There was an air of inevitability about Munster’s five-try qualifying haul on Sunday. Not even Munster’s most ardent supporters – heck, not even Frankie Sheahan – would claim there was anything miraculous about it, or hold it up against famous last-round wins against Sale or Gloucester.
Why? Because we’ve become accustomed to the middle tier French rugby clubs capitulating in the latter rounds of the Cup. When Racing gave up a generous lead at home to Saracens the week before, Leinster’s goose was more or less cooked. For some – Leinster fans anyway – it resulted in a slightly unsatisfactory finale to the pool stages. How much more exciting would it have been if Munster really had it put up to them, as Leinster did in Exeter? That’s not to discredit Munster. As discussed in Monday’s post, they had their destiny in their own hands and did what they had to do; they deserve their place in the last eight.
The question is, can anything be done to ensure sides remain competitive to the last? Not really. Sure, you could try to impose fines on teams for putting out weakened sides, but in the days of heavy squad rotation, how do you define first and second choice players? On the face of it, it looks unworkable.
And besides, it’s more a question of attitude than names on a team sheet. Rugby is a game where bodies are put on the line; if one side’s need is greater, they will generally prevail, even if they possess less quality. As an example, Toulon put out a strong line-up for Saturday’s do-or-go-through-anyway game against Montpellier, but it was clear from the moment Freddie Michalak gave a Gallic shrug and allowed the Montpellier centre to canter over the line for their first try, that their hearts weren’t in it. The best that could be achieved would be that if the French are to be given concessions as part of the much-discussed tournament restructure, that they are reminded of their responsibilities to uphold the credibility of the competition.
In defence of the French sides, that they were more consistently competitive this year than in any in recent memory. Clermont and Toulouse will always treat the tournament with respect and Biarritz – although rubbish these days – have a tradition of giving it a go. Toulon, with their mega-squad, have no excuse for not being competitive, and took advantage of an easy pool to amble through to a home quarter-final. It was only Montpellier’s second season in the competition, and while their pool was straightforward, they showed terrific commitment throughout and clearly wanted to make a statement, and qualified deservedly.
The performances of Castres and Racing were also committed for the most part. Castes are notorious for throwing matches on the road, but they won in Glasgow and kept Northampton tryless in Franklin’s Gardens, a result which effectively took the Saints out of the competition. Racing also won in Scotland, beat Munster at home and looked suitably gutted at the end of their hard-fought defeat to Saracens. It was only once they were ruled out that they couldn’t be bothered.
If one thing could be done to improve the tournament, it’s a change to the lopsided seeding system, which counts the previous four years of tournament points to determine each side’s place in the rankings. Four years is too many, and allows the deadwood to hang around for too long. Cardiff were a top seed this year, which seems farcical. They were losing semi-finalists four years ago, when Martyn Williams missed a penalty in a shoot-out against Leicester, but not many of the names that played that day are still on their books. While there is no points system that can account for a loss of players to other clubs, two years’ ranking points appears more appropriate, and if the ranking coefficient included an element of domestic league performance, then all the better.
What has happened to Toulouse? We were watching their opening Top14 game (on the 17th of August! … A whole other debate needed there) and were struck with how … shit … they were.
Toulouse have historically been associated with vibrant rugby, the embodiment of what is good about French rugby – local passion, youth-oriented ambitions, ferocity upfront coupled with inventiveness with ball in hand.
The team they put out consisted of a foreign front row, a backrow and three quarter line with a huge amount of mileage and Pacific bosh merchants off the bench, all piloted by the poor man’s Morné Steyn, Lionel Beauxis. Granted, they won with a late try from Matavanou, but the game itself was an abomination – bad tempered, boring, and essentially boiling down to a penalty contest.
These were/are two of the best four teams in France, and if that is the case, you have got to worry about French rugby. Toulouse won the *puts on Gerry’s French accent* Bouclier de Brennus last season, but the play-off series was woeful – it was a kicking contest which Wilko almost swung for Toulon. The semi-finals and final produced not a single try between them. By contrast, the Aviva Premiership and the much maligned Pro12 produced thrilling finals. Its hard to imagine any French team earning a try-scoring bonus point 6 games in a row, like Leicester did last year – the Top14 deserves much more Oooooooooohh-ppobrium than the Premiership.
In Europe it’s been no great shakes either. Toulouse were beaten by Embra in last season’s HEC quarters (after getting hammered by Gloucester and losing at home to Quins), and only Clermont joined them at that stage. The Amlin turned into a Top14 second tier playoff contest, but the final was another mindless boot contest.
