Kidney’s Positive Step

Kidney’s training squad announcements rarely amount to much of a news day; in general everyone is invited to the party, and while it occasionally gives fans a chance to grumble over a stray omission (Paul Marshall and Fionn Carr in the past) the squad is usually intended to give away as little as possible.

In terms of personnel today’s announcement is little different.  Thirty-nine players are named, and while it’s good to see the likes of Ian Madigan and Robbie Henshaw included, given the size of the group, it’s impossible to derive anything meaningful from it.

However, the announcement that Jamie Heaslip will captain the Ireland team is a bit of news.  For the first time in almost a decade, Brian O’Driscoll will be on the Ireland team, but not the captain.  He says he’s ‘hugely disappointed’ and that the captaincy meant a lot to him.  Incidentally, the call was suggested by one of our many astute followers in the comment box recently.

It’s a positive move from Kidney for two reasons.  The first is player succession.  Brian O’Driscoll will not be going to the World Cup in 2015, and with a high degree of probability, won’t be around next season.  He’s yet to fully come back from his current injury layoff and is a doubt for the Exeter match this weekend (although likely to play, we understand).  It’s better to try to establish the next captain now than to wait until BO’D isn’t around.  It’s planning for the future, when he won’t be there; something Kidney’s critics – and that includes us – feel he hasn’t done enough of in his tenure.  Besides, having BO’D around to lean on will do Jamie no harm whatsoever as he grows into what is still a new role for him.

The second is continuity.  Sticking with Heaslip for the job signals a determination to carry forward the positive momentum generated in November, especially in the wins over Fiji and Argentina.  Heaslip is not everyone’s cup of mocha frappucino, and his debut as captain against South Africa did not go very well, but Kidney and Schmidt have only ever shown complete trust in him.  He enters the Six Nations in good form with Leinster and is a keystone of the pack.  It sets a positive tone, and one that we hope will be backed up with the remaining selections; in particular that Gilroy, Zebo and the in-form Fitzgerald will be considered for the wing positions, rather than Earls, who is not playing there and has been vocal about why, and – of huge importance – that the style in which Conor Murray played, and created space for Sexton to exploit in the win over Argentina, will be repeated in the Spring.

Le Johnny Show-Bizz?

Johnny Sexton has reportedly been offered megabucks to join Racing Metro.  By all accounts it’s a serious offer and the club has plans to become a European force over the next two-to-three seasons.  They’ve signed up Castres’ highly-rated coaching ticket for next year, and have identified Johnny as the man they need to conquer Europe.

The IRFU have, apparently, been slow to respond, which on the face of it, is remarkable.  Sexton is now firmly established as the nation’s premier 10, and it appears a fait accomplis that he will be the starting Lions fly-half.  There is a legitimate argument that he is the outstanding player in the country, having surpassed O’Driscoll and O’Connell, both of whose recent impact has been limited by injury.

While nothing has been signed yet, the whole affair does bring to light the glaring flaw in centralised contracting.  The system whereby the top players are centrally controlled by the IRFU has, in general, been a success, with the players’ match time controlled appropriately.  But the other side of the coin is that the provinces’ needs come a distant second.

While the IRFU in general puts a lot of stock in having the players under their control, they might be somewhat agnostic about Sexton leaving for Paris.  For a start, playing in France is no longer the flog-athon it was once perceived as, and the big Top 14 contenders now have large enough squads to rest their better players.  Juan Martin Hernandez and Winiewski are both on Racing’s books, so Johnny 10 can comfortably be rotated out of the team as and when the coaches see fit.  Matching Racing’s offer is presumably out of the question, but even without doing so, the IRFU would seemingly have to offer terms that would establish Sexton as the best paid player in the country in order to keep him in Ireland.  It wouldn’t be undeserved, but perhaps they’re not that keen on the idea.  They’ll still have access to Johnny for internationals, and his standing is such that he’ll continue to be picked wherever he plays.  And his leaving Leinster would pave the way for Ian Madigan – potentially his understudy at test level next season, but possibly a bit of a headache for the IRFU while on the bench at Leinster – to flourish at his home province.  Indeed, Madigan would probably be the biggest beneficiary of all this.

The team with the most to lose by Johnny setting sail are Leinster.  Before Joe Schmidt even signed on at the province, he identified Sexton as the most important player at the club – it was he and Leo Cullen that Schmidt met for a chat to discuss his vision for Leinster rugby, and the Kiwi has built the team around Sexton’s regal attacking game.  But Leinster can only sit idly by while the IRFU crunch the numbers.  They can do nothing tangible to keep him at the club.  It points to a schism in the system.

As Peter O’Reilly discussed so eloquently in the Sunday Times, Sexton is one of the icons of Irish rugby, particularly in his home province.  Among Leinster fans, he has come to embody the new winning culture at the province, with his arrival as a first team player coinciding exactly with the beginning of Leinster’s dominance.  His rise to the top has been especially hard-won; the manner in which he has had to overcome adversity to get to where he is today, and had to claw the Irish 10 shirt off the back of a legend, have made him an especially adored player on the terraces of the RDS.

As for Johnny himself, nobody would begrudge him a couple of seasons on a colossal salary in the splendour of Paris.  He owes Leinster nothing, having steered them to three Heineken Cups.  The timing could probably never be better.  The Lions tour will be out of the way and he could return in time for the World Cup in 2015.  But for those who have watched him develop from a skinny-limbed youngster on his debut in Thomond Park to the world-class leader he is today, it would be difficult to watch him play in another team’s colours.  The IRFU should do what they can to tie down one of their greatest assets.

