It’s the middle of the week and there’s plenty to wrap up before moving on to the Heineken Cup, so here’s a little about a lot.
Go and Learn To Beat France
Ireland have been pitted against France in the 2015 World Cup draw, and our history against them, especially in the World Cup itself, is fairly lamentable – the names Emile N’Tamack, Frederick Michalak and Vincent Clerc may ring some pretty painful bells. Still, at least it gives us three years to work out how to beat them. Ireland don’t really do ‘building for the World Cup’ in the same way as some other nations target it from far out, but you could be forgiven for thinking the gameplan they had going in to the last World Cup (essentially choke tackle everything in sight plus Give the Ball to Seanie or Fez) was tailored specifically to beating the Aussies. It was certainly fit for purpose, but when it came to doing away with Wales, it was exposed as too narrow and one-dimensional. Ireland now have three years to put together a gameplan that will beat France, because beat them we must or the BNZers await in the quarter finals. Choke tackling probably won’t be as high on the list of priorities this time around. Who knows, pace and offloading could – and should – come to the fore. And somehow finding a way to deal with Louis Picamoles.
En-ger-land
Whatever you make of Lancaster’s mob, and whatever the details of the Kiwis’ succumbing to norovirus in the week, that was a performance to stir the soul. English rugby will do well to keep its feet on the ground, but it’s a win worthy of a little getting carried away. England’s commitment to the breakdown was especially commendable. Wood, Launchbury and Youngs were outstanding in that area, repeatedly slowing down the Kiwis’ ball. Whatever about Ashton’s loathsome swan dive, we were especially happy for two of the good guys in the team: Chris Robshaw for responding so well after his leadership credentials were questioned and Tom Wood for his best performance since being out for so long with injury. Wood is a class act and had the grace through the adrenalin rush to wish the womens’ team the best of luck in his man of the match interview.
Professionalism Calleth
And so, the IRFU hurtle towards professionalism, with an Elite Performance Director soon to be appointed. The role appears to involve developing and running the game, appointing coaches and trying to get the national team and provinces to work together rather than driving wedges between one another. Time is very much of the essence – particularly, we imagine, with Deccie and his coaching team’s contracts up at the end of the year. The role appears so well suited to Conor O’Shea it’s almost silly. He has links to both Leinster and Munster and appears to have vision and terrific organisational capabilities. Plus, he’s a smoothie who’d be highly capable at dealing with the public. It’s a no brainer. Could he be prised away from the Harlequins project for what would be a pivotal role in Irish rugby? As Irish rugby fans, we would certainly hope so.
Filling Spaces
So, we turn our attentions to the Heineken Cup. We’ll be looking in depth at the significance of the double headers on thursday, but a quick look at selection issues at the provinces is in order. Ulster had the luxury of auditioning both Gilroy and Trimble for the play on the wing opposite Tommy Bowe, but Munster and Leinster appear not to be so fortunate right now. In the back five for Munster, and the backline for Leinster, it’s become a case of finding enough good players to fill the spots, such are the injuries they’ve to withstand. For Munster, O’Connell, Stander, Dougall and possibly Niall Ronan are all out, while Leinster must make do without O’Driscoll, Rob Kearney, Eoin O’Malley and Luke Fitzgerald. We expect Munster to line out with O’Callaghan-Ryan-O’Callaghan-O’Mahony-Cawlin from 4 to 8, and Leinster to run with Madigan-Kearney-McFadden-D’arcy-Nacewa from 15-11. A daunting weekend lies ahead for both.
England were left to rue ‘poor decisions’ in their 14-20 defeat to Australia. The focus was on a number of three point opportunities turned down in the second half, in particular scrum half Ben Youngs’ decision to take a quick tap-and-go. Indeed, England passed up four kickable penalties in a bid to get the seven points they needed to get ahead on the scoreboard, rather than reducing arrears to three.
The quick-tap has become a means for commentators make themselves look very clever indeed. ‘Poor decision, you should always go for the three points in test rugby’, they quickly tut-tut as soon as the move breaks down. Or ‘Oh, terrific stuff there from [pint sized scrum half] there, he spotted the defence was napping, took a tap and go and now [whoever] have seven points instead of three. Three cheers for [pint sized scrum half]!’
On Saturday, England scored a try from a quick tap penalty by Danny Care, with Tuilagi sneaking in the corner (good play), but left three points on the pitch when Ben Youngs took a tap that amounted to nothing (bad play).
It’s too simplistic to say the quick tap is a good idea when it comes off and a poor one when it fails. Really, the decision to do this has to come from the management team. Either Lancaster gives the likes of Youngs and Care enough rope to call it as they see it (‘heads-up’ rugby if you like) and accept that sometimes it will work out and sometimes it won’t, or he imposes a ban on tap penalties within kickable range – or he tailors his allowance for the tactic on a game-by-game, or situation-specific basis. No player can exactly predict the future, so there will always be a risk attached to any such play. As a coach, you live with it or you stamp it out.
