World Cup Preview: Wales

Group D Opposition: South Africa, Fiji, Samoa, Namibia

Pedigree: A mixed bag as you might expect.  Semi-finalists in 1987 (they won the third place playoff against Australia) and quarter finalists in 1999 and 2003, when they gave England a real scare before finally succumbing to the eventual champions. On the flipside, in 1991, 1995 and 2007 they failed to get out of their group. A habit of wayward, unfocused performances into the hands of Pacific Island nations has gotten them into trouble before…
Players to watch: A decent team is taking shape: George North looks like he could set the tournament alight, while Wales look like the only Six Nations team bringing a dedicated breakdown forward in Sam Warburton. In what could be an inspired move, Gatty has made the brilliant 22-year old his captain. Alongside him, there will be hope that Dragons’ afro’d Toby Felatau can be the dynamic ball carrying No.8 they have long required. Key to the whole operation is James Hook – he is wonderfully talented, but continues to be shunted around the backline without a set position. Can they finally get the bet out of him? 

Good tournament: Wales are in a pig of a group, and if they get out of it that will be considered good enough.

Bad tournament: Fail to get out of the group and Wazza will have issues.

Prospects: Not four weeks ago, things looked desperately grim: Wales were lucky to draw with Fiji in the autumn, were mediocre in the Six Nations and all their best players seemed to be either injured or developing a penchant for late night brawling (something which applied to the coaching staff as well).  We were all set to predict yet another Pacific Island-induced early exit for the Valleysmen. 

But things are looking up.  There still appears to be some sort of injury jinx hanging over the squad (Stoddart, Rees and Henson are out with long term injuries and Gethin Jenkins is likely to travel even though he may not play a part until the latter stages), but several long-term absentees are back in harness.  Lee Byrne is available, Adam Jones, so important to the Welsh scrum, made his comebck successfully, and Jamie Roberts and Lee 0.5p are back too.

Results have been good. Wales were competitive in Twickenham, won the reverse fixture in spite of being dominated in terms of territory and possesion, and toughed it out against a physical Argentina side. If Wales can get James Hook at his best and put him centre stage, they can surprise a few people this autumn.

The one worry is that the teams they have played so far are, shall we say, predictable, in their attacking patterns. Which is most definitely something you could not say about Samoa or Fiji. How the Welsh blitz defence will cope with hard and varied lines and runners on the shoulder is anyone’s guess. The likelihood is they won’t look half as comfortable against the Pacific teams, but can potentially score more as well.

Here’s where the setup of the team will come in – where is Jamie Roberts going to play, and can he free his hands? Can Lee Byrne discover his 2008 form? And will Hook be given charge of the team? It’s quite easy to see a scenario where the management team go with the certainty of Stephen Jones against Samoa after a ropey Hook showing against the Boks – this ia the nightmare scenario as its Hook’s quick mind, hands and feet which unlock the physical Pacific defences.

Verdict: Given Wales’ history, the draw could scarcely have been more unkind, with both Fiji and Samoa potential banana skins.  They effectively have three test level games, and all will be hugely physical, not a traditional Welsh strength. It’s not inconceivable that they could come a cropper – they struggled badly against Fiji this season, and Samoa recently toppled Australia in a remarkable game. Only as little as a fortnight ago we were leaning towards Samoa, but given Wales’ momentum, they should be able to get out of the pool, to reach a quarter final where Australia will surely beat them.

Kidney Shows Capacity for Surprise

We did not see it coming.  Tomás O’Leary, the blue-eyed boy, coached by Uncle Deccie since he was a schoolboy, given every chance – every chance – to play himself into any kind of form, is not going to the World Cup. Nor is fellow 2009 Grand Slammer and test Lion Luke Fitzgerald. The perils of trying to second guess Deccie are there for all to see. Just when you think you have him read, he pulls a huge surprise out of the bag, and backs it up with impenetrable nonsense at the press conference.

