Future Now

So in the longer term, the day of Ireland’s first test win on Argentinian soil will probably be remembered less than Humph leaving Ulster for Gloucester (!) – we’ll get back to that later this week. The game, if it was memorable for anything, will be remembered as 1 CE, the first of the post-BOD era. Given we’re already on RWC15 countdown, its damn important we get someone comfortable in the jersey pronto.

First up was Darren Cave. How did he do? Fine actually – the defensive system looked good, he did the simple things well (except that Rivelino-style banana kick), he brought those around him into play, he threatened the line and he didn’t look out of place in the shirt. There is no point judging him by O’Driscoll standards, or even by Manu or Smuddy standards, as some seem so keen to do – he’s clearly not at that level. What he is is competent and solid – and that’s what he showed. Cave himself doesn’t seem to expect to last beyond this tour in the shirt, but, right now, he’s the best option there – Henshaw is injured and has little experience, Luke Roysh has that worrying perma-injury thing going on that often precedes retirement, the Kildare Lewis Moody hasn’t started a game of note at 13 in years and Jared Payne is both still Kiwi and a rare starter at 13. Keith Earls is the likeliest possible challenger, if he starts there for Munster next year. Time, perhaps, to start dialing down our expectations, begin appreciating what Cave can do, rather that point out who he isn’t.

One of the other winners was Robbie Diack, who, one awful piece of butchery aside, had a good day at the office, and certainly outshone Jordi Murphy – that is significant, as, the 2007 Blindside Army aside, Ireland have taken 5 backrow forwards to the last few tournaments. You would think Heaslip, POM, SOB and Chris Henry are inked in, which leaves 1, and 2 at most, places left. Murphy and Diack are battling it out with Rhys Ruddock for those slots (save for a bolter) – and, given Murphy might struggle for starts in big games next season, Diack might have stolen a march on him.

Aside from that – Simon Zebo looked eager but occasionally naive, Iain Henderson to the manor born, Mike Ross flogged and Johnny Sexton imperious – what’s new. While its great to see Zebo back, other wingers were more prominent – Andy Trimble looked (unsurprisingly) better versed in what Schmidt wingers do, and Miguel Montero simply looked monstrous – Zebo has more work to do to get himself in the RWC15 frame. Hendy was so awesome that Big Dev, possibly Ireland’s find of the season, might find himself back on the bench – his soft hands to set Jack McGrath piling into some Puma forwards at high velocity were gorgeous. The future has arrived.

The jury is split between whether we’ll see wholesale changes or a similar lineup, but assuredly the Milky Bar Kid won’t be impressed with the error count – too many missed tackles and a bit passive at times – end of season mental fatigue maybe. Ho hum, and maybe we’re just trying to read a little too much into these games at the fag end of a wondrous season.

Stuart Hogg to Ulster?

The news that Stuart Hogg will play no part in the biggest game in the Glasgae’s franchise’s (ugh) history is surprising, to say the least – he’s one of the few bona fide world class players in Scotland, and should be a key man for the team.  Dress this weekend’s match up any way you like, but Leinster, for all their attacking lumpen-ness, have an excellent pack and a brilliant defensive system – and they keep winning. If Glasgae are to win, they’ll need everything going, yet they have elected to pick Peter Murchie at 15. Amid the fog and intrigue, one thing is obvious – Stuart Hogg has burned every bridge going at Glasgow.

When asked about it, Bob Kearney said:

“I don’t know him too well, great player, seems like a good lad, but there is something going on there behind the scenes. There is a reason for it and I suppose you lads will find out sooner or later.”

Cryptic, and not exactly satisfactory. Tell us more, Bob!  All kinds of rumours are flying around and that doesn’t help – it would be easy to play a dead bat, but he chose not to – what does it all mean? And not knowing him too well? They toured together for the Lions and play the same position (caveated by Hogg’s outhalf cameos in Oz) – you’d think they would know each other well enough – is there distancing there?  Are we trying to read too much into things?  What the hell is going on?!

Ulster are now being linked with a move for Hogg, and, on the field anyway, it would be a reasonable fit for them. The culture shock will be non-existent; Glasgow, Belfast, it’s the same thing, right? And sure, Ulster are stacked outside, but you can never have too many world-class players, and he would be just the type of player that might help them unlock organised defensive systems – their key weakness. Their red zone strike rate was woeful in key games this year, and Hogg might have made the difference versus Globo Gym and Leinster. There’s no substitute for all out gas and Hogg has that matched with no little skill.  He’s a potentially explosive addition.

Hogg’s arrival might put the noses of Craig Gilroy and Darren Cave out of joint a little, but maybe that can be filed under ‘good problems to have’ rather than something to be overly concerned about.  In the era of 20% injury rates, chances are they won’t miss out on too much top grade rugby in any case.  Although it may be worth asking if wee Hoggy can scrum down at tighthead, because that’s where Ulster’s biggest worries are liekly to occur next season.

Question really is this: given Humph’s experience of Ulster’s player factional implosion after 2006, does he want to bring in a guy, who at 21 has managed to alienate his coaching staff so much they would rather not pick him than maximise their chances of winning in the Oar Dee Esh? And for the IRFU, do they really want to pay to train one of their direct opponents’ best players? There’s no real precedent for this sort of signing, unless you count Simon Danielli, which of course we don’t.  Something we aren’t clear on is whether Hogg an NIQ or not – by definition, yes, but he’s more like a Kolpak player in cricket, and Ulster might reasonably think it shouldn’t impact their ability to sign “real” NIQs i.e. those from the Southern Hemisphere.  Even if he does count, because of his calibre, it’s hardly a waste of an NIQ spot.

Hogg is a gem of a player who Ulster would be very fortunate to fall into their hands, but that isn’t the really pertinent question, which relates to his availability and omission from the Warriors side.  Presumably The Humph is on the case.

El Summer Tour Contra Los Pumas

Joe Schmidt has named his 30-man panel for the two-game series in Argentina – and it’s not in nice places like Buenos Aires and Mendoza, but swampy, tropical Resistencia and rural Tucuman, where Besty might feel at home. Sling another cow on the giant open barbie there, ranch hand!  The wine will be great, sure, but the nightlife might not cut it. We discussed the topic last week, and mooted that the most important bits of business are beginning the process of replacing O’Driscoll and winning the series.

It’s been a long old season and a good few bodies are deemed too tired or injured for the trip. In the past, the mantra from Irish coaches has been ‘these are the games the players are rested for’, but for the likes of Cian Healy, Tommy Bowe and Sean O’Brien, it’s been decided that they’d be better off recovering from whatever niggles they’re carrying. It must have been tempting to bring O’Brien and Bowe, who have relatively little rugby this season and could be reasonably fresh as a result, but discretion is often the better part of valour, and they’ll have the summer off to come back with renewed vigour for next season. There are bigger fish to fry.

