I Want My Rotation Back

Joe Schmidt is not rotating his squad for the Italy match.  The squad-building we so wanted (and really expected) to see is not happening.  Jim’s not dying and Dr. Sinnott’s not gone deaf.  I was thinking of two completely different people.

The only change is partly enforced, with Henderson coming in to replace Peter O’Mahony, who is not risked ahead of the France match, as he recovers from a hamstring injury.  It obviously makes sense not to risk O’Mahony, and Henderson presumably gets the vote ahead of Ruddock for his potentially explosive ball-carrying.  Ireland lack power-athletes in the pack in O’Brien’s absence and Henderson – although still raw and occasionally penalty expensive – provides just that.

It’s a slightly disappointing move from a coach who has shown himself adept at using his squad and making good horse-for-course choices in the past.  We can understand the desire to allow Johnny Sexton to play the England match out of his system before the Parisian showdown, and Luke Marshall’s injury certainly robbed Schmidt of a chance to switch things up at centre, but it looks like a missed opportunity to freshen things up and allow the next wave of players the chance to put pressure on the incumbents. Deccie was assuredly (and rightly) excorciated for making zero non-injury enforced changes in 2012 – Schmidt has made just one so far (Dorce for Bamm-Bamm for the Wales game), and it’s pretty disappointing.

Is it a case of Schmidt losing his nerve?  He has talked about using a squad, and mooted changes ahead of the England game, but in the end didn’t make any.  Having lost that match, has he perhaps lost a touch of adventurous spirit?  It certainly looks like a missed opportunity, not least to take Marty Moore’s development a step further.  Any Italian scrum deserves respect, but Moore has shown himself to be up to task against all-comers this season, although Mike Ross appears to have overcome his early-season difficulties with the new scrum calls.

And yawnsome as it’s becoming, the case for Simon Zebo, at least off the bench, was never more compelling.  If Ireland harbour title ambitions, which surely they do, they must be aware of the importance of points difference, and teams with little in the way of out-and-out pace tend not to run in bundles of tries against even mediocre opposition.  Simon Zebo coming off the bench against tired legs would surely be the last thing the Italians would want to see.

It’s a conservative move from Schmidt, and while we should win regardless, it leaves us with a slight sense of deflation ahead of kick-off.

by whiffofcordite on March 6, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Ireland, Joe Schmidt, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on March 6, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/03/06/i-want-my-rotation-back/

Four Plus Two Nations

If this Six Nations has yet to produce any truly classic matches, it has at least risen above the torpor of the last couple of seasons – the three middle game weeks were appalling last season, for example.  The weather has been largely favourable and the standard of play has been decent, for the most part.  It has also provided us with a uniquely intriguing endgame, where four teams share the lead with two wins from the opening three games.  Talk about up for grabs; any of England, France, Wales and Ireland can win it – with all this competition it’s almost like the .. err .. Five Nations used to be.  The championship will almost certainly come down to two matches: England vs. Wales this weekend and France vs. Ireland, the last game in the tournament.  The match in Twickenham will rule out one of England and Wales, but provided Ireland and France can overcome the might of Italy and Scotland this weekend, they’ll join them on three wins and any of three teams will go into the final weekend as potential champions.

It’s hard to call.  England are probably marginal favourites.  They look the best team of the series and they have home advantage in their crucial game against Wales.  Wales themselves are the outsiders; they have yet to spark and look jaded, their points difference isn’t looking great and beating England in Twickenham looks tricky for them – despite them being the BEST TEAM EVER ©BBC.  Ireland have looked good (admittedly at a very narrow subset of competencies i.e. technical forward play), and their points difference is very healthy, but they have to win in Paris, which almost never happens (once in our lifetime).

But here’s the bizarre bit; totally misfiring, abject, awful, bickering France are in a pretty good position.  They have two games left against teams they habitually beat.  This weekend they travel to Murayfield.  Scotland may have won against Italy, but against the better sides they have been inept, accruing six points in aggregate against Ireland and England.  Even in third gear, presumably fighting with one another and relying on Picamoles to bail them out, France should win at a canter.  Then they play Ireland in Paris.  The last two matches between the sides have been drawn, but playing Ireland has a habit of bringing the best out in them.  Can even this rubbish French team find a faster tempo and run Ireland ragged as so many previous vintages have done?  Doubtful, but you never know – Ireland have a habit of standing off the handsome Mediterraneans like a bunch of hewn demi-Gods and letting them do whatever they want – and France like nothing better, apart from maybe a spooked New Zealander in a crucial World Cup game.

Aside: we really need to get out of that habit – when the RWC15 draw was made we said we had three years to learn how to beat France – we’ve made a good start, time to follow through.

For the sake of the championship one hopes France do not win.  Unless France find some inspiration from somewhere, they would be a most unworthy winner.  Indeed, it looks like their win over England could be the defining result of the championship, and with the benefit of hindsight, we can now see it bordered on the freakish.  England must be kicking themselves, especially after watching the tape of a mediocre Welsh side dispatch Les Bleus with ease.  Against England, France raced into a somewhat fortuitous early lead as England looked jittery and tentative – Jack Nowell in particular, but the bounces of the oval ball were pretty favourable to the home side.  However, England dominated the remainder of the match and were easily the superior side, fighting back to deservedly take the lead.  They had the game won, until an ill-advised switch at 9 (by England, the French switch was 100% advisable) and an extraordinary, totally unexpected and really quite brilliant try from Gael Fickou stole it at the death.  It was a try that never looked like coming, but it has given France something to play for, and has stopped England from racing away from the chasing pack.