*The title is a reference to Racing Metro’s 1980s backline, which was famous for its flair and eccentricity, and became known as Le Show-Bizz.  Read more about the club’s colourful history here.

Bent Cops

One of the more endearing/bizarre (delete as appropriate) stories of last November was the ascension of Michael Bent from the Dublin Airport arrivals hall to the bench to face up to the Springboks in the Palindrome, with the now de rigeur hurley forcd into his hand for a photo-shoot, to show just how Oirish he really is. We, and most commentators, acknowledged at the time that Deccie didn’t have many other options.

The theme of Ireland having a tighthead crisis has been going on for so long as to be a constant source of white noise in any selection debate. John Hayes soldiered manfully for a decade, and delivered a relatively solid set piece as the foundation for piles more silverware than Ireland had ever won before (and not just because the Triple Crown was a metaphorical trophy until recently), but behind him, there wasn’t much. The IRFU plucked Mushy Buckley from the Munster undergrowth in 2008-ish and decreed him the next big thing – the player had many promising moments, but ultimately was a huge let-down – Hayes played far longer than was humane, and the occasional filling-in of Tom Court was just that – filling in.

Once Mushy failed to make half-time in the pre-2011 Six Nations Wolfhounds game, patience finally snapped – he was out of the picture. Luckily for everyone, Mike Ross at Leinster had developed into a fine tighthead under Greg Feek – he could always scrummage, but his all-round game and conditioning improved beyond all recognition. The Ireland scrum became a weapon like never before – the filleting of the England pack in the Aviva in 2011 was as surprising as it was enjoyable.

Unfortunately, Ross is human, and tires occasionally, as we have discussed before.  It’s essential for Ireland to have some credible backup (i.e. not Buckley). The alternatives are:

  • Deccie Fitzpatrick – classic scrummager, good debut on tour, but too injury-prone to rely on
  • Jamie Hagan – struggling to convince he can scrummage well enough at Pro12 level, never mind the HEC
  • Stephen Archer – struggling to convince he can scrummage well enough at AIL level, never mind the Pro12
  • Michael Bent – just landed, but comes with a good rep from Tarananki in New Zealand

Bent’s call-up resulted in more than a little frothing at the mouth, with George Hook getting especially apoplectic with rage live on air.  But tempers were clamed – as they so often are – by the sight of the big fella playing and scrummaging well. On his first appearance on this island, in green, he came on for an exhausted Mike Ross against the Springboks and acquitted himself well – the scrum looked solid and his first action was to win a scrum penalty. Two further substitute appearances followed – against a bunny Fiji side mourning the death of a team-mate and not really bothering to turn up, and a tired Puma team who were spectacularly dismantled early on. Neither gleaned much useful information.

Then, after the RWC15 draw, there were the usual flurry of potential Ireland teams named – this is a fool’s errand of course, but it’s a bit of fun and generally an interesting debate. All of them had one thing in common – Bent at tighthead – and why not, since its pretty clear that, akin to the Hayes/Buckley succession plan, that all the national teams eggs are in the Bent basket when it comes to Mike Ross’s long-term replacement. But how realistic is that?

After rounds three and four of the HEC, Ross was given some time off, and Bent got his chance in the December interpros against Ulster and Connacht. He endured a difficult time. Against Ulster, he was milked for scores by the Ulster pack, and his opposite number and international fall-guy Tom Court was man of the match. Then in the RDS against Connacht, he had another shaky outing, and was called ashore shortly after being wheeled by Connacht academy graduate Denis Buckley. Worrying signs, and a curius performance graph.

Of course, Bent isn’t some greenhorn plucked from obscurity and asked to man up – he came through the Taranaki youth system, spent 10 years going up through the grades and eventually made 11 Super Rugby appearances (5 starts) for the Hurricanes and was Taranaki player of the year for 2012 after a productive ITM Cup campaign. That’s a promising CV – but not a home run one. If Super Rugby is somewhat analogous to the HEC, then the ITM Cup is probably at a level slightly better than the Pro12. We will confess, we haven’t seen much ITM Cup action, but if it’s comparable to the Currie Cup (which you would imagine it is – second level professional rugby), it’s probably of the standard of the better Pro12 games.

So Bent comes across as a decent Pro12 standard 26-year old prop, with a reputation for being able to play both sides, after a handful of SR appearances. By co-incidence, another prop came over to Ireland aged 26, with an ambipropstrous reputation (although considered primarily a tighthead at the time) and a handful of SR appearances – Tom Court, in 2006. Both arrived from relative obscurity and neither were mapped internationally.

Of course, the comparison is somewhat moot – Court only took up rugger a couple of years before coming over, while Bent, as a Kiwi, has presumably been steeped in it since birth – Bent shouldn’t have a learning curve like Court did. But the comparison is valid at one level – you don’t arrive in Ireland from second tier rugby and immediately become international class. Bent has some good qualities, but is very much a work in progress. If he is to lock the Ireland scrum for RWC15, he would want to be Leinster’s first choice HEC tighthead by the beginning of the 2014-15 season – that gives him 1.5 years to gain experience, develop further and get to that level – which isn’t that much time really. Even allowing for Ross’s relatively advanced years, he doesn’t have that much rugby behind him – only six full seasons. The idea that he will fade away and Bent step in may be a little presumtuous.

