The launch of the new European Champions Cup brought with it a promise of more competitive groups. Fewer rubbish teams and more talent concentrated into five pools; it would be harder to qualify and more exciting. We were sceptical, but said we would return before the final round of matches and review. So here we are.

To be fair to the Champions Cup, it has more or less made good on its promise. Whether this is by accident or design is hard to parse, but for sure this is the most interesting round six for a good few years; there are plenty of games with a lot at stake and a less than certain outcome. The scrap for the last couple of runners-up places is going to be especially fraught, and could go down to the final minutes of the weekend, which looks set to provide drama by the bucketful.

Things get off to a pretty good start with Wasps vs. Leinster, which has the look of the game of the weekend. An up-and-coming team at home to an established one, with qualification at stake. James Haskell vs. Jamie Heaslip in a battle of the metro men. Forget awesome power and thudding collisions, feel the hipster sandwiches and post-match grooming discussions. It’s set to be a cracker.

Next, Northampton play Racing Metro, and while both should qualify, the winner tops the pool and wins a home quarter-final. Later that evening, Ulster play Leicester. The Nordies are out but they will put it up to Leicester, who need a five-pointer to have any chance at all of going through. The two have had some great ding-dongs in recent years, and this fixture offers a chance for Ulster to salvage something from what has been a miserable campaign.

Sunday afternoon brings us to Pool Four, where any one or two of Bath, Toulouse and Glasgow can go through. Bath vs. Glasgow sees two of the most enterprising teams in the tournament go up against one another. Slammin’ Sam can’t get into the Bath team, and anyone who saw Jonathan Joseph and Kyle Eastmond last week will know why. If Bath win, that takes them to 19 points, and probable qualification. Finally, Clermont take on Saracens. In spite of a decent campaign, Saracens are in a pickle and are odds against to qualify. They’ve already beaten Clermont, did the double over Sale, but may rue a lack of bonus points. They failed to get anything from Thomond Park and should have knocked Sale for four tries at least once, and butchered umpteen opportunities to get a fourth try against Munster last weekend. Even a losing bonus point in Clermont – a fine achievement if you can do it – might not be good enough. They’ll have the advantage of knowing exactly what they need to get and there’s every chance the outcome to be in the balance as the match clock ticks over into the red.

So, how has it all come to pass? None of the factors that were trumped up in the fractious birth of the new format have been relevant. Premiership sides’ supposed battle against the threat of relegation has been non-existent thanks to Bucaresti Welsh, while the usual suspects in the Pro 12 miraculously find themselves on course for qualification again next season without having to divest huge resources to the league campaign.

What has been notable is that the Pro12 teams have had a particularly rubbish campaign. The most likely scenario is that just one of their number, Leinster, will qualify, and that may not even come to pass. Ospreys and Glasgow have still to find a way of bringing their league form to bear against the more physical English and French sides, while the challenge of Ulster and Munster, serial qualifiers over the last few years, has been particularly hopeless this time around for various reasons.

Back in our original analysis, we implored the middle-ranking sides to step up to the mark and put it up to the established teams. The English sides have achieved this more than any other: all of Wasps, Harlequins and Bath have had a bearing on the tournament. Bath have been revelatory, and look set to qualify. Wasps also have a great chance, meaning two teams who lost their first two games might qualify – a first (and second) by our reckoning. Quins dropped the ball in round five, but remain in the hunt, just about. Even Sale, marooned on two points, have been somewhat unlucky in their three home games and could have won all of them. For all the talk of sugar-daddies and bully-boy tactics, many observers have noted that this year’s Aviva Premiership is faster paced and more watchable than previous vintages, with a greater emphasis on running and passing, and less on boshing and kicking. Less Oooooooooohhh! and more Aaaaaaaaaaaahhh! Bath, Northampton, Harlequins and Wasps are all playing with a degree of width and purpose in attack. Even Saracens have widened their game. It looks to be paying dividends on the European stage.

Worth noting as well that the qualification criteria have changed – points obviously first, then results & points difference in the pool, then it’s points difference for the runners up, and not tries – because, it’s y’know, what the fans want. It’s pretty correlated anyway – except for Ulster, who have the 6th best try count and the 16th best points difference. Pity they are gone. Anyroads – here’s the Cordite Predictions for the knockout seedings:

1. Northampton (23)
2. Toulon (22) – better points difference
3. Clermont (22)
4. Bath (20) – win pool due to better points difference with Toulouse, and better tournament points difference than Wasps
5. Wasps (20)
6. Toulouse (20)
7. Racing Metro (19) – better points difference than Leinster
8. Leinster (19)

Two all-French quarter finals, and all-English and a trip to Northampton. In truth, Leinster would take that ahead of trips to Toulon or Clermont, but we implore them to go to Wasps and win: for the fans, for Ireland, for the Pro12 and for the foreign markets which are more important than ever nowadays.

