Were you one of the people questioning why Tom Croft made the Lions selection?  Check the tape of this weekend’s semi-final against Halrequins and you’ll see why.  Dude is as fast as lightning.

Gatland made his fair share of daft selections in his Lions squad, but none of them were in the backrow, where he has stacked his deck perfectly.  The watchword here is ‘variety’, because he has got players tailored to whatever game he wants to play.  Tackle the Aussies to a standstill?  Get Lydiate on the pitch.  Run at their forwards to soften them up.  Sean O’Brien is starting.  The ground is super-hard and dry and we’re going to put some width on it?  Dial +44-YEOMAN and get Tom Croft out there.

Croft tends to take his fair share of flak, and we haven’t always been complimentary of him on these pages.  He can appear to be a luxury player, a showpony who can go large tranches of a match without doing anything, looking to make flashy breaks but unwilling to do the hard, unshowy stuff.  The debate is not that dissimilar to that which rages over our own Peter O’Mahony, a similarly athletic presence who can make big plays in wide channels, but often requires other back row members to do a share of grunt work.  Croft shipped a lot of the blame for an anonymous performance against Wales in this year’s Six Nations, when the Welsh backrow completely dominated both he and Robshaw.

All of which is fair enough, but the point is that there is room in the touring party for a player with Croft’s unique set of skills (remember that he augments his pacy running with outstanding lineout ability) and athleticism.  Besides, the dry Antipodean tracks will suit him far better than the roly-poly sponges that the Six Nations was played upon, and while the rest of the squad are battling fatigue after an exhauting season, Croft is fresh as a daisy and just coming into his best form.  The idea that Tom Wood or Chris Robshaw would be selected ahead of this fellow is simply ridiculous.  In a world of identikit six-and-a-half-wearing-twelve-carries-for-fourteen-metres-gaining workhorse drones, he is a throroughbred racehorse.

The sickening sight of Luke Marshall being removed from the field in Ulster’s game against Saracens with a suspected concussion was most sobering – a young man at the beginning of his career and full of promise had suffered a third concussion in four weeks, across three consecutive games. What were the long-term implications for his health?

Without conflating the two events, when former Pittsburgh Steeler Mike Webster died at the age of 50 in 2002, the autopsy revealed his brain had been damaged a protein called tau, most commonly found in Alzheimers patients. Webster hadn’t got Alzheimers however, he had chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), a degenerative brain disease caused by repeated head trauma.

The presence of the tau protein cannot be confirmed without cutting someone’s head open, so its usefulness as a diagnostic tool is limited. However, early symptoms of CTE are memory loss, confusion, impaired judgment, poor impulse control, aggression, depression, and progressive dementia. Boston University Center for the Study of Traumatic Encephalopathy posthumously identified CTE in 34 of 35 former NFL players.

So it’s clearly an issue in the NFL – should rugby be concerned? You would think so anyway – the IRB states in no uncertain terms in its concussion guidelines that CONCUSSION MUST BE TAKEN EXTREMELY SERIOUSLY (in capitals).

We aren’t medical professionals (or lawyers) so we won’t be opining on how seriously it is taken, but we will share some of the practices in both sports used to identify and report concussions.

We think the sports are comparable, both are tremendously physical and aggression is ingrained. Helmet to helmet hits are allowed in certain circumstances in NFL, but head-to-head are not in rugby, but NFL players wear more protection. A South African survey conducted in 2008 found similar concussion rates across the two sports – we haven’t found a comparable survey since then, but it’s fair to say rugby has got more physical since then, as has, to be fair, the urgency of concussion issues at the IRB.

The NFL is better than rugby for statistics – PBS tracked reported concussive or head injuries by NFL teams, and noted 170 for the year, across 256 regular season and 11 playoff games. We could not find a similar list for rugby players.

The NFL numbers are based upon injuries reported by the teams, and it is suspected it is not an exhaustive list. For example, last season, Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson left the field following an (illegal) helmet-to-helmet hit against the Minnesota Vikings – he underwent sideline concussion tests and returned to the field. Johnson was not listed on the Lions injury list, but was quoted as saying “Yeah, he knocked me good. You could tell. It was obvious”. A month later, Johnson and the Lions issued a joint statement in which the player retracted his claims about being concussed and claims he mis-spoke. Johnson is not on the PBS list.

Now, of course, we can’t blame teams completely for this – players have admitted that they will hide symptoms to continue playing, and it’s hard not to understand why – can you imagine Brian O’Driscoll leaving the field under any circumstances whatsoever? Remember the England game in the Grand Slam year, and that huge hit from Felon Armitage?

In the NFL, players are assessed using the SCAT-2 sporting head trauma protocol. This is a series of tests, physical and cognitive, for which players are tested, and then are scored by sideline medical professionals, who then compare the score to a baseline – for example the same test done pre-season – then make a judgement about whether the player is fit to continue.

