to run the legs off a Castres side that, although champions of France and worthy of respect because of that, have never shown the greatest inclination to bring their A-game to away Heineken Cup matches.

Instead Leinster played conservatively, kicking much ball away, and rarely looked to put much width on the ball.  There’s nothing wrong with winning ugly per se, but is grinding it out really their best suit?  Midway through the second half it was looking like Leinster’s approach was landing them in a spot of bother.  Had Remi Tales not butchered a crossfield grubber when there were players queuing up to score a try, Castres would have moved in front on the scoreboard and put Leinster in a deeply uncomfortable spot.  French sides can lose interest in away matches for sure, but they can also become interested if they sense a famous result is in the offing, and had Castres taken a lead at that point, their determination levels would have gone up a notch.

Much of the consternation inevitably revolves around the selection at fly-half, where Matt O’Connor has made it clear his preference is for the more controlling 10, Jimmy Gopperth.  Again, the home-away conundrum is at play.  Many fans assumed that while Gopperth was the man for the Ospreys game, Ian Madigan would be the appropriate selection to take on Castres.  But those fans have been living on a diet of Joe Schmidt selections for three seasons.  Schmidt habitually picked a different team for home games to away matches, usually emphasising tempo at home (Reddan, Jennings) and beefing up the set piece for away matches (McLaughlin, van der Merwe), but there are no guarantees O’Connor will see things the same way.  It looks for the moment that Gopperth is first choice.  He’s a fine player, no question, but his strengths are his kicking game and his ability to run with the ball on occasion.  He’s not really a distributor who will bring the best out the backline around him.  Most concerning of all was that when the game was crying out for Madigan, he was almost the last reserve to be let on to the pitch; and when he did come on it was at 12, not 10.

No doubt there’s an element of bias in favour of Madigan on the terraces.  Fans naturally favour their home-grown players over foreign signings, it’s only human.  But there is a growing feeling that Matt O’Connor doesn’t really rate, or trust, Madigan.  Why only let him on so late in the game?  Perhaps the expensive yellow card against Munster has got up his coach’s nose and he has to serve a spell in pergutory.

Leinster’s next two games in the Heineken Cup will be far harder than their first two.  Northampton are still short of being a great team, but they can raise their game to a high level, and the Courtney Lawes Hype Machine is starting to crank up again after three years in mothballs.  If Leinster stick to their tactic of kicking too much ball away, and kicking it too long and not chasing hard enough, they will be made to look foolish against a team with Ben Foden and George North in the back three.

The optimistic scenario is that Leinster are still operating with a patched-up backline and once O’Driscoll and Fitzgerald – who looked very threatening when he came on – are fully restored to the team that there will be more emphasis on attack and putting the ball through the hands.  In the meantime, O’Connor has tightened up a defence that was more than a little creaky last season, and that focus will begin to shift to attacking and Leinster’s fabled gainline-passing.  One hopes Ian Madigan will be trusted to do some of the playmaking – after all, he’s awfully good at it when given the chance.

by whiffofcordite on October 22, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 22, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/10/22/get-madge-on/

Round One Ponderings

Celtalians United

The Heineken Cup has a new dynamic added this year, as a result of all the political shennanigans going on behind closed-ish doors.  It’s best described using a technical term known as hoping-all-the-English-teams-get-hammered.  Once upon a time a game between two likeable teams like Llanelli Scarlets and Harlequins would leave us more or less neutral.  Time to catch one’s breath before the nerve-jangling Leinster match starts.  Not this time.  I was leaping around the room like a Llenelli native.  Of course, the English media have developed a nice habit of having it every which way: if their teams win, it’s proof of their natural superiority (Stephen Jones’ bleating after Saracens held on by their fingernails against Connacht was classic lady-doth-protest stuff) and if they lose it’s only because the Celts get to rest players in the league.  Think of it as not only having your cake and eating it, but having it, eating it and smearing the creme-pat in everyone’s face before having them pay you for the privilege.