BT Sport featuring montage of Chris Ashton swan diving in Premiership games: The inaugural ERC is back, and with form-lines only stretching back two games, it’s extremely hard to predict how teams will adapt to this brand new competition

Sky featuring footage of HEC finals ending with a close-up of RADGE: The storied European Rugby competition is back for the first leg of another classic head-to-head double featuring some of the most decorated players in rugby history.

It’s back, indeed. And, rather befitting the BT Sport version of events, the Irish aren’t smugly looking down at our English and French cousins and preaching about culture and passion, but are looking over their shoulder in worrisome fashion at what might be bad news down the track.  Wahtever the format, division of incomes, or broadcasters, the December double headers reliably bring European rugby to a crescendo.

In the blue corner, it’s a more Irish version of London Irish – the current iteration of Leinster are booting the ball really far down the pitch in an aimless fashion, making mistake after mistake and causing dissention among the frappuccino and rosemary focaccia scoffing denizens of D4 roysh. The gimme of a pool draw they got has now been flipped on its head – how embarrassing would it be rosyh, if we didn’t even get a home quarter final.

Eight points in this double header (for it’s rather fanciful to expect four tries after the eye-bleeding display against Hairsprays B’s the other night) would likely suffice for that goal. However, it speaks volumes for current confidence levels that winning twice over the ninth-best team in England is not considered a formality, but only a possibility based on current performance levels. If Leinster get over the hurdle that is the Stoop, that home quarter-final is a probability, but the stylish whack-job you could expect in the Schmidt days is unlikely.  Leinster will be looking to revive the spirit of the Stoop when they improbably won 6-5 back in April 2009 in what history will record as perhaps their most important ever match, and another scrap in a similar vein, if not quite so bloody – wink, wink – seems likely.  Quins have dropped off a level or two since they won the Premiership but they are better than their ninth position in the league suggests.  They’ve won precisely one game fewer than Saracens in the league, and beat Wasps away from home in this pool.  Danny Care must surely be hungry after a difficult November, and this is the very platform for him to make his point.  A win is not beyond Leinster, but on current form they may have to make do with a bonus point and look for revenge next week.

Up north, praying fervently in the white corner, it’s the proud, upstanding God-fearing Ulstermen, featuring predictability and cloth-eared stupidity from Nick Williams. What a pity this is virtually a dead rubber.  Ulster lost in “Tomond” last week with an error-strewn and direction-less performance – the pack looks devoid of all discipline, the backrow samey and badly missing Chris Henry, and the backline unable to create anything. The return of Dan Tuohy and Ruan Pienaar will help, but even to beat this ocassionally impressive Scarlets side will need an upswing in performance. They will need 19 points from their next 4 games to even think about sneaking into the knock-outs, and will target 10 points from this double header. Based on current form, that’s pretty unlikely. We bet on a Pienaar-inspired improvement, but only 8 match ponts garnered.

Finally, the big ‘un.  In the brave and faithful corner, we have the extreme passion of Munster, who face the toughest assignment of all – a double header with mental strength’s Clermont Auvergne, the first leg being at “Tomond”. Donncha O’Callaghan is suspended and we’re reliably informed he was this close to unseating Billy Holland from the bench.  A cruel, cruel blow.  But despite that, Munster, against all pre-season expectations, are the best of the Irish provinces right now, with technical excellence from their forwards supplemented by a rich vein of form from Conor Murray, currently Europe’s best scrummie, and Ian Keatley, in the form of his career, some poor execution against Ulster aside. Certain email indiscretions are receding from memory, and Ivan Dineen and Johne Murphy don’t feature much these days anyway.

Clermont might have broken their Ireland hoodoo in the Palindrome against Leinster two years ago, but this is still aside that struggles away from its citadel – losing in Toulon is no disgrace, but losing in Bayonne, Oyannax and Bordeaux – well, it isn’t great.  It’s hard to have too much confidence in them when they go on the road.

Still, this is an imposing and excellent squad – we expect a fight as opposed to the supine lie-down performed by Toulouse last year. The scrum will give Munster plenty of problems, where BJ Botha is a diminished presence and neither Kilcoyne nor Casey are scrummaging powerhouses. A midfield of Lopez and Fofana is likely to pose many more questions than iHumph and McCloskey, but this sort of European game is new territory for Lopez, and his credentials will be tested. And, speaking of iHumph, now that the silence for the kicker policy has been officially abandoned, psyching out of the opposition kicker a la Owen Farrell, is less likely than in previous years. We expect two home wins, but Clermont to get a bonus point in Limerick and perhaps to squeeze out on top in match points. In a tight three-way dogfight, every point counts.  Using a baseline of nineteen points as we outlined earlier this season, Saracens’ bonus point win over Clermont looked to have them on +1, but their failure to take anything from Thomond Park brought them back to scratch.  Five points is the pass-mark for Munster over these two games, and limiting Clermont to no more than five is just as important.  It’s the match-up of this, and next, week, a potential European classic.