In general, with our fondness for intuitive, heads-up rugby, we’d be a fan of the tactic and enjoy both Danny Care’s and Ben Youngs’ ability to put pace on the game when they’re really on form, and we’d be hesitant to overly criticise Youngs for his effort on Saturday. England have bigger problems, primarily that they don’t appear to know what they are doing – the rumours that Manu will be moved to the wing for the Bok game is mystifying, we aren’t sure in what universe he is a better winger than Charlie Sharples.
Anyway, back to the point at hand – here are some of the more memorable quick taps in recent times:
Best Quick Tap: ROG vs. South Africa, November 2004, Lansdowne Road. ‘Go and talk to your team’, the ref allegedly told the South African captain John Smit. So he did. And while he was delivering the message with his back to the action, the cute hoor ROG tapped, went and got over the tryline for what turned out to be the crucial score. The Saffers never forgave the apple-cheeked Corkman.
Worst Quick Tap:Peter Stringer vs. England, March 2006, Twickenham. In a topsy-turvy game, midway through the first half Ireland won a penalty 30 metres out in front of the sticks. It looked like a welcome three points was about to be bagged, but Strings seemed to spot a mismatch out wide and attempted a tap-and-difficult-cross-kick to the left wing, the sort of thing best left to those who can actually kick the ball. He overcooked it and it went out of play for a lineout to England. Ireland eventually won with Shaggy’s famous try.
At the tail end of last season, we posted on the demands of the English and French clubs (here and here) to make HEC qualification more “merit-based”. We rather sympathised with their issues with the Pro12, and largely agreed with the Anglo-French proposal.
They will be discussed today in Dublin, and the Premiership has dramatically raised the stakes with the announcement of their TV deal with BT Vision – this includes the Premiership, the Anglo-Welsh Cup and (crucially) HEC games involving English clubs from 2014 onwards. The ERC’s first reponse was to effectively say “You can’t do this”, but McCafferty et al appear to have read the small print and seem to be confident that they can – given the ERC announced Sky have right to all HEC games until 2018, clearly someone needs a good lawyer. We’ve more questions than answers on the legal issues – if anyone has any insight into this, please share it with us in the comments section.
It’s an extremely provocative step from the English, leading to plenty of articles with the word “arrogance”, and rightly so. It’s worth noting they are dangling a portion of this cash in front of the Celtic unions, telling them “You are welcome to a slice, so long as you do things our way”. With the famous parsimony of the IRFU, and the cash-strapped nature of the WRU and SRU, the English will be hoping it’s enough to make them to go all weak at the knees and fold like a cheap suit in the face of the flashy Englishmen and their sterling. It’s also an attack on their own union, the RFU, with whom they have long been at loggerheads. It’s a grab at taking ownership of the European Cup out of the union’s hands and into their own.
BT haven’t exactly behaved with mild restraint either. Talk of ‘owning a sport entirely’ is extraordinarily arrogant and misplaced, and the surety with which they talk about the end of the Heineken Cup is recklessly presumptuous. Who the heck are these Johnny Come Latelys anyway?
Ultimately, while European qualification is in the picture, this one’s all about money and power (well, duh). And what a grubby old business it is. But while it is difficult to like the brashness and obvious greed of the Premiership chairmen, it’s also important to bear in mind the situation in which some of them find themselves. The clubs who don’t own their own ground perennially struggle to break even, and if they fall too far underwater, the union won’t be bailing them out – a look at Wasps’ near-death experience is instructive here. Last year only four Premiership clubs returned a profit. Little wonder they’re looking for a greater share of the pie. But as Gerry Thornley pointed out this week, in comparing Saracens’ head Nigel Wray’s comments about money with the meagre performance and attendances they delivered in the competition, they’re not necessarily entitled to it.
Word is that the Celtic nations are apoplectic over the TV deal, but are willing to compromise over the qualification rules. Indications are the Irish and Welsh have put together a proposal to maintain the 24-team structure, with eight qualifying from each of the three major leagues. We can only presume the Scottish and Italians are not behind this. Ultimately, we wouldn’t be entirely surprised if the tournament ended up looking very close to the structure we outlined, with one guaranteed participant from each Pro12 union and meritocracy coming into play after that.
It all leaves the French Top 14 clubs with the casting vote. Align themselves with the Premiership and the Celts pretty much have to fall in line or retreat to their Pro12 competition. But while the French are in agreement with the English over qualification rules, they have not acted with anything like the same bullishness, and appear more than a little put out over the TV announcement deal. We can’t imagine a powerful group like the Ligue Natioanle Rugby allowing the Englsih to dictate terms over the new format, and the French have always had a better relationship with their Celtic Cousins than Les Rosbifs. The English continue to threaten an Anglo-French league as a viable option should the Celts not jump on board, but the French appear disinterested in such a format. It could be that the Premiership solo run has lost them their most important prospective ally, leaving them looking more than a little isolated.
We suspect there is nothing the humble rugby punter (needless to say, not at the forefront of anyone’s thinking in all of this) would enjoy more than to see the Premiership clubs hoist by their own petard. Oh to be a fly on the wall at today’s meeting.