Now, where were we going with this? Ah yes, Ireland’s tighthead crisis. There is a lot of focus and pressure on Michael Bent for a number of reasons – the unusual nature of his call-up, and Ireland’s traditional lack of resources in his position. But expectations have to be tempered a little as well – if Bent is to be the RWC15 tighthead, he needs to be better than Mike Ross in 1.5 years – is that realistic? Maybe, but let him bed in in a new country and gain experience at provincial level first.

To get back to Court, it is only now (ironically, after Deccie has decided Dave Kilcoyne is better than him), after 6 seasons, that Court is realising his potential – and he has been first choice in Ulster for a long time. It was unfortunate that Bent’s first game was against a man who has matured into quite a wily operator, but the mirror held up by Court is an instructive one – Court’s level (HEC and occasionally international class) should be where we expect Bent to get to – anything more will be a bonus. And if RWC15 comes too soon for Bent, be patient – he will only be 33 when RWC19 comes along. Just because he isn’t ploughing opposition scrums right now doesn’t mean he will be the new Peter Borlase or Clint Newland …. or even the new Tony Buckley for that matter.

Wednesday Shorts

It’s the middle of the week and there’s plenty to wrap up before moving on to the Heineken Cup, so here’s a little about a lot.

Go and Learn To Beat France

Ireland have been pitted against France in the 2015 World Cup draw, and our history against them, especially in the World Cup itself, is fairly lamentable – the names Emile N’Tamack, Frederick Michalak and Vincent Clerc may ring some pretty painful bells.  Still, at least it gives us three years to work out how to beat them.  Ireland don’t really do ‘building for the World Cup’ in the same way as some other nations target it from far out, but you could be forgiven for thinking the gameplan they had going in to the last World Cup (essentially choke tackle everything in sight plus Give the Ball to Seanie or Fez) was tailored specifically to beating the Aussies.  It was certainly fit for purpose, but when it came to doing away with Wales, it was exposed as too narrow and one-dimensional.  Ireland now have three years to put together a gameplan that will beat France, because beat them we must or the BNZers await in the quarter finals.  Choke tackling probably won’t be as high on the list of priorities this time around.  Who knows, pace and offloading could – and should – come to the fore.  And somehow finding a way to deal with Louis Picamoles.

En-ger-land

Whatever you make of Lancaster’s mob, and whatever the details of the Kiwis’ succumbing to norovirus in the week, that was a performance to stir the soul.  English rugby will do well to keep its feet on the ground, but it’s a win worthy of a little getting carried away.  England’s commitment to the breakdown was especially commendable.  Wood, Launchbury and Youngs were outstanding in that area, repeatedly slowing down the Kiwis’ ball.  Whatever about Ashton’s loathsome swan dive, we were especially happy for two of the good guys in the team: Chris Robshaw for responding so well after his leadership credentials were questioned and Tom Wood for his best performance since being out for so long with injury.  Wood is a class act and had the grace through the adrenalin rush to wish the womens’ team the best of luck in his man of the match interview.

Professionalism Calleth

And so, the IRFU hurtle towards professionalism, with an Elite Performance Director soon to be appointed.  The role appears to involve developing and running the game, appointing coaches and trying to get the national team and provinces to work together rather than driving wedges between one another.  Time is very much of the essence – particularly, we imagine, with Deccie and his coaching team’s contracts up at the end of the year.  The role appears so well suited to Conor O’Shea it’s almost silly.  He has links to both Leinster and Munster and appears to have vision and terrific organisational capabilities.  Plus, he’s a smoothie who’d be highly capable at dealing with the public.  It’s a no brainer.  Could he be prised away from the Harlequins project for what would be a pivotal role in Irish rugby?  As Irish rugby fans, we would certainly hope so.

Filling Spaces

So, we turn our attentions to the Heineken Cup.  We’ll be looking in depth at the significance of the double headers on thursday, but a quick look at selection issues at the provinces is in order.  Ulster had the luxury of auditioning both Gilroy and Trimble for the play on the wing opposite Tommy Bowe, but Munster and Leinster appear not to be so fortunate right now.  In the back five for Munster, and the backline for Leinster, it’s become a case of finding enough good players to fill the spots, such are the injuries they’ve to withstand.  For Munster, O’Connell, Stander, Dougall and possibly Niall Ronan are all out, while Leinster must make do without O’Driscoll, Rob Kearney, Eoin O’Malley and Luke Fitzgerald.  We expect Munster to line out with O’Callaghan-Ryan-O’Callaghan-O’Mahony-Cawlin from 4 to 8, and Leinster to run with Madigan-Kearney-McFadden-D’arcy-Nacewa from 15-11.  A daunting weekend lies ahead for both.

New Generals

When reviewing the Autumn series on Tuesday, Gerry referred to a new officer class in the Irish team, and it’s interesting to note that the Argentina performance was produced in the absence of the three men who drove the success of the Irish team from 2004-2009 – Brian O’Driscoll, Paul O’Connell and Ronan O’Gara. But our question is – is there a new officer class emerging in the Irish side, or is there, in fact, a new general class coming through to replace the Holy Trinity of the noughties?

