Lead Balloon

So that was good, wasn’t it? Ireland’s bright new dawn turned out to be, er, dreadful. Absolutely dreadful. The performance was up there with the worst of the dross we have seen over the past few years, and the four tries to nil margin told the full story. It’s hard to know where to begin with the post-mortem, but we’ll try and finish on a high note.

The forwards and the backs never showed up, a discernable gameplan to actually win the game was undetectable and the error count was astronomical. The pack provided no platform – none – the lineout was ropey, and the scrum got milked for penalties by Australia. Australia! Mike Ross’ woes in the scrum brought to mind something David Baddiel said about Matt le Tissier in the mid-90s “If he can weave so much magic with Francis Benali, imagine what he could do with Paul Gascoigne [for England]”. If Ross could get turned over so badly by James Slipper, imagine what’s going to happen when Tony Woodcock comes to town.

With no platform, the backs were always likely to struggle, but the absence of anything resembling a coherent attacking pattern was a major disappointment. Lateral shunting, aimless kicking (to Israel Folau!) – it had bad and very bad. Luke Marshall provided some attacking zest, but got done by the excellent Quade Cooper for the third Wobbly try (note: better players have been done by Cooper, and we should be persisting with young talent like Bamm-Bamm). Tommy Bowe was as bad as we have seen for Ireland – one-paced, poor lines (going inside when Bob needed him to go out in the first half), uncertain decision-making (his half-hearted low clearing kick to Cooper in the first half was lapped up by the clinical Wallabies to create a 4-on-2 and put in the Honey Badger) and unsure looking.

BOD has rarely been as bad and Johnny Sexton was poor even before going off for injury, looking below 100% fit, cranky even by his usual standards and distracted. Ian Madigan had a tough day at the office in the second half, and when he failed to make 10m from a kickoff it felt like every possible error had been made by Ireland. The gap in basic skill levels right across the field was alarming – sometimes it’s hard to escape the conclusion that our players … aren’t that good.

So where do Ireland go from here? The pack looked too lightweight – getting shunted around by a pack who were the laughing stock of world rugby three months ago is very concerning – imagine if South Africa or England were up next. But they seem simply too nice. Where is Ireland’s Bakkies Botha, Brad Thorn or Lionel Nallet – where is the enforcer? Or the player to simply create chaos, a Lewis Moody, Quinny or Jerry Flannery type.  Ireland missed Fez, clearly, but thinking about more realistic option in the near future, the aggression that Donnacha Ryan might bring something we didn’t show. The second row is light, and can’t carry very well. So when the lineout isn’t functioning, they are essentially redundant. The backrow got blown out of it – Michael Hooper’s domination of the breakdown and the Wallaby targeting of O’Brien – sounds familiar? – left Ireland with nothing to fall back on. Irishi fans burn with hatred for the likes of Botha, Dylan Hartley, Jamie Cudmore, Courtney Lawes, Rodrigo Roncero et al – anyone think any opposition fans despise any of our forwards? Doubt it. We aren’t advocating cheap shots and eye-gouging or anything, but where is our nasty streak?

And as for the scrum, there is a good case for Ross to be jettisoned – he looks tired and is struggling to get with the new scrum calls. At Leinster, Marty Moore has out-performed him, and a change simply has to be considered – Deccie Fitz has done ok against BNZ in the past, and if he is fit, he could come into play. The way we have seen our props perform this season, there is more risk attached to picking Ross than benching him.

Is there any good news? Not much unfortunately – we said before the series that the performances would count for more than results, given the schedule. And after Saturday, performances aren’t in positive territory – far from it. The video review on Monday might last until Wednesday there is that much to pore over. Looking to this weekend, we expect a better performance against BNZ, where another 17 point defeat will constitute something of a moral victory. But we can’t continue to veer from the sublime to the ridiculous – Joe Schmidt needs to start putting his stamp on this team and give it some direction.  Such things were never going to happen overnight, but nor is there any excuse for simply being so flat, and giving up such soft tries.

Allowing for the fact that a beaten-up pack won’t help with putting together attacking direction (ask the Scarlets), better imagination with ball in hand is needed. Barnesy wrote some word in the Jones Gazette yesterday which helped us think about what Ireland need to do:

“How do you get from the muddle of England’s back play to the consummate handling and running like of [BNZ]? You practise, and you .. trust the talent and free it to find ways to create space. It is the application to the attacking game that enables the execution and clinical finishing that seems such a formality to New Zeland. Running the right lines is not the mystery it seems if players have the time to practice what is in front of their eyes.”

Get practising boys – the scale of the task, if it wasn’t apparent before Saturday, is apparent now.

PS. How good was the Honey Badger?  And he stayed around on the pitch for ages after the game talking to his legions of admirers.  Badger got some meat!

Say Hello to 2015

England’s game against Australia will make for intriguing viewing this weekend, not least because of the age profile of the side England have selected.  The team has an average age of sub-25 and there’s no one in the entire matchday panel older than 28.  The average number of caps is 14.  Neutrals should probably hope for an Australia win, because if this England team wins the hype will be unbearable.  World Cup Glory beckons!  Bring on the Kiwis!  SWING LOW!

Having said that, if this England team does beat an admittedly patchy Australia side, they can afford a little cautious optimism.  This is a side built with 2015 in mind.  For anyone who hasn’t seen it, it looks like this:

M Brown (Harlequins); C Ashton (Saracens), J Tomkins (Saracens), B Twelvetrees (Gloucester), M Yarde (London Irish); O Farrell (Saracens), L Dickson (Northampton), M Vunipola (Saracens), T Youngs (Leicester), D Cole (Leicester), J Launchbury (Wasps), C Lawes (Northampton), T Wood (Northampton), C Robshaw (Harlequins, capt), B Vunipola (Saracens).