Clermont stand alone as an exciting and vibrant side, and are worth watching, but Toulouse are becoming Toulon with a better PR department. You have to be concerned about the future of French rugby when so many of the top level clubs play such a desperate brand of rugby, so far away from the (admittedly self-professed) traditions of the game in France. Even Toulouse, the self-appointed guardians of le rugby, resort to utter dross. And we haven’t even mentioned the winter months when the grounds turn into puddings and the league turns into a Scrum & Drop Goal Competition. Sigh – perhaps we expect too much!
What it Defined: Ireland’s Grand Slam and unbeaten calendar year in 2009
The State of Play
At the end of 2008, Irish rugby is doing everything it can to move on from their disastrous World Cup. Eddie O’Sullivan resigns in the aftermath of the following Six Nations, and is replaced by another Corkman, Declan Kidney. That’s about all they have in common, though. Where O’Sullivan is technical, dictatorial and a control freak, Kidney is a man manager, an enabler and a delegator. At some expense, he is backed by a world class coaching team: Alan Gaffney, Les Kiss and Gert Smal.
After a summer tour led by interim coach Michael Bradley, on which Ireland play reasonably well, the full scale of Kidney’s task is laid bare in the autumn internationals. Ireland beat Canada in Thomond Park before the main course: New Zealand and Argentina in Croke Park. The atmosphere before the New Zealand game is white-hot, and there’s a feeling that Ireland can do something. After all, both Leinster and Munster are in good form in the Heineken Cup and it’s a good time to face New Zealand. But they never fire a bolt, and New Zealand barely need to get out of third gear to win 22-3. Ireland’s feeble performance is shown up by Munster’s reserves, who bring a second string New Zealand team to the brink in thrilling style the following Wednesday. Ronan O’Gara, watching in the stands, comments that Ireland ‘need to buy into the jersey a bit more’.
The Argentina match is an aberration. It happens to be Ms Ovale’s first time going to an Irish international, and so awful is the game, it is a wonder she has made it back for another since. Argentina lose Hernandez in the warm up, and appear to lose interest in the scoreboard, and choose instead to turn the game into a brawl. The match is played almost entirely between the two 10-metre lines, virtually every ruck is punctuated by fisticuffs, but Ireland grind out a 17-3 victory, eventually conjuring up a decent attack as Tommy Bowe gathers a cross-field kick to score a try. The victory is significant in one sense: Ireland have maintained their second-seeding for the World Cup draw, but other than that there is little to take from the series.
Kidney and his team are taken aback at the lack of confidence in the Irish players, and at the poor atmosphere within the group. Some weeks later, players and management convene at Carton House to try to resolve some issues before the Six Nations. Here, Rob Kearney makes his now famous, possibly overstated, but probably very significant ‘Munster look more united than Ireland’ comments. While it’s hard to gauge just how big a deal it was, the team do appear fractious and cranky with one another on the pitch, and it’s not hard to imagine that factions along a provincial line may have developed within the squad. With Kearney’s comments, it appears the elephant is finally removed from the room and the team can move forward.
A new tactical approach is also devised. By now, many of the Munster forwards (who make up most of the pack) are frustrated with Eddie’s wide-wide gameplan, and would prefer a more attritional approach. Deccie hands the forwards a licence to take on the opposition pack, and resolves to play a more territorial game. He wants the players to play it as they see it, but to try and ensure each phase is played further up the field than the last one. It’s essentially the formula with which he had so much success with Munster. The players leave camp with a sense of a lot of baggage having been removed, and a greater clarity around the gameplan.
The good news is that the Six Nations is in its ‘odd year’, where Ireland face France and England at home. And the schedulers have pitted Ireland against France in the first round.
The Game
While some are convinced that the new broom needs to sweep out the vast majority of Eddie’s Untouchables, Kidney decides to persevere, recognising that these great players have something left in the tank – he tinkers with some of the lineup, but it’s largely the same faces. Flannery starts at hooker, and in the back row, Ferris, having impressed in the autumn is given the No.6 jumper. Paddy Wallace is a surprise pick at 12, albeit as a favourite of Deccie’s from the underage days, and Gordon D’arcy, recently back from a long spell out with a broken arm that wouldn’t reset properly, is able to take a place on the bench. For France, the selection is typically Lievremont. He picks an exceptionally athletic backrow of Ouedraogo, Dusatoir and Harinordoquy, but puts Chabal in the second row and plays Sebastian Tillous-Borde at scrum half, while Parra kicks his heels on the bench.