It looks increasingly like the end is near for all three, and we are at the stage where the value of selecting any of them is at least up for debate. Take Paul O’Connell – he may be the rock upon which the Munster pack is built, but for Ireland, perhaps a ball-handling lock would suit the team better, and his injury situation is increasingly worrying.  And what of O’Driscoll? Keith Earls might not have had a great November series, but based on this season’s form, he or Darren Cave would get into the XV ahead of BOD. For what it’s worth, we’d still pick a fully-fit POC and BOD for this Six Nations, but it’s worth pausing to ask whether the value of what they brings to the team offset the negative value to the side of selecting them (i.e. reducing the influence of the new generals)?  And as for the next Six Nations?  It’s entirely probable none will be available.

It’s an intriguing question to ask whether the Argentina performance could have been produced with any of the above in the side. We would contend possibly not – the Leinster-centric gameplan executed by Sexton and enabled by Heaslip would not have been realised had O’Connell been on the pitch – as captain he would have gravitated towards something different, and the step-ups shown by the likes of Ryan and Murray may not have happened if the mega-personalities of POC and BOD been on the field, and O’Gara’s best is long past.

If the new general corps in the Ireland side consists of Rory Best, Donnacha Ryan, Jamie Heaslip, Johnny Sexton and Rob Kearney; they are ably assisted by an emerging new officer corps – Cian Healy, Chris Henry, Conor Murray, Sean O’Brien, Fez, Keith Earls and Tommy Bowe, and with the likes of Peter O’Mahony, Iain Henderson, Craig Gilroy and Luke Marshall in the next generation of players to come in, it looks like Ireland’s transition from the Grand Slam team of 2009 into a serious side is nearing completion.

Deccie hasn’t always handled the transition well, and the player turnover does not necessarily reflect progressive selection or any great vision on Kidney’s part.  Injury has all too often been Ireland’s best selector, and if certain key players had not been unfit this November, the tone of this piece could be quite different.  But in fairness to the head coach, he did talk in the first week in camp about the importance of the next generation of leaders stepping up and taking more responsibility.

Looking at the XV from the Argentina game, only Jamie Heaslip [then a coltish fist-pumping youngster selected for 4 starts], Gordon D’Arcy [2 starts] and Tommy Bowe [5 starts] survive from the Grand Slam team – thats 64 starts by 12 players in the 5 games of the 2009 Six Nations worth of experience lost. It’s a huge turnover, but one which appears to be reaching fruition – successful teams all have a myriad of on-field generals backed up by a strong officer corps – just look at how England have floundered in the absence of generals since 2003.

In fact, for comparitive purposes, le’ts look at that England side of RWC03 (and try not to get too carried away) – the generals were Vickery, Johnno, Dallaglio, Dawson, Wilkinson and Greenwood with an officer corps of Thompson, Hill, Back, Tindall, Lewsey and Robinson. That’s 6 generals in key positions surrounded by 6 officers, with the likes of Moody, Corry and Catt in reserve if even more was needed. This team had reached a point where they were virtually self-coaching – the groundwork of the preceding years had seen to that – but they were only 5 years out from a 76-0 beating by Australia.  That’s the level Ireland must aspire to (the on-field leadership, not the 76-0 drubbing, that is!).

It’s all enough to put paid to the idea that Ireland are in decline because the so-called ‘golden generation’ have moved on.  The talent pool is there, and probably wider than ever.  If Ireland can get the majority of players fit for the Six Nations, some very good players might not be in the starting team – players like Keith Earls, Peter O’Mahony and Richardt Strauss.  Eddie never had such depth available.

It’s imperative that the players have the right environment in which to blossom and that the coach gives them licence to play a progressive, exciting brand of rgby that’s fun to watch and to play.  The type of game we saw against Argentina.  It’s worth noting that in the match stats, no forward carried the ball for more than 10m in the entire match.  The majority of ball-carries were made by the backline, with Sexton, D’arcy and Gilroy rampant.  Conor Murray took contact just once.  The forwards played for the backs, and not for themselves.  Murray plyed for Sexton, and played brilliantly, his running used to create space for the 10, and not to eke out yards around the fringes.  The difference between this and the unending one-out rumbles into contact in the South Africa match is stark.  Sexton seemed to have three options running off him every time he touched the ball.  We haven’t seen Ireland play like this before.  Did a sea-change occur?  Did Heaslip and Sexton use their newfound seniority to affect a change in approach?  We can’t know, but we wouldn’t rule it out.

Sexton’s role is particularly important here.  He has been consistently the best fly-half in Europe over the last three seasons in the Heineken Cup, where he is the focal point of all that Leinster do. But with Ireland, Kidney has been content to use him as simply another cog in his spluttering machine; shunting him to first-centre and pairing him with a running scrum-half.  Commentators at one remove from Irish rugby – Stuart Barnes, for example, find this a mind boggling use of a player they consider to be a world-class talent.  We would hope that Sexton’s emergence as a New General entitles him to play the game he is best at.

If Ireland continue in the direction they are going, they can have a similar team makeup to the 2003 England team – it might just start to feel like the RWC15 cycle might be beginning in earnest.  Of course, it’s just as possible that come the Six Nations, Ireland will revert to the tripe they’ve been serving up more often than not.  It’s vital that the likes of Sexton must not see their newly elevated status within the squad being diluted when O’Connell, O’Driscoll and Best return.

Cultural Learnings of the November Internationals

Once again, we are utterly perplexed about this Ireland side? Are they the dynamic and creative team that overwhelmed and ran up a record score against (an admittedly tired and disinterested) Argentina? Or are they the lamentable and unsure bunnies who rolled over for the Springbok pack to tickle their collective bellies? The wild swings in performance level continue, and there is little point in trying to reach concrete conclusions about a group who frustrate and delight at the same time, so let’s just try and piece together what parts of the mystery are less enigmatic and which are as puzzling as ever.

