All posts in category HEC

Joe Schmidt – the Statistics

“There are lies, damned lies and statistics.”

Bullshit – that line came from a politician for whom facts could be inconvenient. Whilst the rugby public are just beginning to recognise how individual statistics can drive team success in this post-Moneyball era, they generally cherry-pick numbers to back up a previously-held position. [Aside: go see Andy McGeady if you think statistics are irrelevances of interest to out-of-touch boffins only.]

However, team statistics are harder to argue with – they tell the story about a teams success at a higher level. In the Joe Schmidt era, Leinster’s success was frankly incredible, and probably impossible to match. When you look at the raw numbers generated by the Milky Bar Kid and his goys, its kind of staggering. Here are a few choice gems from the Joe Schmidt era at Leinster:

0: Heineken Cup games lost to teams who aren’t Clermont Auvergne

2: teams who beat Leinster more than twice in Joe Schmidt’s reign, Clermont (3) and Ospreys (5)  

4:  both the number of trophies won in three years, and the number of games under Schmidt it took for George Hook to claim he had “lost the dressing room” – this was on September 24th, 2010

6: finals reached in three seasons

59: Net winning margin in HEC knockout games not involving Cardiff, average of 11.8 ppg

85.4%: success rate in Heineken Cup. 24 matches played: 20 won, 1 draw, 3 lost

90: Net winning margin in 6 HEC knockout matches (all won), average of 15 ppg

240: Number of starts made for Ireland by Leinster players during Schmidt’s reign, 48.5% of all starts  (Mun 145 Uls 100 Conn 7 Other 3)

Leinster have had a remarkably successful three seasons under Schmidt and have done so playing skillful and intelligent rugger – they have parked themselves at the top table of European rugby, and only Clermont Auvergne and Toulon have come close to their level in this time. Now Schmidty moves on to Ireland, and Matt O’Connor comes from Leicester to take the Impossible Job – if Schmidt’s methods transfer to Carton House, expect the kind of success (and attacking play) that we all think we have the players for.

Samoa, Oz and BNZ is a tough series to start, and the baying paying public will expect two wins. Its been a while since we have achieved our goal in a series (RWC11 pool stages probably), and the sky-high expectations Schmidty has created for himself mean he will probably want three. This ride could be fun, you know.

Postscript: the original plan was for Les Kiss to take the tour to the USA and Canada, but it appears Schmidty will be elbowing the inventor of the choke tackle aside after Houston and taking charge himself. Hands on.

by whiffofcordite on May 30, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ireland, Joe Schmidt, Leinster, Les Kiss

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 30, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/05/30/joe-schmidt-the-statistics/

End of an Era

As if to have one last laugh at his ability to become the story, the news that Ronan O’Gara had announced his retirement from playing and his move into coaching on the night Leinster won the Amlin Vase was deliciously ironic. For ever since the apple-cheeked young Corkman came onto the scene, he has resolutely been able to bend the narrative to his will.

The triumvirate that guided Ireland to the new dawn of Triple Crown success and then the Grand Slam was Brian O’Driscoll, Paul O’Connell and Rog. BOD and POC were captains of country and province respectively and, in that capacity, their public utterances were largely banalities for our VBFs in the print media. Rog, on the other hand, felt no constraints to stay on-message – his confident, chippy and proud communiques were always newsworthy, and you got the impression that better represented the feelings inside the Munster and Ireland camps.  It has helped to make him the most divisive sportsman in Ireland since Roy Keane (another chippy Corkman).  While the likes of O’Connell, O’Driscoll and The Bull are easy for the public to love for their bravery and charm, O’Gara will never have the same unanimous adoration; he gets people’s goat up, and probably doesn’t care that much about it.

When Rog went on Sky the week before a crucial HEC game in Leicester and announced he “would not accept” that English players were better than Irish ones, it was a call to arms – and one he backed up on the pitch with a 50 metre penalty in pouring rain to win the game. We always felt this very modern Irish desire to break free of the “gave it 100%” brigade and measure success in medals was something O’Gara elucidated very well, and his contribution to the noughties Silver Generation was as important as the two big leaders. The fact that the willowy fly-half spent large portions of his international career pursueing an ongoing vendetta with one the toughest teams in world rugby – Argentina – was indicative of his bloody-mindedness.

Rog’s Ireland career was book-ended by back-and-forth rivalries for the 10 shirt – with David Humphreys from 00-03, then with Johnny Sexton from 09-12. What was notable about both was that O’Gara refused to accept being second best – while Humph looked a better suited player to the backline Ireland possessed, it was Rog who went to Eddie and simply demanded to always play, and Humphreys who retired from international rugby in frustration at collecting splinters.

Then when Sexton broke through, it was O’Gara who doggedly refused to go away quietly into the night, gaining oxygen from the rivalry and feeding off his coaches lingering doubts over Sexton to elbow his way to the 10 shirt for the RWC11 quarter-final.  Getting selected for that game was the winning of the battle, but the game itself was the losing of the war.  Wales ruthlessly exposed his by now limited game, and ROG never started another game for Ireland.

While his status in Ireland and at Heineken level is assured, there is no point pretending Rog didn’t have a great record on the highest stages of all – he went on three Lions tours but never started a Test, and his role in the second Springbok test in 2009 was rather ignomininious, even if being boshed by Jacque Fourie is excused by having sustained a big hit shortly before. At World Cup level, it never quite happened either – even aside from the horrendous experience that was 2007, the 2003 and 2011 were not without their moments, but both ended with a whimper, having been selected over his rivals on both occasions.