First of all, credit where it’s due. They are two seismic calls, and both are correct.  Tomás O’Leary played like a broken footballer on Sturday, to the point where he was simply a liability.  He needs to go back to Munster and start again from scratch – you find form against the Dragons and Glasgow’s of this world, not against France. In his place comes Conor Murray, a superb ball player who can travel, not just as back up, but as Ireland’s premier 9 – the tournament is now his oyster.

Luke Fitzgerald’s situation is more complicated.  He showed some sparkle in the warm up games, not least with two dashing breaks against France (he certainly outplayed Keith Earls). But dedicated full-back cover for Rob Kearney is essential, so Murphy simply had to go – although in a remarkable twist, he is only going due to this (we almost cried ourselves seeing his face). Fergus McFadden also merits his place on the plane, even if we didn’t see much of him over the last few weeks. He provides invaluable cover at centre as well as on the wing. Plus, you know what you’ll get from him, something that cannot be said for Fitzgerald in his current state. Then there’s Trimble, who is on fire. Luke just got squeezed out, and Earls may have been closer to the chop than anyone ever thought. Lets leave it at this – all of the backs on the plane have had better seasons than Luke, so on that basis, he deserves to be at home.

Elsewhere, Buckle edged out Hayes in the cripple-fight for the chance to get shunted around by the Russian pack, and Leamy and Ryan, as expected, swelled the ranks of touring blindsides, now a regular feature of Irish World Cups. We must accept that Jennings didn’t do enough when given his chance, and although McLaughlin deserved a better shot, he would not rectify the imbalance of the squad. Ryan’s selection is as a 4/6, which becomes interesting/superfluous when one reads of Fez training in the second row (and by Lord, how we need power there).

We are of the opinion that the three loss streak has played a part in this. Ireland sleepwalked through 50 minutes on Saturday, and it’s entirely possible Deccie’s intention is, at least to some extent, to light a fire under the players and jolt them into action. He’s certainly done that to us anyway – even if we predicted it. Kind of.

Anyway, hats off to the 30 going – your names are in lights below.  Fush and chups all round (2 fush for Mushy).

Ireland Rugby World Cup Squad 2011

Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster)
Isaac Boss (Terenure College/Leinster)
Tommy Bowe (Ospreys)
Tony Buckley (Sale Sharks)
Tom Court (Malone/Ulster)
Sean Cronin (Leinster)
Leo Cullen (Blackrock College/Leinster)
Gordon D’Arcy (Lansdowne/Leinster)
Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster)
Stephen Ferris (Dungannon/Ulster)
Jerry Flannery (Shannon/Munster)
Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)
Jamie Heaslip (Naas/Leinster)
Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster)
Denis Leamy (Cork Constitution/Munster)
Fergus McFadden (Old Belvedere/Leinster)
Geordan Murphy (Leicester Tigers)
Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)
Sean O’Brien (Clontarf/Leinster)
Donncha O’Callaghan (Cork Constitution/Munster)
Paul O’Connell (Young Munster/Munster)
Brian O’Driscoll (UCD/Leinster) Captain
Ronan O’Gara (Cork Constitution/Munster)
Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster)
Mike Ross (Clontarf/Leinster)
Donnacha Ryan (Shannon/Munster)
Jonathan Sexton (St. Mary’s College/Leinster)
Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster)
Paddy Wallace (Ballymena/Ulster)
David Wallace (Garryowen/Munster)

World Cup: Irelandwatch Episode 4

Geordan Murphy tweeted on wednesday night that ‘the obese lady was opening up her vocal chords’.  It didn’t take a genius to read between the lines.  Felix Jones had been given the nod for the France game, Murphy was left to tog out against Connacht, putting Jones in the box seat for the World Cup.  Geordan is of the age profile where, if he doesn’t make the World Cup, he is likely to retire.  Last night’s try-scoring  performance is likely to be his last in green.