Yawn. Isn’t this uncomfortable – an Irish series without people having anything to argue about. Even the Thornley Gazette tried to start a pointless argument with its inane click-bait Top 50 nonsense, but it didn’t work. The selection debates for the game are either for fringe RWC players or simply to try out new players and combinations – we’ll post on those when the team is out tomorrow.

But, to remind people what we are actually facing, we are going to re-blog a piece we did a few years ago on the last time Ireland played Georgia – it was part of a series on particular games Ireland played in the professional era. Swallow hard, chaps, here we go:

The Game: Ireland 14-10 Georgia, 15 September 2007

What it Defined: the decline of the Eddie O’Sullivan era and the 2007 World Cup catastrophe

The State of Play

Ireland are travelling to the world cup in rude health, with a fully fit squad and sky-high expectations.  In short, Irish rugby has never had it so good.  The team is settled and the age profile of the team is optimal, with all its key leaders in the 25-29 bracket.  They have played a lot of very good rugby over the previous twelve months.  In the November internationals they reach new peaks, comfortably beating South Africa and Australia and thrashing the Pacific Islands.  The Six Nations is thrilling, heartbreaking, but ultimately encouraging.  Ireland lose it on points difference to France, but most commentators agree Ireland are the best team in Europe.

Huge credit is given to (and lapped up by) their one-man-band of a coach, Eddie O’Sullivan.  Uninterested in delegating and something of a control freak, he has full control of all elements of the team.  Perhaps his greatest accomplishment is the conditioning of the players, which has seen Ireland shed its long-held reputation as a 60-minute team.  Much is made of their visits to the cryotherapy chambers in Spala, Poland, where the players sit in sub-sub-zero temperatures for short periods of time, which improves the recovery speed of the muscles.  When a bunch of photographs of the players messing on the beach goes viral, the nation marvels at these specimens; tanned and toned, muscles rippling.  To reflect the coach’s achievements he is handed a four-year contract before the World Cup has even begun.

But there are a couple of problems looming, though nobody is overly concerned yet.  After the Six Nations, both Munster and Leinster limp out of the Heineken Cup in the quarter finals.  It means it’s a long time without high-intensity matches.  The summer tour to Argentina sees Ireland lose twice, and draws clear lines of demarcation between the first XV, “Eddie’s Untouchables”, who don’t travel and the rest of the squad, the tackle-bag holders, who do. The tour was ominous – granted, the first XV weren’t there, but the ease with which Argentina dispatched Ireland was a worry.

And Ireland’s pre-tournament preparation did not go well.  They’ve played poorly, losing to Scotland and only beating Italy in Ravenhill thanks to a highly dubious last-minute try.  The idea of playing a club side, Bayonne, once in camp in France, backfires, with the locals delighting in the role of hired hands set out to soften the opposition up for the main fight with France.  O’Driscoll is punched off the ball and leaves the match with a fractured cheekbone.  Eddie’s squad is rather lopsided, with a wealth of blindsides, but no specialised cover at 7 or 8.

The first game of the tournament sees Ireland play badly against Namibia, the tournament’s lowest ranked side. Eddie picked his Untouchables, with a view to playing them into form – they win 32-17, but it’s an inauspicious start – France and Argentina would put 150 points on the Namibians collectively, yet Ireland actually lost the second half 14-12.

Now the alarm bells were ringing – it was Georgia next, and any opportunity to play some of the dirt-trackers was gone as the imperative was to get the first XV back to life. This was the last opportunity before the real games come, against hosts France, and a fired-up Argentina side which has blown the tournament open by beating France in the opening game.

The Game

The first half is a pedestrian affair.  Ireland get a try, through Rory Best, but David Wallace is sent to the sin-bin and Georgia score the resulting penalty to trail 7-3 at half-time.  Then things go pear-shaped.  Peter Stringer throws a floaty pass towards O’Driscoll, and it’s intercepted for a try.  The body language between O’Driscoll and Stringer as the try is scored is not indicative of a team which is enjoying its rugby.  Girvan Dempsey replies with a try in the corner, which Ronan O’Gara converts to give Ireland a 14-10 lead.  But they cannot put the Georgians away, and as the game enters the last ten minutes it is the minnows who are piling on the pressure.  Winning the physical battle, they pick, drive and maul their way towards the line.  Indeed, they get over the whitewash, but Denis Leamy’s body is under the ball, and Ireland breathe again.

Ireland win 14-10, but it is the closest any established nation has come to such humiliation – had the Georgians showed a bit more poise and not attempted a swathe of miracle drop goals in the second half, the victory was there for the taking.  Ireland’s form is now beyond crisis point.  They have also failed to secure a bonus point, meaning if they lose to France and beat Argentina they could still go out.  The tournament is shaping up to be a disaster – Ireland appear poorly conditioned (but how, when they looked so good?) and Eddie has been forced to stick rigidly to his first team in an effort to play them in to something approaching form, but it hasn’t happened.

This half of WoC (Palla) remembers watching the game through his fingers.  With flights booked to Paris for the following week, it simply didn’t bear thinking about that the long awaited trip could be to see two dead rubbers in the French capital.

