All posts in category RWC11

Tipping Point?

Its hard to over-estimate how important this next game is for Ireland. Lets for a second ignore the immediate importance, that of potentially avoiding the Boks at the quarter-final stage of the RWC. There is a much bigger issue at stake – that of the future of the core of this team for the last decade.

Since Ireland abandoned 10-man rugby and came out throwing the ball around Croker against Scotland in the 2010 Six Nations, they have looked increasingly frail. That game itself, they were unlucky to lose, but the  punters noted a free-flowing strategy of passing laterally, coming off second best at the breakdown and an inability to execute the basics well, like passing to each other.

Since then, Ireland’s performance levels have gone only one way:

  • June 2010 tour: P4 L4 (including to the Barbarians in Limerick) – this wasn’t as bad as it appeared – an injury-blitzed Ireland performed very creditably on tour, which saw apparent breakout performances from Dan Tuohy, Mushy and Rhys Ruddock
  • November Internationals 2010: P4 W2 L2 – losses to South Africa and New Zealand were countered by a very scratchy win over Samoa and a solid one over Argentina (which Egg Chaser remembers for holding a 5 day old Mini Egg throughout) – the NZ performance was again respectable in defeat, but it was back to the same old soldiers – Mike Ross and Sean O’Brien had been playing well for Leinster but didn’t get a look-in and the graduate tourists from June were largely jettisoned
  • Six Nations 2011: P5 W3 L2 – fortunate to get out of Rome alive on the opening weekend, Ireland stumbled through the tournament. All seemed to be forgiven with an electric performance to fillet England in the Palindrome, but the rest was forgettable. Except for Gerry, who managed to blame the referees for every shortcoming
  • World Cup warm-ups: P4 L4 – we’ve been over this before. NB Andy Trimble was our best player in August
  • World Cup: P1 W1 – over the States, without a winning bonus point, where Eddie body-slamed Deccie tactically. Generally poor, although Fez, Rory Best and POC were decent

So, in total, 6 wins in 18 games, 4 of them scratchy and 1 very fortunate. However, there has been a consistent tone of optimism emanating from the camp for this entire time, with everything being justified by “wait until Auckland, you’ll see the real Ireland there”.

Well, Ireland are now in Auckland (as are Clan Ovale), and the nation now expects a performance, with some optimists expecting more than that. However, what happens if the form illustrated above is more like what we get? What if, as all sensible indicators say, we get thrashed by the Tri-Nations champions? What if this mythical “performance” doesn’t happen?

Ireland are going in to the most important game of Deccie’s reign with 5 players just back from injury, 2 locks who look like they would struggle to ruck Shane Williams out of the way, and 2 backs whose form is, to be charitable, desperate. They have no idea who their starting half backs are, and have a captain-in-waiting who scarcely deserves his place in the XV. Plus, the replacement forwards are not of Heineken Cup class, never mind World Cup (and rugby is a 22 man game now). Is this what all the work over 3 years of Deccie has been for?

 We are feeling pretty pessimistic here, but if the match goes to form, and Ireland get panned, this group of players will find it exceptionally difficult to lift themselves for the Italy match. We are getting the impression that, mentally, all the eggs are in the Wallaby basket.

And what will that leave us with? An aged (not ageing) team with confidence and mental well-being in pieces – if Italy don’t finish us off, the Boks (including a ravenous Fleshlumpeater) undoubtedly will.

by whiffofcordite on September 15, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Disaster, Ireland, RWC11

Posted by whiffofcordite on September 15, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/09/15/tipping-point/

It’s here!! (Well, almost)

The Rugby World Cup starts tomorrow.  We’ve been building up to this moment all summer.  The Ovale clan is heading down under on tuesday for three weeks, so Palla will be ‘our man on the ground’.  Expect to see updates from his ‘World Cup Diary’.  Meanwhile, Egg Chaser will be looking after the Good Ship Cordite back home.  Our predictions and forecasts are in, New Zealanders are already panicking about not winning, and all that remains is to somehow watch the thing.  The kick-off times aren’t conducive to pint-swilling down in the pub, so what’s the best approach to enjoying the games at such alien hours?  Here’s a handy guide.
1.  Get Sky+ or UPC equivalent.  Nobody wants to be up at 4.30 in the morning to watch Fiji v Namibia.  Get in the recording facility, even if just for the month, and give yourself the option of watching it at a more reasonable hour.  You can fast forward through the endless scrum resets too.
2. Buy in breakfast beforehand.  Getting out of bed at 7am to watch France v Tonga is a tricky assignment, but that’s only half the battle.  Staying awake once you’re on the couch is entirely another matter.  It’s important to have the right breakfast.  Invariably that involves lots of protein and not so much carbohydrate, which is likely to induce food coma.  Think Bertie Wooster (eggs and bacon) rather than The Inbetweeners (rounds of toast).  And a pot of hot coffee is, of course, essential.  Bright light bulbs and a cool room are also likely to stop you nodding off.

