All posts in category HEC

Missing Muller

Ulster might have reached the HEC knock-out stages for a third successive year, but there was a rather anti-climactic feel to their qualification due to the lack of a home quarter-final, and the last two underwhelming performances at Ravers will have gone a long way towards it. They looked nailed-on for a home QF after round three, and it wasn’t supposed to be this way after that memorable win in Northampton.

After the disappointing loss in the return fixture with the Saints came the failure to get a bonus point at home to Glasgae. Now that might sound presumptuous, but Ulster should have scored four tries – and failure to do so put them behind Saracens (and Toulon) in the final rankings. The dirty win in Castres was about as good as they were going to get, and winning games in France is a tough habit to get into – so that’s a plus, but the Glasgow game was a disappointment.

They were let down by a curious helter-skelter panicky second quarter when they threw the ball around like confetti in minging conditions instead of sticking it up the jumper and trying to control it better, then a third quarter where they completely switched off. It took a few changes in the pack and the introduction of Paul Marshall to snap them back into gear – and two tries promptly followed.

Although Ulster might be able to replicate some of the lineout work of Johann Muller with a combination of NWJMB and Robbie Diack, they were unable to replace the captaincy skills and leadership qualities Muller brings to the table. There is no way the former Springbok would have allowed Ulster to take the ball out of the tight in the second quarter when in the Glasgae 22.

The absence of Muller was compounded by the ongoing unavailability of Fez and injury to Dan Tuohy – Ulster lost 3 cornerstones of their pack and couldn’t replace their influence. Chris Henry had a good game and was, as usual, the lynchpin of Ulster, but Rory Best and John Afoa were quiet – too quiet. The failure to get a grip on the game until late on was ultimately their undoing – this was an average Glasgae side and, conditions allowing, Ulster needed to slap them down early and then milk tries. And they couldn’t do it.

A comparison of the three games where Muller started and the three he didn’t are revealing:

  • Muller starts: Played 3 (2 away, 1 home), Points difference 14-0, Try difference 9-2
  • Muller doesn’t start: Played 3 (1 away, 2 home), Points difference 9-5, Try difference 3-2

Of course, Ulster had many more injuries than just Muller, but the shaky lineout and general frenzy indicate that Muller was missed more than most.

Thankfully for Ulster, the HEC knock-out stages are somewhat of a new tournament, and one can expect them to have a full selection by then (injuries will be managed with an early-April start in mind) with the exception of Tommy Bowe.

If Saracens switch the game to Wembley or Twickers or some other giant stadium, it will make the task easier, but Ulster have a mountain to climb that they have helped make themselves.

by whiffofcordite on January 24, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Johann Muller, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 24, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/24/missing-muller/

Gallic Shrug

There was an air of inevitability about Munster’s five-try qualifying haul on Sunday.  Not even Munster’s most ardent supporters – heck, not even Frankie Sheahan – would claim there was anything miraculous about it, or hold it up against famous last-round wins against Sale or Gloucester.

Why?  Because we’ve become accustomed to the middle tier French rugby clubs capitulating in the latter rounds of the Cup.  When Racing gave up a generous lead at home to Saracens the week before, Leinster’s goose was more or less cooked.  For some – Leinster fans anyway – it resulted in a slightly unsatisfactory finale to the pool stages.  How much more exciting would it have been if Munster really had it put up to them, as Leinster did in Exeter?  That’s not to discredit Munster.  As discussed in Monday’s post, they had their destiny in their own hands and did what they had to do; they deserve their place in the last eight.

The question is, can anything be done to ensure sides remain competitive to the last?  Not really.  Sure, you could try to impose fines on teams for putting out weakened sides, but in the days of heavy squad rotation, how do you define first and second choice players?  On the face of it, it looks unworkable.

And besides, it’s more a question of attitude than names on a team sheet.  Rugby is a game where bodies are put on the line; if one side’s need is greater, they will generally prevail, even if they possess less quality.  As an example, Toulon put out a strong line-up for Saturday’s do-or-go-through-anyway game against Montpellier, but it was clear from the moment Freddie Michalak gave a Gallic shrug and allowed the Montpellier centre to canter over the line for their first try, that their hearts weren’t in it.  The best that could be achieved would be that if the French are to be given concessions as part of the much-discussed tournament restructure, that they are reminded of their responsibilities to uphold the credibility of the competition.

In defence of the French sides, that they were more consistently competitive this year than in any in recent memory.  Clermont and Toulouse will always treat the tournament with respect and Biarritz – although rubbish these days – have a tradition of giving it a go.  Toulon, with their mega-squad, have no excuse for not being competitive, and took advantage of an easy pool to amble through to a home quarter-final.  It was only Montpellier’s second season in the competition, and while their pool was straightforward, they showed terrific commitment throughout and clearly wanted to make a statement, and qualified deservedly.

The performances of Castres and Racing were also committed for the most part.  Castes are notorious for throwing matches on the road, but they won in Glasgow and kept Northampton tryless in Franklin’s Gardens, a result which effectively took the Saints out of the competition.  Racing also won in Scotland, beat Munster at home and looked suitably gutted at the end of their hard-fought defeat to Saracens.  It was only once they were ruled out that they couldn’t be bothered.