What we Learned From the November Series

Yoof, Innit.  And not before time. Declan Kidney has taken quite a bit of heat for his reluctance to involve younger players who aren’t from Munster, and Craig Gilroy showed the potential that exists in throwing younger chaps who have yet to nail down a provincial shirt in at the deep end. Against Argentina, Gilroy offered an entirely new threat to that posed by other Irish backs – a geniunely pacy winger who is elusive in contact and runs intelligent lines. Within 10 minutes of his full debut he had a try in his pocket and the Irish rugby fans at his feet – a star in the making. It won’t be long either until his young colleagues Paddy Jackson, Luke Marshall and Iain Henderson are in the full side – the imminent retirement of Radge, succession questions at inside centre and need for a top class dynamic lock will see to that. The sons of Ulster might be arriving at just the right time to give Deccie’s reign a jolt of electricity that it sorely needs

Goodnight Sweetheart. In the two big games Ireland played, the man who used to boss the best in Europe around came on for a 10 minute cameo, and on both occasions, produced plays so lamentable that if they were produced by someone at the other end of his career we would hear nothing but their unsuitability to international rugby. Kicking the ball away when your team needs a try and chipping it into the grateful hands of an opposition player (leading to a try) illustrate that the great man’s international career is at an end. [As a side note, we loved how the RTE commentators studiously overlooked the errors on both occasions.]  It demonstrated a streak of selfishness, trying the million dollar play to grab the potential headlines, when he should have been playing the team game.  For 10 years, his decision-making was flawless, now it’s going-to-gone.  He has nothing more to offer, and it’s sad to see it end like this. In the pack, Donncha O’Stakhanov might have been the first sub (and only sub for 15 minutes) introduced against the Pumas, but his international career is surely over. For all the sterling service he has given, he doesn’t offer anything like he used to, or like the alternatives do, even (especially?) in the absence of Paul O’Superman. Let them move on with some dignity.

Provincial Form Counts, At Last. For the last two years, Chris Henry and Mike McCarthy have been doing the grunt work on the provincial circuit and proving themselves capable against the best teams in Europe, but for no international reward. With the injury jinx hitting Deccie’s usual servants, opportunities arose and were grasped with both hands. Competition for places is crucial in any setup, and the folly of ignoring the players playing best in their position in previous series has been laid bare by the ease with which this pair stepped up to international level.

Murray and Sexton can play together.  Conor Murray has endured a difficult twelve months and, outside him, Johnny Sexton has cut a frustrated figure for Ireland.  Too often, Murray’s first thought is to run, and his second to pass.  Sexton is the sort of general who demands centre stage – ‘give me the ball and I will direct things’.  Against Argentina, Murray was excellent.  His running was used as a strength, sucking in defenders, but rather than use it to run up blind alleys, he created space, and time, and Sexton used it to glorious effect.  The Leinster fly-half has a clear run at the Lions No.10 shirt, and no other player is even remotely in the picture.

Old fashioned wingers still at a premium.  The modern game this, how is his defence that, is he big enough the other.  It’s reassuring to see that a willowy wing who can change direction quickly is still an invaluable commodity in a world where 110kg monsters occupy every channel.  Gilroy’s electric feet and finisher’s pace are terrifically old-fashioned.  A couple of other impish speedsters are coming up on the radar in Irish rugby; Luke O’Dea and Andrew Conway.  Any rugby fan with a beating heart can only wish to see more of this unique brand of genius.

What we still don’t know

Are Ireland any good?  The series finished on a high with a memorable victory and a great performance.  But we know all too well the problem with this team, and it precludes us from getting too excited.  The pattern of occasional brilliance, usually when painted into a corner surrounded by swathes of mediocrity remains unbroken.  No team is properly consistent at test level – even New Zealand blow cold now and then – but it’s hard to think of too many whose performance graph waves so violently as Ireland’s.  Maybe Wales.  It’s only when we see how Ireland perform in Cardiff in the Six Nations that we can get any more clarity.  That’s a couple of months away.  Until then, the Irish team remains as enigmatic as ever.

Is Kidney on his last legs? For a decade, Declan Kidney has built success upon success with a relatively simple formula – enable key players with big personalities to play to their strengths, and let the silverware flow. His coaching style is hands-off with an impenetrable exterior masking a completely impenetrable interior. The formula worked well in Munster and with an Ireland team backboned by sons of Munster, but has struggled to adapt well to a Leinster-dominated team more used to something more expansive and highly instructive coaching. If Kidney can adapt his approach to cater for a side where the established players are Leinster and the young guns Ulster-based (where Deccie’s cute hoorism is particularly denigrated), he might be able to move the team on. The signs are both good (Johnny Sexton admitted the November camp was the best he’d been involved in) and bad (who exactly coached what?) at the same time. Deccie essentially needs a Grand Slam or he’s gone – it looks highly unlikely, but it would be foolish to say completely impossible.

Who will be Lions captain? At times this series looked like an attempt by players to play themselves off the plane.  Sam Warburton’s credentials are receding by the second and while Chris Robshaw has always looked more midweek captain than test team leader, his wrong-headed decision-making against South Africa gave his critics some easy ammunition.  None of the obvious Irish candidates, Paul O’Connell, Brian O’Driscoll, Rory Best or Rob Kearney were fit.  Jamie Heaslip advanced his credentials to a moderate degree in the Argentina game, while Johnny Sexton looks increasingly like a real candidate for the role.  We’ve always suspected he’s a touch too cranky for the manly chats with the referee, but he is a natural leader and one of few players nailed on for a test start.