3. Parents, take advantage!  If, like both WoC scribes, you have little people running around your house, you’re at a massive advantage.  7am wake up call, you say?  What’s new about that?  Take the easy brownie points on offer and watch the rugby (or ‘fighting’ as Little Ovale calls it) while your spouse enjoys a lie-on.

4. Take a power nap.  If you’re planning to watch Scotland v Romania at 2am in the morning, don’t try staying up all the way.  Chances are you’ll do the hard work and your eyes will fold over at around 1.35am.  Sleep cycles are four hours, so get to bed at 10pm for four hours and you’ll wake up feeling not so dreadful.

5. And finally, have Twitter open!  We’ll be tweeting our thoughts on as many games and key moments as we can manage.

One more sleep!  One more sleep!  One more sleep!

by whiffofcordite on September 8, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Early morning kick-offs, RWC11

Posted by whiffofcordite on September 8, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/09/08/its-here-well-almost/

Stop Press! (Except the Online Ones)

It seems unfair to concentrate on the players, what with so many others putting their heart and soul into this World Cup. There’s been demand for Maori chiefs to welcome competitors at airports, astronauts to retrieve Morne Steyn’s kickoffs and Bayonne butchers wondering why Shontayne Hape is wearing their products on his hands.

Spare a thought also for the scribes and TV pundits covering the tournament – they have been forced to undergo an all-expenses-paid trip away from the Trouble and Strife for a month to watch rugby and drink Marlborough Savugnon Blanc. To cheer them up, we have put together a RWC preview of our favourite hacks and Stephen Jones.
 

Matt Williams (Setanta)

Style: Tends to start with a rabbit-on-the-headlights never-been-on-TV look, but then relaxes into matey banter with Franno. His perfect teeth and healthy tan cover a razor-sharp rugby mind, and his snippets of insider knowledge gleaned from his time in D4 and Ravenhill are always interesting.

Likely to say: Paddy Wallace is an amaaaaaaaaaaaaazing playah, reaaaaaaaaaaaaaally underaaaaaaaaaated
Unlikely to say: Let’s refer to New Zealand as the All Blacks

Jeremy Guscott (BBC)
Style: Self-satisfied, smug, paunch-bearing know-it-all. His judgement can best be summed up by his pre Six Nations verdict on Richie Gray – “He looks like he is running through treacle”. Errrr. Egg Chaser and his brother used to e-mail his BBC column with praise of rubbish players to see if he’d agree – our bigging up of Ayoola Erinle was a notable success.

Likely to say: Brian O’Driscoll isn’t a patch on the outside centre the 1997 Lions had
Unlikely to say: Interesting opinion Inverdale, I’ll take that on board

Ryle Nugent (RTE)
Style: Excited, excitable and exciting, roysh. Ryle has the refined voice and fur-lined coat of a man who has never left South Dublin in his life. His vocal range is huge, and one can generally tell how Ireland are doing merely by listening to the tone of his voice – anything mezzosoprano and above is good.

Likely to say: You beauty!!
Unlikely to say: Bring rugby back to the Northside 

Frankie Sheahan (RTE)
Style: Fiercely neutral and fair in his commentary, he rarely allws the origins of a player to dictate his opinion of them. No matter what you think of Frankie, you can’t argue that players from Cork and Limerick don’t get treated equally in his eyes. His day job is acting as agent for, among others, David Wallace and Tomas O’Leary – expect many references to how much they are being missed (truthful ones in Wally’s case).

Likely to say: Mick O’Driscoll is very unfortunate not to be here

Unlikely to say: What a performance from Jonny Sexton!