The Aftermath

The rest of the World Cup panned out with the inevitability of an unfolding horror story.  Ireland did up their game to an extent against France, but ran out 25-3 losers, two classic poacher’s tries by – who else? – Vincent Clerc enabling the hosts to pull away on the scoreboard.  It left Ireland needing not only to beat Argentina, but win by more than seven and score four tries in the process.  It never looked like happening, and Argentina dominated the match, winning 30-15.  In the first half, when David Wallace, of all people, was gang tackled and driven back 20 metres, it was clear the jig was up.  Juan Martin Hernandez was the game’s dominant figure, dropping three goals with all the fuss of someone buying a pint of milk.

Ireland went home humiliated, having entered the tournament as one of the favourites.  It was an astonishing fall from grace.  What had gone wrong?  Any number of theories were put forward, with the rumour mill going into overdrive.  Ronan O’Gara – having played with all the conviction of a man struggling to remember if he’d left the iron on at home – was having personal problems.  Geordan Murphy had packed his bags after being dropped from the bench for the French game.  Brian O’Driscoll and Peter Stringer had come to blows after the Georgia game.  It went on and on, and was very ugly – the intrusion into certain players lives was completely unnecessary, and quite shocking.

Other reasons with more foundation were offered up.  What was clear was that the players were poorly conditioned for test rugby.  Sure, they looked great on the beach, but they weren’t battle hardened.  The preparation was flawed, and once the team started underperforming, Eddie was unwilling to change the team – save for Peter Stringer, who became something of a fall guy.  The players were miserable in a poor choice of hotel in Bordeaux and became bored and irritable.

Frankie Sheahan offered an interesting nugget in a recent Sunday Times article: he felt the coaches had become too concerned with player statistics.  Certain players were being absolved from blame for particular outcomes because they had hit so many rucks, or made so many tackles.  He felt it contributed to an ‘I’m alright, Jack’ mentality within the squad.  When he talked to Rodrigo Roncero at the post-match dinner, Frankie asked him if the Argentina camp had relied on individual performance statistics.  ‘No’, Rodrigo replied, ‘we don’t care how many tackles a player makes, whether it’s 1 or 100, so long as somebody makes the tackle when it has to be made’.  It spoke of a coach whose philosophy had reached its sell-by date.

The strangest thing was that when the players returned to their provinces, the majority found their form again quickly.  Ronan O’Gara went back to Munster and immediately played as well as he had ever done.  Indeed, he piloted them to the Heineken Cup that year, while Leinster won the Magners League.  The players themselves were at a loss to explain it all.  Shane Horgan recently recalled irate fans demanding answers as to why they had been so poor, and his thoughts were: ‘You want answers?  I’m the one who wants answers!’

Eddie had one more Six Nations to put things right, but by now he was a busted flush.  He belatedly and reluctantly let a bang-in-form Jamie Heaslip have a game, and was rewarded with a performance (but no victory) in Paris, but the final two games saw Ireland lose at home to Wales and get thrashed by a Danny Cipriani-inspired England.

Eddie did the decent thing and resigned, leaving the team at a pretty low ebb.  There was only one choice of replacement: the man who had led Munster to two Heineken Cups in three years, and a coach his polar opposite in almost every way: Declan Kidney. The players were crying out for a new approach, and they were going to get one.

With our swollen injury list and a lack of convincing cause celebre in the provinces (who are largely playing like drains), there is a dearth of the traditional interprovincial bickering selection dilemmas. Ross vs Moore – Moore injured. Toner vs Henderson – Henderson injured. O’Brien vs Henry vs O’Mahony (a potentially delicious dilemma) – O’Brien injured. Sexton vs O’Connor – O’Connor injured. Zeebs vs Dave Kearney – Dave Kearney injured, Zeebs qualifies for next round of the bicker-off vs Craig Gilroy.

Which leaves us with but one biggun – centre. It looked like a straight shootout to wear the ICONIC NUMBER 13 JERSEY ™, but rumours are circulating that with Darcy sort-of carrying a knock, and Ireland already looking at fielding several players who are only recently recovered or less than 100% fit (Henry, Kearney and Ross spring to mid) that D’arcy won’t be risked and the possibility of both Henshaw and Payne playing together has been raised.

If so, it’s an unusual call.  Debuting one player in the midfield would be one thing; two at the same time, and possibly putting both into positions with which they are unfamiliar (if it is to be 12 Henshaw, 13 Payne) would be asking a lot of both.  Surely better to have Darcy’s experience alongside whichever is to be the chosen one?  If Payne were to play inside centre presumably it would to be to benefit from his distribution, with Henshaw outside him.  But that would be equally odd because Ireland have two options who are both playing well in that very role this season; Stuart Olding and Ian Madigan.  Why shoehorn Payne into the role when specialists are available?