Advantage Somebody, or Deuce?

Was Ulster’s 22-16 win over Leicester a good result or not? We aren’t really sure to be honest. Here are some of our thoughts:

  1. A win is a win. In a pool like this, make sure you win your home games, accumulate bonus points when you can, and get one away win. Ulster are on course for what they would have planned out: two wins over Treviso, with a try bonus at home, plus a win and a losing bonus point against Leicester and Montpellier. That will give them 19 points and put them right in the mix
  2. Who will be happier? Two seasons ago, Leicester lost the head-to-head to Ulster 5-4. This was one of the things they would have planned to address this time around. With a losing bonus point, they’ll expect to improve that to 5-5 or even 4-5 (from an Ulster standpoint) come the Welford Road game. Leicester have a poor record in Ulster – this result will have delighted them
  3. Montpellier won with the type of ease at Treviso that has become uncommon of late. They are second in the Top14, and are purring. Ulster need to go down there and come home with a losing bonus point – their performances in their last two European games on French soil have been the type they’ll need to produce again, but it’s going to be really really tough.

Thing is though, when push comes to shove, letting Leicester score that last penalty to get within seven feels terribly important. We fear they’ll regret it.  At least they know what they’ve to work on though.  If they could hold onto the ball they’d have won by 20 points.  Catching practive all week, chaps, and double sessions for Andrew Trimble.

Leinster do a Munster

Playing possum in the Pro12 before cranking up the intensity was supposed to be the preserve of the red team in Ireland, but this week it was Leinster who tore up the form book and produced what was a consummate away performance in what looked a very difficult match.  They were superb, reasserting themselves as one of the tournament favourites.  Relying on emotionally uplifting occasions to bring out the best in the players is a risky business, though, and Leinster fans will be happier if they can start racking up wins and moving up the league table, but this was a first big win for Matt O’Connor and justified an unpopular, but pragmatic and ultimately successful, team selection.  The stars of the show were the backrow, though, who devoured their opponents.  Kevin McLoughlin, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip played as if they were caged up all week, ocasionally thrown scraps of meat and urged to fight over them.  Sure, the cage may have been in Juniors, and the raw meat was fillet steak, but still and all…

Ch-ching

Cost Saving of the Week was on ROG-cam.  The Sky cameraman was able to get ROG and Johnny into the same shot as Johnny lined up a penalty and ROG stood behind him in his waterboy bib.  No need for a separate ROG-cam anymore, these days only one unit is required.  The money saved appears to have been spent on a funny screen-truck/ice-cream van that Will Greenwood uses to ask Sean O’Brien what was going through his mind as he was smashing everyone.

We’ll talk Munster tomorrow.

by whiffofcordite on October 14, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 14, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/10/14/round-one-ponderings/

The Last Supper

And so, for possibly the last time ever, we write a preview for a tournament that has expanded the fan base and earning power of Northern Hemipshere rugby like no other. This time next year, we could be scrawling a few half-hearted lines on Pool 3 of the Rugby Champions Cup where “champions” Bath, Exeter, Stade Francais and the Saracns Globo Gym bosh it out for the right to get hockeyed by Toulon B in the Super Sixes stage. Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooohhh!!

Its quite obviously a complete fool’s errand to pick winners this far out, with so many variables between now and April, so we’re going to pick who gets through to the knock-out stages.

Pool 1: Castres, Leinster, Northampton, Ospreys

Very tough pool this for Leinster – they’ll need to win at least one away game to get through, and they have three tough ones. Leinster have started the season sluggishly and are missing Johnny Sexton badly – Ian Madigan has the talent to take the step up, but winning dirty away games in Europe is extremely tough, and this might be a year to chalk to experience. Leinster, Saints and Ospreys will all fancy winning their home games, and it could come down to who nicks what in Castres, and bonus points. Leinster have the advantage  of going to Castres late in the pool, when Castres have traditionally given up – this could end up the decisive factor. We’ll take Leinster to squeak through on their own, to an away quarter final, drawing on all their experience. The lurking Saints, replete with Kahn Fotuali’i and George North should not be underestimated, though they continue to look a top-class 10 away from being a really good team.  Brian O’Driscoll is, again, the key man for Leinster.