Stuart Barnes (Sky Sports)
Style: Surprisingly for a Sky commentator, over-enthusiastic and a strong backer of whatever Sky have the rights for at the time. When you push through the bluster, he’s actually a very shrewd and interesting analyst. Provided Whiff of Cordite with their favourite commentary moment last year in the Leicester-Perpignan game, as they discussed the collective noun for Tuilagi’s (winner: a terror of Tuilagi’s). While they talked, both Henry and Alesana took the ball directly into contact and got turned over.

Likely to say: I know Matt Banahan knocked on, but what power!
Unlikely to say: I know Matt Banahan is powerful, but what’s the point if you have hands like soap!

George Hook (RTE)

Style: Committed to saying the first thing that comes into his head, unless that happens to be a criticism of Munster. Specialises in popping some of the over-exuberant balloons inflated by the Irish press, but has morphed into a cynical parody of himself. Struggles to admit when his far-flung predictions turn out entirely incorrect.  The Irish players despise him.

Likely to say: We’ll get destroyed up front and lose
Unlikely to say: Keep the faith Tom

Stephen Jones (Sunday Times)
Style: Pointless curmudgeon who persists in his outrageously biased nonsense. To be fair, he makes great copy, and we don’t know if it’s us getting older or him getting more mellow, but we have found ourselves in agreement more than is healthy of late.

Likely to say: McCaw is running scared of the intensity of Edgely Park and Sixways by staying with the Crusaders
Unlikely to say: James Hook needs to improve his decision-making on the field

Gerry Thornley (Irish Times)

Style: Torn between Southside chic and Indie cool (Ms Ovale admits to a minor crush), Gerry can often be seen puffing on a Marlboro Light outside O’Donoghues. Favours the stubble, sunglasses and scarf look. Used to be Head Boy at St Deccie’s but has been usurped in favour of Fanning, despite fervent support for the regime. In fact, fervent support of pretty much everything Irish can be guaranteed.

Likely to say: I had to restrain Dave Pearson from licking Wilkinson’s boots roysh
Unlikely to say: Rugby is now a 22 man game, and Deccie needs to learn that

Lets hope the poor dears survive their tourism – Palla will be keeping a beedy eye out for photo ops, especially with Barnesy.

Needless to say, this blog also has a deep connection to Gerry, and we will watch with interest the reaction to his demotion – will he knuckle down and praise the junta more than ever, or actually begin to call the Great Leader out on his mistakes?

by whiffofcordite on September 5, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Frankie Sheahan, George Hook, Gerry Thornley, Jeremy Guscott, RWC11, Stephen Jones, Stuart Barnes

Posted by whiffofcordite on September 5, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/09/05/stop-press-except-the-online-ones/

World Cup Preview: Fiji & Namibia

Group D Opposition: South Africa, Wales, Samoa

Pedigree: With a very respectable history at this tournament, Fiji are twice quarter-finalists, most recently in 2007. Despite having no right to be on the same field as the Springboks (copyright Jacque Fourie), they were far from disgraced in a 37-20 defeat, having earlier disposed of Wales in the pool stages.

This will be Namibia’s 4th successive finals, although they have no wins to report – their best result being the 17-32 humiliation wreaked on Eddie’s Ireland in Bordeaux. To put that in context, their next best results are 30-point defeats to Romania and Georgia, and their worst was 0-142 against the Wallabies in 2003.

Players to watch: Fijian flyer Napolioni Nalaga intimidated much of Europe as part of an all-conquering (well, all except Munster and Leinster) Clermont side, but he failed to return from holiday, then said he was suffering from depression, and ended up being let go. His whereabouts were a mystery until he appeared (and scored two tries) at the PNC – lets hope he is back in full fitness (mental and physical) and his best. Anyone who has watched Racing Metro this season has probably seen Albert VuliVuli get a yellow card for a high tackle – the man is a powerful centre and should love the Bokkebosh game.
If you were told of a Jacques Burger who plays for Saracens, you might guess his nationality as Seth Efrican. But you’d be wrong – he’s Namibian, like Percy Montgomery. Although he’s unlikely to emulate Percy’s 2007 feats. Namibia also have a hooker who has piqued our interest – a man called Egbertus O’Callaghan. We wonder does he give away dumb penalties when Namibia have the opposition under control? If so, we have a funny feeling we know one of his distant cousins…

Good tournament: For Fiji, another quarter-final will be the expectation, and they have respectable records against all of the bigger guns in this pool. Namibia will hope to get away with their dignity intact.