Henshaw is a big chap whose best attributes are his athleticism. The bludgeon, they say. But it’s not that simple – it rarely is. Henshaw is skillful enough in space to have spent time at full-back and plenty of big centres have been more piano players than shifters – Yannick Jauzion or Shontayne Hape for example. Sorry, not the last one – but someone like Manu Tuilagi is less of a bosh merchant than Barnesy will have you believe.  We’ve no idea how Henshaw’s skills would transfer to 12, but he’s a strong tackler and a hard runner, so he has at least some of the attributes.

The outside centre is the key defensive link in the backline, and the reality is that both are relative newcomers to Ireland’s defensive system.  Schmidt will have some knowledge of how Payne fits in from Agent Kiss’ undercover role at Ravers and from recent training camps – the fact Payne is still in contention likely speaks to some degree of confidence from the brains trust (© Gerry) that he can do the job to some degree.

That said, it’s pretty obvious Payne has not fitted in easily at 13 for Ulster – if he had, there is probably a good chance he would be inked in already for Ireland. Peter O’Reilly made the point this weekend that playing outside Stuart McCloskey is hardly conducive to making much of an impact – we aren’t quite buying that one, but we do recognise that, without Ruan Pienaar, an already half-injured Wee PJ is standing miles behind Paul Marshall (to catch errant passes?) and the space outside is getting compressed. Payne outside Murray/Sexton is a much tastier proposition – and if Payne gets the space he routinely exploits from 15 for Ulster at 13, that’s excellent news. But will he?  Playing the Boks can be a suffocating experience.

One thing’s for sure, Payne’s birthplace won’t come into it.  Schmidt got visibly annoyed in the spring about having to field questions about picking naturalized foreigners like Robbie Diack and Rodney Ah Here  – he rightfully says that naturalization rules are what they are, and he will pick the best players available for Ireland. If it comes down to a cigarette paper between Payne and Henshaw, accent will not come into it. While a bias of commentators and fans towards the “real” Irishman are understandable, and as a nation we are still a bit queasy about the naturalisation laws, it won’t be a factor for the Milky Bar Kid.

We have been wavering all week – on Saturday, we were slightly in the Henshaw camp, but O’Reilly wrote a good piece extolling what Payne could bring to Ireland – it’s easy to forget in the blizzard of negative coverage of his Ulster 13 experience, possibly coloured by his sending off against Saracens, that he is a fantastic footballer, good enough to play underage for BNZ and shine as an attacking threat in Ulster teams containing Tommy Bowe, Paddy Wallace and Ruan Pienaar.

The first game is against the mighty Springboks, who have selected a centre partnership of Jean de Villiers (not his twin, who showed up at Munster) and Jan Serfontein – two excellent footballers and two big men. Are we going to bludgeon through them? Unlikely – we are waifs in comparison. Are we going to play around them? Possibly – but more likely with Payne. Can they bludgeon through us? Definitely – Henshaw minimises this risk. Can they play around us? Definitely – Serfontein is an excellent footballer with an eye for a gap who has long been tipped for Bok caps – that’s a risk no matter who plays.  Whatever way we set up the midfield, it’s a bloody hard game.  Are we about to get a curveball and find Henshaw and Payne thrown in together?  From this vantage point, it would make it all the harder.

When you are scrapping for your life ™ in a Pool of Death ™ every point, nay try, can be crucial ©. Yes, amazingly, this particular piece of trite hyperbole is true and undeniable. Both Munster and Ulster are in prickly pools, and the bonus point distribution is very likely to be a key factor in who tops the pool, and whether the runners-up can join them in the next phase.

In both cases, the baseline scenario for the three contenders (Munster, Saracens and Clermont; Ulster, Toulon and Leicester) is:

• Nine points from the group bunnies (Sale and the Scarlets)
• Eight points from two home wins against the two good teams
• Two points from two away defeats against same

coming to a total baseline of 19 points. Axel and Doak will be thinking that if they get 20, they should qualify, but if they end up with 18, they could finish third in the pool. And, of course, if you lose to the bunnies away or any of your home games, you are goosed.  Denying others points is just as important; if Munster can beat Saracens by more than seven points and deny them a bonus, it’s almost as good as an extra match point.

Munster, by the skin of their teeth, are still alive in the tournament – had they not managed their terrific comeback, they could forget about qualification. But manage they did, and the four points effectively means they are par for the course after one round. In their pool, Globo Gym picked up a home win, and, possibly crucially, scored four tries and got a fifth point. That, in effect, puts them a point ahead of the benchmark, edging them ahead of Clermont and Munster in the reckoning. Clermont will be content enough with their losing bp, particularly as they put it up to a team which had embarrassed them and fed them a forty-burger six months ago, and are also level par. The aggregate number of points dished out in the match was six, which is the result Munster would have least enjoyed.  Contrast with Leinster’s pool where Harlequins and Castres received only four points between them.  Slight advantage Saracens after round one.

The other slightly unfortunate news for Munster is that in beating Sale away from home in round one they may simply have softened them up for everyone else.  It’s a scenario Ulster ran into last year.  Beating Montpellier away looked like a pool-defining result, but it only resulted in Montpellier being less than fully commited and allowed Leicester to follow suit a few weeks later.