We’re going to look at the forthcoming season for each of the provinces in the next couple of weeks, but hot on the heels of our summer series and particularly the conclusions, we thought we’d put together a wish-list of sorts for Ireland – what we would like to see from the national team this year.
The Irish team to find a direction and a purpose
We’ve talked about this a bit already – the Ireland team is fragmented and aimless at present. The relationship with the provinces is fraught and the team suffers from a lack of vision at all levels. Lets hope that next year we see this begin to change. We won’t re-hash our arguments of earlier in the week, but you can read all about it here.
The death of the phrase “honesty of effort”
The idea that trying really really hard is something aspirational for Ireland is something that just refuses to go away. For us, it smacks of the kind of give-it-a-lash-sure-we’ll-drink-them-under-the-table-anyway attitude that prevailed for so long. We hate to state the obvious, but the players who play for Ireland are professional – it’s their job to play rugby. If they find they can’t be bothered, they will lose their jobs. Most are ambitious, and thus doing their best is a starting point.
As it should be. If this Ireland team are to have an ethos, it should be the pursuit of excellence and winning. We want the Irish rugby squad to have an ethos of being the best and asking how they achieve that. The identity and drive should be similar to the All Blacks – the aim should be to be the best. At present, playing skillful, intelligent and heads-up rugby is the way to achieve that – so let’s do it.
This misty-eyed vision of Irish rugby possessing something special just because we try hard belongs in the amateur era, and should be challenged at all times. In fact, we’re sure the wooden spoon-accumulating teams of the 1990s also tried really hard, but they weren’t successful because they weren’t very good. Let us forget the guff and concentrate, eyes open, on winning.
A decline in inter-provincial bickering
One of the most marked features of the last decade, and particularly the last three years, has been the rise is embittered rants directed between the provinces. Friendly rivalry but collective purpose has taken a back seat to partisan and destructive thoughtlines, which are having a progressively corrosive effect on the national team.
Consider the “Jamie Heaslip needs a kick up the hole” meme which did the rounds among non-Leinster fans for much of last season – the value of Heaslip was seen in his absence in Hamilton, and the purpose of the inital argument was merely to push forward lesser players of other provinces (note this section is being written by Egg, our resident Ulsterman, and should thus be exempt from Leinster-centric criticism). Any kind of objective assessment could conclude nothing but Jamie Heslip is Ireland’s best number 8 by a stretch. If we want to rotate and get other players test experience, great, let’s do it. But let’s do it for that reason, not because Heaslip is personally not your cup of tea.
So besides “think of the children” type hand-wringing, what can be done? Loads actually – and much of it by the IRFU and national setup. One might cringe at the “Team England” setup they have in Twickers, but the English team have an identity – they aren’t merely the best of Leicester, Sarries and Saints (or whoever), unlike Ireland. Why can’t the IRFU make its employees take part in accessible family days? Or rotate the Carton House sessions around the country – bring in Adare Manor, Inchydoney or Galgorm Manor? Bringing the players to the fans might sound corny, but it works. And imagine the reaction to the Sexton/O’Gara debate to see the pair of them posing together for pics with children, and having the craic – its tempers some bitterness already, and makes the Irish setup something more than a vehicle for provincial box-ticking.
Some way of making the Six Nations less Hooray Henry would be good as well – we understand there are bills to be paid, but is there a reason why Six Nations tickets are virtually hereditary? The Irish team are distant from the fans, and thus it’s easy for a provincial identity to dominate. Why can Fan Zones not be set up in (say) Georges Dock, the Titanic Quarter or other public areas to show games on big screens and provide a family-friendly access point?
The IRFU to embrace social media
This is easy, and embarrassingly obvious. Compared to the provinces, the use of modern media by the IRFU is laughably poor. They are virtually never on Twitter and Facebook for example. The Supporters Club is a joke – for your €50 you get a fridge magnet and a drum, then nothing – not even an e-mail to say your membership is ready for renewal. If there are returned tickets, you might get a communication, but you usually don’t. Its pretty easy to communicate events, results (of teams at all levels), messages etc – the fusty image of the IRFU is well-deserved, and moving into the 21st century might dispel some of the cigar smoke.
When we see (and be certain, we will) swathes of empty seats at the November internationals, we should ask why haven’t the IRFU shifted them? Price is a factor, but some of the answer certainly lies in fans not knowing they are there – paying money for a SC subscription and not being told tickets are available is frankly Stone Age. And even if people don’t want to pay to see the Pumas, run competitions for free tickets on social media sites, radio, internet – its a no-brainer. Fill the stadium already!
Caps for Connacht
Consider Fionn Carr (2009-11) or Gavin Duffy and Mike McCarthy this year. What do they have in common? That they haven’t picked up as many caps as their form deserved, and that they played for Connacht.
Now, let’s say you are younger player and are behind an established player in your province. You can expect start 6-8 Pro12 games a year, but are essentially waiting on an injury to stake a claim to the jersey. You are offered the chance to join Connacht – what do you say? Right now you say no. But what if you knew you could go for a pre-defined period (12 or 24 months, not a permanent move) and play 14-16 Pro12 games and 2-4 HEC/Amlin games, and would be in Ireland contention?
