All posts in category HEC

Ulster says… Maybe

After last Friday’s wonderful display in Ravenhill, Ulster have 19 points, and are sitting pretty on top of their pool. However, with a trip to the daunting Stade Marcel Michelin to come, where the home side have won 38 on the spin, they aren’t too confident of finishing there.
To rub salt into the wound, the Brethren, despite being the best runner-up to the tune of two points over Embra and three over Quins, appear to be outsiders to reach the last eight, as home games to London Samoa and away games to Connacht are slightly easier to navigate than away to the Bananamen.
However, given we are Maths nerds, and measure our self-worth in Fields Medals and not girlfriends, we’re going to try and quantify exactly how likely they are to become the third Irish province in Sunday’s semi-final draw, which will see Saracens get the home semi-final they need to guarantee a Twickers sell-out in May.
There are 4 ways Ulster can make it:
1.       Beating Clermont
2.       Losing by <7 with Quins not scoring 4 tries
3.       Losing by <5 and scoring same amount of tries as Clermont
4.       One or more of Toulouse, Quins, Cardiff and Embra losing
Options 2 and 3 are too hard to work out, and pretty unlikely anyway, so lets concentrate on 1 and 4.
Beating Clermont: According to the bookies, who are generally right, Clermont have an 85% chance of winning the game. This seems absurdly generous to us, so we are going to bump it up to 95%, and put some sneaky money on Les Jaunards to help heal the pain of the inevitable thumping. So Ulster have a 5% chance of winning.
One or more of Toulouse, Quins, Cardiff and Embra losing: This is easier to work out – unless all 4 win, Ulster are through. Therefore the probability of Ulster going through down this route is [ 1 – the probability of all 4 winning ].
Again, using the bookies as a benchmark, the probabilities of winning are as follows:
·         Toulouse (A Gloucester) – 70%
·         Quins (A Connacht) – 79%
·         Cardiff (H Racing Metro) – 90%
·         Embra (H London Samoa) – 83%
These all look reasonable, except the theory that Toulouse are most likely to choke. Toulouse tend to chug along in third gear for most of the pool stages, but rest assured they will crank it up if they need to. Let us bump that up to 90%.
So the probability of all 4 winning (assuming independence, for all you pedants out there) is  [90% * 79% * 90% * 83% ] = 53%. Therefore, Ulster have a 47% chance of qualifying, no matter what happens in France.
Taking into account that all 4 games could go against them, but they could win in Clermont, which has a probability of [ 5% * 53% ] = 3%. So, Ulster’s total chance of qualifying is … 50%! Given that Options 2 and 3 must have some positive value, we make Ulster slightly better than 50-50 to go through.  Hooray!  You heard it here first!  But still, talk about being on a knife edge.  The moral of the story is that it’s better to have the points in the bag than have a nerve-shredding must-win-or-lose-by-less-than-five-with-equal-tries game.
Let keep our fingers crossed that Disraeli’s nonsense about statistics doesn’t get proven right. Again.
by whiffofcordite on January 19, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Nerdish Leanings, Probabilities and Bookies Odds, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 19, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/01/19/ulster-says-maybe/

Heineken Cup Round Five

Whiff of Cordite went on its second trip of the season this weekend – a swift eight-hour round trip to Belfast.  It was Leinsterman Palla Ovale’s first proper Ravenhill experience (Ireland A v Tonga doesn’t really count).  Talk about timing – the old ground heaved as Ulster racked up a wonderful four-try victory that keeps them in the hunt.  The highlight was the three fans behind us who with, as typical Nordies, refused to get carried away when Palla began to laud the Ulster display, responding ‘Aye, but Leicester are sh*te!’.  Here’s our Good Week/Bad Week, and where else to start but at Ravenhill.

Good week

Shtand up for the Ul-[whistle]-termen:
The standout performance of the weekend – Ulster absolutely smashed Leicester, dominating the collisions and set-piece and leaving England’s most storied team of the professional era a leaderless rabble by full-time. The tone was set by an immense hit by Fez on Agulla to prevent a Tigers try early on, and the ferocious work never stopped. Once the ball made it to the piano players, they did the business as well – even PedrieWannenbosh had two gorgeous try-making offloads. The pity is that they probably won’t qualify – the lost bonus point in

Welford Road

might prove crucial. True, they will make it if one of Toulouse, Quins, Embra or Cardiff slip up, but that is still odds against. Mind you, stranger things have happened, and better to have one in the hand then to need a win in Galway when you are playing sh!te…