What about Scotland and Italy? Last season looked like they might have taken a tentative step away from being perennial basement dwellers, but an ageing pack and still-too-young backs isn’t a good combination for Italy and useless coaching and mystifying selections isn’t working for Scotland. Transition, then, for both, a familiar state.

by whiffofcordite on March 5, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in England, France, Ireland, Six Nations, Wales, Wales are overrated

Posted by whiffofcordite on March 5, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/03/05/four-plus-two-nations/

Sure Isn’t It Great We Have All Of Them

So here we are – we are entering squeaky bum time in the Six Nations, and Ireland are on top of the table. Sweet, we’d have taken that, even if the England game was ultimately a disappointment. Sure, we probably aren’t favourites – the fine yeomen of Stuart Lancaster’s rosy-cheeked people’s commune probably deserve that honour given their tougher game is in the Cabbage Patch. We have to go to the Stade de France and face those olive-skinned, chisel-jawed, suave and nonchalant bleus  – where with the merest insouciant lean on the goalpost, Gauloise in hand, the Frenchman generally makes the Irish rugger man weak at the knees and porous in defence. Still, we have it in our hands – if we deal with Italy the way we should and win any way in Paree, its unlikely to matter what the rest get up to. Additionally, unlike in 2007, the timing of the fixtures is assuredly in our favour, with our game last on the final day.

So, home to Italy (Six Nations record for this fixture: P7 W7 points difference +143) and away to France (Six Nations record for this fixture: P7 W1 D1 L5 points difference -97) – looks like the second game will be tougher. We’d want to be making sure our players are in tip-top condition for the hair-raising bus ride through the banlieues of Saint-Denis, right? You’d think so. And Ireland haven’t had many ‘on-the-run injuries so far, which has allowed Schmidt to keep personnel changes to a minimum so far.  Much like in 2009, it would appear to be prime time for rotating a few players.

Back then, Deccie gave a rest day to Jirry, Jamie Heaslip, Tomas O’Leary and Paddy Wallace in favour of Besty, Denis Leamy, Strings and Dorce – and the only other semi-convincing rotation option would have been Geordy Murphy for Bob, to which he apparently gave strong consideration but ultimately decided might risk over-rotating. It was a shrewd managerial move; it concentrated minds on Scotland when the temptation for excited minds was to fast-forward to the decider in Cardiff and fostered competition for places and a feeling of involvement for those on the fringes of the team.  Crucially, he did it only where he knew there was little between those coming in and those going out, though on reflection perhaps he got lucky that Denis Leamy got injured, harsh as that may sound.  Heaslip had been Ireland’s best player and it looked borderline foolhardy to leave him out, and in the event he came on early for Leamy, had a stormer and scored the winning try.

Right now, the Milky Bar Kid could conceivably change 10 of team – we’re blessed with many more options, even without Fez, Sean O’Brien and all our wingers. Of course, he’s unlikely to do that, because such a massive scalpel to the team is fraught with risk – just look at this time 12 months ago.  England rotated a couple of names in and out of the team in the exact corresponding fixture last year; home to Italy in round four.  They were looking to win the Championship too – in fact they were looking for a Grand Slam – but the move backfired.  One of those coming in to the team was Danny Care, who had been sensational off the bench in the previous game against France, but starting the match seemed to derail him.  The iconic image of him kicking the ball backwards in his own 22 lingers in the memory.  England found themselves hanging on for a fortuitous victory and they carried the anti-momentum through to the final match where they were thrashed by a rampant Wales.  So, the message is clear: rotate sensibly and respect Italy!

So what can we expect? All three of the front row backups will be hopeful of playing, but we can’t see such wholesale change – Marty Moore looks the only one odds-on to start, and might even be auditioning for the shirt in France. With Besty such a key man on the ground and in the maul, it’s likely Joe will leave him in and let Sean Cronin be content with 30 minutes provided the game is won by then. Jack McGrath for DJ Church is a possible – Schmidt has shown trust in McGrath before and often rotated Healy at Leinster.  But in O’Brien’s absence Healy is our best ball carrier and while McGrath is also strong in this facet of play, it looks like too much of a risk.

In the row, Devin Toner has been one of the success stories of the championship, but it mightn’t be a bad idea to give him a rest here, with either NWJMB or Donnacha Ryan to come in. Ryan/POC is a more established partnership, but Henderson is in better form and has more time in camp – we think he could get the nod, and if he grabs this opportunity the next coach to drop him for Ireland might be Ronan O’Gara for RWC27.  Against all that, Henderson is almost the prototype impact substitute for the modern game, and Schmidt may stick with his first-choice partnership in order to unleash NWJMB against tiring legs.

With Peter O’Mahony an injury doubt, it’s essential someone is practising the anthems angrily in front of a mirror – it’s hard to know where Ireland would be without his unique brand of tuneless pre-game anger. If O’Mahony is in any way doubtful, it would seem foolish indeed to risk him ahead of the Paris match.  He’s become a cornerstone of the team, even if England dealt with his threat impressively, and will be badly needed for the final game in the series. If he’s fit he’ll play, but if not Rhys Ruddock would be a solid deputy.  With Chris Henry possibly Ireland’s player of the series to date (certainly he is the most consistent) and Jamie Heaslip peerless at eight (and Tommy O’Donnell injured in any case), we can’t envisage any more than one backrow change.