Hookers: Rory Best, Damien Varley and Rob Herring

Herring is the beneficiary of a lengthy injury list, with Cronin, Sherry and O’Strauss all injured and he has deputized well for Besty. Best himself has only just returned to fitness, but given the lack of first-rate alternatives, it seems logical to pick him.

Props: Mike Ross, Marty Moore, James Cronin, Dave Kilcoyne and Jack McGrath

With Healy being given a free pass for the summer, James Cronin gets to travel. He hasn’t quite shot the lights out since his eye-catching cameo against Leinster last autumn, but there’s no rush and he seems to be made of the right stuff. He’s picked to get exposure to the test squad. Most likely he’ll be holding tackle bags, with McGrath the likely starter and Kilcoyne first reserve. It’s become a position of remarkable depth in the last season. On the tighthead side, Moore is likely to get his first start in a green shirt. Mike Ross tours again – we were incredulous he was brought to the US and Canada last year, although this makes more sense – you don’t want to be relying on Stephen Archer against top rate opposition.

Locks: Iain Henderson, Paul O’Connell and Devin Toner

Ireland look a bit light with just three. Presumably Robbie Diack and Rhys Ruddock are providing cover should it be needed. With Donnacha Ryan injured and Dan Tuohy operating at less than 100% options are thin on the ground, although Mike McCarthy might have been one, though his star has waned. The players named are uniformly excellent. Henderson had his best game of the season against Leinster, and just as Devin Toner looked to be running out of puff, he had a fine performance in the same game. O’Connell is captain. It will be interesting to see if Henderson gets a chance to mix it with Patricio Albacete and co.

Backrow: Lots of players NOT FROM MUNSTER

Back in the Six Nations we had the Great Tommy O’Donnell Outrage. But Schmidt was proved entirely correct in his selection of Murphy over O’Donnell. O’Donnell’s form has been nowhere near his 2012-13 level and he has subsequently found himself dropped by Munster, failing to even make the bench in ther last game. Never mind, let’s move on to Sean Dougall Outrage. With O’Brien not selected and O’Mahony injured, Rhys Ruddock is liable to get a first start for Ireland, and the uncapped Robbie Diack may feature at some point, though Jordi Murphy appears to be the most versatile man for the bench. Mr Indestructible, Jamie Heaslip, will almost certainly be relied upon for another 160 minutes of high-grade rugby, and Chris Henry will also ensure some degree of continuity. Diack is probably the most POM-for-POM replacement, but you wouldn’t think he’s at this level. The bigger question is how you re-integrate Sean O’Brien (presumably in November) – someone has got to miss out. Fez is injured again, and surely won’t wear green again – sniff.

Half Backs: Conor Murray, Eoin Reddan, Kieran Marmion, Jonny Sexton and Paddy Jackson

No surprise that Jonny Sexton is picked, especially with O’Driscoll and Dorce missing. He presumably assumes the role of backline leader.  As usual, Ian Madigan’s inclusion/exclusion [delete as appropriate] becomes a talking point. He’s back on everyone’s radar after Saturday’s stunning match-swinging performance, but those whose memories extend back to before then may remember that his form has been in the doldrums since the Six Nations. Paddy Jackson has yet to have that match-dominating performance that elevates him to the level occupied by Sexton and O’Gara before him – the new Toby Flood anyone? – but he has had a solid season (to be fair to Jackson, with Pienaar inside, he’s unlikely to have the opportunity any time soon either). Kieran Marmion’s selection is welcome – Reddan will slow down at some point – like Cronin he is no doubt bought along to learn as much as possible from his seniors.

Centres: Luke Marshall, Darren Cave, Robbie Henshaw

The great one retires and 97-year old Gordon D’arcy gets to put his feet up. It’s a great chance for Luke Marshall to get the jump on him. McFadden presumably provides cover. At outside centre, the new era begins, and whichever centre gets selected to start is probably worth persevering with for both games to give them the best possible chance of settling in. No pressure Mr. New 13, you’ve only got to replace the best player in the world, like, evah! Angry Darren Cave feels like the sensible option to us, but if Anscombe is shuffling him around, it becomes a little muddier – no point in investing gametime in a player who might not start there for his province.

Back three: Keith Earls, Simon Zebo, Andrew Trimble, Fergus McFadden, Rob Kearney, Felix Jones

He’s back! The red corner will breathe a sigh of relief that Simon Zebo has returned to the squad. Joe Schmidt needed little prompting to remind the Munster flyer that he has things to work on, but since the Six Nations it’s been hard to fault his attitude. He used the media not to whine about his lot, but to let the public know he was going to work as hard as he could, and to these eyes anyway, appeared to show great desire on the pitch. Notable contributions included a brilliant try-saving tackle against Toulon that kept Munster in the match, and his restart-chase against Toulon resulted in him scoring a try a few phases later.  Surely the very details that Schmidt was looking for him to improve upon?  Ireland are crying out for a bit of stardust in the backline, so hopefully he will get his chance. Keith Earls is back from injury and has looked dangerous without quite cutting loose in recent weeks; the rest pick themselves with Dave Kearney now injured and Tommy Bowe given the summer to rest.

Team to start the first test, maybe, possibly, dependant on all players getting through the Pro12 final, not getting injured in training and not missing the flight: Kearney, Trimble, Cave, Marshall, Earls, Sexton, Murray, McGrath, Best, Moore, O’Connell, Toner, Ruddock, Henry, Heaslip. A nice blend of the established and the younger. NWJMB would be a brave selection alongside POC – he will likely scrum down at tighthead lock when Muller moves on, so it’s the future .. if Toner ever stops improving.

The Big Name Signing

Irish provinces won’t be signing any more big name foreign players any more. Oh, hang on, they will. Or something. Who knows?

Just when it appeared that the day of the big-name NIE signing had ground to a halt, it appears that Kane Douglas’ imminent arrival to Leinster is all but confirmed and Connacht have signed, of all people, Mils Muliaina! If that signing has a look of the last of the summer wine about it (but is nonetheless thrilling), perhaps the even more ambitious coup is the capture of 24-year old Bundee Aki from Waikato Chiefs. Word on the ground is Munster and Leinster were both sniffing around him, but he chose Connacht. Go Connacht! Pat Lam’s ability to sell the province’s less than tangible qualitites to top players on the other side of the globe borders on the miraculous.

First, though, to Kane Douglas, whose signing is a timely boost to Leinster. He has international pedigree, with 14 caps for the Aussies. He played in the tests against the Lions, but despite this, he may not be completely terrible.

At 123kg and over 200cm, he and Devin Toner will form an imposing, sizeable second row partnership for Leinster next year. And at 24 years old, he’s at a terrific age profile to do well. Leinster have caught him on the way up. It’s the first recruitment since Brad Thorn that will be greeted with a sense of excitement. Leinster’s work in the transfer market has been spotty of late. Jimmy Gopperth has been solid and Zane Kirchner is beginning to spark into life, but the arrival of Mike McCarthy has been underwhelming and as for the likes of Andrew “Brad” Goodman, Michael Bent and Quinn Roux – ho hum.