When Eric eats a banana, he turns into…
Bananaman!  If you closed your eyes slightly, you would have though fifteen Erics were playing on Saturday morning. Egg Chaser was enjoying a leisurely lunch with the family when he decided to check the latest score from the Zaffanella on the off-chance there would be a shock. Errr … no. It was 47-0 at half–time. Then the Erics added another 35 in the second half for a grand total of 82 points and 12 tries. Okay, it was only Aironi. But still.  Aironi beat Biarritz last year, and gave Leicester a pretty uncomfortable time of it this year.  They have home wins against Embra, Treviso and Connacht in the AAALeague and gave Cardiff and Ulster some heart-in-mouth moments. Sure, they are bunnies, and they target matches (Munster, 12th of February, watch your backs), but they are improving – they are certainly not an 82-0 team. If Clermont get 4 more tries and win on Saturday, they will likely have a home quarter final, and from there, anything can happen. Ask Eric.
Send Them Homewards tae the Knockout Stages
Scottish rugby has been in the doldrums for so long, you sometimes forget the positives. They have some decent back-row forwards, they should have won the Triple Crown in 2010, and they will soon have HupHupTim Visher. But they have loads of negatives. Glasgow have no history of rugby and struggle to get the deposit back from Partick Thistle Nil and are losing Richie Gray to Sale (Sale!).Embra do well to pack 10% of Murrayfield on a weekly basis. So with those handicaps, its great to see Embra show such bronca – 2 last minute away wins, and a 30 point comeback in this group –its the stuff quarter-finals are made of. If they beat London Samoa at home, they are in. Given they might make it at the expense of Ulster, it’s a stretch to say we will be cheering them on, but no-one could begrudge them, and Scottish rugby, their day in the sun.

Bad Week

Peter Stringer and the Wobbly Kick

There could hardly be much more goodwill towards Peter Stringer – we were in a Bath pub full of travelling Leinster fans who loudly cheered his debut appearance against Ospreys.  What a pity to see his kick charged down, resulting in a Biarritz try on Sunday.  His boot out of play to secure the win also went at a strangely low trajectory – it would have been funny-painful to see Ngwenya catch it on the full and gallop in for a winning try.  Things have gone well for Strings up til now – he’ll put this one behind him.

Biarritz and Leicester – All Pedigree and no Trousers

Pedigree is often argued to be the crucial ingredient in the Heineken Cup – it’s what digs Munster out of tight spots and gets Toulouse through the group stages without breaking a sweat.  Biarritz and Leicester have it in spades, but it will only get you so far.  Both are a pale shadow of fomer sides.  Biarritz were never the most watchable of teams, but the forward power that used to intimidate is no longer there.  Leicester became a rabble on Friday night.  They are admittedly beset by injuries, but they don’t appear particularly strong in any unit.  Castro is no longer the force of old, and the backrow was anonymous on Friday, smashed to pieces at the breakdown.  12×3 had a meltdown, and Ben Youngs is starting to look a bit overrated.  Both these teams will be focussing on domestic affairs for the rest of the season.

Stuart Barnes Has Something to Say

Oooooohhh Barnesy, what a week!  Darren Cave took him on in his Sunday Times interview (questioning his pick of Leicester as among the favourites), and came out on top.  After the Friday debacle, he made an extraordinary admission: that the Rabo Pro12 is better, and quicker, than the Premiership.  The Premiership Sky Hype, the perennial excuse that the powder-puff Rabo gives the Celtic sides an unfair advantage – all gone in a flash.  You half expected the producer to get in his ear and make him recant.

by whiffofcordite on January 16, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Biarritz, Clermont Auvergne, Edinburgh, HEC, Leicester, Oooooooohhh, Peter Stringer, Stuart Barnes, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 16, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/01/16/heineken-cup-round-five/

Beware of Inflating Bubbles

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After Leinster put seven tries on Bath at Lansdowne Road, one radio reporter mentioned that he’d overheard a fan in Kiely’s say ‘They might as well give us the Cup now.’  The bookies have anointed Leinster as probable HEC winners and, in end of year  predictions bloggers and commentators queued up to forecast another Leinster HEC win, with several throwing in a Rabo Pro12 title for good measure.

Things are certainly looking rosy in the Leinster garden.  In spite of injuries to BOD and Shaggy, they look set to secure a home quarter-final in the Heiny, and are nine points clear in the Pro12.  Jamie Heaslip is looking like his old self and Johnny Sexton is looking Europe’s premier fly-half once more.  Fergus McFadden and Eoin O’Malley have pitched in at centre to good effect and the return to fitness of Rob Kearney and to form of LukeFitz have partially offset the backline injuries. 

They can afford to mix up their team according to their opponent, playing a vdMerwe-Browne-McLoughlin-Boss axis for physical away days, and unleashing Church-Toner-Jennings-Reddan at home when they look to play at lightning speed.  Their success is generally built on a high tempo attack and in particular phenomenal aggression at the breakdown, where the likes of Heaslip, Healy and Jennings hurl their bodies into the wreckage to continually generate quick ball.  Even when they butcher all their try opportunities (Bath away) or just play rubbish (Connacht away), they still seem to find a way of winning.