In Ulster’s pool, it looked like curtains for the Northerners at half-time in Welford Road – the Tigers had three tries on the board (almost a fourth) and a losing bp seemed a long way adrift. Finishing the game on a match score of 4-1 when 5-0 looked odds-on was quite the achievement – 5-0 would have put Leicester two points up on Ulster in the bonus-off, but now both are on par. Both teams will be feeling a bit bummed after the game – Ulster for losing and Leicester for eschewing a chance to get the boot firmly on a group rival’s throat.

In the same pool, Toulon beat the Scarlets but did not get four tries – this was a slight negative for the champions as they would have been expecting a full haul. They are still more than capable of going to the non-fortress that is Parc y Scarlets and running amok, but it ups the pressure a little. Toulon are just off schedule a little, but plenty of time to rectify that.

Next up it’s must-win home games against last years finalists – Munster open round two up against the likeable ruffians of Saracens and Ulster face the uphill struggle that is Toulon at home. Four points each, and they’ll both stay on course for the target of 19.  Deny the opposition a bonus point and it’s better still.  Easier said than done, though.

The latest news on Donnacha Ryan’s injury is not good – the phrase “last resort” has been used, and what we feared at the beginning of the season, a Jirry-esque spiral into perma-injury and ultimately retirement, now appears a distinct possibility. It’s a toe injury, which seemingly prevents him pivoting and leaves him unable to scrummage. What’s new, say the wags among you, but Ryan in 2012/13 was one of the few to enhance in reputation in the dark dog days of Deccie’s ticket. Ireland could do with having a full strength, snarling Ryan back fit and firing, especially for the world cup, but the probablility is receding.

If Ryan falls into the bucket of “not Paul O’Connell but an international calibre second row forward”, he shares that (hopefully huge) bucket with Big Dev, NWJMB (that’s Iain Henderson to newcomers) and Dan Tuohy. If all four were fit and in their best form, the Milky Bar Kid would have a serious selection dilemma and we’d all be talking about what great depth we have. Henderson is likely to be around the longest, and is the most naturally talented, but he’s just starting out in the row, and will get beefier. Toner has made incremental progress for five years now and was one of Ireland’s most consistent players last season. Tuohy is a guy who we feel got a bit of a bum deal from Deccie from 2010/11 to 2012/13 – he was the most dynamic of all the second rows playing in Ireland at the time, but got consistently overlooked for Donncha. Because we know what he can do. Or something.  Tuohy performed ably in the first game of the Six Nations last year but unfortunately got injured.

But now, three of the four lads in the our giant bucket are injured – Henderson had what seems to be elective surgery on his back, with a view to playing in the 6N and being fully fit for the RWC; Tuohy broke his arm after starting the season as one of Ulster’s standout players; and now Ryan’s very career seems to be hanging in the balance. Ireland have been left in the position that their starters from last year, O’Connell and Toner, are still around, but the guys ranked 3, 4 and 5 on the depth chart are out for November.  Sure, the World Cup and Six Nations are the most important upcoming milestones, but November is an important opportunity to test ourselves against two of the world’s best teams.  And Australia.

That effectively means Ireland are one injury away from having to start Mike McCarthy against the Wobblies and the Boks – he’s done well against the Boks before, but that was at the peak of his powers and he hasn’t been quite at that level since.  He doesn’t lack for beef, but we’d question whether he’s quick enough around the paddock to survive Oz. After that, it’s cover your eyes time. Dave Foley is probably next in line (and the bench option in case of injury to one of the incumbents or McCarthy).  He’s started Heineken Cup games at the business end of the tournament for Munster, and done reasonably well. Then it’s probably Mick Kearney, who is more one for the future than the present… and after that the cupboard is bare.  Think – yikes – Billy Holland, Lewis Stevenson or … Stakhanov! At that point, we’ve got past our #7 and #8 lock (Foley and Kearney). Most international sides would struggle.  But it won’t come to that, right?  Right?

An alternate solution to slumping that deep down the chart would be Schmidt saving himself one of his selection dilemmas in the back row and ask Rhys Ruddock to step forward. It wouldn’t be an ideal situation, leaving Ireland a touch underpowered. After all, he’s never played there. But he plays a bit like a second row.  It would be a bit like Ryan Jones filling in there for Wales.  Still, we’ve still to get three injuries for that to happen – and we’re hardly likely to get three second row injuries in a couple of weeks are we?  Are we?

Rationalization: our current Ireland lock depth chart:

1. Paul O’Connell – Gerry calls him Superman. Level-headed coverage guaranteed. He’s great though
2. Devin Toner – current incumbent and fair’s fair
3. Iain Henderson – he’ll be in Ireland’s engine room through RWC23 at least, injury allowing, but he’s only just got Johann Muller’s shirt
4. Donnacha Ryan – if he gets this toe sorted and returns the same player
5. Dan Tuohy – great hands, a second row who doesn’t fear the pill – who knew?
6. Mike McCarthy – heavy, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Against some teams
7. Dave Foley – bit to go in his development, but played HEC for Munster in the row
8. Mick Kearney – very far to go in his development, but he is improving. That’s something to cling to.
9. Else – be afraid, be very afraid.