Douglas rather finishes the picture for Leinster’s pack for next season. McCarthy will provide back-up and Tom Denton brings further depth, while the front and back rows are in good health, with no shortage of competition for places. The supposed reserve front row of McGrath, Cronin and Moore have all had very impressive campaigns and provide a level of impact off the bench that is comparable with even the top French sides.

It’s a different story in the backline, where Leinster have been singularly awful all year. It’s the one real bugbear of the Matt O’Connor era so far, and is trying the patience of fans who have become used to dining out on a diet of high-tempo Schmidtball. There are a few issues to be resolved. Both Reddan and Boss have signed on for next season, and while Reddan has enjoyed one of his best ever seasons, Boss’ form has been patchy indeed. Perhaps it’s time for one of the younger scrum halves on the books – Luke McGrath is the most likely – to start getting more exposure.

Luke Fitzgerald is another concern. He has looked electrifying on the pitch this year, but his injury situation is no better than it’s ever been; seemingly in a state of permanent limbo, going from week to week with a nagging abdomenal complaint, neither ruled out of or in the team until minutes before each game.

But all of these pale in comparison to the two chief bits of business that O’Connor and Leinster must take care of; finding a second-centre from somewhere, and ensuring Jonny Sexton’s return to Leinster in a year’s time. The first problem appears to be a case of identifying another starry name from down under, but those are few and far between, especially in a World Cup year. Look at Munster, who have just signed a journeyman Aussie nobody had ever heard of, and their need is no different to Leinster’s. Answers on a postcard.  There are in-house contenders, namely Fergus McFadden and Luke Fitzgerald, but neither convinces for differing reasons.  The Jared Payne and Robbie Henshaw kite-flying episodes appear to have been fanciful terrace-talk.

Equally paramount is the situation at fly-half.  Sexton knew that Racing’s first season would be a slog, and the first half was dire, but he must be happier now – they showed signs of improvement over the second half of the season and have at least qualified for Le Barrage, even if an away draw is tantamount to not qualifying at all. And the IRFU must surely now see that they dropped the ball badly. To think that a year ago we were having to defend our opinion that this might not be the best outcome for both Ireland and Leinster.  For all the potential of Madigan, there’s no substitute for game-breaking world-class, and you don’t lose a player of Sexton’s regal stature and expect not to pay for it.  The IRFU must do their utmost to bring him back.

One good bit of news is that Sean O’Brien is back in training, and his return to the team next season will make a huge difference; to the pack, to the backline, to everything. He’s among the best backrows in world rugby and his skillset is irreplaceable. Given his twin armoury of exceptional skill at the breakdown and ability to carry over the gainline and provide front-foot ball for his half-backs, he is capable of cancelling out the deficiencies in both the pack and the backline.  O’Connor needs him.  Badly.

P.S. Please, please, please let’s not make the comments box a referendum on Ian Madigan at 10 – he may be discussed in the context of centre, but the Madigan vs. O’Connor/Jackson/Hanrahan/Keatley debate has been done to death below previous posts over the last month.

Swapsies

Up in Ravers, the winds of change are in the air – Phase One of Project Humph feels like it is coming to a close. In 2010, Ulster signed Johann Muller, Pedrie Wannenbosh and Ruan Pienaar to take a young and unsuccessful team and drag them up by the collar to be competitive in Europe and ultimately scoop up some silverware. BJ Botha was already there, but he was replaced by (the cheaper) John Afoa a year later when he decided he needed some more passion in his life. The coach was the homegrown Brian McLaughlin but the power behind the throne was the local hero Humph, who had seen the Celtic League-winning team of 2006 spectacularly implode after he retired.

The imposition of some Bok beef has done the trick – Ulster are now a bona fide European power, and the careful husbandry of an excellent generation has yielded internationals NWJMB, Wee PJ, Bamm-Bamm and Craig Gilroy; has given new life to the likes of Besty, Chris Henry and Andrew Trimble and has enticed Tommy Bowe and Roger Wilson to re-join the revolution. McLaughlin was replaced by Mark Anscombe, who in turn appears to have the Sword of Damocles (Thornley101) hanging over him as regards the 2015/16 season, when Neil Doak is available at short odds to be promoted.

However, as of next season, only Pienaar of the big-name foreign brigade will remain – something that will definitely come as a surprise to the casual reader of the Indo, who may be under the impression that Ulster are not only wholly reliant on the foreign contingent, but are the only team to have ever played non-Irish players. Wannenbosh joined Castres the year before last, Muller is going to retire to the ostrich farm (or whatever) and, while acknowledging his unhappiness in Belfast, John Afoa is moving a very small bit closer to New Zealand – Gloucester. Pienaar himself turned down megabucks from Toulon to stay, clearly rating the quality of the Bibles in Belfast more like South Africa than the weather on the Riviera.

Ulster, again not to shock our readers, also have Irish players – and some of them are leaving too: Tom Court is taking his blame lightning rod and pitching up in Samoa London Reading to play with London Samoa Irish Oirish; young guns Niall Annett, Chris Farrell and Adam Macklin are departing for new challenges at Worcester, Grenoble and Rotherham respectively; Paddy McAllister is joining Jeremy Davidson at Aurillac to re-kindle his career; and Average Joes Sean Doyle and James McKinney are off as well.

Ulster’s recruitment to replace these departing names, including no less than four props, has been rather underwhelming, to say the least. Indeed, on hearing the names of the players signed, the most likely reaction for even the most knowledgable of rugby fans is to ask ‘who the heck are these guys?’  Some of the glass-half-full merchants are comvinced that losing a disinterested Afoa and the underrated Court are actually positives, the hope being that Ulster can develop younger (and better) options – but that’s patently not the case. The pack at present looks woefully undermanned and short of beef for challenging on two fronts next year – and we are getting increasingly concerned. Here’s a quick run-through by position:

