While the ERC continues to wring its hands and the Irish provinces worry about who they are going to play, people seem to have forgotten about the real victim here:

Oooooooooooooooooooohhhh!!!!!!!

Last Sunday, while winding his way through an interminable amount of shirts to be ironed, Egg found himself watching rugby on Sky. Not just any rugby, but a DOUBLE HEADER, LIVE from Sandy Park – Plymouth Albion vs Jersey followed by Cornish Pirates vs Bristol! Oooooooooooooooooooooooooohh!!!

The Sky hype machine was in overdrive for this one – the big guns of Greenwood, Quinnell and Morris were all on show, and the high praise of the Jersey scrum-ha ….. MAKE IT STOP. Greenwood looked white as a sheet, and while he feigned enthusiasm, he was surely thinking this was a step too far. Championship rugby?  On Sky?  Purr-lease.

While McCafferty has been throwing BT Sport’s megabucks in everyone’s faces while bumming and blowing about his flash new Anglo-French Cup, what has Sky’s response been?

We’d be interested in knowing what (if anything) has been going on behind the scenes with Rupert Murdoch’s minions. Here is the way we see it:

• The HEC, which appears (judging by their self-promotion) to be one of the key products in Sky’s sports offering, is on the brink of going to a growing rival broadcaster
• Sky, being the incumbent, not only have a store of goodwill from their history with the tournament, but the advantage of being the “safe option” – surely club owners recall how Setanta Sports and ITV Digital blowups a few years back impacted TV revenue to mid-level UK soccer clubs
• The French clubs are the key constituency in this debate – you don’t need to cater to the English clubs (who have already dropped you), as they need the French on board to be at least semi-viable, or the Celtalians (who you have already signed up). Have a word with Serge Blanco

Are Sky compromised due to non-disclosure elements of the existing deal? Is there a new one on the table? Could they put out some well-timed press hints about a few millions on offer to stay on board with the ERC? Publicly, nothing seems to be happening, but in this new world, money talks. And Sky have plenty of it.

PS Don’t forget Allen Stanford

While the English and French clubs are imposing their agenda on the Celts/Italians, in theory they could be stopped immediately by their respective unions. While club rugby increasingly holds the aces in both countries (a process that has naturally gathered pace since professionalism), the unions are still in charge, on paper anyway. They have a few options available to kill the BT Sport Benjamins Cup – the nuclear one being a ban on international rugger for players who participate – something like the upshot from Kerry Packer’s World Series Cricket in the 1970s. With the reverberations from cricket’s civil war still fresh over 30 years later, that’s unlikely, but it still means the clubs need at least to pay lip service to the unions views.

So what are they?

England: The English union and its clubs have been in a seemingly constant state of warfare since the beginning of the noughties, but have settled on a weary truce, for now anyway. We have no doubt the old farts of the RFU take a very dim view of the brash posturing of the likes of McCafferty, and would be wary of the fact that any BT Sport deal might leave the clubs self-sufficient and money-hungry enough to risk a full breakaway, soccer Premiership style, but the reality seems to be they aren’t going to stand in their way. The union don’t have the stomach for the fight, and you sense their biggest fear is picking a fight with PR and losing. Chance of intervention: low

France: the incoming French rugger president is none other than president of Biarritz and all-time great, Serge Blanco. Blanco might rail at the likes of Boudjellal and Lorenzetti for throwing cash around like confetti, but that’s with his Basque hat on – he’d do the same if he could. He’s a long-standing club man, and won’t do anything they don’t want him to. Whereas in England the union and the clubs are at cross-purposes, in France the union is there for the clubs – the semi-serious attitude to professionalism right from the 1920s being an example. Don’t forget – what the French clubs really want is a Top16 – a slimmed-down European competition suits that long view. Chances of intervention: nil

What then of the Celtalians? The unions there could possibly get involved more to save the current HEC setup – their nuclear option is pulling out of Six Nations TV deals (or the tournament itself if it came to it) which would get the RFU’s attention, who then might get talking to PR. For that, they would need a united front and the will to push hard, and neither seems a possibility.