Pool 2: Cardiff, Exeter, Glasgow, Toulon

A gimme for the boshtastic champions here – the only game you can envisage sweat breaking is in Scotstoun, where Glasgae are a tough nut to crack. Problem is, the likes of Bakkies will only love stomping on the dreams of the brave Scots. Hard to see Toulon slipping up – they should have a home quarter final with plenty of tries in the bag. If Glasgae give this a lash, and there is no guarantee of that – the Pro12 has been their target in recent years – there is a potential lucky loser berth up for grabs here – Cardiff are dire and hemorrhaging players, and while Exeter are doughty and tough, they don’t have the class of Matawalu or Maitland in their ranks. But probably not. Toulon on their own.

Pool 3: Connacht, Saracens, Toulouse, Zebre

Exhibit A for the mouth-frothing McCafferty types – Connacht in the back door and Zebre permanent residents of the servant’s quarters. In previous seasons, Connacht have punched above their weight, but they are struggling so far this year – this could be less pleasant than previous years. Globo Gym have world dominating ambitions, but play a rank brand of rugby (albeit that in the Premiership they have shown a desire to expand their previously zero-dimensional style). If they didn’t give up home games for wads of cash, they might actually be contenders to win the pot itself – the agony if this lot took home the last ever HEC would be too much to bear. Toulouse are in re-building mode, and have had some moments of complete ineptitude in Europe in the last few years, but this really is an easy pool – Globo Gym and Toulouse to go through.

Pool 4: Clermont, Harlequins, Racing Metro, Scarlets

Four imperfect teams here – Clermont have the class and desire in Europe, but are ageing in Vern Cotter’s last year and are creaking at the seams a little. Quins seem to have hit a glass ceiling and were bitterly disappointing in their loss to Munster last season. Racing Metro can’t buy a try right now, and the Scarlets can’t scrummage. Seems like the Welshies might get beaten up a little here, and it will come down to one of the others getting a big win on the road. Clermont have the experience of this type of assignment, and that usually pays off in this tournament. This will be a fascinating pool – Racing Metro have no HEC pedigree to speak of, but they have outhalves (players and coaches) with five winners medals and immense experience. If Sexton gets the platform he needs, don’t rule out the Parisian toffs, but it’s the serial chokers from Montferrand who are the safer bet. On their own probably.

Pool 5: Leicester, Montpellier, Treviso, Ulster

Stinker of a draw for Ulster here, and very similar to that of two years ago, when they got through on the back of a memorable 41-7 thumping of the Tigers at Ravers. That was Palla’s first taste of the Friday Night Ravers Experience, and he almost turned Ulster as Paddy Wallace dumped Tom Croft on his backside. The difference then was they had Aironi to fill their boots against – here it’s Treviso who stand in their way, a much tougher prospect. Montpellier have the meanest pack in Europe, and look pretty well built for a pool like this – if they give it priority they have the tools to win it. Last year, they gave Europe a lash, but they were in with some Frenchies who they will never lie down against, and two bunnies (Cardiff and Sale) who are worse than all four teams here. This is Ulster’s last year with Afoa on board, but even with him, do they have the ballast up front to get points away from Ravers? The backs are immensely talented, probably the best in the pool, but we think Leicester have the class, the experience in assignments like this, and the memory of two years ago to come through this one. Montpellier are the next best bet, and Ulster are seriously unlucky.