His best days, though, were saved for the Munster jersey, and it was in that shirt that he almost seemed most comfortable.  When he endured difficult times with Ireland, it was back with Munster where he was put back together.  This ws most after the World Cup in 2007; O’Gara had given his worst ever performances for an abject Ireland, but returned to form quickly at Munster and won the Heineken Cup.  It was a remarkable transformation. It happened again this year; ROG looked like a pub player for Ireland, ultimately forcing Kidney to turn to rookies instead of him.  He seemed finished, but managed to deliver two outstanding performances for Munster in the subsequent Heineken Cup knockouts.

For all the extreme views that O’Gara seemed to inspire in people, there is little doubt he maximised his talents through hard work and no little skill. He had his limitations, notably his weak defending and lack of running threat and pace.  But what made him a great was his ability to make big games bend to his will in spite of those limitations.  In a clutch situation, there were few better.  His record speak for himself, and, as someone who has met the man outside rugby on a couple of occasions, his public persona bears little resemblence to the well-spoken, thoughtful and intelligent person that he is. We think that not only will he ensure he succeeds as a coach, but his meeja utterances will reflect those personality traits of honesty and incisiveness, making him a relative rarity in Irish rugger circles.

He has given us a finale that nobody saw coming – disappearing into the Parisian sunset arm in arm with Jonny Sexton.  It’s tempting to see only the funny side, and imagine Jonny Sexton rolling his eyes and cursing that he will simply never get out of the shadow of the chippy Corkman.  One can picture Jonny opening the curtains in his Parisian apartment only to reveal Ronan O’Gara waiting for him with his kicking tee.  But in fact it’s almost certainly an outstanding coup by Racing Metro.  They have a great fly-half on their books, and another in their coaching team.  By all accounts, Sexton and O’Gara get on well, and have a productive relationship.  They’re ultimately not that dissimilar; both are cranky, have collosal self-belief and are serial winners.

by whiffofcordite on May 23, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ireland, Munster, Rodrigo Roncero, Ronan O'Gara

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 23, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/05/23/end-of-an-era/

The Mental

Were Clermont the better team in Saturday’s HEC final? Yes, no doubt – they dominated possession, territory and scoring chances. Did they deserve to win the game? Hmmmm, not so sure about that one.

Watching the game on Saturday, we’ve never been as deflated as we were at the full-time whistle – like most neutrals, we were cheering heartily for the Auvergnats. Clermont are a most likeable bunch – led by fine upstanding men like Julien Bonnaire and Aurelien Rougerie, and guided by the little genius Morgan Parra. And their fans are the best in Europe, bar none. But, and there is a massive but, they showed zero mental resolve when it counted, and crumbled visibly as the pressure mounted.  There is something almost Shakesperian, or even out of ancient Greek mythology about this Clermont side.  They are European rugby’s Achilles.  An extraordinary team with the ability to crush all-comers, but with a fatal weakness – when it comes to the crunch they don’t know how to win.

Shortly after Jonny Wilkinson’s penalty to bring the game to 15-9, Clermont had a knock-on advantage in their own half. What they did was shuttle the ball back and forth, recycling dirtier and dirtier ball, and panicking as the Toulon line went nowhere. The ball came back to Wes Fofana, who finally broke through (losing the advantage) … but got himself slightly isolated and turned over (in a brilliant piece of play), from which that horrible man ran in an easy turnover try.

On the same weekend in which that master of clutch situations, Ronan O’Gara, announced his retirement, it’s worth asking what would he have done? Welted the ball away to relieve the pressure – or tried a cheeky dink over the top, knowing you’ll get the ball back if it doesn’t work out. Certainly not faffed around and panicked, that’s for sure.

And this was when they were leading. It’s tempting to get bogged down in what-ifs about the Toulon try, but, judging by the pattern of the last 20 minutes, even if Felon Armitage had knocked on Fernandez Lobbe’s pass, Toulon would have manufactured a try from somewhere. And another ice-cool pressure merchant, St Jonny, would have converted for the win.

In fact, Egg found himself in a very strange place with a minute to go – he badly wanted Clermont to win, but he also found himself thinking a team that wobbles this badly during squeaky-bum time simply does not deserve to be champions of Europe. Clermont have played in four massive clutch European games this season – the two versus Leinster, the semi-final against Munster, and the final. In three of those games, they did their utmost to lose – squeezing out a win at home against a patched-up Leinster team, scraping past an inferior Munster team, and finally losing to the disciplined but limited Toulon. Only in the Aviva, when the pressure was largely on Leinster as the home side, did they play freely and with ice in their veins.

The sight of Rougerie, Parra and James on the bench, helpless as the woeful David Skrela repeatedly took the ball into contact, put us in mind of the New Zealand-France game in RWC07 – then it was Carter, Kelleher and Collins sitting ashen-faced as New Zealand managed to lose a game they dominated.  It seemed they knew the game was lost even when it could still be won.  Even Rougerie’s comments after the game – he said that Clermont came within one point of something special – did not sound like those of a serial winner.  Would Ronan O’Gara, or Brian O’Driscoll, or Rory Best say such a thing after a defeat like that?

This is a pattern with Clermont, dating back many years in Europe – the RDS in 2010 when les Jaunards lost a game they all but won was simply the most memorable. Until now anyway. Vern Cotter has ambitions to go back to New Zealand and angle for a Super Rugby job, and eventually the All Black one – but for all his success in Clermont, they are missing a major trait of winners – the mental. His substitutions of the halves were disastrous – how he thought serial loser Skrela (now possessor of 3 HEC silver medals with 3 different teams) was a better option than Brock James, even acknowledging James’ history in Dublin, is beyond us.