Wales: the WRU have never really bought into the HEC – the regions still seem somehow temporary and the clubs all look across the Severn longingly. Cardiff and Newport aren’t really too bothered about losing to Leinster, but if it were Bristol or Bath? What the WRU wants is more games against the English – that bargaining chip is easy for McCafferty and co to throw at them – an extra round in the Anglo-Welsh Cup, say, for their support. Saracens’ chummy owner Mr. Wray was yesterday seen to be making ‘come hither noises at the Welsh.  He wouldn’t do the same to the Scottish or Irish, but with the Welsh he knows there’s a better chance they’ll come into the parlour.  It’s pretty hard to see the Welsh resisting English advances, and a Welsh-Anglo-French competition might actually be viable, unlike an Anglo-French one. Verdict: Lundy

Ireland: At Lansdowne Road, they care about the Six Nations. Professional rugby tournaments have yet to fully get into the IRFU’s conciousness, with RWC tournaments virtually ignored as milestones and the HEC observed with baleful eyes – it’s fine if it gets a few extra quid, but we don’t want the provinces being able to stand on their own two feet. Still, the prospect of only two of the provinces being involved in Europe’s central competition will make them sit up. While Munster and Ulster will fill their stadia (and Leinster the Palindrome) for the visits of Leicester and Toulouse, would they be equally as keen for Bayonne and Bath in the Amlin Mark II? They will want all three big Irish provinces regularly involved in Europe’s premier competition – if the English can offer enough cash that they can invest in some players to ensure that the qualification criteria can regularly be met by all three they might be happy. A conservative organisation, they won’t be putting themselves, or the Six Nations, on the chopping block to thwart PR and their big bucks. Verdict: Don’t rock the boat

Scotland: The SRU are the IRFU in kilts and sporrans – the two were the last holdouts when the game went open and have at times made the RFU look dynamic and nimble. Investment in Glasgae and Embra has been gradual but solid – and since the pair don’t attract massive crowds whatever the opposition, it’s always been the national team that pays the way. The SRU is likely to take the path of least resistance, like the IRFU, and with no significant support for holding the fort, simply won’t. Verdict: Glenmorangie all round

Italy: The automatic qualification of Zebre prior to their existence is Exhibit A in the argument for a new European structure. The FIR could wind up Aironi, playing out their political wranglings, knowing that they had two guaranteed places. Recall as well that Treviso, the best Italian club by miles, weren’t even a choice for one of the two Rabo franchises, as the union chased the dream of a Roman team. FIR have been like the French in their historical approach to paying players, and it’s pretty unlikely they will stand in the way of some extra cash. For the rest of us, having only one automatic Italian qualifier might focus the minds a little on the setup of the second Rabo franchise (if indeed the Rabo continues in its present form – remember the Italians currently have to pay to play – maybe this will be a bargaining chip for them). Verdict: Rumbled

If the Celtalians are to make a stand for the existing ERC, the minimum they need is a united front, iron will and some political cunning to out-manoeuvre PR. Given the Welsh look wavering material and Leinster are already pushing towards whatever competition comes into existence, it increasingly seems that the HEC, in its current form, is doomed.

The future of the Heineken Cup has been exercising us of late, as you know, and recent developments are pretty worrying from an Irish (and Celtic) perspective. Basically the English and French clubs are taking the ball away unless you play by their rules i.e. let them have more money. While we have some sympathy for the view that the qualification rules need reform, it seems obvious that is a smokescreen – and an ugly one at that.

The ERC i.e. those who stand to be cut out altogether, have resorted to putting out hand-wringing press releases begging the English and French to stop putting out press releases – it’s pathetic, and the state of affairs has been wrought by the flash cash of BT Sport turning the heads of Premier Rugby and their odious mouthpiece, McCafferty. In addition to threatening one of the best competitions in rugby to make a few extra quid, it’s given rise to the usual amount of hot air (from both camps). In a bid to find public sympathy with their grandstanding, both sides (although particularly the PRL) have been happy to put a number of myths out into the public domain, dressed up as facts.