Pool 6: Embra, Gloucester, Munster, Perpignan

This looked like a bye to the quarter final when the draw was made, and it still looks eminently do-able for Munster. A weakling Embra unit, a re-run of that game, and a bunch of flaky Frenchies piloted by James Hook look like easy meat. The flip side of that is that, if Gloucester get parity up front, their electric backs can beat anyone, Perpignan are formidable in their own ground, and Camille Lopez is pushing Hook for the USAP starting 10 berth. Much will depend on two people – Paul O’Connell and Ian Keatley. When O’Connell is available, Munster are 50% better, and if Keatley can manage a passable Rog impression, Munster will be home and hosed, replete with the usual Saturday evening tear-soaked home win. If USAP are interested, they could come through in a lucky losers slot built on two hammerings of Embra.

Our safe quarter-finalists: Clermont Auvergne, Leicester, Leinster, Munster, Perpignan, Saracens, Toulon, Toulouse

If we stuck our necks out: Montpellier, Munster, Northampton, Perpignan, Racing Metro, Saracens, Toulon, Toulouse

by whiffofcordite on October 10, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 10, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/10/10/the-last-supper/

Bump in the Road

When Johnny Sexton’s move to Paris went through last season, quite a few voices suggested that it need not be bad news and that Ian Madigan, with enough exposure to top level rugby, could go on to be even better than Sexton.  We were quick to disagree.  It cannot be an improvement to discard one of the world’s elite 10s in exchange for one who might some day go on to be better.  There are too many variables in the latter.

Saturday’s match in Thomond Park rather bore out our logic.  In a game where there wasn’t a whole lot between the teams in terms of creative rugby, the game was won by Munster primarily in two areas; the breakdown and the tactical kicking game.  Munster frequently flooded the breakdown, while Leinster appeared reluctant to put the necessary numbers in to secure quick ball.  It negated Leinster’s attack, which relies on Eoin Reddan’s speedy delivery to the back-line.

The kicking battle was not even a contest.  Munster’s up-and-unders were accurate and, most importantly, brilliantly chased, with Keith Earls particularly impressive.  Even when a Leinster player caught the kick he was quickly engulfed by red shirts and couldn’t retain possession.  On one such occasion it appeared Rob Kearney had only the support of Eoin Reddan as he was swallowed up by a mass of the Brave and Faithful, and the ball was duly turned over.  By contrast, Leinster kicked loosely, and were passive in their chasing.  Much of the inaccurate wellying came from the boot of Ian Madigan.

Madigan has been rightly heralded as the next big thing in Irish fly-half play, but those who are anticipating that he will simply morph into a player of Sexton’s standing simply through playing Heineken Cup matches need to check their expectations.  His talent is unquestioned, but it takes time, and considerable learning experiences which won’t always be positive, to develop into the sort of serial match-winner that Sexton, and indeed, Ronan O’Gara were.

O’Gara wasn’t born an ice cool clutch-player, nor he did he become one overnight.  He had to earn it, through years of hard matches and bitter disappointments.  The same goes for Sexton, who had to endure frequent brickbats before maturing into a Lions test-winning ten – indeed, he once endured a spell of form so wretched it appeared he was on his way out of Leinster.  Ian Madigan will hit his share of bumps in the road and, hopefully, in overcoming those he will become a better player.  On Saturday he was outplayed by Ian Keatley, a player with a comparatively mundane skillset.  Keatley is in the same boat at Munster; replacing a provincial legend.  He had a good game on Saturday night, but he too, will have his share of issues as he tries to make the shirt his own.

The gulf between the ‘very good’ fly half who can look fantastic on his home patch and the great one, who can pilot his team to wins in Heineken Cup knockout matches and trips to the most intimidating grounds in Europe is wider than one might think.  In tough away games, refereeing decisions are usually unfavourable, the crowd will meet your every mistake with howls of derision and you need every point you can get to win.  Away wins in rugby are precious; even mediocre teams like Bath and Perpignan make for hard opponents on their home turf.  Talent alone isn’t enough; a special kind of mental fortitude is needed.  Think of Sexton’s last minute penalty to retrieve a draw in Montpellier, or the manner in which he controlled the game in Bordeaux to see Leinster through to a Heineken Cup final.  Or ROG’s half-way line penalty against Leicester to win the match, or his performance in the Stoop last season.