If one thing could be done to improve the tournament, it’s a change to the lopsided seeding system, which counts the previous four years of tournament points to determine each side’s place in the rankings.  Four years is too many, and allows the deadwood to hang around for too long.  Cardiff were a top seed this year, which seems farcical.  They were losing semi-finalists four years ago, when Martyn Williams missed a penalty in a shoot-out against Leicester, but not many of the names that played that day are still on their books.  While there is no points system that can account for a loss of players to other clubs, two years’ ranking points appears more appropriate, and if the ranking coefficient included an element of domestic league performance, then all the better.

by whiffofcordite on January 23, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Cardiff, France, HEC, Leinster, Munster

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 23, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/23/gallic-shrug/

Regrets, They’ll Have A Few

The champions are out of Europe at the pool stages.  If that sounds pretty ignominious, then it probably is.  Sure, there were mitigating circumstances in a hefty injury list and a tough pool, but them’s the breaks and they weren’t the only team with injured players or good teams to contend with.  It’ll be especially gut-wrenching that the team to edge them out of the knockouts are their arch rivals, Munster, a team they would believe themselves to be better than.  Harlequins will be happier to be facing Munster than a rejuvenated Leinster that has belatedly sparked into life since getting a proper backline on the pitch.  But, hey, that’s Heineken Cup rugby.

Leinster can at least console themselves that they kept up their half of the bargain by securing the 10 match points they needed in the final two rounds.  That they did so in a swashbuckling style reminiscent of the last two seasons is reason enough to believe that they are not a busted flush yet, and that  their premature exit should not be seen as a serious demise.  But to be entering the final rounds relying on the middle-tier French clubs for favours – especially once their own fates have been sealed – is never going to be a recipe for success.  Leinster have only themselves to blame.

While it’s tempting to look at the possibility that they left a few tries out there against both Scarlets and Exeter, in truth the damage was done in rounds one to four.  Again, many will look to the double-header with Clermont, but given the backline Leinster had out in both games (Goodman at 12, and every other player from 11-15 playing out of their best position) and the nature of Clermont’s sense of unfinished business, it is understandable that they should lose both games.  Just one more point would have left Leinster’s fate in their own hands, and the opening week fiasco, where they sleepwalked to a fortuitous, tryless win over an Exeter which conceded seven tries at home to Clermont the following week was the one that got away.  To look at it more thematically, Leinster will rue that a misfiring lineuot proved expensive right through the pool stages.

No such concerns on the face of it for Ulster, but in having to go away to Saracens, they have made their possible passage to the final more difficult than it should have been.  They, too, will have cause for regret, in particular in taking their eye off the ball against Northampton in round four.  Having slaughtered the Saints in Franklin’s Gardens it looks as if Ulster may have got a bit carried away with themselves in the build-up to the return leg, and paid a heavy price.  Even still, a single extra point would have reversed the quarter-final match venue and as such, the awful third quarter in which they allowed Glasgow to dominate in Pool 5 left them one try short of what would have been a crucial bonus point.

By contrast, Munster will reflect that they are happy to be still in the competition after somehow squeezing out of a pool in which they never really impressed.  They can look back on the ten minute salvage operation against Edinburgh at home as the point that made all the difference to their campaign.  With one try on the board after 70 minutes, it looked set to be a disappointing afternoon at Thomond Park, but Paddy Butler’s introduction provided a spark and they manufactured three tries in the dying minutes, against admittedly hapless opposition.  They’re unlikely to do much in the knock-out stages, where the Anglo-French axis look set to dominte, but how Leinster must envy them.

by whiffofcordite on January 21, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 21, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/21/regrets-theyll-have-a-few/

Guest Post – HEC Preview

We’re bored of having to talk about the HEC – we’d much prefer to be supping skinny mocha frappuccinos and scoffing rosemary and fennel focaccia bread (Palla) or thumping our Bible and staring suspiciously at strangers while beating Kerry teams (Egg). So we decided we’d ask a few chums of ours to pen a preview of this weeks HEC games involving the provinces – let us know if you think they are any good, and we’ll ask them back.

Leinster vs Scarlets, by Gerry

Expect a whiff of you-know-what at the RDS – Leinster have got their go-to guy back, some guy called Brian. On-field lieutenants Darce and Church will add hard-carrying, and having Luke Fitzgerald no longer hors de combat is assuredly a lip-smacking prospect. Expect speedy service from the base by Eoin Reddan and the usual penetrating angles from Isa and the returning Rob Kearney.

The Scarlets might have gargantuan backs, but they’ll be living off scraps given their weakness in the trenches. If referee and personal bete-noir Jerome Garces cannot resist the temptation to emulate his, eh, countryman Romain Poite, we might have a game on our hands, with some ebb and flow of psychic energy. Otherwise, Leinster by 475.

Edinburgh vs Munster, by Frankie

Huge pressure on Munster going into this game, but then that’s the way they like it. Fingers crossed they don’t get tempted to play too much rugby, and ensure the ball doesn’t get to the inside centre. Putting the pack in the right areas of the pitch is Ronan O’Gara’s speciality and he can further stake his Lions claims with a commanding performance in Murrayfield.  I’m looking to see a real return to core Munster values.  Picking my client Ivan Dineen at inside-centre would be a start.

Edinburgh reached last years semi-finals, and Munster will need to draw on all their reserves of passion, desire, bravery, tears and faith to prevail here. I’d anticipate a victory by 60 points or so, so long as they stick to the traditional Munster way.  O’Gara will keep the scoreboard ticking with a dozen or so penalties, and the bonus point will be secured with a lineout drive from their own 5 metre line after 79 minutes and 59 seconds. Europe’s best player Peter O’Mahony and the awesome Dave Kilcoyne to be joint men of the match – don’t forget who their agent is.

Ulster vs Glasgow, by Statler and Waldorf George and Tom

George: The thing about Ulster is this – without David Humphreys they ..

Tom (interrupts): You mean Ian Humphreys?