The 2008-09 season is blighted by the ELVs, but this is one of the few games which rises above the torpor. In short, it’s a cracker. Ireland lose a try early on as Chabal smashes aside the last line of defence, but they rally. After great work by Rob Kearney and Tommy Bowe up the left touchline, Paul O’Connell pops a pass into Jamie Heaslip. The Leinster No.8 gallops into the space, before bamboozling Clement Poitrenaud with a sidestep to get over the line. It’s a classic try from a player who is becoming central under the new coaching regime. Ireland lead 13-10 at half time – the general feeling in the stands is that they’re playing their best in some time, but kicking too much to France’s livewire back three.
The second half performance is outstanding. Off a set piece, Brian O’Driscoll breaks the line and wrong-foots Malzieu to get in under the posts. Minutes later, Gordon D’arcy, off the bench for the bloodied Wallace, wriggles over the line from five metres out. In an iconic image, he is mobbed by his team-mates, thrilled for him after such a long and difficult spell out.
The other memorable image, for WoC anyway, is that of Paul O’Connell hauling Jamie Heaslip – by now the man of the match – up from the ruck, slapping his back and grinning widely, after Jamie has won the match-winning penalty. We are not writing with hindsight when we say that the sight of the Munster captain commending the Leinster tyro so vigorously really made us sit up and take notice. Maybe there was a new hunger, a greater unity of purpose to this Irish team…
The Aftermath
The rest we know. Ireland went on to win the Grand Slam, the nation’s first for 60 years. There’s little need to go back over the details of Bowe’s try, ROG’s drop goal, Paddy Wallace’s hands in the ruck, Stephen Jones’ mercifully just-short penalty again – and we’ll skip the bit where Palla got so nervous before the game that he would let out a little yelp every time the camera cut to the empty Millenium stadium, couldn’t watch England v Scotland and instead had to go and play tennis for an hour to try and take his mind off the match. It’s worth recalling a few details though.
For a start, Ireland never played as well, or as freely, again in the series as they did against France. The stats showed that they passed less and kicked more than any other team. Rob Kearney had looked electric counter-attacking in the previous summer tour, but with the game now dominated by defence and referees allowing the tackler huge leeway around the ruck, he was reduced to catching and kicking. Tomas O’Leary’s game was tailor-made to the ELV-based gameplan. With quick ruck-ball in such short supply it hardly mattered how quickly you passed to the fly-half, who was only going to kick it anyway, so his passing limitations were scarcely exposed, while his physicality around the ruck effectively gave Ireland an extra flanker. After the France game it was a case of shutting up shop and trying to grind out wins. Line breaks were in short supply, Fitzgerald barely touched the football and BOD’s ability from one metre out was Ireland’s best scoring threat.
Kidney’s management was astute from first to last. While we’ve grown to be frustrated by his gnomic utterances over the last three years, when media expectation is building and all anyone wants to do is get the coach to talk up his grand slam hopes in front of a microphone, he’s the man to manage it. One game at a time, not even thinking about it, sure isn’t this why we got into the game – he gave the media absolutely nothing. When Warren Gatland cracked and said the Welsh disliked the Irish players more than any other nation’s, it appeared that Kidney had gained a slight advantage over his opposite number.
His greatest stroke was changing four players for the Scotland game. Probably mindful that some players might be looking a week ahead to the Wales match, he shook up his team for the first time in the championship, dropping four players, some of whom were among his best. Crucially though, he changed only where he knew he had quality reserves, so the team would be losing little. Heaslip, O’Leary, Wallace and Flannery made way for Leamy, Stringer, D’arcy and Best. Heaslip, in particular, was having an outstanding championship, and was not happy about it. As it happened, Leamy got injured early on and Heaslip played most of the game, scoring the winning try, set up by a break from Stringer, who passed with metronomic accuracy. Three of the four – all bar Wallace – were reinstated for the Wales game. It was terrific, proactive management and had the desired effect.
It must also be said that Ireland were lucky. They were lucky that France were having a season of experimentation. Lucky that Danny Care lost his head and that by the time England got themselves to within a point it was too late in the game. Lucky not to be further behind at half time against Scotland. Lucky that Stephen Jones missed a penalty he would expect to score, and lucky that Gavin Henson, traditionally Wales’ kicker for long distance, didn’t insist on kicking it. Lucky that Wales miscalculated and put the ball out on the full so Ireland could set up the winning score. Most of all, though, they were lucky with injuries. While Deccie deserved praise for making the four changes before the Scotland game, it must be recognised that doing so was a luxury. At no time since that game has he felt he could make such changes, and now only really changes players when injury strikes. Effectively, Kidney could put out his preferred XV in every game. These days, to be able to do that five times in a row, is unheard of.
The contrasting legacy of Ireland’s two most recent coaches effectively boils down to a missed restart against France and a late missed penalty by Wales. Fine margins.