It’s all enough to make this Leinster fan decidedly nervous.  There are umpteen reasons to be cautious.  Firstly, it needs to be borne in mind that the Heineken Cup is a strange competition in many ways, not least its bitty, broken structure.  Once the home quarter-final is secured, the team breaks up for a whole Six Nations.  Who knows how the players will return?  Will Sexton be in the same frame of mind?  Will Ireland’s cumbersome attacking patterns need to be coached out of the players’ systems?  Who’ll be injured?  It’s like qualifying for an entirely different competition.
For another, there’s the all-important (too important to be truthful) semi-final draw.  Leinster, good as they are, would still travel to Clermont or Toulouse as second favourites, and a trip to Saracens would be something of a coin toss.  As champions, they are there to be shot at, and the historical difficulty of retaining the Cup is so well established we need not dwell on it.

It’s also important to note that the Heineken Cup isn’t necessarily, or even all that often, won by the best team, but that which can continually stay alive.  Once you enter the spring, it’s a knockout competition, in which you’re always one game from going out.  Leinster were superb from start to finish last year, and deservedly took the spoils, but it doesn’t always work out that way.  It may be more instructive to look at their 2009 victory, when they were dismal for at least half the group stage, and decidedly fortunate to emerge victorious from a freakish quarter-final against Harlequins. Leinster would also do well to remind themselves of what fate befell Munster that season.  For it was they, at the time, who appeared unbeatable.  After the twin peaks of the 22-5 win over Leinster and the 39-6 thrashing of the Ospreys, back-to-back Heineken Cups seemed inevitable.

Such performances can paper over the cracks a little.  Munster looked flawless at the time, but Michael Cheika recognised that neither of their centres were distributors and ruthlessly exposed them.  Similarly, Leinster have a glaring weakness in the second row, which has yet to be properly tested.  Nathan Hines’ importance to last years’ team is well documented – on top of that, Leo Cullen appears to be in decline.  Devin Toner has improved immeasurably, but will it be enough against a Toulouse or a Clermont (hello again Nathan!)? And don’t forget he is still playing second fiddle to Damian Browne (it feels like we should emphasise his name somehow, but that wouldn’t be entirely fair) on away-days.

Joe Schmidt is an outstanding coach, but this year he has another aspect of the game to manage: expectations.  He must do his utmost to ensure that the warm, fuzzy feeling emanating from the stands doesn’t impact too much on the players’ mindset.  If he can do that, and Leinster do land back-to-back Heineken Cups, their third in four years, with the Pro12 to boot, then we can declare them even better than the great Munster, Wasps, Leicester and Toulouse sides of the professional era.  But not before.
by whiffofcordite on January 12, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 12, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/01/12/beware-of-inflating-bubbles/

Mystic Egg (Chasing)

Predicting the winner of the HEC from the off is folly, given the importance of home advantage in the knock-out stages. For example, Northampton rode a powder puff 6-0 pool last year to advance all the way to the final via home games with Ulster and Perpignan.

At least the Saints earned a home quarter – the semis are literally a lottery. Of the last 4 semi-finals, arguably all would have gone the other way if played in the oppositions “home” venue. So, even at this stage, it’s something of a fools errand, but sure, let’s crank up the crystal ball anyway.

Pool 1

What to say? Munster are the only team left that are 4 from 4, but they have been pretty poor by their own standards. It’s arguable that without Paulie and Rog (and better kicking coaches at opposition teams), they could be 0 from 4. They just know how to get over the line. We think they will beat a disinterested Castres and probably secure a bonus point, but lose in Franklins Gardens. Saints may be out, but they’ll be up for that game.  Scarlets should win twice, but with no extras. We think it’s:
Munster 22
Scarlets 19

Pool 2

The Group of Dearth at the start, but it’s shaping up to be a very interesting finish, thanks to the rejuvenation of Scottish “club” rugby (more of which anon). Tim Visser has Embra have done well to get three wins, but one of those was in rather farcical circumstances. It’s one thing to beat Racing 95-94 at home, but winning away? Nah. We fancy Cardiff to go to Fortress Reading and come away with a win, and then hockey Racing in the last game.
Cardiff 22
Embra 17

Pool 3

Its been all Leinster so far. As expected, a tough opener, but afterwards they have had it more or less their own way, opening a serious can of whoooooooooooooooooooohhhp-ass on Bath at the weekend. Glasgae have been nothing if not brave, helped in their second-chasing endeavours by Montpellier giving up. Leinster should get 9 more points roysh, and a home win and a losing bp in Beautiful Bath will get Glasgae second place, but no cigar.
Leinster 25
Glasgae 15