The same, only more so, goes for John Hayes.  It looks as if the Irish management are willing Buckley to be the player they believe he can be, and are giving him every chance to show something – anything! – to get him on the plane.  Hayes, unlike Murphy, is incapable of the sort of eye-catching performance that would demand he be picked – indeed the scrum was dire last night, and it’s increasingly a case of ‘who is the least terrible’.  In one sense though you can sympathise with Deccie – Hayes can’t produce any more, at least Mushy might.  If the Bruff man doesn’t make the cut, the game against Connacht is likely to be his last ever game of senior rugby.  In many ways it’s a fittingly fanfare-free way for him to bow out. 

Wednesday’s team sheets gave us – at last – an insight into Deccie’s thinking.  Indeed, it all but named his squad.  For the likes of Jennings, McLaughlin and Fergus McFadden, it effectively shut the door on their World Cup chances (injuries notwithstanding).  Donncha Ryan appears all but certain to go.  It’s a remarkable call – Ryan has just a single Heineken Cup start to his name, and it was one in which he singularly failed to impress (he was immediately dropped for Mick O’Driscoll).  Similarly, Leamy is nailed on in spite of a wild, indisciplined season just gone.  Meanwhile, Kevin McLaughlin has barely been given a chance to stake a claim.  It looked curtains for Jennings too, but Wally’s injury might give him an unexpected chance to impress.  It is probably too late for him, but let’s hope he can at least give Deccie something to think about.

At scrum half, Conor Murray was rewarded for his confident French cameo with 30 minutes against Connacht and is now odds against – Deccie has perhaps decided Boss’s experience is what is required, in spite of never fancying him before. Curious.

France beckons tomorrow, and this time there can be few positives if Ireland lose.  After two defeats, Ireland need to beat a mixed France team (they’re never the same without Dusatoir) to build confidence.  Oh, and some meet and greet with the opposition’s whitewash wouldn’t go amiss either.

World Cup Preview: South Africa

Group D Opposition: Wales, Samoa, Fiji, Namibia

Pedigree: Very impressive. Not invited to the first two tournaments because of the whole apartheid thing, they promptly and memorably won it all at the first attempt (with a little help from Suzie) and repeated the trick in France in 2007. Two wins from four is the best hit ratio of them all.

Players to watch: He might be behind Moondust Steyn and Spear James in the reckoning for the 10 shirt, but Patrick Lambie is the most exciting youngster in South African rugby right now, and if the Bokke look more one dimensional than usual, he could make an impact from the bench. Jean de Villiers might not have impressed Mick O’Driscoll much, but he is half of one of the best centre partnerships in the world, and will be anxious to impress after missing the 2003 edition, and most of 2007 one, through injury. In 2009, Heinrich Brussouw tortured the Lions and has been laid up since – if he hits form, he will create the breakdown mayhem Saracens South Africa will need to progress. Bismarck du Plessis is the best hooker in the world (sorry, Sean Cronin fans).

Good tournament: With their pedigree, signing off a great team by retaining the trophy would be nice.

Bad tournament: Ireland have a decent record against the Boks of late, and losing to Paddy Wallace and co. in the quarter final won’t go down well in the highveldt.

Prospects: It may seem astonishing now, but in the run up to the 2007 tournament, the general feeling was the Springboks were a bit too callow and inconsistent to take home the trophy. In the event, the side, suberbly marshalled by John Smit with a little help from Botha, Matfield and du Preez, steamed home. Only England in the final gave them a game, although the Tongans gave their reserves a few dicey moments.

That set forth a 3 year domination of world rugby, encompassing 3 Super Rugby titles (including the Bulls just before RWC07), a Tri-Nations and a Lions tour victory. 2009 was their peak, when they followed the Lions win by beating the All Blacks 3 times.

However, since then, they have gradually ran out of puff, and are facing down the barrel of a first ever Tri-Nations whitewash. Their old guard are looking less durable than ever, and the younger men aren’t demanding to step into the shirt. The team is backboned by triple Super Rugby winners the Blue Bulls, who put together a defiant run in the latter stages of this years Super Rugby, but then failed to make the play-offs with a limp loss at home to the Sharks in the last day of the regular season.