You might re-consider. It might benefit the likes of Luke Marshall, Paddy Butler or Jack Cooney to spend some time in Connacht, but it would amount to career suicide at present. If you could earn Ireland call-ups by playing well, then return to your home province as a genuine contender to start, it changes the dynamic – it widens the player pool, gives players experience, and broadens the national teams appeal. Connacht’s current squad is thin, and is padded out by Pacific Islanders in any case – we’re pretty sure they would welcome the cream of other provinces developing youngsters for a season or two.
Luke Fitzgerald
This is a player who peaked three years ago and has been bedevilled by uncertainty and injury ever since. Yet he is also the most naturally talented of his generation. It would be a crying shame if his boundless potential was not completely realised, and he is talented enough to be the recipient of some special project plan – the national setup and Leinster need to work out how best to utilise his ability in the long term, and plan accordingly.
Obviously, Fitzgerald himself needs to be on board too – he has spoken out before about wanting to be a fullback, but he needs to be informed that, at present, he is 3rd choice (at best) and is behind the last two ERC players of the year – a career at full-back is not going to happen. Whether it’s at 12, 13 or 11, the natural talent that he has needs to be nurtured … assuming he comes back from injuries the same player.
What it Defined: The emergence of a consistently successful Ireland side
The State of Play
After the Night of the Long Knives following the All Blacks defeat in 2001, Eddie was always going to get some time to get things right – and he needed it. In the 2002 Six Nations, Ireland mixed the sublime with the ridiculous – veering from feeding Wales a painful 50-burger to being on the end of two shellackings in Twickers and Paris. The inconsistency that had been Gatty’s downfall wasn’t going to go away quickly.
Next season, it looked like they had begun to sort themselves out. After being unable to beat Scotland for a decade, suddenly Ireland were finding it very easy – a 3rd win in 4 years got them off to a great start, and it was followed up by a routine win in Rome. The character of the next two wins had the Irish public sensing something different – a tough grinding win over France in Lansdowne Road was followed up with a last gasp one point win in Cardiff (shurely shome mishtake Mish Moneypenny). The mental toughness we had been looking for seemed within reach … as did a Grand Slam as England came to town.
Until, of course, it was slapped down in spectacular fashion by Johnno and co. at Lansdowne Road. The game will be remembered for the English captain’s perceived snub of Mary McAleese, but that preceded a right beating from the English, who were thoroughly sick of being denied Grand Slams by Celtic upstarts. A 5-try 42-6 demolishing was the result, but Ireland were quietly pleased with progress, and this was one hell of an England side.
The World Cup in Oz that autumn was about one thing in the minds of the Irish rugby public – atonement for Lens. Ireland had been drawn with Argentina again, as well as the hosts, and someone was going to bite the bullet. In the event, Ireland staggered past an obdurate Pumas side in a stinking game – Quinny’s try-scoring injury put him out for a long time, and both Argentinian props were accused of gouging in the aftermath.
The newly carefree Irish almost caught the Wallabies napping in the final pool game, but a last minute Humph drop goal sailing left meant it was the French instead of the Scots, and after 30 minutes Ireland were whacked and bagged at 24-0 down, eventually losing 43-21 – a defeat which prompted the retirement of all-time legend Woody. It was about par for Ireland World Cups, but the players had a ball in a terrific base. Shane Horgan rated it as a career highlight, but lamented that it came a year too soon for what was a young team.
The following years’ Six Nations started with defeat to France, but that was followed up by another handsome victory over Wales. Despite the loss of Wood, the trip to Twickenham was crucial for Ireland – another defeat and they were essentially back where they were after 2000 – some pretty wins, but no cigars.
England themselves were reigning world champions and at the peak of their powers – they had scored 11 tries against the concession of one in their first two games – we tend to associate the 2004 England side with their shambolic 2006-10 cousins, not the powerful machine which won a series in New Zealand and the World Cup in the nine months preceding this game – make no mistake, this was a formidable team, one of the best (if not the best) of the professional era.
The Game
This was the first Great Eddie Performance – a ruthless and well-executed devastation of the opposition’s weak point: the lineout. Thommo had the worst day of his career, and Mal O’Kelly the best, in tandem with the incredible Paul O’Connell. The English set pieces never got going, and Ireland kept them under incredible pressure throughout the first half. Despite an opportunist try from Matt Dawson, Ireland went in 12-10 in front thanks to four Ronan O’Gara penalties.
England came out flying after the break, with a Ben Cohen try in the corner ruled out by the TMO for a double movement. It was a tight call, but probably correct. Ireland responded with one of the memorable moments of the last decade, and another Eddie Classic – an all-singing backline move started by a sublime step-and-go from Gordon D’arcy – suddenly playing to his great potential – and finished by Girvan Dempsey. Every step was training ground rehearsed. Egg can recall the dirty Vinnie Jones-esque tackle on Dempsey by Cohen as much as the try itself, but it was beautiful to behold (although look how deep the whole line stands!).