For the half-back pairing, the game has probably come too soon for Eoin Reddan, and, at any rate, we think he might make a change at fly-half and better to keep Murray in there for some continuity. Is Johnny Sexton out for up to six weeks, as claimed by Racing Metro? Unlikely. Is he fully fit and 100% ready for an international game? Equally unlikely, given he didn’t play this weekend. O’Reilly in the ST pointed out that Sexton had played 38 games in the last nine months, and he should be managed. Can Ireland beat Italy at home with Wee PJ manning the ship? Of course they can. We’ll need Sexton for France, so let’s be sensible.  We can have him on the bench in case it all goes to pot.

The centres will be the same.  Brian O’Driscoll no longer looks infallible, but he showed against England that he still has the class, but he needs a bit of help from those around him.  This looked a prime opportunity to get Luke Marshall into the team, and Ireland could really do with his strong running and pace, but his old concussion issues have resurfaced with particularly awful timing.  We can’t imagine how frustrating it is for him, and Schmidt.

Out wide, the call for change is most compelling.  For all the honest endeavour of Andrew Trimble and Little Bob, we could do with some pace and penetration, and obviously the internet needs little opportunity to discuss Simon Zebo. Have either of the starters done anything specific to deserve being dropped? No, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t make a change to strengthen the team. Tommy Bowe looked in regal form on his return on Friday night, and although he played just 40 minutes, we thought he’d go straight back in; but he hasn’t made the squad.  Maybe it’s just too early for him, but it must have been really tempting to just go for it.  Luke Fitzgerald’s wretched luck continues, so it means a timely recall for Simon Zebo.  Everyone wants to see the happy-go-lucky flyer in green, and not just because we are all exhausted discussing whether his possible defensive, workrate and celebratory deficiencies are what are keeping him out of the squad.  Internet, you can have a rest now!  A full-scale return to the First XV is probably still unlikely, but he could knock McFadden off the bench.

So we reckon in will come Moore, Henderson, Ruddock and Jackson, with returns to the bench for Ryan, Reddan and Zebo. That should shake it up a little. It worked for Deccie in 2009, no reason to think it isn’t the best approach five long years later.  Ireland should beat Italy, and hopefully at least one or two of those selected can at least make their case for the crucial trip to Paris.

by whiffofcordite on March 3, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Deccie Kidney, Ireland, Joe Schmidt, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on March 3, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/03/03/sure-isnt-it-great-we-have-all-of-them/

Still in the Hunt

Bosh! Ireland’s Grand Slam ambitions came unstuck at the hands of the Awesome Power of England’s pack – but it was a close-run thing, and it bore plenty of lessons for the tasks ahead for Team Schmidt.

Our success against Scotland and, particularly, Wales was predicated on potent mauling and successful counter-rucking. Problem was, on Saturday, Ireland didn’t try mauling with any regularity until the second half, and England protected their own ball aggressively at the breakdown. The decline in prominence of Peter O’Mahony from Ireland’s signature player of the first two weeks of the Six Nations (aside: when it became clear the BBC producers hadn’t got the memo about POM’s anthem-singing gusto, perhaps the writing was on the wall) was a direct result of the breakdown work of the English.

The set pieces were a success for Ireland, but England managed to restrict the influence of the scrum and lineout enough to ensure they wouldn’t be a platform for dominance. Ireland tended to use the lineout to go wide, in contrast to previous games, and it didn’t really work.

As well as our backrow have been playing, it seemed inevitable that we would one day lament the absence of Sean O’Brien and Fez. Saturday was the day – we didn’t have anyone capable of bulldozing a path through the middle, and we also lacked pace and penetration out wide. Oh for a Luke Fitzgerald, Tommy Bowe or even a Simon Zebo. Fitzgerald should at least be in the reckoning for Italy, and Zebo should have enough matchtime to be considered as well (if a lack of gametime truly is the reason he isn’t being considered) – indeed having Zebo on the bench might have given Ireland, at the very least, an X-factor they lacked in Twickers.

In the first half against Scotland, Ireland kicked pretty loosely – while the trundling Scots couldn’t take advantage, Mike Brown certainly did when we repeated the trick in Twickers. He was the games, and the tournament to dates, most influential player and his break set up the game-winning score for Danny Care. Joe Schmidt values accuracy of execution above all else, and Ireland didn’t do too well – 20+ tackles were missed, the ball was hoofed or chipped away aimlessly at times, and even the saintly BOD was attempting Hollywood offloads that didn’t stick.

In terms of the bench, it didn’t have the impact we needed, and even in its role as injury cover, wasn’t utilized. When Johnny Sexton appeared to get a knock with half an hour to go, Wee PJ stayed kicking his heels. Sure, Sexton is a key player in the team, but he is also human, and Sexton’s decision-making went down a notch in the closing quarter.

Yet in spite of all that, Ireland were in with a shout of a draw by the end (the lack of penetration in the team had surely killed off the chances of a win) – Joubert somehow called an Irish scrum for a scrum penalty that looked Ireland’s lifeline. They hung in there against the English physicality and intensity and nearly got their rewards. Admittedly, the prime butchery of at least 3 tries (Jonny May dropping the ball early on and eschewing a dive for the line for a turn inside just after Bob’s try, and the failure to take advantage of a 3-on-0 when under the posts) played a part, but you can’t control that. And the English defence was excellent – its worth doffing the cap to the Awesome Power of Courtney Lawes, who seemed to be everywhere in the last ten minutes.

So lots to work on – but some positives too. Its incredibly difficult to come to Twickers and win, and Ireland put themselves in a position to do so after 50 minutes. In terms of clear thinking under pressure, they coped poorly with the English aggression at ruck time and in defence, but never folded. The Monday morning review session might last until Tuesday, but you sense Ireland will learn from this defeat.