George: Yes. The thing about Ulster is this – let me finish – without Ian Humphreys they lack the necessary oomph in the pack. And they need a genuine openside like ..

Tom (interrupts): Like Harrison Brewer?

George: Exactly Tom. If Ulster had the ability to play rugby, they’d easily win this game. As it stands, I can’t see past Italy. Italy by …

Tom (interrupts): Thanks George – we’ll be right back after these.

Harlequins vs Connacht, by Stephen

Connacht, smugly protected from relegation in the feeble Pro12 and a mere branch of their centralised union, will have little chance when they go to real, proper, manly English club like Harlequins, whose great tradition and noble breeding will swipe at the Irishmen’s poorly stitched collars before the game even begins.

The only weakness I can perceive in the glorious English side is the presence of a Kiwi at fly-half.  Expect the wonderfully experienced Nick Easter, to whose chest measurement I can only aspire, to dominate the game from first to last, and the spirited yeoman Jordan Turner-Hall to use all the explosive power in his considerable groin muscles in the 12 channel, enabling the upstanding chaps from the Harlequins Rugby Club to romp to a bonus-point victory.  Now, off to polish my many awards…

by whiffofcordite on January 10, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Good Clean Fun, HEC

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 10, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/10/guest-post-hec-preview/

Step Backwards

After the HEC double-headers in December, we thought that Ulster were virtually guaranteed a knock-out slot, Leinster were pretty much gone, and that Munster had a pretty decent shot at a best runners-up slot. They had 11 points in the bag and had upcoming games against Scottish patsies Embra and flouncing Parisians RM92 at home – both glaring try bonus opportunities.

And the try bonus point is most relevant – 19 points looks like it might not be enough, but 21 will almost certainly do it. They managed to get 4 tries at home to Embra, and looked threatening in Paris first time out. Sure, they didn’t come close to the whitewash against Sarries, but hey, it was Saturday Night Fever in Thomond – who wants tries when you can have penalties slotted between the posts through cold foggy air and the tears of the assembled press box in near-deathly silence?

Here’s a problem though – in the aforementioned early rounds, master orchestra conductor, curer of the lepers and Lion-designate Ronan O’Gara (© Conor George) was playing close-ish to the gainline and looking like he was buying into the Rob Penney Barbarimunster masterplan. In the Saracens double-header, he played a little bit further back – but needs must and the 5 points gained were what was required.

But since then, Rog has drifted further and further back to the point were he was almost 15m behind the gainline in the recent Cardiff workout. Sure, his tactical kicking might have been as pinpoint as ever, but who cares when it’s exactly what the opposition want – Cardiff won their lineouts, kept the ball intelligently and won the match at their leisure. How can Munster score tries if their opponents have the ball?

This followed an inability to get a try-scoring bonus point against Ulster’s 2.5th team – another occasion when O’Gara was nearly stepping on Felix Jones’ toes.

How can Munster expect to score 4 tries in 2 successive games without the ball, and with an outhalf who looks like he is no longer even going through the motions of playing the gameplan his coach wants him to? It’s not all O’Gara’s fault of course, but he has virtually full control over his position on the pitch, and he isn’t attacking the line.

It’s far from a home run that Keatley is of the required quality to be the future of the 10 shirt at Munster, but that’s not necessarily the relevant question to be asking; the only important issue is whether Munster have a better chance of beating Edinburgh by four tries with Keatley or O’Gara at 10.  This isn’t necessarily clear-cut, but Keatley is a quick, strong fly-half with a decent running game, as well as being a strong defender.  Against that, ROG is more experienced, a better place kicker and better kicker from hand.  But with tries the requirement, it might be time to lean towards Keatley.  Such a move would inevitibly be met with a media scrum, and Penney is presumably aware of this.  But it’s time for tough calls.

P.S. amid the lengthy debate about where Penney’s vision is leading Munster, we’d be grateful if pundits were more restrained in their use of the phrase ‘return to core Munster values’.  Shane Horgan has been one of the only pundits to resist temptation to fall back on easy, meaningless platitudes, and pointed out on Off The Ball that the fruitless multi-phase attack that yielded no points late in the Saracens game was proof that Munster have to get away from their old game plan.  Certainly, Munster’s attack is lacking, but stuffing the ball up their collective jumper is not going to get it done.

by whiffofcordite on January 9, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Complexities of Qualification, Generation Ligind, HEC, Munster, Radge, Rob Penney in the pit

Posted by whiffofcordite on January 9, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/01/09/step-backwards/

The Munsters

A thought struck us during the recent HEC action – in their times of greatest need this season, the second half of the Embra game, the must-win home fixture with Saracens and the away-day bosh-up in Lahn, Munster have reverted to the type of rugby the province is most comfortable with – 10 man boot and bollock with rolling mauls, marauding backrow forwards smashing everything that moves and kicking for territory.

Thing is, Rob Penney came on board loudly promising to introduce a more expansive style of play, but it looks like he has tempered those plans.  After the Edinburgh game he talked about how the team being ‘un the put’ where they are having to learn a new way of playing, but when they eventually come out of ‘the put’ they will be so much the better for it.  But if they keep reverting to the old ways, will they ever get out of ‘the put’?

It’s worth thinking back to how the early promise of the Ludd McGahan era (recall the 43-9 beasting of a star-studded Ospreys side) crumbled into a mish-mash of styles as the coach struggled to get his ideas across to a team used to something different. Before you say, ah but McGahan was crap, note how the Wallaby side he is now defence coach for won 3 (vs England, Wales and Italy) and drew 1 (vs BNZ) of their 5 game Northern Hemisphere tour, while conceding just 5 tries despite a lorry-load of injuries – McGahan was a capable coach, but the message didn’t get across.