Ireland closed it out after that with the sort of tough hard-nosed performance they needed to produce – it was a display full of grit, desire and marked confidence in their gameplan. Gordon D’Arcy and Paul O’Connell were excellent in their first games in Twickers and would be mainstays of the team for years to come. The England team they beat were missing Johnson and Wilko, but had a plethora of World Cup winners, and were led by Lawrence Dallaglio.
The game was the catalyst for Ireland to win three Triple Crowns in four seasons – their most consistent period of success in history. The first was secured three weeks later at home to Scotland and prompted wild celebrations. The team of 2004 was largely the team that played for this entire World Cup cycle and through to France 2007, missing only the silky-haired Jirry Flannery – at that point just back in Munster after a sojourn in Connacht – and the soon-to-re-emerge David Wallace.
The following season, it was Wales’ turn, and they won a rather fortuitous Grand Slam, but this was the catalyst for Eddie’s best years – a Triple Crown followed in 2006 (as did a horror beating in Paris – something which was becoming a familiar marker), and that Autumn, Ireland beat both South Africa and Australia, and reached the heady heights of 3rd in the world rankings. The South Africa and Australia teams were somewhat developmental in nature, but that was lost on a public giddy with excitement over Ireland’s form. Ronan O’Gara surely never played flatter than in that series, and two new stars from Ulster emerged: powerful winger Andrew Trimble and wrecking-ball blindside, Neil Best.
The peak of the side was due to be in 2007, and it corresponded with the knocking down of decrepit old Lansdowne Road in favour of the sparkling new Palindrome – Ireland were to play their home game from 2007-2010 in Croke Park, the 80,000 seater occasionally atmospheric home of the GAA. The emotion and unfamiliarity of it all were undoubtedly contributors to a slightly off-key performance in the first game of the series, against France. Ireland were but a lucky bounce away from a home win that would likely have led to a Grand Slam. As a fan, there are some defeats you never quite get over, and for Palla Ovale this is one – he simply sat, motionless in Croke Park with his head in his scarf for an extended period of time, before going straight home to bed.
The team were more proactive however – they were primed against England in their next home game. The emotional peak and nationalistic fervour conspired to inspire Ireland to their most complete performance to date – a 43-13 pummeling of a shell-shocked England. The momentum took them to a 50 point win in Rome, which would surely have been good enough for the Championship had France played Scotland simultaneously. In the event, it was another Triple Crown, and this one was greeted rather less positively than the previous two – it was, quite rightly, perceived as a chance of a lifetime having been missed, and Ireland felt short-changed. They hadn’t climbed their mountain yet, but the mentality was one of winners. A Triple Crown was no longer good enough.
After the physical and mental peaks of the Six Nations, surely Ireland would be firing on all cylinders again for the World Cup in October?
‘Tis a biggie alright. Wales are the Six Nations’ all-or-nothing men. World Cup disaster in 2007? Wales, I’ll stick you down for a large helping. Blazing a trail in 2008 with an outstanding slam? Yes, indeedy. How about mid-table mediocrity for the next three years, Wazza? Ah sure, go on. Following their World Cup success with a Grand Slam would count as an all too rare bit of consistency, and there’s a feeling that this Welsh side is built for a less fleeting spell of greatness.
They certainly have a robustness that 2008’s high-class but flaky geniuses didn’t. If they don’t quite have the silken touch of the likes of Williamses Martyn and Shane or James Hook and Gavin Henson in form they have never looked remotely like repeating, they certainly have power. They haven’t looked as good as they did in the opening week in Dublin over the last couple of games, but they should have enough bosh to get the job done. Oooooooooooooooohhh Wales – who’d have thunk it?
France can be all or nothing themselves, but usually all within the one match. PSA has had a miserable tournament, winning few friends with his Anglo-centric rugby philosophy and fewer still with some poor results. His team look jaded and uninspired, but the squad has been given a shake-up. It’s highly unlikely they’ll win, but a bit of fresh enthusiasm – hopefully from the likes of Ouedraogo and the exciting teenage Clermont full-back Jean Marcel Buttin – might just rouse them from their slumbers.
Verdict: Wales to secure the slam.
The Birdie Putt
Two teams looking to finish ahead of par with a win. Both teams started terribly, but have improved as the show has gone on. The winner will finish second in the log, and can feel pretty good about the tournament, but for the loser it’s a fair-to-middling season if you’re England and a middling-to-poor one if you’re Ireland.
Hopes are for a decent game between the two sides finishing well. England’s gameplan isn’t that different to the side which flunked out of the World Cup. Their carriers still run hard and straight, and Owen’s primary ploy looks to be the inside pass. It’s readable enough stuff, but they have a handful of threats: Ben Morgan (a player we’ve liked for some time) is a fine carrier, Manu Tuilagi will fancy a cut at Ireland’s midfield and Tom Croft, while he isn’t the best 6 in the world by a long shot, can do damage in wide channels. Not all that surprisingly, England have found their confident voice again – it doesn’t take much for these guys to believe their own hype.