Excitement abounds around the two Vunipolas.  As George Hamilton might say, the Vunipola brothers are not related.  Billy is a livewire carrier, possibly the No.8 England have been looking for since Nick Easter, er, got ignored for some reason.  And in the scrummaging merry-go-round it appears that Mako has benefitted from the new laws.  A liability at set piece in the Lions tour, if indeed he can show this to no longer be the case in the New Scrummaging World, then he can have a long test career.  Or up until the scrum engagement changes again, at least.

They’ll miss the unflappable Geoff Parling at lineout time for sure, but the second row combination of Launchbury and Lawes is bound to generate excitement.  There will be no quicker, more athletic second row in the November series, but are they men of substance?  Lawes is a product of massive overhype, but has spoken of maturing and no longer looking to make rugbydump hits, but play for the team. The jury’s still out.

On the flanks, we’d still prefer to see a little more specialisation.  Robshaw and Wood are grafters.  Both will make some yards, slow down some ball, make some tackles.  Wood will take a few lineouts.  Fine men and good players they undoubtedly are, but neither is outstanding at any one facet of the game.  He may have his detractors, but Tom Croft will be missed.  He gives England an explosive running threat out wide and coupling his absence with that of Manu Tuilagi, there’s a massive line-breaking threat removed from the side.

In the back division, England have been scratching around for years for a top class 12 (since Greenwood retired, arguably) – Stontayne Hapless never really ticked the boxes.  Billy Twelvetrees is big and strong, but also a smart footballer and a good offloader.  He could be that man.  Joel Tomkins plays outside him, and Marland Yarde is the latest speedster off the rank to be given a go on the wing.  A new one seems to explode on the scene every year before their form goes into a tailspin and disappear from view.  Will he be the new Tom Varndell/Paul Sackey/Ugo Monye/David Strettle/Topsy Ojo/Christian Wade?

With all the youthful verve on display, the key question might be: are Lee Dickson and Owen Farrell the men to put them into space?  Dickson is keeping Fotuali’i on the bench at Northampton, which counts for a huge amount, but we have never been especially impressed by him.  He tends to do a lot of flapping around the base, and can be seen waving his arms for eons before passing the ball.  Better than Ben Youngs?  Really?  Owen Farrell is a hardy competitor, but the feeling remains that until Freddie Burns makes an unarguable case for selection, England still lack a real playmaker for the role.

Anyway, the future starts here.  Possibly.  Maybe.  England have prematurely celebrated any number of false dawns since 2003.  Remember when they won in Paris with a very youthful Toby Flood and – brace yourself – Shane Geraghty cutting the French to ribbons?  The press corps got very excited. It didn’t last.

The Champions Cup for Winningest Winners

As one canny tweeter pointed out yesterday, with each public utternace, the LNR, the PRL, the unions and the ERC become more and more entrenched in their position. It’s increasingly hard to see how a resolution will be achieved.  In what has become a particularly ugly game of high-stakes poker, the current strategy on all sides is to continually over-raise one another ad infinitum.

Yesterday we had Bath chairman Bruce Craig, a man with the greater good of the game no doubt at the forefront of his mind, effectively blackmail the Celtalian unions.  If you do not join our ‘fabulous new European competition’, said the man who paid Beaver to eat out, you will face ‘financial oblivion’.  The highlight of his little outburst was his assertion that the Cup for Winningest Winners was going to ‘save European rugby’.   Those who didn’t know exactly what European rugby needed saving from now had their answer: these guys.

Then Jacky Lorenzetti, the Racing Metro chairman, laid out the grand scope of the new competition.  It will apparently include South African, Australian and New Zealand franchises, a veritable World Club Cup.  How such a thing could possibly work has not been revealed.  The fact that England and France are on literally the opposite corner of the globe to New Zealand and Australia appears to have gone unheeded.  Will Bath be trekking the 30-plus hours required to get to Canterbury to play a Cham-pi-on-es Cup match against the Crusaders? And get toasted by 60 points based on current squads?  It looks like a ludicrous over-bet.  Perhaps the next step for those on the other side of the table is to the call them on it.

The King is dead, long live … Ian Keatley?

The new season approacheth.  The season tickets have arrived.  Anticipation builds.  We’re back in the hotseat.  Rather than write dullsville ‘season previews’ for each Irish province, we’re going to focus on a couple of themes that will be woth following over the season.  First up, the impossible art of replacing the irreplaceable.

With the move of Ronan O’Gara from the playing sphere into the coaching sphere, it isn’t just Rodrigo Roncero who is devastated by the news. The last time Munster started a season with someone other than the apple-cheeked charmer at outhalf, Munster weren’t even … Munster, as we now know them. It was still the era of bugger-all fans, Shannon making a serious pitch to play in their stead in the HEC and an unknown shrewd and reticent Cork teacher taking training sessions off his own bat. The soaring ambition, silverware and modern stadium that now characterise Munster rugby were such pipe dreams as to be a laughable conceit.

Whoever steps into O’Gara’s boots in the long term has to deal with the expectation and standards that his generation brought to the table – keeping the score to less than 50 isn’t where they are at now. O’Gara might have played like a pub player at times for Ireland last year, but he was instrumental in guiding Munster past the Awesome Power of Chris Robshaw and Harlequins and then putting the heart across Mental Strength Gurus Clermont Auvergne in the next round.

For all the impressive performances Ian Keatley put out in the first half of the Pro12, and his apparent greater suitability for Rob Penney’s vision for Munster, he never hesitated in selecting Radge for those massive games.

But now that Radge is sipping Cotes du Rhone with Pippo Contepomi in Mario Ledesma’s Parisian bolthole, will Keatley be able to step up to the plate and be that HEC standard outhalf Munster need? Keatley has shown himself to be a capable fly-half, but worryingly inconsistent.  He can look great one minute and mediocre the next.  Can he put in the sort of performances Munster will need to steer them around the toughest grounds in Europe?  Moreover, patience isn’t going to be given to a guy who has had two years to learn from O’Gara. Plus the age profile of other Irish out-halves combined with career path of Keatley means that this is essentially his final chance to nail a starting shirt in the HEC for an Irish province. No pressure.

