It’s raining outside, work is dull and everyone is hibernating – what better time to take a holiday? Egg and Palla have been off-radar for the last while, taking their own holidays (of sorts in one case), but we’re back now, just in time for the Northern Hemisphere’s long-suffering players to postpone their holidays and go on tour. Let’s have a butchers, shall we?
Wales
Where are they going? Australia, for 3 Tests
How is it looking? Not too bad on the Welsh side of things – at club provincial franchise regional level, only the Ospreys have been bothering of late – the rest were done and dusted by January (Cardiff clearly didn’t consider a trip to the Palindrome worth practising for), so they re relatively fresh. Gatty is their biggest injury worry, but you would think Rob Howley will cope just fine – the team has a plethora of heads-up on-field generals, and they should be ok.
The Wallabies are ticking over quite nicely thanks – leaving aside the BaaBaas, and the midweek dirt-tracker against Scotland (more of which anon), these are the 3rd, 4th and 5th successive Tests against Wales. The Aussies are in rude health, with the only blot being the form of the Queensland Reds, who contributed a lot of the RWC11 team.
What’s going to happen? Australia will win the series, no doubt about that. This does, however, represent the best shot of a major win for a NH side, so the first Test will probably decree if it finishes 3-0 or 2-1. Given the Aussies will be hurting from today’s loss, we’ll plumb for the Aussies being ready. 3-0, but three competitive games.
England
Where are they going? South Africa, for 3 Tests and 2 mid-week games
How is it looking? The English are thankful to some leniency for the presence of Hartley and Tuilagi, and are basically at full-strength. How capable that full-strength side is, however, is another question. They were dire for most of the 6N, and they still don’t know who, and in what combination, will play at 10-12-13. The gameplan of uninspired bosh and Farrell’s boot won’t have the Boks quaking.
This is Heineke Meyer’s first series as SA coach, and he has picked a squad top-heavy with Bulls and light on top-of-the-table Stormers which is not going down well at home. The supposedly transitional nature of the side, with Smit, Bakkies and Victor moving on, may be over-emphasised – they are still chock full of experience, and peppered with promise as well.
What’s going to happen? The best-case for England is that they don’t get humiliated. We think they will however, with a 3-0 defeat, probably one big loss, and the two midweek games are such obvious ambushes (in all senses) that we are wondering why they are bothering.
France
Where are they going? Argentina. The ARU wanted to take the games out of Buenos Aires and spread the gospel – there was talk of beautiful Mendoza, but France are going to Cordoba and Tucuman
How is it looking? The French season is still going on, but there won’t be any respite. PSA has picked a young-ish squad, but there is still room for lots of Toulouse and Clermont players, who have essentially been on the go since August. It’s a great opportunity for younger lads like Tolofua, Samson, Buttin, Dulin and, er, Freddie.
Los Pumas will be well up for this – most of the European-based players are being rested for the Quad-Nations/Rugby Championship (notable exceptions Dr Pippo and Roncero), and its mostly locals who will be aiming to play themselves onto the plane to South Africa.
What’s going to happen? Argentina are tough to beat at the best of times – in front of a raucous crowd against their best buddies France, they won’t want to lose. France won’t be too pushed as long as they get a chance to sample some Malbec – and their hosts will gladly lay it on for them. Still, its a fuller strength French than Puma team. We’ll say 1-1
Ireland
Where are they going? It’s three Tests in the Land of the Long History of Chastening Beatings
How is it looking? If you leave aside Leinster, there is precious little reason to be confident from an Irish perspective. Luckily, the Irish gameplan leans heavily on the all-conquering (and mostly Irish) European champions, so there is a positive vibe around the team. Wait, something doesn’t make sense there… Oh yes, that’s right, Ireland are muddled and poorly-coached. And, crucially, are missing 3 irreplacable forwards (Ross, POC, Fez) for the first Test.
This will be New Zealand’s first Test since the RWC11 win, and they have paid tribute to those guys by continuing to pick them, even the ludicrously-sized Piri Weepu. The NZ teams in Super Rugby, with the exception of the Auckland Blues, are going very well, and there is a nice warm glow around the team right now.
What’s going to happen? Gulp. New Zealand don’t anticipate any problems, and they are unlikely to get any. Three-zup as they say down there, with one nasty one in prospect. Deccie will come home a lame duck with blood-curdling war cries like “Sure, we were never going to beat New Zealand” and “Think of all the injuries” ringing in his ears from the combative Irish press.
Scotland
Where are they going? They’ve already beaten a midweek-ish Aussie selection, which is a great start for them. Now, (admirably) it’s on to Fiji and Samoa
How is it looking? In theory, Scotland can build on Embra and Glasgow’s youthful and successful seasons and integrate some of the promising youngsters like Stuart Hogg into the international setup against beatable opposition. In practise, they were awful in the 6N, but today’s win sets them up for a successful series.
After today’s winning start, they are going island-hopping – you have to admire when established teams go to the Pacific Islands, despite of the drawbacks – poor facilities, stifling heat and huge opponents. New Zealand, for all the Islanders they have “naturalised” have never reciprocated by visiting Apia. Poor show, and kudos to the Jocks.
What’s going to happen? We got an NH win from the Scots – and we should get at least one more against one of the Islanders. Fiji were a rabble in the World Cup, but Samoa gace South Africa a real game, and will be dangerous at home. 2 wins, 1 loss.