If Ireland can hit the rucks and use a similar defensive line to that which we saw in Paris, they should have the class in the backline to win. Expect to see Stephen Ferris smash anything that moves in the middle of the field, while Heaslip and O’Brien will be employed closer to the ruck. And forget the overrated Rhys Priestland: Sexton v Farrell is the shootout for 10 of the series.
Vedict: Ireland to finsh first in the match and second in the tournie.
The Wooden Spoon
Lordy, this could make for grim viewing.
Verdict: Scotland to squeeze out a win. Expect a cagey don’t-lose-it-whatever-you-do approach from both sides.
Another week, another set of bogus predictions from the Whiff of Cordite boys. I only hope all our loyal readers have been going to the bookies to lay exactly what we’ve been forecasting. Wales to cut loose, Ireland to win a tight game and France to beat England. Erm…
Ireland’s attack: now with 40% more penetration
Before the tournament, the one thing we asked – begged! – for was to see Ireland’s attack improve. Credit to Deccie and Kiss; they have delivered. Ireland look a threat with ball in hand now, and the flat, lateral play that characterised Ireland over the last couple of seasons has been largely dispatched – 13 tries in four games, and no fewer than two in any match, tells its own story. It said a lot that even after a nervy, ponderous start, Ireland were willing to go to the corner with an early penalty, and take the game to the Scots. It’s been a collective effort, but two players who deserve particular credit are Rob Kearney and Keith Earls. Kearney’s counter-attacking has been a joy to watch, and Keith Earls has shown himself to be up to the job at 13.
Wales slam-in-waiting has echoes of Ireland in 2009
Wales have effectively won the Championship, barring a ridiculous set of results next week. Their journey to the Grand Slam has been reminiscent of Ireland in 2009 – opening with an impressive flourish in the first match, before regressing a little with every game. Ireland relied on an accurate kicking game, while Wales have fallen back on their power. It’s almost as if they’ve bought into the press’ fawning over the size of their backline. No side that wins a Six Nations deserves to be sniffily treated, and less so one that wins a Grand Slam, as Wales surely will. They are the best selected, best coached, and it would appear, fittest, team in the competition, but this is not a vintage championship. Ireland, and indeed England, will not see them as especially superior, and are entitled to have some regrets.
Just how awesome is Richie Gray?
Very is the answer. Watching Scotland on Saturday was a little bit like watching Italy in recent times, when one player is just so much better than all his team-mates. Gray was physically and metaphorically head and shoulders above anyone else in a navy shirt, and indeed many in green. His try was a thing of beauty – Bob Kearney is getting some stick for buying Gray’s dummy, but Gray combined the dummy with a subtle change of angle and pace, and it was that, as much as anything, which did for Kearney. At times you felt he should step in at 10 to give Wee Greig a break – he most probably has the skills for it.
Gallic shrugs for all
It’s pretty clear France aren’t very engaged in this tournament. We thought they would stroll it, so mea culpas all round, but they just don’t seem too bothered. When they look like they might be embarrassing themselves, they step it up for a while (last quarter vs. Scotland, third quarter vs. Ireland, last 10 minutes vs. England), but generally aren’t too concerned. Why might this be? Well, PSA was roundly congratulated for his continuity, contrasting with Lievremont’s selections, but that has a flip side. Firstly, they were all physically and emotionally drained after the RWC. Secondly, the team’s key players are from Toulouse, Clermont and Biarritz – three teams with key months ahead, for differing reasons.
The rumour mill is already rife that Yachvili (and the FFR) would prefer to be with Biarritz to save them from relegation rather than devote time to Les Bleus. At the other end, Clermont are aiming for a unique double – and expect to see the Aurelien Rougerie we are used to and not the ponderous and disinterested passenger of the 6N when Les Jaunards pitch up in Lahndan in April. It’s not that the national jersey means nothing, it’s that these men can only give so much; and being a Basque, Catalan or Auvergnat is equally as important as being French.
And by the by, for a nation which professes to be in love with the drop goal, they’ve been utterly useless at them in this competition.
Lancaster’s investment in youth has paid off
England might have looked desperate at times, but they have done what they have needed to do, and, but for Mike Brown’s inability to fix a man, would be playing for the Championship this weekend. Lancaster tore up the tired old script and gave youth its head, and he has been rewarded. England are improving with every game, and it’s down to Owen Farrell (20), Manu Tuilagi (20), Ben Morgan (23), Alex Corbisiero (23), Chris Robshaw (23) and Brad Barritt (25). The youngsters are beginning to look comfortable in their surroundings, and England look in decent shape all of a sudden.
The test will of course come in adversity. Johnno tore up a pretty successful playbook after getting hockeyed by Ireland last year, and the result was a farcical RWC. England have their nemesis of recent times, a rejuvenated Ireland, up next, then a three test tour of South Africa at the end of a draining season. If their performances hold up, they don’t ship any heavy beatings, and they get two wins (or one if it comes in SA) from those four, England will have come through a very tough time to get to a pretty good place.