Pool 4

Tighter than the proverbial Kiwi duck’s butt – and as expected, it’s going to come down to bonus points. On that score, Clermont are in control – Leicester “lost” one away to Aironi and in Clermont, and Ulster lost one in Leicester. Ulster will come away empty handed from the Michelin, and will probably get their hoops handed to them as well. If they beat Leicester by more than 7 at home, second is theirs, but even if Marshall and Pienaar are the halves, Leicester are dogs and know how to tough it out.
Clermont 21
Leicester 18 (ahead of Ulster on head to head)
Ulster 18

Pool 5

Sarries have done some very hard work with a tough win in Osprey-land, but with Biarritz having picked up 4 bonus points so far, they still need to beat them and possibly Treviso away to ensure passage. They will do both, very narrowly, and progress. Biarritz will get 6 more points.
Saracens 23
Biarritz 18

Pool 6

Quins threw the tournament wide open (and forced Gerry to praise English rugby, albeit between gritted teeth) by winning in the toughest club venue in Europe (except the Aviva? Discuss). Still, Toulouse are in the saddle here, they should swat Connacht aside and although not a fait accomplis, they should win in Gloucester to go through as winners. Quins will beat Gloucester, possibly with a bonus point, and should win in Galway without one.
Toulouse 22
Harlequins 21

So, we have the eight quarter-finalists ranked as follows, bearing in mind it will come down to tries scored to seperate ties:


Leinster 25
Saracens 23
Toulouse 22
Munster 22
Cardiff 22
Clermont 21
Harlequins 21
Scarlets 19

Munster are currently two tries ahead of Cardiff – if they get the bonus point against Castres, they should maintain that advantage, but not overtake Toulouse. Amazingly, if the Scarlets slip up, Biarritz are in pole position to take advantage – the nous to scoop up bonus points while playing badly is worth its weight in gold in Europe (Asterisk Miracle Match).

The quarters will then be:
Leinster-Scarlets
Saracens-Harlequins
Toulouse-Clermont
Munster-Cardiff

Four home wins I hear you say? Even predicting this far ahead once the quarter-finalists are decided is fraught with peril – there’s a whole Six Nations in between so things can look very different when the Heiny resumes.  You’d still fancy Leinster to take Scarlets and Munster would most likely have the Mental to grind down Cardiff and should win. Toulouse-Clermont – mouth-watering, Toulouse to edge it. Sarries-Quins will depend on how the sides are motoring at the time in the Premiership … and where their prioirities lie.

Note, our eight quarter-finalists at the beginning were Northampton, Cardiff, Leinster, Clermont, Biarritz, Toulouse, Leicester, Saracens – so if we’re right this time, last time we’ll have called five from eight. Meh.  But, y’know, we’ll probably be wrong again.

by whiffofcordite on December 20, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Get the calculators out, HEC, Oooooooooooohhh

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 20, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/12/20/mystic-egg-chasing/

HEC Round Four – Review

The old cliche is that you can never safely predict too much in the Heineken Cup, and it was reassuring to see that it still holds true this week.  Just when it looked as though most issues were virtually settled with two rounds to go, Quins did the unthinkable and won in Toulouse.  It’s not the first supposedly unbreachable citadel this young side has sacked, and it underlines their credentials as a coming force after they appeared to have been scuppered last week.  Here’s our latest good week/bad week…

Good week


Who else? Quins

A remarkable victory for a remarkable team.  When they lost to Toulouse last week it looked like a case of ‘Welcome to the Big League, chaps’.  To turn it around in Toulouse’s own patch a week on was a feat you simply had to stand and applaud.  This may be a year too early for them to win, but they are a team nobody will fancy playing in the knockout stages, for which they now look set to qualify for, either as winners or as runners-up.  It also underlined the importance of having a world class kicker.  Which brings us on to…

Johnny Sexton

While ROG has been grabbing the headlines with his timely drop-goals, Sexton has been efficiently getting on with the business of playing brilliantly.  He bailed Leinster out in Montpellier, ran the show against Glasgow and then delivered back-to-back man of the match performances against Bath and has racked up 63 points in four games.  On Saturday, he showcased the full range of his talents, and was a dream to watch.

Saracens

In poll position in Pool Five and looking in decent nick having done the double over the Ospreys.  Not the flashiest of teams, but they do have a consistent kicker in Owen Farrell and a belligerant set of forwards, which are two of the basic requirements to qualify as contenders.  Creativity is in short supply, with a somewhat predictable backline (Ooooooohhh Brad Barritt was literally centimetres over the gainline there!), but there’s always Schalk Brits to provide a spark. 