The Munster faithful are putting a huge amount of faith and hope in young gun JJ Hanrahan, who has looked a genuine playmaker on the few occasions we’ve seen him.  Problem is, dropping a guy with a handful of appearances (just five starts, all bar one at inside centre, and six reserve appearances) into a key position and asking him to emulate the best you’ve ever had is such a huge ask as to be ridiculous. Again, no pressure. At least when Ulster threw Paddy Jackson in at the deep end, Jackson had come through years of schools and underage rugby playing the position exclusively – and for all that, Jackson’s tenure at fly-half for Ulster has been far from smooth.  It was only when Ulster held Jackson back from last year’s JRWC that Hanrahan played at 10, deputising for the pear-cheeked Belfast crooner.

The trouble with replacing O’Gara is that it has to happen not only on the pitch but in the hearts and minds of the fans.  As great a player and dominant a personality as Jonny Sexton admitted that he struggled with it for a long time.  For Ian Keatley, it will be pressure on a scale he has never experienced.  We also have a sense that among Munster fans, he is on the backfoot a little, and is seen as a bit of a Leinster reject.  The will of the people is for Hanrahan to leapfrog him into the first team.  At least his replacement won’t have to endure ROG-cam every time he fluffs a kick, although we won’t rule out RTE having a special set-up cutting to ROG in his Parisian living room watching on telly.

One other key reason for Munster to get this one right revolves around the future of the man who’ll be dishing out the passes to either of these men – the Lions best scrum half and Simon Zebo’s good friend, Conor Murray. The good news for whoever ends up playing at 10 is that they will be paired with an authoritative and skilful scrum-half.  The bad news (for the IRFU) is that they have to pay him his worth and satisfy his ambitions.  With Murray’s performaces last season and his ongoing (and mystifying) contractual wranglings, you can bet your bottom dollar there will be some French clubs dangling huge carrots under his nose in the coming months (remember Sexton’s conversations with the union and RM started to get serious in November last year) – if outhalf becomes a problem position for Munster and begins to look like a multi-year project, will Murray consider strolling off to, say, Perpignan for a few years in the sun and come back when it’s sorted? Maybe, maybe not.

These are interesting times at fly-half for all of the ‘big three’, with Ian Madigan about to be thrust into the role of first choice 10 at Leinster, while up North, Paddy Jackson is continuing to try and stamp his authority on a team where the scrum half acts as chief playmaker.  With O’Gara out of the picture, the role as deputy to Sexton at international level is up for grabs.  Of the chasing pack, Madigan is currently well in front, having made the Lions reserve list and been selected on the summer tour of North America, but things can change quickly.

Munster might appear to have a bye to the HEC quarter-finals, but it’s easy to forget how often O’Gara took the points that his pack were offering up – if Keatley or Hanrahan don’t impress early on, a double header with a rejuvenated USAP suddenly will begin looking pretty tough and must-win. Just the way O’Gara would like it – what about Keatley or Hanrahan?

That’s All Folks! (until later)

It’s been a long and exhausting season, and we’re looking forward to a break. While the drama has been constant, the rugby has been largely lacking – Ireland’s most memorable display was half their opening Six Nations game against Wales, as well as a romp against a disinterested Argentina, the best game at provincial level was Munster’s HEC semi-final against Clermont, and the Lions ultimately prevailed in a low-quality series.

At national level, it’s the end of an era – Declan Kidney started by delivering a Grand Slam (only the second ever), but followed that by progressive degeneration which ended in the shambolic capitulation in Rome. Deccie’s struggles to assimilate newer players and a more modern gameplan as the heroes of 09 departed one by one ultimately brought him down. Next year will be the start of the Messiah Joe Schmidt’s reign – the cuddly Kiwi is unlikely to make any massive changes in personnel, but a coherent gameplan for the first time in years will be a huge relief.  Kidney’s management of the team was a constant source of articles and opinion, and we look forward to critiquing the new man in the job and seeing if he can improve matters – Ireland are at their lowest ebb since the Five Nations became Six so here’s hoping.

For the provinces, the story of the year has been Rob Penney and Munster. After years of limping out of Europe with their tail between their legs, Munster harked back to their great tradition with memorable wins against Sarries and Quins then a heroic defeat against a petrified Clermont team.  Penney deserves huge credit for his work, but replacing Rog and the perennial Keet Earls question will be keeping him awake, and the jury’s still out on this one.  Were the knockout performances emotionally driven unsustainable peaks or the start of Penney’s vision for Munster crystallising?  We shall see.

Given the lamentable choking that Clermont displayed at the end of the HEC, Leinster will regret the insipid performance in the Aviva in December which killed their three-in-a-row hopes. The Amlin and (especially) the Pro12 will be of consolation, but the departure of their best player and question marks over the front five mean some consolidation is likely. The young guns at Ulster progressed at home, but inconsistency in Europe cost them a home quarter-final. They’ll need to make better use of their forward power next year – it’s no use having all these great backs outside if you box-kick everything.

In the West, it’s the Pat Lam story from next year, but Eric Elwood has left the province much stronger than he got them – mid-table battlers in the Pro12 and HEC experience gives a really solid platform for growth. Now, what about that dog track?

The season finished with the uber-full on Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiions tour – the team came home immortal victorious, largely thanks to Alex Corbisiero and Dingo Deans’ selection policy. No-one enjoyed the rugby too much (unless you were from Wales) but a first series victory in 16 years shouldn’t be sniffed at. Besides, if they couldn’t beat that shower, who were they going to beat?

Finally, thanks to all who came on here to read the blog, and especially to those who joined the debate below the line in the comment box and on Twitter.  The blog would be nothing without its readers, and this year the comment box really exploded, which is really great.  More so than ever, the comments add so much to the pieces we write, and made for some really great reading this year.  Even occasionally from Leisterlion.  Ah, we love you really Leinsterlion.  Never change.  Never.