Ironically then, its a Sharks player who is the biggest problem – the captain John Smit. Due to Bismarck’s consistent excellence, Smit is being shoe-horned into the team at tight-head, but to the detriment of the scrum. As evidenced by the humiliation of being shoved around Durban by the Australian pack.

Ally this to the comically mis-named Beast, injured stalwarts like Juan Smith and Fourie du Preez, no defined 10, and a far-from-intimidating collection of outside backs, and things do not look rosey. They still hit the rucks harder than any other team and will play a tactically simple but very effective bosh and boot game, aiming to contest the breakdown agressively and grind teams down, but it’s exhausting, and you must wonder are the bodies still able.

Verdict: The pool is likely to be about as dangerous as an Ian Humphreys tackle. The talented Samoans will fancy taking one of the big guns, but muscle memory and physical power alone should get the Boks through with 4 wins. After that, it’s going to be Ireland in a quarter-final. That is going to be one of the best games of the tournament, but without pre-empting our Ireland preview, whoever wins will be swatted aside by New Zealand. One way or another, this great Springbok team is going to run out of road. We’ll always have the Second Lions Test in 2009 – the team’s zenith, and one of the best games of all time.

World Cup Preview: USA & Russia

Group C Opposition: Australia, Ireland, Italy

Pedigree: Having been at every tournament except 1995, the Eagles are respected members of rugby’s second tier. They have two wins in RWC history, both against Japan. Regular tests against professional B-teams due to the Churchill Cup means they are well-steeled. Russia are here for the first time, although they declined an invitation (as the Soviet Union) to compete in 1987. Bizarrely, they have a win against the Barbarians on their CV, 29-23 in their first international as Russia in 1992. The USA are also reigning Olympic champions (albeit from 1924).

Players to watch: Those who watch their rugby only on YouTube will point to Takwudza Ngwenya as one of the best wingers in world rugby, while others call him an overrated sprinter who once outpaced another overrated sprinter. Highly-regarded Highlanders wing James Paterson is a much better player, and he actually has a reason to wear a USA shirt, having gone to school in Colorado, and captained the USA at underage. Trinity College Dublin lock and captain Scott LaValla has just signed for Stade Francais – a step down in our opinion.

There is also a Southside connection in the Russia squad – with former Blackrock College flyer, and newly-minted Northampton Saint, Vasily Armetiev Roysh on the wing. Leinster briefly scooped up Artemiev alongside his school-mates Luke Fitzgerald and Niall Morris for the Academy, but he didn’t make the grade (although he did play U-19 for Ireland). Artemiev will be joined in the Premiership by lock Andrei Ostrikov, who will be helpng Mushy blow the Sale Sharks kebab budget. One who did get to put on a Leinster shirt was the Russian-sounding Adam Byrnes, a Melbourne Rebel who qualified under the Granny Rule – though presumably not Granny Byrnes.

Good Tournament: Very easy – the aim is to win against one another. And hopefully not get too embarrassed by the big guns.

Bad Tournament: Not winning against one another.

Prospects: The contrast between these sides as rugby nations is very interesting. American rugby hotbeds tend to be swish colleges in well-to-do suburbs – Rhode Island, Connecticut or California. Russia, on the other hand, has its egg-chasing centre of influence in Krasnoyarsk – a grimy Siberian hell-hole better known for industrial pollution and decrepit nuclear weapon storage. It’s hard to imagine a greater contrast in world rugby then the pampered trust fund frat boys of the US team and the hard-bitten Russkies, except of course that between the tough, honest warriors of Limerick and the flakey posh dandies of D4.

Russia very much buck the trend of Eastern European rugby – that is, they eschew the 8 man game played by Georgia and Romania in favour of something more expansive. It’s a laudable ambition but seems rather counter-intuitive in a country where weightlifting is so popular. They were far from disgraced in a 54-19 defeat to Northampton, which included 19 points given up when a man down in the first half (they were just 26-12 down at half-time), and also play the Dragons and the Ospreys, both this week.