The sad truth is that Clermont didn’t show the kind of character that champions do. Which is an awful shame. Toulon (with the exception of that awful individual) did, and that’s why they won the game.

by whiffofcordite on May 20, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Clermont Auvergne, HEC, Toulon

Posted by whiffofcordite on May 20, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/05/20/the-mental/

Lions Captaincy Playoff

It was a good time to be an Irish rugby fan last week – after a chastening Six Nations, the country basked in the warm afterglow of Munster’s sack of the Stoop – it was the gift that kept on giving, with Harlequins stroppy mid-week press release vowing to identify the fans who sold their tickets classic “Munster in Europe” stuff.

The honeymoon extended into the build-up to the Munster-Leinster game, and the self-congratulation got dialled up to 11 – Shaggy decreed it the greatest club rugby rivalry in the world (Biarritz-Bayonne anybody?) and there was almost universal agreement that it had driven Irish rugby to greater levels. We’d agree with that to a point – on-field there is no doubt Munster’s achievements have driven Leinster, but off the field, the petty desire for some people to see everything through the provincial prism is most irritating, and that has been one of the legacies of the intensity of the rivalry from 2009-11. The match was billed in the Irish press as a virtual playoff for the Lions captaincy between Drico and Paulie in front of Gatty – we’d have loved to see the reaction of the press in Blighty had they got a sniff of that one.

The one thing that got overlooked in the sepia-tinged buildup to the game was this – only one team had a need for the points. Munster were out of the running for the Pro12 playoffs, and had one eye (and the wallet) on events in Montpellier in two weeks, whereas Leinster would like to secure a home semi-final. Plus Leinster have had a lock on this fixture for the last few years – we could see only one result.

And so it transpired – Munster played pretty well, then predictably faded after 60 minutes – O’Driscoll got over for Leinster and they duly saw it home. The exertions the previous Sunday took their toll on Munster, and no-one was too bothered about the win once the performance was decent – the Bananamen looming on the horizon was the bigger fish to fry.  It was an enjoyable game for this neutral (Egg) – it was certainly a level above the normal dross served up in the Pro12, and the skill level of the young Irish players on display was very impressive.

You might not have known it from Gerry’s match report, but the main talking point after the game was Paul O’Connell’s kick on Dave Kearney – to our eyes, it was clearly unintentional, but just as clearly reckless use of the boot. Kearney will be out for a few weeks, and we would be surprised if O’Connell isn’t as well – no-one wants to see him miss out on the semi-final, but, just like Brian O’Driscoll’s stamp on Simone Favaro last month, it appears to be an open-and-shut case.

It shouldn’t impact his Lions selection, but with Munster (and Ireland)’s propensity for being 50% of the team they are without him, O’Connell will certainly impact the game with Clermont Auvergne – and not in the way Irish rugby fans hoped.

by whiffofcordite on April 15, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Leinster, Munster, Pointless Carping

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 15, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/15/lions-captaincy-playoff/

Conundrums in Key Positions

The great thing about the Heineken Cup knockout stages is there is no comeback. Here’s it’s do or die. At a higher standard of play and with increased pressure, unlike Munster, Ulster were found wanting.

It was something of a bloodless coup for Saracens – Ulster never laid a glove on them and Saracens just powered their way into the semi-finals. You sensed they had an extra gear available if Ulster flicked a switch, but they never needed it. The only positive for Ulster was their dominant scrum, but when your lineout isn’t functioning and the opposition backrow are dominant, that won’t matter. As a game, it was more reminiscent of Ulster’s defeat two years ago to the Saints in Milton Keynes that last years epic in Thomond Park, and that’s a worry.

Ulster effectively played five knockout matches last season (Leicester and Clermont in the final pool matches, Munster, Embra and Leinster). In each of those, barring the final, they brought tremendous physical clout to the table, the zenith of which was the near-win in the Marcel Michelin. This time out, they couldn’t compete. Allied to that, their attacking game was poor – when Ruan Pienaar wasn’t aimlessly kicking the ball away, he was passing out to a deep Paddy Jackson and a deeper again Luke Marshall. It was meat and drink to Brad Barritt and co.

Anscombe called it pretty well in the post-match interview, saying you’ve to throw the kitchen sink at these matches and Ulster were a little tentative. At least he showed an understanding of knockout rugby, even if it was after the event and more could possibly have been done from the sidelines – the non-use of Paul Marshall was odd, especially considering neither half looked on top of their game, and the impact Stuart Olding had when he came in.

If one compares the back-row and inside backs to last year’s same stage, its quite obvious Ulster have stepped down a gear. In the back row you have Ferris/Henry/Wannenbosh versus Henderson/Henry/Williams. As fine a player as Iain Henderson is and will be, he’s nothing like the blindside Fez is – it’s nothing to be ashamed of, most aren’t. Henderson is a young second row playing in a position where Ulster have a need – he played well, and he’s good enough to be knocking on the door of the Ireland team in a position that is not his natural one, but Stephen Ferris, when fit, is one of the best blindside flankers in the world.

At the back of the scrum, Wannenburg is a more rounded player than Nick Williams – not quite as destructive with ball in hand, but a good linker and a runner of smart lines. Wannenburg was one of Ulster’s most influential players in their key games last year – he created two tries at home to Leicester with deft handling, and he scored the decisive try in their nervy semi-final win. In contrast, Saracens read Williams’ intentions easily and stopped him in his tracks with ease. Williams has been much more effective than Ulster fans (and Munster fans) expected, but he doesn’t look like a player who will thrive at this rarefied level.