There are some questions surrounding this test:

• The subjectivity element – there is no defined “cut-off”
• The baseline test – is there a possibility this could be gamed?
• The relative contributions of different tests – the ocular test is passed with a 100% score if the player spontaneously opens their eyes, whereas with the balance test it is extremely hard to fake a false pass – but both contribute equally

It should also be noted the SCAT-2 tests usually take 10-15 minutes – that’s a smaller portion of an NFL game due to advertisement breaks, change of possessions, time-outs and simply the nature of the game. In rugby 10-15 minutes is a virtual eternity. There have been suggestions to use alternative tests, such as the King-Devick test, which is used in MMA and boxing and takes only 40 seconds for a non-concussed person – someone with a concussion will struggle with this test and often cannot complete it.

Moving on to rugby, if a player has a suspected concussion or head injury, the IRB protocols are as follows:

• Players suspected of having concussion must be removed from play and must not resume play in the match.
• Players suspected of having concussion must be medically assessed.
• Players suspected of having concussion or diagnosed with concussion must go through a graduated return to play protocol (GRTP).
• Players must receive medical clearance before returning to play.

If a player has any suspected symptoms of concussion – physical, behavioural or cognitive – they are tested using the Pocket SCAT-2 protocols on the field of play – this test need not be carried out by a medical practioner. The pocket SCAT-2 is a series of five questions. If the player is unable to answer any of the five questions, they are then removed from the field of play and subjected to the full SCAT-2 tests, by a qualified medical practioner.

The five questions are as follows:

• At what venue are we today?
• Which half is it now?
• Who scored last in this game?
• Which team did you play last week/game?
• Did your team win the last game?

This is the key difference with NFL – for all the weaknesses of a SCAT test, they are conducted by a medical professional in the event of a suspected brain injury. In rugby, the Pocket SCAT-2 questions are an interim step, not necessarily conducted by a medical practioner, and limited in scope. These questions do have the benefits of not being subjective and having no baseline, but it’s clearly less in-depth than the full SCAT-2 or other tests.

Perhaps this is appropriate, perhaps not – we would love to see the research behind the five pocket questions. But more importantly, we really hope we never see a Mike Webster in rugby, and that Luke Marshall returns a healthy and better player.

Loyal readers,

We would be nothing without the comments and feedback we get – and we appreciate it, we really do.

The comments section of the blog is hugely valued, and is increasingly as much a part of the experience for readers, and us, as the articles themselves.  We get a great standard of debate, people add additional points that we haven’t touched on, and tease out other arguments on the article in question.  Sometimes, believe it or not – I know, it’s crazy – people don’t agree with us and offer counter-points to what we’ve written.  This is all really, really terrific.  The majority of those who use the comment box are highly knowledgable and greaatly enhance the blog and we are hugely grateful to you all.

However, recently, we have got feedback from some of our regulars that the comments board frequently turns off-topic and has often descended into a whiny, trolling tone, even putting some readers off the blog. Again, we appreciate this feedback. We ourselves have noticed an increasing number of spats in the comments section, and people making personal attacks without specific reference to points made in the article.  So we are upping our blog to the next level of WordPress security – that of forcing commentors to include an e-mail address, and each commenter will require our approval. Apologies if it inconveniences anyone, but it’s as much of a hassle for us as it is for you.  Remember that your email address will never be published; only we will see it, not the greater public.

Our email address is whiffofcordite@gmail.com and everyone is welcome to talk to us directly.

Oh, and to address some on-going queries:

• Let’s keep the comments section on-topic and constructive.  Please do not post with wild accusations, with scant reference to the post in question.  We welcome constructive debate, not pot-shots
• If you don’t like what we write, please let us know why, at the address above, but make it constructive please – we do take it on board.  Let’s keep the comments section for the topic in question.  Comments berating others or including personal abuse will simply be deleted from now on.
• If you think what we do here is throw abuse at people online, you should perhaps ask yourself why the mainstream media throw this one out at every opportunity, and also why no blogger (that we know of) has yet called the captain of Ireland “an arrogant, ignorant swaggering windbag” and “an absolute knob”, unlike some prominent print hacks
• Remember, it’s a bit of fun.  We’re passionate about rugby and we know you are too, but before you start hammering the keys violently, take a deep breath and remember we like to keep the tone jovial and irreverent rather than academic and fusty.  Yes, we like to poke fun at the crazy musings of some esteemed chums in the media, but try to take things in the spirit of gentle mockery rather than righteous indignation, which is probably how they were intended.  Unless it’s about Conor Geo…

Thanks as always for reading and let’s keep the rugby debate and discussion going in the comments section in the best possible tone.