  • Loose-head prop: replacing Tom Court was never going to be easy – just as he was the easiest man for any Irish coach to ditch, the under-appreciation of our favourite unsung hero continues. Ulster are replacing the 32-times capped Irish international with Ruadhri Murphy from the Brumbies, who has yet to get past the “promising” stage.  Murphy has slipped down the pecking order in Canberra and his previously-stated dream of being shunted all around Eden Park as a Wallaby are now on ice as he looks to fight it out with Callum Black for the Ulster 1 jersey. It’s positive to see a young Irish prop with some potential come on board, but he is 26 now and this will be his 4th club in eight seasons, and he has yet to impress a coaching team enough to make him a key player. It all sounds a bit John Andress-ish.  It seems like Black will start initially.
  • Tight-head prop: continuing in the proud tradition laid down by Botha and Afoa will be .. Dave Ryan, Zebre 3rd choice, and Wiehahn Herbst, who has a rather better dedigree, with 37 Sharks caps in 5 seasons. No South African prop is likely to be anything but technically excellent, but it goes without saying that if he was all that, he’d be going nowhere. Potential for sure, but a serious step down on the previous two incumbents. Because, given Deccie Fitz’ latest health news, it looks like incumbency is where Herbst will be at. He is likely to be Ulster’s new project player when Jared Payne has served his time, so he is here for the medium term. The case of Dave Ryan seems simply a matter of bringing an Irish player home – if Ulster are looking for him to play HEC rugby next year, they’re in trouble.
  • Second row/flank: the retiring captain Muller is, on the face of it, being replaced by a somewhat like-for-like player – Franco van der Merwe of the Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiions Lions. But while Muller had 30 Springbok caps, van der Merwe has one – so it’s a step down, for sure, but it’s a different ask really. Replacing Muller’s first XV contribution will be put on the goals of one Iain Henderson – van der Merwe’s role is to take Henderson’s role as second row first reserve and occasional flanker and make it his own. It’s a pretty decent hire to be fair, for Ulster lack beefy forwards, and this is a pretty good one – he’s basically a bigger version of Robbie Diack
  • Half-back: steeping into James McKinney’s size 10s is the returning iHumph, who flounced out of Ravers after being dropped for the HEC semi-final against Embra (Embra! In the HEC semi-final!! With Michael Bradley as coach!!!) in 2012. Humphreys pitched up in Samoa London Reading for a couple of seasons, and he is a good signing. He’s nearing the twilight of his career, but Ulster need backup for Wee PJ for the international breaks, and Stuart Olding should be allowed to concentrate on centre (more of which anon). Humphreys might defend like a saloon door, but he’s better than McKinney.  Whatever his flaws, there’s some talent there and at Pro12 level he should be a valuable player.

This season, Ulster’s pack has at times looked in need of an injection of depth – the first team is excellent when everyone is there (Court, Best, Afoa, Muller, Tuohy, Fez, Henry, Wilson) but how often does that happen these days?  Fez is always injured and the backups, NWJMB aside, aren’t top class. Diack, Black and Herring have looked game, but Stevenson is a squad man at best, Williams just doesn’t cut it at the highest level, then there is … er … Mike McComish and Neil McComb. The changes they have made don’t change that, and indeed, Sean Doyle has yet to be replaced. The rumour mill is whirring that yet another Shark, this time Keegan Daniel, could be tempted to jump on board, and it’s sorely needed.

The Ulster squad looks pretty unbalanced for next season – light on numbers up front, but stacked behind. Ulster could play a backline of Pienaar, Jackson, Marshall, Cave, Bowe, Trimble and Payne and have the luxury of leaving at least one of Wallace (assuming he’s still knocking around somewhere) , Olding and Gilroy out of the match-day squad altogether. Admittedly, its not Toulon levels of depth, but this is Ireland. The promising youngsters Mike Allen and Ricky Andrew are capable deputies at Pro12 level, but the pack backups struggle to be that sometimes.

One very interesting rumour doing the rounds is Jared Payne to Leinster – Ulster fans have gone all Connacht on this one (“How DARE they steal our players”) but it might be something to consider if a high enough bounty can be extracted. Leinster would look at Payne as an outside centre, as Joe Schmidt is likely to do, given the dishy face of Bob glowering at high balls and the rather gaping hole at 13, post you-know-who retiring.

Payne is currently second choice at Ulster in that shirt, and it’s a position where Ulster have options , unlike in the Oar Dee Esh (or “Tomond” for that matter).   For Payne to take the 13 shirt he needs Gilroy to step into the 15 jersey and shift Cave – neither of which comes close to being warranted on this season’s evidence. We may have mild concerns over Payne’s defensive abilities in that key position, but given the desire of the Irish hierarchy is for him to be an outside centre and the needs of the other provinces, Ulster might not be able to get a higher trade-in for him again – and it might be time to cash in.

If Humph can use those legendary bargaining skills, and get a prop and some depth in the backrow, this might be something worth considering – let’s say Ulster managed to wrangle Jack McGrath and Dom Ryan out of D4, would that be so bad?

There are several factors at work here – a more pro-active Union with the appointment of David Nucifora, a pushy national coach who has political capital to burn, and something we have discussed before – the surfeit of props and backrows in Leinster versus centres in Ulster. Of course, all are contracted, but if everyone wants this to happen, it might just come to pass. If a nuclear-option trade like this is a win-win for both provinces, and a boon to the green shirt, why not?

Plus it would inject some life into the flagging Ulster (and Leinster – see Kirchner, Z.) recruitment process.

Selection Bias

The news that Joe Schmidt had to field questions about selection bias left us more than a little surprised.  The issue appears to have sprouted from ill-advised and certainly ill-timed comments from Denis Leamy in the lead-up to the France match.  The questions were dispatched consummately by Schmidt, who effectively put the accusations of provincialism back on those asking the questions.  Too right!

Certainly, Joe Schmidt picked a lot of players from Leinster over the championship, including some who aren’t consistently first choice for their province.  There is certainly an argument that he picked players he could trust to enact his gameplan, which may have given those familiar with his methods a head-start, but to say he picked based on the colour of the players’ provincial jerseys is a nonsense.

Besides, Ireland are champions, so the head coach’s decisions are vindicated, whether or not they were popular beforehand.  We ourselves made some negative noises around the selection for the Italy game, but after Ireland won handsomely we were put back in our box, and we acknowledged as such.  Same goes for Denis Leamy.  One has to ask what those asking the questions are looking for exactly.  Ireland have won precious few Six Nations championships, and while it would be nice to think we could win them with exactly equal allocations from each province, or by ‘rotating’ in up-and-coming players in a variety of positions to develop them for the World Cup, it’s almost certainly an impossibility.  Others have said that the margins of victory were so tight that the coach should still be criticised.  Again, it would be nice to have won more comfortably in Paris, but given how seldom we have done it, insisting we should dish out a hammering seems a bit unrealistic.  It’s pretty churlish stuff altogether.

There have been some protests that those defending Schmidt’s selections are the same as those who bemoaned Gatland’s Welsh bias on the Lions tour.  Maybe so, but they are totally missing the point. To them we say this: who really, besides the players, gives two hoots about whether the Lions won or lost?  We’d gladly sell you 20 Lions tour wins for one victorious Six Nations.  The most important thing about the Lions tour is the team selection and how many Irish get into it; the matches are mostly putrid and boring.  Anyone out there buy the commemroative DVD to re-live the glory of the 2-1 win over the worst Australia team in 30 years this Christmas?  Can anyone even remember anything from the first two tests, apart from some chap falling when taking a kick in the last minute?  Us neither.  So, sure, we raged against Gatland and are still bitter over his dropping of O’Driscoll, but that’s because it’s more important that O’Driscoll’s feelings aren’t hurt than the Lions winning the series.  For Ireland things are different; winning is the be all and end all.