We’ll return in a few weeks, tanned and refreshed with some look-forward pieces, and we’ll hopefully be less bitter.

Palla & Egg

Ostrich Deans

True story #1: two Wallabies players missed the team bus to training before the third Test and followed in a taxi. When asked to apologise to their teammates, one said “I’m sorry I didn’t order room service”. The coach did nothing, much to the dismay of the rest of the squad. We’ll reveal who the two players were at the end.

True story #2: it’s been reported that the ARU had decided to dispense with Dingo’s services before the Lions series even started – Deans was officially unaware of this, but its hard not to see him connecting the dots, particularly with Ewen McKenzie and Jake White treating him as a dead duck in public

Post the firing of Deans, the Wallaby camp is beginning to wash its dirty laundry in public, and it ain’t pretty. We previously opined that if the Lions couldn’t beat an Australia team begging to be beaten, who would they beat, but now we can ask an even stronger question – how did the Lions come so close to losing the series to a team with a lame duck coach, low morale and self-destructing superstars?

Understandably enough, it was Gatty’s selections that inspired the bigger debate in these parts, particularly because of the you-know-who decision, and the madcap preference for Tom Croft and Dan Lydiate as ball carriers ahead of Sean O’Brien. Whatever you think about the beefy Kiwi’s picks, at least they won the series, no matter the fortune involved. On the other side of the fence, Dingo Deans made some massive calls of his own, and they were largely catastrophic.

When one looks back on the Test series, the obvious reason why Australia didn’t win was their failure to made productive use of good primary possession. In the first two tests, they owned the scrum, lineout and football, yet lost by one point. When the Lions got on top, they won the final test by 25 points. And this all when Australia had the best scrumhalf (and player) on view, while the Lions hummed and hawed and placated an obviously unfit Mike Philips. Only with Conor Murray on did they look even reasonably effective.

While we aren’t buying the standard Sky winger-playing-at-ten line (he has plenty of experience at ten in Super Rugby), putting his eggs in the James O’Connor basket was a series-defining and disastrous decision by Deans. While O’Connor improved as the series went on, and showed occasional flickers of his talent, he never looked able to get his backline moving – any of the exiled Quade Cooper, an out-of-sorts Kurtley Beale or even Christian Leali’ifano would have been a better option. Indeed, having seen how Cooper filleted the Lions even when behind a beaten pack in Suncorp earlier in the tour, it is probable the Sydney test would have been a dead rubber with him in the side.

In the second test, Michael Hooper played a blinder, and became especially prominent with Sam Warburton gone – Deans repaid this performance by dropping him for the heroic George Smith. While the recall of Smith was a great story, dropping Hooper (and Liam Gill) wasn’t very smart, and his explanation to Gill (“You can talk abvout loyalty when you have 100 caps”) wasn’t very conducive to squad harmony. In the event, Smith was quite clearly reeling from a blow to the head early on and trundled around Sydney seemingly unaware of where he was.

To his credit, Ben Mowen is a massive find, one of the players of the series who looks likely to be a key Wallaby leader for the coming years, and Christian Leali’ifano is the kind of dead-eyed goal-kicker Australia have lacked for many years.

In many ways, Deans was on a hiding to nothing having fallen out with his best player and alienated the Wallaby fan base (such as it is) – and we now know he wouldn’t have got a new contract anyway – but not taking the chances offered up by an average Lions outfit over a three test series, having stuck your stall out was pretty unforgivable.

We’re likely to see quite a few changes in the Wallaby side in the run up to RWC15. McKenzie made a point of insisting all players would be forced to make the team bus on time. It’s probable the tiresome twins will see a sabbatical from Wallaby duty for some time until they get their heads in gear. Cooper and Matt Toomua will contest the 10 shirt in their absence and that of Berrick Barnes, who, along with Digby Ioane, is probably heading north. Henry Speight will be Wallaby-eligible at year end, and from him, Jesse Mogg, Israel Folau (presuming  he stays in union) and the Honey Badger, the Wallabies will pick a fresh-looking back three. Which makes Will Genia, Lilo and AAC the only constants in the backline.

In the pack, there is lots of talk Ben Alexander won’t be seen again, with James Slipper and Sekope Kepu contesting for the long-time Wallaby weakness at tighthead prop. Scott Sia and Siliva Siliva are the future at 1 and 2 respectively – expect to see them tour in November, as backup to Stephen Moore and Benn Robinson.

Another problem position is number 8, where Cliffy Palu had an anonymous series – in the absence of Scott Higginbotham, the only other options are moving Ben Mowen back or promoting Jake Schatz. A partner for James Horwill is needed in the second row as well, where Kane Douglas was fairly ineffective.

In the rush to thump chests and talk about 16 years of hurt ended, Northern Hemisphere rugby needs to recognise the Lions struggled for five-sixths of the Test series against a shambolic Wallaby team low on morale, that didn’t like its coach and had no recognisable gameplan – this was the weakest opponent the Lions faced in many many years. The likely improvement from here until RWC15 shouldn’t convince anyone that the Wallaby team they defeated wasn’t one that the New Zealanders or South Africans (or French, possibly) wouldn’t have swatted aside with ease.

The test series was thoroughly enjoyable for the drama and selection banter involved, but lets not kid ourselves about its quality. The more one hears about the Wallaby camp this summer, the less of a historical (immortal!) achievement the series victory looks – but hey, they happen rarely enough, let’s try and savour it. As long as we also try and learn something from it.

Postscript: if you haven’t worked out who the players are, go off and write 200 lines: “Willie John McBride owes me an apology”, then in no less than 10,000 words write a fair and balanced appraisal of Warren Gatland. End it: Love from Stephen.