Italy
Where are they going? The Americas – one Test each against Argentina, Canada and the USA
How is it looking? Italy’s squad is full-strength but for one (significant) injury – captain and marvel Sergio Parrisse. There is quite a bit at stake for Jacques Brunel – this is his first tour with Italy, and he will be looking to have them playing the way he want to by the end of it. The younger players will relish the chance.
The Pumas are likely to scrummage them off the park first up, but they should have it more their own way against the Canucks and Eagles.
What’s going to happen? They should come home with two wins, and a spring in their step for next season.
Whiff of Cordite 
JSRF
/ June 5, 2012Watching the Ireland rugby team at the moment is like death by 1000 cuts. “Muddled” is being very kind for me. Kidney follows nonsensical selections with even stranger quotes at press conferences, my favourite being his line that he rotated in the 6 Nations to build the squad. As far as I remember the only changes were injury enforced! Although I can not see Kidney exposing any but his chosen few to test match rugby I’d love to see teams along the lines of these:
Test one: Kearney, Trimble, BOD, D’Arcy, Earls, Sexton, Reddan, Heaslip, SOB, Locky, Tuohy, Ryan, Fitzpatrick, Best, Healy
Test two: Kearney, Trimble, BOD, McFadden, Zebo, Sexton, Murray, Heaslip, Henry, SOB, Tuohy, McCarthy, Ross, Cronin, Loughney
Test three: Kearney, McFadden, Earls, BOD, Trimble, Sexton, Marshall, POM, SOB, Locky, Ryan, Tuohy, Ross, Cronin, Healy
We will have exposed some new players whilst keeping key members in situ. However this is far to progressive for Kidney to even think about! I have resigned myself to DOC starting every test and informing the BNZers about the great nights he has had in Jerrys pub.
The Aussies certainly have the Welsh teams number and have provided a perfect template of how to play them. Play with pace and accuracy, run them off their feet and St Sean Edwards (bow head) defensive system creaks under the pressure. I have a feeling all 3 games will follow the patterns of recent Wales-Aussie games. Tight for the first 30, Aussies pile on a few tries in the next 30, then empty the bench Wales get back within 8 and hold out for another memorable moral victory. Even without Kurtly Beale and Bieber they will have more than enough to win. I am particularly looking forward to seeing Cooper and Iaone back together. They seem to create magic when they are on the pitch together.
Bowe gathers
/ June 5, 2012Images of a south African ‘Bokker’ Farrely foaming at the mouth as the unseen work of Bakkies and divine right of liginds to play past their sell by date. Oh to live in a forward looking country where transitional doesn’t mean picking a cork con cub and twenty odd 28 year olds. Land of the long white wash indeed.
Pete
/ June 5, 2012As an Englishman who enjoys this blog, I have to say I think you’re slightly wrong, but don’t feel that confident about it – and if I’m honest, I think you’re wrong in that South Africa’s uninspired bosh and Steyn’s boot will at least allow us to keep in touch.
I hope. Of course, I dream of an all-dancing running rugby revolution, but… well…
As for the midweeks – yes, they’ll probably be horrendous games to play in, but they’ll teach the players something and give Lancaster a better chance to look at how some of the fringe players fit into his concept. Honestly, I’m surprised that Ireland aren’t playing any.
paddy o
/ June 5, 2012JSRF, I would look at dividing into a drier weather, wetter weather lineout and then reassess for the third test. I read reddan talking about you are either pushing the pace or pulling the pace of the game, you can’t do both. It’s a good concept. It’s likely to be drier in Eden park and wetter in christchurch. Therefore I’d prefer to definitely have Ross for christchurch rather than risk him in Eden park. I would try: healy, cronin, fitzpatrick, mccarthy (over tuohy on the mole’s recommendation as a 4), Ryan, POM, sob, heaslip, reddan, sexton, earls, darce, bod, trimble, kearney. Marshall on the bench and just trust our handling and play that we keep tempo up, don’t drop it, or concede 5m scrums…just have an absolute cut.
The wet weather team, something like: loughney, best, Ross, doc, tuohy, locky, Henry, heaslip, Murray, rog, Zebo, darce, bod, mcfadden, kearney. Wingers who can kick, good lineout operators + scrummagers, hard to break down (or at least with Zebo you’d be working on his D) and just aim to stay in it until you start pushing the tempo with healy, cronin, sob, reddan, Ryan, sexton. That would keep reddan-sexton and murray-rog together too. Heaslip, darce, bod being the trio you build it round on this trip-just think their understanding of each other is more an asset in such a tough place than trying to blood new midfield partnerships.
It is easy enough sitting here saying that obviously though! It is a pretty scary tour whatever way you look at it.
whiffofcordite
/ June 6, 2012I think Sexton and Healy will be starting all three games. Look like core team members at this stage and should be establishing themselves as senior players from now on.
paddy o
/ June 6, 2012Aye in practice i couldn’t imagine leaving out obrien either, more just thinking of managing the conditions and workloads.
Pete, the midweek games would be more appropriate at start of season probably, they could be tough gigs for you guys at this stage of year. That looks a tough tour too.
Wales look to be throwing the sink at this series, I’d give them a chance lads.