We said at the beginning of the year we worried for Ulster’s depth in the backrow – Williams has had a season beyond the wildest dreams of Ulster fans, yet there is still a need for Roger Wilson to get fully fit and firing at his 2011 level. Fez is going to Japan, and unless Henderson switches to blindside full-time (unlikely), Robbie Diack is virtually the only other contender. Henry’s excellence aside, the unit is not that intimidating, and is very thin. Perhaps a sniff around a player lower in the pecking order at another province is in order.

Turning to the inside backs, you have iHumph/Wallace versus Jackson/Marshall. The two younger lads are terrific prospects, but Wallace brings a decade of experience and nous, and Ulster are a more potent attacking outfit with him in tow. Its very difficult incorporating two younger players next to one another into a team and not seeing a dropoff in consistency and performance – Wallace is a player who can bring out the best in those around him, and, for all Marshall’s class, he isn’t there yet.

As for Pienaar, he has looked increasingly jaded this year. Between World Cups (2011), Tri-Nations & Rugby Championships (Summers 2010-12), Ulster (Winters 2010/11-2012/13) and Super Rugby for the Sharks (Summer 2010), he hasn’t had a decent rest since the winter of 2009/10. If Humph can somehow get Pienaar a holiday from the RC this summer, Ulster would be hugely grateful, and Luke Marshall and Jackson will be a year older and more experienced, and have hopefully a refreshed Wallace for direction, and Olding putting pressure on their jumpers.

Ulster still have a chance for silverware this year, but, right now, it seems more likely to end trophy-less, with question marks around key positions in the off-season. If you factor in the rumors that John Afoa might be going back home, it gets worse. Ulster’s most influential players in their breakout season last year were Afoa, Muller, Fez, Henry and Pienaar. For next year they face the prospect of two of them leaving and a third rapidly burning out – these are not good developments.

by whiffofcordite on April 11, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ulster, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 11, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/11/conundrums-in-key-positions/

It’s all about Munster

Who writes these guys’ scripts? Honestly, this team got their hides whupped by Treviso and Glasgow in their last two away trips, but taught the champions of England a lesson in how to win when it mattered. We have berated some of our good friends in the mainstream media in the past for Munster-obsession, but you can see why they are so addictive – they are an incredible story.

Lulling all of Europe into a false sense of security by playing rubbish wide-wide guff all season, only to then produce a most memorable performance from when it matters – that’s the embodiment of the crazy old tournament that is the Heineken Cup laid bare.  It’s surely the only tournament where you can play poorly for much of the season and still win the biggest prize of all, but only so long as you peak at the right times.  Michael Cheika spoke of almost having to manufacture dips in the season to ensure his team peaked for the Cup matches, and even then it didn’t go very smoothly.  History has written that Leinster won the cup in 2009, but anyone who remembers much of how that season unfolded wil recall they played terribly for vast swathes of it.

Back to Munster’s performance.  And boy was it a performance. They started rather tentatively in the first 30 minutes, but as it became clear Quins had very little to threaten them, Munster stepped on the pedal, controlled territory and bossed the game. Ronan O’Gara had acres of space to play territory and Quins basically had no answer, looking anaemic in attack and walking into choke tackles and a breakdown area dominated by dervishes in red.   Quins couldn’t get anything going, and any time they threatened to, they lost the ball.

We said before the game that to win this game would require Munster’s best performance in Europe yet, but all it required was an aggressive and manic pack, accurate kicking from the halves and Superman Paul O’Connell being Paul O’Connell Superman. O’Connell played himself onto the Lions tour, quite possibly as captain, and some of the Quins players fell down the pecking order.  Peter O’Mahony looked like the player he has threatened to become on occasions, and Tommy O’Donnell – little boy lost this time last year – was a revelation.

No-one saw this one coming, least of all Quins (and, erm, ourselves), and the casual attitude from Conor O’Shea’s men was a bit surprising to say the least – they seemed stunned by an archetypal Munster performance, the best since .. what, Clermont at home a few years ago? Or maybe Quins just aren’t all that – they limped out of last year’s Heineken Cup to an average Toulouse side, losing to Connacht to allow the French side to slip through, although they did win the Premiership through the playoffs (admittedly, beating the Saints along the way, which kind of doesn’t count).

Harlequins have historically under-achieved relative to the big West Country and East Midlands teams – even Bum Face’s crew of the early 1990s haven’t the silverware this bunch have (albeit there were less competitions in the 1990s). There has been much talk of them being ‘fast learners’, and they would apply the painful lessons of last season, but maybe this is just Harlequins’ glass ceiling. They certainly didn’t look like English champions or potential European champions, and had little idea of how to play a cup game in the trenches.

But that’s all by the by.  Full credit to Munster, let’s hope we see many more performances like that, not least in Montpellier in three weeks, for they’ll need at least this to avoid a mashing from the best team in Europe, although the way they continue to defy the odds, perhaps they won’t. One thing is for sure, they have the mental in spades, and Clermont have struggled with Irish sides in the past.  And they’ve one other thing: Paul O’Connell.

by whiffofcordite on April 8, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Munster, Paul O'Connell

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 8, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/08/its-all-about-munster/

Make Twickenham Forget Last Year

Man, its such a relief when the HEC rolls back round – the all-encompassing juggernaut that is the national team sucks all rational debate from its surroundings like light into a black hole, then disappears over the horizon with fists flying and noise levels rising like a bunch of 2-year olds in a sweet shop. The Heineken Cup just seems nicer, more orderly, and more suitable to sitting down with a beer and having a sensible conversation about rugby. The loud loutish fools who clamber aboard the patriotism wagon are nowhere to be seen, and you are left with an educated and intelligent fanbase.