Bad tournament: For Fiji, losing to both Wales and Samoa is the worst-case scenario. Namibia will fear having a century put on them by the notoriously sympathetic-to-the-underdog South Africa – and having the ability to speak the same language as Bakkies Botha is not necessarily a good thing.

Prospects: In one sense, it’s harsh to put these teams together as, unlike some of our other minnows previews, one team is streets ahead of the other. But we had to put Namibia somewhere. They are comprised mostly of home-based players and semi-pros playing in their powerful neighbour next door, with a few lads based in France, England and Romania (!) thrown in. They recently beat Portugal and came within a score of depleted Romania and Georgia sides in the Nations Cup, which is far from disgraceful, although their previous tour in November 2010 saw them emerge winless from Iberia.

At 20th in the world, they are the lowest ranked team in the competition, despite it being their best ever position. As always, one hopes they can do their country proud and expand rugby’s appeal, but this could be a high-water mark, given the cultural background of the sport in their country, and the up-coming teams from Iberia and South America who could potentially overtake them in the near future.

Fiji surpassed all expectations in 2007 with a first quarter-final appearance in 20 years, welting Wales after struggling past Japan and Canada; then giving the Springboks a decent run for their money. Since then, they have exported a few big and threatening backs to France, and had a few pretty successful tours of the Northern hemisphere. In 2009 in the lashing rain at the RDS, they saw Jonny Sexton and Mushy make promising debuts for Ireland, and were in contention until giving away a silly try after half-time, then fell apart. This winter, they should have won in the Millennium, but failed to put away a woeful Welsh side when the opportunity presented itself.

They mostly beat Samoa in their PNC games, but Samoa have more players from Europe to bring in. It’s a huge pity that perhaps their best eligible player, Isa Nacewa, has refused a call-up. It’s hard to blame him, given the circumstances of his single cap, but he would be exactly the kind of intelligent pivot this team could do with if they’re to win three games in this group.

Verdict: Like Samoa, Fiji are involved in a three-team mini-league with Wales. The three teams are fairly closely matched, and it’s feasible each could win one from two. But we anticipate Wales to have too much class and squeeze out Fiji and Samoa in the final reckoning, possibly due to bonus points. Namibia will get panned by all-comers – they have been thrown in with three teams who enjoy throwing the ball around and a fourth who enjoy kicking the ball into orbit and beating up on minnows – we anticipate an average losing margin of around 50 points.

by whiffofcordite on August 30, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Albert VuliVuli, Egbertus O'Callaghan, Fiji, Jacques Burger, Namibia, Napolioni Nalaga, RWC11

Posted by whiffofcordite on August 30, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/08/30/world-cup-preview-fiji-namibia/

Irelandwatch: Things Are Grim, But It’s Not 2007 Yet

As the final whistle went at Lansdowne Road, the only positive to take from the game was that there were none left until the real business begins.  No more opportunities to get injured, no need to endure another 80 punishing minutes of lateral passing and one-out runners.  It’s been a grim series for Ireland, with injuries now beginning to pile-up and confidence shattered.  They have been outmuscled upfront, and dull in attack.  Wally and Felix Jones have been lost to injury, while BOD, O’Brien, Kearney, Heaslip and Healy will travel injured.

The question now being posed is, Are we in a worse position than in 2007?  Then Ireland travelled with little confidence after a similarly poor showing in the warm-up games, but at least everyone was fit (and buff!).  Factor in a daft new contract handed out to management, and you begin to get a sense of deja vu.  The answer, though, is a straight ‘no’.  Yes, we are playing badly.  Yes, the warm up series looks misguided now.  No, we won’t beat Australia.  No, we certainly won’t make it beyond a quarter-final.  But a horror show of 2007 proportions is still a long shot.

Four years ago, each player knew which half of the squad they were in: the untouchables or the tackle-bag-holders.  For all Kidney’s flaws of selection and tactics, he has created a little competition for places.  By leaving O’Leary and Fitzgerald at home, he has served notice that nobody is untouchable.  Yes, he looks to have curious soft spots for the likes of Leamy and O’Callaghan, but it’s not quite a two tier squad.