British road cyclist Charlie Wegelius in his autobiog Domestique described the Vuelta a Espana, being the final grand tour of the year, as being like a pirate ship, full of riders either totally unmotivated to be there or desperate to salvage their season. So it is with the Pro12 this season; the likes of Scarlets and Cardiff are waiting for the final whistle to blow, while Leinster and Ulster are desperate to atone for recent events in the Heineken Cup. Only Munster are still thinking about their Tour de France, but for how long?

The heat is on as five teams jockey for four final spots. Five into four won’t go and one of Ulster and Ospreys looks set to miss out on the semi-finals, while Munster and Glasgow look to be fighting for home advantage to face one another.  Glasgow are finishing the season with a bolt and Munster will have little desire to face them in Scotstoun, where they beat Ulster comprehensively at the weekend, particularly after they wiped Munster out in a sort-of Toulouse hangover game.

Ulster find themselves in a bit of a pickle; indeed they may not qualify at all. On paper they’re third but have a look at the fixture list and it becomes clear they’re in a squeeze. They’re staring at a horrendous injury list and an unkind fixture list for the run-in. They face Leinster at home and Munster away; two eminently losable matches, especially given the players they have to make do without. They’ll be targeting the home game against Leinster in a big way, because they know they’re unlikely to win in Thomond Park.

One point behind them are Glasgow, but the Warriors have an extra game to play, and they’re on a roll. Not only that, but they’ve a benign run-in, at home to Edinburgh and Zebre and away to Treviso, until recently a hard place to win, but they’re phoning it in this year. Glasgow could very feasibly get a return of 15 points from the three games.

Ospreys are five points behind Ulster, but they have two winnable games in the run-in; away to Zebre and home to Connacht. Ten points are very gettable, which would put them on 70. That would require Ulster to get five from their two matches; they’d have to beat Leinster and get a bonus point from one of their two games to tie on points with Ospreys. The tie-breaker in such an event is matches won, which would work in Ulster’s favour. But can they beat Leinster – who have a good record in Ravenhill – with such an injury-afflicted squad?

Leinster are sitting relatively pretty, six points clear of the brave and faithful at the top, though they still have a bit to do. They have Edinburgh in their final game; a probable five-pointer given the Scottish side were last seen losing to Zebre. A single point from the Ulster game on top of that would be enough to secure top spot; very valuable indeed going into the knockout games.

That leaves Munster, who also play Edinburgh, but away, and face Ulster at home. Second place may be beyond them. Even if they secure 10 points from those two games (a tall order) Glasgow would overhaul them if they can take all 15 points from their three remaining games.

A semi-final line-up of Leinster v Ospreys and Glasgow v Munster looks the most likely outcome, but don’t discount Ulster’s sleeves-rolled-up attitude too readily. Their game against Leinster looks set to be a pivotal fixture, and will help to build on the increasingly keen rivalry between the two provinces. Both sides tend to regard Munster as their greatest foe, but there’s no reason why they can’t fight tooth and nail against each other either, especially with so much at stake.

Ulster are facing into a season of pack-rebuilding, and the opportunity to send off Court, Afoa and Muller with a pot looks like a tough proposition, entailing, as it likely will, having to beat Leinster twice and then win at least one other away game. As for Glasgae, they will keenly recall how fortunate Leinster were to beat them in last years playoffs, and will be thinking about doing an Ospreys in the Oar Dee Esh in May.  Having won in Thomond Park and beaten Ulster in their last two games, they’ll fear nobody.  A well coached side with game-breakers in their superb backrow Joshua Strauss and fit-again wing Sean Maitland, they could well go on to win the pot.

David Nucifora will be confirmed today as the new IRFU Performance Director – and not before time – after a few years of instutional stagnation, it has taken the personality of Joe Schmidt to begin the sweeping-out process. Ireland have successfully negotiated the first couple of stages of the professional era by fluke initially, then well, with the help of some excellent players:

• Early Days (95-99) – the Union were woefully unprepared for the game going open and took some time to come around to the reality that players, once the lackeys of the blazers, were now their employees. The players responded rationally – by going somewhere they would be paid – England. When it reached the stage where the coach wanted the international team to train in England as all the players were there, the Union sparked into life and began to adjust. Signing up players to play at home was that step – Lens is commonly acknowledged as a low point, but Ireland had turned the corner by then and were about to climb the mountain
• Golden Generation (00-08) – backboned by the Ligindary Munster team, the so-called Golden Generation made silverware de rigeur for Ireland fans, winning Triple Crowns in 2004, 06 & 07. That they never took the final step to a Championship was down to some ill-luck and an annual swoon against an excellent French team. The shambolic RWC07 tournament spelled the end for Dagger, and chunks of the team as well
• Silver Generation (09+) – sure weren’t we lucky we had a new generation coming through at all? The provincial academies began producing high-quality young players, leading to Irish dominance in Europe and a new batch of international class players, who are now nearing their 30s, such as Fez, Jamie Heaslip, Johnny Sexton, Bob and Tommy Bowe. Deccie’s first season produced a Grand Slam, but an inability to retire older Golden players and assimilate Leinster players unused to his hands-off method spelled doom. Joe Schmidt came in and got the knack right away, winning the championship in his first season.