The World Cup Starts Here…ish

With the 2014 Six Nations out of the way, the 2015 World Cup suddenly comes into distant view.  It’s not on tomorrow, we don’t need to have our 30 man squad pencilled in today, but the process of building towards this giant of a tournament begins now; or at least, it begins with a pretty-much optimal summer tour of two tests in Argentina. After that, it’s three tests in November (South Africa, Georgia and the Wobblies), then the Six Nations, then … er … that’s pretty much it. So that’s 10 tests between now and then, and 20% of them are in June (and, at the risk of underestimating Georgia 2007 style, that’s counting them as a full test). For those who will say “ah, but, what about our warm-up games?”, we say that its surely impossible that Joe Schmidt will still be looking to play some favourites into form a month before the tournament.  Those will be about battle-hardening the players.

This summer schedule is perfect because the games are hard but winnable.  By the summer, the Irish players are pretty fatigued and often injured, especially if the provinces end up fighting it out for silverware, which they usually do.  Anyone fancy two or even three games against a box-fresh New Zealand team?  Or muscling it out against the Springboks?  Us neither.  Argentina will be using these games as the springboard for their Rugby Championship, so they’ll mean business, but all said and done, they’re a decent team but no world-beaters.  Ireland can have justifiable hopes of winning the series as well as furthering the development of a handful of options with an eye on 2015.

Much has been made of Schmidt’s unchanging teamsheet over the course of the Six Nations.  He mentioned a target of starting over 20 players but in the end only started 18. He did play 28, which, when you include extra front rows and so forth means we are already getting pretty competitive in terms of the RWC15 squad.  We suspected a ‘loss of nerve’ in the lack of rotation before the Italy game, but such assumptions proved a mile off the mark.  And while the likes of Denis Leamy appear to have a bee in their bonnet over World Cup development, the truth is that a number of the next wave of players have seen their development furthered over the course of the championship and winning the Six Nations is the best development the players could possibly have got.

Both Marty Moore and Jack McGrath played in all five matches, and were entrusted with finishing the match in Paris, a huge responsibility. Tommy O’Donnell and Jordi Murphy both experienced test rugby, Iain Henderson started a test match and Sean Cronin was used as a valuable impact replacement, and not a reserve only to be brought on when a wing gets injured.  It feels about 100 years ago now, but Dan Tuohy made a belated impact at test level when given a start against Scotland.

Looking through the playing squad, there is only one player who will definitely not be going to the World Cup, and we all know who it is.  The search for O’Driscoll’s successor starts now and while none of the options are equal to the great man, nor do they have to be.  Remember, this is Schmidt’s Ireland where cohesion and attention to the minutiae are king.  Someone like Darren Cave or Fergus McFadden, apparently solid but unspectacular (remind you of perceptions of a certain Ulster wing currently revising opinions?), could excel under Schmidt’s tutelage.  Robbie Henshaw is seen as the coming man by many, and could well be the long term successor, but it’s not clear he’s ready just yet.  Jared Payne is the wild card, but he doesn’t qualify as Irish until the November series. Joe name-dropped Cave and Henshaw in his post-game France interview and maybe they will get one start each in Argentina.

Two other players should be strongly considering devoting themselves to playing outside centre: Luke Fitzgerald and Keith Earls. “Keith Earls, haven’t we been over that?”, you say.  Well, yes, it hasn’t always worked but those with working memories will remember that Earls has had more good days than bad at 13. Indeed, he played a whole Six Nations in the position in 2012 and had a good series in a bad team.  With Casey Laulala leaving Munster and no replacement signed, and with the wings hugely competitive at national level, Anthony Foley should be trying to persuade Earls to make a huge push to play outside centre full time.  Meanwhile, up the M7 (or the M9, depending on how you see it), BOD’s retirement leaves Leinster with as big a hole to fill as Ireland, and Luke Fitzgerald and Fergus McFadden are the two men most likely to do so.  Again, with such stiff competition for places on the wing, both should be persuadable to give it a go.

The age profile of the rest of the team looks good, and there is no need to panic and pick an inexperienced team which will lose to Argentina.  That said, options need to be developed at tighthead prop and inside centre, starting this summer.  Gordon D’arcy and Mike Ross should be in the World Cup party, but Ireland need to be ready for a scenario where they aren’t.  Ageing players’ levels can fall away quicker than you expect once they go over the hill.  Both were excellent this Six Nations, but in 18 months who knows?  The IRFU pleaded with John Hayes to stay on until the World Cup, only for his game to collapse in the twelve months before it and he ended up not even making the squad.  Better to plan for being without them and if we still have them, all the better.

Fortunately, options are available and the summer tour is the time to use them.  Marty Moore’s development has been rapid and he should start at least one match in the summer tour. It was a little frightening how Vincent Debaty, experienced but not a renowned scrummager, shunted him all around Le Stade, but he is a young man and will learn from the harrowing experience.  On the next rung is the vastly improved Stephen Archer, who should tour and get at least one runout off the bench.  At inside centre, a cloud hangs over Luke Marshall’s future due to his recent concussion; if he can overcome this issue, it is obvious that he should start at least one match in Argentina and he would be a short odds bet to be first choice for next year’s Six Nations.  If he doesn’t it leaves Ireland in a bit of a pickle, at least until his provincial team-mate Stuart Olding recovers from serious injury.  Olding looks the real deal, a natural footballer, but it will be next season before we get to see him again.

Schmidt will also have to decide if it makes sense to bring a possibly exhausted Johnny Sexton to Argentina.  In all likelihood, and judging on Schmidt’s recent coments, this will depend on Racing Metro’s involvement in the Top 14 playoffs.  Sexton has had a huge workload over the last 24 months and may be best off being allowed a proper recovery period, which would afford Schmidt the opportunity to see how Jackson and Madigan cope with the pressure of starting a hard away game.

The summer also looks a good opportunity to rehabilitate a few names who were absent from this Six Nations. Donnacha Ryan and Stephen Ferris are two forgotten men, but both are back from injury and if they can stay fit and recover their best form, they are among our best players.  Ferris would bring a ying to O’Mahony’s yang as they are almost the polar opposite of each other, in as much as two blindside flankers can be.  It would give Ireland serious options in the backrow, essential in a World Cup where the intensity scales up week after week.  Needless to say, Earls, Fitzgerald and Bowe are in the same camp and all three should be pretty fresh going into the summer tour, while others will be starting to fatigue.  And hopefully Simon Zebo can put his head down and get himself in the frame, because the rugby world is a brighter place when he’s playing.