Who will win the Six Nations?  Open season.  Can Ireland stop flattering to deceive?  Will Wales bounce back from their run of defeats or have they had their moment?  What of England?  They look close to being a good team, but it’s always just out of reach.  France had the best series of any of the Northern hemisphere, winning all three games with a rejuvenated Michalak at 10 and a lip-smacking backrow of Ouedraogo (finally!), Nyanga and Picamoles.  But they must travel to Dublin and London, so it’s a tough campaign for them. And besides, it’s France, so they could be rubbish againin six months time.

What happens back at the provinces?  Those with especially short memories might have forgotten that before November, Donnacha Ryan was having an anonymous season on the blindside with Munster.  He needs to get back to playing in his best position regularly.  Hopefully the arrival of CJ Stander will facilitate this.  Up North, Craig Gilroy’s return to regular starter is a pressing requirement – on the evidence of November, the mind boggles that Timble is picked ahead of him, but Trimble is in for his defence in a backline that contains shorties like Paddys Jackson and Wallace and occasional revolving door Jared Payne.  If Anscombe succumbs to pressure to advance Luke Marshall’s education with Heineken Cup starts, this would actually facilitate Gilroy’s advancement, as Marshall, as well as being an expansive gainline merchant, is a big (ish) heavy chap.

Is Keith Earls the Odd Man Out?  Keith Earls singularly failed to grab his chance at 13, and could find himself struggling for selection in the Six Nations, when BOD will be back.  His much-stated desire to play 13 should preclude his selection on the wing, where one of Gilroy and Zebo will have to miss out in any case.  He could be in a tight spot … unless BOD continues to do his best to play himself off the team!

Oh, Them Again

The build-up to this game has focused strongly on the history of needle and grudge between the sides.  However, the absence of Roncero, O’Gara, Ledesma, Leamy and Contepomi might mean we can move on and – who knows – a game of rugby could briefly break out amid the sledging and shady breakdown activities.  Argentina have evolved – post 2007, their sights have been set a lot higher than scrapping out with Ireland for the leftovers from the top table. Their debut season in the Rugby Championship was impressive and will have given them much tougher tests than Ireland have had this season.  They’re battle-hardened and cohesive.

The Puma tour to date has consisted of a surprisingly easy win in the Millennium Stadium, followed by a surprisingly heavy defeat to the French in Lille. The Welsh defeat to Samoa has reduced the value of the first a little, but taking a beating rom France doesn’t look too bad in light of their evisceration of the Wallabies the previous week. Ireland, of course, were limply defeated by the Springboks, then played a meaningless non-Test rout of Fiji the week after – they’ll either be raring to go or as drab and unimaginative as ever.  Probably both.

We can expect a punishing battle up front with the heavyweight Argentinian tight 5  – Mike Ross apparently managed to do enough in 53 minutes against Fiji to convince Deccie he is still the rightful heir to the great John Hayes, upon whose watch the Ireland scrum rarely creaked like it has of late (right, folks?), and the Corkman should be able to take the Puma pressure upfront. We hope what must have been a bizarre week for Ross finishes on a high.  However, Ireland have two relatively light locks and this could be a tougher test for them than the Boks provided – Eben Etzebeth is still a nipper and Juandre Kruger something of a journeyman.

The winning of the game will likely be in the backrow and halves, and specifically in the battle of the captains – Jamie Heaslip against Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe. Whichever of these two is more prominent is likely to be the one in the winning side. Fernandez Lobbe produced perhaps his best performance in the Puma shirt against Wales and will take some stopping – but stop him and it’s half the battle. From an Irish perspective, we’d like to see Peter O’Mahony more prominent. Worries about his physical readiness for Test rugby are still gnawing at us. Chris Henry has deserved his extended chance in the 7 shirt, and we also want to see something specific from him – staying on the pitch for 80 minutes. In the HEC quarter-final against Munster and the Fiji game, he got binned for ruck offences – but at this level you need to be a little cuter. It’s pointless to tell him be to be Ruchie, but perhaps he should try to be Chris Robshaw – tough and nuggety, but someone who will grind away for the entire 80.

Ireland have the advantage in the quarterback department – El Mago may be ludicrously talented, but he’s barely got his shirt dirty since his finest hour in 2007, and in any case, he’ll start at fullback with Nicolas Sanchez at 10. In contrast, since Hernandez’ finest hour, Johnny Sexton has three HEC winners medals and an ever-increasingly scrapbook of memorable moments – if Ireland can control the set piece and breakdown, Sexton will win the game.

Outside the halves, it could be about keeping your hands warm. Argentina will assuredly send up a few bombs to test the green and fresh Simon Zebo and Craig Gilroy – if the kicks are accurate the ensuing rucking will be furious and work in the Pumas favour, if they are not and the tyros get space to run, Ireland could be in business. Ireland’s kicking game in the absence of Bob has in general been pretty average and we don’t expect anything different on Saturday – but with Argentina not having the same strike runners out wide as Ireland do, it’s unlikely to be punished.