Whiff of Cordite

Lethargy for the grand old tournament has been growing in recent years, with the Heineken Cup more colourful, varied, approachable and enjoyable in an increasing number of fans’ eyes.  But this opening weekend blew the cobwebs away.  We had been told by all comers that the refereeing ws going to be positive, punishing those whose influence at the breakdown was negative.  They seemed to get their message across, because the three games were all fantastic, with all teams looking to attack.  It’s early days, but it’s shaping up to be the best Six Nations since 2007, or perhaps even better yet.

Ireland are up and running

It was a hugely commendable performance from Ireland.  Last year, the team sat off Wales and let them dictate the game.  Not this.  Ireland imposed their game plan on Wales.  Given the bizarrely fluctuating performance level of this team over the last three seasons, backing up the Agentina win with another good performance was absolutely critical.  They have now done that.  It creates a sense of building momentum, underlined by the manner win which Murray and Sexton appear to have developed an understanding of how each other plays.  It has taken them some time, but they are such good players, that it has been worth waiting for.  Now they just have to do it again, against England.

Kidney Casts off the Shackles

We were wrong and Kate McEvoy was right.  Deccie nailed his team selection and tactics this week.  O’Mahony utterly vindicated his selection over 50 minutes of barnstorming rugger.  Gilroy’s kicking was loose at times, but he put in some huge hits in defence.  A year ago, you feel Kidney would have played the ‘we know what he can do’ card and picked Earls on the wing, but he took the risk, and was rewarded.  We still have a preference for Luke Fitzgerald in the back-three, but Gilroy ultimately delivered for his coach.  Kidney has been wilfully conservative at times over the last few seasons, but with his contract renewal hinging on the outcome of this series, he has nothing to lose and appears willing to gamble a bit more.

If Rob Howley had got his own selection right, and picked the in-form Jason Tipuric from the start, perhaps things might have been different.  But he didn’t, and it wasn’t.

Ireland have no bench

It took Deccie years to get the hang of the whole ‘bench’ thing, but in the last 24 months he got the knack for it.  Just don’t expect him to use it much this year; because we don’t really have one.  Ireland did have a good bench over the last couple of season, but that was when Reddan was making a strong case for selection and ROG could still influence a test match; neither is the case this year.  Backrow is the only place where Ireland can bring on somebody to change the dynamic of the game, with Henry bringing something different to either of the starting flankers.  O’Callaghan can replace tiring legs late in games, but he’s not going to really alter the balance of a match.  Let’s not even talk about the front row.

The single biggest threat to Ireland’s hopes of winning the championship is fatigue to the likes of Murray, Sexton, Best, Ryan ,Healy and of course Ross, who will all be required to put in 70-80 minute shifts in all five games.  England, by contrast, have a bench stacked with impact men – Danny Care, Courtney Lawes, James Haskell (whatever you make of them).  Dare Kidney revisit his famous squad rotation in Murrayfield or Rome, and rest one or two of his key men should Ireland be closing in on a possible grand slam?  Let’s cross that bridge when if we come to it.

Kidney does have some options to give more oomph to his bench.  Earls hasn’t impressed recently in green (although we wouldn’t write off his hopes of being a test centre just yet), and Fitzgerald is worth considering for the 23 shirt.  Paul Marshall performs the role of impact sub with gusto at Ulster, and is in far better form than Reddan.  There are other options at 10, with Madigan the most enticing, but none have any test rugby experience, and it’s a safe bet that Sexton will accumulate 400 championship minutes this season, injury permitting.

Simon Zebo – the new Ugo Monye?

Yep, that’s  what we thought a year ago.  Joke’s on us!  Last year Zebo looked exciting, scored lots of tries, but was pretty raw.  We questioned whether he had enough football skills to be the real deal, or was he just a straight-line runner in the Ugo Monye mould.  The extent to which he has improved his game over the last year is remarkable, and that flick will feature on highlights reels for years to come.  Thankfully it got the reward it deserved with Church bashing over the line from close quarters. Zebo could/should/will (delete as appropriate) be the poster boy for Irish rugby for years to come, provided those dastardly Frenchies don’t steal him, as they tried to this year.

Forza Italia

What a win!  What a match!  Italy were simply wonderful.  They offloaded, they ran and they had Parisse.  Their fly-half, Lucky Luciano Orquera, played at a level he has probably never attained in his life, and everything came off.  Their ambition was laudable; they played to win the game and not just to keep the score down, as they have so often in the past.  In the 74^th minute, protecting a narrow lead, they won a turnover and guess what? –they counter-attacked again.  They have a chance now to win two or even three matches, but must try and bring the same energy on the road as they do in Rome, which they’ve never really done before, in order to beat Scotland.

The game was brilliantly presided over by Nigel Owens, who communicated clearly and fairly, and with no shortage of his usual wit (‘I could have penalised any of eight of you’, he said at one point).  He looked utterly unflustered throughout, a man clearly enjoying himself in a high-pressure environment.