Ireland and Kidney’s purple patch didn’t end with beating Wales. They went the calendar year unbeaten, signing off with a distinguished autumn series in which they drew, somewhat fortuitously, with Australia and beat South Africa, piloted by a new fly-half, Jonny Sexton, from a newly resurgent Leinster. It was among the best performances of Kidney’s tenure. Everything was rosy in the garden. It had been a remarkable season. But the game was going to change. The IRB, frustrated with the hideous kick-and-chase monster the game had become, were about to change the “interpretation” of the breakdown law, requiring tacklers to clearly disengage from the tackled player before competing for the ball. It was enough to hand the initiative back to the attacking team. Rugby would become a phase game again, and Ireland would have to adapt or be left behind.
‘Tis a biggie alright. Wales are the Six Nations’ all-or-nothing men. World Cup disaster in 2007? Wales, I’ll stick you down for a large helping. Blazing a trail in 2008 with an outstanding slam? Yes, indeedy. How about mid-table mediocrity for the next three years, Wazza? Ah sure, go on. Following their World Cup success with a Grand Slam would count as an all too rare bit of consistency, and there’s a feeling that this Welsh side is built for a less fleeting spell of greatness.
They certainly have a robustness that 2008′s high-class but flaky geniuses didn’t. If they don’t quite have the silken touch of the likes of Williamses Martyn and Shane or James Hook and Gavin Henson in form they have never looked remotely like repeating, they certainly have power. They haven’t looked as good as they did in the opening week in Dublin over the last couple of games, but they should have enough bosh to get the job done. Oooooooooooooooohhh Wales – who’d have thunk it?
France can be all or nothing themselves, but usually all within the one match. PSA has had a miserable tournament, winning few friends with his Anglo-centric rugby philosophy and fewer still with some poor results. His team look jaded and uninspired, but the squad has been given a shake-up. It’s highly unlikely they’ll win, but a bit of fresh enthusiasm – hopefully from the likes of Ouedraogo and the exciting teenage Clermont full-back Jean Marcel Buttin - might just rouse them from their slumbers.
Verdict: Wales to secure the slam.
The Birdie Putt
Two teams looking to finish ahead of par with a win. Both teams started terribly, but have improved as the show has gone on. The winner will finish second in the log, and can feel pretty good about the tournament, but for the loser it’s a fair-to-middling season if you’re England and a middling-to-poor one if you’re Ireland.
Hopes are for a decent game between the two sides finishing well. England’s gameplan isn’t that different to the side which flunked out of the World Cup. Their carriers still run hard and straight, and Owen’s primary ploy looks to be the inside pass. It’s readable enough stuff, but they have a handful of threats: Ben Morgan (a player we’ve liked for some time) is a fine carrier, Manu Tuilagi will fancy a cut at Ireland’s midfield and Tom Croft, while he isn’t the best 6 in the world by a long shot, can do damage in wide channels. Not all that surprisingly, England have found their confident voice again – it doesn’t take much for these guys to believe their own hype.
If Ireland can hit the rucks and use a similar defensive line to that which we saw in Paris, they should have the class in the backline to win. Expect to see Stephen Ferris smash anything that moves in the middle of the field, while Heaslip and O’Brien will be employed closer to the ruck. And forget the overrated Rhys Priestland: Sexton v Farrell is the shootout for 10 of the series.
Vedict: Ireland to finsh first in the match and second in the tournie.
The Wooden Spoon
Lordy, this could make for grim viewing.
Verdict: Scotland to squeeze out a win. Expect a cagey don’t-lose-it-whatever-you-do approach from both sides.
Another week, another set of bogus predictions from the Whiff of Cordite boys. I only hope all our loyal readers have been going to the bookies to lay exactly what we’ve been forecasting. Wales to cut loose, Ireland to win a tight game and France to beat England. Erm…
Ireland’s attack: now with 40% more penetration
Before the tournament, the one thing we asked – begged! – for was to see Ireland’s attack improve. Credit to Deccie and Kiss; they have delivered. Ireland look a threat with ball in hand now, and the flat, lateral play that characterised Ireland over the last couple of seasons has been largely dispatched – 13 tries in four games, and no fewer than two in any match, tells its own story. It said a lot that even after a nervy, ponderous start, Ireland were willing to go to the corner with an early penalty, and take the game to the Scots. It’s been a collective effort, but two players who deserve particular credit are Rob Kearney and Keith Earls. Kearney’s counter-attacking has been a joy to watch, and Keith Earls has shown himself to be up to the job at 13.