And don’t forget – Ireland are still top of the table in the race to win the actual Championship – something we don’t do very often. Unlike in 2009, when the Grand Slam was everything after years of coming close, the Championship without a Grand Slam will be an excellent achievement. With a home game against the wooden spoon staring-Italians to come, Ireland’s points difference advantage should be unassailable by the time they head to Paris in three weeks, meaning a win will open the Schmidt era as champions. We’d have taken that in January, and still will – this is the most hapless French team in memory, and the apparent bull-headed desire to stick by PSA until RWC15 also bids well for our chances in Blighty that year. If there ever was a year to win in Paris, this is it. Optimism-bashing alert – Irish rugby players tend to stand in awe of the mighty French with their chiselled jaws and excellent hair in Paris, and end up getting thumped – we need this mental hangup to disappear.

The last weekend will probably begin with both Ireland and France staring at silverware, as will the victor in next week’s BishBashBoshBowl between England and Wales. Make no mistake, England will feel they were in a real game on Saturday, and will be delighted with what looks like a big step in their development – and the irony of Ireland winning in Paris will be that we can win the Championship by doing something that Lancaster’s men couldn’t.

by whiffofcordite on February 24, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in England, Ireland, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 24, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/02/24/still-in-the-hunt/

Enter Axel

We joked back in May 2012 that “Penney is … a sacrificial lamb who will get to soak up all the ire of the fans by continuing Ludd’s work of the last 18 months and retiring the Liginds one by one and then buggering off to let Axel take over once the newbies have been transitioned in”.

Well, looks like we were right. While Penney was offered only a one year contract (technically, an optional extension), Axel is getting two, with an option of one more. Not that there is anything wrong with that in and of itself. Rugby is a business and its incumbent upon the chief executive(s) of any business to put in place the management/leadership structure that leads to the most success. If the Munster hierarchy have decided that Axel is better placed than Penney to deliver what Munster ultimately need (silverware) then they have their man in place.  Now he just has to go and do it.

Penney was brought in largely because of his work in Canterbury at underage and development level, and was charged with bringing the likes of Tommy O’Donnell, Mike Sherry and Peter O’Mahony up to Heineken Cup level and restore the team’s playing identity.  Much of that has been done, and he leaves Munster in a much better place than when he took over.  Axel Foley takes over a team with a winning mentality and a core of good players who will be around for years to come.  The core of his pack are of the right age profile, and where there are a couple of old lags in wind-down, succession looks to be being managed.  Paul O’Connell will be around until 2016 and BJ Botha will still be here next season and when he does retire, Stephen Archer should be ready to take over (presuming his development over the last 12 months continues).  Dave Foley has stepped up the rungs to ease O’Callaghan further out of the picture and Robin Copeland should smoothly take over from the evergreen James Coughlan, who continues to be productive.

The half-back situation is also positive, with Hanrahan on track to take over from Ian Keatley, and Penney has been wise not to rush this process.  He’ll be ready when he’s ready, and he’s having a fine campaign in the Pro12 in the meantime.

His main issue- as is the case for seemingly every Munster coach since the year dot – will be recruiting and developing capable centres to provide a threat and most importantly, bring the lethal strike runners Simon Zebo and Keith Earls onto the ball as much as possible.  Casey Laulala is heading for the exit and it looks increasingly like James Downey will be joining him.  Foley will need to recruit, and recruit well.

The real fascination will lie in what direction Foley will take the team.  Will he tear up the current script and start anew?  Or is he a ‘continuity’ man As tempting as it is to see the move as a coup d’etat on Foley’s part, it’s unlikely to be the case.  The other temptation is to buy the stereotype of Foley as the ultimate old-school Munster forward who will bring their game back to the dark ages.  “We’ve had 10 man rugby, now you’re playing 9-man rugby – when will this end?”  “When we find a number eight that can kick.”  But that looks over-simplified; Foley was a smart rugby player who got by on his ability to read of the game, and presumably brings those qualities to the table as a coach.

However, it does seem unlikely that he’s a disciple of Penneyball in all its wonderful purity.  He poured cold water on Ger Gilroy’s attempts to get him to say Munster’s success wasn’t always forward oriented on Newstalk last night. But while Munster never looked totally comfortable with Penney’s gameplan, it was hard to see exactly how else they could succeed.  Their pack isn’t really capable of grinding others into the dirt, but is big on mobility and athleticism.  The centres rather than the forwards were the main obstacles to it succeeding.  It’s probably the end to the idea of Donncha O’Callaghan hanging out on the wing looking for the ball, but hopefully some of the spirit of dynamic forward play will be retained.

He should also benefit from much goodwill from the public and media.  As a very fondly remembered player (the Leinster fans’ forum includes Axel Foley in every poll as a reference to Munster fans voting for him in every ‘greatest ever’ list), and the only Irish head coach at provincial level, the Munster faithful will be fully behind him, and he should have no trouble with a meeja who have been campaigning for him to get this gig since before Rob Penney took over.  This is one coach everyone wants to see succeed.  But as every coach knows, it’s a different pressure being the top man than one of the coaching team.

Let’s hope one of the brightest young Irish coaches around can build on Penney’s groundwork – and by Gawd it’s nice to see an Irishman coaching one of the provinces.

by whiffofcordite on February 20, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Axel Foley, HEC, Munster

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 20, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/02/20/enter-axel/

Brutally Honest Feedback

Joe Schmidt silently leads the first team off the bus. The first team stop, take a step and applaud the substitutes off the bus. The substitutes stand in line and applaud the coaches off the bus. The coaches take their place in line and applaud the driver off.

This is the New Ireland.