Life in camp can hardly be worse this time around.  In 2007, the players hated the trips to Spala, hated their soulless Bordeaux hotel, hated the food they got served, hated the long training sessions that were a substitute for games, and a deep malaise set in.  This time around, the hip student town of Queenstown beckons, training will be very light, and the players are currently buying presents for each other.  How lovely!  Everyone in the squad is great friends!  What a shame they’re playing like drains.

Finally, and most importantly, Ireland’s draw is nowhere near as arduous.  In 2007, Ireland were pitted against France in Paris, usually a banker, and a superb Argentina side, which turned up with an almost feral desire to stick one on the old boys club that is the established nations.  When Argentina won the opening encounter against France, it was the worst possible outcome for Ireland, as it effectively left us needing to beat Argentina by four tries.  This time we can be confident Australia will trounce all-comers, leaving us in a straight shootout with Italy – beaten comfortably by Scotland last weekend – to qualify. 

So, it’s good news!  Ireland can play rubbish and still get out with at least their dignity intact, by winning just one out of three games against established opposition.  It’ll be very disappointing, and we know this squad is capable of better, but it’s one notch above abject humiliation.

by whiffofcordite on August 29, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Declan Kidney, Ireland, RWC11

Posted by whiffofcordite on August 29, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/08/29/irelandwatch-things-are-grim-but-its-not-2007-yet/

Bosh it, kick it, stick it up the jumper, but just don’t run it.

When England beat Australia 35-18 in November it was the most lauded international performance of the year, and not just because it was England. Here was Johnson’s New England! Playing with width and pace!  It was a handsome win, owing much to running with the ball in the players’ actual hands, and a pack notable not so much for their chest measurements as their mobility, with Croft, Lawes and Moody to the fore.  England took their newfound attacking game into the Six Nations and easily disposed of Wales and Italy, and if they spluttered a bit through the second half of the campaign, they topped the log nonetheless.

But now, on the eve of the World Cup, all the talk in Camp England is of reverting  to what Martin Johnson describes as ‘cup rugby’ (translation: bosh and boot) and even flying wing Chris Ashton has said that England will ‘kick the leather off the ball if they have to’. Sounds terrific. The squad, loaded with five props, 17 forwards, and not a sniff of an openside flanker or a creative midfielder, is geared towards playing only one way.  And it seems Jonny Wilkinson is set to displace Flood at 10, a surefire sign that scores will be racked up in multiples of three.

So, what was the point in developing the fast-paced game that dismantled Australia and won England their first Six Nations since 2003, only to revert when it most matters to the old dull England that gave us such thrilling encounters as drawing 15-15 with Scotland?  Is this the shrewd thinking of a World Cup winner who knows how to navigate his way through knockout rugby?  Or has Jonno simply bottled it?  We suspect it’s the latter.  Perhaps Jonno’s thighs are moistening as the impending tournament stirs memories of his 2003 triumph, which was won with, shall we say, a less than exciting brand of rugger.  But that England pack was littered with world class players – the current one is nowhere near as good.  Looking at their group opposition – namely Scotland and Argentina – it looks like the best way for England to beat them is to put a bit of pace and width on it.  Why do these two dogged but uninspiring sides the favour of dragging yourself down to their level?
It’s enough to make us revisit our forecast that England will make a semi-final.  Perhaps this will be the year France, who are looking good, and will be happy to play it either way, finally get on top of them.
by whiffofcordite on August 26, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in England, Martin Johnson, RWC11

Posted by whiffofcordite on August 26, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/08/26/bosh-it-kick-it-stick-it-up-the-jumper-but-just-dont-run-it/

World Cup Preview: Samoa

Group D Opposition: South Africa, Wales, Fiji, Namibia

Pedigree: Samoa (as Western Samoa) were the first of the so-called Tier 2 nations to shock a big gun – beating Wales in 1991. Thay have a proud record, making 2 quarter-finals and one quarter-final play-off (in 1999, the stage where Ireland tried a 14 man lineout against Argentina). Recent editions haven’t been as happy – 2007 was their worst tournament to date, with only one win – and they finished as the lowest ranked Pacific team.

Players to watch: The entire team bristles with power, pace and no little footballing skills. For some reason, players who spend their Premiership careers aiming for contact become skilled steppers in their national shirt. like Ooooooooohh Seilala Mapasua – you won’t see pointless knock-ons like you do in Reading. Ooooooooohh Alesana Tuilagi made the WoC HEC Team of the Year, and deservedly so – he gave the Leinster defence more problems that any other player, except (bizarrely) Ooooooooohh James Downey. The era of Pacific packs being shunted around the place are long gone – formidable technicians who love the set piece have emerged, the best of which is Toulouse man-mountain and Iskanders fan Ooooooooohh Census Johnston.

