Joe Schmidt named his first proper squad yesterday and, as usual with these things, it was hard to infer much from the panel, with the big decisions being made closer to the matches themselves.  As always, it was a case of trying to recognise who wasn’t there that might be considered unlucky, and trying to map these to a narrative.

David Kilcoyne – loosehead is more or less locked up by Cian Healy, but the role of first reserve is very much open.  Kilcoyne won rave reviews (slightly overboard in our opinion) last season and forced himself into contention but has had a subdued start this campaign, and was notably lacklustre in the Edinburgh defeat.  His starting place at Munster could even be under threat from the explosive James Cronin.  Jack McGrath is preferred and it’s a form call which is good news, while the Is Tom Court In Or Out Of Favour This Week—o-meter’s dial has once again taken a huge swing, this time to the ‘Yes’ side.

Andrew Trimble – his abysmal showing against Leicester can’t have helped his chances but he improved in Montpellier and scored a try.  Nonetheless, it’s starting to feel that for all Trimble’s obvious qualities he has never really imposed himself at test level in spite of getting plenty of chances.

Luke Fitzgerald & Craig Gilroy – neither are listed as injured, but both are coming back from injuries.  One suspects that these are both on Schimdt’s radar and if they can prove their match-fitness over the coming fortnight they will be brought in.  Ireland could certainly do with them.  With Simon Zebo injured, the back three options lack a little pizazz, and both these two would provide a bit of – Gerry Thornley moment – an X-factor.  Put it another way: Dave Kearney and the Kildare Lewis Moody will not put the frighteners up any of the southern hemisphere sides.  The good news for Schmidt is that Keith Earls is playing like a dervish and has the look of a man making up for lost time after last year’s disastrous campaign.

Kieran Marmion & Paul Marshall – these two constitute the chasing pack trying to oust the older hands Isaac Boss and Eoin Reddan.  Those hoping for a progressive selection from Schmidt are entitled to be disappointed that Marmion hasn’t been picked, while Paul Marshall looks set to be one of those players who falls just short of test level despite being a good provincial player.  Besides, Isaac Boss and Eoin Reddan are not done yet.  Boss has been in very good form for Leinster this season, and while Kidney never wanted much to do with him, it was always likely that Schmidt would see him as an option.  Eoin Reddan showed his first glimpse of good form since an awful injury at the weekend, and remains the best option to change things up if Murray has an off day.

Donncha O’Callaghan – second row is the area most affected by injury, with Donnacha Ryan and Iain Henderson both out of the series.  It’s a dire loss.  We suspect they’d both have been in the 23, so it leaves a couple of test spots up for grabs.  Mike McCarthy would be the obvious choice, but he looks palpably unfit for Leinster.  Devin Toner is the form option and is having a brilliant season, but isn’t a good dovetail for Paulie.  It leaves Dan Tuohy looking like a possible wildcard.  After some fairly ordinary performances last year, his return to his most abrasive form against Montpellier looks timely indeed.  Given the paucity of outstanding options, Donncha O’Callaghan can count himself unlucky.

Elsewhere there was good news for Connacht’s Robbie Henshaw, who made the cut.  Seen by many as a future 13, he’s most likely in the squad to provide back-up to Rob Kearney, who is the only other full-back selected.  In the backrow Kevin McLaughlin is rewarded for his good form.  He’s another player who Kidney never rated especially highly, but has always been a firm favourite of Joe Schmidt, especially in away games.  Finally, James Coughlin makes the cut in what looks a somewhat curious selection, despite our longstanding admiration for him.  Having been demoted to the bench against Gloucester and had to watch Peter O’Mahony’s man of the match performance, it appears his career may be about to start winding down.  The time to pick him was surely two years ago when he was playing out of his skin.  Roger Wilson – another whose form this campaign bears little relation to last year – would have been a better pick, but it should be immaterial.  Heaslip will start and should anything happen to him – it never does, though – Peter O’Mahony should be the first line of cover.

The way the fixtures lie leaves little room for experimentation.  The Samoa match would be the obvious one to rotate in a few new faces, but because it comes first it’ll probably be treated as a dry run for the following games.  Besides, Samoa these days cannot be treated as a second-grade test.