Ireland are in a splendid position; starting the World Cup run-in as Six Nations champions, with renewed vigour and a sense of clarity.  It’s always better to adapt and change from a strong position rather than leaving it until it’s out of necessity, but such things are easier said than done.  In 2009, Kidney was in a similar place, but was a little too reticent to expand Ireland’s game and playing panel, and momentum was squandered; it was a game of catch up until the World Cup and he was lucky Mike Ross fell into his lap.  Wales, in this year’s Six Nations, have missed the same opportunity and now find themselves on the back foot.  There’s always a good reason to keep things as they are, but often a better one to change.

Unsung Heroes

How appropriate that the winning act in Ireland’s victorious Six Nations campaign was a turnover by Chris Henry and Devin Toner – previously unheralded guys who were given an opportunity by Joe Schmidt and swam at this level. Henry epitomises the new Ireland – where players sacrifice all for the team. Ireland won this championship because they were the best team – the Irish collective was built on the commitment to excellence of the new coaching ticket, and every player in the squad bought into it entirely.

It’s becoming hackneyed to talk of Ireland’s “unsung heroes” (how many times do you get sung before you can’t be unsung any more?) and this usually refers to the consistent excellence of the likes of Devin Toner, Chris Henry, Dave Kearney and Andrew Trimble. They are the contingent who Schmidt brought into the first team from the fringes of the squad, often ahead of more championed alternatives, and generated much heat for doing so. Let’s look at them:

  • Toner has found himself the target of derision and doubt many times in his career. Despite accumulating 100+ Leinster caps, his elevation to the XV was perceived to be Leinster-centrism from Joe Schmidt. Yet he was the surprise package of the November series and he looked of international standard. In recent years, he has improved year on year and this is no different. Yet, the perception was (and is) that if Ryan and McCarthy were fully fit, Toner would be nowhere near the XV, but he ends as one of Ireland’s players of the series. He has been a key man in adding grunt to a light pack, and will be hard to shift.
  • Henry – soldiering away at Ulster and one of the most influential players at HEC level for a few years now. Yet he is 29 and plays in a position where we are stacked. But Schmidt saw something he liked (at Leinster, where he devised his HEC2012 final gameplan around nullifying Henry’s influence) and he was in. He was the workhorse of the backrow trio, tackled himself to a standstill (we are too lazy to add up, but we expect him to be Ireland’s #1 tackler over the series). It’s easy to say he will make way for O’Brien and Ferris if and when they are back, but he has been one of Ireland’s players of the series, for his consistency, and was especially effective in the away games
  • Dave Kearney and, especially, Trimble – perceived as 5th and 6th best wingers at the start of the season (at best) – even now, most people would pick a fully fit Tommy Bowe over both, but they’ve done little wrong, and Trimble was Ireland’s best player in their win in Paris. Sure, Simon Zebo is more electric, no doubt about it, but read the below from Trimble in November, when he was outside the circle (H/T the Mole) – does this describe Simon Zebo? What about Luke Fitzgerald, Keith Earls or Tommy Bowe? Hard to know, but Andrew Trimble, after 50 caps, looks here to stay:
    “I’m more conscious now of the type of winger that Joe is looking for. He’s looking for someone who is accurate, who is physically dominant, who knows their role inside out and performs a lot of small areas of the game very, very well … He demands so much from his players. Joe isn’t overly concerned about a winger that breaks a gain-line and scores tries from halfway. He looks for a winger who does the simple stuff very well, presents the ball at ruck time accurately all the time, accuracy in kick-chase and reception. Every little thing. He has to do everything to make the team tick.”  

This is the new Ireland – the players are selected on their ability to execute the coach’s gameplan – and the team is paramount. No Ireland player was as explosive or as individually influential as Danny Care, Mike Brown or Joe Launchbury, but it isn’t those guys who are champions. Ireland had few noticable weaknesses, unlike the other championship contenders. England struggled any time their backup scrum-half was on the pitch, and would surely have won the Grand Slam had hand-flapping Lee ‘Rock Lobster’ Dickson not been introduced in Paris, and their 10-12 axis managed to create the grand total of one try in five games for two flying wingers. Wales had a weak collection of half-backs and an inflexible gameplan, and France a court jester of a coach, poor backups and a generally unfit pack.

Casting your mind back to how low Ireland had sunk this time 12 months ago is illuminating – beaten up in Rome, with a coach long since past his sell-by date and with a distinctly un-fortress-like fortress. The new ticket has brought a unified direction and purpose, a commitment to being the best, confidence, and a newly-loved team with an atmospheric home ground. Miracle worker? Well, it’s amazing what some strong leadership and a new direction will do – Ireland are a team that mirror their coach’s personality on the field.

Think about who was Ireland’s player of the championship, and there’s no obvious choice. Every player, from 1-23, contributed something. After two games, we’d have picked O’Mahony, but he had quiet games in Twickers and Le Stade and missed Italy. Henry? Certainly up there for consistency. Trimble? As important as anyone. O’Connell? Manic, and another brilliant leader, but quiet in Twickenham. Sexton? Got the Bernhardt Langers with him kicks in Paris, but scored four tries, and at crucial moments. BOD? Rolled back the years. But Jamie Heaslip would be our choice because he was among the top performers in all five games and had a huge all-round impact and influence (see Workrate  by Henry, C.) – but we wouldn’t argue with any of the above.  If anyone out there still doesn’t see what Healsip’s value to the team is, well, they’re not worth listening to.

That consistency and collective drive was the most impressive turnaround. Ireland have a quite magnificent coach, a squad of intelligent and skillful young men, and some big guns to come back. There is no reason why, with the RWC15 draw we have, we shouldn’t be putting ourselves up there with England as the main threat to BNZ and the Boks next autumn.  And while Ireland didn’t win a Grand Slam, there is a certain satisfaction to be derived from winning the championship on points difference.  Ireland have finished level on points with the champions in the recent past, but always came out second best on this metric.  Not this time, though, and the real differentiator between Ireland’s and England’s points differential was the thorough beating we handed out to Wales, which everyone can feel happy about. And the key reason England didn’t thrash Wales as well was consistently giving away kickable penalties to keep Wales in the game – something we happily avoided all tournament.  George Hook and others may lament the rules, but Ireland weren’t top of the log by accident.