This even extends to the pundits – in December, Quinny went on Newstalk and dismissed Munster’s chances of beating Saracens in Thomond Park, extending his gimlet eye down the teamsheet and just not seeing enough evidence of the class to win. In March, the same person was nodding in a sanguine fashion as Frankie blamed the Cigarette-Smoking Man for making Deccie drop Rog.

We have ourselves dismissed Munster’s chances this week, so let’s move on to the other province in the Big Gig – Ulster. On paper, the Ulster quarter-final looks the only one that might be close – Clermont are nigh-on unbeatable in the Marcel Michelin, and Montpellier don’t bring the same energy on the road as they do at home, Munster’s last two away games featured implosions against Treviso and Glasgae, and, for all Leicester’s blood, thunder and Tom Croft, they just don’t have the pack or halves to compete with mighty (nouveau riche) Toulon.

That Ulster aren’t at home and favourites is down to their own blundering – a week after tearing the all-talk-and-no-trousers Saints pack a new one, they meekly laid down at home to them. Losing at home is simply unacceptable to the best teams in Europe, and it shows Ulster have a while to go. Toughing out a win in Castres was a good riposte, but this is a whole new level altogether. Their pool was rather weak – the Northampton Saints are no-one’s idea of a barometer of manliness, Castres lay down like the Euro-bunnies they are, and Glasgow showed nothing of their Pro12 form in the HEC.

So it’s a trip to Twickers, just like last year. That went well, didn’t it? Errrr… The hope (and expectation) is that Ulster will have learned from their big day out in May, and the experience of playing there will set them in good stead. But will they be able to win?

The good news for Ulster is that Saracens are utterly woeful at getting to the ball to their talented outside backs – properly-serviced, Tompkins, Strettle, Ashton and Goode should be killing teams out wide, but they rarely see the ball. Ulster have a good record of late against teams that rely heavily on their packs – Munster, Saints and Castres for example. If Ulster can neuter the Saracens forwards, they have the weaponry to do damage – they are adept at getting Gilroy and Trimble in off their wings, and Jared Payne is a rare talent.

Neutralizing the Sarries forwards is about slowing the ball down – with a ponderous scrum-half, a kicking ten, and a boshing twelve, they very much rely on their more dynamic pack members (Vunipola, Brits, Hargreaves, Joubert) spotting gaps then offloading to trailing runners or recycling ball quickly and forcing last-ditch penalties from defenders. That’s a game Ulster will be confident they can deal with.

The three key men are Johann Muller, Darren Cave, and, particularly, Chris Henry. Ulster’s pack in the absence of Muller is notably worse – decision-making suffers and the lineout is much more fallible – expect a tight and controlled aggressive performance with the Springbok in tow. Cave marshalls the defensive line excellently, and Ulster will need to be extremely disciplined in defence as well as scrambling effectively when Saracens do get going. And as for Henry, a contender for player of the pool stages, his job is to slow down ball, frustrate the Saracens forwards, and manufacture a dogfight. If Henry bosses the breakdown, Ulster have half the job done.

Another factor is Ulster’s favour is the presence of Romaine Poite in the middle. Poite is a contrary character, but he rewards a dominant tight five at scrum-time, and doesn’t tend to do what home fans want him to. Saracens backups of Rhys Gill and John Smit are better scrummagers than the starters, and if Saracens are forced to bring them in earlier than they want to, Ulster will be setting the tempo of the match.

Ultimately, Ulster are going to look to keep their line intact and restrict Farrell to 4 to 5 kickable penalties. After that, they will ask themselves: do they have the firepower to score one try and kick a few goals of their own? They would be confident that they do – Saracens are an extremely tough nut, particularly at home, but Ulster won’t fear them, and would probably fancy themselves in a mano-a-mano knock-out tie, especially at a venue where they will have 20,000 supporters and a need to exorcise some ghosts.

Something we haven’t heard too  much of yet is the Mark McCall factor – McCall won the Celtic League in his time at Ravers, but left under a cloud as the squad fractured asunder – the unity and singularity of purpose of Ulster’s squad this season has been admirable, and one can imagine Humph waking up in a cold sweat at the prospect of having to congratulate McCall on knocking his Project out of the HEC. You can bet your bottom dollar this is a match Ulster will bring their A game to.

But will it be enough? Saracens have impressed us every time we have seen them in the Premiership this year, but were rather underwhelming for the HEC group stages. Ulster, on the other hand, have wobbled badly after a dream start to the season. Ulster look a more balanced and complete team, but are still re-integrating after injury (and are missing Fez and Tommy Bowe). Saracens have all the form and the glamour and home advantage. It’s very tight, but Saracens might just squeeze through. We hope we are wrong of course, and Saracens reliance on Owen Farrell’s boot can work both ways. If Ulster cross the line twice, or defend something like they did in Thomond last year, or at the RDS on saturday night they will win. Otherwise, and most improbably, Munster will be the last Irish team in the HEC come the Sunday Mass kickoff in Lahn.

by whiffofcordite on April 4, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Saracens, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 4, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/04/make-twickenham-forget-last-year/

Munster’s Mission (Virtually) Impossible

April 30th, 2011. Amlin Challenge Cup, semi-final, Munster vs Harlequins, Thomond Park.