In recent years, they have been fully integrated into the global IRB schedule, and will be familiar with other second tier nations. They have a scalp of Romania in Bucharest on their CV, but have fallen short repeatedly against Georgia, Canada and the US, and endured a 72 point beating by Japan last year.  This may be one RWC too soon for them, but there is a feeling they could be a force in the future.  Remarkably, there is a professional league in Russia, and the sport’s recently acquired Olympic status has given it access to state funding and top class facilities (Russian schools can only play Olympic sports).  There is a huge will to grow the sport in the country.

The USA play to a pretty consistent template – domestic (typically college) players with a smattering of Europe-based pros who are familiar with what is required to not disgrace themselves against Test opposition. They are perfect for Eddie’s hands-on coaching style – the American sporting psyche very much likes an overarching dictator imposing his will on the team – and will be better off for his big tournament experience (stop sniggering at the back!).

The US have been putting themselves up against Six Nations B sides (or Wolfhounds or whatever) in the Churchill Cup for a while, but haven’t quite got the giant-killing factor nailed down – they haven’t any notable wins from 9 years of the series, which has now been discontinued. What they do have is money, high-tech facilities and a man who was being touted as the next Lions coach this time 4 years ago. The 9/11 game against Ireland will be emotional for the players and also for the coach, who will have to watch as the men he overlooked in 2007 put their hands up for the Wallabies game.

Verdict: If this was 1972 and it was a basketball (or chess) game, the world would be watching. Regretably it’s 2011 and rugby, and the audience is likely to comprise two men, a dog, Egg Chaser and Mini Egg. Russia look exciting and are attracting a lot of positive media coverage, but the USA are more solid, and should win. Regarding the rest of the group, the Eagles caused England, Samoa and Tonga a few awkward moments in 2003, so Ireland or Italy might struggle to put them away, but should in the end. Russia’s open gameplan could end in humiliation against the Wallaby reserves and possibly Ireland, although we tend to get dragged down to the level of inferior teams.

World Cup Preview: Italy

Group C Opposition: Australia, Ireland, USA and Russia

Pedigree: Not good.  Italy have never really brought the ferocity with which they play in the Six Nations to bear on a World Cup.  They have never been in the quarter finals before.

Players to watch: Italy’s hopes tend to rest on the impressive shoulders of one extraordinary man.  Sergio Parisse is the world’s premier Number 8; the phenomenal combination of glue-like hands, ferocious physicality and insatiable desire to win mke him the sort of player it is just a pleasure to watch.  He is helped out in the backrow by the excellent lieutenant Alessandro Zanni.  Italy need a bunch of backs to capitalise on the forward power, and they will be hoping that Tomasso Benvenuti and Andrea Masi will provide a spark of creativity to turn pressure into tries, and hopefully Fabio Semenzato follows through on an excellent 6 Nations.
Good tournament: They need to beat Ireland and make the quarter finals.

Bad tournament: If they go out in the group stages it will be a disappointment.

Prospects: Italy are in the best shape they have ever been in, and they have a reasonable chance of achieving their aim.  The days of the 60-minute Italian performance have been banished, and the Italian players are now fit and able for the full 80. Indeed, they staged late rallies this year to defeat France and scare Ireland. Gone, also, is the awful first-up tackling that allowed opponents to rack up scores with minimal creativity.  They won’t go down easily.

This is Nick Mallet’s last tournament in charge, and the players will surely want to do their marvellous coach justice. They need a couple of things to go in their favour.  They need Australia to beat Ireland, preferably handsomely, thereby making the final game in Dunedin a winner-takes-all shootout, the very type of occasion that will make Ireland edgy.  Then they need a rainy day in Dunedin (not a whole lot to ask for, by all accounts) and as many scrums as possible.  Then all bets are off.