A non-vintage Six Nations campaign is heading for a straightforward blitz-tournmanent style finale. In the last week, Wales and France will meet to decide the championship winners (The Cup). England and Ireland will play for the Plate, or third place, and Italy and Scotland will tough it out for the Bowl (or to avoid the wooden spoon).
The Cup
Some of the mythology around the enormous Welsh backline was exposed this weekend. Mike Phillips got overly involved in a fight with the English backrow, and Wales never looked like getting around England, so they just kept trying to go through them. Getting into a boshfest with the Kings of Bosh is a risky game, and Wales were in a tight spot for much of the afternoon. In the end they had just enough class to win out, with one of their smaller backs, reserve centre Scott Williams (weighing in at a puny 97kgs) coming up with a dash of brilliance to win it. The Triple Crown is in the bag, and they are in a good position to deliver the slam, with France coming to Cardiff.
Here in Ireland we love nothing more than fawning over the French. We’re spellbound by their pristine blue shirts, intimidated by their scrummaging power, awestruck by their handling skills, and swooning over Morgan Parra’s classic good looks. But for all their Gallic genius, they rarely play all that well. Truth is, they’re masters of just doing enough (unless they are playing New Zealand). Not much has really changed under the new coach. Sure, the selection is consistent, but the mentality is harder to shift. France sleepwalked through the first 25 minutes here, and while their two tries were brilliant, there was no sustained greatness. Trouble is, they are usually good for one outstanding performance a series. One of Ireland, England or Wales will get it.
The Plate
England: played three, two tries, both chargedowns. They’ve Strettle, Ashton and Foden in the back three, but they can’t service them with three midfielders with the distribution skills of combine harvesters. Brad Barritt fought gamely again, and he’s not a bad player, but the lines of attack are too predictable. For all that they probably scored a good try at the death, and after last week’s bottling exploits for his club, we’d all have loved to see the theatre of the last-kick wide conversion from Toby Flood to save a draw. Two players who won’t enjoy looking at the tape this morning are Courtney Lawes, whose upright carrying style led directly to the Welsh try, and Mike Brown, who failed to fix his man with the non-try scoring pass to Strettle, and gave him an awful lot to do, when a stroll in was possible.
Declan Kidney is starting to get the hang of this newfangled ‘bench’ thing that other people keep banging on about it. We’d heard of it ourselves, but weren’t quite sure what it was. Turns out you can replace players during the game, sometimes even improving the side by bringing off a guy who’s tiring or not playing great and putting another player in his position. Who knew? All the talk this week will be that Ryan and Reddan should be starting in Paris (they won’t). Both players are getting a raw deal. Ryan is clearly the superior player at 4 to O’Callaghan, and is probably among Ireland’s best performers in the series so far, and it appears Reddan has never really earned the trust of the management. He started their two best performances last year, and was influential in both, but found himself overlooked ever since. Dropping a young player like Murray after two poor performances is not an easy call, but you feel that if Ireland are to have any – any! – chance of winning, Reddan needs to play.
The Bowl
Hard times for Scotland, who have improved out of sight this year, without getting the results to show for it. Their handling and offloading was terrific yesterday. Management are culpable for some outrageously bad team selections. How was it that Hogg, Laidlaw and Blair had to wait until the third game in the series to take to the pitch together? Still, credit needs to go to them for making the changes. Scotland look like a team who might just win a few … if they can just win one.
It’s proving a difficult season for Italy, who haven’t really improved as much as people are letting on. They were much more competitive last year, when they should have beaten Ireland and Wales, and toppled France. The wooden spoon beckons methinks, as Scotland look to have too much for them – thouh they can be a different proposition in Rome.
It’s not been a classic series so far by any means, which had us wondering when there last was a classic Six Nations. Wales’ and Ireland’s grand slams in 2008 and 2009 were up against mediocre post-World Cup fields (France were off experimenting). The best in recent times is probably 2007’s tournament, when strong France and Ireland sides went toe to toe, with France securing the Championship with the last play of the game against Scotland. It’s been a while…
After all the drama surrounding team selections, squad announcements and even refereeing appointments, the small matter of the actual games of Six Nations rugby take place this weekend. We’re looking forward to it. Now for the bit where we put ourselves in the firing line and predict what will happen.
Scotland v England
We hummed and we hawed. We saw the England squad and thought they couldn’t possibly win. Then we saw the Scotland team, with Dan Parks at 10, and thought they couldn’t possibly win. Then we cried for a bit thinking about the two hours of our lives we’d each be giving up to watch the blasted game. Then, finally, we saw the England team and went back to thinking they wouldn’t win.
This one’s all about the New England – new captain, new players, new attitude, new interim coach, new playing style. The trouble is none of it looks all that great. Mouritz Botha, Geoff Parling and Phil Dowson are adequate Boshiership journeymen rather than exciting new talents, while England appear to be looking to the least creative of the good sides in the country for their midfield (10 – 13 all Sarries!). Chris Robshaw captains the team, and he’s a good player, but looks a bit knackered and will be out of position on the openside.