Bad Week


Blind Dave Pearson

Yes, it’s Blind Dave’s second appearance in our Bad Week section, and while his first was for bewildering us with reasoning we couldn’t really understand, this is for one of the single most knuckleheaded decisions in recent times.  You know the one, the blatantly obvious Scarlets try that he just walked away from and went back to give them an attacking scrum.  Had they not scored from said scrum, there would have been serious questions asked.  It was a bizarre moment.

Tomas O’Leary

Lordy.  Tomas had actually impressed a little on his recent cameos but this was back to the 2010/11 vintage.  Munster were totally in control until he came on, and promptly fell on to the back foot.  At one stage, his back-and-across crabbing saw him trapped metres behind the gainline and a penalty followed.  He was then extrmely lucky when his ill-judged grubber went out to touch off a Scarlets boot late in the match. 

Connacht

How much heartbreak can a team take?  Strangely, Connacht have saved their best performances for away matches in the competition, and were five minutes from a famous victory over Gloucester until nothing so complicated as a missed first-up tackle let in a late try.  It must be hard to take for a fanbase that so seldom has anything to cheer.  Connacht are the anti-Munster – a team that simply doesn’t know how to win.

by whiffofcordite on December 18, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Connacht, Dave Pearson, Harlequins, HEC, Jonny Sexton, Leinster, Munster, Saracens, Tomas O'Leary

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 18, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/12/18/hec-round-four-review/

Tour Diary: Bath

Saturday: Morning and Afternoon

Egg, Palla and their better halves made their way across a snowy Belfast to the airport for the first flight to Bristol. In spite of the best efforts of the Hitlers (our clear plastic bags containing toileteries were the wrong size. Seriously) and the “restaurant” (Palla’s sausages were nothing short of vile) we made it across the Irish Sea.


Bags were dropped off at the Linton Travel Tavern Holiday Inn Express and the train to Lahn was merrily boarded. One stop later, twas Beautiful Bath. After a stroll around the Christmas market, collecting 4 currywurst, 1 cheese board and a mental list for Sunday; we chanced upon the Thermae Spa. After enquiring if Barnesy had checked in yet (“Who?”), we joined the beautiful people of Bath in the rooftop pool – a most excellent way to while away 2 hours.


Saturday: Evening and Night

Next stop was the outside of the Pig and Fiddle for the Munster match and a rendez-vous with Egg Spoon, Egg Cup, Miss Egg Cup and Tackle Bag. One Radge masterclass (TM) later, and we retired to the inside of the Pig and Fiddle for Sarries-Ospreys. Well, it was a rugby weekend after all…

By this stage, all were drooling over the prospect of a venison burger at Gascoyne Place – a pang not even copious amounts of wine could sate. After checking if Barnesy was eating (“Errrr, no.”), we discovered venison was off, but steak burgers were wolfed down with gay abandon. Picking up Ou Cacador and Senyoreta Ou Cacador, we headed towards the Westgate (thanks for the recommendation Stephen), sunk some digestifs (2 x double rum & coke + 2 x double vodka & white for £20 – high fives all round) and practised Samoa tackles.

Sunday: Morning

Fuzzy heads abounded in the am, but it was nothing a Bath Pasty and some coffee couldn’t sort out. A leisurely stroll down to the Rec was next – one of the highlights of the trip. Followed by the real highlight – the Rec itself.

What a ground – character, setting, charm – the place has everything. The match itself was fairly bitty – Leinster tried their best to throw it away, but ultimately Bath didn’t know how to win and Barnesy’s new favourite closed it out.

Sunday: Afternoon and Evening

The remaining highlights of Bath were on the agenda for our post-match stroll – the Circus, Queen Square and the Royal Crescent. Despite the increasingly grim weather, you couldn’t but love the place. The observation that there were 30 houses in the Crescent led us to the only logical conclusion – it was where the Bath squad lived. After knocking on number 10 looking for Beaver, it was back down town for some food.

A much more enjoyable than Saturday stroll around a half-empty Christmas market was next, and some gifts were procured – mostly for Mini Egg and Little Palla – lack-of-contact guilt was kicking in. One train, one automobile and one plane later, it was back to an icy Belfast for the final leg – 4 tired and happy campers slept well on Sunday night!