Myth: Lack of relegation in the Pro12 gives the Celts an unfair advantage in Europe

Reality: The idea that Leicester and Toulon are busy scratching around to avoid relegation and, as a result, can’t give their all to Europe, is laughable. The English are French teams that compete in the HEC are largely the same every year, and this is down to them being the richest and having the biggest squads – every year the biggest teams aim to win domestically and go far in Europe. The two aren’t mutually exlusive, quite the opposite infact.

It’s worth acknowledging that the European success of Embra two years ago came at the cost of them lying down getting their bellies tickled week in week out at home. It was rather unedifying, and brought the automatic qualificaion of both Scottish franchises to the forefront – let’s hope it didn’t tip any balance.

Yes, the Irish provinces’ players enjoy a lighter workload and play fewer league games, but on the other hand, they are forbidden from padding out their squads with unlimited numbers of foreign players.  What’s given with one hand is taken away with the other.

Myth: The HEC will be improved as a product by having fewer teams

Reality: Dean Ryan said last week that the HEC lags miles behind the LV Cup in terms of match-day income for the teams. We find that impossible to believe – one is watched by over a hundred thousand fans* every week with every twist and turn, and the other by three men and a dog watching Gavin Henson’s latest comeback.

Like or loath Miles Harrison, Barnesy, Paul Wallace et al, there is no denying the quality of the Sky broadcast, and the colour of their money. Sky have pushed the HEC right to the top of their schedule, and invested their expertise in it – it’s great to watch and be involved in. Sure, less teams would mean less (not none – recall the fearful hammerings Toulon handed out to Sale last year) turkey shoots, but does that make it a better product? Maybe, maybe not.

Now let’s say the clubs get their way, and we end up with a 20 team contest with just two guaranteed Irish (one possible solution) – based on last season’s Pro12, Munster would be in the Amlin this year, or whatever it would become. Would that improve the HEC? Munster are an integral part of the HEC and have given a huge amount of drama to it over the years.  The idea that the tournament would somehow be more elite without their presence is so far the wrong side of ridiculous as to be comedic.  The English routinely fall over each other to praise the atmosphere in “Tomond” Park, and Saturday night games there, complete with mist, baying hordes, drooling Irish Times correspondents and away kicker nerves, are the epitome of mid-winter must-win pool games.

Myth: The Premiership clubs are all skint, and will sell their bodies to the highest bidder

Reality: The Premiership as a whole about breaks even – the clubs that make money are those that own their own stadia, and those that don’t, don’t. The likes of Leicester, Northampton, Gloucester and Exeter reap the benefits of non-match day incomes (and no rent) and can continually invest on the rugby side of the business. On the other hand, the likes of Bath and London Irish are permanently scratching out a perilous existence.

The Premiership clubs without stadia will use any extra cash from BT Sport for investment, benefitting the rugby community at large. Its a damn sight better than some Glazer-esque cowboy bleeding Sky’s millions into fees and offshore shell companies.

Myth: The French and English European qualification structures encourage conservative play, whereas the Celtalians can throw the ball around like confetti as it doesn’t really matter

Reality: This line of argument usually does along the lines of “Oh, that bosh-tastic 12-9 drop goal contest between Racing Metro and Biarritz was all down to fear of losing because they really, REALLY want to be in next years HEC and need to finish in the- top 6 to get there”. No, that was down to the monstrous packs and centres trying to run through each other all day.

Plus, it doesn’t hold for the Premiership – we’ve said it before, but we don’t buy the Celtic myth that the English league is a scrum-filled bosh fest. It’s actually quite good to watch, (and has bags more tries than the Pro12) and Leicester are among the most inventive teams in Europe these days. Sure, when Worcester and Newcastle grind out a 6-6 draw in February, you feel like tearing your eyes out, but is it any different for Dragons-Embra?