So is the Penney Revolution struggling to get air? Its obviously way too early to reach a definitive judgment, but there are some issues that he already needs to address:

The Forwards

While the current edition of the Munster pack has its plus points, it’s nothing like the pack of 2008 – only BJ Botha (for John Hayes) and Donnacha Ryan (for Stakhanov) would make the grade. For all their old school endeavour in the Thomond Park Saracens game, the McGahan problem of discipline came back to haunt them, and they essentially only won because Owen Farrell left his kicking boots at the IRB POTY ceremony. 

In the Vicarage Road game, the sight of Munster rumbling into contact and losing metres to a powerful bunch of forwards when they were a man up must have had Rob Penney tearing his hair out – they spent 4 minutes boshing and going backwards which ended in a wobbly drop goal attempt, and it was just the tactic Saracens would have welcomed. Why they didn’t try and use their extra numbers a bit more productively was mystifying.

The traditional Munster game is rather ill-suited to the current squad of forwards they have. And even if Penney gets his guys doing what he wants, do Munster have the ball carriers in the pack – they are fairly lightweight and only Cawlin and JC Stander would strike you as consistent getting-over-the-gainline guys.

The Backs

The Munster outside backs are most exciting, and using them to chase bombs is not really maximising resources – Earls, Zebo, Jones, Howlett and O’Dea look dynamite with ball in hand. It’s playing to your strengths to get them on the ball as much as possible instead of the comfortable, mucky repeated one-out rumbles into contact. At home to Saracens, who themselves have a high class backline, the most dangerous outside back by far looked like Keith Earls – but they never got him on the ball.

The Ireland-style aimless shuttling across the backline against Embra was easily repelled, with nary a dangerous angle or intelligent switch pass in sight. Simon Zebo must have looked at the type of opportunities the Ulster backs got in Northampton (Andrew Trimble running from blindside wing into first receiver and making a try for instance) and wondered would he ever get that chance in a big Thomond Park game.

Its hard to see it as a profitable long-term strategy to have your most dangerous players guarding rucks instead of passing and moving.

The Leader

Ah yes. The elephant in the room. Paul O’Connell is a massive leader, and one of the best captains Munster have ever had – he was perfect as the pack leader in the HEC years, and accepted nothing less than excellence in pursuit of success. Problem is, he actually isn’t that suited to the modern game – his ball-carrying is poor, and he does far too much of it. The Mole wrote about the sight of O’Connell calling one-out ruck ball to himself for Ireland, charging 70cm into contact, and forcing the likes of Fez and Jamie Heaslip to clear out the ruck – defences will take that all day long.

Does O’Connell have the desire to evolve his playing style at this stage of his career? His second row partner of so many red and green occasions is making a decent shift at it, despite not being in the same league as a player – but O’Connell has never been a follower. If he cannot adapt, and Penney prefers other players to execute his gameplan, he’s going to have a problem.

The Outhalf

Barnesy has talked about the flyhalf being the key cog in the machine, around which the spokes of wheel turn – his vision reflected how he played the game – head-up, looking for breaks and creating space – and was the reason why England preferred the more prosaic approach of Rob Andrew. That was the type of game they wanted to play. The illustration shows the problem for Rob Penney rather neatly. For his entire career, the Munster approach has been territorial, based on Ronan O’Gara putting the pack where they want to go. Penney wants to move on, but O’Gara simply does not have the skillset to execute a high tempo, handling based game any more.

Much as some might wish it not to be so, Ronan O’Gara is long past his best, and his on-field decision-making has deteriorated markedly in the last 12 months – he is nothing like the domineering figure of the past decade. Admittedly, his performance in Saracens was excellent out of hand, but in the context of a narrow gameplan and heavily unambitious opponents.

The reality is Penney is going to have to play someone else if he is to realise his vision – maybe Ian Keatley, maybe someone else altogether. The management of this issue, as we have said before, will largely define the success, or otherwise, of this season for Penney and Munster.

Culture

It’s clear how the senior players want to do it, and its getting results – they scored 4 tries in 40 mins against (an admittedly inept) Embra, and beat high-flying English/Saffer bosh overlords Saracens doing it their way. And after the success of the old approach against Saracens (home win and losing bonus point secured) – it’s going to be ever more difficult for Penney to further his case to the already sceptical dressing room bigwaigs now they can point to Munster’s 5 points against the English heavyweights. The mathematics of a defeat then 0 tries scored in 1.5 games of New Munster and 4 tries, then a win, then a losing bonus point in 2.5 games of Old Munster might look compelling, but there is a danger the wrong lesson will be learned. Munster might be well-positioned for a quarter-final slot, but what benefit would that be in the long term if they reverted to a gameplan that doesn’t suit their younger players (and future stars) to get there?

Its fine to say you need to earn the right to go wide, but that shouldn’t lead to the conclusion that you must win the set-piece first and only. Sure, its important, but manufacturing mismatches through intelligent running angles and offloading in the tackle to force more defenders into a ruck than attackers, thus creating numbers out wide, is far more relevant. If Munster go down to Toulon or Clermont in a HEC quarter-final with the mindset that they must win up-front before thinking about going wide, they will get mashed into the turf and badly beaten to boot. Leinster have showed in the last 2 seasons that a solid (if unspectacular) scrum and a good defensive lineout is more than enough to play an accurate and ambitious game – maybe the most important difference their is that was something the senior Leinster players not only were comfortable with, but welcomed.