Wales slam-in-waiting has echoes of Ireland in 2009
Wales have effectively won the Championship, barring a ridiculous set of results next week. Their journey to the Grand Slam has been reminiscent of Ireland in 2009 – opening with an impressive flourish in the first match, before regressing a little with every game. Ireland relied on an accurate kicking game, while Wales have fallen back on their power. It’s almost as if they’ve bought into the press’ fawning over the size of their backline. No side that wins a Six Nations deserves to be sniffily treated, and less so one that wins a Grand Slam, as Wales surely will. They are the best selected, best coached, and it would appear, fittest, team in the competition, but this is not a vintage championship. Ireland, and indeed England, will not see them as especially superior, and are entitled to have some regrets.
Just how awesome is Richie Gray?
Very is the answer. Watching Scotland on Saturday was a little bit like watching Italy in recent times, when one player is just so much better than all his team-mates. Gray was physically and metaphorically head and shoulders above anyone else in a navy shirt, and indeed many in green. His try was a thing of beauty – Bob Kearney is getting some stick for buying Gray’s dummy, but Gray combined the dummy with a subtle change of angle and pace, and it was that, as much as anything, which did for Kearney. At times you felt he should step in at 10 to give Wee Greig a break – he most probably has the skills for it.
Gallic shrugs for all
It’s pretty clear France aren’t very engaged in this tournament. We thought they would stroll it, so mea culpas all round, but they just don’t seem too bothered. When they look like they might be embarrassing themselves, they step it up for a while (last quarter vs. Scotland, third quarter vs. Ireland, last 10 minutes vs. England), but generally aren’t too concerned. Why might this be? Well, PSA was roundly congratulated for his continuity, contrasting with Lievremont’s selections, but that has a flip side. Firstly, they were all physically and emotionally drained after the RWC. Secondly, the team’s key players are from Toulouse, Clermont and Biarritz - three teams with key months ahead, for differing reasons.
The rumour mill is already rife that Yachvili (and the FFR) would prefer to be with Biarritz to save them from relegation rather than devote time to Les Bleus. At the other end, Clermont are aiming for a unique double – and expect to see the Aurelien Rougerie we are used to and not the ponderous and disinterested passenger of the 6N when Les Jaunards pitch up in Lahndan in April. It’s not that the national jersey means nothing, it’s that these men can only give so much; and being a Basque, Catalan or Auvergnat is equally as important as being French.
And by the by, for a nation which professes to be in love with the drop goal, they’ve been utterly useless at them in this competition.
Lancaster’s investment in youth has paid off
England might have looked desperate at times, but they have done what they have needed to do, and, but for Mike Brown’s inability to fix a man, would be playing for the Championship this weekend. Lancaster tore up the tired old script and gave youth its head, and he has been rewarded. England are improving with every game, and it’s down to Owen Farrell (20), Manu Tuilagi (20), Ben Morgan (23), Alex Corbisiero (23), Chris Robshaw (23) and Brad Barritt (25). The youngsters are beginning to look comfortable in their surroundings, and England look in decent shape all of a sudden.
The test will of course come in adversity. Johnno tore up a pretty successful playbook after getting hockeyed by Ireland last year, and the result was a farcical RWC. England have their nemesis of recent times, a rejuvenated Ireland, up next, then a three test tour of South Africa at the end of a draining season. If their performances hold up, they don’t ship any heavy beatings, and they get two wins (or one if it comes in SA) from those four, England will have come through a very tough time to get to a pretty good place.
A non-vintage Six Nations campaign is heading for a straightforward blitz-tournmanent style finale. In the last week, Wales and France will meet to decide the championship winners (The Cup). England and Ireland will play for the Plate, or third place, and Italy and Scotland will tough it out for the Bowl (or to avoid the wooden spoon).
The Cup
Some of the mythology around the enormous Welsh backline was exposed this weekend. Mike Phillips got overly involved in a fight with the English backrow, and Wales never looked like getting around England, so they just kept trying to go through them. Getting into a boshfest with the Kings of Bosh is a risky game, and Wales were in a tight spot for much of the afternoon. In the end they had just enough class to win out, with one of their smaller backs, reserve centre Scott Williams (weighing in at a puny 97kgs) coming up with a dash of brilliance to win it. The Triple Crown is in the bag, and they are in a good position to deliver the slam, with France coming to Cardiff.
Here in Ireland we love nothing more than fawning over the French. We’re spellbound by their pristine blue shirts, intimidated by their scrummaging power, awestruck by their handling skills, and swooning over Morgan Parra’s classic good looks. But for all their Gallic genius, they rarely play all that well. Truth is, they’re masters of just doing enough (unless they are playing New Zealand). Not much has really changed under the new coach. Sure, the selection is consistent, but the mentality is harder to shift. France sleepwalked through the first 25 minutes here, and while their two tries were brilliant, there was no sustained greatness. Trouble is, they are usually good for one outstanding performance a series. One of Ireland, England or Wales will get it.