To briefly talk about the game itself, it was torture. France turned up in a big way – Maxime Machenaud was class, Picamoles, Bastareaud unstoppable and the back three threatened with every touch. Ireland were superb for the middle 40 minutes, but the final 20 were horrible.  We eked out a 9 point lead after 55 minutes, but wilted under the pressure of the French desire and our own poor execution. Only a poor place kick from Doussain, prime butchery of a simple pass from Pape and a lucky scrum call right at the end got us over the line. It was the game was the best of the tournament and for pure bloody-mindedness, we just about deserved it. Some of the highlights:

  • The Sexton try in the second half. A spectacular break from Trimble and a brilliant piece of play from BOD – realising he wasn’t getting in, he plotted a path to recycle and we got in right under the posts. POC’s super-fast pick and drive from the ruck was a classic example of a huge carry for small gain – it crucially kept the momentum going.  And after seeing the way Sexton shanked the conversion, touching down under the posts was the winning of the game
  • Mike Ross destroying Thomas Domingo – Ross had an average year up to the Six Nations but has been totemic. Perhaps he just needed a bit of time to get to grips with the new scrum dynamics.  Seeing off a man like Domingo before halftime is one for the headstone.  Poor old Rosser remains totally undervalued – by ourselves as much as anyone else.  We wanted to see more of Marty Moore, but after the last ten minutes in Paris it’s clear just how far the young man has to go to get to Ross’ venerated level.
  • Dreamboat getting pedantic with the TMO right at end about whether it was forward out of Pape’s hands.  With Super Forward Pass-a-Rama Rugby in his DNA, he really, really wanted to give the try.  Triminjus, in his despair, said to no-one in particular “Come on man!”
  • Brice Dulin. Despite us being on the receiving end, a vintage full-back display from the little Frenchman. With him and Willie le Roux, little guys at 15 are back in vogue
  • Our favourite: the touching moment on the field after the game as Rog and Shaggy talked with Andrew Trimble about his journey from international outcast to golden boy.  The delight of the two retirees to see the “real Andrew Trimble” was palpable and the honesty with which Trimble discussed his struggles was captivating. The obvious delight the Leinsterman and Munsterman had for the Ulsterman was a joy to watch – you sensed McGurk was about to interrupt and ruin the moment, but thankfully he didn’t

However, it would be remiss not to point out that Ireland could still be an awful lot better at closing out tight, crucial matches.  We certainly couldn’t be accused of showing composure in the final ten minutes, and, in many ways, we were worse than in the BNZ game in November.  Courage, determination, incredible will to win; we ticked all of that, but not composure.  We’ve earned a tag of being chokers down the years and here, once again, we choked at least a little bit. In Paul O’Connell’s pitch-side interview post-game, he was furious about how we finished and mentioned it more than once – this is another positive.  In 2009 in Wales we stopped playing rugby in the final 20 minutes and lost our discipline, but somehow still won.  Here we stopped playing rugby, repeatedly kicking the ball to the French back three who were comfortable in finding ways to return it for profit, but maintained our discipline, at least until our scrum collapsed.  Maybe we’re getting there by degrees.  On this occasion it was enough to win.  The curious thing is that the provinces are all good closer-outers, with Munster regarded as world beaters in clutch situations.  But as we said in our pre-match post, the weight of history can be as hard to beat as the opponent.

Finally, what is there left to say about Brian O’Driscoll that hasn’t already been said?  The curious thing was that there was more BOD-related fanfare for his second-last match than his last, but that’s because there was a championship on the line which was the main media focus, and that’s exactly how he would have wanted it.

We are the champions, my friends.  Enjoy it.

The Spectre of Historical Bamboozling

When New Zealand won the 2011 World Cup in outrageously fortuitous circumstances, we gave them some credit in spite of the dubious manner of their victory.  The reason was because they not only had to beat France, but the weight of history too, after so many diabolical chokes.  In similar circumstances, Ireland must beat France in Paris this weekend.  On the evidence of the tournament so far (and what better evidence is there to go on?) Ireland are a vastly better team, a better coached and selected team, more unified, fitter and more skilful and should be strong favourites for the win.  Their greatest obstacle is the weight of history; that so many visits to Paris have ended in sorry defeat and that this will affect the mentality of the players.  Ireland have a well-earned reputation as the nearly men of international rugby, and their inability to beat France more often is the prosecution’s Exhibit B (you know what exhibit A is).

The build-up this week will feature and has featured lots of phrases such as French unpredictability, the difficulty of winning in Paris, backlashes and France having one big performance in them – Gerry has even rolled out 1982 in the case for the defence.  The job for Joe Schmidt is to get such thoughts out of the players’ minds, and surely there is nobody better able to do so.  Schmidt’s modus operandi is to hand players the solution to beating opponents.  How many times have we heard that he is obsessed with process, detail and accuracy.  If the players can get previous defeats in Paris out of their minds, and focus on exploiting the French team’s weaknesses (and there are many) they will win the game, and the championship.  One thing that came out of the recent Q&A that went viral was Schmidt’s unwillingness to accept ‘received wisdoms’ and we cannot envisage how he will be in any way daunted by Ireland’s miserable record in Paris.  Focus on the process!

[Note: another was, ironically, Schmidt’s reluctance to give the 2011 BNZ team any credit for the final – he claimed they had choked worse than 2007 and were indebted to an even bigger choke – from Joubert]

Listen to, say, Keith Wood describe playing the French in Paris and he talks about a whirlwind of pace; just as you clear your lines, the French take a quick lineout, you spend the first 20 minutes without the ball as the French create ruck after ruck, phase after phase, attack after attack.  But them days is gone; the chances of Ireland struggling to handle this French team’s pace in the first 20 minutes would appear almost non existent.  Phillipe Saint Andre has stuck to his selectorial guns and excluded Morgan Parra and Francois Trinh-Duc, so a sudden upping of their slow-motion grindathon rugby is off le carte. Our catalogue of betes noires from the noughties – Clerc, Servat, Pelous, Harinordoquoy, Heymans, Jauzion, Poitrenaud – are nowhere to be seen.

We can also expect plenty of rumours of player power and a French revolt, but again, where can it come from?  Some sort of dressing room coup seemed to take place in the World Cup, when the hapless Lievremont was in place, but the leadership corp of strong personalities who were in place then are all gone – none of Imanol Harinordoquy, Julien Bonnaire, William Servat, Dmitri Yachvili or Thierry Dusautoir are in the current squad.  Pascal Pape is the current captain and he does not have the demeanour of a man about to wrest the controls from the coach.  Heck, the man looks like he got out of bed five minutes before kick-off.

Paul O’Connell talked after the Italy game of the respect they showed Italy, and how the result came from that; well, this week, it’s important we show a healthy lack of respect for France.  If anything, in the past, we appear to have shown too much respect for them.  So many defeats appear to have been borne out by standing off the French, apparently seduced by their good looks and Galois-smoking coolness. Gerry’s oft-repeated warning about kicking loosely to their back three is as much a love letter as anything else.

Look a little closer, though, and that’s maybe not quite the case, not in the last decade anyway.  While Ireland’s record in Paris clearly points to some sort of inferiority complex, it is not so much that they are beaten out the gate; more that reactions to on-pitch events have let us down.  Recent visits to Paris have more often than not been notable for Ireland starting really well and even taking the game to the home side.  The matches have typically slid away from Ireland due to a game-changing moment going against us, or some sort of utterly wretched point-gun-at-foot-and-pull-trigger incident, or panic setting in at the first sign of momentum shifting against us.  Even the pretty abject 2012-vintage Ireland took the game to France and stormed into an early lead, before a lucky French try brought them back into the game, which was eventually drawn.