On another point, the importance of the muck and bullets Shannon-type AIL style can be overdone at times – its a playing style from a different era which was succesful, but its highly unsuited to the current crop. And a perceived attachment by Munster fans to a certain style of play is nonsense – recall the reception Craig Gilroy got when playing Fiji – this is a chap who ruined Munster’s season last year, but his exciting and daring brand of rugby went straight to the hearts of the Thomond Park crowd. They swooned over him, and the cheer for him the next week in the Aviva was as warm and loud as the one for any player.

The fans who have got into Munster rugby in the professional era were fine with Craig Gilroy when they saw him play – they aren’t inherently wedded to any style – just a desire to win! Clearly Munster are in a rebuild phase, but the idea that they must play in a particular way, or its not really Munster is just untrue – their challenge is to play in a way which maximises their playing resources. The atmosphere in Thomond Park on a Saturday night will be equally as well-harnessed playing ambitious rugby as it is playing a fenzied forwards-based game.

Marrying a tough, if lightweight, looking pack to exciting and creative backs looks the only way forward for Munster if they want to win again in European rugby – the best teams, like Clermont, Leinster, Toulon, Leicester and Ulster, have mean-looking packs who can take you on up front, plus backs to finish it off – scoring in 3s isn’t going to win you the big pots.

One thing is for sure, unless Munster can find an identity they can move forward with, they aren’t going to move forward – the McGahan era petered out into embarrassments against Toulon and Ulster without a united front. Rob Penney has some young talent to work with, but a reversion to a game which works in the short term to the detriment of the long term is not a recipe for sustained success – maybe now is the time to make some painful decisions, which may be unpopular with senior players (and the media) and live up to the hard-ass reputation he has come over with.

by whiffofcordite on December 19, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Conservatism, Generation Ligind, HEC, Munster, No seriously we have a gameplan, Rob Penney in the pit, Youthful Promise

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 19, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/19/the-munsters/

It’s Just A Little Airborne, It’s Still Good, It’s Still Good!

Munster and Leinster aren’t out of the Heineken Cup just yet, but oh me oh my, they’re cutting their chances pretty fine after losing what were, on the face of it, must-win matches this weekend.  Munster sit on 11 points in their pool, and Leinster are on 10.  We wrote previously how the two could be on some sort of collision course, potentially taking one or another out of the tournament.  Well, they sure are now, but it ain’t no two horse race.  It’s time to get out the calculators.

Oh, and it probably makes sense to add a health warning at this point: looking too far ahead in the Heineken Cup can be a fruitless exercise, the most likely outcome of which is making yourself look foolish.

So who’s liable to be scrapping over the two precious runner up spots?  Here’s a guide which should hopefully give Leinster and Munster fans an idea who they should be rooting for over the next two rounds.

Pool 1: Munster are third with 11 points, but are on course for second, as Racing have played hapless Embra twice.  Saracens will probably go to Racing and do the business, although Racing have kept their interest in the pool alive after back-to-back wins over Edinburgh, so it’s by no means guaranteed.  If Sarries slip up, the pool will become a three horse race, with Racing very much in the mix.  The group would probably be settled on bonus points, and it would change the dynamic of their visit to Thomond Park.  Munster have Edinburgh away before they welcome Racing in Week Six.  It’s time to bring out Rob Penney’s attacking ideas in their full glory, because they’ll be looking for 5 points from each.  21 would almost certainly be enough to qualify.

Forecast: Saracens top, Munster second on 21 points.

Pool 2: Leicester and Toulouse meet in round six, and the winner will top the group.  Results this weekend might prove to be helpful. Ospreys’ defeat of Toulouse means it’s hard to see a runner-up breaking 20 points.  Leicester are on 14 and Toulouse are on 13, but they play each other in the final round.  Unless Leicester beat Ospreys with a bonus point, but then contrive to lose to Toulouse by less that seven, or claim an unlikely draw, the runner-up here should be below the 20-point watermark.

Forecast: Leicester top the group, Toulouse second on 19 points

Pool 3: Biarritz are second on 9 points, and still have to face Harlequins.  Quins are runaway winners here and should have eyes on securing the top seeding.  Biarritz can achieve a maximum of 19 points, but that would require they beat Quins with a try-scoring bonus.

Forecast: Harlequins through, with six wins.  Biarritz second with 15 points.

Pool 4: Ulster losing to Northampton this weekend could have significant knock-on effects, and not in a good way.  Had they lost, Northampton were buried, but they’ve been handed a lifeline.  Ulster are still in control here, despite the hiccup and should still come out on top, though the final game in Castres could be nervy.  Northampton have 10 points and with Castres at home and Glasgow away, they, like Munster, will be eyeing up a 10 point haul, that would put them on 20 points.

Forecast: Ulster through, Northampton second, on 19 points, with only one of the two bonus points.

Pool 5: Clermont are home and hosed here.  They’ll beat Exeter at home and crush Scarlets, putting them on six from six.  Leinster have it all to do.  They haven’t had their try-scoring form with them this season, but should be able to manufacture a four-try win over Scarlets.  That would leave them travelling to a doughty Exeter looking for a four-try win to try and get to the magical 20 point mark.  Memories of Bath in 2006 spring to mind, but they’ll need to look considerably sharper than they have done to to do it.  Exeter are no pushovers and could still have the Amlin to play for.

Forecast: Clermont top.  Leinster to get two wins, but only one bonus point: 19 points.