Entering the hotel, the players are assigned a ‘room buddy’ in addition to the room-mate. They walk their room buddy up to their room, hug them (back thumps optional, but mandatory for Munster players – both hugger and huggee), tweet them something nice, then have a cry together.

Down in the conference room, the players have to text five selected team-mates and tell them why they should play ahead of anyone else, and how they will stop The Awesome Power of Luther Burrell. The hubbub dies down, players avert their eyes, and the Milky Bar Kid takes the stage. The Brutally Honest Review Session ™ is about to start.

Joe: “Peter, great gusto with the anthem singing, but you were nearly a full octave out of tune. Plus you’ve made a schoolboy error – we’ll only have Ireland’s Call at the weekend, that’s where the passion should be directed”

Joe: “Paddy, you let Tommy hug you after your try – not on. What are you going to do when you’ve scored our sixth late on on Saturday but you’ve got The Awesome Power of Mako Vunipola on top of you? How will you shove him away then?”

Joe: “Rob and Dave – you’ve let some parody account become lame – if you are going to encourage the Twitterati, you need to ensure it’s a meme that will last longer than a week. Look at Frankie Sheahan’s account – it’s been laughable for years”

Joe: “Brian, you can’t keep letting biology beat you, it’s getting embarrassing that you are picking up bugs the week before a game. You’ll just have to ask science to stop.”

After sixty minutes of Brutally Honest Feedback ™, the players retire to the games room where they have to spend so long complimenting each other, even Andrew Trimble runs out of things to say.

This is the New Ireland.

by whiffofcordite on February 19, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 19, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/02/19/brutally-honest-feedback/

The White Orcs

Stuart Lancaster’s White Orcs are hosting Ireland on Saturday, and it’s Ireland’s most important match since their last important match, against Wales the previous Sunday.  That impressive win has set Ireland up for a tilt at the triple crown and it would be a great feeling if Ireland could lock down silverware halfway through the championship, especially with Italy coming up in round four.

What can we expect from these maginificent rose-clad yeomen?  Well, while Stuart Lancaster is building towards 2015 and has embedded a sense of humility in the playing pool, his team are built on pretty traditional English rugby values of solid work ethic and a reasonable dollop of ‘boot and bollock’.  They’ve a kicking 10 and a fairly brutish pack of forwards.  The backline looks inexperienced, but the two boys in the centres are great big fellows.

They’ve a problem at tighthead prop.  It’s almost as if the tighthead crisis baton has been passed over.  The awful news about Dan Cole having to take an indefinite hiatus from the game affects them grievously.  The next in line looks to be Bath’s David Wilson but he’s never looked like somebody who can be a real force at this level.  He’s from the Mike Ross school of natural fitness and he’s just back from injury.  Most likely he needs a good few matches to get up to match fitness.  The alternative is Henry Thomas, who plays for Sale but is a rookie at this, or any level.

Before we get too excited, he’s probably had more game experience than Marty Moore, but Marty Moore will be on the bench, not potentially starting.  It’s a problem.  Advantage Ireland in the scrum against England?  Wonders will never cease.  The Awesome Power of Dylan Hartley and The Awesome Power of Joe Marler round out the front row and both are having good series.  There’s depth at hooker where Tom Youngs is a fine player, but The Awesome Power of Mako Vinupola, while potentially explosive in the loose, proved a penalty-expensive replacement against France (and in the Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiions series).

England’s second row is big on physical attributes and athleticism.  The Awesome Power of Courtney Lawes and The Awesome Power of Joe Launchbury lack nothing in terms of physicality.  Do they have the heads for it?  When Paul O’Connell unleashes his unique brand of controlled chaos, with no ruck safe from his explosive clearing out, will these two inexperienced forwards be able for it? The Awesome Power of Courtney Lawes has form when it comes to disappearing when the heat is on, but then some day he won’t.  We’ve all seen the strength of the Irish maul, and presumably these two chaps will be looking to stop that at source.

In the backrow, there’s another key ingredient missing: Thoroughbred Racehorse Tom Croft.  The Awesome Power of Chris Robshaw and The Awesome Power of Tom Wood are fine players, but they’re both similar workers in the six-and-a-half mould.  Ideally you’d like one of them on the openside flank and Tom Croft on the other, to bring a real running threat.  But he’s not here, and Wood and Robshaw won’t lack for workrate.  One or both of them will be tasked with blasting Peter O’Mahony off the breakdown in what will be one of the more fascinating battles of the afternoon.  Can O’Mahony have another game where he comes up with three or four penalty turnovers to kill English momentum? If he does, Ireland should go on to win. Or is the least heralded of the Irish backrow, Chris Henry, the key man – he’s certainly started his belated international career well, and is the most natural in his position of the four flankers. The Awesome Power of Billy Vunipola is at No.8, and he’s been influential so far.  Like the best 8’s he barrows over the gainline, but crucially he can get his hands free and offload to those who can run lines off him.  He’ll need to be policed, but equally, his desire to offload can be a weakness – choke tackle anyone? Where is Stakhanov these days anyway?

Now, the scrum half.  Ah yes, our favourite Test Lion in Waiting.  We feel Danny Care owes us for making us look like eejits by playing his way out of the touring squad from the moment we declared him the starting test Lion.  Well, he’s repaying us and if there was a Lions match tomorrow, himself and Murray would be in the matchday squad.  He’s an instinctive player, something of an Eoin Reddan 2.0.  If he gets quick ball, he can supply the backline with a steady stream of super-fast passes all day long, as well as providing a lethal sniping threat.  There are few better at getting to the ruck at great speed and he has a penchant for quick taps.  Owen Farrell isn’t the most attacking fly-half but Care’s speed of distribution is dragging him kicking and screaming to the gainline.   But put him on the back-foot and and he’s not the best game-manager.  The Irish forwards know what they have to do – get Danny Care.  Ireland’s counter-ruck has been exceptional, and if they can muck up the service to Care that will be a huge battle won.