The Plate
England: played three, two tries, both chargedowns. They’ve Strettle, Ashton and Foden in the back three, but they can’t service them with three midfielders with the distribution skills of combine harvesters. Brad Barritt fought gamely again, and he’s not a bad player, but the lines of attack are too predictable. For all that they probably scored a good try at the death, and after last week’s bottling exploits for his club, we’d all have loved to see the theatre of the last-kick wide conversion from Toby Flood to save a draw. Two players who won’t enjoy looking at the tape this morning are Courtney Lawes, whose upright carrying style led directly to the Welsh try, and Mike Brown, who failed to fix his man with the non-try scoring pass to Strettle, and gave him an awful lot to do, when a stroll in was possible.
Declan Kidney is starting to get the hang of this newfangled ‘bench’ thing that other people keep banging on about it. We’d heard of it ourselves, but weren’t quite sure what it was. Turns out you can replace players during the game, sometimes even improving the side by bringing off a guy who’s tiring or not playing great and putting another player in his position. Who knew? All the talk this week will be that Ryan and Reddan should be starting in Paris (they won’t). Both players are getting a raw deal. Ryan is clearly the superior player at 4 to O’Callaghan, and is probably among Ireland’s best performers in the series so far, and it appears Reddan has never really earned the trust of the management. He started their two best performances last year, and was influential in both, but found himself overlooked ever since. Dropping a young player like Murray after two poor performances is not an easy call, but you feel that if Ireland are to have any – any! – chance of winning, Reddan needs to play.
The Bowl
Hard times for Scotland, who have improved out of sight this year, without getting the results to show for it. Their handling and offloading was terrific yesterday. Management are culpable for some outrageously bad team selections. How was it that Hogg, Laidlaw and Blair had to wait until the third game in the series to take to the pitch together? Still, credit needs to go to them for making the changes. Scotland look like a team who might just win a few … if they can just win one.
It’s proving a difficult season for Italy, who haven’t really improved as much as people are letting on. They were much more competitive last year, when they should have beaten Ireland and Wales, and toppled France. The wooden spoon beckons methinks, as Scotland look to have too much for them – thouh they can be a different proposition in Rome.
It’s not been a classic series so far by any means, which had us wondering when there last was a classic Six Nations. Wales’ and Ireland’s grand slams in 2008 and 2009 were up against mediocre post-World Cup fields (France were off experimenting). The best in recent times is probably 2007′s tournament, when strong France and Ireland sides went toe to toe, with France securing the Championship with the last play of the game against Scotland. It’s been a while…
After all the drama surrounding team selections, squad announcements and even refereeing appointments, the small matter of the actual games of Six Nations rugby take place this weekend. We’re looking forward to it. Now for the bit where we put ourselves in the firing line and predict what will happen.
Scotland v England
We hummed and we hawed. We saw the England squad and thought they couldn’t possibly win. Then we saw the Scotland team, with Dan Parks at 10, and thought they couldn’t possibly win. Then we cried for a bit thinking about the two hours of our lives we’d each be giving up to watch the blasted game. Then, finally, we saw the England team and went back to thinking they wouldn’t win.
This one’s all about the New England – new captain, new players, new attitude, new interim coach, new playing style. The trouble is none of it looks all that great. Mouritz Botha, Geoff Parling and Phil Dowson are adequate Boshiership journeymen rather than exciting new talents, while England appear to be looking to the least creative of the good sides in the country for their midfield (10 – 13 all Sarries!). Chris Robshaw captains the team, and he’s a good player, but looks a bit knackered and will be out of position on the openside.
Verdict: We’re going for Scotland because we just can’t see how England will be able to deliver the gameplan they’re talking about. Lancaster says they’re looking to play at a high tempo, but high tempo requires quick ball, and just who is going to serve that up? The Scottish back row will be licking their chops at the lightweight trio England have served up - Scotland to shade a dour affair.
France v Italy
France will be looking to hit the ground running and have every chance of doing so. They seem to have the right team on the pitch, something they haven’t had for some time. Louis Picamoles keeps out Harinordoquy in what looks a position of real strength (Fulgence Ouedraogo can’t even make the 22), while Trinh-Duc is welcomed back to the starting line-up, with Beauxis a handy reserve. All eyes will be on Clermont’s razor-sharp Wesley Fofana, who looks like a potential star of the tournament.
It should all be too much for Italy. The Italians were poor in the World Cup, and never looked like troubling Ireland or Australia. They just don’t travel. Their home games, now in the Stadio Olimpico, will be worth watching and they may try to keep some of their powder dry for England’s arrival there next week.