Pool 6: for Leinster fans, if they do get to 20 points, it all looks to hinge on this pool.  Toulon are on 18 points and Montpellier are on 13.  The other two teams in the group are hopeless: Sale and Cardiff.  Toulon will beat Cardiff at home and top the group.  Montpellier should beat Sale, getting themselves to 17 at least.  Montpellier face Toulon at home in the final week.  Toulon should be already qualified when the game takes place.  Montpellier’s need will surely be greater.  A win and they’d launch themselves to 21 points at least.  Leinster fans must hope that Toulon turn up and win in Montpellier, or that Sale manage to recover from their 62-0 beting to somehow beat Montpellier.  Neither is especially likely.

Forecast: Toulon to top the group, but lose in Montpellier.  Montpellier to finish second with 21 points.

Overall forecast: Montpellier and Munster through as best runners-up.

The above of course, would leave our quarter final rankings looking something like:

  1. Harlequins
  2. Clermont
  3. Toulon
  4. Ulster
  5. Saracens
  6. Leicester
  7. Munster/Montpellier
  8. Munster/Montpellier

So the good news for Munster is we think they will not only sneak through, but avoid having to go to Toulon for another mashing. Clermont is equally as intimidating a venue of course, but it’s not the site of Munster’s most significant mental scarring. The Stoop would be a nice venue for a knock-out game – blood capsules all round!

by whiffofcordite on December 18, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 18, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/18/its-just-a-little-airborne-its-still-good-its-still-good/

Leinster in Big Game Loss Shocker

So, triple European champions, unbeaten by all comers except Clermont under Joe Schmidt, where did it all go wrong? Granted, Leinster aren’t mathematically out yet, but to get through they will need to score four tries in both remaining fixtures – a number they have not yet reached in the four games to date.

What has been different this year? Why have Leinster, just the second team ever to win the HEC twice in a row, only managed to put away the lamentable Scarlets with anything approaching ease? There are a number of factors, but they essentially boil down to two – the set piece and injuries.

The half-time Hobson’s Choice faced by Joe Schmudt on Saturday – take off Damien Browne for Devin Toner to shore up your lineout, but essentially concede the scrum – encapsulated Leinster’s shortcomings this season. While the scrum ran out of steam, certain chickens came home to roost in the second row – let’s examine each in detail.

When Mike Ross was at Harlequins, he played 62 games in 3 seasons. In his first season back in D4, under Mike Cheika, he played 21 – that’s about 21 a season on average. These game were played in Oooooooooooohh the Premiership, a few HEC games, and mostly Magners League for Leinster – 21 a year is what Ireland’s cosseted centrally contracted players normally do in a year – it’s a manageable number.

Since Schmudt took over in Leinster, Ross has played 77 games in 2.5 seasons – 55 for Leinster (including 22 HEC) and 22 for Ireland – that’s an average of around 30, and at a much higher level. Its been noticeable this season how his energy levels have been notably below those of previous seasons – the sheer workload of two triumphant HEC campaigns, RWC11 and 2 Six Nations have taken it out of him. He has produced thus far when it mattered, against Clermont away, the Pumas and (ahem) the hard-scrummaging Scarlets, but he has begun to look exhausted. It rather puts Declan Kidney’s judgement that Ross needed more gametime this November in harsh light, and the fatigue reached its apogee as the Clermont scrum milked him for penalties (5 in total) prompting Barnes to threaten a binning, at which point he was withdrawn.

Ross has been run into the turf, pretty much out of necessity, and he had no more to give. Leinster signed Jamie Hagan in 2011 to lessen his workload – that didn’t work out – and Michael Bent this autumn, who can hopefully step in for the Pro12 fixtures between now and the next HEC game and give Rosser a much-deserved break.

In the second row, however, Leinster are largely responsible for their own fate. After Nathan Hines left in the summer of 2011, Leinster have resorted to increasingly desperate efforts to recruit a second row of top-class HEC quality. The likes of Ed O’Donohue and Steven Sykes came and went, Devin Toner failed to make a big push for selection, and Leo Cullen all the while has slowed down. Brad Thorn bailed out a tired looking sector last season (its hard to see them having won in Bordeaux without him) and Damo Browne is really a jobbing workhorse who gets found out at this level. Mike McCarthy can’t arrive soon enough – Leinster have the weakest second row of all 4 provinces right now, and it finally cost them in a big game.

On the injury front, Leinster have had something of a perfect storm this season, at some point or another being without Risteard O hOstrais, Sean O’Brien, Dom Ryan, Isaac Boss, Dorce, BOD, Luke Fitzgerald, Bob, Little Bob and Eoin O’Malley.  It’s not so much the count as the concentration; the majority are in the outside back division and under 26 years old – somewhere you’d expect to have a lower attrition rate.

Leinster are neither the biggest nor the fastest team in Europe.  What they rely on is accuracy, in particular in their passing on the gainline and at the breakdown.  They have not been at their best in either facet this season, but looking at the backline on Saturday it’s no surprise.  Of the five backs, only one – Goodman, who does not look tailor made to play Schmidt’s gameplan – was playing in his natural position.  Missing key outside backs like Brian O’Driscoll and Rob Kearney is one thing, but when the first line of reserves (O’Malley, Dave Kearney) is taken out as well, Leinster were left with a pretty weird looking backline – a 10 at 15, a 15 on the wing, a centre on the other wing, and a 12 at 13.  Little wonder they played without cohesion – and it was doubly unfortunate that the likes of Fionn Carr and Andrew Conway had no form at inopportune moments when a more natural-looking back 3 was in order.

That sequence of long stretches without key players was something they managed to avoid for 2010/11 and 2011/12, and that little bit of fortune deserted them this season – there is a reason it’s so hard to win the HEC twice in a row, and you need a little bit of the rub of the green to do it. When you consider the great teams that haven’t done it – Munster, Toulouse, Stade Francais, Wasps, even Oooooooooooooohh Bath in the early days – the magnitude of Leinster’s achievement is more obvious.