Some players simply don’t have what it takes.  James Hook, for all his natural ability, has never learned the fine art of consistent game management, nd his Perpignan team rarely win away.  Whether the Ians Keatley and Madigan become the next James Hook or go on to emulate the provincial legends and become serial medal-winners is still very much an open question.

P.S. How good was that James Cronin fellow?  What an impact he had!  We’ve had our suspicions that David Kilcoyne is a little over-rated by the red-clad supporters, but this chap looks The Bid’ness.

by whiffofcordite on October 7, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Ian Keatley, Ian Madigan, Leinster, Munster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 7, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/10/07/bump-in-the-road/

Season Proper

As has become habitual, Munster vs. Leinster has been scheduled in the pre-Heineken Cup slot, in what has come to mark the start of the ‘season proper’.  The first few weeks of the season see a gradual cranking up of the intensity as international players are slowly re-absorbed into their teams.  Or in the case of Mike Ross, thrown straight in from the off, for some reason … after a long summer off gruelling tour of North America. Maybe he needed to prove his fitness.

One difference this time is that the fixture takes place in the red bit of the country, which gives Munster a slight advantage, but one that generally means little in this most hotly contested of derbies.  The other big change is that neither of the ‘leading men’ in this drama, who came to embody everything about the great modern rivalry, will be on the pitch or even in the neighbourhood this time.  The two titans of this fixture, who so often decided it, now besties, will presumably be settling down to watch it together in Paris over foie gras terrine and a good bottle of Sancerre.

Having halted Leinster’s five-in-a-row and seemingly got the monkey off their backs a couple of years ago, Munster once again find themselves on a damaging losing streak in this fixture, losing four on the bounce.  After performing badly in the Pro12 last season, this would be as good a time as any for a morale-boosting win that would also send out a message that they mean business in the league this year.  Both teams have endured a patchy enough start to the season, though Munster have largely taken advantage of a soft batch of opening fixtures to put themselves third in the table, but neither side has ever been particularly well known for great September form.  The real thing starts here.

Team selection will be interesting for both sides, with a number of positions being keenly contested.  Munster’s baby front row of James Cronin, Damien Varley and John Ryan scrummaged impressively against the Dragons, though Leinster will represent a far stiffer test.  David Kilcoyne will most likely start at loosehead, but the other two could hold their places.  Varley or Sherry is a classic ‘set piece or loose play’ debate.  Sherry is the best thrower in the country, but Varley is a punchy carrier and his ability to jackal over the ball at the breakdown is matched by few.

At lock, Paul O’Connell has made his return, which is great news for everybody except Dave Kearney his next opponents.  Despite his injury proneness in this late stage of his career, he has a knack not so much for hitting the ground running as exploding on impact.  Donnacha Ryan will probably partner him.  After a stellar 2012, Ryan struggled has struggled this calendar year, and has looked to be playing hurt since the Six Nations.  Has some summer R&R revived his spirits? We hope so – apart from anything else, with Stakhanov surely moving out to the international second row pasture with Brad Thorn, Bakkies, Biiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig Bob Casey and Ed O’Donoghue, it’s now NWJMB nipping at Ryan’s heels and competition for places in green can only be a good thing. Right Eddie?

The backrow looks hard to call.  Tommy O’Donnell is injured and Peter O’Mahony will start.  Beyond that there’s not much to choose from between CJ Stander, James Coughlan, Niall Ronan, Sean Dougall and Paddy Butler. They provide plenty of options and a good deal of depth, but there’s a shortage of out and out class.  Stander remains an enigma; he could be the new Tom Croft or the new Clinton Huppert.  We’re still waiting for the O’Mahony-at-8 bandwagon to get rolling, but it probably needs Tommy O’Donnell back fit before it can start.  Surely it’s the best position for his rangy wide-channel running and superb ball skills?  Anyway, for Saturday: O’Mahony, Stander, Coughlan, maybe?