So, what do we expect? The Argentinian pack is superior to Ireland’s, but the Irish backs are more threatening. If Ireland somehow manage to get a lot of good ball, they should have enough talent to win, but if it descends into muck and rucks, it will be Argentina’s to lose. The best kicker in the Puma squad is Martin Bustos Moyano, but its Santiago Fernandez who will probably stand over the kicks – and he ain’t got the mental.

We are wavering, but in close contests, the team with a definable gameplan and confidence in its execution normally prevails – there is one team like that in this game .. and it ain’t Ireland. Still, we travel in hope, and wouldn’t it be funny to see the bed-wetting in the press if a certain apple-cheeked Corkman came off the bench to drop a winning goal after, I don’t know, say 41 phases? RADGE!!!

Ireland: S Zebo; T Bowe, K Earls, G D’Arcy, C Gilroy; J Sexton, C Murray; C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross; D Ryan, M McCarthy; P O’Mahony, C Henry, J Heaslip (capt).

Replacements: S Cronin, D Kilcoyne, M Bent, D O’Callaghan, I Henderson, E Reddan, R O’Gara , F McFadden.

Argentina: J M Hernandez; G Camacho, M Bosch, S Fernandez, J Imhoff; N Sanchez, M Landajo; M Ayerza, E Guinazu, M Bustos; M Carizza, J F Cabello; J M Fernandez Lobbe (capt), J M Leguizamon, L Senatore.

Replacements: A Ceevy, N Lobo, F Gomez Kodela, T Vallejos Cinalli, T Leonardi, N Vergallo, G Tiesi, M Montero.

Note: if Ireland lose they will be ranked in the third tier for the RWC draw, but Argentina are much closer to being safely in the top 8 already – if they lose by less than 15 points, they are likely to still make it – it’s all here. The prime advantage of being seeded second is avoiding the hosts, England – as the Mole will explain.

Tap and … Oh No

England were left to rue ‘poor decisions’ in their 14-20 defeat to Australia.  The focus was on a number of three point opportunities turned down in the second half, in particular scrum half Ben Youngs’ decision to take a quick tap-and-go.  Indeed, England passed up four kickable penalties in a bid to get the seven points they needed to get ahead on the scoreboard, rather than reducing arrears to three.

The quick-tap has become a means for commentators make themselves look very clever indeed.  ‘Poor decision, you should always go for the three points in test rugby’, they quickly tut-tut as soon as the move breaks down.  Or ‘Oh, terrific stuff there from [pint sized scrum half] there, he spotted the defence was napping, took a tap and go and now [whoever] have seven points instead of three.  Three cheers for [pint sized scrum half]!’

On Saturday, England scored a try from a quick tap penalty by Danny Care, with Tuilagi sneaking in the corner (good play), but left three points on the pitch when Ben Youngs took a tap that amounted to nothing (bad play).

It’s too simplistic to say the quick tap is a good idea when it comes off and a poor one when it fails.  Really, the decision to do this has to come from the management team.  Either Lancaster gives the likes of Youngs and Care enough rope to call it as they see it (‘heads-up’ rugby if you like) and accept that sometimes it will work out and sometimes it won’t, or he imposes a ban on tap penalties within kickable range – or he tailors his allowance for the tactic on a game-by-game, or situation-specific basis.  No player can exactly predict the future, so there will always be a risk attached to any such play.  As a coach, you live with it or you stamp it out.

In general, with our fondness for intuitive, heads-up rugby, we’d be a fan of the tactic and enjoy both Danny Care’s and Ben Youngs’ ability to put pace on the game when they’re really on form, and we’d be hesitant to overly criticise Youngs for his effort on Saturday. England have bigger problems, primarily that they don’t appear to know what they are doing – the rumours that Manu will be moved to the wing for the Bok game is mystifying, we aren’t sure in what universe he is a better winger than Charlie Sharples.

Anyway, back to the point at hand – here are some of the more memorable quick taps in recent times:

Best Quick Tap: ROG vs. South Africa, November 2004, Lansdowne Road.  ‘Go and talk to your team’, the ref allegedly told the South African captain John Smit.  So he did.  And while he was delivering the message with his back to the action, the cute hoor ROG tapped, went and got over the tryline for what turned out to be the crucial score.  The Saffers never forgave the apple-cheeked Corkman.

Worst Quick Tap: Peter Stringer vs. England, March 2006, Twickenham.  In a topsy-turvy game, midway through the first half Ireland won a penalty 30 metres out in front of the sticks.  It looked like a welcome three points was about to be bagged, but Strings seemed to spot a mismatch out wide and attempted a tap-and-difficult-cross-kick to the left wing, the sort of thing best left to those who can actually kick the ball.  He overcooked it and it went out of play for a lineout to England.  Ireland eventually won with Shaggy’s famous try.

It’s Only Fiji

‘Only Fiji’ might have been a wash, but at least Ireland looked purposeful and inventive. We suspect less exposure to the coaching staff is a good thing, as it allowed the Ulsters youngsters to do their thang with youthful fearlessness and lack of experience. It’s glib to say we didn’t learn anything – England certainly managed to take things from beating Only Fiji a week ago by less than we did with their full team – but it certainly was less than ideal.

Ireland would have loved a more testing run out to be able to infer a little more into their young team’s performances, but they got what they deserved in one sense – the IRFU’s lamentable decision not to hand out caps for the game was at least partly responsible for Fiji’s decision to take a night off tackling. Another major factor for the opposition, and it’s hard to know how any squad would react, was the untimely passing of one of their members -no doubt the tragic death of Maleli Kunavore was on their minds.