The backline is really inexperienced, but full of good players.  Consensus is that this is where Ireland can do some damage, but it won’t be as easy as it looks.  The midfield is a case of brains against brawn.  Ireland’s two 95-year old centres have seen everything (unless Bamm-Bamm plays, in which case he has hit everything), while Thirty-Six and The Awesome Power of Luther Burrell are big bruising athletes.  Twelvetrees is supposedly a classy footballer who can play 10 as well, but we haven’t seen too much of it this campaign, and against Munster he was the fulcrum for a lot of ordinary back play. Little known fact about the Awesome Power of Luther Burrell: he’s never been dropped by the Liiiiiiiiiiiiiions.

The back three we like.  Johnny May has gas and if he has his limitations, well, a winger with speed will always cause problems.  Jack Nowell looked like a nervous nelly on his debut in Paris and endured a bit of a nightmare, but he was more like his usual self against Scotland.  One try in the Boshiership this season is a pretty mediocre return, even for the Most Adventurous Team in England™, but he has a bit of football about him.  And the man at the back is the fantastic Mike Brown.  Looking at him in full flight and he never looks quite as classy as Ben Foden or Alex Goode, and yet he scores tries, counter-attacks, catches everything, beats defenders and breaks the line so at the end of the day you can’t argue with his selection.  He and Rob Kearney will have a right old ding-dong.

Ireland will line out more or less the same again.  We expect Donnacha Ryan to replace Tuohy on the bench and the rest to be as you were.  It appears that one of Bowe or Fitzgerald would have had a great chance of playing if they featured at the weekend, but they didn’t, so they won’t.  It’s a topic that’s being done to death, but we’d have made room for Simon Zebo, but it’s pretty clear by now that the Cork flyer is not in favour and will probably have to wait until the summer tour to press his case at test level.  Consensus is that Ireland will look to put it through the backline a bit more than they have done, as England will have a more potent maul defence than Wales or Scotland could muster.  It might prove to be wide of the mark, and with the options available out wide, Ireland may stick to the gameplan which has worked well so far. Plus we don’t think the English pack has anything like the granite heart that some of their predecessors had – the likes of Hartley, Lawes and Robshaw have been key forwards in teams humiliated by their Irish counterparts at HEC level in the recent past.  Dare we suggest for a third time that the weather might be dreadful??

by whiffofcordite on February 18, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in England, Ireland, Lions2013, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 18, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/02/18/the-white-orcs/

We need to talk about POM

The WoC equivalent of Godwin’s Law involves a certain divisive backrow forward from Cork – whatever we post on, it’s virtually inevitable that the comments box will descend into a debate about Peter O’Mahony. While his defenders saw him as a skillful and athletic lineout forward, his detractors saw an argument-fond workshy show pony. We considered him an excellent lineout merchant, a good open field runner with skilful hands who clearly offers leadership possiblities, but one whose tackling is poor and desire for snarling too high – if he met his potential he could be be Ireland’s Tom Croft or Imanol Harinordoquoy, and if not, our Jonathan Thomas.

To  further confuse the already-muddied water, his media street team (who were numerous) constantly cited his workrate, bravery and inability to take a backward step. Whatever you think about him, none of those are his strengths. His simply is not David Wallace, no matter what Conor George wanted, and the terms of the debate were just far too fluid to have a sensible conversation about it. And it still persists – Cummiskey in the Irish Times seemed to think he won man of the match in the Wales game for getting into two fights, which, to our eyes, simply didn’t happen.

We talked about his ‘Good Face’ in the past, but it’s now arguable that the ridiculous media narrative around him hs now gone full circle to the point where it almost undersells his ability.  Munster pishun, fighting, bravery?  It’ll get you so far, but what about the jackalling technique and brilliant handling ability?  Those things require, y’know, talent, right?  Credit to the Second Captains for cutting through the BS and jokingly talking about ‘Brand O’Mahony’ and how his ‘entourage’ would be in his ear, telling him to shout out the anthems tunelessly and loudly and to celebrate turnovers as if they were a try to enhance it.

The first two rounds of the Six Nations have marked the true international arrival of Peter O’Mahony, in his 20th and 21st caps. His first couple of seasons on the international scene corresponded with Ireland’s worst run since the 1990s, with the deepening crisis at the tail end of Deccie’s time in charge impacting all areas of the team. His first three starts were in three different positions, and the backrow unit rarely functioned well in the fag-end of the Deccie era. The team was used to the beef and skill of Fez and Wally, and O’Mahony was a completely different player – he wasn’t integrated at all well into the XV and not only did he rarely shine, but Jamie Heaslip’s performances went down a level as roles shifted.

That’s not to say he didn’t have his moments, and there was the odd good day amid the gloom, notably the draw at home to France (of which we performed an in depth analysis and found the backrow all showed up well, each man got through a pile of work, and O’Mahony did best – apart from Steve Walsh *swoon*).  It’s worth remembering that in that game Peter O’Mahony’s standout contributions were a couple of brilliant ruck turnovers as opposed to big runs in wide channels.  Sound familiar?  But it’s hard for anyone, let alone a rookie backrow only learning the international game, to look consistently good when the team is going nowhere and doesn’t look like it knows what it’s doing.