Half-back is no different.  Much depends on whether Conor Murray is passed fit; if not, it leaves a choice between the unproven Cathal Sheridan and the proven-to-be-awful Duncan Williams. Selection at 10 is fascinating.  ROG, and RTE’s beloved ROG-cam, have departed, so it’s a straight choice between Ian Keatley and JJ Hanrahan.  Those with a penchant for romance and excitement – i.e. most of us – want to see Hanrahan picked, but is he ready?  He’s looked good so far, but the opposition have been easy meat.  If he can pilot Munster to a win over Leinster then it’s his time.  But Penney will probably, on balance, go for Ian Keatley.  Either way, what intrigue awaits!  ‘Get RADGE on!’

The back-line is equally hard to call.  James Downey or Ivan Dineen, or even Hanrahan at 12?  Zebo at 11 is certain, but where to put Earls?  Centre, or on the other wing, which would bring Casey Laulala into the equation.  We haven’t joined the queue to write Earls off as a centre yet, despite his struggles last season.  He has plenty to offer there and can still improve.  Conway or Hurley at full-back?  Our guess is Zebo-Downey-Laulala-Earls-Conway, but we wouldn’t be betting the house on it.

No such certainty for the blue half either.  In the front row Cian Healy starts.  Sean Cronin continues to be the most frustrating player in the country – he can run lines like a centre, but his basics remain questionable – so Strauss probably plays.  Mike Ross has looked worryingly uncomfortable with the new scrum calls, and Marty Moore’s reputation is on the up, but it would be a shock to see Ross relegated to the bench this early in the season.

In the second row, Devin Toner has been – whisper it – one of Leinster’s best players so far and the contest between he and O’Connell at restarts will be one of the key battlegrounds of the match.  Mike McCarthy will add the grunt alongside him, just holding off the improving Quinn Roux.

Backrow is as hard to call as Munster’s.  Jamie Heaslip will start, but whether Sean O’Brien is thrown in from the off or held in reserve probably depends on what his coaches reckon he’s ready for.  Jordi Murphy has been the season’s revelation but he appears to be having surgery today so he won’t be involved – a cruel blow after such an auspicious start to the campaign.  Kevin McLoughlin will presumably have some sort of role to play.  The Gonzaga man had a quiet campaign last year but surely fancies his chances of greater international recognition if he can hit his straps this year, so he has every incentive to get motoring quickly.  Rhys Ruddock will push him hard though.  McLoughlin-O’Brien-Heaslip was gernerally Schmidt’spreferred backrow, and O’Connor may well see it as his starting point.

Isaac Boss will start at 9, where Eoin Reddan has yet to really get going, and he’ll probably be partnered by Ian Madigan, who impressed on his return to fly-half on Friday night.  Jimmy Gopperth has had a great start in Leinster colours, but Madigan’s distribution, line-breaking threat and Joe Schmidt pulling rank eligibility for Ireland should swing things in his favour for the crunch games.

The backline looks predictable enough, if D’arcy is fit: he, O’Driscoll, the Brothers Kearndashian and The Kildare Lewis Moody appear likely to form an all-Irish back division.  But if Dorce can’t make it a bit of a re-shuffle will be needed.  Already thin on numbers, and with Luke Fitzgerald still apparently injured and Lote Tuqiri also doubtful, someone like Darragh Fanning could be pressed into action in the biggest game of their career.

These games are rarely the most tactically sophisticated affairs, though last year’s match in the Palindrome was the most open in years, with both sides keen to use the full width of the pitch.  Those with short memories may have forgotten that Keith Earls was superb at outside centre on the night and looked set for a great season in the role.  But more often than not these are attritional ties, and whoever wins the physical contest usually comes away with the win.  Some of the white heat that built up in the aftermath of the Great Changing of the Guard in 2009 seemed to have disappeared from the match-up in the last couple of years but last spring’s … erm, thing, where something happened to someone’s boot or head or something … we can’t remember .. anyway, it certainly sparked the furnace back into full glow.  Let’s hope for a good clean fight.