The Internal Struggle

There was OUTRAGE of the highest order yesterday, after Gatty unceremoniously dumped you-know-who ahead of the you-know-what on Saturday. The OUTRAGE bubbled and boiled at the injustice of dropping that-bloke-called-Brian and more than a few Irish fans declared themselves Wallaby fans ahead of Saturday.

And no doubt they are serious. Personally, we would find it pretty hard to cheer against any representative team containing Johnny Sexton, Sean O’Brien and Tommy Bowe (unless they all signed for Saracens), but it’s a very understandable emotion. We’ve talked before about how many fans feel they don’t really have a stake in the Lions and how it’s tough to really buy into the team, so it’s quite obvious how disappointment can breed resentment.  It’s easy to talk about getting behind the Lions and how there are no nationalities, just 15 Lions (though this is easier said when the team is full of your own national heroes!), but deep down, it doesn’t really work that way for anyone.  At the end of the day, folk have an affinity with the players they adore for their club/province and nation.  There’s no instinctive reason to feel emotionally attached to a mainly Welsh team playing such reductive rugby – unless you’re Welsh, or really enjoy negative rugby.  The great binding force of the Lions crest can only get one so far, particularly when it has become so wearisomely rammed down supporters’ throats by the Sky machine.

While it’s difficult to completely disentangle one’s emotions after the whole BOD affair, it’s not so much the OUTRAGE over the dropping of Ireland’s national icon that is so deflating, but the message it sends out about the identity of this Lions touring squad.  It’s a sad indictment of this Lions coaching team when the most skilful players – Brian O’Driscoll and Justin Tipuric – are passed over for bigger chaps who can bosh harder.  Is this really the best the Lions can do?  I thought this was the pinnacle of the game, or something.

While we’ll be cheering for the Lions on saturday, there is a goodly portion of our being that feel the best result for all concerned is an Australia win.  This Lions squad simply doesn’t deserve to win the series (barring a sudden about-turn in performance and approach entirely out of keeping with the selection and the first two tests).  Sky will tell you that ‘immortality’ beckons for the winners, but does it really?  Immortality, for scraping out two wins (one of which was undeserved) against a misfiring Australia?  In what has been a lamentably poor quality series thus far, the Aussies have been the better side in all facets of the game, have shown occasional invention, been brave (foolhardy?) in selection (three debutants and a rookie outhalf for Brisbane), have at least two bona fide geniuses in their team and, crucially, have played all the rugby on offer (such as it has been).  They are far from a great team, and frequently go backwards in their attempts to attack, but at least they’ve tried to play with the ball.

This Lions team and squad is supposed to be the best the Northern Hemisphere (well, the old public school English-speaking Northern Hemisphere) has to offer – and they haven’t covered their Hemipshere (go Northern Hemisphere!) in glory. They have bished, bashed, shunted, huffed, puffed and boshed (in the Tests) – which should have been expected, to be frank.

This years Six Nations was an utter abomination. It started and ended brilliantly, involving the best and worst of the Welsh, but in between, plumbed the depths – the Wales-France game was simply appalling and England and Ireland got more and more dismal as the tournament progressed. And the domestic competitions weren’t much better – the Heineken Cup was dominated by the French, and won by a bosh-and-bullet bunch of mercenaries whose only try in the knock-out stages involved Europe’s most dislikeable player. Ulster and Leinster served up a decent Pro12 final that befitted a rejuvenated competition, but only Leicester Tigers really got the pulses racing.  When you’re relying on the Tigers for attacking rugby, well…

The Lions are essentially composed of Leicester and Leinster players bolted onto the (Six Nations winning) Wales squad – and it’s been grim to watch. If the Lions do manage to win in Sydney, it will be a disaster for Northern Hemisphere rugby – a Neanderthal gameplan that prizes brawn over brain will have prevailed and will doubtless become orthodoxy all the way to RWC15. At least Ireland can rely on Joe Schmidt to buck the trend, but on the squidgy February pitches even he will be up against it.  Where are the skills? Where is the daring? I’m sure we aren’t alone in thinking players don’t need to be from below the equator to be able to play an enterprising and watchable brand of rugby, while retaining enough forward power to get the Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeave going.  Fancy the Lions Tour commemorative DVD under your Christmas tree?  No thanks.  But… Immortality!

Ultimately, wouldn’t it be better to come home in a welter of hand-wringing, wondering why the best that four Nations has to offer couldn’t beat a Wallaby team that was begging, begging, to be beaten. There’s something unsettling about the thought of Gatland being vindicated having presided over such a dispiritingly awful series and after his grandstanding in dropping Brian O’Driscoll.  In Sydney, we’ll be hoping the Lions come out, and contrary to all the pre-match signifiers, give it a good lash, play some decent stuff, show well (all of them, not just the Irish), contribute to a great game of rugby and thrash the Aussies by four tries to one.  But if they set their stall out to grind and bosh their way to a win, there will be a considerable dose of schadenfreude in Cordite Towers if they get what they deserve, which is to lose.

Post-script: re the OUTRAGE – have we really gone for the ‘Justice for BOD’ line? Justice? Really? Too strong? Maybe we should ask the Egyptian public their thoughts on this ‘injustice’?

Reductive

Ha!  What was our headline again?  ‘Get Quick Ball. Use Quick Ball. Repeat’, was it?  Joke’s on us.  ‘Hoof ball. Chase ball. Repeat’ would be more like it.  What looked, optimistially, to be a team selection to move the point of attack in fact turned out to be one sent on to the pitch to chase high balls.  It was puke rugby and the Lions deserved to lose.

Warren Gatland stands to be castigated for exceptionally reductive, negative tactics in a second test which was there for the taking against a nervous, mistake-ridden Australia.  But by relying on chasing (admittedly pretty accurate) garryowens and winning (admittedly superbly contested) turnovers on the deck, and refusing to try and play rugby with ball in hand, the Lions found themselves hoping to defend their way to victory.  Eventually the dam burst.  The Lions can point to how close they were to a series win, but the truth is that had Leali’ifano been kicking last week the series would be over.  Sure, Australia played as if they had a rifle pointed at their feet and their finger on the trigger for most of the game, intent as they were to throw the ball forward, but eventually the passes stuck, the fly-half found a running angle, and they came up with the winning score.