With the arrival of the Milky Bar Kid, O’Mahony has now a defined place in the team – positioned much closer to rucks, his breakdown work has formed the platform of Ireland’s success. He carries much less, and still isn’t a great tackler in either frequency or impact (he has notoriously never reached double figures in a test, but we don’t think this is as important as it is sometimes made out to be – in this Championship, he has kept pace with Henry and Heaslip’s numbers, which will do us). He has been simply brilliant, probably our best player, and has stepped into a lieutenant role in the team.  As captain for Munster this year, he has improved on the field in both play and conduct and it seems to bring out the best in him.

Equally noticable was his discipline – the shirt-grabbing rabble-rouser has been replaced by a focused and cold-eyed professional. Wales continually tried to rile him on Saturday but he never wavered once, concentrating instead on winning the game. He seemed .. coached .. odd as it might sound. The only moment when the old O’Mahony resurfaced was when he almost talked himself into a sin-binning when Barnes had asumed his punctilious hat.  [O’Connell was off the pitch at this point, with Heaslip assuming captaincy duties, and he probably should have smelt the danger and made himself present at the little chat and gagged O’Mahony.]  Twelve months ago, we still thought his place in the team was in question, but right now he should be forming the backbone of our team through to RWC19. Heck, even Leinsterlion has conceded that he’s at least average.  The backrow unit has improved beyond all recognition, yet its best player, possibly best two players, are out injured.

The game in Twickenham represents another great opportunity for O’Mahony to do his feet-planted-in-the-ground-bent-over-the-ball thing, as England lack a dedicated fetcher and rely on two six-and-a-halves in Robshaw and Wood to divvy up breakdown duties.  He’ll need to watch out for Dan Cole, though, who is a hell of a clearer-outer.  The rangy No.6 being dragged up from the ruck while the referee’s arm lifts to the sky in Ireland’s direction is fast becoming our favourite sight of the Six Nations.

And did you know this little discussed fact: he once played on the wing in an AIL final.  Fancy that!

by whiffofcordite on February 13, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Ireland, Peter O'Mahony, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 13, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/02/13/we-need-to-talk-about-pom/

In Schmidt We Trust

Doubtless many of our readers saw the notes taken by an anonymous scribe from a recent Joe Schmidt seminar which found themselves ‘going viral’, as it were, yesterday afternoon.  If you didn’t, you can see them here.

It made for fascinating reading, an insight into the workings of one of the great coaches in modern sport.  Anyone who witnessed Joe Schmidt’s talk to Leinster fans in the Laighin Bar will know he’s a fascinating, charismatic and humourous guy who can easily command the attention of a room of punters.  Whatever or wherever this seminar was, we wish we were there.

It’s abundantly clear from reading that Schmidt is a man whose eye for detail is unmatched, and his preparation meticulous.  Every error in training is pulled up, and any that are missed are pulled up later from video analysis.  Little wonder Brian O’Driscoll spoke of every single day being a learning experience with him as coach.

A few things struck us as especially interesting.  One was the unwillingness to buy into ‘received wisdom’ or media-spun catch-all narratives, such as the all-conquering mental strength of the Indomitable All Blacks.  His dissection of the two contrasting World Cup games against France was fantastic.  Not for a second was he accepting that the Kiwis were in any way more composed or prepared for trench warfare in 2011 than in 2007; they got away with winning because the referee let them cheat the whole game.  Anyone who watched that game will remember that they were allowed to not roll out of the tackle at almost every single ruck.

There was some nice insight into how he kept squad harmony at Leinster, with Eoin Reddan running the fines/punishments committee and a policy of every player shaking hands when they first meet each day, a tradition he brought over from Clermont (I thought the French kissed each other, but we’ll let it slide) and how Jamie Heaslip – who comes across as a show pony influential figure – makes a point of shaking the hand of every single academy player.

What always struck us about Joe Schmidt is that he has a great sense of which buttons to press based on the prevailing mood.  He describes how, no matter what has gone on earlier in the week, once it gets to Thursday everything he says to the players is positive.  One Schmidt post-match interview in particular game always stood out in our minds.  It was a match against Glasgow in Scotstoun in the Heineken Cup.  Leinster played dreadfully, but an Isaac Boss touchdown against the base of a post and some good fortune defending the lead late in the match was enough to secure a narrow win.  In the weeks before the game, a number of players had given interviews relaying just how tough Schmidt’s Monday morning video sessions were, and how players are accountable for every single action.  But rather than berate this genuinely pretty awful performance, all he would say to the press was how proud he was of the group to have dug in to secure a really hard-fought win.  It just seemed exactly the right note to strike; terrific management.  Long may he remain in this country.

Will he though? Surely the BNZ hierarchy are watching, but equally as surely, success (domestic and international) in the Northern Hemisphere simply isn’t seen as adequate preparation for the BNZ job. While it’s tempting to see him as the obvious successor to Hansen after 2015, he might have to wait until further down the line.  Anyone who read Ruchie’s book will get a keen sense of how insular (and we don’t mean that in a negative sense) rugger in BNZ is. If Schmidt wants to coach BNZ, as he must, he will have to do some time back home first.  If he has his sights set on the 2019-23 RWC cycle, he will want to be heading home for the 2018 SH season, at the very latest, and probably earlier. That gives us about two years to enjoy the ride – anyone fancy minding the William Webb Ellis from 2015 for a couple of years?

by whiffofcordite on February 12, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Joe Schmidt, Uncategorized

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 12, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/02/12/in-schmidt-we-trust/

Best Served Cold

We’re certain we weren’t the only ones only dying for Ireland to hand Wales their hoops on Saturday – the teams have developed a rivalry which is, er, let’s say keen. It bugs the Irish players more than a little that, since both nations suffered such disastrous RWC07’s, Wales have won 3 Championships (with 2 Grand Slams) and made it to a RWC semi-final while we have bagged only the one Grand Slam and a quarter final. In the games between the sides, there has typically been little in it, with the exception of the RWC11 knock-out. The Ireland players wouldn’t consider themselves inferior to the Welsh in any way, and it’s a stain on their record that the Red Army Motorized Tank Division are more garlanded at this level.