Good tournament: With their RWC record against Wales (P2 W2), a quarter-final is the expectation in Samoa. If they get there, giving Australia a game is required.

Bad tournament: Not getting out of the group – it’s going to be doggedly competitive, but expectations have been raised by recent results.

Prospects: Samoa are a proud rugby nation, and bring real personality and charm to the tournament. The innate physical strength and handling skills of the Samoans have been honed at Sevens level, and for a country with less people than Cork, they punch way above their weight.

The virtual wipeout in 2007 was a huge disappointment in Samoa, and being usurped by Fiji and Tonga even more so, especially given the quality of the squad. Post-2009, the IRB formally included Pacific teams in the international schedule, giving the islands a chance to re-connect with players in Europe, and build between tournaments. In Samoa’s case, this seemed to herald the development of a low-risk percentage game utterly different to tradition.

The tours to the Northern Hemisphere in 2009 and 2010 featured grinding defeats to Ireland, England, Scotland & Wales without the pyrotechnics and running from everywhere expected. A slight suspicion Samoa were developing a backbone of steel was confirmed in Sydney last month, when Australia were downed 32-23 in a game Samoa dominated, both at the breakdown and in line breaks – Matt Giteau certainly won’t forget it in a while, given he has been cast aside as a result.

The draw for this tournament is a little tricky for Samoa – while Wales haven’t beaten them in World Cups, South Africa have beaten them by 50 points in the last two editions, and Fiji have won 5 of the last 7 against Samoa, dating back to 2005. The team have had more time in camp than any previous tournament, and should show well, but the win over the Wallabies may have done more harm than good to their aspirations in New Zealand.

Verdict: They won’t get near the Boks, so it’s going to come down to a three team mini-league with Wales and Fiji. One win is probable, but not two – they are likely to be squeezed out in the group stage for the third tournament running, although they will certainly light it up, and might even make a tackle below the shoulders.

by whiffofcordite on August 25, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Alesana Tuilagi, Census Johnston, RWC11, Samoa, Seilala Mapasua

Posted by whiffofcordite on August 25, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/08/25/world-cup-preview-samoa/

World Cup Preview: Wales

Group D Opposition: South Africa, Fiji, Samoa, Namibia

Pedigree: A mixed bag as you might expect.  Semi-finalists in 1987 (they won the third place playoff against Australia) and quarter finalists in 1999 and 2003, when they gave England a real scare before finally succumbing to the eventual champions. On the flipside, in 1991, 1995 and 2007 they failed to get out of their group. A habit of wayward, unfocused performances into the hands of Pacific Island nations has gotten them into trouble before…
Players to watch: A decent team is taking shape: George North looks like he could set the tournament alight, while Wales look like the only Six Nations team bringing a dedicated breakdown forward in Sam Warburton. In what could be an inspired move, Gatty has made the brilliant 22-year old his captain. Alongside him, there will be hope that Dragons’ afro’d Toby Felatau can be the dynamic ball carrying No.8 they have long required. Key to the whole operation is James Hook – he is wonderfully talented, but continues to be shunted around the backline without a set position. Can they finally get the bet out of him? 

Good tournament: Wales are in a pig of a group, and if they get out of it that will be considered good enough.

Bad tournament: Fail to get out of the group and Wazza will have issues.

Prospects: Not four weeks ago, things looked desperately grim: Wales were lucky to draw with Fiji in the autumn, were mediocre in the Six Nations and all their best players seemed to be either injured or developing a penchant for late night brawling (something which applied to the coaching staff as well).  We were all set to predict yet another Pacific Island-induced early exit for the Valleysmen. 

But things are looking up.  There still appears to be some sort of injury jinx hanging over the squad (Stoddart, Rees and Henson are out with long term injuries and Gethin Jenkins is likely to travel even though he may not play a part until the latter stages), but several long-term absentees are back in harness.  Lee Byrne is available, Adam Jones, so important to the Welsh scrum, made his comebck successfully, and Jamie Roberts and Lee 0.5p are back too.