Munster had just come through a joyous quarter final in Brive and had juggernaut-esque smoke coming off them. The woeful efforts away to London Irish, the Ospreys and Toulon earlier in the season were forgotten, and the hubris of 2009 was present in the pre-game description of Quins as “a middling side from an average league”.

In the event, Quins battered Munster in the first half, and were unfortunate to go in only 7 points ahead. They withstood the expected onslaught to prevail 20-12. The lineups that day were:

Munster: Jones; Howlett, Mafi, Warwick, Earls; O’Gara, Murray; du Preez, Varley, Buckley; O’Callaghan, O’Driscoll; Leamy, Wallace, Coughlan. Subs: Sherry, Horan, Hayes, O’Connell, Ryan, Stringer, Tuitupou, Murphy

Harlequins: Brown; Camacho, Lowe, Ooooooooooh Turner-Hall, Monye; Evans, Care; Marler, Gray, Johnston; Kohn, Robson; Fa’asavalu, Robshaw, Easter. Subs: Cairns, Jones, Lambert, Vallejos, Skinner, Moore, Clegg, Chisholm.

The Munster line-up, and particularly the bench, was ligind-tastic, and Munster had only one defeat in European rugby in Thomond Park at that stage, to an Iain Humphreys’-led Leicester side in 2007, when the Liginds were already-qualified. That renowned Munster-hater/non-homer (delete as appropriate) Romaine Poite in charge in the middle.

The final scoreline was genuinely surprising – no-one thought Quins had the poise at that stage in their development to sack fortress Thomond, despite Munster having started something of a rebuild three months earlier. That they did with ease raised quite a few eyebrows on both sides of the Irish Sea, and was an early harbinger of the fortunes of both sides in the interim.

Since then, Quins have gone on to lift the Amlin Cup (in most fortuitous style, robbing Stade Francais blind in the Cardiff City Stadium), then followed that up with a Premiership win – they started like a train during the World Cup, wobbled a bit, then finished very strongly to beat Leciester in a riveting final. In Europe last year, they bottled it in Galway to leave a not-so-rampant Toulouse to lose limply to Embra in the quarters.This season, they cruised through a weak pool (Biarritz, Connacht, Zebre) to qualify as number one seeds for the quarters.

As for Munster, they lifted that years’ Magners League with a win over a shagged-out Leinster in Thomond Park. The emotional public farewell to Paul Derbyshire that day will not be forgotten by anyone who missed it. The following year, they won all six games in a powdery pool, but were disposed of in their citadel by an Ulster side that tackled everything that moved and took their scores, but were by no means a superpower. It was like Ireland’s defeat in Murrayfield this year, with the scoring sequences reversed.

That they got thrashed by the Ospreys in the Pro12 semi-final merely completed the unhappy end to the unhappy Tony McGahan era. Munster fans were glad to see him go, and this year was hoped to be something of a new dawn. Sadly, Munster look, if anything, even more muddled then they did 12 months ago – the desire to play a more expansive game, with forwards carrying and offloading, clashes with an ideology married to muck and bullets, grinding forward play and trench warfare. The players have got more and more confused as time has gone on this season, and their lamentable effort in their 50-burger against Glasgow the other night was hapless at best.

If one looks at the Munster side today, it’s one that is two years into the transition started after the Toulon defeat, but it doesn’t look much better, not yet anyway. The arrival of BJ Botha and the graduation of Donnacha Ryan to the first team means the tight five is probably stronger now, but the Paul O’Connell shaped-hole at the centre of the pack still needs a (fully fit) Paul O’Connell shaped-solution. The back-row is the area of the biggest change, and specifically the flanks. Peter O’Mahony is a fine and talented player, but as a Heineken Cup-level blindside, even a Denis Leamy in the twilight of his too-short career is still a better option, and David Wallace over Tommy O’Donnell/Niall Ronan is a no-brainer. The lack of brawn in the current Munster edition is probably best-illustrated by the change on the flanks – at least if Leamy and Wallace felt like resorting to rumbling, they had the beef and skills to do it, but O’Mahony and O’Donnell, at this end of their careers, rarely dominate games.

In the halves, Conor Murray has matured from Academy graduate to a fine player, and is now undisputed Ireland starter. He still seems to play a little too much to instruction, carrying a lot last year, and box-kicking too much in this years Six Nations. In time, he will grow the experience and confidence to run a game as he sees it. If Ronan O’Gara regains the 10 shirt, it will be to the groans of many Munster fans – Father Time has finally caught up with him, and, as with Ireland, he is playing himself out of the team rapidly. So Murray/Keatley – promising, but down a level on Murray/O’Gara from 2 years ago.

Further out, Munster are fairly similar – Downey/Laulala is a solid centre partnership with a hint of creativity, rather like Warwick/Mafi was, but with the invention outside instead of in. The back three is almost the same, but given Earls is getting over injuries and has zero form, plus Howlett getting on a bit, they are dying out for Simon Zebo to return.

So Munster are a clear level down on the team that lost two years ago, and still very much a work in progress. What of Harlequins? The team that lined out at Saracens last weekend had 11 of the starters, and the exact same spine of Brown, Turner-Hall, Evans, Care, Easter, Robshaw, Robson, Johnston and Marler. Two years on, the team is familiar with silverware and is now confident and experienced.