Where they lack is at fly-half and in remaining composed in clutch situations.  They should have beaten Ireland in the Six Nations (Wales too), but when the pressure was on, they fudged a restart and allowed Ireland into drop goal territory.  Meanwhile, the search for the next Diego Dominguez goes on. Following Craig Gower’s injury (and subsequent code switch), and Kyle Burton being banished, Luciano Orquera will be the man responsibe for guiding Italy from the pivot role.  He will need to shape up and fast if Italy are to finally make an impact at a World Cup.

Verdict: Almost certain to come down to a nailbiting finish, but we suspect they’ll probably come up just short. 3rd in group.

World Cup: Irelandwatch Episode 3

Just 10 days remain until Kidney names his World Cup squad, and last week’s performance and this week’s team announcment give us a little insight – but not too much – into who is likely to go and who isn’t.

On the surface, it all looks rosy for Donncha Ryan, who, having played in the second row last week,  is now given a chance at 6, and so can prove his versatility and bag himself a spot on the plane.  But think forward to next week, and the backrow could be something like Locky-Wallace-Heaslip, and the complexion would look somewhat different.  Would you rather play at home to France with Jamie and Wally beside you and Paul O’Connell in the second row, or go to Bordeaux with no O’Connell and Leamy at 8?

The same applies, to a lesser extent, to McFadden, who didn’t play well last week and finds himself out of the team – but next week in all likelihood BOD will be back.  If he was to play 12 inside BOD it would be seen as an endorsement of his chances. So it’s not all over quite yet for Ferg, though he looks odds-against at the moment.

Following the team announcement and last Saturday’s game we can infer a little about who’s looking good and who isn’t.

Practicing ordering fush’n’chups: All the back three. Rob Kearney came through 80 minutes and looked sharp.  He gets another start on Saturday.  Already a Kidney favourite, he can start laying a claim on the 15 shirt for the Australia game.  Luke Fitz looked a lot more confident, and though he kicked the ball away a little too often, he wasn’t exactly blessed with options by the time the painfully slow ball he was supplied with. Andy Trimble played with great intensity, as usual. All three look to be heading southwards next month.

Still hanging on the telephone: Donncha Ryan did reasonably well on saturday, but he will have a tough job on Saturday convincing that he’s an international 6. He’s up against Thierry Dusatoir dans la sud de France, so no pressure.  Jerry Flannery’s return was positive, but all he did was miss one throw. We need to see some of the old Jirry mongrel before declaring him back for good.

Buying their Electric Picnic tickets: It looks like Peter Stringer’s terrific international career may finally be up.  Sent to La Rochelle to play with Munster, he is the only scrum half yet to see action for Ireland.  Unless he starts at home to France next week, which he won’t, then the game will be up.  Shane Jennings always needed to make a big impression to win Kidney over, and injury looks to have robbed him of that chance. We are presuming Wally will get a start next week in the 7 shirt, with Jenno togging out against Connacht.  A pity.

As for the game itself, it could be a long night for Ireland.  It’s not the most defensively robust 9-10-12-13 Ireland have ever put out and Mermoz and Marty will most likely look to run at the goalposts and hope for some change.  Keep an eye out for the French debutant, Biarritz No. 8, Raphael Lakafia.  We haven’t seen too much of him, but he’s regarded as a huge prospect and someone who could star at the World Cup.

Finally, Meejawatch.  It was interesting that Brendan Fanning and not Gerry Thornley had the inside track on the team this week.  Could Kidney be playing them against each other?  Gerry will have to up his uncritical fawning over the regime and justification of tactics and selection, no matter how bogus, to get back into Teacher’s good books.

World Cup Preview: Australia

Group C Opposition: Ireland, Italy, USA, Russia

Pedigree: More than respectable – took Bill home in 1991 and 1999, each time the outstanding team in the competition. Dragged to the final in 2003 (and almost won it) by their outstanding half-back combination – George Gregan’s refrain of “Four more years mate” in the semi will freeze Kiwi blood for a very long time.