A test team of Healy, Best, Ross, Tuohy, O’Connell, O’Mahony, O’Brien, Heaslip, Murray, Sexton, Earls, Marshall, O’Driscoll, Bowe and Rob Kearney looks likely.  The personnel will be familiar, but the acid test will be whether Joe Schmidt can transfer the same sort of gameplan that worked so well at Leinster to test level.  A fan of repetition until moves are ingrained in the muscle memory, his challenge is a lack of time with the players.  Under Kidney, at times it was impossible to work out what they were trying to do, so just getting the team a playing identity will be a starting point.  Schmidt’s Leinster were also notable for looking like they were having fun – all smiles and laughs at try time (except for His Royal Crankiness at 10 of course).  Ireland looked weary and woebegone in Kidney’s latter seasons, so injecting some energy and adventure will be something Schmidt should be well able to do.  Everyone who has worked with him has spoken of learning new things on a daily basis.  The only way is up.

The filthy cheating Celtalians with their uncompetitive cheating league might be facing financial oblivion at the hands of the man who paid Beaver to eat out in Bath, but the competition itself is beginning to boil up nicely – the big three Irish provinces are up near the top of the table, and, as Joe Schmidt will be happy about, his big guns are successfully being incorporated into his arsenals.

His squad members (the 23, not the tackle bag-holding 40+ he has named) who are back in the groove looked in pretty good nick.  Dare we start to become optimistic about an international rugby season for the first time in a long time?

At the Oar Dee Esh, some bloke called Brian came back and looked classy and assuredly assured – this might be Schmidt’s only season with Drico in green, and the succession will be difficult to manage (since he can’t play the strongest candidate until next September), but he’s going to be a key man. Jamie Heaslip looked good for Leinster too, and Ian Madigan finally got some good game-time at outhalf – Le Johnny will be Schmidt’s clear number one, but good backup is critical in such a pivotal position, especially if Johnny arrives at the Six Nations fatigued and at risk of injury.

As good as Paddy Jackson did with ball in hand, and as much-improved as his tactical kicking was, Ireland simply cannot carry a place-kicker with a 60% record – the margins at international level are too small. Inside PJ, Paul Marshall looks snappy and buzzes around eagerly – Conor Murray is far and away the best scrum-half in Ireland (and possibly further afield) but Marshall looks the best impact option from the bench. Then outside PJ, Luke Marshall is not only back and healthy, but is purring like a Rolls-Royce – he said after the Treviso game Ulster were just getting out of third gear, and if he can improve on how he is playing, he will walk back into the green 12 shirt. Where this leaves Stuart Olding and Paddy Wallace is another question – but that’s for Anscombe.

Rory Best finished last season a shadow of the player he has been, but Ulster’s scrum and, crucially, lineout have been strong – and NWJMB has been playing in the second row. Ireland haven’t had a man in that position who can beat defenders and pass the ball since …. *wracks brains* Davy Tweed? Joke. Obviously. We think ever. Donnahca Ryan and Mike McCarthy represent the competition.  Ryan apepared to be playing hurt for much of last season and lost his mojo, but his aggression will be invaluable if he can rediscover his best form.

Further back, Chris Henry got knacked last year just when Deccie could have done with him, but he’s going to an option for Ireland.  As is the incumbent openside, O’Mahony, with his elusive running and passing skills, looks a far more natural number 8 (and much-needed competition for that jumper) but he started at 6 for Munster, and as captain. He led well, scored a try (and was brave and never took a backward step © Irish Time sports staff) and will be a really important player for his province this season. Schmidt has never shied away from picking O’Brien at seven, so playing on the blindside needn’t hinder O’Mahony’s chances of holding his starting shirt for Ireland.

Even more encouraging for Schmidt was the sight of Paul O’Connell toddling on for the last 20 minutes – the Munster and Ireland packs are much more effective with the ginger giant in situ – he will be needed if Ireland are to win any of their November games. The prospect of POC and Ian Henderson lining out together for Ireland has us drooling.

With Tommy Bowe, Bob and DJ Church also getting starts, and Conor Murray expected to be available for the MMA game next week, Schmidt will be happy how his starters are shaping up. If SOB and Flogged Mike Ross limber on in the same game (and limber off naturally), the milky bar kid will be smiling from ear to ear.  Maybe Mike Ross will try and have another cut at beating his man on the outside – what could possib-li go wrong?

Now – let’s have nobody get injured between now and November.

The first order of business for Joe Schmidt’s new job as The Messiah is to consult with Les Kiss to pick a squad for the tour of North America. Kiss will be taking the tour, but expect Schmidt’s stamp to be on the squad.  He’ll be without his nine Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiions, all of whom would be guaranteed starters in a first-choice Ireland team. Co-incidentally, Ireland toured North America four years ago when the Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiions were in South Africa – they took a backline full of Ians, none of whom knew all the four verses of Ireland’s Call that were rolled out in Thunderbird Stadium – the Canadian announcers were mystified, eh, when the small band of travelling support didn’t join in the anthem.