Results have been good. Wales were competitive in Twickenham, won the reverse fixture in spite of being dominated in terms of territory and possesion, and toughed it out against a physical Argentina side. If Wales can get James Hook at his best and put him centre stage, they can surprise a few people this autumn.

The one worry is that the teams they have played so far are, shall we say, predictable, in their attacking patterns. Which is most definitely something you could not say about Samoa or Fiji. How the Welsh blitz defence will cope with hard and varied lines and runners on the shoulder is anyone’s guess. The likelihood is they won’t look half as comfortable against the Pacific teams, but can potentially score more as well.

Here’s where the setup of the team will come in – where is Jamie Roberts going to play, and can he free his hands? Can Lee Byrne discover his 2008 form? And will Hook be given charge of the team? It’s quite easy to see a scenario where the management team go with the certainty of Stephen Jones against Samoa after a ropey Hook showing against the Boks – this ia the nightmare scenario as its Hook’s quick mind, hands and feet which unlock the physical Pacific defences.

Verdict: Given Wales’ history, the draw could scarcely have been more unkind, with both Fiji and Samoa potential banana skins.  They effectively have three test level games, and all will be hugely physical, not a traditional Welsh strength. It’s not inconceivable that they could come a cropper – they struggled badly against Fiji this season, and Samoa recently toppled Australia in a remarkable game. Only as little as a fortnight ago we were leaning towards Samoa, but given Wales’ momentum, they should be able to get out of the pool, to reach a quarter final where Australia will surely beat them.

by whiffofcordite on August 24, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Adam Jones, George North, James Hook, RWC11, Sam Warburton, Wales, Warren Gatland

Posted by whiffofcordite on August 24, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/08/24/world-cup-preview-wales/

Kidney Shows Capacity for Surprise

We did not see it coming.  Tomás O’Leary, the blue-eyed boy, coached by Uncle Deccie since he was a schoolboy, given every chance – every chance – to play himself into any kind of form, is not going to the World Cup. Nor is fellow 2009 Grand Slammer and test Lion Luke Fitzgerald. The perils of trying to second guess Deccie are there for all to see. Just when you think you have him read, he pulls a huge surprise out of the bag, and backs it up with impenetrable nonsense at the press conference.

First of all, credit where it’s due. They are two seismic calls, and both are correct.  Tomás O’Leary played like a broken footballer on Sturday, to the point where he was simply a liability.  He needs to go back to Munster and start again from scratch – you find form against the Dragons and Glasgow’s of this world, not against France. In his place comes Conor Murray, a superb ball player who can travel, not just as back up, but as Ireland’s premier 9 – the tournament is now his oyster.

Luke Fitzgerald’s situation is more complicated.  He showed some sparkle in the warm up games, not least with two dashing breaks against France (he certainly outplayed Keith Earls). But dedicated full-back cover for Rob Kearney is essential, so Murphy simply had to go – although in a remarkable twist, he is only going due to this (we almost cried ourselves seeing his face). Fergus McFadden also merits his place on the plane, even if we didn’t see much of him over the last few weeks. He provides invaluable cover at centre as well as on the wing. Plus, you know what you’ll get from him, something that cannot be said for Fitzgerald in his current state. Then there’s Trimble, who is on fire. Luke just got squeezed out, and Earls may have been closer to the chop than anyone ever thought. Lets leave it at this – all of the backs on the plane have had better seasons than Luke, so on that basis, he deserves to be at home.

Elsewhere, Buckle edged out Hayes in the cripple-fight for the chance to get shunted around by the Russian pack, and Leamy and Ryan, as expected, swelled the ranks of touring blindsides, now a regular feature of Irish World Cups. We must accept that Jennings didn’t do enough when given his chance, and although McLaughlin deserved a better shot, he would not rectify the imbalance of the squad. Ryan’s selection is as a 4/6, which becomes interesting/superfluous when one reads of Fez training in the second row (and by Lord, how we need power there).

We are of the opinion that the three loss streak has played a part in this. Ireland sleepwalked through 50 minutes on Saturday, and it’s entirely possible Deccie’s intention is, at least to some extent, to light a fire under the players and jolt them into action. He’s certainly done that to us anyway – even if we predicted it. Kind of.

Anyway, hats off to the 30 going – your names are in lights below.  Fush and chups all round (2 fush for Mushy).