Verdict: this one is set up for France to rack up some points; we expect them to win by a couple of scores.
Ireland v Wales
Obviously, this is the most interesting game from our perspective. Even before the Welsh squad started dropping like flies, we fancied that this was a game Ireland were targetting – the noises from the squad echo those we heard prior to England in March and Australia in October. Now, with the Welsh down several front-liners, Ireland will be confident as well as motivated.
We foresee an urgent and effective Ireland performance with some tries thrown in. Wales will play a smart game and target our weaknesses (second row in the loose and Earls’ defence at 13) but it won’t be enough. Ireland really want this one, and nearly all the squad go in brimful of confidence after the HEC group stages – stark contrast to Wales.
Verdict: We don’t think Ireland will blow Wales away early like they did to England, but they will have enough. This could be quite high-scoring – the Welsh backs are more than useful – 30-20 or something. Ireland by more than a score
Gerry Thornley’s been warming to his theme of IRFU-bashing lately – he’s been awoken from his autopilot by the new NIE laws and is using his weekly column as a platform from which to berate the [Insert number Here] Old Farts. Which we approve. And, of course, he’s only too delighted to see three Irish provinces in the HEC quarter finals. After all, who isn’t?
But the final paragraph in today’s piece set off the alarm bells:
But, for all its wealth, foreign imports and benefactors, the Top 14 remains, a la the Premier League in England, something of a circus act which works against its national team. Nor do they have the same sense of culture and identity between fans and players who truly represent their regions.
What’s that Gerry? The French club sides don’t have a sense of culture and identity between fans and players? Really? Tell that to the Clermont Auvergne fans whose ground is the most intimidating in Europe, and make their mark on every city to which they travel. Or the Toulousains who pour into the streets donned in rouge-et-noir whenever they land silverware. Anyone who was there two years ago for the Leinster-Clermont quarter final will regard it as the greatest atmosphere ever to grace the RDS.
There’s no need to go on, because we all know this. We’ve all seen the French support, and we all know how much the fans value the Bouclier, and how attached they are to their club teams. The idea that Perpignan could learn a thing or two from the Irish pishun is ludicrous. Maybe we could teach them to cook, make wine and dress stylishly while we’re at it?
We’re entitled to be pleased with the state of Irish rugby, but this sort of smugness has no place. The Bouclier de Brennus has been contested since 1892, quickly took on the character of village against village, providing an outlet for the denizens of Albi, Dax, Carcassonne and Aix similar to that which soccer provides in the north of England. Domestic Fench rugby has a tribal ferocity to this day.
Perhaps Gerry should watch the video of Pere Harinordoquy taking to the pitch to fight some Bayonnais forwards in the recently contested Basque derby. Speaking of which, the bi-annual match-up between Bayonne and Biarritz is considered the single most intense rivalry in European rugger. It’s a longstanding one too – while we can’t be entirely sure, we think it might even pre-date the Heineken Cup semi-final in 2006.
So … that was the World Cup that was. New Zealand, the best team in the tournament, won it, but lost the final. A monumental choke didn’t cost them because of an absolutely shameful performance from Joubert. Example: on 76 minutes, the following happened:
Jerome Kaino leaps over a ruck and grabs the ball. Cue French demands for a penalty
Joubert: Leave it!
Kaino throws the ball back on the French side
Joubert: Ball is out!
NZ compete and ultimately force a knock on
Appalling. We have no desire to harp on about refereeing, but its really not acceptable. Anyway, we aren’t here to talk about Craig Joubert, we are here to talk about New Zealand.
So, they are a brilliant side, but they aren’t that good when forced to manage with Andy Ellis and Beaver at half-back – not that surprising – how would Ireland fare with Isaac Boss and Niall O’Connor pulling the reins?
Here at Whiff of Cordite, we think there was only one other side apart from France capable of beating the Blacks – the mighty Springboks. The rest of the Northern Hemisphere sides would have supinely surrendered, and we saw how easily the Wallabies were swatted aside in the semi-final.
With South Africa, you can be assured of 80 minutes of high intensity and physicality. You can also be certain that, like France, they genuinely believe they can beat New Zealand, and will plan accordingly.
“What If?” scenario 1 is an obvious one, that South Africa managed to turn territory into points against Australia, and go through to a semi-final, but we thinking the more interesting one is below, as later was better to play New Zealand.
This scenario goes back over 6 weeks, to September 11, when a late Francois Hougaard try helped the Boks squeeze out Wales 17-16. We’re not sure if we can get it down to one moment – P Divvy deciding to keep faith with the underperforming Bryan Habana maybe – but lets say Wales managed to close out the game – how would the tournament have panned out?