In terms of squad development, the tour was pretty pointless – Micko and Biiiiiiig Bob Casey kept Ryan Caldwell on the bench, and only Darren Cave of the backs is even close to pushing for international selection four years on. Rory Best captained the tour, in which Mike Ross made his debut, but Ross was famously not seen again until all other props were deemed useless.

This time out, we expect St. Joe and Les ‘Last Chance’ Kiss to be a little more progressive than that – Ireland have had conservative selectors for over a decade, and we fully expect greater variety in selection for the next 2.5 years (and more hopefully). There’s also a touring group, described variously as emerging, or developmental, heading to a quadrangular tournament in Georgia (the other competing nations are Uruguay and the Emerging Springboks).  Here are a few thing we want to see from Joseph and his Technicolour Backline Playbook:

Leave Mike Ross at home: Rosser is Ireland’s best prop by a million miles, but he’s also big and has played lots of rugby over the last 24 months, most famously having to prove himself in a gunfight against Fiji in November. Ireland know exactly what Ross brings, and, in the long run, would fare better letting him rest. Stephen Archer, while not even close to the level required for a test prop, should get a chance, and if Declan Fitzpatrick can stand without the aid of a lean-to, he should also tour.  Off to Georgia goes Ricky Lutton, who has impressed in the last few months and see how he swims against the Georgian brutes. On the bench, why not throw one of the Leinster tyros, Martin Mooreadze or Tadgh Furlong.

I’ve seen the future and it’s NWJMB: Iain Henderson will be in this Ireland team for a very very long time. At Ulster, he has been used on the blindside, where they need him, but ultimately he seems destined to be win many test caps as a second row, but his carrying and ball skills look like they could add a new dimension to a line where Ireland have historically looked to (unseen) work horses. Despite Hendo’s inability to get Johann Muller out of the Ulster side, Schmidt should play him in his long-term position and see how he goes.

Rory Best gets a rest: Besty is another who should get the summer off to put his feet up and look after his prize cow.  It’s been a long season for him, and there are no less than three high quality players in the queue who would benefit from the experience: Richardt Strauss, Sean Cronin and Mike Sherry.  Heck, there might not even be room for all three in the touring party.

It’s Maddog Time: Refusing to pick Ian Madigan was the last great folly of the previous regime, it’s hard to see Joe Schmidt doing anything other than selecting the Leinster player of the year at 10.  High on confidence and full of running, his graduation to international rugby begins properly here.  Pairing him with Ulster’s Paul Marshall would be exciting and plenty of fun to watch. Paddy Jackon can start the other game – the audition for the role of understudying Sexton starts here.

Ulster centres get their moment.  With D’arcy injured and Luke Marshall being allowed to rest his weary head, it might be worth a look at the Olding-Cave partnership in the centres.  Stuart Olding is barely established, but looks set to start in a final next weekend, and is clearly in it for the long haul.  In the back three, the Munster-via-Leinsters Andrew Conway and Felix Jones have finished the season strongly and are worth bringing alongside semi-established fastmen Simon Zebo and Craig Gilroy.  If nothing else, the back three would be lethally quick.

So that’s what a Genuine Openside (TM) looks like.  We’ve heard about them, we’ve seen old black and white pictures of them, now we might be about to see one in the flesh.  Yes, hopefully George Hook will be able to contain hmself, because Ireland should be starting these games with a Genuine Openside.  Neither of the previous two coaches had much interest in a linking player / breakdown specialist in the team, relying on the likes of Brian O’Driscoll, Sean O’Brien, Peter O’Mahony and Jamie Heaslip to perform the role between them.  But Tommy O’Donnell was the surprise package of the season, at times sensational for Munster, and his integration to test rugby should begin here.  The last few weeks have shown that Jamie Heaslip still has the ball-carrying ballast when he plays in a more conventionally structured backrow.  Ireland haven’t gotten far with their confusing mix of 6.5s and an 8 playing like a 6.67 (or something), so at least investigating how we can utilise a linking player in the backrow should be top of Joe’s to-do list.  Perhaps this will be the start of something wonderful.

Donnacha Ryan as Tour Captain

With most of the leadership corp on Lions duty, the opportunity is available to give Donnacha Ryan a shot at leading the troops.  By all accounts he’s well regarded by his team-mates and should settle comfortably into the role.