So where to now for Leinster? As we said above, they are technically still in the competition, but they are currently ranked 5th of 6 second place sides, and are behind Munster and the Saints as well – progress is unlikely (more on this later this week). Saturday had an odd fin de siecle feel about it – BOD is probably in his last season, Dorce and Leo Cullen are getting on, and the talk is that Joe Schmidt will be going back to New Zealand at the end of next season. Winning the Pro12 (and preferably handing a hammering to those pesky Ospreys), the only trophy yet to be captured by Schmidt,  is likely this season’s new target. Leinster, when fully fit, have huge strength in depth in the backrow and the backline – but a re-tread of some of the tight 5 is necessary.

It says it all that, in 2.5 seasons, only Clermont (3 times from 5) have bested Joe Schmidt’s Leinster, and the teams they have beaten is a veritable who’s who of HEC history – Leicester, Toulouse, Northampton, Ulster and Saracens. They have been the best Irish rugby team we have seen and have opened new and tantalising possibilities for all Irish rugby fans – the idea that a team of Irish players could play with the skill, handling and verve that Leinster have since 2010 would have been so far from the collective rugby conciousness in 2010 as to have been just a dream. That’s what Schimdt’s Leinster have really done – made that dream a reality.

by whiffofcordite on December 17, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 17, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/17/leinster-in-big-game-loss-shocker/

Munster Fly-Half Steers Team To Famous Victory

The good ship Heineken is cruising along nicely, and the hopeless rats are deserting at a cracking pace – after this weekend, the list of realistic quarter finalists stands at a desultory 10 – Ulster and Quins will surely go through alone; and while Toulon, Sarries and Clermont hold the whip hand in their pools, Montpellier, Munster and Leinster are still in touch and have definite best runners-up potential. In the Pool of Death, the Ospreys are virtually gone, leaving Toulouse and Leicester to fight for top spot, and also contest for a best runners-up spot. Racing Metro and Castres are still alive, but they would much prefer to do it in the Top14, and may see HEC progression as counter-productive – the cream is rising to the top.

It was a good weekend for Romanian and Spanish rugby – Bucharest’s win over Agen had echoes of the 80s, when the Mighty Oaks had the Frenchies’ number, and Declan Cusack’s Bizkaia Gernika did what their fellows Basques in Biarritz and Bayonne couldn’t, and won a game – kudos all round. Rather less encouraging was the performance of the representatives from some of European rugby’s more prominent countries – after 3 rounds of the HEC, all the Welsh, Scottish and Italian sides are out of contention for qualification. In a miserable, no win 7 loss weekend for the Pro12 Patsies, Hard-Scrummaging Scarlets and Glasgow’s losses at home to English debutants Exeter and French Euro-bunnies Castres were notable low points. For the second year in three, we will have no Welsh quarter-finalists, Embra’s success last year looks increasingly like a flash in the pan and Italy continues its wait for a knock-out representative – this is not a sustainable divvy-up of the spoils.

All week, we had heard the repeated mantra of the Europe-dominating ambition of Saracens – from the cheerleading media in Blighty talking up their chances in Thomond, to the cheerleading media in Tara Street looking to underpin Munster’s underdog credentials. In the event, their lack of ambition on the field was stunning – for a team with such an array of talented backs, they play a horrendous brand of rugby. It’s hard to credit that a backline containing the likes of Hodgson, Farrell, Strettle, Goode and Ashton can score just 9 tries in 10 Premiership games. Do the top brass at Saracens really think that the type of 10 man dross that was in vogue 4 years ago is really a realistic gameplan for HEC success? If they do, their “European ambition” is just like the Northampton pack – all talk and no trousers.

With Ulster odds-on to be among the top 4 seeds going into the HEC quarter-finals, and the ERC stipulation on a minimum 15,000 capacity for knock-out games, the race is on to get Ravers up to capacity by April. Ulster want nothing less than to win their pool in style, only to draw a best runner-up like their modern-day nemesis, Leinster, and have to effectively give up home advantage. Expect Christmas to be cancelled in Belfast – the quid pro quo will be a first HEC knock-out game at Ravers since January 1999 and a serious tilt at bringing the trophy to Ravers for the second time, and to Ireland for a remarkable seventh.

As for Leinster, yesterday’s game was pretty instructive – Leinster were as “there for the taking” as they are going to be, yet Clermont looked a little intimidated – there is no doubt the regular wins for the D4 goys over the Bananamen have got into their heads. If Leinster end up going back to the Marcel Michelin in a quarter-final, they will be confident they have their number. Leinster won’t be happy at the prospect coming out of the pool in second, but they are probable seventh seeds and will fancy their chances away to Clermont, Ulster, Harlequins and Saracens. Only Toulon represent an intimidating journey into the unknown – it’s a fascinating sub-plot to the jostling for quarter-final seeding – third place might be a better place to be than second.

And finally, to Connacht, whose victory over fading heavyweights Biarritz was possibly the highlight of the weekend.  17 of their 22 points came from the boot of Dan Parks, including two sweetly struck drop goals.  In a season when foreign signings have been more under the microscope than ever, he is pound for pound th best bit of business by an Irish province this summer.  He is exactly what Connacht needed at this point in their development and is performing an invaluable job for them, turning the pressure they generate into points on the scoreboard.