If the graphs of the two sides were level at the last meeting (which is generous to the Irish side), they have diverged dramatically since. It will take a massive reversal of form and class for Munster to prevail, and it might even be their best European result of all time. Quins have lost three games on the bounce, but only against Saracens were they at full-strength, and there is no disgrace in that.  Munster’s recent form is particularly alarming, with recent thrashings handed out by Treviso and, most recently, Galsgow.  Up until now, most of the focus has been on Munster’s inability to meet the demands of Penney’s wide-wide attacking game, suddenly they look on the point of giving up, with marshmallow tackling  and atrocious linespeed highly conspicuous.

If it weren’t for the suspicion that Munster simply won’t roll over and die, this game has all the appearances of a turkey-shoot – but surely Munster will actually tackle in this match, and will be awoken from their tailspin by the threat of humiliation. If not, it’s truly time to take out the rosary beads.

by whiffofcordite on April 2, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Munster

Posted by whiffofcordite on April 2, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/04/02/munsters-mission-virtually-impossible/

Kidney Axes ROG

Roy Keane used to say that he always knew that when the end came, it wouldn’t be pretty.  And so it was as Declan Kidney swung the axe and almost certainly ended the test career of Ireland’s most capped player; the divisive, cantankerous, chippy, bullishly self-confident but unquestionably brilliant Ronan O’Gara.

Sport can be cruel in many ways, and watching one of Ireland’s most respected players of all time decline to such an abject level over the last two weeks has not made for pleasant viewing.  It has been obvious for some time that ROG has been in decline, and while his street team of media apologists would have you believe the opposite, this day has been looming since the middle of last season.  We have a few observations on the matter:

1. On rugby terms, it’s the right decision.  Yes, it’s awful for ROG personally to have it end like this: it’s sad that his final act of any significance was a loopy, harebrained crossfield kick that ultimately consigned Ireland to a sorry defeat in Murrayfield.  But there’s no room for sentiment on this one.  It would have been the right decision to bring Madigan into the fold at the start of the Six Nations, and it’s still the right decision now.  To jettison ROG mid-tournament looks awful, but the (Kidney) clock cannot be turned back.  Decisions can only be made for the next game, not the last, so it’s the right decision, however awfully it has been made.

It was, though, the wrong decision to keep him in the 23 since the summer, and for that Kidney should be roundly castigated.  The whole situation is a mess of the coach’s making, succession planning at its absolute worst.  The failure to grasp before now that O’Gara was no longer a test player amounts to a costly blunder.

2. ROG should have retired after the 2011 loss to Wales. The danger of playing on too long is that you sully your legacy.  There will be articles about the end of the ROG era this week, but the ROG era ended with the 2011 World Cup.  His noteworthy contributions to test matches since that dismal quarter-final are… what exactly?  He has not started a game in that time, while Sexton has authoritatively claimed ownership of the shirt.  His tenacity and self-belief are admirable, but it has tipped over into a slightly sad sight over the last two series, when it has been clear he’s no longer capable at this level.  It was the right time to go, and he should have done it. For all those saying ROG deserves to go out on his own terms; well that was his chance and he turned it down.

3. Kidney – the man for 2015.  Or so he’d have you think.  Declan Kidney’s selection policy has swung from archly conservative to ‘throwing in ver yoof’.  It’s hard not to be a touch cynical and see it has him positioning himself as a coach with an eye on the 2015 world cup, presiding over a young team.  A transitional coach, if you will.  It’s like a switch has been flicked.  First the change of captaincy, now he’s thrown ROG over the side of his sinking ship to try and keep it afloat.  While in and of itself it’s the right decision (see number one above) it’s a bit hard to stomach the manner in which Deccie has done business.

4. Madigan is there on merit.  While all the airspace will be taken up by ROG, it shouldn’t be forgotten that his replacement deserves his place in the squad.  He picked up rave reviews for his performance in the untelevised win over the Dragons on Friday night, where he kicked three from four from out wide, and continues a hot streak of form.  He is the form 10 in the country and looks to have the stuff for test rugby, albeit with a weak kicking game from hand.  It’s appeared up to now that he is not the fly-half Kidney is looking for, but his form must count for something.  He deserves his chance, at least off the bench.

5. Remember the good times.  Forget the awful cross-kick and the 10m kicks to touch, and remember ROG as he deserves to be remembered.  The cheeky try against South Africa.  The cross-field kick to Shaggy. The try in the corner in Croker against France.  Converting Shaggy’s try in Twickenham to make it a four point game.  Too many penalties and conversions to mention.  We have also heard, but require confirmation, that he once scored a drop goal of some importance.

6. The Cork Con Mafia can go for a lie down.  If ROG has been one of the greatest ever Irish internationals, he has also been one of the most protected, with an army of media campaigners in place to avoid reference to his bad performances, and remind us of the failings of his rivals.  Right up to this week they were still at it.  The poor fellows must be exhausted, as their task has taken on Sisyphean proportions in recent months.  Take a lie down, chaps, and think of Peter O’Mahony.

by whiffofcordite on March 4, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in Deccie Kidney, HEC, Ireland, Munster, Radge, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on March 4, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/03/04/kidney-axes-rog/

The Mystery of the IRFU Succession Rules

Around a year ago, the IRFU announced its ‘succession rules’, whereby it would restrict non-Irish qualified players to one per field position across the provinces, and operate on a ‘one-contract-and-out’ basis.  The idea was to ensure at least two Irish-eligible players were playing first team rugby in each position across the three major provinces.  They were announced to general bafflement among a public that has become deeply loyal to their province of choice.  The IRFU hosted a twitter Q&A session, where they gave infuriatingly vague replies to fans who were wondering what on earth was going on, but failed to generate any goodwill or provide satisfactory responses.  It was one of the biggest PR gaffs the union has made in recent memory, up there with their ticket pricing policy for the November 2010 internationals.