Myth: The English and French are happy to go it alone

Reality: For all the macho posturing of the PRL, it would seem to be a total non-runner – ditch the HEC for a slightly better version of the Anglo-Welsh Cup? Cancel my ticket. Do they really think the French clubs would buy into that wholeheartedly? Will Toulon play their firsts for that highly-anticipated Pool C clash in Exeter (other teams in pool: Bath and Perpignan – Ooooooooooh!!) or will they save them for a nice Mediterranean slug with Montpellier in the Top Quatorze the following week? Think we know the answer.  And what would the BT money-men make of it?  The IRFU may not appear to be in the strongest of bargaining positions, but they do have something to barter with: any future tournament needs the Irish provinces for the quality they provide.

Myth: It’s not about the money

Reality: It is

* not Saracens

In the Coen Brothers’ oddball classic O Brother Where Art Thou, when George Clooney’s character finds himself surrounded by enemies with machine guns who are setting about torching the barn he’s stuck inside, all he can bring himself to do is to repeat ‘Damn! We’re in a tight spot’ over and over.  It’s a denoument similar to the fate of the Heineken Cup’s immediate future.  It’s in a very, very tight spot indeed, and it’s getting to the point where it’s conceivable that the episode won’t have a happy ending. The potential for ruinous consequences is great indeed.

When this saga first kicked off, the noises coming out of the English and French camps were about meritocratic qualification for the tournament from the Pro12.  Initially, we had some sympathy with their plight, but since then, any goodwill towards the Premiership clubs has been impossible to dredge up such has been the arrogant manner in which they have gone about their business.  When soulless franchises like Saracens, who have offered virtually nothing to the Heineken Cup over its lifetime, are talking with such a sense of entitlement to a greater share of the profits the tournament generates, it’s pretty clear this isn’t really about qualification rules at all, but is about cold, hard dollars.

While next to nothing has been revealed about the goings on in the meetings between the various stakeholders, it appears that the Pro12 have had to concede on qualification rules, and some form of merit-based order has been pencilled in.  The biggest stumbling block, it seems, is the conflict between the two mutually exclusive TV deals that have been signed; the Premiership clubs’ landmark BT deal and the ERC’s extension of the current deal with Sky.  The two can’t co-exist, and either one or other of the parties performs the mother of all climbdowns or this one will have to be settled by highly paid lawyers, who look like being the only real winners in the whole sorry saga.

The third possible outcome is that no agreement is reached at all, and it’s looking like a real possibility, one that the IRFU, as well as everyone else, will have to budget for.  Saracens’ chairman, the loveable Nigel Wray said this week that while he hopes there is no ‘hiatus’ in the Heineken Cup, he thinks there will be.  Ouch.  Can it really come to pass that the world’s most exciting rugby tournament will be sabotaged by the very powers that want to dominate it?  Worryingly, yes.  The threat, Wray says, has to be real or else the changes the English clubs want, will never be made. It’s a game of high stakes poker.

The Heineken Cup has always been a curious competition; a mix of clubs and franchises of unions, each with differently aligned goals and priorities, at times it has been almost stuck together with sellotape. But no other rugby tournament has caught the imagination so vividly.  No other provides such variety, and the quirks of the format – rubbish seeding rules and scheduling of matches in mini-blocks – while they can appear unfair, really only add to the sense of excitement.  It has been the lifeblood of Irish rugby in the last decade, opening the game up to a new audience.  The idea that perhaps it won’t exist next season is almost too awful to contemplate, not least from a financial perspective for the IRFU.

Indeed, of all the stakeholders, it’s the IRFU that surely has the most to lose. The Welsh franchises are a sideshow to the national team, and have yet to catch fire in any event; plus they have the Anglo-Welsh cup as something to fill out the calendar. The Scottish teams rarely impact in the Heiny, but have tended to save their best for the league. They’d be able to muddle through. But for the cashflow generated by sold out matches in Ravenhill, the RDS and Thomond Park that would be more or less guaranteed in any other year, as well as the potential for lucrative home knockout matches, to be taken from underneath them, would be a disaster for the IRFU.

Put simply, what would the unions do to fill the calendar?  How would the provinces sell greatly devalued season tickets to their support base?  How would they attract the quality foreign players that the provinces need to fill gaps in their talent pool?  Hard to believe it, but these are questions which the IRFU may have to start thinking about in the next twelve months.