For the next episode, it’s Dublin this Saturday for Beaver in the Aviva.

by whiffofcordite on December 13, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, No arm smash, Oooooooooh Bath, Stuart Barnes

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 13, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/12/13/tour-diary-bath/

Road Trip Reseach Report

Lovely Bath: we came, we saw, and Leinster did their best not to conquer, but did so in the end, thanks to Johnny’s composure and a good forward effort in the last 10.  But it was nervier than it should have been, and Sean O’Brien will be looking for somewhere to hide in today’s video session.  As for the town itself, suffice to say WoC were in awe of its multitude of wonders – from the setting of the rickety old Rec to the Thermae Baths and Royal Crescent, with many fine eateries and pubs in between, this is up there with the great rugby towns.  Throw in the last weekend of the Christmas Markets and you’ve got the perfect leisurely rugby weekend.  We’ll be back.  On with good week/bad week…
Good week
Munster and BJ Botha
With an aggregate points difference of +8 after three wins, this Munster team is not necessarily dominating opposition, but they know how to come out on the right side of tight fixtures.  Few fancied their massively depleted side to come out on top against a vaunted Scarlets outfit, but thanks largely to the scrummaging of their South African tighthead, and the obligatory Radge ‘masterclass’, they are now three from three and looking at a home quarter final.  They’re back in business.

Treviso

No longer the whipping boys of Europe, Treviso now have a draw and a win in their two home games so far.  Having been desperately unlucky to cough up a late levelling penalty to Ospreys last week, here they held their nerve to slay the ailing Basque club.  What’s most remarkable is that both games have been try-heavy, high-scoring affairs.  Treviso’s desire to expand their game is impressive in and of itself, but it is getting results for them too.  In Tomasso Benvenuti they have an attacking weapon in the backline, but on Saturday they left the scoring to the fatties.
The Big French Clubs

The middle-tier French sides have been indistinguished this year (Racing, Castres, Montpellier, Birritz) but they still provide two of the favourites.  Clermont Auvergne swatted Leicester aside and are firmly in control of their pool, while Toulouse asserted their superiority against a fancied Harlequins.  We were surprised at the bullishness of many English commentators before the game, and Toulouse duly showed Quins the level they need to get to.  They have an ominous look about them.

Bad Week

Rhys Priestland

We’ve been here before.  Mega-hyped young fly-half is deemed set for greatness, only to come up against the wily old master, Radge, and come off distinctly second best.  Erratic from placed ball, where he missed three from five shots at goal, he was moved from the 10 channel when Stephen Jones was brought on to try and get Scarlets back into the game.  He’s still a promising player, but not quite a Lions fly-half just yet. 

Pascal Gauzerre

He being the ref from Sarries v Ospreys.  Some very poor calls indeed, and Ospreys will feel a little hard done by in what was a very entertaining game.  Called back for a non-existant forward pass when they looked to have broken clear, Ospreys conceded a soft try directly from the resulting scrum.  Then, in the second half, we’re still dubious as to whether Chris Wyles grounded the ball for the final Sarries try.  At the very least, Gauzerre should have gone upstairs, but simply awarded the try.

Weeks Five and Six

The double headers falling between the top sides in each group is a double edged sword.  Exciting in Rounds Three and Four of course, but by the last two rounds, many pools will be settled.  Munster, Leinster and Toulouse will be home free, and Sarries, Cardiff and Clermont could join them by winning on the road next week.  There could be uncharacteristically few groups going to the wire.

by whiffofcordite on December 12, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Clermont Auvergne, HEC, Munster, Oooooooooh Bath, Rhys Priestland, Toulouse, Treviso

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 12, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/12/12/road-trip-reseach-report/

Double Trouble

After a brief and extremely entertaining interlude of domestic action – more of Harinordoquy Pere and Saints-Leicester fisticuffs please – the HEC resumes with some mouth-watering double headers to look forward to.

The December home/away trysts tend to remove some of the fog from the HEC – from around 14 mixed contenders, you tend to end up with two teams with home quarter-finals more or less guaranteed, another two with qualification virtually in the bag, and a few teams eliminated from contention, leaving six or so to slog it out for the rest.

Last season, Munster never recovered from two stodgy showings against the Hairsprays, especially as Toulon beat London Samoa twice to take charge of the pool; and Leinster never looked back following two impressive performances to whack and bag Clermont, a team that had all but beaten them on their own patch the previous year.  That Leinster only won the head-to-head by a point underlines that it’s all about coming out on top, no matter how slight the margin.

Remarkably, in every pool, the top two meet back-to-back- the first time this has happened. Any team that does the double can expect to be firmly in the driving seat for qualification as a result, and a points split among the front runners could let one of the stragglers regain some initiative. So, what do we foresee?

Pool 1: We think a horrendous injury list in the back division is going to make a losing bp very hard to come by for Munster in Llanelli, and a winning one all but impossible the following week. Strangely, aloof and cranky though he is, Munster’s bete noir Romain Poite may come to their rescue here.  They might get an edge come scrum time and they’ll hardly be writing letters of complaint if the ruck area is slow and messy.  5-5 looks a safe bet, probably putting the Scarlets in poll position. If Castres give up completely, 9 points is possible for the Saints – and with a home game against Munster to come, they may not be dead yet.
Head-to-head cliche to avoid: ‘You write Munster off at your peril.’