Players to watch: [WoC Ed: Just look at the age of these lads …] Gregan’s spiritual successor Will Genia (23) is the man who makes the Wallabies tick, although it’s Quade Cooper (23) who gets the headlines – though, with footwork like he has, its kind of deserved. Outside them you have the similarly talented Kurtley Beale (22) and James O’Connor (21). All 4 won’t even be at their peak until 2019 – be afraid, be very afraid.

Good Tournament: This time last year, a semi-final may have been acceptable. After keeping pace with NZ throughout last season, followed by the Reds Super Rugby success this year, its looks like a final appearance is the minimum requirement.

Bad Tournament: Being put out by any team that doesn’t copy that funny pre-match dance Munster patented in 2008.

Prospects: After throwing their toys out of the pram following an Andrew Sheridan-inspired destruction in 2007, Australia paradoxically managed to get running rugby banned by the IRB for 2 years. Luckily, everyone saw sense, and the emasculation of Morne Steyn has coincided with an upturn in Aussie fortunes, helped, of course, by the emerging talent mentioned above.

Robbie Deans has patiently been building towards this tournament for a while – as recently as 2009, they only won one Tri-Nations match. In that tournament, Deans blooded some of the players that now backbone his team, included Cooper, O’Connor, Genia, David Pocock and Ben Alexander.

From 6 back, they have a huge amount of options – even captain Rocky Elsom is under serious pressure for his place from the superb Scott Higginbotham, whose Tri-Nations appearances off the bench have been outstanding. And in the back division, they have piles of creativity and danger – as we write, Matt Giteau can’t make the 22, and Berrick Barnes’ un-retirement is a footnote. The problems lie further forward. Like Ireland, they have only two props who can scrummage, and Deans has found it difficult to settle on a hooker and second row combination – they can occasionally get mauled up front, and there are only so many times you can turn that around.

In a tournament like this, there is always a requirement to tough out games, particularly at the business end, which may not suit the Wallabies – the semi-final against England or France already looks like a flashing warning light. Despite the advancement in the last two years, 2015 is probably a more realistic target.

Verdict: They should beat Ireland, and will have to dig deep to negotiate a very tricky semi-final (especially if France click), but New Zealand will be a bridge too far. Beaten finalists.

World Cup Preview: Georgia and Romania

Group B Opposition: Argentina, England, Scotland

Pedigree: The World Cups started too late for Romania, who were a force in the amateur game, regularly winning against the Six Nations sides. They have been left behind since the late 1980s and the dawn of professionalism / being allowed to leave the country after Ceacescu was strung up with piano wire. Georgia were a success in 2007, thrashing Namibia and holding Argentina to 6-3 at half time, while the memory of Ireland beating them by no more than a held-up TMO decision will remain seared into the collective conciousness of Irish rugby forever.

Players to watch: Your appreciation for these two sides essentially boils down to one question: do you like scrummaging?  The Top 14 is awash with Georgian props, and at least two of them, Clermont’s Zirakashvili and Toulon’s Kubriashvili, are world class. The good news for Georgia is that they have more than just a scrum, and in brutish Montpellier flanker Mamuka Gorgodze, they have a backrow beast who will wreak havoc wherever possible. Romania’s star asset is the tough and – let’s face it – dirty Perpignan hooker Marius Tincu. Watch your eyes, chaps.
Good tournament: Romania will be looking to escape with their dignity intact. Georgia, however, will be looking for a win over Romania, and to make life awkward for the big boys.

Bad tournament: Letting the scoreboards run up too easily will upset either of these feisty nations.

Prospects: Rugby’s popularity in Georgia is thought to be a result of its proximity to an ancient traditional game called ‘Lelo Burti’ (pictured right; it translates as ‘field ball’) where a non-specific number of large men from neighbouring villages compete to carry a heavy ball over the opposing village’s river creek. And, back in the day, they used decrepit old Soviet tractors as scrum machines. Notice is thus served of how Georgia intend to play in New Zealand. They’ll be hoping for rain lashed boggy pitches, and as many scrums as possible.