Perhaps the most gratifying thing about Ireland’s win this year was the number of players involved who will have no memory of RWC95 in South Africa – whe Ireland were caught in the headlights of a new era and it wasn’t pretty. The likes of McGrath, Moore, Henderson, O’Mahony, Murphy, Jackson and Marshall have only ever known rugby to be professional and well-run – and success comes as an expectation, and with expectations for your working environment. This generation of rugby players have moved Ireland on to a new plane, and the structures that have delivered us from the nadir of 1998 to the trophy-laden current era might need to be tweaked slightly to ensure success going forward.

Here are some things on Nucifora’s desk:

1. Sure isn’t it great we have any props at all? Definitely, but the four best props in Ireland being in one province is not. Next season you will have a situation were Ireland’s starters and backups are in D4, while Ulster re-built a new front row using raw materials like .. er, Calum Black, Ricky Lutton, Adam Macklin, Ruadhri Murphy and Dave Ryan. This isn’t a sustainable situation, or a desirable one. Better spread of talent among the provinces is needed if we are to make the most of the current crop.  Marty Moore is likely to become first choice sooner rather than later, but Jack McGrath is in a tight spot – too good to be a reseve, not quite good enough (because almost nobody in the world is) to unseat Cian Healy. And this situation can be extrapolated to other positions as well – Ulster are stacked with centres, Leinster also at backrow. How do we divvy these out to the provinces?
2. But which provinces? This leads us on to… Connacht. The Westerners have occasionally lived a parlous existence in the professional era, and it seems that, once again, the Union again have the province’s future in their eyes – are they going to be fully-resourced, told they can keep Robbie Henshaw, and given the tools to qualify for the ERCC? Or are they going to be denuded of their stars, and turned into a Chiefs old-boys/Ireland young-boys club that gives European experience to talented youngster who are at the back of the queue in their home provinces? It might seem tough, and unwarranted given the success of the last couple of years, but money talks.
3. What about player management? This has been a strong suit of the IRFU’s and a pull-factor in keeping players in the country, but in the new world where qualification for Europe hinges on Pro12 performance, the league could become more of a hard slog, and the likes of Matt O’Connor and Axel Foley are likelier to want greater access to the players.  It’s not in the IRFU’s interests for any of The Big Three to miss out on the Heineken Cup.  Maintaining the right balance is crucial.  If the Welsh regions can get their act together – they can’t be this bad forever, right? – things could get sticky.
4. Penny-wise, pound-stupid. Refusing to make Johnny Sexton an initial offer to keep him in Ireland this year may have cost Ireland a win againt BNZ and a Grand Slam. We need to be in a position where we can value the contribution, in monetary terms, home-based players make to Irish rugby – in the ERCC era, this likely means pay increases to keep them here – a broader strategy would help too – the year after losing Sexton, we had 10+ internationals with their contracts ending – is this a good idea?  All that said, the IRFU appeared to do a good job in re-signing a number of high profile players this year in the wake of significant French interest, but this side of the job will only get more difficult, especially if the English clubs get to a similar position in terms of wealth to their French counterparts. Already they should be formulating a plan for bringing their most important player – Sexton – back to Leinster when his contract is up next year.  This process should start before the 2014 November internationals – a significant bugbear of the players, and one that seems pointless.
5. Coaches. In Ireland, we have a Kiwi coaching the national side, and an Aussie, two Kiwis and one Irishman at the provinces. Acknowledging that there are Irishmen being lined up at the next level, Neil Doak for example, are we happy that Conor O’Shea, Mark McCall, Birch and RADGE are learning their trade abroad? Will they come home, or won’t they? Ideally they would be here, or abroad for a defined time to learn and bring home new methods of coaching.

Nucifora’s role will involve an element of diplomacy – he will need to straddle the occasional* conflicts between the requirements of the provinces and the national team, and if necessary, crack the whip. Matt O’Connor has been more vocal about his straitjacket than is traditional, and Rob Penney, having nothing to be nice about, has taken to lobbing verbal grenades all around the place. If Anscombe finds himself a similarly lame duck next season and is insisting on playing Nick Williams ahead of Roger Wilson, Nucifora might need to have a conversation. The oft-trotted out line that successful provinces make the national coaches job more difficult was merely a smokescreen to excuse underachievement, but there is little doubt that the relationship could be more joined-up.

* may be more often occasional