Pool 2: We like Cardiff, but Embra have shown mightily impressive fortitude so far – there might be a trade of home wins here, and the prospect of a Scottish side being alive in January for the first time in forever. We’ll guess 5-5. The other two are gone we reckon, although Racing have three bps racked up already, so if they are interested, they might stay in contention by doing “Irish” twice.
Head-to-head cliche to avoid: ‘Cardiff are riding the crest of Wales’ newfound positivity.’

Pool 3: Our away trip to Oooooooooooooooohh Bath with our better halves is causing huge excitement in Cordite Mansions. The Rec is a great ground, but hardly Fort Knox – anything but two wins for Leinster will be a surprise. The pool will be all but won by then, leaving the other three to fight out over an Amlin slot.
Head-to-head cliche to avoid: ‘Oooohh, Bath will simply run it from anywhere.’

Pool 4: Leicester are top, but Clermont are in the driving seat. Clermont thrashed Leicester at home a few years ago, going 40 points up after 50 minutes (and nearly giving away two bps at the end) and the Tigers are unlikely to get anything from France. Welford Road is a different story, but Leicester aren’t the force of old – you could see a surprise …. 8-1 to Clermont. Ulster, meanwhile, need 10 points from Aironi to make up for the “lost” bp in Leicester – and they might only get 9.
Head-to-head cliche to avoid: ‘Welford Road, what an impregnable fortress’

Pool 5: Sarries-Ospreys is the leaders battle, and a model for a 5-5 split, but what Biarritz do might have more bearing on the pool – the hard-fought (literally) win over Bayonne may have kick-started their season, and 10 points would not be a seismic shock, leaving them 1 win away from a quarter-final.
Head-to-head cliche to avoid: ‘Once again, Biarritz have landed a plummy draw. How do they do it?’

Pool 6: Quins are in dreamland this season, but even one win over the mighty Toulouse would be a coup. Toulouse don’t tend to extend themselves in the group stages, but we just can’t see Quins beating them – 8-1 to Toulouse. Connacht really fancy a shock at home to Gloucester, and they might just get it. Rumours of Eric Elwood doing rain dances on Eyre Square are abounding. Revenge might be ugly next week, but Connacht won’t care – 6-4 to Gloucester, moral victory for Connacht.
Head-to-head cliche to avoid: ‘Toulouse, the aristocrats of Europe…’

Although we will probably be completely wrong, but won’t care while we hang out Barnesy in the Christmas Market. Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooohhhhhh!!

by whiffofcordite on December 7, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Get the calculators out, HEC, Oooooooooh Bath

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 7, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/12/07/double-trouble/

What’s the hell is going on at… Ulster

Concern is growing for Ulster after another meek defeat in the AAA-Bank12.  A feeble 17-9 defeat left them empty handed from their trip to Glasgow, and leaves them 8th in the table, just 2 points ahead of Connacht and nine points behind the team in fourth place, which happens to be Glasgow.

It’s a worrying state of affairs for a team that finished third in what looked to be a breakthrough season last time around.  Last year’s Ulster were characterised by the number of tight victories they squeezed out, many of them won late in the day by Ruan Pienaar; this year’s model look to have lost that ability.  They are, admittedly, missing the ice-veined Suthifrikan, who is currently injured.  Another being badly missed is Jared Payne, the outstanding Kiwi signed to play full-back, who is out for the season.  Their troubles began in losing three in a row during the World Cup, amid a general sense that their much vaunted youngsters hadn’t quite grasped their opportunity, and they just haven’t got going at all yet.

The Glasgow match was the second week in a row that Ulster were in the game for the most part (the previous one being Leicester), before losing a try late in the day.  This time it was due to poor alignment and organisation, with Trimble allowing a gap for David Lemi to breeze into.  It’s also Ulster’s second week in a row without a try, and their attack is becoming an issue.  For a team with a relatively heralded backline, their attaking play has been littered with errors; poor passes, dropped ball, and little or no cutting edge in the opposition’s 22. 

Marshall is a good scrum half, albeit not in the Pienaar class, and with a tendency to box kick too often (well, he is an Irish scrum half, so what’s new?).  iHumph will never be everyone’s cup of tea, but he is at least an inventive touch player. In the absence of Paddy Wallace (recovering from a broken finger), the centre combination of Spence and Cave is full of hard running, but it’s all a bit boshtastic – they miss the subtlety that Paddy brings to their game.  Andy Trimble has plenty of gas and power outside them, but he’s spending his time trying to step through heavy traffic – someone needs to try and put him into some space.