Verdict: We’re going for Scotland because we just can’t see how England will be able to deliver the gameplan they’re talking about. Lancaster says they’re looking to play at a high tempo, but high tempo requires quick ball, and just who is going to serve that up? The Scottish back row will be licking their chops at the lightweight trio England have served up – Scotland to shade a dour affair.
France v Italy
France will be looking to hit the ground running and have every chance of doing so. They seem to have the right team on the pitch, something they haven’t had for some time. Louis Picamoles keeps out Harinordoquy in what looks a position of real strength (Fulgence Ouedraogo can’t even make the 22), while Trinh-Duc is welcomed back to the starting line-up, with Beauxis a handy reserve. All eyes will be on Clermont’s razor-sharp Wesley Fofana, who looks like a potential star of the tournament.
It should all be too much for Italy. The Italians were poor in the World Cup, and never looked like troubling Ireland or Australia. They just don’t travel. Their home games, now in the Stadio Olimpico, will be worth watching and they may try to keep some of their powder dry for England’s arrival there next week.
Verdict: this one is set up for France to rack up some points; we expect them to win by a couple of scores.
Ireland v Wales
Obviously, this is the most interesting game from our perspective. Even before the Welsh squad started dropping like flies, we fancied that this was a game Ireland were targetting – the noises from the squad echo those we heard prior to England in March and Australia in October. Now, with the Welsh down several front-liners, Ireland will be confident as well as motivated.
We foresee an urgent and effective Ireland performance with some tries thrown in. Wales will play a smart game and target our weaknesses (second row in the loose and Earls’ defence at 13) but it won’t be enough. Ireland really want this one, and nearly all the squad go in brimful of confidence after the HEC group stages – stark contrast to Wales.
Verdict: We don’t think Ireland will blow Wales away early like they did to England, but they will have enough. This could be quite high-scoring – the Welsh backs are more than useful – 30-20 or something. Ireland by more than a score
Stuart Lancaster revealed his 32-man squad for the Six Nations this luncheon, with nine new faces arriving. He’s kept faith with a core of tight forwards, (Cole, Stevens, Palmer, Deacon, Hartley) but outside that dark region it’s going to be a new-look England. We can expect to see a backrow featuring Ben Morgan at 8, and any two of Wood, Robshaw and Croft. 10-12-13 will be interesting and it’s not entirely clear how that will look. Charlie Hodgson (yes, him) has been recalled, and Lancaster may see him as the wily old head to steer the ship from 10 while the young guns busy themselves around him. It will look like a mad call to Hodgson’s many detractors, but in Flood’s absence there aren’t that many other compelling options. Still, it looks a weak point.
Some things never change though, and it seems Lancaster couldn’t resist picking a couple of inside-centre boshing machines in Barritt and Turner-Hall; while that in-vogue openside remains as elusive as ever, with Andy Saull having to bide his time in the Saxons squad. Still, it’s a brave new-ish world and all that, and we’ll watch with intrigue as they travel to Murrayfield for their first game.
Good luck to them, we say. They’ll need it – the carping has started already, in fact, it started before the squad announcement. Here’s Lawrence Bruno Nero when asked if Ben Morgan and Owen Farrell should make the first XV:
“No. The lads need to experience the culture and the environment.”
Oh dear. Would that be the culture of self-aggrandisement, and the environment of oafish behaviour? Surely the whole plan was to build a new culture from the bottom up.
Now, bear in mind that this is about Morgan and Farrell, the only two newbies who are nailed on to start against Scotland – Farrell has been the stand-out English back in this years Boshiership and Morgan hardly went from turning down the Saxons to qualify for Wales last year to switching allegiances just to hold a tackle bag for Thomas the Tank Engine. [Aside: the “Who is Ben Morgan?” pieces in the English press show a worrying insularity – do England really have nothing to learn from the Celts? Morgan is a Lion in waiting.]
What we also don’t understand is why there was no requirement for the likes of Shontayne Hape to learn the “culture” – he wasn’t even English, but was fast-tracked into the squad with nary a peep from Dallaglio. Maybe there is one rule for ageing boshers and another for young tyros.
The ’03-ers are rightly considered Heroes of English Rugby, and all have retired with unimpeachable reputations (on the field anyway). The problem for English rugby is that many have retired to the soft seats of the media, and their opinions on the current national set-up (again, rightly) carry a lot of weight. You can’t shut them up, but every unconstructive utterance such as Dallaglio’s will erode the fledgling confidence (such as it is) of the new generation. Plus, as we are tired of banging on about, it will remind everyone that the team aren’t doing as well as ’03… and are daring to pass the ball wide in the process. Ergo – bosh it up the middle to win.
To rub salt into the wound, and reduce the pressure on the likes of Farrell, Lawrence finished with the Lampard-esque rallying call:
“Of course England can win the World Cup”
Stopping just sort of “… because we deserve it.” Here at Cordite Towers, we wish the newbies, especially Farrell and Morgan all the best – it’s not going to be an easy ride.
PS. of course, the real indicator of the new culture in Team England is this: if Chris Ashton does his charming swallow dive when he scores his first try in the Lancaster era, forget about it.
Whiff of Cordite 