The result certainly had an effect on our Munster-Leinster collision course.  It more or less takes Biarritz out of the equation, as they can only achieve a maximum of 20 points.  So, perhaps both Leinster and Munster could qualify as best runners-up?  Perhaps, but it’s looking like we might have been a bit dismissive of Pool 2’s chances of producing a second qualifier.  We thought Ospreys would be a contender in a three-way tussle in that group, but it doesn’t look like panning out that way.  With Ospreys now all but doomed, both Toulouse and Leicester could win there and set about achieving some pretty high points totals.

PS the “think of the fans” argument for not sending off players who commit dangerous tackles is one of the most annoying memes of modern times. After Lloyd Williams was sent off for dumping Benoit Paillauge on his noggin, Ieuan Evans and Paul Wallace moaned about how it was never a red, and the Sky line at full-time was how disappointing it all was for the fans to see a refereeing decision “ruin the game”. It prompted us to imagine this hypothetical conversation between fans:

Fan 1: Oh look, Player A is going to be in a wheelchair for the rest of his life after being dumped on his head.

Fan 2: Who cares about that, I’m just hoping the referee doesn’t send off Player B – I paid £15 to see this!

by whiffofcordite on December 10, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Complexities of Qualification, HEC, Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 10, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/10/munster-fly-half-steers-team-to-famous-victory/

Twenty20 Vision

It’s that time of year again – the December Heineken Cup double headers when the Irish get to teach the French culture and passion – the magic in the air (thanks, Gerry) of Irish provincial grounds has those renowned philistines in Biarritz and Bayonne setting down their hatchets and hams and asking could they be more like us.

The December pair of games often decide the fates of teams, either by gaining momentum with two quick wins, or edging an opponent out of the race over two legs. The relatively short break between these rounds, and the January games is an important factor too – teams can maintain form better over a few weeks of holidays than a month-long international break, and, conversely, a pair of disappointing results is hard to come back from.

This season’s competition is no different, and the three big Irish provinces face their biggest pool rivals in the crucial double headers, but from drastically different places. If Ulster manage one win and a losing bonus point, they will be on 14 points at Christmas with two eminently winnable games to come and their fate very much in their own hands – they will then have the pool more or less wrapped up (barring any disasters away to Castres), and will be targeting a home quarter final. They will, of course, be looking to win in Franklin’s Gardens, but these Saints have their moments and a losing bonus point would be no disgrace. Still, Ulster are in charge of their pool and have room for manouevre, unlike Leinster and Munster.

Adding up the numbers, it seems Munster and Leinster should be keeping a closer eye on each other than you might think, because of how the other pools are turning out. In Pool 6, Nouveau Riche Toulon are on the verge of disappearing into the distance – a double header with bluffers Sale Sharks and at least 9 points awaits – and the other teams are so rubbish/uninterested [delete as appropriate] they have no chance of scraping together enough points to push for qualification as a best runner-up. Pool 2 is the precise opposite – Toulouse, Leicester and the Ospreys are going to go down to the wire, meaning probably only one team is likley to get through, particularly with Treviso dangerous at home. Pool 3 is one where we will  see the first of the qualifying runners-up  – Harlequins and Biarritz have doubles with Zebre and Connacht respectively and we expect four wins for the bigger boys and both should be sitting pretty over egg nog with Granny.

So if the second runner-up isn’t going to come from Toulon or Ulster’s groups, or the Group of Death, who does that leave? Right! Its Leinster and Munster’s pools! What fun. Could the two Irish giants be on a collision course of sorts, without actually facing each other.  It looks like it.  We have Clermont and Saracens strong favourites in both pools – Clermont have a 2 point lead  and revenge in their sights, and Saracens are 3 points ahead in a pool with 2 rubbish teams in it. So the famously friendly provinces could be scrapping for the final slot in this years knock-out stages.

So how will it pan out?

Leinster are currently on 8 points after 2 games. They will have as their base case scenario:

  • Clermont (a) – 0 points
  • Clermont (h) – 4 points
  • Hard-scrummaging Scarlets (h) – 4 points
  • Exeter (a) – 4 points

A losing bonus point, to be truthful, is a tough ask in the Marcel Michelin, and is odds against, despite their recent record against les Jaunards. Five wins will give them 20 points, with home to the Scarlets being the obvious target for a bonus point to get to 21.  There’s scope to get up to 23 if they can get something this weekend, and perhaps if Exteter are a little punch-drunk in mid-January.

As for Munster, they have 6 after 2 games – 1 win and 2 bonus points. Here’s what they will look for, as a base case:

  • Saracens (h) – 4 points, tears and tales of Keith Wood and John Langford besting Pienaar and co
  • Saracens (a) – 1 point, tears and emotion from Gerry about famous away performances
  • Embra (a) – 4 points
  • Racing Metro (h) – 5 points from the French bunnies, tears, and triumphant recall of famous days past

That’s 20 as well! Rob Penney and his merry men will target pointless (in all senses) Embra as a potential extra bonus point to get to 21 themselves, but it’s hard to see them getting above this without beating Saracens twice, thereby winning the group and making the calculations irrelevant. Wow – isn’t this fun? Now, if they have the same number of points, it goes to tries scored, and Munster currently lead that metric 6-1, but they have less margin for error. Us? We hope it goes to the wire [well, Egg does; Palla just wants Leinster through and for his heart rate to stay below 180 in the process], and wouldn’t it be ironic if Leinster played their final game against Exeter knowing what they had to do – say, score 4 tries and win by 27 points or something unlikely like that? Imagine how miraculous that would be!

by whiffofcordite on December 6, 2012  •  Permalink
Posted in Complexities of Qualification, HEC, Leinster, Munster

Posted by whiffofcordite on December 6, 2012

https://whiffofcordite.com/2012/12/06/twenty20-vision/

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