Ireland Rugby World Cup Squad 2011

Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster)
Isaac Boss (Terenure College/Leinster)
Tommy Bowe (Ospreys)
Tony Buckley (Sale Sharks)
Tom Court (Malone/Ulster)
Sean Cronin (Leinster)
Leo Cullen (Blackrock College/Leinster)
Gordon D’Arcy (Lansdowne/Leinster)
Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster)
Stephen Ferris (Dungannon/Ulster)
Jerry Flannery (Shannon/Munster)
Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)
Jamie Heaslip (Naas/Leinster)
Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster)
Denis Leamy (Cork Constitution/Munster)
Fergus McFadden (Old Belvedere/Leinster)
Geordan Murphy (Leicester Tigers)
Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)
Sean O’Brien (Clontarf/Leinster)
Donncha O’Callaghan (Cork Constitution/Munster)
Paul O’Connell (Young Munster/Munster)
Brian O’Driscoll (UCD/Leinster) Captain
Ronan O’Gara (Cork Constitution/Munster)
Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster)
Mike Ross (Clontarf/Leinster)
Donnacha Ryan (Shannon/Munster)
Jonathan Sexton (St. Mary’s College/Leinster)
Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster)
Paddy Wallace (Ballymena/Ulster)
David Wallace (Garryowen/Munster)

by whiffofcordite on August 22, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Conor Murray, Deccie Kidney, Denis Leamy, Donnacha Ryan, Fergus McFadden, Geordan Murphy, Ireland, Luke Fitzgerald, RWC11, Tomas O'Leary

Posted by whiffofcordite on August 22, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/08/22/kidney-shows-capacity-for-surprise/

World Cup: Irelandwatch Episode 4

Geordan Murphy tweeted on wednesday night that ‘the obese lady was opening up her vocal chords’.  It didn’t take a genius to read between the lines.  Felix Jones had been given the nod for the France game, Murphy was left to tog out against Connacht, putting Jones in the box seat for the World Cup.  Geordan is of the age profile where, if he doesn’t make the World Cup, he is likely to retire.  Last night’s try-scoring  performance is likely to be his last in green.

The same, only more so, goes for John Hayes.  It looks as if the Irish management are willing Buckley to be the player they believe he can be, and are giving him every chance to show something – anything! – to get him on the plane.  Hayes, unlike Murphy, is incapable of the sort of eye-catching performance that would demand he be picked – indeed the scrum was dire last night, and it’s increasingly a case of ‘who is the least terrible’.  In one sense though you can sympathise with Deccie – Hayes can’t produce any more, at least Mushy might.  If the Bruff man doesn’t make the cut, the game against Connacht is likely to be his last ever game of senior rugby.  In many ways it’s a fittingly fanfare-free way for him to bow out. 

Wednesday’s team sheets gave us – at last – an insight into Deccie’s thinking.  Indeed, it all but named his squad.  For the likes of Jennings, McLaughlin and Fergus McFadden, it effectively shut the door on their World Cup chances (injuries notwithstanding).  Donncha Ryan appears all but certain to go.  It’s a remarkable call – Ryan has just a single Heineken Cup start to his name, and it was one in which he singularly failed to impress (he was immediately dropped for Mick O’Driscoll).  Similarly, Leamy is nailed on in spite of a wild, indisciplined season just gone.  Meanwhile, Kevin McLaughlin has barely been given a chance to stake a claim.  It looked curtains for Jennings too, but Wally’s injury might give him an unexpected chance to impress.  It is probably too late for him, but let’s hope he can at least give Deccie something to think about.

At scrum half, Conor Murray was rewarded for his confident French cameo with 30 minutes against Connacht and is now odds against – Deccie has perhaps decided Boss’s experience is what is required, in spite of never fancying him before. Curious.

France beckons tomorrow, and this time there can be few positives if Ireland lose.  After two defeats, Ireland need to beat a mixed France team (they’re never the same without Dusatoir) to build confidence.  Oh, and some meet and greet with the opposition’s whitewash wouldn’t go amiss either.

by whiffofcordite on August 19, 2011  •  Permalink
Posted in Declan Kidney, Donncha Ryan, Geordan Murphy, Ireland, RWC11, Shane Jennings

Posted by whiffofcordite on August 19, 2011

https://whiffofcordite.com/2011/08/19/world-cup-irelandwatch-episode-4/

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