Joe Schmidt’s reign as Ireland coach properly kicks off on Saturday with a game against Samoa.  It’s the first of three tests in what is a daunting series.  Even determining what constitutes a passing grade for the series is hard work.  Ireland should beat Samoa.  Yes, Samoa are a much improved team these days, and yes, they’re even ranked higher than Ireland in the tabes, but with home advantage and better preparations, even if it’s a struggle Ireland start that game as favourites.  Lose that one and it’s a bad start.

Of course the opposite is true in the case of New Zealand.  Ireland have a habit of raising their game against the BNZers, but never win.  Ever.  Last time they came to Dublin, Ireland produced one of their better games under Kidney and only lost by 20.  The Kiwis are on a different planet right now (well, it is almost exactly halfway between world cups, so they’re bound to be coming to a peak) and any sort of performance against them will count as a positive.

But what about Australia?  They look more or less hopeless.  Awful against the Lions, weak-willed for much of the Rugby Championship, but there was that seven-try purging of Argentina and game Bledisloe Cup game to suggest that they could still have the goods to swat away a mid-pack team like Ireland.  But then they reverted to mush against England and in the process lost to a very inexperienced test side.  Momentum is probably the keyword here.  If Ireland can get off to a good start against Samoa, then expectations will build and the public will begin to feel we can take the Wobs.  Play poorly against Samoa, though, and we’ll start to get that sinking feeling.

We’re going to be optimistic, though.  The players should get a lift from the new coach coming in, and we have enough faith in Schmidt as a coach to believe he can deliver two wins in his first two games.  We think the Samoa game will be tight, and possibly hard to watch, but this Australia team is there for the taking, with the caveat that if we give Quade Cooper enough ball, he will hurt us.  Ireland’s injury troubles aren’t that dreadful.  Zebo and Earls are a loss, but they can put out their preferred front and back rows (mostly – but Fez ain’t gonna be back any time soon).  For sure, they need O’Connell and Sexton starting, and at their best, but neither is even close to ruled out yet.

Almost more important is the performance level.  With that in mind, on Against the Head on Monday night, a rare thing happened.  Rare for RTE anyway.  The panel provided some insightful, technical analysis.  For those used to the bluster of George Hook, and the subsequent requirement for everyone else to get dragged down to his level, listening to Eddie O’Sullivan – ever a man with an eye for detail, whatever you make of him – explain Schmidt’s predilection for the two-man ruck and what it means for the team was a breath of fresh air.  Few committed to the ruck means lots of runners and options out wide and in midfield, which is how Leinster repeatedly scythed opposition defences open.  But of course, it requires that said two individuals have to absolutely obliterate the ruck to ensure quick ball.  Fail to remove a David Pocock type jackalling over the ball and the rest of the chaps are standing in line waiting for the ball, and can’t get there before it’s too late.  Of course!  RTE tend to shy away from this sort of thing, obviously afraid it’s too technical for their audience, but the opposite is in fact the case.  Eddie made it crystal clear what the implications of putting two in the ruck are, and suddenly something that lots of people may not notice, or take for granted, becomes something to keep an eye on in the upcoming games.  Go Eddie.  And step forward habitual ruck-smashers Rory Best, Paul O’Connell and Jamie Heaslip for key roles in this department this November.

We’re all familiar by now with the aerial image of Ireland against New Zealand when there were multiple Irish forwards, and a back, and their fly-half ruck inspecting when there was not even one Kiwi in the picture.  It showcased a confused, tactically inept team.  We’re expecting different things from Schmidt’s Ireland – tactical cohesion and a playing style the players will enjoy, and profit from.

After the horrendous year Ireland have had so far, we’ll take it. If it’s good enough to beat Samoa, and at least make Australia win the game, that’s about par. If we can beat Australia, it will be a great platform to take into a Six Nations which looks pretty open. Three home wins there is currently baseline (oh, how the mighty have fallen) but that is where we have found ourselves.

In terms of personnel, Ireland look well able to play Schmidt’s high-tempo offloading game – the likes of O’Mahony, Jackson, Bowe and Murray should be comfortable with it, and we already know the Blue Meanies can do it. Following Ireland has been a frustrating experience in recent years, and playing for them hasn’t seemed to be much more fun – turn that around, get the new stadium finally rocking, win some games playing good rugger, and maybe even unite the fan base. No pressure Joe!