Curiously – or maybe not so curiously – since the initial furore which greeted announcement, we’ve had radio silence on the issue.  Isa Nacewa was allowed to sign a one-year extension, apparently at odds with the rules; keeping him in Leinster until 2014, a year after the rules are apparently meant to come in. And today, Ulster announced Johann Muller was staying until the end of next season.

In the case of Nacewa and, especially, Muller, both are keeping young Irish players out of the team, seemingly at odds with the rules – both might be the highest-profile NIQs in their position, but we simply don’t know if that was a criterion in their contract offer.

Confused?  You’re not the only one.

The quietude around the rules has led people to ask: are they still going ahead?  We’re in the dark as much as anyone else over this.  It would be no surprise if they were quietly folded away and put to bed without any fanfare or announcement.  Another possibility is that the IRFU maintains they’re going ahead, with vigorous affirmations of the importance of adherence, but only enforces them selectively – that is to say, in actuality they don’t enforce them at all, but pretend they do in order to save face.

It looks like this will come to a real head quite soon, as Munster and Ulster’s NIQ tighthead props are making noises about leaving.  Tighthead prop was really the only position the rules were brought in to cater for, because as everyone knows, Mike Ross is the only Irish-qualified prop starting important games for his province, and it’s the only position where Ireland are so dependent on one player.

At Munster, BJ Botha is rumoured to be moving to Toulon, where he has been offered a two-year contract, while Ulster’s John Afoa has mentioned in a recent interview that he plans to return to New Zealand at the end of his contract, which expires in the summer of 2014.

Under the succession rules, Munster would be precluded from recruiting a foreign tighthead for next season, since NIQ players must be replaced by Irish eligible players once their contract has lapsed.  Ulster, similarly, would not be allowed to recruit an NIQ player the following season, once John Afoa departs.  But does anyone really believe the IRFU will hamper the provinces so severely?  It strikes us as unlikely.

The foremost Irish tightheads at Munster and Ulster are Stephen Archer and Declan Fitzpatrick.  Neither would be fit for the purpose of mounting a challenge for the Heineken Cup.  Fitzpatrick can lock a scrum, but is rarely match-fit, while Archer struggles to cope with even moderately technical opponents in the set-piece.  If both provinces are to have aspirations of beating the better French or English sides, some recruitment will be required.

The only Irish-eligible tighthead who looks a remotely plausible signing is Worcester’s Belfast-born John Andress.  Ploughing away in the Worcester front row may not sound like the stuff of greatness, but the Aviva Premiership is a set-piece-heavy league, packed with hardy scrummagers (Andress’ regular opponents in the scrum would include the likes of Soane Tongauiha, Alex Corbisiero, Marcos Ayerza and Joe Marler – not exactly wallflowers).

Andress has had something of a journeyman career so far, but has amassed plenty of gametime since he moved to England.  He made 44 appearances in the Championship for Exeter Chiefs, before moving up a level to the Premiership with Harlequins in 2009.  He made 30 starts for Harlequins over two seasons before returning to the Chiefs, but found his path to the first team blocked on returning.  He’s started 10 games and made eight further appearances from the bench for Worcester this season.  He might find his opportunities slightly more limited in the rest of the season, with Euan Murray having pitched up at Sixways.  That he has never been deemed essential by some fairly mediocre clubs is a mark against him, but his CV is several notches up from that of Archer or Fitzpatrick.

His is a solid body of work, and his career path looks suspiciously similar to that of Mike Ross.  That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be as good as Mike Ross, but at 29, he should be coming into his prime as a scrummager.  If the IRFU do decide to persist with their ill-conceived succession rules, he can expect his value to increase sharply.

But even if Andress is the answer – and there’s no guarantee he would be – there’s only one of him, and two provinces for whom the issue of recruitment is pressing.  If the IRFU is going to go ahead with its ill-advised move, and enact it to the letter, it is going to have to choose between Munster and Ulster and seriously weaken one of them.

Prop recruitment in general has been a mixed bag among the provinces in recent years.  Botha has delivered good value for both Ulster and Munster over five highly productive seasons, while Afoa has been consistently outstanding for Ulster.  Nathan White, as a stop-gap for Leinster and now at Connacht, is another success story.  But then there are the Clint Newlands, Peter Borlases and latterly, Michael Bents, whose careers in Ireland have been stillborn.

Even if Ulster and Munster are given the licence to recruit, there are no guarantees of quality, and competition for the best will be fierce from the Top 14 in particular, where clubs think nothing of having six first-rate props on their books, and rotating them over the season – the best props coming from the Southern Hemisphere will get hoovered up by the French clubs, as will the French ones (obviously) and the Georgians. The English ones aren’t going to come to Ireland. So, essentially, to replace Afoa and Botha with NIQ props will not only break the IRFU’s own rules, but be hugely expensive into the bargain, as we will be competing with Toulon, Clermont and Racing Metro.

by whiffofcordite on February 5, 2013  •  Permalink
Posted in HEC, Ireland, Ireland's Scrum Woes, Ireland's Tighthead Crisis, Leinster, Munster, Ulster

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 5, 2013

https://whiffofcordite.com/2013/02/05/the-mystery-of-the-irfu-succession-rules/

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