The fixture list has given them a good chance of causing an upset.  They have Scotland up first, and indications are that they are targeting them for a serious shock. The Scots are entering the World Cup somewhat undercooked, and would want to be mindful, or their river creek could be in jeopardy.

It should be noted that Georgia are the 7th best team in Europe, and Scotland are 5th at best – plus 9 of the squad (all forwards, surprisingly) play regular Top 14 rugby – they aren’t no-hopers by any stretch of the imagination. And they are coached by former Scotland coach Richie Dixon, who was enticed to Tbilisi after the notoriously penny-pinching SRU handed him his cards in 2009 – it’s just too good a story not to happen, isn’t it?

For Romania, things look less promising. A few years back, they knocked off Italy, and again ran them close in France 2007, but they have regressed. Their route to the World Cup was something of a struggle, including a loss at home to Portugal, before ultimately overcoming Uruguay to qualify.  If they can keep the scores down, and get a few players noticed by some upwardly mobile French clubs it will be an achievement.

Verdict: Georgia will beat Romania, and while they won’t beat Scotland, they’ll give them a right good scare. Romania will go home empty handed.

World Cup Preview: Scotland

Group B Opposition: Argentina, England, Georgia, Romania

Pedigree: Perennial quarter-finalists, never once failing to make the last eight. In 1991, they went one better, and were a Gavin Hastings shanked kick away from the final. Last time out, they nearly took Argentina from the long grass.

Players to watch: Lets be honest, this Scotland squad is pretty low on inspiration. However, that isn’t to say they are hopeless. In Richie Gray, they have a man who will be a Lion in 2 years time, and who the pack will be built around for many years to come. Sean Lamont is a rare example of a leader in Andy Robinson’s team – his criticism of his team-mates during last years 6 Nations showed he was willing to step up. Another potential Lion is Max Evans out wide.

Good Tournament: Given the amount of gloom currently hanging over them, a quarter-final would be seen as an achievement, although a 50 point demolition by the All Blacks is a dubious reward.

Bad Tournament: Giving Argentina and England decent games is the baseline, even if they get edged out in both, but if they come close to humiliation against Romania or (especially) Georgia, Scottish hearts will sink even further.

Prospects: Whiff of Cordite sat in Croker in 2010 and watched in astonishment as the Killer B’s dealt with the much-vaunted Irish back row with ease. That really should have completed a deserved Triple Crown for the Scots – a one in a million collapse against Wales and a draw against England  were both games that should have been won. Come November, when they followed it up with victory over South Africa – their second Southern Hemisphere scalp in two years – we were expecting a big 6 Nations.

But it didn’t happen. Andy Robinson took a step back and let the team take it to the next level – sink or swim time. And boy did they sink. A decent second half against a disinterested France and taking advantage of indiscipline to run Ireland close were as good as it got. At least they beat Italy, but the tournament was hugely disappointing, with the performance against Wales in Murrayfield among the worst test performances in living memory.

After that, Robbo withdrew what passes for his big guns from ML action, targetting the World Cup. Allowing for summer rustiness, a last minute win over (at best) the Ireland reserves was just better than unacceptable. Next up is Italy, then its playing the firsts into form against Romania and (gulp) Georgia. It’s eerily similar to Ireland’s preparation in 2007, and just ask Eddie how that turned out. Mind you, at least they’re skipping the Polish cryotherapy chambers and the Bayonne day trip.

This really is a make or break tournament for Scotland – they pretty much got the best draw possible, and are under pressure to take advantage of it, something they haven’t thrived under in the past. If they do blow-up, Robbo will likely head back home, and it’s back to the drawing board once more.

Verdict: Things are not looking hot. England will have too much, and Argentina should beat them in a mucky kick-fest. The real dread in Scottish hearts is what the Georgians might do to them – it’s safe to argue that Scotland have the worst scrum in Group B. If they manage to dispatch Georgia comfortably, they might just have the confidence to take on the Pumas and battle through. We don’t think it will happen though. A proud record to come to an end – out at the first hurdle.