On the Kiwi side of the draw, we don’t see much impact – even if Wales managed to beat Australia (which they didn’t last Friday), they would not have beaten New Zealand. In the top half, South Africa would have been pitted against Ireland. There is a reasonable chance Ireland would not have been as sloppy as they were against Wales if faced by dark green jerseys, but the performance was way below what was required to beat the Boks – SA victory.
Next round, its France. And it isn’t France of the final, its France of the semi-final – who, to be brutally fair, were desperate. Save Heinrich Broussow being rightly red carded for a tip tackle on Vincent Clerc in the 17th minute by the half-French and arrogant (copyright Barnesy) Alain Rolland, the Boks would have done it.
Now it’s the final – and the New Zealand nerves are starting to jangle. Your average South African rugby man does not have an inferiority complex regarding anyone, never mind the black shirt, and the ferocity and clarity of purpose shown by France would most likely have been replicated.
On the other hand, France have dimensions that South Africa don’t – you don’t need to worry about Morne Steyn breaking the line and looking to offload the way Francois Trinh-Duc did – but the manner of the New Zealand collective panic gives South Africa a chance.
And, finally, the trump card. Picture the scene – 76 minutes have gone, New Zealand are a point up but South Africa have possession, it’s a ruck about 35 metres from the NZ posts. Jermone Kaino leaps over the ruck and grabs the ball. Instead of “Leave It”, you hear “Penalty Green”. Craig Joubert, watching in the stand, leaps up and cheers – Alain Rolland has just awarded his fellow countrymen a penalty 35 metres out, with 4 minutes to go, and the most reliable goal-kicker in the world has the ball in his hands……
You could almost hear an entire nation sigh in relief. Just as Ireland with the Grand Slam in 2009, New Zealand choked utterly, but still had enough in them to get the monkey off their back. They completely lost their way in attack, became clueless, rudderless and allowed themselves to be dragged down to the level of the rest of the world, but defended magnificently, their heroic captain Richie McCaw to the fore.
Huge credit goes to France, and in particular their two masters of back row play, Thierry Dusatoir and Imaonl Harinordoquy. Dusatoir entered the pantheon of rugby greats yesterday, if he wasn’t there already, while Harinordoquy showed himself to be the world’s greatest lineout forward, and he’s not even a second row. They were the only team in the tournament capable of matching the Kiwis both for physicality and skill. South Africa bring a physical challege, the Aussies have the skillset, but only France, on their day, can provide both. Their magnificence was one in the eye for the likes of Stuart Barnes, who wrote a lot of nonsense about them last week.
The game itself followed a familiar pattern. Rugby is a relatively simple game – and the adage that forwards win matches and backs decide by how much is a useful starting point. How do forwards win matches? By manfacturing pressure, by dictating the terms of the set pieces and the breakdown, all of which forces thier opponents into mistakes. These mistakes under pressure, in the normal course of events, are penalized by the referee, and the team on top uses these penalties to get increase territorial superiority, and ultimately score a try, or 3 points from the kicking tee. As the team on top gets further ahead, the side under the cosh must take more risks and attempt to score from less advantageous field position, giving the team on top some gaps to play at.
However, for all France’s dominance on Sunday, the cycle above was broken by the referee not rewarding their superiority. Craig Joubert did not make any outrageous home town decisions, but the pattern was clear right throughout the 80 minutes, and it was to the detriment of France. We don’t want to harp on about refereeing (although our muse Gerry is now basically a referee-moaning vehicle), but it decided the game and the destination of the trophy. Rugby needs at least the appearance of probity, and the selection of a referee for a final based on an assessment process which seems to favour one side above another is clearly sub-optimal. Just ask Spreaders how his career went after the opening game of RWC07 – why would Craig Joubert disadvantage his own career by pinging NZ off the park? The process is the problem.
But New Zealand deserve a huge amount of praise for their efforts. As we noted previously, they had to beat, not only their opponent but the weight of history too. And they had to do it not just without Dan Carter, but with the sixth best New Zealand outhalf (Donald was fourth choice, and Evans and McAllister are obviously superior). For Ireland to find themelves in such a position, it would mean Niall O’Connor seeing out the match. We were left with the extraordinary sight of a man coming on with so little confidence invested in him, that his team almost refused to give him the ball. And yet it fell to this very fellow to knock over the crucial penalty. You have to hand it to Beaver, and he had the grace to laugh on the podium when the camera was on him. They say you’re only as good as you’re weakest link and in this case he was able to knock over a simple, but pressurised penalty from in front of the posts. Sometimes, in sport, that’s good enough.