The most damning statistic in the ESPNscrum.com horror-show was that Johnny Sexton passed the ball ten times in the match (second most damning statistic: 15 of 20 Lions had more tackles than metres carried).  The Lions have a huge advantage at fly-half, where Europe’s finest is facing off against a player who is unfamiliar with the requirements of the position at test level. Instead of trying to press home that advantage, they have him performing a role that his deputy, the obviously inferior Owen Farrell, could easily manage.  What are they thinking?

Gatland can argue that the intention was not to reduce the gameplan to kicky-kick, and that the lack of go-forward ball presented to the halves necessitated that they adopt a conservative approach.  Fair enough, but with the team he put out, is it any wonder?  It was pretty obvious that with the backrow and centres selected, the Lions were going to struggle to get over the gainline.  Gatland could have picked any or all of Sean O’Brien, Toby Faletau or Manu Tuilagi but declined on all three counts.  The media are only too keen to paint Dr. Roberts as a panacea to all their woes, but that overlooks the fact that there were alternatives in place to compensate, and also that Roberts hasn’t really played very well at all since Hong Kong.  He’s a fine player, but doesn’t have a magic wand (he has started 5 games against Australia and lost 4) . Also, the sight of Leigh Halfpenny fielding a garryowen in some space with men outside, then promptly booting it into orbit, doesn’t quite speak to a ball-in-hand gameplan.

Similarly, the strife at scrum time was only too predictable, because Vunipola is so poor in the set piece.  The medics will be working hard to get Alex Corbisiero out this week, and how they need him.  The lineout was a showcase of how muddled the thinking has got; when they’d Croft in the team last week, they threw to the front all day.  When they didn’t they went for the tail.  Confused?  You’re not the only one.

The real clanger of a performance came from Ben Youngs, who was at his arm-flapping, faffing-about worst, admittedly behind a retreating pack.  Conor Murray hugely improved the picture when he came on and is better able to control the game when on the back foot.  Are we about to see Warren Gatland go through his entire roll-call of scrum halves over the three test matches, and start Murray in the decider?  And is he about to try and rebalance his backrow once again (notwithstanding that he must replace Warburton due to injury)?  If he does, it will be symptomatic of a failure in selection, an inability to identify the form players.

The real disappointment is that in the warm-up games, the Lions at least appeared determined to play some rugby.  But any aspiration to creativity has disappeared once the test matches have begun.  It looks like the Lions have been suckered into the thinking that ‘winning’ rugby is somehow synonymous with strangling the life out of games.

It makes you despair for the future of the Lions.  We are told that this is the utmost, the pinnacle of the game, but the test matches have been, on the whole, poor to watch, and Lions have been boring.  The Aussies are in pole position to finish off the series in Sydney; they have the momentum and have shaken off their place-kicking hoodoo.   If the Lions don’t win this series, when are they going to win one?  But even worse, if they go down having barely tried to attack Australia, it would beg the question, what is the point?

Geech’s 2009 Lions won many friends because of the enterprise they showed.  They lost, but they ran one of the great teams of the professional era mighty close, were distinctly unlucky and went down swinging playing some great stuff in an era where great stuff was few and far between; 2009 was the year of the ELVs, remember.  In doing so, they put the soul back into a franchise that had suffered huge damage in 2005.  If Gatland’s team perform in Sydney as they did on Saturday, they will have undone that work. The next time we see them, they’ll be going to New Zealand.  Good luck with that one.

Tackling AND carrying? Nah, no-one can do that.

One test down and the Lions have gone one-nil up, yet the odds on them taking the series (starting from generous prices, in our opinion) have barely moved. The Lions may have won, but they erred badly in a number of fields: selection (unbalanced backrow), tactics (Mike Philips booting the ball in the air or running into Ben Mowen), playing the referee (peep! off your feet .. peep! off your feet … peep! off your feet) and bench usage (the sight of the reserve Australian front row marching the Lions scrum backwards was an absolute embarrassment).  Australia made plenty of boo-boos of their own, especially with selection at 10 where the continued reluctance to forgive Quade Cooper is increasingly looking like the rock on which Dingo Deans will perish.  In the end the Lions squeaked home for a fortuitous victory.

Four years ago, the Lions got selection wrong too, but they looked coherent and had a gameplan to trouble the opposition. They were then playing the world champions, a team at the peak of their powers, about to win the Tri-Nations with a number of all-time greats in situ (John Smit, Bakkies & Victor, Fourie du Preez, Bryan Habana) – here they were playing a decent and underrated Australian team, but still an average enough one, and struggled, fading badly in the last 20. They could/should (delete as appropriate) have lost by 15 points. And this in spite of the Wallabies having four backs carried off, and losing their goalkicker and key attacking weapon Christian Leali’ifano after 42 seconds.

Even with a different selection and tactics, with no Dr Roberts and with Philips owned by Will Genia and Mowen, the Lions are up against it in this test. They got away with the first win, and the Aussies are more likely to improve as the series goes on, and surely can’t experience another perfect storm of head injuries.

If it comes to a decider, the Lions are goosed.  Why?  Well, injuries for a start.  Sure, both sides are just as liable to get them – heck, the Aussies had three players leave the field in neck braces – but if they do lose players ahead of the third test, they have a whole nation of players to choose from (well, NSW and Queensland, but you get the point).  If the Lions get badly hurt, the time for flying out emergency rations is over.  They must make do and mend with what they’ve got.  Or bring in players who are holidaying nearby.  Hello, Tom Court! Don’t suppose Lesley Vainikolo is visiting relatives in Oz?