One other thing to note is that Roman Poite is apparently refereeing.  He has plenty of ‘previous’ with both teams, and has become something of a bête noir for Munster fans in particular.  Certainly his refereeing of the scrum will be important.  Should Munster attempt a repeat of the ridiculous antics of the corresponding fixture two seasons ago when Marcus Horan was allowed to play silly buggers all night, they can expect Bad Romain to come out and penalise them to within an inch of their lives.  Leinster probably look marginally stronger on paper and should shade a tight match.  To the winner the spoils, and the bragging rights, until March anyway.

by whiffofcordite on October 2, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Leinster, Munster

Posted by whiffofcordite on October 2, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/10/02/season-proper/

Numbers Game

Leinster this week (sort of) announced the signing of Lote Tuqiri, the Fijian-born Australian sometime superstar, who at 33, would appear to have his best days behind him. It’s not the sort of signing Leinster fans are used to seeing pitch up at the RDS, but being a three-month deal with a view to shoring up the wide positions until Zane Kirchner finishes up with South Africa, it probably makes sense. This is not the time to be recruiting, so pickings are slim.

Since Eoin O’Malley’s hugely unfortunate retirement was announced, sheer lack of numbers of the nippy lads looks like being Leinster’s biggest obstacle to success this season, especially since the fans have become used to the team fighting on two fronts.

It’s the strength of those one or two rungs down the depth chart that determine the chances of a team getting a home semi-final in the Pro12, and it’s in that area that Leinster have trumped all-comers over the past few seasons, with the likes of Ian Madigan, Heinke van der Merwe and Fergus McFadden spearheading an international-class first line of reserves capable of racking up multiple wins at home and on the road against middling opponents.

A quick look at the comings and goings in the Leinster back-line shows a worrying net loss in terms of talent and numbers.

Out

Jonny Sexton – needs no introduction as the unchallenged starter of all three Lions tests in a winning series. Arguably the best player in the side over the last four years.

Isa Nacewa – announced retirement and desire to return to New Zealand with family. Stalwart full-back and winger, whose experience and ability to guide those around him made him a crucial player in Pro12 ‘midweek’ games as well as being a key man on the big occasion.

Andrew Conway – curious decision to leave for Munster has yet to be fully explained, but indications are he left in a bit of a strop. Talent started to bloom late last season, and he most certainly would have been afforded multiple opportunities in blue had he stayed on this year.

Fionn Carr – never got to grips with Leinster’s attacking style or improved defensive shortcomings, but always had the potential to do something when the mood struck him.

Eoin O’Malley – prematurely retired due to knee injury. Classic footballing outside centre and natural successor to the great one, but we’ll never get to see how good he might have become.

In

Jimmy Gopperth – dependable place-kicker with Newcastle Falcons for many seasons. An experienced player who knows his way around the game, ideal foil for Madigan. Debut in Llanelli has raised expectations.

Zane Kirchner – South African full-back, currently starting in their national team and among try-scorers at the weekend. Will not make it to Leinster until Rugby Championship is out of the way.

Five out, two in, one of whom arrives mid-season. Little wonder they’ve signed Tuqiri for three months. One Lion, one world class utiltity man and two youngsters who would expect to have gone on to represent their country, along with one unfulfilled talent have headed for the out door. So where does it leave Leinster? Looking at the best possible backline they can put out, their Heineken Cup team if you will, it probably goes a bit like this (but really, does anyone get to put out their best 9-15 without injury these days?)

9 Eoin Reddan / Isaac Boss – expect to see O’Connor continue with a horses-for-courses approach to his two scrum-halves. Both have another year on the clock, however, and are now 32 and 33 respectively. Reddan’s game relies on speed to the ruck and if he lost his speed he would be severely diminished, as he is not a great strategist or game manager.