A backline often lives and dies by the backrow in front of it – after all, you could have Ma’a Nonu and BOD in midfield, but if you can’t get them any quick ball, they would look ordinary.  Casting a glance over Ulster’s loose trio, it does look as if this is where their problems lie.  Ferris is outstanding, but all of Diack, Wannenberg, Henry or Falloon are in the ‘decent but not great’ category.  More often than not, the Ulster backrow looks imbalanced, with three contact-magnets trying to bosh their way through midfield.  They look better when Faloon, a good link man, plays well, but he needs to start performing with a bit more consistency.

The Heineken knock-outs look a step beyond Ulster this year (it probably requires them to beat Leicester 4-0 at home and get something from the trip to Clermont), and the Magners League playoffs look a long way off at the moment.  Ospreys are showing no sign of letting up, Leinster and Munster will surely stay in the top four, Glasgow are going well and Scarlets look to be up and running with all their internationals back.  It has all the hallmarks of being a(nother) disappointing season up north.

by whiffofcordite on November 28, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Boshtastic South Africans, HEC, iHumph the salloon door, Nevin Spence, RaboDirect Pro12, Ruan Pienaar, Ulster, Willie Faloon

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 28, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/11/28/whats-the-hell-is-going-on-at-ulster/

Heineken Cup Round 2: The Good, the Bad and the Saints

Good week

Scarlet Fever
We have been banging on about the potential in the young Llanelli side for a while now, and we aren’t the only ones – key Scarlets played important roles in Wales’ RWC success and the potential at Stradey Park Parc Y Scarlets has long been acknowledge. This week, they arrived, filletting last years beaten finalists and wrapping up a 4 try bonus point on the hour. Sure, the Saints were distracted and sloppy and Peter Fitzgibbon was poor, but the Scarlets nullified the Saints scrum and let talent do the rest. Rhys Thomas, Ben Morgan, Rhys Priestland, JJV Davies, George North and Liam Williams were excellent.

Heavyweight Division
Last week, we pointed out how the Heineken Cup seemed to be rather open this year. This week, two of the favourites flexed their muscles – Leinster and Toulouse swatted aside what were expected to be troublesome opponents with ease. Both also had the luxury of making several changes and still looking formidable – they will take some beating this year.

Radge
After last week’s get out of jail stunt from Rog, we confidently predicted it was a stunning once off. And, not for the first time, the man came to his sides rescue in Europe. A nerveless injury time drop goal from the maestro got Munster out of France with a very useful 4 points. In spite of the new blood, the men in red know exactly what needs to be done and when – and they have the perfect executioner. We are at odds as to who is in the driving seat for the pool – but there is no doubt who is the star driver.

Bad Week

Les Autres Francais
Toulouse are HEC bluebloods, and reach the knock out stages pretty much every year – and will do so again this year. In the last two editions, they have been joined by a variety of fellow countrymen – Toulon, Stade, Clermont, Biarritz and Perpignan. This year, they might be a bit lonely in April. Castres and Racing Metro are out of it with two defeats and Montpellier now need to win in the RDS – don’t be surprised to see all three throw in the towel and concentrate on the Top 14 from here. Biarritz and Clermont are in scraps to the death to get through their pools – it doesn’t look like a vintage year for the French.

Northampton Saints
After 80 minutes of this year HEC, the Saints had an away victory nailed and were all set to stay on the radar as one of Europe’s best sides and a team with a bright future ahead of them. 41 phases and 80 minutes later, their European season lies in tatters – torn asunder by Rog and the Scarlets. The nature of some of the Saintly performances – Ryan Lamb (flaky), Dylan Hartley (weak-willed) and Chris Ashton (appalling attitude) and the likely departure of Jim Mallinder to replace Johnno at St Boshington’s creates an air of uncertainty about the future at Franklin’s Gardens. What an astonishing turnaround in 6 days.

No Romance at the Dog Track
It was the biggest night in the history of Connacht, but also one of the toughest.  After a great effort at The Stoop last week, the hope was that they could at least make life uncomfortable for Toulouse, for 50 or 60 minutes anyway.  Instead, they never fired a shot.  Maybe the occasion got the better of them, or perhaps Toulouse were simply too powerful, but Connacht are rarely hammered in their own ground like this.  It should have been a night to celebrate (and in some ways still was), but the old questions about the future of Connacht will be asked all over again this week.

by whiffofcordite on November 20, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in 40 metre last minute drop goals, Connacht, HEC, Leinster, Munster, Northampton, Ronan O'Gara, Scarlets, Toulouse

Posted by whiffofcordite on November 20, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/11/20/heineken-cup-round-2-the-good-the-bad-and-the-saints/

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