Still, the sight of a natural wing (Craig Gilroy) was exciting on a visceral level. In recent years, Ireland have made a habit of making wings out of centres – Shane Horgan, Luke Fitzgerald and Andrew Trimble for example (Dorce made the opposite journey) – and it’s refreshing to see a born winger in full flight. When you see the silky running and nimble footwork of a genuine wing, you feel your heartrate quickening – think Vinny Clark or Bryan Habana in full flight. Gilroy did enough to push Trimble hard for his slot for the Pumas game.  Given Trimble’s more limited, power-based game, it can only be a matter of time before he finds his Ulster shirt under threat as well.

The biggest loser of the night was, oddly, the other winger, Ferg.  He played well and scored two tries, but in comparison to Gilroy, he looked like what he is – a centre playing out of position. Plus, not only did Gilroy look a better wing, but they way Luke Marshall settled effortlessly in to the scene was another flashing light. Both McFadden and Marshall will likely displace Dorce and PWal in their favoured 12 shirt at the same time at provincial level, but Marshall showed he is a long-term threat to Ferg’s presumed succession to Dorce in green.

Continuing on the Ulster theme., Paddy Jackson did enough to warrant a bench slot against the Pumas – he is a natural talent and chose the right option nearly all the time. The only pity is that his placekicking ran awry after such a confident start.  There is little value in persisting with a tired and disinterested ROG – it may come down to just how cross management are with him for his careless kick-away against South Africa.

On the down side, it was predictable disappointing to see Fiji reverting to dirty high and late tackles (and ball-squeezing) when things weren’t going their way – the tip tackle on Murray could have been disastrous had he not got his hand down and the late hit on Paddy Jackson was horrible. There was quite a bit of niggle in the game at the end, and it would have been disappointing to see a red card flashed… but not surprising.

Also, the actions of the tiny, but vocal, militant minority in booing Jamie Heaslip off the field was needless, small-minded and a timely reminder of the nasty inter-provincial bitterness still bubbling beneath the surface in Ireland. These people do not represent anyone but themselves, and the reaction of the vast majority of fans was warm and proud.  Besides, Heaslip’s skill in putting McFadden away for the first try of the second half showcased his great ability, while his breakdown work was excellent as usual.  He’d a good night as captain.  Next up, Fernandez Lobbe.

Finally, there was some grumbling on Twitter about Ulster fans’ somewhat parochial take on the game.  On this occasion, we [this is the Leinster half of WoC writing this paragraph] can forgive them a somewhat one-eyed view.  Up north there is a strong sense that Ulster’s revival has not been recognised by the national team management, and whether coinidentally or not, a number of their best players persistently come out the wrong side of marginal selection calls against Munster players (think Dan Tuohy, Chris Henry, Paul Marshall, Darren Cave, Craig Gilroy and latterly Tom Court).   It’s been a while since they could celebrate a good Irish performance with so many of their home grown players in the XV (8 by the final whistle) – a little over-exuberance is understandable!

Talking Bout My Generation! (and Donncha)

As should be custom by now, Deccie delighted and infuriated, mostly in equal measure this time. For all the excitement and anticipation of the young Ulster backs, there is a Donncha O’Callaghan starting for Ireland – again!

The team for Ireland, or the Ireland XV if you don’t want to piss off Aviva, is young and largely untainted by the type of trundling dross mostly served up in green for the last 2 years – the hope is that the 10-12-13 don’t listen to their coaches and play as they would for Ulster. It’s a pity Paul Marshall wasn’t picked as well – it’s difficult to see why Murray was preferred, particularly as he is likely to start against the Pumas, and we have loads of 9s.

Paddy Jackson, Luke Marshall and Craig Gilroy all make their debuts, and they could all concievably go to the next 3 World Cups – the future is now, and it brings to 4 the number of young Ulster debutants in this series – due credit to Deccie here.

The front row contains Mike Ross, which is a risk – we saw what happened in Twickers if he gets crocked, and this isn’t exactly the World Cup final. Perhaps Michael Bent just isn’t fit enough for 80 minutes of international rugger, but he’s surely able for 50 against a cobbled-together team ranked way below us? Dave Kilcoyne will make his first start – he’s held up manfully against more powerful opponents in this years HEC, hopefully he goes well.

NWJMB continues his meteoric rise and gets his first start for Ireland – he’s joined in the pack by the hugely-deserving John Muldoon (you’d expect Henry to come back in next week), captain Jamie, Dan Tuohy and … Donncha O’Callaghan. It’s mysterious how DOC hasn’t been thanked for his service and packed up – at this stage of his career, he doesn’t bring much to the table, not even leadership qualities – recall how Devin Toner had to call the lineouts on his debut. Expect Dan Tuohy to be the far more visible second row, as he has been at HEC level for a very long time now.

Ironically, the more experimental the side is, the more confident you’d be of them playing well, as they have had less time with Ireland’s concrete coaching team to get the spontaneity coached out of them. Fiji got caned in Twickers, and anything less than a comfortable win with a few tries (we have only 2 since the Scotland game) will be a disappointment – but we think we’re going to go well.

The team in full:

D Hurley; F McFadden, D Cave, L Marshall, C Gilroy; P Jackson, C Murray; D Kilcoyne, S Cronin, M Ross, D O’Callaghan, D Tuohy, I Henderson, J Muldoon, J Heaslip

R Strauss, C Healy, M Bent, D Ryan, C Henry, P Marshall, J Sexton, S Zebo