Of course, that record includes Ireland’s catastrophic ’08 and ’13 seasons – fag ends of dead coaching reigns, and seasons where Wales delivered under Gatty. With Ireland now benefitting from a coaching bounce, it felt like the time to re-assert our surperiority. But how? Throw it around Baa-Baa’s style and run rings around their gargantuan backs – we will score one more than you? Sounds difficult. Shut down Plan A, mash them out of touch, maul them into submission and reduce them to a squabbling rabble by the end? Much better – the psychology of such a victory is double-edged – boost confidence and ruthlessness in the camp, and destroy the confidence of your rival. It’s classic Jose Mourinho – attack your opponent’s strength and break them down.  We said Ireland would win if it was a set-piece game, and we made it that.  There were 29 lineouts in all.

This was Ireland’s revenge, served ice cold. The Welsh camp was personified by the puce-faced loss of control of Mike Philips, the impotence of Sam the Eagle and Dirty Liam Williams forearm smash on Wee PJ. For the first time in years, Ireland have put together back-to-back performances – and it’s been based on ruthless execution and accuracy, dead-eyed concentration to the fore. There was real desire to do Wales for sure, but it wasn’t an emotional-high type performance like we are used to. It was like the Scottish one, but up a notch, and it bodes really well for the rest of the tournament.

Shane Horgan has mentioned it several times on the air; Joe Schmidt is what they call a ‘solutions provider’.  His method is to analyse the opposition in depth and provide his players with the means to beating them.  While he is famed for producing the sort of rugby with which Leinster beat Northampton in the 2011 Heineken Cup final, he is a pragmatist at heart, and when it comes to selection he picks not those he deems to be his best players, but those who can best execute the plan.

Peter O’Mahony’s deployment is a classic example of maximising use of resources.  O’Mahony’s weak point is his tackling, which is neither frequent nor powerful, but by deploying him at the ruck, Schmidt has both nullified his weakness and amplified his strength.  The sight of the No.6 bent over the ball winning yet another turnover penalty has become the iconic image of the series so far.  And the positive body language between he and Jamie Heaslip – two chaps who haven’t exactly dovetailed well in their careers to date – when he won a penalty to end Wales’ only sustained pressure in the first hour was noticeable.

Equally positive has been the performance of the wings.  Eyebrows were raised – and not just in Munster – when Simon Zebo was left out of the squad.  Dave Kearney and Andrew Trimble are more mundane talents, but they have rewarded their coach amply.  Both are playing superbly, to the manor born.  Leinster fans have gotten used to unexpected selection calls from Schmidt bearing fruit over the 80 minutes on the pitch; now the rest of the country will start to get the same feeling.

Another tick-mark in Schmidt’s copy book was the decision to replace O’Connell.  The iron-willed collossus was patently short of match-fitness, but gave his all for fifty-five minutes, as only he can.  Previous coaching tickets would have tried to bleed more out of him, but showing trust in the reserves is another great property of Schmidt.  He showed it in Clermont when he put a youthful Eoin O’Malley and Fergus McFadden in the team, and still went out to attack Les Jaunards and look to win the game.  And he showed it here, by taking O’Connell off early, and showing his trust in Dan Tuohy to step up to the mark.  Tuohy’s arm-break is unfortunate, so a return to action for Mike McCarthy and Donnacha Ryan could be timely.

From here, it’s over to Twickers, with zero tries and just nine points conceded. England have the biggest pack in the competition, but the like of Hartley, Cole, Lawes and Robshaw (the spine of the English pack) have found themselves humiliated by Irish opponents on their own turf in the last 12 months. Playing with this kind of focus and power, Ireland are not going to be frightened by the red rose, but this is the hardest game of the series to date. And there is silverware at stake – if Ireland win, it’s a first Triple Crown in five years, after four in six before that (we shudder at how the Triple Crown was dismissed as a virtual irrelevance ahead of the Scotland game in 2010 – hubris like that won’t happen again soon).

Just because it worked against Wales, doesn’t mean it’ll work against England, and Schmidt will make the necessary adjustments and changes to the approach; providing the players with the next solution, the one to beat England.  A powerful lineout maul and kicking game will not be enough this time, because England can match us in those areas.  This might be the game to try and put a little bit more through the backs.  Don’t be entirely surprised to see some ruthlessness from Schmidt.  Perhaps one of Bowe, Fitzgerald or Zebo will come into the team to provide a little more cutting edge.

This year has that feeling to it, you know.  The game against England is going to be an absolute ding-dong.  We cannot wait.

PS. We loved Gatland’s comment when asked about O’Mahony: ‘You can never underestimate the passion a Munster man will bring to a match’.  It seems that POM’s public image has even filtered through to the Welsh.  It wasn’t his flawless technique over the ball and exceptional skills in the lineout that dominated the game; it was his passion.

by whiffofcordite on February 10, 2014  •  Permalink
Posted in Ireland, Joe Schmidt, Six Nations

Posted by whiffofcordite on February 10, 2014

https://whiffofcordite.com/2014/02/10/best-served-cold/

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