There’s also the momentum swing-o-meter.  Should the Aussies level the series at 1-1, they’re the ones with the momentum whlie the Lions will be edgy, and they’ll expect to carry that through to the final test, just as they did in 2001.

It all makes this match something of a boom-or-bust for Gatland.  He got away with a flawed selection for the opener, and will have to make some changes in personnel and alter his gameplan a fair deal to win again.  Fate as not been kind to him, and two of his certain starters – Paul O’Connell and Alex Corbisiero – have been ruled out.  While O’Connell is the better player, at least there’s a like-for-like replacement in Geoff Parling (at least in playing terms – leadership qualities aside). At loose-head prop, it’s a choice between Vunipola, who got mashed into the turf in Brisbane; Ryan Grant, who is a better scrummager but is “limited” in the loose; or holidaymaker Tom Court. No easy solution. 

We were a little taken aback by just how poor Vunipola was in the set piece. We knew he was no technician, but we expected the Lions would at least be able to get the ball out on their own put-in, even if it was the sort of unusable rubbish that requires the scrum half to jump into the breakdown.  Alas, even that lowly ambition proved impossible.  He’ll be held back as impact reserve again, and Grant will presumably start.  Don’t expect to see Vunipola before the 60th minute this time, as Gatland will be more circumspect about changing up his front row after the way it backfired.

The backrow remains the most competitive and contentious area, and one where Gatland probably got it wrong in the first test, despite choosing from an embarrassment of riches.  After the way Will Genia ran wild and free, we’ve a really strong feeling that Dan Lydiate will come in to the equation.  While this is outright speculation, we’ve a feeling Gatty bowed to some pressure, whether from Rowntree or the English media, to pick Tom Croft for the first test, but doesn’t 100% trust him.  Now’s his opportunity to pick Lydiate with a view to shackling the Aussie scrum-half, around whom everything happens for Australia.  Stop Genia and you stop Australia.

With Lydiate and Warburton in the team, and with Vunipola unselectable because of his scrummaging, the Lions’ pack’s biggest issue is a lack of tackle-breaking ball carriers.  So there’s a chance we could see Toby Faletau selected for a bit of explosive ball-carrying. It would be harsh on Heaslip, who played well in the first test in getting through a mountain of dog work.  Faletau played for 80 minutes yesterday, which makes it odds against, but don’t rule it out.  Tackle-breaking ball-carriers who can also mount huge tackle counts, you say? What a pity they didn’t bring a multi-functional backrow forward, who is in form. Hang on, they did, didn’t they? Sean O’Brien. The Carlow chap. Likes cows and that sort of thing.  O’Brien seems to be falling between the gazelle-like Croft rock and the iron tackling Lydiate hard place, and at this stage is almost becoming something of a cause celebre. Sure, he isn’t a lineout option, but then again, with Tom Youngs throwing to the front to avoid Mowen every time, who cares? He is bang in form and the Wallabies don’t want to see him – he should play at blindside, but surely – surely! – he’ll at least feature off the bench this time.

The line-out was a bit of a puzzler.  Palla Ovale remarked at the time that he couldn’t understand why the only time the Lions went to the tail they tried to maul off it, and tried to go quickly into midfield off all the front-of-lineout ball they won.  Surely tail of the lineout ball is the only opportunity to get the ball to the backline with a bit of space in front of them?  Happily, far greater minds than our own thought exactly the same thing, proving us right in our own heads and enabling us to feel very happy with ourselves.

The Lions have to make a choice at half-back.  Not in terms of personnel, but in terms of gameplan.  Phillips had one of his worst test games in memory on Saturday and looked decidedly rough around the edges.  He’s a class player, however, and neither Conor Murray nor Ben Youngs have made a compelling case to oust him, so he’ll start again.  Sexton, of course, will also start.  Both Sexton and Phillips are alpha-halves who want to dominate and control the game.  The Lions spent much of the first test trying to use Philips’ running game to make ground, but got nowhere.  Once they started using Sexton, his varied kicking game and slick passing game caused Australia all sorts of trouble.  Gatland must sacrifice some of Phillips’ natural game and instruct him to be more of a servant to Sexton, who has the ability to bring the superb three-quarter line outside him into the game in lethal fashion.  What a pity Danny Care decided to play absolutely rubbish in the lead up to squad selection, in top form he would be a potentially superb alternative and perfect foil for Sexton, if his pack could protect him.  He’s basically a better Eoin Reddan.

At inside centre, the indications are Roberts won’t be back until Sydney, and it’s a choice between keeping Johnny Davies there or taking a chance on Manu. Davies is the probable safer option, particularly if Faletau comes in. We would have concerns about his defensive positioning facing Lilo (he occasionally drifted into the 12.5 channel and left Sexton defending a huge piece of real estate, but Pat McCabe and Michael Hooper never exploited it) but he has been playing well.  Manu has shown signs of dovetailing with BOD and there’s a compelling case to be made for his rough-hewn but often thrillingly destructive talents, espcially given the already discussed shortage of tackle breakers in the single-digit numbered shirts.

Tommy Tommy Bowe will come into the 23, but we don’t know if Cuthbert will make way on the right wing – he took his try well and didn’t do a whole lot wrong, apart from one horribly spilled ball. The progressive selector would pick Bowe (and Tuilagi incidentally) but we just can’t decide how Gatty will swing.  He appears to be saying a lot of lovely things about Bowe, but Cuthbert’s try might be enough to swing it for him.  Who knows?

We were confident last week that Gatland had made a mess of his bench, and so it transpired.  It was straight out of the Declan Kidney school of Substitutions.  He made changes too early where none were required, and then appeared to get spooked and made no more until very late on.  Vunipola looked like being the very definition of an impact reserve, but in the end he had the wrong kind of impact.  Ben Youngs should have been an upgrade on Mike Phillips – how could he not be? – but he wasn’t really much better.  In the backrow Dan Lydiate made only a cursory appearance, after all the broohaha over his selection.  This time around we’re hoping to see names like Richie Gray, Sean O’Brien and Tommy Bowe, so hopefully there’ll be a bit more oomph stepping off the pine.