And while a scoreline of 33-10 in 2010 looks like a classic French drubbing, for the first 30 minutes Ireland were the better side, and should have scored after Gordon D’arcy’s break and chip-and-chase bounced cruelly.  Ireland paid for a daftly selected bench and were forced to bring on Paddy Wallace for the stricken Rob Kearney and had to change around most of their backline.  The pendulum swung France’s way and first Jirry Flannery, and then DJ Church, had hugely expensive moments of madness.

2008 was similar again.  Ireland were badly stuttering in the Last Days of Eddie, but they attacked France from the first moment, but gave Vincent Clerc a couple of soft jog-in tries and a freakish Cedric Heymans try appeared to put France out of sight.  But Ireland refused to lie down.  Jamie Heaslip had finally been given a start by a reluctant Eddie O’Sullivan and was outstanding, as Ireland fought back to almost win at the death.

And who could forget the 2006 bonkers-fest?  Again Ireland played most of the rugby, but just couldn’t stop punching themselves in the face, and allowed France to score a bunch of utterly ridiculous, boneheadedly farcical tries.  Geordan Murphy’s reputation of not having a ‘happy hunting ground’ in Paris was sealed here, as he endured a nightmare.  This was the game where Neil Francis gave a somewhat raw Tommy Bowe zero out of ten.  But again, Ireland refused to lie down.  Trimble replaced Bowe and was superb as Ireland countered with no less than four second half tries and had France hanging on at the end.

Ireland need to foster the same attacking spirit as they have in the past.  The key to winning will be maintaining cool heads in the face of pressure and the inevitable occasional hometown decision. Ireland should be better than France in every other respect.  A performance on a par with those delivered against England or Wales will be good enough – and more.  A win for Ireland and the sceptre of historical bamboozling can be slain.

Psychiatrists Couch

The secretary comes into the waiting room. She spots the torrid wreck on the sofa and says “the doctor will see you now”. The patient uneasily walks in and lies on the coach. “Thanks Dr Freud” they say, “we need this”.

Dr Freud: So tell me about your dream, Ireland

Ireland: Well, I keep seeing these muscular, dark-eyed stubbly geniuses in my dreams. They are so silky, fashionable and effortlessly cool. They make me feel so inadequate.

Dr Freud: What do these men say?

Ireland: They don’t even look at me. They simply go about their business. And it’s such a stylish and enigmatic business. I end up so weak-kneed that I just kick loosely to their Rolls-Royce like outside backs and they run riot as we invite them to do what they want to us. They glide past me like shadows. Such good-looking long-haired shadows. *sniffs*

Dr Freud: Let’s be more specific. Tell me about the good-looking ones.

Ireland: Well, there’s Emile N’Tamack running in try after try in the Parc des Princes. Then Philipe Saint-Andre in Durban, laughing at our heavy-legged attempts to shake off altitude. That Freddy guy, toying with our minds as he shreds our confidence and defence. Vincent Clerc – he’s the worst – he makes us cry before he even gets level with us. And Cedric Heymans – smoking a Gitanes outside Coppers, our women on his arms – so suave.

Its so unfair Doctor, we try so hard, but they don’t respect us. They are full of self-confidence and look down on our mental frailties. They ruined our holidays in South Africa, Australia and then France. They won’t let us have the ball.

Dr Freud: Hold on. Do they sing?

Ireland: They do. They sing such a manly, raucous song – a song of revolt, of brotherhood, of liberty and of great red wine. It makes our pair of dirges sound even worse. It makes them grow, I swear. Listen for yourself, you’ll find yourself saying eminense grise when talking about Yannick Jauzion.

Dr Freud: Ah! The French!

Ireland: Yes. the French. *sobs* All I can see is a tattered tricolore flying over Paris in ’89, General de Gaulle strutting down the Champs Elysee in ’45, Eric Cantona’s poetry about seagulls and trawlers and Vincent Cassel’s chiselled cheekbones. Their orange sauce is to die for!

Dr Freud: This is a severe case of inferiority complex. Sure, their unstructured backline play of the 1970s and 1980s made you look like the bunch of fat amateurs you were, but things have changed – I mean, you can beat everyone else.

Ireland: Except the All Blacks.

Dr Freud: Don’t call them that! And leave it – this session is only an hour.

Ireland: Ok. Go on.

Dr Freud: You have knocked off the Springboks a few times, Australia semi-regularly, England more often than not since the Millennium, that Scotland hoodoo has gone. I mean, it’s not 2006 any more – they aren’t even that good.

Ireland: What? But all I read is about how dangerous they are when cornered – that Wesley Fofana is like Christopher Dean.

Dr Freud: Listen, their forwards are out of shape and trot from ruck to ruck with the stamina of the bastard lovechild of CJ van der Linde and Matt le Tissier. Their captain is injured. The nincompoop coach has done nothing since Sale Sharks – Sale Sharks! – and has managed to fall out with his two best players. I mean – look at them – look! They hate each other. How can you say you can’t beat them?

Ireland: *mumbling* but … Medard’s chops … Szarszewski’s hair … Huget’s beard

Dr Freud: Forget all that – the referee on Saturday has more testosterone in his little finger than the French team have in their staring XV. Let me call in my assistant.

The doctors assistance enters the room.

Joe: Get up off the floor, you gibbering wreck. This is insane – all those great players are gone. The Saint-Andre guy – he’s ruining the team! You guys have a gameplan and are well-coached – these guys are a shambles. Here’s what we are doing – we are forgetting any mental hangups and concentrating on process. We will design a gameplan to beat a flawed and uninterested team, and we will beat them. I could not care less what has happened in the past. This is a professional sport, and we are going to win. Text all your friends with one reason why we will win, then come back to me on Saturday.

Ireland: Are we nearly done here? I’ve a puff piece to do with Gerry for Saturday.

Joe: Gerry! Do not under any circumstances speak to that man – we’ve to foster a healthy lack of respect for France. And think about this: you get their respect by beating them. They’ll like you, and might even be friends. If you are serious about getting pulling lessons from Parra, make him want to go out with you. Now, where is O’Mahony – I need to tell him he’ll turn to stone if he looks Walsh in the eye.

*curtains fall*

The truth is, Ireland’s rugby relationship with the French mirrors exactly our national hangups – we would like our society to be more open, more egalitarian and with better trains, we want to be more fashionable, eat better food and drink better wine. We look at France and see not the clapped-out third gear country of now, but a gleaming idealist paradise, with great-looking citoyens.

For all that we protest that we a modern country now with the Troubles and the banana-republic capers behind us, the reality is we don’t believe it ourselves. If we can begin to beat the French on the field, who knows where it might lead in the sphere of national development. The DORSH might even start to run regularly and on-time! Let’s start that journey on Saturday. Allez les verts! Wait, I’m over-respecting their romantic and expressive language … darn, how do we stop!