The build-up to this game has focused strongly on the history of needle and grudge between the sides. However, the absence of Roncero, O’Gara, Ledesma, Leamy and Contepomi might mean we can move on and – who knows – a game of rugby could briefly break out amid the sledging and shady breakdown activities. Argentina have evolved – post 2007, their sights have been set a lot higher than scrapping out with Ireland for the leftovers from the top table. Their debut season in the Rugby Championship was impressive and will have given them much tougher tests than Ireland have had this season. They’re battle-hardened and cohesive.
The Puma tour to date has consisted of a surprisingly easy win in the Millennium Stadium, followed by a surprisingly heavy defeat to the French in Lille. The Welsh defeat to Samoa has reduced the value of the first a little, but taking a beating rom France doesn’t look too bad in light of their evisceration of the Wallabies the previous week. Ireland, of course, were limply defeated by the Springboks, then played a meaningless non-Test rout of Fiji the week after – they’ll either be raring to go or as drab and unimaginative as ever. Probably both.
We can expect a punishing battle up front with the heavyweight Argentinian tight 5 – Mike Ross apparently managed to do enough in 53 minutes against Fiji to convince Deccie he is still the rightful heir to the great John Hayes, upon whose watch the Ireland scrum rarely creaked like it has of late (right, folks?), and the Corkman should be able to take the Puma pressure upfront. We hope what must have been a bizarre week for Ross finishes on a high. However, Ireland have two relatively light locks and this could be a tougher test for them than the Boks provided – Eben Etzebeth is still a nipper and Juandre Kruger something of a journeyman.
The winning of the game will likely be in the backrow and halves, and specifically in the battle of the captains – Jamie Heaslip against Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe. Whichever of these two is more prominent is likely to be the one in the winning side. Fernandez Lobbe produced perhaps his best performance in the Puma shirt against Wales and will take some stopping – but stop him and it’s half the battle. From an Irish perspective, we’d like to see Peter O’Mahony more prominent. Worries about his physical readiness for Test rugby are still gnawing at us. Chris Henry has deserved his extended chance in the 7 shirt, and we also want to see something specific from him – staying on the pitch for 80 minutes. In the HEC quarter-final against Munster and the Fiji game, he got binned for ruck offences – but at this level you need to be a little cuter. It’s pointless to tell him be to be Ruchie, but perhaps he should try to be Chris Robshaw – tough and nuggety, but someone who will grind away for the entire 80.
Ireland have the advantage in the quarterback department – El Mago may be ludicrously talented, but he’s barely got his shirt dirty since his finest hour in 2007, and in any case, he’ll start at fullback with Nicolas Sanchez at 10. In contrast, since Hernandez’ finest hour, Johnny Sexton has three HEC winners medals and an ever-increasingly scrapbook of memorable moments – if Ireland can control the set piece and breakdown, Sexton will win the game.
Outside the halves, it could be about keeping your hands warm. Argentina will assuredly send up a few bombs to test the green and fresh Simon Zebo and Craig Gilroy – if the kicks are accurate the ensuing rucking will be furious and work in the Pumas favour, if they are not and the tyros get space to run, Ireland could be in business. Ireland’s kicking game in the absence of Bob has in general been pretty average and we don’t expect anything different on Saturday – but with Argentina not having the same strike runners out wide as Ireland do, it’s unlikely to be punished.
So, what do we expect? The Argentinian pack is superior to Ireland’s, but the Irish backs are more threatening. If Ireland somehow manage to get a lot of good ball, they should have enough talent to win, but if it descends into muck and rucks, it will be Argentina’s to lose. The best kicker in the Puma squad is Martin Bustos Moyano, but its Santiago Fernandez who will probably stand over the kicks – and he ain’t got the mental.
We are wavering, but in close contests, the team with a definable gameplan and confidence in its execution normally prevails – there is one team like that in this game .. and it ain’t Ireland. Still, we travel in hope, and wouldn’t it be funny to see the bed-wetting in the press if a certain apple-cheeked Corkman came off the bench to drop a winning goal after, I don’t know, say 41 phases? RADGE!!!
Ireland: S Zebo; T Bowe, K Earls, G D’Arcy, C Gilroy; J Sexton, C Murray; C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross; D Ryan, M McCarthy; P O’Mahony, C Henry, J Heaslip (capt).
Replacements: S Cronin, D Kilcoyne, M Bent, D O’Callaghan, I Henderson, E Reddan, R O’Gara , F McFadden.
Argentina: J M Hernandez; G Camacho, M Bosch, S Fernandez, J Imhoff; N Sanchez, M Landajo; M Ayerza, E Guinazu, M Bustos; M Carizza, J F Cabello; J M Fernandez Lobbe (capt), J M Leguizamon, L Senatore.
Replacements: A Ceevy, N Lobo, F Gomez Kodela, T Vallejos Cinalli, T Leonardi, N Vergallo, G Tiesi, M Montero.
Note: if Ireland lose they will be ranked in the third tier for the RWC draw, but Argentina are much closer to being safely in the top 8 already – if they lose by less than 15 points, they are likely to still make it – it’s all here. The prime advantage of being seeded second is avoiding the hosts, England – as the Mole will explain.