10 Ian Madigan – huge pressure on the young man’s shoulders. More Contepomi than Sexton, his talent is super-abundant but he’ll hit his share of bumps in the road.

11 Luke Fitzgerald – there is so much goodwill towards the luckless Blackrock man that you almost feel anguish every time he takes the field. Long overdue a run of injury-free good form.

12 Gordon D’arcy – has been under pressure in recent seasons, but was rejuvenated for his province last term, and looks in good nick for another solid campaign

13 Brian O’Driscoll – will continue to be first choice as Leinster look to milk every last bit of his final season. Prepare to see grown men weeping at his last match.

14 Fergus McFadden – the utility man asked to be considered in one position last season, but who knows if O’Connor will continue to see it that way? Still, it looks as if he will be required at 14.

15 Rob Kearney – struggled in an injury-blighted campaign last year but is surely too good a player not to return to something like his best this season, fitness permitting.

It’s an all-Irish backline, but crucially, an all international backline, which means they’ll spend plenty of time in camp with Joe Schmidt and the next wave will be needed to make in the region of 14-16 starts in the Pro12. The hope would have been that this next wave was Gopperth, Conway, Goodman, O’Malley and Dave Kearney with Nacewa in tow, but instead it’s Gopperth, Darren Hudson, Andrew Goodman, Brendan Macken, Dave Kearney and Kirchner/Tuqiri.
Goodman, Gopperth and Kirchner are experienced players, and both management and supporters will have a good idea what will be required of them. Gopperth has to kick a multitude of points, Goodman has to break the gain-line and Kirchner has to bring the best parts of his game, and leave the rest in South Africa. By our count that leaves three players who will be relied upon to contribute much more than they have in a season to date.

1. Dave Kearney – last season was interrupted by injury, but the year before he played very well and was named on the bench for the Six Nations opener against Wales. The player he got the nod ahead of that day was Simon Zebo, who has since been on a Lions tour, so there is ground to make up. This year Dave Kearney will be expected to push very hard for selection in the Heineken Cup team. Kearney’s strength is his elusive running, but he needs to improve his tackling and try-count, which runs at 12 in 53 appearances. Started 10 Pro 12 matches last season, but will be expected to produce something more like 2011-12 when he made 18 starts, but most importantly, he will be required to become a fixture of the Heineken Cup matchday squad.

2. Brendan Macken – Something of a frustration in his time so far for Leinster, where he remains better known for his (admittedly pretty good) Ryle Nugent impression rather than his contribution on-pitch. O’Malley’s injury has pushed him up the rankings, and it must be hoped that he can improve his aggression in defence and somehow inherit some of O’Malley’s game-awareness. He started 10 games in last season’s Pro12 and will be expected to imrove on that by 50% this year, and with greater distinction. Friday night represented an encouraging start.

3. Darren Hudson – the Mary’s wing has featured just nine times for Leinster and turned 23 in June, but looks set for a prominent role this year. Came off the bench on Friday night to score his first try in blue, and he can expect to be called upon in around a dozen games this year. It remains to be seen how good he is at this level, but he is strong and quick.

If those three lads can make the impact required of them, Leinster will be some way towards having the required mettle to be competitive on both fronts this season. It’s almost certainly a regret that Niall Morris, 40 appearances and counting for Leicester, was allowed to leave, and it’s still hard to understand how Conway ended up moving to Munster.  Leinster will hope that they don’t experience a run of injuries akin to last season, because if they do they’re goosed.  If they can ride their luck ont hat front, they should cope this season.  Next year, when Brian O’Driscoll and almost certainly Leo Cullen will not be around, is an entirely different matter, but is a fence O’Connor will soon have to have to start thinking about how to get over.

by whiffofcordite on September 11, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Leinster

Posted by whiffofcordite on September 11, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/09/11/numbers-game/

« Older Posts
Newer Posts »