Even with the selection we’d like, we think the Wallabies will win – they have lost Barnes, McCabe and Ioane, but the Honey Badger will probably come in (cue joy all around), Folau will move to full back (where he has played most of his rugger i.e. 12 starts from 14) and Beale will start – probably at 10 with Bieber on the wing. Their pack played well and the team should shake off the rust and play more confidently. It’s a big ask for the Lions without O’Connell and any of their three best scrummaging looseheads, but picking the right team from those available would be a start.

Dark Side of The Moon

Watching the Liiiiiiiiiiiiiions match as Kurtley Beale lined up the sure-to-be-matchwinning penalty, it seemed the men in red were about to lose.  We’d resigned ourselves to feeling disappointment, only for  – hang on a second, what was that?  Disappointment?  This is the Lions, the pinnacle of rugby, about to have the first win of the series scratched off with the last kick, and all we could muster up was a sense of disappointment?  ‘Fraid so.

In fact when the Lions had won the match, we almost felt guilty cheering.  It was a flukey win, and the players – O’Driscoll especially, and Gatland too in fairness to him – had the good grace to look pretty sheepish in their post-match interviews.  This was ‘Get Out Of Jail Free’ stuff if ever we saw it. If Ireland has accomplished the same after Owen Farrell slipped, we’d be drinking deep from the well of schadenfreude, and, without putting too fine a point on it, absolutely bloody loving it.  But we felt sorry for Beale.

Had Beale scored the winning penalty, it was not about to become a moment etched into our souls forever, like some losses, which are so awful you never quite forget them, and can recall just how you felt at the time if you remember hard enough. I’m thinking of Vincent Clerc’s try at Croke Park, after which I could barely speak for half an hour and couldn’t bear the thought of drinks in the pub; Leinster losing to the Ospreys, coughing up a historic double in the dying minutes.  Every rugby fan will have their own.

It would have been more a feeling of being sad for the players, especially the likes of Paul O’Connell and Brian O’Driscoll whose careers deserve a winning Lions series on their ‘palmeras’ when they retire.  But it was not about to be a gut-wrenching, week-ruining defeat.  But why?

At times, the Lions thing just gets a bit much.  It’s great fun, and the concept of four countries coming together for a lengthy tour is obviously a winning one, but it often feels a bit like we know it’s the pinnacle of rugby for everyone involved because… the commentators on Sky keep telling us it’s the pinnacle of rugby for everyone involved.  We know it means a lot to the players to play for the Lions, but is that not because the act of being selected is an achievement in itself, being recognised as the best player in your position across the four nations?  The specific act of playing for the Lions rarely amounts to much, as it mostly involves getting beaten.  Has such hyperbole ever been drummed up over such a bunch of serial losers?  For all the talk of the spiritual nature of the shirt and the greats that have gone before, they have mostly handed down a legacy of losing test matches.  The successful tours are eulogised ad nauseum precisely because they are so rare.  Four combined nations, bringing together about 75% of the rugby talent the northern hemisphere has to offer, and they can’t even beat a single nation.  No wonder the French sneer at us.  Well, when they’re good, at least.

The matches are generally exciting and there is something great about seeing the four nations come together and witnessing, say, Jamie Heaslip and Sam Warburton embracing at the final whistle yesterday.  But we fall just short of wetting our knickers over it in the same way Stephen Jones and Ian McGeechan – men who would have the entire rugby calendar altered to put the Lions at the centre of it – do.  There is a grain of truth when we say that the moaning about selection is more enjoyable than the games themselves.  We have written in the past about Irish fans not feeling a sense of ownership of the national team in the same way that they do of their province.  Well, who owns the Lions?  Errr… Geech? Willie John McBride?? Sky Sports???  No doubt for those following the tour, it’s easy to buy wholesale into the mega-hype, but for those a continent away on their couches, it’s hard to feel that the team represents you as a supporter.

Plus, it all gets a bit Harlem Globe-trotters – when you have the cream of Wales, Ireland, England and Scotland thrown together, the temptation is to treat the whole thing as a kind of exhibition. Instead of cursing Israel Folau for all that cash he gets, or calling Michael Hooper a cheating scumbag, or saying Berrick Barnes kicking is worse than his moustache, you find yourself being the ultimate sportsman, and enjoying the achievements of the opposition. For one, Egg kind of sort of wanted Beale’s kick to go over – for the better team would have won, for the drama of it, and for Beale himself. When Israel Folau got the ball from Ben Mowen with three men still to beat – all excellent defenders – our heart rate quickened, and not in a not-that-goon-Chris-Ashton way, but more in a visceral I-really-really-love-this-sport kind of way.

Without getting too Thinking Fans Guide to the World Cup * about it, the Lions is a bit like listening to Pink Floyd’s Dark Side of the Moon.  You know it’s fantastic and the feats on display are hugely impressive.  You’ll certainly return to it again and you enjoy listening to it.  But it doesn’t quite stir the emotions in the same way as The Stone Roses, Van Morrisson’s Astral Weeks or the third Velvet Underground album.  No, that’d be your club.  Or your province.  Or your country.

Now, where were we.  Oh yes.  Sean O’Brien has to – HAS TO – start the second test… But he won’t.

* this was a book that came out for the soccer world cup in Germany in 2006 – it was possibly the most right-on middle-class do-gooding sports book ever written. The basic message was that nationalism was so uncouth – so George W. Bush, so property boom – that it was better to support countries based on who they were. Into good wine, food, and classical music – Azzuri! Into developing world land reform issues and wearing those shawls everyone who has been to Macchu Picchu has – Bolivia! Into high tackles, boshing and paradise – Samoa! Ok, maybe not the last one, but it was eye-gouging (Argentina!) stuff.